Draft Strategy for Dynasty Startups (1 Viewer)

[eaglesfan7]

I wanted to get some thoughts on strategies for dynasty startups. I used to draft the best player possible throughout most of the draft but changed my ways somewhat and wanted to see how it compares to others.

First 4 or 5 rounds:

I'll pretty much draft whoever falls to me at RB or WR. Owners usually draft players they like or want so I'll take whoever they pass over. A good example is Ray Rice falling to the late first round in most startups this year. People pass on players and I snatch them up.

I never draft a quarterback. A majority of leagues only start 1 qb and 2 running backs and 2 or 3 wide receivers so with 32 teams in the NFL quality quarterbacks can be had from the sixth round on.

I take best player available between running backs and wide receivers, especially if it's ppr.

I never draft a tight end unless it's Finley or Gates sitting there for me in the 4th or 5th round. Tight ends are just like quarterbacks in that most leagues start one and the position is extremely deep (i realize some leagues can start 2 and have different ppr scoring, this is considering start 1 and standard ppr). Grabbing fairly young players like Dustin Keller and Brent Celek and playing the best matchup is my preferred method of play.

Rounds 6 to 10:

This is where I switch from best player available to drafting upside unless a great value falls to me. I'll grab as many rookies or second year players as possible that appear to have a bright future in the NFL. Don't get me wrong, if a great value is present I will pass on the upside pick and draft the value of course.

These rounds are usually where I search for my quarterback. I'll try to land a guy like Schaub, Stafford, Eli, Cutler, Flacco or Matt Ryan. Ryans' ADP is rising this season so he is probably unavailable at this point and it gives me more reason to wait and draft the upside picks.

Rounds 11 to 15:

This is where I usually grab my tight end if I didn't find a value in the earlier rounds. So many guys available at this point like Aaron Hernandez, Keller, Celek, Cooley, Marcedes Lewis, Kellen Winslow and Moeaki among others. These represent tremendous value picks to me since the position is so deep.

I also build depth in these rounds to make sure I have injury replacements and backups at the skill positions.

Rounds 16 to 20:

Most dynasty leagues go beyond 20 rounds but to keep this short lets just say these are the last four rounds.

Time to grab my defenses and a kicker. I never draft a kicker until the last round.

What ways does your draft strategy differ?

 

[Dragon1952]

I played in 15 leagues last year and the champion of each had both a top 10 QB and a top 10 TE. Eleven of those teams had at least a top 7 QB, and 11 teams also had at least a top 6 TE or combination of Gates/Tamme. None of them had a Celek or Keller. Two teams did have Schaub and one had Ryan as their primary QB's, but all three had a top 5 TE or Tamme. Personally I like a strong QB/TE combination. Especially since the TE position cost me 2 championships in 2009, I have made it a goal to get a TE that could actually score consistent points. I've lost too many 5 pt games because of weakness at TE like with an Olsen, Boss, Heath Miller or John Stinkin' Carlson.

 

[DexterDew]

TE can be a frustrating position if you do not have a true week in and week out starter. Scouring the WW hoping it is the week that Watson or Olsen or Hernandez get some throws... In dynasty, I want a difference maker at TE, but don't want to pay the going rate for Finley or Gates. Players like Clark or Z Miller are nice players since they are #1 o 2 options on their team.

At QB, you can play the match up game a little bit more (thank you HOU D!), but I want to have a couple healthy QBs with talent around them for upside. If you insist on missing out on the big 6 (Brady, Brees, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers or Vick), I would draft a QB right after they are gone so you have a Roth, Romo or Schaub. And while you can start Ryan or Flacco every week, their ceiling is pretty much the Big 6's floor... and if you think about it, the Big 6 is half the league, so if you don't have one of them, you better have a WR2, RB2, Flex or TE that is a difference maker.

Just a few thoughts going on inside my head. YMMV.

 

[Go deep]

I wanted to get some thoughts on strategies for dynasty startups. I used to draft the best player possible throughout [/quote]

This is the only rule or strategy i find myself really using. Im not a big fan of drafting QB early, but if Rodgers makes it to my 2.5 pick, he will be on my team. I prefer to go good young, slightly proven WR's early, because they are safe with plenty of upside and longevity. I would prefer to come away with at least 1 RB in the first 4-5 rounds, but i wont reach for one to do so.

Most importantly, the thing i wont do in a start up is draft players even close to being considered old. The worst thing that can happen in the first year of a dynasty league is to finish around .500 and have a team of veterans getting one year older. I would basically have any RB over the age of 26, any WR over the age of 28 and QB's over 31-32 crossed off my list.

 

[Dragon1952]

I love Roethlisberger as late as he's been going. He was on pace for QB #7 last year and in 7 start-ups I've looked at this year he's been the # 7, 7, 8, 10, 10, 11 and 11th QB taken.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Draft young stud/potential studs as the foundation of my roster in the first 6 or so rounds. After that go BPA. You can often take a young WR who may be a year or two away from taking off and then just patch that with a Derrick Mason type later on.

 

[HPD]

I was going to comment on the 48 round Dynasty IDP PPR DLF League I'm currently involved in but its not relevant to a 20 round draft. But if you'd like to check out the draft you can follow this link

http://www33.myfantasyleague.com/2011/home/58307#0

 

[eaglesfan7]

I was going to comment on the 48 round Dynasty IDP PPR DLF League I'm currently involved in but its not relevant to a 20 round draft. But if you'd like to check out the draft you can follow this link

http://www33.myfantasyleague.com/2011/home/58307#0

I said 20 rounds just to keep the post from dragging on. I realize most startups are 25 rounds or more. I'll check out your draft though, thanks.

 

[zilladog]

I played in 15 leagues last year and the champion of each had both a top 10 QB and a top 10 TE. Eleven of those teams had at least a top 7 QB, and 11 teams also had at least a top 6 TE or combination of Gates/Tamme. None of them had a Celek or Keller. Two teams did have Schaub and one had Ryan as their primary QB's, but all three had a top 5 TE or Tamme. Personally I like a strong QB/TE combination. Especially since the TE position cost me 2 championships in 2009, I have made it a goal to get a TE that could actually score consistent points. I've lost too many 5 pt games because of weakness at TE like with an Olsen, Boss, Heath Miller or John Stinkin' Carlson.

I just gotta rant here. SorryThis hit the nail on the head imo. Great thread by the way. I feel like you absolutely MUST come out of round 1 with a QB, and pair him with an elite TE by the end of round 4. But dont be afraid to reach in round 3 for a TE. As soon as Gates or Finley goes off the board in round 3, you gotta make your next pick the other guy. If you're unlucky and both are gone then reach on Davis/Witten/Clark. I get that it's a rigid approach and many disagree but from all the lessons I've learned and research I've done, its imperative. The simple reason for it is supply and demand. This includes NON-PPR (its all I play).

IMO There are 6 elite QB's (Manning, Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Rivers) with 2 on the cusp (Romo, Big Ben). There are 4/5 elite TE's (Gates, Finley, Davis, clark, Witten), With Graham as a young talented crapshoot. And considering the age of some of these guys it may be even less in a year or two. Landing one QB and TE from this list in a startup dynasty is a foundation that you can always build around and be competitive every week.

Why not a RB in round 1? especially in non-ppr? well let's do a little exercise. everyone take out your rankings. Now cross off the top 24 guys (for a 12 team league) or 28 (in a 14) etc... You won't likely get any of these guys using this approach. Now look at who's left. Where is Fred Jackson on that list? Thomas Jones? Joe McKnight? Mike Goodson? James Starks? Pierre Thomas? Brandon jacobs? Felix jones? C.J. Spiller? Joe Addai?Likely most of these guys (and many more) are still on your list. Sure, none of those names make your mouth water but they all can be startable and on most weeks score very decently for you. while still having young talent for the future.

The biggest problem with RB in round 1 is that you almost HAVE to go rb in rounds 2 and 3 aswell. The idea being that if your going to pass on an elite QB or elite TE then you have to be DOMINANT at RB in order to gain an every week advantage. Having A.P. in rd 1 and some decent schmuck in rd 3 and then some less decent schmuck in round 4/5/6 just won't cut it. A RB core like that can be good but it isn't all that hard to compete with. In order to gain true dominance at RB you either have to get lucky in the mid/late rounds with Arian Foster types or grab 3 studs in the first 3 rounds. Otherwise the Fred Jacksons of the world will score right along side your Round 1 stud. Meanwhile, You passed on QB and TE and WR in order to get 1/2 stud RB's who had great "value" or whatever. Most weeks, if your RB's don't crush it, your Joe Flacco ain't gonna compete well against thier Aaron Rodgers, and your in trouble.

Now take this strategy (QB rd 1, TE by end of Rd 4) and add 2 good WR's in Rd 2/3. While everyone struggles to get that elite RB there, you build a solid, young WR core for years to come. Because here's where it gets awsome.....I call it "the flip". By the end of round 4, most teams will have gotten 2 starting RB's (from that top 24 list) and either 1/2 WR's, or 1 QB and a WR. This means that most teams still need starters at either WR or QB or TE. This leaves almost all of those Rb's for you to pick and choose. After round 4 is when you "flip" to RB, because its unlikely many teams will be drafting RB depth before a starting QB or WR or TE. At this point you can take 3/4/ or even 5 RB's that you can play matchups with to compete with the guy who came out of round 4 with A.P., J.Stew, and Matt Forte.

Just my thoughts.

 

[eaglesfan7]

I played in 15 leagues last year and the champion of each had both a top 10 QB and a top 10 TE. Eleven of those teams had at least a top 7 QB, and 11 teams also had at least a top 6 TE or combination of Gates/Tamme. None of them had a Celek or Keller. Two teams did have Schaub and one had Ryan as their primary QB's, but all three had a top 5 TE or Tamme. Personally I like a strong QB/TE combination. Especially since the TE position cost me 2 championships in 2009, I have made it a goal to get a TE that could actually score consistent points. I've lost too many 5 pt games because of weakness at TE like with an Olsen, Boss, Heath Miller or John Stinkin' Carlson.

I just gotta rant here. SorryThis hit the nail on the head imo. Great thread by the way. I feel like you absolutely MUST come out of round 1 with a QB, and pair him with an elite TE by the end of round 4. But dont be afraid to reach in round 3 for a TE. As soon as Gates or Finley goes off the board in round 3, you gotta make your next pick the other guy. If you're unlucky and both are gone then reach on Davis/Witten/Clark. I get that it's a rigid approach and many disagree but from all the lessons I've learned and research I've done, its imperative. The simple reason for it is supply and demand. This includes NON-PPR (its all I play).

IMO There are 6 elite QB's (Manning, Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Rivers) with 2 on the cusp (Romo, Big Ben). There are 4/5 elite TE's (Gates, Finley, Davis, clark, Witten), With Graham as a young talented crapshoot. And considering the age of some of these guys it may be even less in a year or two. Landing one QB and TE from this list in a startup dynasty is a foundation that you can always build around and be competitive every week.

Why not a RB in round 1? especially in non-ppr? well let's do a little exercise. everyone take out your rankings. Now cross off the top 24 guys (for a 12 team league) or 28 (in a 14) etc... You won't likely get any of these guys using this approach. Now look at who's left. Where is Fred Jackson on that list? Thomas Jones? Joe McKnight? Mike Goodson? James Starks? Pierre Thomas? Brandon jacobs? Felix jones? C.J. Spiller? Joe Addai?Likely most of these guys (and many more) are still on your list. Sure, none of those names make your mouth water but they all can be startable and on most weeks score very decently for you. while still having young talent for the future.

The biggest problem with RB in round 1 is that you almost HAVE to go rb in rounds 2 and 3 aswell. The idea being that if your going to pass on an elite QB or elite TE then you have to be DOMINANT at RB in order to gain an every week advantage. Having A.P. in rd 1 and some decent schmuck in rd 3 and then some less decent schmuck in round 4/5/6 just won't cut it. A RB core like that can be good but it isn't all that hard to compete with. In order to gain true dominance at RB you either have to get lucky in the mid/late rounds with Arian Foster types or grab 3 studs in the first 3 rounds. Otherwise the Fred Jacksons of the world will score right along side your Round 1 stud. Meanwhile, You passed on QB and TE and WR in order to get 1/2 stud RB's who had great "value" or whatever. Most weeks, if your RB's don't crush it, your Joe Flacco ain't gonna compete well against thier Aaron Rodgers, and your in trouble.

Now take this strategy (QB rd 1, TE by end of Rd 4) and add 2 good WR's in Rd 2/3. While everyone struggles to get that elite RB there, you build a solid, young WR core for years to come. Because here's where it gets awsome.....I call it "the flip". By the end of round 4, most teams will have gotten 2 starting RB's (from that top 24 list) and either 1/2 WR's, or 1 QB and a WR. This means that most teams still need starters at either WR or QB or TE. This leaves almost all of those Rb's for you to pick and choose. After round 4 is when you "flip" to RB, because its unlikely many teams will be drafting RB depth before a starting QB or WR or TE. At this point you can take 3/4/ or even 5 RB's that you can play matchups with to compete with the guy who came out of round 4 with A.P., J.Stew, and Matt Forte.

Just my thoughts.

Zilladog,

I appreciate the thoughts and I like different takes on strategy.

I'm sure there are many examples of leagues won with elite tight ends and quarterbacks but there are also examples of leagues won without the elite qb's and tight ends. In one dynasty league I participate in the winner had David Garrard and Kellen Winslow starting. I won a dynasty league last season with Jacob Tamme whom I grabbed off the waiver wire after JerMichael Finley was hurt. I love Finley but he went down and I thought my season was over. I grabbed Tamme when Dallas Clark was injured and the rest is history. My brother won his dynasty league with Tamme starting.

And one poster said of the 15 leagues he has participated in all the winners had a top 10 qb and top 10 te. You can easily get a top ten qb or te in the mid-to-late rounds (6 thru 10) imo.

Good thoughts though, keep em coming.

 

[zilladog]

I played in 15 leagues last year and the champion of each had both a top 10 QB and a top 10 TE. Eleven of those teams had at least a top 7 QB, and 11 teams also had at least a top 6 TE or combination of Gates/Tamme. None of them had a Celek or Keller. Two teams did have Schaub and one had Ryan as their primary QB's, but all three had a top 5 TE or Tamme. Personally I like a strong QB/TE combination. Especially since the TE position cost me 2 championships in 2009, I have made it a goal to get a TE that could actually score consistent points. I've lost too many 5 pt games because of weakness at TE like with an Olsen, Boss, Heath Miller or John Stinkin' Carlson.

I just gotta rant here. SorryThis hit the nail on the head imo. Great thread by the way. I feel like you absolutely MUST come out of round 1 with a QB, and pair him with an elite TE by the end of round 4. But dont be afraid to reach in round 3 for a TE. As soon as Gates or Finley goes off the board in round 3, you gotta make your next pick the other guy. If you're unlucky and both are gone then reach on Davis/Witten/Clark. I get that it's a rigid approach and many disagree but from all the lessons I've learned and research I've done, its imperative. The simple reason for it is supply and demand. This includes NON-PPR (its all I play).

IMO There are 6 elite QB's (Manning, Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Rivers) with 2 on the cusp (Romo, Big Ben). There are 4/5 elite TE's (Gates, Finley, Davis, clark, Witten), With Graham as a young talented crapshoot. And considering the age of some of these guys it may be even less in a year or two. Landing one QB and TE from this list in a startup dynasty is a foundation that you can always build around and be competitive every week.

Why not a RB in round 1? especially in non-ppr? well let's do a little exercise. everyone take out your rankings. Now cross off the top 24 guys (for a 12 team league) or 28 (in a 14) etc... You won't likely get any of these guys using this approach. Now look at who's left. Where is Fred Jackson on that list? Thomas Jones? Joe McKnight? Mike Goodson? James Starks? Pierre Thomas? Brandon jacobs? Felix jones? C.J. Spiller? Joe Addai?Likely most of these guys (and many more) are still on your list. Sure, none of those names make your mouth water but they all can be startable and on most weeks score very decently for you. while still having young talent for the future.

The biggest problem with RB in round 1 is that you almost HAVE to go rb in rounds 2 and 3 aswell. The idea being that if your going to pass on an elite QB or elite TE then you have to be DOMINANT at RB in order to gain an every week advantage. Having A.P. in rd 1 and some decent schmuck in rd 3 and then some less decent schmuck in round 4/5/6 just won't cut it. A RB core like that can be good but it isn't all that hard to compete with. In order to gain true dominance at RB you either have to get lucky in the mid/late rounds with Arian Foster types or grab 3 studs in the first 3 rounds. Otherwise the Fred Jacksons of the world will score right along side your Round 1 stud. Meanwhile, You passed on QB and TE and WR in order to get 1/2 stud RB's who had great "value" or whatever. Most weeks, if your RB's don't crush it, your Joe Flacco ain't gonna compete well against thier Aaron Rodgers, and your in trouble.

Now take this strategy (QB rd 1, TE by end of Rd 4) and add 2 good WR's in Rd 2/3. While everyone struggles to get that elite RB there, you build a solid, young WR core for years to come. Because here's where it gets awsome.....I call it "the flip". By the end of round 4, most teams will have gotten 2 starting RB's (from that top 24 list) and either 1/2 WR's, or 1 QB and a WR. This means that most teams still need starters at either WR or QB or TE. This leaves almost all of those Rb's for you to pick and choose. After round 4 is when you "flip" to RB, because its unlikely many teams will be drafting RB depth before a starting QB or WR or TE. At this point you can take 3/4/ or even 5 RB's that you can play matchups with to compete with the guy who came out of round 4 with A.P., J.Stew, and Matt Forte.

Just my thoughts.

Zilladog,

I appreciate the thoughts and I like different takes on strategy.

I'm sure there are many examples of leagues won with elite tight ends and quarterbacks but there are also examples of leagues won without the elite qb's and tight ends. In one dynasty league I participate in the winner had David Garrard and Kellen Winslow starting. I won a dynasty league last season with Jacob Tamme whom I grabbed off the waiver wire after JerMichael Finley was hurt. I love Finley but he went down and I thought my season was over. I grabbed Tamme when Dallas Clark was injured and the rest is history. My brother won his dynasty league with Tamme starting.

And one poster said of the 15 leagues he has participated in all the winners had a top 10 qb and top 10 te. You can easily get a top ten qb or te in the mid-to-late rounds (6 thru 10) imo.

Good thoughts though, keep em coming.

I'm certainly not suggesting that my strategy is the "only" successful one. Of course there are many ways to win a league. I was only saying that I feel it's the "best" strategy for building a stable roster that will have years of consistency. The interesting thing about guys who grabbed Tamme or Kyle Orton off the WW and other such players is that when Tamme and Orton were playing, they were scoring amongst the elite, which I feel just supports the idea that elite QB's and TE's are important to own. Guys break out every year, we all know this. Maybe getting Stafford or Freeman or Bradford later can give you an elite QB, but the point remains that elite QB numbers win. All I'm suggesting is that it seems so much better to not have to guess at who those guys will be or whteher you can win them off the WW when they do emerge. It's just simply better just to get the guy with the proven track record and then use your middle picks on emerging RB talent. In dynasty we should obviously always be looking for the next breakout talent. Just because you have Rodgers doesn't mean you should let the next great QB sit on the WW.If you're gonna go RB early, then go all out imo. Lots of owners will have good RB's, so if you're gonna use RB as your biggest position of strength, then get them early and make sure you can't be beat there.....even though the guy who got Peyton Hillis or Blount or DMC or Foster off waivers was likely just as good as you.

 

[Riffraff]

Not all inclusive, but my targets for an inaugural draft: Young RBs (over-valued), middle aged QBs (undervalued), middle to old aged TEs (average value), and old WRs (undervalued). Can compete for the championship from the get go.

Misinformation:

1. Youth is king. Only if you have two comparable talents, then you choose the younger guy.

2. Youth is king. Shiny new toys rule the fantasy world. Wrong, they usually cause you to NOT field the most competitive line-up. I'd even say having the shiniest new toy team sets you back many years since you are always waiting on the potential to become production. Basically, you are the league's minor league squad that we pick off the "no longer shiny and new" guys from. Great trade bait team.

3. Go for all youth in the inaugural draft. Meh. A well balanced team usually does so much better for building a true dynasty. The point is to win championships. Multiple championships. Starting with year 1... Take some guys that put you in the position to accomplish the goal.

4. Fire sales turn teams around. Rarely have I found the complete fire sale to work. Takes years to recover and all the new shiny toys have to pan out or you are still a middling to nothing of a team. I'd rather restock and add a few pieces each year to remain competitive.

5. The best looking pre-season team is the team to beat. Probably not, but at least you got your ego stroked. Way too many pre-season favorites end up as average and also-rans. Pretty much why nobody likes "rate my team" posts. Good on pre-season paper (or pixels) doesn't really correlate to good on paper/pixels in weeks 14-16.

6. Old is a fantasy killer and will haunt you forever. Wrong. Dynasty FF is not in a vacuum. You don't have the same team from now until eternity. You have future draft picks. You can trade. You have free agency waivers. Restock some young guys behind the old guys. The young guys become old guys if they are lucky. Rinse and repeat.

7. Sell, sell, sell the old studs! If you are a good drafter and/or trader, you can restock behind the guy. If you are a contender, you have the goal in sight with the old stud. It's okay to have the guy retire off your squad. No really, it's okay. The championship banners back it up. I'd rather have a championship winning stud retire on me than to come in 2nd thru 6th because I took less starter points just to unload the guy. Took my sights off the goal didn't I? Crap!

 

[B Maverick]

Unless I missed it noted above, noone has mentioned what to me is the most important factor in drafting in ANY league... THE RULES.

I made this mistake in my dynasty startup a few years ago. What are your starting lineup requirements and scoring rules? For example, start 2 QBs and everything changes. TD Passes worth 2 points where a rushing td is 6 changes my draft strategy.

Maybe I am stating the obvious here?

 

[eaglesfan7]

Unless I missed it noted above, noone has mentioned what to me is the most important factor in drafting in ANY league... THE RULES.I made this mistake in my dynasty startup a few years ago. What are your starting lineup requirements and scoring rules? For example, start 2 QBs and everything changes. TD Passes worth 2 points where a rushing td is 6 changes my draft strategy.Maybe I am stating the obvious here?

B Mav,We're willing to hear strategies on all different kinds of scoring systems. On the original post it was based on all touchdowns being 6 points and standard lineups like 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE and a Flex. But hearing different strategies for different scoring systems is good too.

 

[JPeso]

4. Fire sales turn teams around. Rarely have I found the complete fire sale to work. Takes years to recover and all the new shiny toys have to pan out or you are still a middling to nothing of a team. I'd rather restock and add a few pieces each year to remain competitive.

I know this not to be true if handled appropriately. Again, you don't just go after the word "youth," as there are plenty of youthful guys overvalued in dynasty that will never contribute that I find myself boggled at their market value, but when you couple youth with an eye for talent plus have a decent ability to weight a % of attainability of the "new toys" ceiling and conversely understand the player's floor, things can and will work out.I understand your point that, on average, it doesn't work and most owners would be better off trying to move there 6th best team to the 4th best team by adding a cheap starter on the back-end of his career instead of rebuilding, but I most certainly do not believe rebuilding is even improbable if you know what you are doing.I also don't think it takes more than one year if done right - a year is plenty. And no, I don't mean by getting lucky.

 

[Riffraff]

4. Fire sales turn teams around. Rarely have I found the complete fire sale to work. Takes years to recover and all the new shiny toys have to pan out or you are still a middling to nothing of a team. I'd rather restock and add a few pieces each year to remain competitive.

I know this not to be true if handled appropriately. Again, you don't just go after the word "youth," as there are plenty of youthful guys overvalued in dynasty that will never contribute that I find myself boggled at their market value, but when you couple youth with an eye for talent plus have a decent ability to weight a % of attainability of the "new toys" ceiling and conversely understand the player's floor, things can and will work out.I understand your point that, on average, it doesn't work and most owners would be better off trying to move there 6th best team to the 4th best team by adding a cheap starter on the back-end of his career instead of rebuilding, but I most certainly do not believe rebuilding is even improbable if you know what you are doing.I also don't think it takes more than one year if done right - a year is plenty. And no, I don't mean by getting lucky.

I agree that it can happen, just it's rare from my point of view. I'm sure the vast majority of owners think they know what they are doing, but it usually turns out to be only a small minority that do. Year in and year out. I usually see the majority of rebuilding owners in a perpetual rebuild.A self evaluation of what you are good at is needed. Not everyone is a great drafter, or trader, or waiver wire scout, or all of the above. Stick to what you are good at and you can make positive change.

 

[Riffraff]

Unless I missed it noted above, noone has mentioned what to me is the most important factor in drafting in ANY league... THE RULES.

So true and should be rule #1 for everyone.

 

[thriftyrocker]

The problem with fire sales is when guys decide they will sell long term value for picks. Unloading Calvin Johnson for 4 picks is not going to turn your team around, yet I've seen it happen several times. If you think a stud WR under 30 (from Calvin to Fitz to Miles to Jennings) or pretty much any elite QB won't still be relevant when your team finally starts winning, you are admitting you'll be a perpetual rebuilder. Now if you have a bad team and have Steven Jackson, Gore, Wayne, Gates, or even a 26 yo stud RB (not naming names) then you gotta blow it up.

 

[pretender]

.

 

[Go deep]

Not all inclusive, but my targets for an inaugural draft: Young RBs (over-valued), middle aged QBs (undervalued), middle to old aged TEs (average value), and old WRs (undervalued). Can compete for the championship from the get go.

Misinformation:

1. Youth is king. Only if you have two comparable talents, then you choose the younger guy.

2. Youth is king. Shiny new toys rule the fantasy world. Wrong, they usually cause you to NOT field the most competitive line-up. I'd even say having the shiniest new toy team sets you back many years since you are always waiting on the potential to become production. Basically, you are the league's minor league squad that we pick off the "no longer shiny and new" guys from. Great trade bait team.

3. Go for all youth in the inaugural draft. Meh. A well balanced team usually does so much better for building a true dynasty. The point is to win championships. Multiple championships. Starting with year 1... Take some guys that put you in the position to accomplish the goal.

4. Fire sales turn teams around. Rarely have I found the complete fire sale to work. Takes years to recover and all the new shiny toys have to pan out or you are still a middling to nothing of a team. I'd rather restock and add a few pieces each year to remain competitive.

5. The best looking pre-season team is the team to beat. Probably not, but at least you got your ego stroked. Way too many pre-season favorites end up as average and also-rans. Pretty much why nobody likes "rate my team" posts. Good on pre-season paper (or pixels) doesn't really correlate to good on paper/pixels in weeks 14-16.

6. Old is a fantasy killer and will haunt you forever. Wrong. Dynasty FF is not in a vacuum. You don't have the same team from now until eternity. You have future draft picks. You can trade. You have free agency waivers. Restock some young guys behind the old guys. The young guys become old guys if they are lucky. Rinse and repeat.

7. Sell, sell, sell the old studs! If you are a good drafter and/or trader, you can restock behind the guy. If you are a contender, you have the goal in sight with the old stud. It's okay to have the guy retire off your squad. No really, it's okay. The championship banners back it up. I'd rather have a championship winning stud retire on me than to come in 2nd thru 6th because I took less starter points just to unload the guy. Took my sights off the goal didn't I? Crap!

Who says keeping that old guy guaratees you a championship and not having him means you cant win one? What if i am deep at WR and can get a top 3 pick for Reggie Wayne? You say you can let old guys retire on your team, and you also say you can restock your team with draft picks and trade. Who are you going to trade though and what are the odds of hitting a good player with a late frst pick. Sure, you can trade your 1.10 pick, but what are you really going to get for it? If youre thin enough at WR where you cant afford to trade Reggie Wayne at the deadline for younger players/picks, how are you going to replace him in a year or two when Wayne is done.

What you are saying here is great in theory, but you have to trade something good to get something good, at least if you are in a league with good owners.

I dont think there is any right or wrong way to run a dynasty team, its not that somethings work and others dont, its the owner who is doing those things that makes it work or not.

 

[zilladog]

I thought this was a thread about draft strategy? When did it become a "when to trade your old guy" thread?

 

[Go deep]

I thought this was a thread about draft strategy? When did it become a "when to trade your old guy" thread?

They kind of go hand in hand, dont they?

 

[eaglesfan7]

Trades are an important part of draft strategy. If you don't take advantage of trading you're missing out.

 

[JPeso]

Not all inclusive, but my targets for an inaugural draft: Young RBs (over-valued), middle aged QBs (undervalued), middle to old aged TEs (average value), and old WRs (undervalued). Can compete for the championship from the get go.

Misinformation:

1. Youth is king. Only if you have two comparable talents, then you choose the younger guy.

2. Youth is king. Shiny new toys rule the fantasy world. Wrong, they usually cause you to NOT field the most competitive line-up. I'd even say having the shiniest new toy team sets you back many years since you are always waiting on the potential to become production. Basically, you are the league's minor league squad that we pick off the "no longer shiny and new" guys from. Great trade bait team.

3. Go for all youth in the inaugural draft. Meh. A well balanced team usually does so much better for building a true dynasty. The point is to win championships. Multiple championships. Starting with year 1... Take some guys that put you in the position to accomplish the goal.

4. Fire sales turn teams around. Rarely have I found the complete fire sale to work. Takes years to recover and all the new shiny toys have to pan out or you are still a middling to nothing of a team. I'd rather restock and add a few pieces each year to remain competitive.

5. The best looking pre-season team is the team to beat. Probably not, but at least you got your ego stroked. Way too many pre-season favorites end up as average and also-rans. Pretty much why nobody likes "rate my team" posts. Good on pre-season paper (or pixels) doesn't really correlate to good on paper/pixels in weeks 14-16.

6. Old is a fantasy killer and will haunt you forever. Wrong. Dynasty FF is not in a vacuum. You don't have the same team from now until eternity. You have future draft picks. You can trade. You have free agency waivers. Restock some young guys behind the old guys. The young guys become old guys if they are lucky. Rinse and repeat.

7. Sell, sell, sell the old studs! If you are a good drafter and/or trader, you can restock behind the guy. If you are a contender, you have the goal in sight with the old stud. It's okay to have the guy retire off your squad. No really, it's okay. The championship banners back it up. I'd rather have a championship winning stud retire on me than to come in 2nd thru 6th because I took less starter points just to unload the guy. Took my sights off the goal didn't I? Crap!

Who says keeping that old guy guarantees you a championship and not having him means you cant win one? What if i am deep at WR and can get a top 3 pick for Reggie Wayne?

Agreed but...You have to time buys and sells and win trades at a handsome clip (can't win them all though!) as to stay youthful to avoid ever rebuilding (maybe I'm gullible, but I always expect my dynasties to LAST, I hate to lose something I build) yet always remaining competitive - this is it, folks.

 

[zilladog]

I thought this was a thread about draft strategy? When did it become a "when to trade your old guy" thread?

They kind of go hand in hand, dont they?

Sorry. Let me rephrase that. I thought this was a STARTUP dynasty trade thread? It would be implied that you have no old guys to trade. that said, let's keep going with the old guy stuff. How soon would you folks be willing to grab Michael Turner in a startp dynasty? How about Gore? In what round does a guy like Thomas Jones become a "value pick"? How about L.T.?See how that fits nicely with the topic?

 

[Go deep]

I thought this was a thread about draft strategy? When did it become a "when to trade your old guy" thread?

They kind of go hand in hand, dont they?

Sorry. Let me rephrase that. I thought this was a STARTUP dynasty trade thread? It would be implied that you have no old guys to trade. that said, let's keep going with the old guy stuff. How soon would you folks be willing to grab Michael Turner in a startp dynasty? How about Gore? In what round does a guy like Thomas Jones become a "value pick"? How about L.T.?See how that fits nicely with the topic?

I wouldnt take any of those guys. At least anywhere close to where they would get drafted by others.

 

[Dragon1952]

I thought this was a thread about draft strategy? When did it become a "when to trade your old guy" thread?

They kind of go hand in hand, dont they?

Sorry. Let me rephrase that. I thought this was a STARTUP dynasty trade thread? It would be implied that you have no old guys to trade. that said, let's keep going with the old guy stuff. How soon would you folks be willing to grab Michael Turner in a startp dynasty? How about Gore? In what round does a guy like Thomas Jones become a "value pick"? How about L.T.?See how that fits nicely with the topic?

I wouldnt take any of those guys. At least anywhere close to where they would get drafted by others.

I've had 2 start-ups this year and I got Gore at 2.10 in one and he went at 2.10 in the other also. Turner went at 3.6 in both. Those are both great value. I don't think I'd take Thomas Jones or LT in any round this year. I'd rather take a flyer on someone young.BTW, both drafts included 2011 rookies, and one also included devy's.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I've had 2 start-ups this year and I got Gore at 2.10 in one and he went at 2.10 in the other also. Turner went at 3.6 in both. Those are both great value. BTW, both drafts included 2011 rookies, and one also included devy's.

It's not great value. It's great value in redraft. It is a bad pick in a startup. I wouldn't touch Gore before the late 4th or Turner before the 6th in a 12 team draft like you're describing.

 

[eaglesfan7]

In my 2 latest startups Gore went at 3.11 (35 overall) and Turner was drafted at 6.04 (64 overall). The reason they go late is because they only have a couple seasons left of production and don't have much trade value except to championship contenders.

In the second startup Gore went at 2.07 (19 overall which is too early for my taste) and Turner went at 4.05 (41 overall).

 

[zilladog]

I've had 2 start-ups this year and I got Gore at 2.10 in one and he went at 2.10 in the other also. Turner went at 3.6 in both. Those are both great value. BTW, both drafts included 2011 rookies, and one also included devy's.

It's not great value. It's great value in redraft. It is a bad pick in a startup. I wouldn't touch Gore before the late 4th or Turner before the 6th in a 12 team draft like you're describing.

Thank you! This is exactly why there's almost no need to draft an RB in a startup dynasty before round 5 or so. Because these types of guys land in your lap. Sure, Gore and Turner probably aren't going to be on your team in a couple few years, but surely they'll be fine in 2011, right? At least RB2 numbers for at least a good portion of the year right? And that's the worst case scenario. Heading into 2010 if you had Turner and Gore as your 1/2, you were in fine shape and everyone knew it. Its very likely the same situation in 2011 and people are going to hand you these types of guys in the rd 4-6 range. Yeah you'll probably have to turn over those RBs sooner rather than later, but just keep your eyes open for new talent and you'll be fine.

 

[Dragon1952]

You can't draft all young guys just because it's a dynasty or just because they only have 2-3 yrs left. Geez, Gore's only 28 to start the season and he's liable to help someone win a championship this year. These other guys are taking the 1.1 rookie before him, or even a 2012 devy. I love it when I see that.

 

[Riffraff]

Not all inclusive, but my targets for an inaugural draft: Young RBs (over-valued), middle aged QBs (undervalued), middle to old aged TEs (average value), and old WRs (undervalued). Can compete for the championship from the get go.

Misinformation:

1. Youth is king. Only if you have two comparable talents, then you choose the younger guy.

2. Youth is king. Shiny new toys rule the fantasy world. Wrong, they usually cause you to NOT field the most competitive line-up. I'd even say having the shiniest new toy team sets you back many years since you are always waiting on the potential to become production. Basically, you are the league's minor league squad that we pick off the "no longer shiny and new" guys from. Great trade bait team.

3. Go for all youth in the inaugural draft. Meh. A well balanced team usually does so much better for building a true dynasty. The point is to win championships. Multiple championships. Starting with year 1... Take some guys that put you in the position to accomplish the goal.

4. Fire sales turn teams around. Rarely have I found the complete fire sale to work. Takes years to recover and all the new shiny toys have to pan out or you are still a middling to nothing of a team. I'd rather restock and add a few pieces each year to remain competitive.

5. The best looking pre-season team is the team to beat. Probably not, but at least you got your ego stroked. Way too many pre-season favorites end up as average and also-rans. Pretty much why nobody likes "rate my team" posts. Good on pre-season paper (or pixels) doesn't really correlate to good on paper/pixels in weeks 14-16.

6. Old is a fantasy killer and will haunt you forever. Wrong. Dynasty FF is not in a vacuum. You don't have the same team from now until eternity. You have future draft picks. You can trade. You have free agency waivers. Restock some young guys behind the old guys. The young guys become old guys if they are lucky. Rinse and repeat.

7. Sell, sell, sell the old studs! If you are a good drafter and/or trader, you can restock behind the guy. If you are a contender, you have the goal in sight with the old stud. It's okay to have the guy retire off your squad. No really, it's okay. The championship banners back it up. I'd rather have a championship winning stud retire on me than to come in 2nd thru 6th because I took less starter points just to unload the guy. Took my sights off the goal didn't I? Crap!

Who says keeping that old guy guaratees you a championship and not having him means you cant win one? What if i am deep at WR and can get a top 3 pick for Reggie Wayne? You say you can let old guys retire on your team, and you also say you can restock your team with draft picks and trade. Who are you going to trade though and what are the odds of hitting a good player with a late frst pick. Sure, you can trade your 1.10 pick, but what are you really going to get for it? If youre thin enough at WR where you cant afford to trade Reggie Wayne at the deadline for younger players/picks, how are you going to replace him in a year or two when Wayne is done.

What you are saying here is great in theory, but you have to trade something good to get something good, at least if you are in a league with good owners.

I dont think there is any right or wrong way to run a dynasty team, its not that somethings work and others dont, its the owner who is doing those things that makes it work or not.

Keeping the old stud doesn't guarantee a championship, but he improves your chances at one. Take those extra points out of your line-up come play-off time and it's usually enough to make you an also ran. Trading him away usually means you take yourself out of the running. I'd rather get beat by another team than beat myself.Remember, it's one old guy to replace or even 1 old guy per position, not an entire team of old guys. Replace one each year or every other year.

I believe in 20 seasons of dynasty play, I've had a top 5 pick only 1 time. While I'd really like to have a top 3 pick, the reality is that other players regularly outperform the top end guys. You can pretty much go back 10 years to see that it's true (other than Peterson's year). This is where you have to be honest with yourself on whether or not you are truly a good drafter or just drafting off somebody else's list. You may miss completely every 3rd year or you could be the guy that misses nearly every year. If you can get 1 good player each 1 or 2 drafts, then restocking is easy. Rebuilds need to hit on more picks than contenders do. I'd bet on average they don't.

Alas, the other guy is right that this was meant for start-up drafting. Sorry to derail it. Good discussion though.

 

[Donsmith753]

This may seem obvious but if you're going to take risks on a slightly older team you better win a championship your first year. One team in particular during a startup last year drafted gore, turner and Steve smith, got good value on each tbh but it didn't work out and his team is in a really bad way for the future.

My strategy was to draft mostly for next year. Take guys who could maybe do well this year but that should absolutely be ready to hit full potential the year after. I believe in going QB early but my experience is mainly in 16 team leagues so I'm probably bias.

 

[eaglesfan7]

This may seem obvious but if you're going to take risks on a slightly older team you better win a championship your first year. One team in particular during a startup last year drafted gore, turner and Steve smith, got good value on each tbh but it didn't work out and his team is in a really bad way for the future.My strategy was to draft mostly for next year. Take guys who could maybe do well this year but that should absolutely be ready to hit full potential the year after. I believe in going QB early but my experience is mainly in 16 team leagues so I'm probably bias.

I was in a similar situation. I drafted Gore, Turner and Reggie Wayne in a startup last season and everyone thought I was crazy. They also thought I was crazy for drafting Foster somewhat early and Kyle Orton but that's another story. Anyway, mid-season I traded Gore and Davone Bess for Roddy White. I traded Turner and Deon Butler for Mendenhall. Kept Wayne and will trade him this season before he loses his trade value.

 

[thriftyrocker]

You can't draft all young guys just because it's a dynasty or just because they only have 2-3 yrs left. Geez, Gore's only 28 to start the season and he's liable to help someone win a championship this year. These other guys are taking the 1.1 rookie before him, or even a 2012 devy. I love it when I see that.

Gore is not worth 1.4 straight up let alone 1.1 or a guy like Trent Richardson.

 

[finito]

I would pay the 1.04 for Gore.

 

[JPeso]

I've had 2 start-ups this year and I got Gore at 2.10 in one and he went at 2.10 in the other also. Turner went at 3.6 in both. Those are both great value. BTW, both drafts included 2011 rookies, and one also included devy's.

It's not great value. It's great value in redraft. It is a bad pick in a startup. I wouldn't touch Gore before the late 4th or Turner before the 6th in a 12 team draft like you're describing.

Agreed - can't imagine what you passed on that (1) can score within a very close range of Gore and have 4 more years in the league and (2) will outscore Turner and have 6 more years in the league.

 

[eaglesfan7]

I would pay the 1.04 for Gore.

If I was contending I would give up the 1.04 for Gore. If I was not contending I would hold the 1.04 and draft a young back.

 

[Tau837]

I thought this was a thread about draft strategy? When did it become a "when to trade your old guy" thread?

They kind of go hand in hand, dont they?

Sorry. Let me rephrase that. I thought this was a STARTUP dynasty trade thread? It would be implied that you have no old guys to trade. that said, let's keep going with the old guy stuff. How soon would you folks be willing to grab Michael Turner in a startp dynasty? How about Gore? In what round does a guy like Thomas Jones become a "value pick"? How about L.T.?See how that fits nicely with the topic?

I wouldnt take any of those guys. At least anywhere close to where they would get drafted by others.

I've had 2 start-ups this year and I got Gore at 2.10 in one and he went at 2.10 in the other also. Turner went at 3.6 in both. Those are both great value. I don't think I'd take Thomas Jones or LT in any round this year. I'd rather take a flyer on someone young.BTW, both drafts included 2011 rookies, and one also included devy's.

Absolutely no way I'd take Gore at 2.10 or Turner at 3.6 or Jones or LT at all. I'd much rather use my 2.10 and 3.6 picks on other positions.I agree with the strategy someone posted above of focusing on QB, WR, and TE in early rounds and getting RBs late.

 

[Tau837]

This may seem obvious but if you're going to take risks on a slightly older team you better win a championship your first year. One team in particular during a startup last year drafted gore, turner and Steve smith, got good value on each tbh but it didn't work out and his team is in a really bad way for the future.My strategy was to draft mostly for next year. Take guys who could maybe do well this year but that should absolutely be ready to hit full potential the year after. I believe in going QB early but my experience is mainly in 16 team leagues so I'm probably bias.

I was in a similar situation. I drafted Gore, Turner and Reggie Wayne in a startup last season and everyone thought I was crazy. They also thought I was crazy for drafting Foster somewhat early and Kyle Orton but that's another story. Anyway, mid-season I traded Gore and Davone Bess for Roddy White. I traded Turner and Deon Butler for Mendenhall. Kept Wayne and will trade him this season before he loses his trade value.

Anyone's startup strategy will work if they can get their league mates to accept multiple terrible trades. In my leagues, offering a trade like either of those would be viewed as a joke or insult.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I would pay the 1.04 for Gore.

If I was contending I would give up the 1.04 for Gore. If I was not contending I would hold the 1.04 and draft a young back.

In a startup or in the preseason there is no practical reason to do this. If I take Leshoure or Ryan Williams now, I can trade them for an old RB who is producing in November. If you are contending (or a good startup drafter), take your team, make the playoffs, and then trade for an old guy who can help for the stretch run.If you take Gore over a young player now, you are putting all your eggs in the Gore basket :easter:. If he looks slow/hobbled in August or doesn't make it through to the end of the year (like last year), then your team is shot long term.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

This may seem obvious but if you're going to take risks on a slightly older team you better win a championship your first year. One team in particular during a startup last year drafted gore, turner and Steve smith, got good value on each tbh but it didn't work out and his team is in a really bad way for the future.My strategy was to draft mostly for next year. Take guys who could maybe do well this year but that should absolutely be ready to hit full potential the year after. I believe in going QB early but my experience is mainly in 16 team leagues so I'm probably bias.

I was in a similar situation. I drafted Gore, Turner and Reggie Wayne in a startup last season and everyone thought I was crazy. They also thought I was crazy for drafting Foster somewhat early and Kyle Orton but that's another story. Anyway, mid-season I traded Gore and Davone Bess for Roddy White. I traded Turner and Deon Butler for Mendenhall. Kept Wayne and will trade him this season before he loses his trade value.

There's the problem. You can't base a draft strategy off the assumption of future deals, ones that would not occur in 90% of normal leagues. Those trades are outliers, and you can't build a strategy around outliers.

 

[JPeso]

This may seem obvious but if you're going to take risks on a slightly older team you better win a championship your first year. One team in particular during a startup last year drafted gore, turner and Steve smith, got good value on each tbh but it didn't work out and his team is in a really bad way for the future.My strategy was to draft mostly for next year. Take guys who could maybe do well this year but that should absolutely be ready to hit full potential the year after. I believe in going QB early but my experience is mainly in 16 team leagues so I'm probably bias.

I was in a similar situation. I drafted Gore, Turner and Reggie Wayne in a startup last season and everyone thought I was crazy. They also thought I was crazy for drafting Foster somewhat early and Kyle Orton but that's another story. Anyway, mid-season I traded Gore and Davone Bess for Roddy White. I traded Turner and Deon Butler for Mendenhall. Kept Wayne and will trade him this season before he loses his trade value.

Anyone's startup strategy will work if they can get their league mates to accept multiple terrible trades. In my leagues, offering a trade like either of those would be viewed as a joke or insult.

 

[Sidewinder16]

...one also included devy's.

...or even a 2012 devy.

Pardon my ignorance, but what is a "devy"?

 

[eaglesfan7]

Yea I realize that but I was just mentioning that trades are possibilities with these "older" players.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Wow you guys are so gullible.

 

[JPeso]

...one also included devy's.

...or even a 2012 devy.

Pardon my ignorance, but what is a "devy"?

Developmental pick, guys still in school. Some leagues let you draft any year college players, others only let you draft NFL Draft-eligible players.

 

[JPeso]

Wow you guys are so gullible.

Your shtick is getting old, champ.

 

[zilladog]

I would pay the 1.04 for Gore.

If I was contending I would give up the 1.04 for Gore. If I was not contending I would hold the 1.04 and draft a young back.

In a startup or in the preseason there is no practical reason to do this. If I take Leshoure or Ryan Williams now, I can trade them for an old RB who is producing in November. If you are contending (or a good startup drafter), take your team, make the playoffs, and then trade for an old guy who can help for the stretch run.If you take Gore over a young player now, you are putting all your eggs in the Gore basket :easter:. If he looks slow/hobbled in August or doesn't make it through to the end of the year (like last year), then your team is shot long term.

A guy like Leshoure is worth a Frank Gore and more in many dynasty leagues. And thats a steal for the Leshoure owner. You always take the guy with more value, then flip him for what you want. That, imo, is a great way to approach teambuilding. Of course, the risk is if Leshoure or whoever you take loses most of his value right off the bat. Montario Hardesty, anyone? No? How about Ben Tate?

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

I would pay the 1.04 for Gore.

If I was contending I would give up the 1.04 for Gore. If I was not contending I would hold the 1.04 and draft a young back.

In a startup or in the preseason there is no practical reason to do this. If I take Leshoure or Ryan Williams now, I can trade them for an old RB who is producing in November. If you are contending (or a good startup drafter), take your team, make the playoffs, and then trade for an old guy who can help for the stretch run.If you take Gore over a young player now, you are putting all your eggs in the Gore basket :easter:. If he looks slow/hobbled in August or doesn't make it through to the end of the year (like last year), then your team is shot long term.

A guy like Leshoure is worth a Frank Gore and more in many dynasty leagues. And thats a steal for the Leshoure owner. You always take the guy with more value, then flip him for what you want. That, imo, is a great way to approach teambuilding. Of course, the risk is if Leshoure or whoever you take loses most of his value right off the bat. Montario Hardesty, anyone? No? How about Ben Tate?

I think the difference here is that people view LeShoure as a top 4 talent prior to the draft, and will be more willing to wait it out with him, similar to CJ Spiller, Beanie Wells, etc. Tate and Hardesty were not on the top of anyones talent lists, they rose simply because of situation. Thats a key difference to me.