[Dynasty] 2014 Draft Prospects (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

I have a whole spreadsheet with workout numbers for all the first round RBs since the Steven Jackson/Chris Perry/Kevin Jones class.

If you're interested in some of the results, I made this post a while back:

This would be more meaningful to me if the arbitrary cut off for big vs. small wasn't 210, when two of the upper tier prospects were measured at 207 and 209. So if Sankey was one pound heavier, he'd be a lock for the 1st round? He would certainly meet all the of the other criteria you mentioned.

Here is the list of players by BMI along with their 40 times:

NAME BMI 40 Jonathan Stewart 33.5 4.46 Trent Richardson 33.5 4.48 Doug Martin 32.7 4.46 Rashard Mendenhall 32.2 4.41 Mark Ingram 31.7 4.62 DeAngelo Williams 31.6 4.45 Ronnie Brown 31.4 4.43 Cedric Benson 31.4 4.62 Beanie Wells 30.9 4.52 Kevin Jones 30.8 X Knowshon Moreno 30.7 4.5 Cadillac Williams 30.5 4.43 Steven Jackson 30.1 4.55 Chris Perry 30 4.56 Donald Brown 30 4.46 Ryan Mathews 30 4.37 David Wilson 30 4.38 Marshawn Lynch 29.9 4.46 Laurence Maroney 29.7 4.48 Joseph Addai 29.7 4.4 Felix Jones 29.6 4.44 Jahvid Best 28.5 4.34 Reggie Bush 28.3 4.37 Adrian Peterson 28.3 4.4 Darren McFadden 27.7 4.33 CJ Spiller 27.7 4.27 Chris Johnson 27.5 4.24

The average BMI is 30.3. Once you start to get around ~1.5 points off that mark, I think you start to get into the territory of "big" and "small" backs. It is a little bit arbitrary, but there is a pretty large gap between that bottom cluster and the rest of the group. It's also very interesting that all six of the 28.5 or lower BMI backs ran at least a 4.40 in the 40. It demonstrates how critical it is to be blazing fast if you're a RB with a lean frame.

If you sort by weight, you get something like this:

Joseph Addai 29.7 214 4.4 Darren McFadden 27.7 211 4.33 Donald Brown 30 210 4.46 Felix Jones 29.6 207 4.44 David Wilson 30 206 4.38 Reggie Bush 28.3 201 4.37 Jahvid Best 28.5 199 4.34 Chris Johnson 27.5 197 4.24 CJ Spiller 27.7 196 4.27

The same general pattern holds true. Ignoring BMI, it's accurate to just look at weight and conclude that lighter backs have to be faster to be drafted high.

You can argue about the specifics all you want, but the general pattern is obvious. Any RB lower on the weight/BMI scale will generally have to run a blazing 40 time to get picked in the 1st round. Look at the 40 times for guys like Gio Bernard (4.50), Tre Mason (4.50), Lache Seastrunk (4.51), and Bishop Sankey (4.49). Those guys all weigh between 200-209 pounds and none of them has even above average measured track speed. The combination of the low overall weight and the lack of 40 speed probably explains why you didn't/won't see those guys come off the board in the first 32 picks.

It's a very similar story for the big backs. Even if they're heavy, they still have to test well. Of the 27 first round RBs, only 6 ran 4.50 or slower (Beanie, SJax, Benson, Perry, Moreno, Ingram). Of that group, only two ran 4.60 or slower (Benson and Ingram). That's a bad sign for Eddie Lacy (4.64), Carlos Hyde (4.66), and Jeremy Hill (4.66). LeVeon Bell ran 4.56 in the 40 (slower than everyone besides Chris Perry, Mark Ingram, and Cedric Benson). He also did very poorly in the jumps with a 31.5" vertical and 9'10" broad jump. Both well off the average marks.

teams won't pay up for a starting RB unless he's viewed as a supreme talent.

That is the key idea. It's not enough to be serviceable to get picked this high. A RB prospect generally needs to be either insanely explosive (i.e. Spiller, McFadden, Bush) or be big with solid explosiveness for that size (i.e. Stewart, Martin, Mathews).

None of the highly-touted RB prospects from the 2013 class or 2014 class fit that mold, which has nothing to do with the league's valuation of RBs and everything to do with the player pool. You can't say that the NBA doesn't value franchise centers when all the centers in the draft are 6'9". That's essentially what's been going on the past two years. The argument that the league has moved away from coveting franchise backs would be a lot more compelling if there were somebody with awesome measurables, versatility and production who still somehow slipped out of the first round. I haven't seen that.

What we're seeing is probably just a temporary down cycle in the quality of the backs coming out of college. It doesn't help that a guy like Lattimore blew up his knee twice while a guy like Dyer who has freaky mass/speed/explosiveness went off the rails. If those things don't happen, maybe we're talking about how this 2014 class is a huge disappointment relative to the two first round RBs we had last year.

Some CliffsNotes details that stuck out to me:

- The average first round RB is 217 pounds with a 30.3 BMI, a 4.44 40, a 35.8" vertical, and a 10'2" broad jump.

- Only 8 of 27 backs were below 214 pounds. Of those 8 backs, all 8 ran below 4.50 in the 40.

- Only 6 of 27 backs were below 210 pounds. Of those 6 backs, 5 ran 4.3X or better in the 40. The only one who didn't was Felix Jones (who btw was a bust).

- 21 of 27 had a BMI of 29.6 or higher. All 6 below that threshold ran at least a 4.40 in the 40.

There is an inverse correlation between body thickness and 40 time, which is why almost all of the fastest times came from the lightest/thinnest backs (i.e. Jahvid Best, Chris Johnson, CJ Spiller, Reggie Bush). Ryan Mathews is the only back with a 30+ BMI to also run a 4.3X or faster in the 40. McFadden and Mathews were the only 210+ pound backs to run 4.3X or better and McFadden is near the very bottom of the BMI scale (he has a decent weight, but only because he's tall).

If you want to look at this stuff more, let's go back to the averages for a second...

217 pounds with a 30.3 BMI, a 4.44 40, a 35.8" vertical, and a 10'2" broad jump.

It's not quite accurate to view these as cutoffs since a really fast/explosive back can get away with being lighter than 217/30.3 and a really heavy/thick back can get away with being slower/less explosive than 4.44/35.8"/10'2". In fact, MOST first round RBs won't hit the mark in every drill. But in general, these are good ballpark figures for what a first round RB needs to look like physically. Now consider this year's RB class, as ranked by Draft Scout:

Tre Mason - 207 pounds, 31.1 BMI, 4.50 40, 38.5" vertical, 10'6" broad jump.

Carlos Hyde - 230 pounds, 31.5 BMI, 4.66 40, 34.5" vertical, 9'6" broad jump

Bishop Sankey - 209 pounds, 30.5 BMI, 4.49 40, 35.5" vertical, 10'6" broad jump

Jeremy Hill - 233 pounds, 31.2 BMI, 4.66 40, 29" vertical, 9'5" broad jump

KaDeem Carey - 207 pounds, 30.3 BMI, 4.70 40, 32.5" vertical, 9'7" broad jump

Andre Williams - 230 pounds, 31.8 BMI, 4.56 40, 38" vertical, 10'9" broad jump

Terrance West - 225 pounds, 33.0 BMI, 4.54 40, 33.5" vertical, 10'0" broad jump

Lache Seastrunk - 201 pounds, 29.3 BMI, 4.51 40, 41.5" vertical, 11'2" broad jump

The fact that none of these guys has a totally clean profile shouldn't be very alarming, as it's almost impossible to find a RB who wouldn't have at least one red mark here. Peterson would get dinged for his BMI. Chris Johnson for his BMI and weight. Steven Jackson for any number of things. Of the guys on my list, only Jonathan Stewart and Marshawn Lynch clear the bar in every category. Mathews and Martin are extremely close. The fact that none of these rookies met that standard isn't really that damning on its own.

However, there are some interesting things in these rookie results. First off, if you look at all of the guys who are red-flagged for low weight, every single one of them is also red-flagged for a slow 40 time. In other words, the light backs in this draft are also not very fast. So there's no CJ Spiller or Reggie Bush this year.

Hyde and Hill pass the weight/BMI barriers easily, but they're off the mark in the speed/explosiveness. That's to be expected to a certain extent, as thicker/heavier backs tend to run a little slower and jump a little worse. It's not the fact that they missed the averages that's alarming. It's the fact that they missed by such a huge margin. Their 4.66 40 times aren't even remotely close to the 4.46 average. Hyde has a moderately decent vertical and putrid broad jump. Hill was just awful in the jumps. Far, far off the standard of guys like Doug Martin, Steven Jackson, and Ryan Mathews.

Carey's profile is just an absolute mess, as he's at or below average in every category. Usually by a huge margin.

If you believe that Seastrunk's pro day time is more accurate than his combine time, he starts to look like he has a shout at being a Jahvid Best/Reggie Bush/CJ Spiller/David Wilson type who compensates for small size with dynamic workout measurables. Therein lies the problem though. He ran a 4.51 at the neutral environment of the combine. Hardly a 1st round time for a 201 pound back.

Terrance West is intriguing because of his respectable 40/broad/vertical at a high weight and BMI, but all the same he's below par in all of those drills. Add in the small school factor and he's certainly not a first round back.

Oddly enough, Andre Williams comes out with the cleanest profile. On paper, he has many of the physical qualities of a first round back. He's big. He's explosive. He's reasonably fast for his height. I think he's a prime candidate to be picked higher than projected, but ultimately he's probably not quite special enough. Especially when you factor in subjective analysis and his total lack of elusiveness/receiving ability.

That's a really long-winded post, but I'm just trying to illustrate why I don't buy the "RBs are devalued narrative."

If Hyde had blown up the combine with a 4.45 40, a 38" vertical, and a 10'5" broad jump at his same height/weight, he'd likely be right in the first round mix.

It takes the right combination of physical traits and nobody out there seems like a strong candidate this year.

 

[EBF]

One last note on the RB drought:

I think it would've been really interesting to see what the last couple drafts would've looked like if these guys had never had their various issues:

Knile Davis

Michael Dyer

Marcus Lattimore

Christine Michael

Without all the injuries in college, Knile Davis might have come into the league looking like a thicker Darren McFadden.

Dyer has first round height/weight/speed/explosiveness. If he stayed clean at Auburn, maybe he would've gone first round in 2013.

We'll never know how Lattimore would've tested at the combine. On paper, he has the right height/weight. I don't think he was ever going to be Jonathan Stewart in the drills, but he might have been able to hit Marshawn Lynch numbers. So much like Knile, take away the injuries and maybe he's a first rounder.

Despite being slower than ideal, Michael is a first round caliber athlete on the basis of his height/weight/speed/explosiveness. He had 6.0 YPC and 100 rushing yards/game during his junior year before tearing up his knee, which may have impacted his senior season as well. Remove the injuries from the equation and maybe you're looking at a first rounder in 2012 or 2013.

That's a lot of "ifs" but I think it provides a possible explanation for why there's been this strange RB talent drought the last couple years. It seems like the guys who were poised to become the next wave of first round backs were screened out very early by durability and off-field issues. Had they been able to dodge those bullets for another 15-20 college games, they might have come into the league smelling like roses.

 

[duaneok66]

I have a whole spreadsheet with workout numbers for all the first round RBs since the Steven Jackson/Chris Perry/Kevin Jones class.

If you're interested in some of the results, I made this post a while back:

This would be more meaningful to me if the arbitrary cut off for big vs. small wasn't 210, when two of the upper tier prospects were measured at 207 and 209. So if Sankey was one pound heavier, he'd be a lock for the 1st round? He would certainly meet all the of the other criteria you mentioned.

Here is the list of players by BMI along with their 40 times:

NAME BMI 40 Jonathan Stewart 33.5 4.46 Trent Richardson 33.5 4.48 Doug Martin 32.7 4.46 Rashard Mendenhall 32.2 4.41 Mark Ingram 31.7 4.62 DeAngelo Williams 31.6 4.45 Ronnie Brown 31.4 4.43 Cedric Benson 31.4 4.62 Beanie Wells 30.9 4.52 Kevin Jones 30.8 X Knowshon Moreno 30.7 4.5 Cadillac Williams 30.5 4.43 Steven Jackson 30.1 4.55 Chris Perry 30 4.56 Donald Brown 30 4.46 Ryan Mathews 30 4.37 David Wilson 30 4.38 Marshawn Lynch 29.9 4.46 Laurence Maroney 29.7 4.48 Joseph Addai 29.7 4.4 Felix Jones 29.6 4.44 Jahvid Best 28.5 4.34 Reggie Bush 28.3 4.37 Adrian Peterson 28.3 4.4 Darren McFadden 27.7 4.33 CJ Spiller 27.7 4.27 Chris Johnson 27.5 4.24

The average BMI is 30.3. Once you start to get around ~1.5 points off that mark, I think you start to get into the territory of "big" and "small" backs. It is a little bit arbitrary, but there is a pretty large gap between that bottom cluster and the rest of the group. It's also very interesting that all six of the 28.5 or lower BMI backs ran at least a 4.40 in the 40. It demonstrates how critical it is to be blazing fast if you're a RB with a lean frame.

If you sort by weight, you get something like this:

Joseph Addai 29.7 214 4.4 Darren McFadden 27.7 211 4.33 Donald Brown 30 210 4.46 Felix Jones 29.6 207 4.44 David Wilson 30 206 4.38 Reggie Bush 28.3 201 4.37 Jahvid Best 28.5 199 4.34 Chris Johnson 27.5 197 4.24 CJ Spiller 27.7 196 4.27

The same general pattern holds true. Ignoring BMI, it's accurate to just look at weight and conclude that lighter backs have to be faster to be drafted high.

You can argue about the specifics all you want, but the general pattern is obvious. Any RB lower on the weight/BMI scale will generally have to run a blazing 40 time to get picked in the 1st round. Look at the 40 times for guys like Gio Bernard (4.50), Tre Mason (4.50), Lache Seastrunk (4.51), and Bishop Sankey (4.49). Those guys all weigh between 200-209 pounds and none of them has even above average measured track speed. The combination of the low overall weight and the lack of 40 speed probably explains why you didn't/won't see those guys come off the board in the first 32 picks.

It's a very similar story for the big backs. Even if they're heavy, they still have to test well. Of the 27 first round RBs, only 6 ran 4.50 or slower (Beanie, SJax, Benson, Perry, Moreno, Ingram). Of that group, only two ran 4.60 or slower (Benson and Ingram). That's a bad sign for Eddie Lacy (4.64), Carlos Hyde (4.66), and Jeremy Hill (4.66). LeVeon Bell ran 4.56 in the 40 (slower than everyone besides Chris Perry, Mark Ingram, and Cedric Benson). He also did very poorly in the jumps with a 31.5" vertical and 9'10" broad jump. Both well off the average marks.

teams won't pay up for a starting RB unless he's viewed as a supreme talent.

That is the key idea. It's not enough to be serviceable to get picked this high. A RB prospect generally needs to be either insanely explosive (i.e. Spiller, McFadden, Bush) or be big with solid explosiveness for that size (i.e. Stewart, Martin, Mathews).

None of the highly-touted RB prospects from the 2013 class or 2014 class fit that mold, which has nothing to do with the league's valuation of RBs and everything to do with the player pool. You can't say that the NBA doesn't value franchise centers when all the centers in the draft are 6'9". That's essentially what's been going on the past two years. The argument that the league has moved away from coveting franchise backs would be a lot more compelling if there were somebody with awesome measurables, versatility and production who still somehow slipped out of the first round. I haven't seen that.

What we're seeing is probably just a temporary down cycle in the quality of the backs coming out of college. It doesn't help that a guy like Lattimore blew up his knee twice while a guy like Dyer who has freaky mass/speed/explosiveness went off the rails. If those things don't happen, maybe we're talking about how this 2014 class is a huge disappointment relative to the two first round RBs we had last year.

Some CliffsNotes details that stuck out to me:

- The average first round RB is 217 pounds with a 30.3 BMI, a 4.44 40, a 35.8" vertical, and a 10'2" broad jump.

- Only 8 of 27 backs were below 214 pounds. Of those 8 backs, all 8 ran below 4.50 in the 40.

- Only 6 of 27 backs were below 210 pounds. Of those 6 backs, 5 ran 4.3X or better in the 40. The only one who didn't was Felix Jones (who btw was a bust).

- 21 of 27 had a BMI of 29.6 or higher. All 6 below that threshold ran at least a 4.40 in the 40.

There is an inverse correlation between body thickness and 40 time, which is why almost all of the fastest times came from the lightest/thinnest backs (i.e. Jahvid Best, Chris Johnson, CJ Spiller, Reggie Bush). Ryan Mathews is the only back with a 30+ BMI to also run a 4.3X or faster in the 40. McFadden and Mathews were the only 210+ pound backs to run 4.3X or better and McFadden is near the very bottom of the BMI scale (he has a decent weight, but only because he's tall).

If you want to look at this stuff more, let's go back to the averages for a second...

217 pounds with a 30.3 BMI, a 4.44 40, a 35.8" vertical, and a 10'2" broad jump.

It's not quite accurate to view these as cutoffs since a really fast/explosive back can get away with being lighter than 217/30.3 and a really heavy/thick back can get away with being slower/less explosive than 4.44/35.8"/10'2". In fact, MOST first round RBs won't hit the mark in every drill. But in general, these are good ballpark figures for what a first round RB needs to look like physically. Now consider this year's RB class, as ranked by Draft Scout:

Tre Mason - 207 pounds, 31.1 BMI, 4.50 40, 38.5" vertical, 10'6" broad jump.

Carlos Hyde - 230 pounds, 31.5 BMI, 4.66 40, 34.5" vertical, 9'6" broad jump

Bishop Sankey - 209 pounds, 30.5 BMI, 4.49 40, 35.5" vertical, 10'6" broad jump

Jeremy Hill - 233 pounds, 31.2 BMI, 4.66 40, 29" vertical, 9'5" broad jump

KaDeem Carey - 207 pounds, 30.3 BMI, 4.70 40, 32.5" vertical, 9'7" broad jump

Andre Williams - 230 pounds, 31.8 BMI, 4.56 40, 38" vertical, 10'9" broad jump

Terrance West - 225 pounds, 33.0 BMI, 4.54 40, 33.5" vertical, 10'0" broad jump

Lache Seastrunk - 201 pounds, 29.3 BMI, 4.51 40, 41.5" vertical, 11'2" broad jump

The fact that none of these guys has a totally clean profile shouldn't be very alarming, as it's almost impossible to find a RB who wouldn't have at least one red mark here. Peterson would get dinged for his BMI. Chris Johnson for his BMI and weight. Steven Jackson for any number of things. Of the guys on my list, only Jonathan Stewart and Marshawn Lynch clear the bar in every category. Mathews and Martin are extremely close. The fact that none of these rookies met that standard isn't really that damning on its own.

However, there are some interesting things in these rookie results. First off, if you look at all of the guys who are red-flagged for low weight, every single one of them is also red-flagged for a slow 40 time. In other words, the light backs in this draft are also not very fast. So there's no CJ Spiller or Reggie Bush this year.

Hyde and Hill pass the weight/BMI barriers easily, but they're off the mark in the speed/explosiveness. That's to be expected to a certain extent, as thicker/heavier backs tend to run a little slower and jump a little worse. It's not the fact that they missed the averages that's alarming. It's the fact that they missed by such a huge margin. Their 4.66 40 times aren't even remotely close to the 4.46 average. Hyde has a moderately decent vertical and putrid broad jump. Hill was just awful in the jumps. Far, far off the standard of guys like Doug Martin, Steven Jackson, and Ryan Mathews.

Carey's profile is just an absolute mess, as he's at or below average in every category. Usually by a huge margin.

If you believe that Seastrunk's pro day time is more accurate than his combine time, he starts to look like he has a shout at being a Jahvid Best/Reggie Bush/CJ Spiller/David Wilson type who compensates for small size with dynamic workout measurables. Therein lies the problem though. He ran a 4.51 at the neutral environment of the combine. Hardly a 1st round time for a 201 pound back.

Terrance West is intriguing because of his respectable 40/broad/vertical at a high weight and BMI, but all the same he's below par in all of those drills. Add in the small school factor and he's certainly not a first round back.

Oddly enough, Andre Williams comes out with the cleanest profile. On paper, he has many of the physical qualities of a first round back. He's big. He's explosive. He's reasonably fast for his height. I think he's a prime candidate to be picked higher than projected, but ultimately he's probably not quite special enough. Especially when you factor in subjective analysis and his total lack of elusiveness/receiving ability.

That's a really long-winded post, but I'm just trying to illustrate why I don't buy the "RBs are devalued narrative."

If Hyde had blown up the combine with a 4.45 40, a 38" vertical, and a 10'5" broad jump at his same height/weight, he'd likely be right in the first round mix.

It takes the right combination of physical traits and nobody out there seems like a strong candidate this year.

Outstanding post.

You should be charging for this stuff.

 

[EBF]

One minor correction is that David Wilson also ran a 4.3X at a 30.0 BMI. He only weighs 206 pounds though, so he still qualifies as acutely undersized according to one of the two measures.

 

[cstu]

- Only 8 of 27 backs were below 214 pounds. Of those 8 backs, all 8 ran below 4.50 in the 40.

- Only 6 of 27 backs were below 210 pounds. Of those 6 backs, 5 ran 4.3X or better in the 40. The only one who didn't was Felix Jones (who btw was a bust).

This sums up what I look for in smaller backs - 214 and under need sub 4.5 and 210 and under need sub 4.4.

It's one reason I don't like this RB class.

Edit: not that other types can't be successful (McCoy and Bernard) but they are harder to predict.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

- Only 8 of 27 backs were below 214 pounds. Of those 8 backs, all 8 ran below 4.50 in the 40.

- Only 6 of 27 backs were below 210 pounds. Of those 6 backs, 5 ran 4.3X or better in the 40. The only one who didn't was Felix Jones (who btw was a bust).

This sums up what I look for in smaller backs - 214 and under need sub 4.5 and 210 and under need sub 4.4.

It's one reason I don't like this RB class.

Edit: not that other types can't be successful (McCoy and Bernard) but they are harder to predict.

McCoy has to be one of the oddest prospects in all of football since i've followed the draft. He looked like a beast on the field in college, which he is, but had horrendous workout numbers. He's fast, quick, and pretty strong but none of his workout numbers reflected that. Even in retrospect i don't get why he tested so badly, being sick is one thing but he still participated and tested awful.

 

[Brewtown]

- Only 8 of 27 backs were below 214 pounds. Of those 8 backs, all 8 ran below 4.50 in the 40.

- Only 6 of 27 backs were below 210 pounds. Of those 6 backs, 5 ran 4.3X or better in the 40. The only one who didn't was Felix Jones (who btw was a bust).

This sums up what I look for in smaller backs - 214 and under need sub 4.5 and 210 and under need sub 4.4.

It's one reason I don't like this RB class.

Edit: not that other types can't be successful (McCoy and Bernard) but they are harder to predict.

210 and under need sub 4.4....

Sub 4.4 doesn't grow on trees.....

 

[EBF]

- Only 8 of 27 backs were below 214 pounds. Of those 8 backs, all 8 ran below 4.50 in the 40.

- Only 6 of 27 backs were below 210 pounds. Of those 6 backs, 5 ran 4.3X or better in the 40. The only one who didn't was Felix Jones (who btw was a bust).

This sums up what I look for in smaller backs - 214 and under need sub 4.5 and 210 and under need sub 4.4.

It's one reason I don't like this RB class.

Edit: not that other types can't be successful (McCoy and Bernard) but they are harder to predict.

McCoy has to be one of the oddest prospects in all of football since i've followed the draft. He looked like a beast on the field in college, which he is, but had horrendous workout numbers. He's fast, quick, and pretty strong but none of his workout numbers reflected that. Even in retrospect i don't get why he tested so badly, being sick is one thing but he still participated and tested awful.

Broken record here, but I think quickness/elusiveness is one of the toughest things to capture in combine numbers. Because McCoy's best traits are largely intangible, it makes sense that he would slip through the cracks of the process when teams seem to bank so heavily on the concrete numbers.

Beyond that, I'd point out that McCoy wasn't a first round pick. The point I'm trying to make with all those numbers isn't that great players don't fall out of the first round or that every player who meets the physical criteria will automatically qualify as a first round prospect.

I'm only saying that there's a pretty clear pattern with the kind of backs the league typically takes in the first round. If a player doesn't fit the mold, he's probably not going to be a first round pick. That doesn't mean he can't have a great career (i.e Forte, Rice, McCoy, Gore).

 

[Milkman]

My lord that BMI list is full of busts.

 

[coolnerd]

My lord that BMI list is full of busts.

Anytime a single metric ( or physical attribute) is isolated in football as being some form of the "most" important to success or non-success, it pretty falls apart with in a year or two of people jumping all over it.

 

[EBF]

I don't see anyone making an argument that BMI is a great predictor of success.

All of the numbers have to be viewed in conjunction with one another.

BMI tells you something about body mass/power. It also helps put speed/explosiveness into context.

A 4.50 by a 5'10" 200 pound back would be a horrendous time. The same time by a 5'10" 230 pound back would be excellent.

When you know what the numbers mean, it can help you peg a prospect's playing style and quality.

 

[cstu]

I don't see anyone making an argument that BMI is a great predictor of success.

All of the numbers have to be viewed in conjunction with one another.

BMI tells you something about body mass/power. It also helps put speed/explosiveness into context.

A 4.50 by a 5'10" 200 pound back would be a horrendous time. The same time by a 5'10" 230 pound back would be excellent.

When you know what the numbers mean, it can help you peg a prospect's playing style and quality.

Which makes it very tough to gauge Sankey, Mason and Seastrunk...let alone Carey - who has off the charts metrics, in a bad way.

 

[Milkman]

Didn't Gio run a 4.5 at 200 pounds?

 

[EBF]

Yes, and Gio was not a first round pick.

Do not confuse "not a first round pick" with "not a good prospect."

Not the point of that whole tangent.

 

[Brewtown]

Who cares if a RB is a first round pick? The fact is most won't be in this day and age. I do believe that AP types will / would still be, but those are once every 5 or 10 year type players. I look at a guy like Alfred Morris who played at a small school and ran a 4.67 40 at the combine and who has performed like an All-Pro and is a fantasy stud. He is 5 foot 10 inches, 218 lbs and slow (according to his 40). Morris doesn't have ungodly juking ability or out of this world spin moves, but he gets the job done.

I look at two of the top running backs in this draft (Mason, Sankey). They are faster than Alfred, roughly the same BMI, performed better in every measure than Morris at the combine, and Sankey can catch the ball. They also have a college resume of success and big conference production.

You don't think they could be all-pro and a big time dynasty asset because they are not a first round pick or fit the mold of the EBF 2000...

I just looked at the top 15 dynasty RBs and only 5 were 1st round picks...

Why would a GM use a first round pick on a back this year there are sooooooo many options at RB in this draft...

Supply and demand has an impact as well...

 

[duaneok66]

The whole conversation was discussing WHY there isn't a first round pick. It had nothing to do with saying there aren't productive backs later in the round.

It is a really good read.

 

[Brewtown]

The whole conversation was discussing WHY there isn't a first round pick. It had nothing to do with saying there aren't productive backs later in the round.

It is a really good read.

It was, but he also mentioned that the RB position has not been devalued. I think most disagree with that statement.

I think it is easy to look at an AP type prospect and say "he is gonna be a good player" - everyone would say the same thing. I think that scouts/fantasy GMs make their money is by picking the not so obvious. Look at this years RB class. EBF has taken the stance that it's a garbage class (which I totally disagree with). Why not tell us who out of this class is going to be successful? Now that would be some good analysis that would be useful!

I like the odds of many in this class being successful starting NFL RBs.

 

[duaneok66]

I don't think he used the term "garbage". If he did, then I apologize. His point is just that its a below average group of backs. And of course there will be successful backs that are drafted lower, this happens every year.

 

[OrangeJulius]

Gil Brandt - just stated on Sirius NFL Radio that "Depreciation of the running back position is the biggest reason that no back will be taken in the first round this year". He said this after an interview with Jeremy Hill who he is very high on. Hill sounded like a pretty sharp guy.

I'm not sure what people think of Gil's opinion, but he has been in a draft room or two.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

Gil Brandt - just stated on Sirius NFL Radio that "Depreciation of the running back position is the biggest reason that no back will be taken in the first round this year". He said this after an interview with Jeremy Hill who he is very high on. Hill sounded like a pretty sharp guy.

I'm not sure what people think of Gil's opinion, but he has been in a draft room or two.

Gil Brandt has forgotten more football than any of us will ever know. That's because he's forgotten nearly everything.

 

[Biabreakable]

So I looked at the 1st round draft picks since 2003 to make a comparison of the number of RB drafted in the 1st round compared to all other positions-

2003

QB Palmer, Leftwich, Boller, Grossman
RB McGahee, Larry Johnson,
WR Rogers, Andre Johnson, Bryant Johnson
TE Clark,
OL Gross, Foster, Faine, Harris,
DL Robertson, Sullivan, Kevin Williams, Kennedy, Warren, Haynes, McDougle, Pace, Joseph, Brayton
LB Suggs, Barnett,
CB Newman, Trufant, Woolfork, Davis, Asomugha
S Polamalu

2004

QB Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Losman
RB Jackson, Perry, Jones
WR Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Evans, Clayton, Jenkins, Woods
TE Winslow, Watson
OL Gallery, Andrews, Carey,
DL Harris, DJ Williams,Will Smith, Udeze, Wilfork, Tubbs,
LB Vilma, Babin,
CB Hall, Carroll, Gamble,
S Taylor,

2005

QB Smith, Rodgers, Campbell,
RB Brown, Benson, Cadillac Williams,
WR Edwards, Williamson, Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Clayton, White
TE Miller
OL Brown, Barron, Spencer, Mankins
DL Johnson, James, Spears, Castillo, Patterson
LB Ware, Merriman, Johnson, Pollack
CB Jones, Rolle, Rogers, Davis, Washington, Jackson,

2006

QB Young, Leinart, Cutler,
RB Bush, Maroney, DeAngelo Williams, Addai
WR Holmes
TE Vernon Davis, Lewis
OL Ferguson, Joseph, Mangold
DL Mario Williams, Ngata, Bunkley, Hali, McCargo, Kiwanuka
LB Hawk, Sims, Wimbley, Greenway, Carpenter, Lawson,
CB Hill, Allen, Joseph, Jennings, Cromartie
S Huff, Whitner

2007

QB Russell, Quinn,
RB Peterson, Lynch
WR Calvin Johnson, Ted Ginn, Bowe, Meachem, Craig Davis, Gonzalez
TE Olsen
OL Joe Thomas, Brown, Staley, Grubbs
DL Gaines Adams, Jamal Anderson, Okoye, Carriker, Harrell, Moss,
LB Patrick Willis, Timmons, Beason, Spencer
CB Revis, Hall, Ross,
S Landry, Griffin, Nelson, Meriweather


2008

QB Ryan, Flacco,
RB McFadden, Stewart, Jones, Mendenhall, Chris Johnson
TE Keller
OL Long, Clady, Albert, Williams, Cherilus, Otah, Baker, Brown, Jackson, Balmer
DL Long,Dorsey,Ellis, Harvey,
LB Gholston, Rivers, Mayo,
CB McKelvin, DRC, Talib, Jenkins, Cason
S Phillips

2009

QB Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman
RB Moreno, Donald Brown, Wells
WR Heyward Bey, Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Britt
TE Pettigrew
OL Jason Smith, Andre Smith, Monroe, Mack, Oher, Wood
DL Tyson Jackson, Raji, Maybin, English, Jerry, Hood
LB Curry, Orakpo, Cushing, Ayers, Matthews
CB Jenkins, Davis

2010

QB Bradford, Tebow
RB Spiller, Mathews, Best
WR Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant,
TE Gresham,
OL Trent Williams, Okung, Davis, Lupati, Pouncey, Bulaga
DL Suh, McCoy, Alualu, Graham, JPP, Morgan, Dan Williams, Odrick
LB McClain, Weatherspoon, Hughes
CB Haden, Jackson, McCourty, Kyle Wilson, Robinson
S Berry, Earl Thomas,

2011

QB Cam Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder,
RB Ingram
WR AJ Green, Julio Jones, Baldwin,
OL Tyron Smith, Pouncey, Solder, Castonzo, Watkins, Carpenter, Carimi, Sherrod
DL Dareus, Watt, Fairley, Quinn, Clayborn, Taylor, Jordan, Wilkerson, Heyward
LB Miller, Aldon Smith, Kerrigan, Liuget
CB Peterson, Amukamara, Jimmy Smith,

2012

QB Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weeden,
RB Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson
WR Blackmon, Floyd, Wright, AJ Jenkins
OL Kalil, Reiff. DeCastro, Zeitler
DL Poe, Cox, Brockers, Irvin, Coples, Jones
LB Kuechly, McClellin, Ingram, Hightower, Mercilus, Perry
CB Claiborne, Gilmore, Kirpatrick,
S Barron, Harrison Smith

2013

QB EJ Manuel,
WR Tavon Austin, Hopkins, Patterson
TE Eifert
OL Fisher, Joeckel, Lane Johnson, Cooper, Warmack, Fluker, Pugh, Long, Frederick
DL Jordan, Ansah, Richardson, Lotulelei, Floyd, Datone Jones, Sylvester Williams,
LB Mingo, Jarvis Jones, Werner, Ogletree
CB Milliner, Hayden, Trufant, Rhodes
S Vaccaro, Reid, Elam

The results of this are:

32 QB or 2.9 on average
29 RB or 2.6 on average
41 WR or 3.7 on average
11 TE or 1.0 on average
61 OL or 5.5 on average
66 DL or 6.0 on average
43 LB or 3.9 on average
60 DB or 5.5 on average

93 skill position players or 8.5 on average
230 linemen and defensive players or 20.9 on average

2008

2 QB one less than average drafted
5 RB double the average number drafted
0 WR 3.7 less than average
1 TE equal to average
10 OL 4.5 more than average
4 DL one less than average drafted
3 LB one less than average drafted
6 DB .5 more than average drafted

So looking at this I see the 2008 draft as being very weak at WR thus no WR were taken in the 1st round.

Also the number of offensive linemen drafted in 2008 was almost twice the average as well.

Therefore I do not think it was the talent of the RB that caused so many of them to be drafted early in 2008 but moreso the lack of talent at QB (Tebow was one of the 2 1st round QB) and WR. There were 8 skill position players drafted in 2008 which is .5 less than average.

Conclusion - The 2008 draft class was a weak one overall, particularly at the WR position. This weakness caused the draft position of RB to be higher than it normally would be. The talent at RB was found not in the 1st round but in the second and third rounds. Which may in part have influenced front offices in their RB evaluations after the 2008 draft class. It may also be somewhat influenced by the weak 2005 draft class which also caused RB to be taken early (3RB in the top 5 of the draft). I think 2005 was weaker than 2008 was, but both overall draft classes were poor by comparison in the 1st round.

Here is the list of 1st round RBs since 2008-

Darren McFadden finished 6th, 28th, 34th, 41st, 47th, 50th at his position. He had one season of positive VBD performance. (2010 88 VBD or 5.5ppg advantage)

Johnathan Stewart finished 11th, 24th, 25th, 34th, 54th, 90th at his position. He had one season of positive VBD performance. (2009 43 VBD or 2.68ppg advantage)

Kevin Jones finished 21st, 23rd, 28th, 31st, 98th at his position. He had 2 seasons (2004 and 2006) where he posted marginal VBD performance (8 and 10 VBD which is less than 1pt/game) but not enough that he helped you win games.

Mendenhall finished 7th, 13th, 19th, 25th, 90th, 11th at his position. He had 3 seasons of positive VBD performance. (84 (5.25/game),35 (almost 2ppg) and 14 (less than 1ppg)) 2 seasons where he could have helped you win games.

Chris Johnson finished 1st, 5th, 9th, 11th, 13th, 16th at his position. I consider this a successful

career as he gave 4 seasons of RB1 or better production and has always posted positive VBD numbers so far in his career (although that performance has been sporadic, which hurts in HtH leagues).

Moreno finished 5th, 17th, 18th, 35th, 77th at his position. He had 3 seasons with positive VBD (2013 110VBD or 6.8ppg advantage, 2010 25VBD or 1.56ppg advantage, 20VBD or 1.25ppg advantage)

Donald Brown the highest he has finished is 26th at his position. He has not produced a positive VBD season.

Wells finished 17th, 31st, 53rd, 58th at his position. (2011 21VBD or 1.3ppg advantage)

Spiller finished 7th, 27th, 33rd at his position. (2012 96VBD or 6ppg advantage)

Mathews finished 7th, 12th, 30th, 30th at his position. (2013 58VBD or 3.6ppg advantage, 2011 42 VBD or 2.6ppg advantage) What is interesting here is that Spiller performed better overall in 2011 (7th at his position) but did not have as much of a VBD advantage as he did last season. That shows how poor RB performance overall was in 2013.

Jahvid Best finished 23rd and 41st at his position. Injured and out of the league. He did provide 2VBD in his rookie season.

Mark Ingram finished 33rd, 45th and 61st at his position. He has not had a positive VBD season yet.

Trent Richardson finished 9th and 34th at his position. 2012 87 VBD or 5.43ppg advantage. Had a horrible season in 2013 and it remains to be seen if he can turn that around or not.

Doug Martin finished 2nd and 56th at his position. 2012 146 VBD or 9.1ppg advantage. Still too early to judge his career at this point.

David Wilson finished 48th and 100th at his position. He has no positive VBD seasons so far in his career.

So perhaps I am making EBFs point that there have not been very many RB worthy of being 1st round picks over the past 11 seasons and especially in the last 6 seasons. At the same time I think the draft position/pedigree of RB in 2005 and 2008 was inflated due to lack of talent at other positions, rather than the RB being drafted in the 1st round of those seasons being elite talents worthy of those picks by NFL teams.

 

[Brewtown]

In 2012 Doug Martin was taken at pick 31 and David Wilson was taken at pick 32.....

These are essentially 2nd rounders from a draft value perspective....

Therefore in 2011 Ingram was the only one - 2012 Trent was a slam dunk 1st rounder - 2013 none - 2014 probably none....

So utilizing a high pick on a running back has been something that NFL teams have shied away from in the past 4 years...

 

[lbouchard]

In 2012 Doug Martin was taken at pick 31 and David Wilson was taken at pick 32.....

These are essentially 2nd rounders from a draft value perspective....

Lol no, a late 1st rounder is still a 1st rounder.

 

[Brewtown]

In 2012 Doug Martin was taken at pick 31 and David Wilson was taken at pick 32.....

These are essentially 2nd rounders from a draft value perspective....

Lol no, a late 1st rounder is still a 1st rounder.

To each his own....I don't look at things in only a black or white manner.... There is definite grey here...

Nice research though by Biabreakable...

 

[EBF]

I think McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, and CJ2K would be first round picks in any draft given their college production and workout numbers.

We'll agree to disagree. It can't be "proven" one way or another.

I don't think Gil Brandt's take is on the money at all. If the reason there won't be any 1st round RBs this year is because the league is devaluing the position, show me the RB prospects who have a good case for going in the first round. There aren't any. When the league starts passing on physical freaks with strong college production, then you'll know something is up. For now it's much ado about nothing.

 

[Brewtown]

I think McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, and CJ2K would be first round picks in any draft given their college production and workout numbers.

We'll agree to disagree. It can't be "proven" one way or another.

I don't think Gil Brandt's take is on the money at all. If the reason there won't be any 1st round RBs this year is because the league is devaluing the position, show me the RB prospects who have a good case for going in the first round. There aren't any. When the league starts passing on physical freaks with strong college production, then you'll know something is up. For now it's much ado about nothing.

I agree on McFadden, Stewart, and Mendenhall - Chris Johnson producing at East Carolina was no lock to go in the 1st round. Knowing what we know now - yeah - his talent should have been taken in the 1st round. He was no first round lock at the time though.If you needed a running back and you knew other teams did - and they "were going to be hot commodities" then you may jump at either the incredibly talented and successful Hyde, Mason, Sankey, or Hill in the first round. Given the depth in this draft why would you go and get a RB early???

Below are some various reasons/contributing factors to the devaluing of the RB position:

GMs don't want to make an investment into RBs because they can get hurt very easily (new concussion rules don't help)

Because the position is easily hurt (on any given play) GMs don't want to spend a high draft pick or invest in with a big contract

Supply and demand contributes to the devaluing as well

RBs are viewed as disposable/easily replaced

Running backs of all shapes/sizes and skillsets have been successful in the NFL

The position is viewed as plug and play

Mike Shanahan

How many teams ever really rode a RB to a Super Bowl Championship...

All of the above are contributing factors for the devaluing of the position in the eyes of NFL decision makers.

 

[Brewtown]

RB Carlos Hyde, Ohio State (from Mel Kiper)

Expectation: Early in Round 2.

How low could he go?

New England at No. 62. There was a time when a runner like Hyde wouldn't make it out of Round 1, but the league has gotten smarter. It's not a big need for New England, but if Hyde were somehow still around, they'd be just the team to either take the value or trade down to someone who would deal perhaps an extra third to get him.

 

[cstu]

The whole conversation was discussing WHY there isn't a first round pick. It had nothing to do with saying there aren't productive backs later in the round.

It is a really good read.

It was, but he also mentioned that the RB position has not been devalued. I think most disagree with that statement.

I think it is easy to look at an AP type prospect and say "he is gonna be a good player" - everyone would say the same thing. I think that scouts/fantasy GMs make their money is by picking the not so obvious. Look at this years RB class. EBF has taken the stance that it's a garbage class (which I totally disagree with). Why not tell us who out of this class is going to be successful? Now that would be some good analysis that would be useful!

I like the odds of many in this class being successful starting NFL RBs.

You could both be right - there's no elite talent, but they could end up being good starting RB's.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, and CJ2K would be first round picks in any draft given their college production and workout numbers.

We'll agree to disagree. It can't be "proven" one way or another.

I don't think Gil Brandt's take is on the money at all. If the reason there won't be any 1st round RBs this year is because the league is devaluing the position, show me the RB prospects who have a good case for going in the first round. There aren't any. When the league starts passing on physical freaks with strong college production, then you'll know something is up. For now it's much ado about nothing.

That is fine we disagree.

I think HS already mentioned this but I looked up the combine numbers for these players who you claim would be 1st round picks in any draft.

Rashard Mendenhall 5' 11" 4.45 40 26 BR 33.5" vert 9' 9" broad

Draft scout lists him as 225lbs but this was after the combine when he put the weight back on http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=56664&draftyear=2008&genpos=RB

2005 Illinois Big Ten RB 10 48 218 4.5 0 13 82 6.3 2 61 300 4.9 2

2006 Illinois Big Ten RB 12 78 640 8.2 5 12 164 13.7 1 90 804 8.9 6
*2007 Illinois Big Ten RB 13 262 1681 6.4 17 34 318 9.4 2 296 1999 6.8 19 http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/rashard-mendenhall-1.html

Bishop Sankey 5' 9" 209lbs 4.49 40 26 BR 35.5 vert 10' 6" broad http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/bishop-sankey?id=2543682

*2011 Washington Pac-12 JR RB 12 28 187 6.7 1 6 14 2.3 0 34 201 5.9 1

*2012 Washington Pac-12 JR RB 13 289 1439 5.0 16 33 249 7.5 0 322 1688 5.2 16
*2013 Washington Pac-12 JR 13 327 1870 5.7 20 28 304 10.9 1 355 2174 6.1 21 http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/bishop-sankey-1.html

So unless you are going with the post combine weight for Mendenhall I see little difference between him and Mendenhall and Sankey has better college performance than Mendenhall had. So wouldn't that make Sankey a lock for the 1st round if your criteria were correct?

Tre Mason 5' 8" 207 pounds 4.50 40 38.5" vertical, 10'6" broad jump.

*2011 Auburn SEC JR RB 12 28 161 5.8 1 28 161 5.8 1

2012 Auburn SEC JR RB 12 171 1002 5.9 8 7 86 12.3 0 178 1088 6.1 8
2013 Auburn SEC JR RB 14 317 1816 5.7 23 12 163 13.6 1 329 1979 6.0 24

Mason is also very close to Mendenhalls combine numbers. .05 seconds slower in the 40 (can this possibly matter?) better jump numbers and shorter more compact player (which for RB imo is a good thing).

McFadden was drafted by Al Davis RIP who is known to overvalue 40 times with his draft picks and who drafted a ton of busts. It is hard to say if another team would have pulled the trigger on McFadden or not in the 1st round. Any Al Davis pick to me should be taken with a grain of salt.

So if your hypothesis is correct ("McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, and CJ2K would be first round picks in any draft given their college production and workout numbers") then I do not really see why Sankey and Mason would not also be locks for the 1st round.

eta- Lache Seastrunk 5' 9" 201lbs 4.51 40 15 BR 41.5 vert 11' 1" broad http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/lache-seastrunk?id=2543559

*2012 Baylor Big 12 JR RB 13 131 1012 7.7 7 9 107 11.9 1 140 1119 8.0 8

*2013 Baylor Big 12 JR RB 11 158 1177 7.4 11 158 1177 7.4 11 http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/lache-seastrunk-1.html

After a somewhat disappointing showing at the NFL Combine, Seastrunk boosted his numbers in Waco, recording a 4.46 40-yard dash after running a 4.51 in Indianapolis. He has elusive moves with the ability to create yards on his own, but the pedestrian 40 time put his straight-line speed into question.Seastrunk finished among the Combine leaders in the vertical jump (41.5-inches) and broad jump (11-foot-2) and rested on those numbers Wednesday, but he did post impressive times in the 3-cone drill (6.81), short shuttle (4.31) and long shuttle (11.33). Overall it was a positive day for the borderline top-100 prospect. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/24492184/pro-days-baylors-seastrunk-improves-combine-times

 

[Faust]

Aaron Murray still in line to be among draft's biggest stealsBy Gil Brandt

NFL Media senior analyst

Last week, the pro-day spotlight was on LSU quarterback Zach Mettenberger, who threw for scouts less than five months after having ACL surgery. This week, the spotlight turns to another SEC quarterback returning from an ACL injury, Georgia's Aaron Murray. Both of these players were together at Georgia in the spring of 2010, with Murray emerging as the winner of the starting job as a freshman, and Mettenberger transferring to Butler Community college and eventually LSU.

Murray started 2010 by losing four of his first five games, but he finished the year with six wins and a bowl appearance, totaling 24 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions, pretty remarkable for a first-year starter. Very few quarterbacks in history have put up these kinds of numbers starting as a freshman.

To be a good NFL quarterback, you need to have three things to go along with your ability to perform as a player: mental quickness, dedication and leadership potential. Murray ranks at the top of the charts in these areas; in my evaluation of him, he scored as high as a player can in the three categories.

On the field, Murray's athletic ability is outstanding. His arm strength isn't quite at Mettenberger's level, but it's adequate, and he has good accuracy and is an outstanding decision-maker. Picture Drew Brees as a senior at Purdue -- I see Murray being in the same mold, and not just because of their similarities in size. Obviously, Murray will have to prove it at the NFL level, but I think his performance to this point has proved to be as good as Brees' when he was at Purdue.

On top of his skills, Murray also has great production. He is the SEC's all-time passing leader in yards, touchdown passes, completions and total offense. He also is the first QB in SEC history to have four consecutive seasons with 3,000 yards passing. He finished his career with 121 touchdowns and 41 interceptions.

One other thing stands out to me about Murray. I've always felt a quarterback should have at least 30 starts under his belt before entering the NFL. Having that kind of experience teaches you to read defenses better and improves your overall play. Murray made 52 starts -- that means he started every game while he was at Georgia through the 11th game of his senior year, when he suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Fifty-two starts from a college quarterback is something you might see once every 10 years.

Only time will tell if Murray turns out as good as Brees, but if he's medically cleared from his injury, I believe Murray can be a starter in the NFL and has the potential to lead a team to the playoffs. Brees was the first player taken in the second round of the 2001 draft; I wouldn't have any problem drafting Murray somewhere past the midpoint of the second round.

Murray is just five months removed from ACL surgery, so I'm not expecting his workout Wednesday to be great, but this shouldn't raise any alarms. Considering how advanced we are in repairing injuries these days, I don't think his knee should be a concern on draft day.

Back in November, I predicted that Murray would make some team very happy and be the steal of the draft. I still think that, when we look back on this draft a few years from now, we'll view Murray the way we view Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson -- a successful quarterback who should have been drafted much higher than he was.

Follow Gil Brandt on Twitter @Gil_Brandt.

 

[Faust]

AJ McCarron, Jeremy Hill among potential first-round surprises

 

[gchip]

AJ McCarron, Jeremy Hill among potential first-round surprises

Oh for pete's sake....

 

[Penguin]

Draft hopeful James Wilder Jr. arrested

Posted by Michael David Smith on April 14, 2014, 12:32 PM EDT

James Wilder Jr., a former Florida State running back who is hoping to be drafted next month, was arrested in Tampa on Sunday night.
The Tampa Bay Times reports that Wilder was arrested on an outstanding warrant related to a charge of driving with a suspended license. He was arrested at 7:21 p.m. on Sunday and released on $1,000 bail at 12:20 a.m. on Monday.

According to the report, Wilder has been cited for violations related to his drivers license at least four times. He was also arrested in February of 2012 and was accused of battery on an officer; he later pleaded no contest to a charge of resisting an officer without violence. Wilder spent time in jail later that year after he violated his probation by having traces of alcohol on his breath when he reported to a sheriff’s work camp.

Wilder had 81 carries for 563 yards and eight touchdowns last season in helping the Seminoles win the national championship. He decided to forego his senior season to enter the NFL draft.

Wilder’s father was a Pro Bowl running back for the Buccaneers and is Tampa Bay’s all-time leading rusher.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

AJ McCarron, Jeremy Hill among potential first-round surprises

Oh for pete's sake....

Yeah. This kind of thing is disappointing.

 

[Faust]

The SI 64, Nos. 29-25: Jace Amaro, Eric Ebron, Jason Verrett and more

 

[Faust]

Johnny Manziel keeps No. 1 spot on top 50 prospects list

By Gil Brandt

NFL Media senior analyst

A lot has changed in the three months since I released my first set of rankings for the draft, but you'll notice my top two players in the draft haven't.

Here is my second look at the top 50 prospects for the 2014 draft, which includes a lot of familiar names in different spots, plus a handful of players who are new to the rankings.

1. Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

Previous rank: 1

Manziel (5-foot-11 3/4, 205 pounds) is a unique athlete who produced 10,000 yards of offense in two seasons with the Aggies. I had his 40 timed at 4.56 seconds at the combine (4.68 officially). He's a very smart player and has great vision at quarterback.

2. Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina

Previous rank: 2

Clowney (6-foot-5 1/4, 266 pounds) did not play well in his last season, but he has great talent and is an outstanding athlete with speed -- he was clocked at 4.47 in his combine 40 (4.53 officially).

3. Khalil Mack, LB, Buffalo

Previous rank: 8

Mack (6-foot-2 5/8, 251 pounds) is the real deal. He broke Kansas City Chiefs LB Derrick Johnson's NCAA career record for forced fumbles. In 2013, he had 10.5 sacks and three interceptions and was especially impressive against Ohio State in the season opener, posting nine tackles and 2.5 sacks. He ran 4.62 in the 40 at the combine (4.65 officially) and posted a 40-inch vertical.

4. Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn

Previous rank: 10

A third-year player, Robinson (6-foot-5, 332 pounds) played guard in high school in Louisiana and redshirted in 2011 before starting 24 games the past two years. He ran the 40 in 4.84 (4.92 officially) and had 32 reps in the bench press.

5. Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

Previous rank: 4

Matthews (6-foot-5 1/2, 308 pounds) stayed in school for his fourth year and learned the left tackle position. He can also play guard or tackle and is a good pass blocker. At the combine, he ran the 40 in 4.91 (5.07 officially) and had 24 bench-press reps.

6. Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson

Previous rank: 7

Watkins (6-0 3/4, 202 pounds) is a very strong receiver with great speed -- he ran a 4.34 40 at the combine (4.43 officially). He had a great first year in 2011, when he had 82 catches and 12 TDs and averaged 25 yards per kickoff return, then missed three games in an up-and-down sophomore season. The highlight of his 2013 campaign -- in which he had 101 catches and 12 touchdowns -- was a 16-catch, 227-yard performance against Ohio State in the Orange Bowl. He finished his college career with 240 catches.

7. Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M

Previous rank: 20

Evans (6-foot-4 3/4, 231 pounds) is a mismatch for cornerbacks. Watch his game against Auburn, in which he had 11 catches for 287 yards and four touchdowns. He's a very good athlete who played basketball in high school. He has outstanding hands and great upside. He needs to work on his route running, and I believe he'll learn.

8. Blake Bortles, QB, UCF

Previous rank: 5

Bortles (6-foot-5, 232 pounds) has emerged as a top QB prospect after receiving only two offers out of high school, including one from Purdue, which recruited him as a tight end. He completed 68 percent of his passes last season, with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has great upside but needs to work on his footwork and mechanics.

9. Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

Previous rank: 9

A fifth-year player, Lewan (6-foot-7 1/8, 309 pounds) didn't play as well in 2013 as he did in the 2012 season, which ended with him holding his own against Jadeveon Clowney in the Outback Bowl. He does things very easy and has the strength to play left tackle, but he's a better run blocker than pass protector. He ran a 4.85 40 at the combine (4.87 officially).

10. Anthony Barr, LB, UCLA

Previous rank: 3

Like his father, Barr (6-foot-4 7/8, 255 pounds) is a former running back. He had 23.5 sacks over two seasons and can rush as well as play in space. Barr ran two 40s at UCLA's pro day unofficially timed under 4.50: 4.41 and 4.49 seconds. He also had 19 reps in the bench press.

11. Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State

Previous rank: 19

At 6-0 1/2, 205 pounds, Gilbert is a big corner but also a very fast one who can flip his hips to run with fast receivers. He ran a 4.35 40 at the combine (4.37 officially). He played better in 2013 than in 2012, posting seven interceptions. He averaged close to 26 yards per kickoff return last season.

12. Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina

Previous rank: 16

Ebron (6-foot-4 1/8, 250 pounds) has outstanding athletic ability and ran a 4.50 40 at the combine (4.60 officially). He's more of a receiver than a blocker and broke Vernon Davis' single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end in the ACC, with 973 yards on 62 catches. He played some defensive end in 2012 and can line up in the slot.

13. Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville

Previous rank: 6

In two seasons, Bridgewater (6-foot-2 1/8, 214 pounds) had 58 TD passes and only 12 interceptions and a completion percentage of nearly 70 percent. He had a less-than-great pro day, but it was better than most people think. He ran the 40 once, clocking 4.79 seconds on a surface that wasn't as fast as the softer FieldTurf used at the combine. He needs to work out again, this time with gloves and also out of the shotgun. His thin frame remains a concern; at his pro day, he weighed 208 pounds.

14. Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame

Previous rank: 25

Martin (6-foot-4, 308 pounds) was the MVP of the Pinstripe Bowl against Rutgers. He has good athletic ability and plays left tackle, but his best position as a pro might be at guard.

15. Odell Beckham, WR, LSU

Previous rank: 47

Beckham (5-foot-11 1/4, 198 pounds) will be a star in the NFL both catching passes and returning kicks. He won the Paul Hornung Award as the nation's most versatile player last season. At the combine, he ran a 4.31 in the 40 (4.43 officially), 3.94 in the short shuttle, and 6.69 in the three-cone drill.

16. Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

Previous rank: 35

Cooks (5-foot-9 3/4, 189 pounds) is short but is a great athlete with excellent hands and toughness. He was one of the fastest guys at the combine, running 4.30 in the 40 (4.33 officially), 3.81 in the short shuttle and 6.76 in the three-cone drill.

17. Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh

Previous rank: 41

Donald (6-foot 3/4, 285 pounds) never stops working and has great quickness. He had 28.5 tackles for loss in 2013, best in college football. You wish he were a little taller, but he has good arm length (32 5/8 inches). He ran the 40 in 4.65 at the combine (4.68 officially).

18. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama

Previous rank: 13

Clinton-Dix (6-foot-1 3/8, 208 pounds) has very good ball skills and reminds some people of Chiefs safety Eric Berry. He was a two-year starter at safety, acting as the quarterback for Alabama's defensive backs. He has long, 32-inch-plus arms and ran a 4.50 40 at the combine (4.58 officially).

19. Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State

Previous rank: 32

Shazier (6-foot-1 1/2, 227 pounds) lacks size for the position but makes plays all over the field, totaling 258 tackles in his junior and sophomore seasons. He can also play in space.

20. Marqise Lee, WR, USC

Previous rank: 14

Lee (5-foot-11 3/4, 192 pounds) is an outstanding athlete who ran a 4.44 40 at the combine (4.52 officially) and had a 38-inch vertical. He also ran a sub-7.00 three-cone drill at his pro day. He isn't the most advanced route runner. A knee injury and inconsistent QB play held him back last season, but he finished with a big game in the Vegas Bowl. In three seasons at USC he had 248 catches and 29 touchdowns.

21. Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville

Previous rank: NR

Pryor (5-foot-11 1/8, 207 pounds) is a big hitter who is smart, tough and physical. He ran a 4.60 40 at the combine and improved his three-cone time to 6.98 at his pro day on a slower turf. He had 175 tackles, five interceptions and nine forced fumbles in three years at Louisville.

22. Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri

Previous rank: 24

Ealy (6-foot-4, 273 pounds) is a very athletic player with great quickness and a lot of upside. He came to Mizzou at 217 pounds; at his pro day he weighed 265. A two-year starter, Ealy had one good year, in 2013, which included a great game against Auburn: two forced fumbles and three tackles for loss. He ran the 40 in 4.69 at his pro day.

23. C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama

Previous rank: 12

Mosley (6-foot-2, 234 pounds) does everything you want on the field out of a linebacker. He play all downs and is good in pass coverage. His knee injury is a concern. He didn't run at the combine, but posted 40 times of 4.63 and 4.70 at his pro day.

24. Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

Previous rank: NR

Fuller (5-foot-11, 3/4, 190 pounds) has good man coverage ability, which he showed off vs. Alabama's Amari Cooper in Week 1, and is also good playing the run. He put up impressive numbers at the combine: a 4.40 40 with a 1.50 10-yard split; a 38 1/2-inch vertical; and a 6.90 three-cone drill.

25. Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State

Previous rank: 21

Carr (6-foot-2 3/8, 214 pounds) is the type of player a team might trade up to get if he drops to the bottom of Round 1. He has a very strong arm, which is a plus if you play outdoors in cold-weather cities late in the year. In the past two years he had 87 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions, with a 67 percent completion rate. He ran the 40 in 4.65 seconds at the combine and had a very good pro day in March.

26. Xavier Su'a-Filo, OL, UCLA

Previous rank: 38

Su'a-Filo (6-foot-4 1/8, 307 pounds) played some left tackle in 2013, but his best NFL position will be guard. He did not play football in 2010-11 because he was serving on a Mormon mission, but he started all 14 games as a true freshman. He ran the 40 in 4.90 (5.04 officially) and had 25 strength lifts at the combine.

27. Stephon Tuitt, DT, Notre Dame

Previous rank: 22

Tuitt (6-foot-5 1/2, 304 pounds) could be a real steal in the draft. He wasn't as good in 2013 as he was in 2012, but he plays the run well, is athletic and can play end in a 3-4 or 4-3 defense. He has 34 3/4-inch arms and had 31 reps in the bench press at the combine.

28. Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota

Previous rank: 11

Hageman (6-foot-5 7/8, 310 pounds) has size, power and explosion but lacks consistency, otherwise he would be ranked higher. He might be too tall to play defensive tackle in the NFL but is good enough to convert to end. At the combine, he ran the 40 in 4.97 seconds (5.02 officially). He has 34 1/4-inch arms and posted 32 reps in the bench press.

29. Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia

Previous rank: NR

There are some questions about Moses' work habits and toughness, but he has outstanding size for the position (6-foot-6, 314 pounds) and very long arms (35 3/8 inches). He played right tackle before moving to the left side in 2013.

30. Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State

Previous rank: 27

A three-year player, Jernigan (6-foot-1 5/8, 299 pounds) played as a true freshman in 2011 and started two games in 2012. His quickness allows him to be a very disruptive player, although he is better vs. the run. His 40 times at the combine were 4.93 and 5.09 (5.06 officially).

31. Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State

Previous rank: 18

Dennard (5-foot-10 7/8, 199 pounds) is very well coached and thrives in playing press coverage. He has good instincts and is a playmaker, with seven interceptions the past two years. He showed good speed at the combine, running the 40 in 4.42 seconds.

32. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State

Previous rank: 17

Benjamin (6-foot-5, 240 pounds) is a big target with very good hands, but his attitude is a question. At one of his workouts, he told a coach who had just arrived that he was too tired to work out. He played only two years with Florida State after redshirting in 2011. He ran the 40 in 4.53 at the combine (4.61 officially).

33. Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame

Previous rank: 23

Nix (6-foot-2 3/8, 331 pounds) missed much of last season with a torn meniscus and finished with only 27 tackles; he had 50 in 2012. He looks the part of a defensive tackle, with good size, quickness and lateral movement. He ran the 40 in 5.35 seconds at the combine and had 24 bench-press reps at his pro day.

34. Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State

Previous rank: 42

Roby (5-foot-11 1/4, 194 pounds) has good size and speed -- he ran the 40 in 4.40 at the combine -- but he was much better in 2012 than he was in 2013; he didn't play up to his potential last season and was beaten a lot in coverage. He's likely to be picked in the No. 25-40 range.

35. Dee Ford, DE, Auburn

Previous rank: NR

Ford (6-foot-2 1/8, 252 pounds) is an edge rusher who has speed and quickness but isn't big enough to be a 4-3 DE. He weighed 244 pounds at Auburn's pro day, where he put up good numbers, including a 4.59 40. He had an outstanding week at the Senior Bowl, otherwise he would not be ranked this high.

36. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Eastern Illinois

Previous rank: NR

Garoppolo (6-foot-2 1/4, 226 pounds) had 53 touchdown passes in 2013. He has good arm strength to go with good accuracy and vision. He's also a very hard worker who is tough -- he played linebacker in high school.

37. Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada

Previous rank: NR

Bitonio (6-foot-4 1/2, 302 pounds) ran the 40 in 4.91 seconds at the combine (4.97 officially). He's a good athlete who played tackle at Nevada, but he might be better at guard. He needs to get stronger, and if he does I think he'll play a long time in the NFL.

38. Ja'Wuan James, OT, Tennessee

Previous rank: NR

Not many true freshman start in the SEC, but James did, starting 49 consecutive games at right tackle for Tennessee. I think he can start as a rookie in the NFL. He's a good run blocker who plays hard every down, and he played well against Jadeveon Clowney when they were matched up.

39. Jason Verrett, CB, TCU

Previous rank: 46

Verrett (5-foot-9 1/2, 189 pounds) has very good cover skills and recorded eight interceptions in the past two years, but he's small for the position; I think he could work as a slot receiver. He posted a 40 time of 4.41 at the combine (4.38 officially).

40. Tom Savage, QB, Pittsburgh

Previous rank: NR

Savage (6-foot-3 7/8, 228 pounds) is a good leader and throws a lot like Troy Aikman. He has a very strong arm and will put it where the receiver can catch it. If he played four years at one school he might be drafted in the top half of the first round.

41. Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt

Previous rank: 45

Matthews (6-foot-3 1/8, 212 pounds) had 206 receptions for 2,800 yards over the past two years. He has great ball skills and should catch a lot of passes to move the chains, and no one will outwork him. He ran the 40 in 4.40 seconds at the combine (4.46 officially).

42. Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State

Previous rank: 44

Hyde (5-foot-11 7/8, 230 pounds) ran for 1,521 yards and 15 touchdowns last season, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. He's a power runner who has the quickness needed to be successful in the NFL. He ran the 40 in 4.62 seconds at the combine and had 19 bench-press reps.

43. Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois

Previous rank: NR

Ward (5-foot-10 5/8, 197 pounds) has everything you want in a safety except size. He isn't big, but he's a tough player with very good instincts. At his pro day, he posted a 4.47 40, 38-inch vertical and 6.89 three-cone drill.

44. Ego Ferguson, DT, LSU

Previous rank: NR

Ferguson (6-foot-2 7/8, 302 pounds) most likely would have been a first-round pick if he stayed in school for his final year. He's a very athletic lineman who is strong at the point of attack. He'll be a starter in his second year and play in the NFL for a long time.

45. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington

Previous rank: 29

Seferian-Jenkins (6-foot-5 1/2, 262 pounds) is still recovering from a foot injury and has not run or jumped for teams yet. The Huskies ran more in 2013, which contributed to him catching only 36 passes for eight touchdowns. He can and will block. He served a one-week suspension last season after a DUI arrest in the spring.

46. Jeremy Hill, RB, LSU

Previous rank: 26

Hill (6-0 5/8, 233 pounds) is a big back with speed, quickness and power. He worked out very well at his pro day, catching the ball well and running the 40-yard dash in 4.53 seconds. He had some off-field trouble at LSU last year, but his coaches say he's a good young man.

47. Cameron Fleming, OT, Stanford

Previous rank: NR

Fleming (6-foot-4 7/8, 323 pounds) is a right tackle and a very good run blocker. He left school one year early, but started for three years. I think he will play this position for a lot of years. He needs to improve as a pass blocker, and I believe he will.

48. Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State

Previous rank: 34

Robinson (6-foot-2 5/8, 207 pounds) played as a true freshman and totaled 174 catches the past two years. He's a great leaper, a skill he showed off when he made a big catch late in the fourth quarter against Michigan last season. He improved on his combine 40 at his pro day, running a 4.49.

49. Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech

Previous rank: 30

Amaro (6-foot-5 3/8, 265 pounds) will be a tough matchup in the NFL. He caught 106 passes and seven touchdowns last year. He wasn't asked to block a lot at Tech and will need work in that area. At the combine, he ran 4.63 in the 40 (4.74 officially), but his stock dropped a bit after he interviewed poorly. He also has had some off-field problems in the past.

50. Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington

Previous rank: NR

Sankey (5-foot-9 1/2, 209 pounds) has good quickness and running skills and will work hard on every play. He ranked No. 1 in the nation last year at breaking tackles. He has good hands and can be an every-down back. At the combine, he posted a 4.45 40 (4.49 officially) and 41 1/2-inch vertical.

Out of top 50: Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama (15); Loucheiz Purifoy, CB, Florida (28); Marcus Roberson, CB, Florida (31); Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State (33); Ka'Deem Carey, RB, Arizona (36); Aaron Colvin, CB, Oklahoma (37); Cyril Richardson, G, Baylor (39); Gabe Jackson, G, Mississippi State (40); Tre Mason, RB, Auburn (43); Antonio Richardson, OT, Tennessee (48); AJ McCarron, QB, Alabama (49); Jackson Jeffcoat, DE, Texas (50)

Follow Gil Brandt on Twitter @Gil_Brandt.

 

[EBF]

So if your hypothesis is correct ("McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, and CJ2K would be first round picks in any draft given their college production and workout numbers") then I do not really see why Sankey and Mason would not also be locks for the 1st round.

I think it comes down to understanding fine differences between the workout numbers. People who haven't spent a lot of time looking at this stuff usually aren't as well-equipped to put the numbers in context and understand what they mean. Here's how I'd interpret your Mendenhall vs. Sankey comparison:

Rashard Mendenhall

5'10.1" 225 pounds

BMI - 32.2

40 - 4.41

Vertical - 33.5"

Broad Jump - 9'9"

Bishop Sankey

5'9.4" 209 pounds

BMI - 30.5

40 - 4.49

Vertical - 35.5"

Broad Jump - 10'6"

If you recall my post above, you'll remember how important speed and weight are.

Look at Sankey's weight and consider these facts. Of the 27 RBs picked in the first round since the 2004 draft...

- Only 8 of 27 backs were below 214 pounds. Of those 8 backs, all 8 ran below 4.50 in the 40.

- Only 6 of 27 backs were below 210 pounds. Of those 6 backs, 5 ran 4.3X or better in the 40. The only one who didn't was Felix Jones (who btw was a bust).

So there's been exactly one guy who weighed below 210 pounds, didn't run at least a 4.3X, and still managed to be a first round pick. That was Felix Jones, who had a faster 40 time than Sankey and yet still looks like a very bad 1st round pick in hindsight.

Now remember these other facts:

- The average first round RB is 217 pounds with a 30.3 BMI, a 4.44 40, a 35.8" vertical, and a 10'2" broad jump.

Sankey's weight is well below average. His BMI is just slightly above average. His 40 and vertical were slightly below average. His broad jump was his only really outstanding mark, and that's not a drill that the league seems to value as highly as basic things like weight and speed.

Mendenhall sucked in the jumps, but your post doesn't properly acknowledge how much bigger and faster he is than Sankey. On weight, Mendenhall is the 7th heaviest back of the 27 first rounders. On BMI, he is the 4th thickest. He is almost two full BMI points above the first round average. He has the fastest 40 time of any back over 220 pounds. That is very significant. Say what you want about him, but for a big guy he had exceptional speed.

So while his workout profile has some red flags (he was pretty bad in the jumps), he's still a size/speed freak with a very rare combination of bulk and speed. As an "on paper" prospect, he is somewhat similar to Ronnie Brown. Two bigger guys with bad jumps, but blazing speed relative to their size. The closest matches for Sankey among the first rounders are probably Donald Brown and Felix Jones. I guess it's possible that someone will roll the dice on him in the late 1st, but without the 220+ pound frame and/or the 4.3X speed, I'd say it's pretty unlikely.

In my view he's a tweener who has neither the size to be considered a credible power back prospect nor the speed to be considered a Spiller/Bush/CJ type.

 

[jurb26]

Mendy was listed at 210 lbs at the combine when he ran a 4.45.

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/rashard-mendenhall?id=939

 

[EBF]

Mendy was listed at 210 lbs at the combine when he ran a 4.45.

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/rashard-mendenhall?id=939

He weighed 225 according to DraftScout:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=56664&draftyear=2008&genpos=RB

Here you go:

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php?year=2008&pos=&college=

 

[jurb26]

Mendy was listed at 210 lbs at the combine when he ran a 4.45.http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/rashard-mendenhall?id=939

He weighed 225 according to DraftScout:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=56664&draftyear=2008&genpos=RB

Here you go:

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php?year=2008&pos=&college=

Draft scout was listing his playing weight. Mendy clearly dropped weight, like Bia said earlier, for the combine. Are you saying the NFL combine website is wrong?

 

[EBF]

Mendy was listed at 210 lbs at the combine when he ran a 4.45.http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/rashard-mendenhall?id=939

He weighed 225 according to DraftScout:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=56664&draftyear=2008&genpos=RB

Here you go:

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php?year=2008&pos=&college=

Draft scout was listing his playing weight. Mendy clearly dropped weight, like Bia said earlier, for the combine. Are you saying the NFL combine website is wrong?

Yes, that is exactly what I'm saying. The height/weight numbers on the NFL.com combine site for that year were estimates made BEFORE the combine based on listed dimensions. Hence why they're wrong for so many players. Compare the numbers for Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Jamaal Charles with the actual height/weight information from DraftScout. Wrong across the board. And note that the DraftScout numbers are all identical to the numbers on the historical combine data website. Why? Because those were the actual results. Geeze.

 

[jurb26]

Mendy was listed at 210 lbs at the combine when he ran a 4.45.http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/rashard-mendenhall?id=939

He weighed 225 according to DraftScout:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=56664&draftyear=2008&genpos=RB

Here you go:

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php?year=2008&pos=&college=

Draft scout was listing his playing weight. Mendy clearly dropped weight, like Bia said earlier, for the combine. Are you saying the NFL combine website is wrong?

Yes, that is exactly what I'm saying. The height/weight numbers on the NFL.com combine site for that year were estimates made BEFORE the combine based on listed dimensions. Hence why they're wrong for so many players. Compare the numbers for Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Jamaal Charles with the actual height/weight information from DraftScout. Wrong across the board. And note that the DraftScout numbers are all identical to the numbers on the historical combine data website. Why? Because those were the actual results. Geeze.

So the NFL makes these guys weigh in but never updates their site. WTF?

 

[Biabreakable]

Mendy was listed at 210 lbs at the combine when he ran a 4.45.

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/rashard-mendenhall?id=939

He weighed 225 according to DraftScout:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=56664&draftyear=2008&genpos=RB

Here you go:

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php?year=2008&pos=&college=

EBF look at the lower left of nfldraftscouts page and you will see that they have Mendenhall listed at 210lbs at the combine. Then he weighed in at 225 on his pro day.

At least that is the way I interpet it. It is not clear to me if nfldraftscout is official or if we should consider nfl.com official. I would lean towards nfl.com but I honestly do not know for sure.

I am taking a nutrition class currently and I was also in the Army. I will tell you that I am very skeptical of any real value one can derive from BMI.

Do you realize that Labron James would be considered overweight according to BMI? It is a very flawed way of measuring a persons athletciism. Soldiers would consistently come in overweight according to BMI and then they would have to be checked for body fat.

It is not so simple as a raw height/weight score.

 

[EBF]

Mendy was listed at 210 lbs at the combine when he ran a 4.45.

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/rashard-mendenhall?id=939

He weighed 225 according to DraftScout:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=56664&draftyear=2008&genpos=RB

Here you go:

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php?year=2008&pos=&college=

EBF look at the lower left of nfldraftscouts page and you will see that they have Mendenhall listed at 210lbs at the combine. Then he weighed in at 225 on his pro day.

I don't know where you're seeing that. They clearly have 5'10" 225 as his combine height/weight.

The "before combine" text below that is simply an estimate. Like the listed height/weights you'd read on ESPN for a current college player.

In other words, that's the height/weight they had for him "before the combine." And after the combine, they adjusted his height/weigh to the actual measurements.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Speaking to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, a scout compared Eastern Illinois QB Jimmy Garoppolo to Matt Hasselbeck.
"You can win with him," was the scout's succinct summary. Garoppolo is considered a first-round dark horse, but will almost certainly slide to day two. SI's Peter King reported Monday that the Jaguars "really like" Garoppolo. Garoppolo has drawn kudos for his footwork and release, but struggles when chaos comes to the pocket. Standing in at 6-foot-2, 219 pounds, there are also questions about his arm strength.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Profootballtalk's Mike Florio is "hearing more talk" in league circles that the draft stock of this year's top-rated quarterbacks is "dropping."
SI's Peter King added fuel to this fire in his MMQB column, stating the Texans, Browns, Jaguars, and Raiders are all "strongly considering" passing on signal callers at the top of the draft, "and waiting until their second or third selections." Both Florio and King are anticipating a second-day run on quarterbacks. We still expect Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel to be first-round picks, but Teddy Bridgewater is a candidate to slide to day two, where Derek Carr, Zach Mettenberger, Tom Savage, Jimmy Garoppolo, and A.J. McCarron may also go.

Source: Profootballtalk on NBC Sports

The Jaguars "really like" Eastern Illinois QB Jimmy Garoppolo, according to the MMQB's Peter King.
"He’d likely be there high in the second round when the Jags pick again, at 39," King said of Garoppolo. The respected writer has heard that the Texans, Jaguars, Browns and Raiders "are strongly considering passing on quarterbacks with their first picks and waiting until their second or third selections." This line of thinking somewhat mimics the Super Bowl champion Seahawks, but it could be difficult to find a quarterback who limits turnovers to go along with a strong running game and stout defense. Garoppolo, in fact, has issues with poise in the pocket when unable to find an open receiver on his first read.

Source: The MMQB

The San Francisco 49ers hosted Clemson WR Martavis Bryant for a pre-draft visit on Monday.
The 49ers are looking for a vertical threat who can make plays down field, and Bryant definitely fits that mold. Not only does Bryant have speed (4.42 forty) but he brings size to the table at 6'4, 211 pounds. Bryant played opposite of Sammy Watkins, and averaged 19.7 yards a catch, finishing with 828 yards overall and seven touchdowns. The Clemson wideout has been compared to the late Chris Henry.

Source: Matt Barrows on Twitter

The Texans are hosting Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and Johnny Manziel this week or next, according to beat writer John McClain.
We absolutely expect the Texans to select Jadeveon Clowney at No. 1, but quarterbacks will definitely be in play with the team's second-round pick, or even a potential trade up. Any of the three passers could be the first quarterback off the board on May 8.

Source: John McClain on Twitter

 

[Faust]

Monday Musings: Lining up Clowney, centers, Wonderlic, GaroppoloPete Prisco

Excerpt:

I keep hearing all this talk that Eastern Illinois quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo might be a first-round pick. If he does go in the first round, somebody would be making a big mistake. I watched some Garoppolo tape last week and I saw a passer who has a quick release, a solid arm on medium throws, but a quarterback with a lot of questions. Two things bothered me: He hops in the pocket and he seems to pat the ball a lot before making a throw. Are those fixable? Maybe. He also seems to feel pressure when it's not there and leave a good pocket at times. He played in a quarterback-friendly offense, and did some good things, but for anybody to say he should be taken in the first round is crazy. I would take him in the third or fourth and realize I have a project to work on for a year or two.

 

[duaneok66]

Mendy was listed at 210 lbs at the combine when he ran a 4.45.

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/rashard-mendenhall?id=939

He weighed 225 according to DraftScout:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=56664&draftyear=2008&genpos=RB

Here you go:

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php?year=2008&pos=&college=

EBF look at the lower left of nfldraftscouts page and you will see that they have Mendenhall listed at 210lbs at the combine. Then he weighed in at 225 on his pro day.

I don't know where you're seeing that. They clearly have 5'10" 225 as his combine height/weight.

The "before combine" text below that is simply an estimate. Like the listed height/weights you'd read on ESPN for a current college player.

In other words, that's the height/weight they had for him "before the combine." And after the combine, they adjusted his height/weigh to the actual measurements.

Mendenhall was 225 - never looked like 210 while he played in the NFL.

 

[Xue]

Mendy was listed at 210 lbs at the combine when he ran a 4.45.http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/rashard-mendenhall?id=939

He weighed 225 according to DraftScout:

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=56664&draftyear=2008&genpos=RB

Here you go:

http://nflcombineresults.com/nflcombinedata.php?year=2008&pos=&college=

Draft scout was listing his playing weight. Mendy clearly dropped weight, like Bia said earlier, for the combine. Are you saying the NFL combine website is wrong?

Yes, that is exactly what I'm saying. The height/weight numbers on the NFL.com combine site for that year were estimates made BEFORE the combine based on listed dimensions. Hence why they're wrong for so many players. Compare the numbers for Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Jamaal Charles with the actual height/weight information from DraftScout. Wrong across the board. And note that the DraftScout numbers are all identical to the numbers on the historical combine data website. Why? Because those were the actual results. Geeze.

So the NFL makes these guys weigh in but never updates their site. WTF?

All their profiles pre-2009 have their "listed" dimensions, not the actual "measured" ones.

 

[Brewtown]

I think McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, and CJ2K would be first round picks in any draft given their college production and workout numbers.

We'll agree to disagree. It can't be "proven" one way or another.

I don't think Gil Brandt's take is on the money at all. If the reason there won't be any 1st round RBs this year is because the league is devaluing the position, show me the RB prospects who have a good case for going in the first round. There aren't any. When the league starts passing on physical freaks with strong college production, then you'll know something is up. For now it's much ado about nothing.

That is fine we disagree.

I think HS already mentioned this but I looked up the combine numbers for these players who you claim would be 1st round picks in any draft.

Rashard Mendenhall 5' 11" 4.45 40 26 BR 33.5" vert 9' 9" broad

Draft scout lists him as 225lbs but this was after the combine when he put the weight back on http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=56664&draftyear=2008&genpos=RB

2005 Illinois Big Ten RB 10 48 218 4.5 0 13 82 6.3 2 61 300 4.9 2

2006 Illinois Big Ten RB 12 78 640 8.2 5 12 164 13.7 1 90 804 8.9 6

*2007 Illinois Big Ten RB 13 262 1681 6.4 17 34 318 9.4 2 296 1999 6.8 19 http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/rashard-mendenhall-1.html

Bishop Sankey 5' 9" 209lbs 4.49 40 26 BR 35.5 vert 10' 6" broad http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/bishop-sankey?id=2543682

*2011 Washington Pac-12 JR RB 12 28 187 6.7 1 6 14 2.3 0 34 201 5.9 1

*2012 Washington Pac-12 JR RB 13 289 1439 5.0 16 33 249 7.5 0 322 1688 5.2 16

*2013 Washington Pac-12 JR 13 327 1870 5.7 20 28 304 10.9 1 355 2174 6.1 21 http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/bishop-sankey-1.html

So unless you are going with the post combine weight for Mendenhall I see little difference between him and Mendenhall and Sankey has better college performance than Mendenhall had. So wouldn't that make Sankey a lock for the 1st round if your criteria were correct?

Tre Mason 5' 8" 207 pounds 4.50 40 38.5" vertical, 10'6" broad jump.

*2011 Auburn SEC JR RB 12 28 161 5.8 1 28 161 5.8 1

2012 Auburn SEC JR RB 12 171 1002 5.9 8 7 86 12.3 0 178 1088 6.1 8

2013 Auburn SEC JR RB 14 317 1816 5.7 23 12 163 13.6 1 329 1979 6.0 24

Mason is also very close to Mendenhalls combine numbers. .05 seconds slower in the 40 (can this possibly matter?) better jump numbers and shorter more compact player (which for RB imo is a good thing).

McFadden was drafted by Al Davis RIP who is known to overvalue 40 times with his draft picks and who drafted a ton of busts. It is hard to say if another team would have pulled the trigger on McFadden or not in the 1st round. Any Al Davis pick to me should be taken with a grain of salt.

So if your hypothesis is correct ("McFadden, Stewart, Mendenhall, and CJ2K would be first round picks in any draft given their college production and workout numbers") then I do not really see why Sankey and Mason would not also be locks for the 1st round.

eta- Lache Seastrunk 5' 9" 201lbs 4.51 40 15 BR 41.5 vert 11' 1" broad http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/lache-seastrunk?id=2543559

*2012 Baylor Big 12 JR RB 13 131 1012 7.7 7 9 107 11.9 1 140 1119 8.0 8

*2013 Baylor Big 12 JR RB 11 158 1177 7.4 11 158 1177 7.4 11 http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/lache-seastrunk-1.html

After a somewhat disappointing showing at the NFL Combine, Seastrunk boosted his numbers in Waco, recording a 4.46 40-yard dash after running a 4.51 in Indianapolis. He has elusive moves with the ability to create yards on his own, but the pedestrian 40 time put his straight-line speed into question.Seastrunk finished among the Combine leaders in the vertical jump (41.5-inches) and broad jump (11-foot-2) and rested on those numbers Wednesday, but he did post impressive times in the 3-cone drill (6.81), short shuttle (4.31) and long shuttle (11.33). Overall it was a positive day for the borderline top-100 prospect. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/24492184/pro-days-baylors-seastrunk-improves-combine-times

This is a great post!!!

 

[Faust]

Davis: Teddy Bridgewater too good not to rise again in draft

By Mike Huguenin

College Football 24/7 writer

Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been disparaged and seen his game picked apart the past few weeks, but he remains the class of the quarterback class in this draft, NFL Media analyst Daniel Jeremiah says.

Jeremiah had Bridgewater as the leader of his top tier of quarterbacks Monday on NFL Network's "Path to the Draft." Fellow analyst Curtis Conway also has Bridgewater No. 1, and while analyst Charles Davis has Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel as his top signal-caller, he said he believes Bridgewater is due to rise again on draft boards.

"It's not a huge disagreement," Davis said. "I like Manziel at No. 1 ... but I think Bridgewater at No. 2 -- he's going to rise again. He's getting beat up all the time now. That's too much for me. I've watched too much production from him to get beat up like that."

Bridgewater, once considered by many a potential No. 1 overall pick, has seen his stock plummet after a much-criticized pro day workout that NFL Media analyst Mike Mayock described as "average at best."

In NFL.com's latest mock drafts, Bridgewater is still projected by most analysts to be a top-10 pick. Jeremiah actually has Bridgewater going No. 26 to the Browns, but he has said that projection has less to do with his personal evaluation of Bridgewater and more about the current buzz in NFL circles.

The rest of Jeremiah's top tier of quarterbacks was Manziel, UCF's Blake Bortles and Fresno State's Derek Carr.

At the top of Jeremiah's second tier is Eastern Illinois' Jimmy Garoppolo, whom Jeremiah praised for his "quick feet (and) quick release." No. 2 in the second tier is Alabama's AJ McCarron, whom Jeremiah called "a very good decision-maker," followed by Pitt's Tom Savage, whom Jeremiah said has a huge arm that enables him to make throws no other QB in the draft could make.

LSU's Zach Mettenberger and Georgia's Aaron Murray rounded out the second tier. Jeremiah said one reason he has Mettenberger ahead of Murray is that Mettenberger's "size and tools fit more offenses" than Murray's. Jeremiah said Murray best fits in a "pure West Coast scheme" and probably wouldn't fit as well on a team such as Cleveland, where his limited arm strength might not work as well in windy conditions.

Davis has Murray at the top of his second tier. He says Murray has an "underestimated" arm and is sort of "a poor man's Drew Brees." Conway said he likes McCarron the best among the second tier.

Jeremiah has San Jose State's David Fales (a "very efficient player") at the top of his third tier of quarterbacks. Clemson's Tajh Boyd (his running ability is "a nice bonus") is second in the third tier, followed by North Carolina's Bryn Renner and Virginia Tech's Logan Thomas (called "wildly inconsistent" by Jeremiah. Conway said he thinks Boyd belongs in the second tier.

Mike Huguenin can be reached at mike.huguenin@nfl.com. You also can follow him on Twitter @MikeHuguenin.