Dynasty Rankings (5 Viewers)

[peter griffin]

It was interesting to hear Simms/Nantz discuss Rex Ryan comparing Greene to Michael Turner today during the broadcast, the comparison that got tossed around on this board and in the draft media was more of a Rudi Johnson (meaning a 3.9 YPC plodder type who could have 3 or 4 good fantasy season before whatever physical skills he had deteriorate). I've been very impressed by Greene in these playoff games. Not a top 10 dynasty RB going forward, but he certainly has rewarded my faith in trading Addai for him + 2010 1.6 in week 5 when he was rooted firmly on the bench.

 

[EBF]

I don't think I've ever seen Reggie run with as much power as he did yesterday. I don't know if it was the hype from the game or what but he really laid it out there yesterday. Maybe he can still "get it" despite being in the league as long as he has. Not only that, but his burst yesterday was unreal. His acceleration on that TD run when he spun away and decided to break through was unlike I've ever seen from him.

I'm not going to suggest that Reggie Bush has been anything but a disappointment over the course of his career, but I think people forget the role that injuries have played in that. He hasn't been healthy all of these years when he's been a "bust."When healthy, he has made some standout plays in critical junctures (the game yesterday, the long TD vs. Chicago in the playoffs, etc). He's not a terrible NFL player. He's just not the superstar we expected.

I agree and it's funny you mention that because in the Draft threads I've seen several people project CJ Spiller to Bush and act disappointed. Maybe they don't play in PPR leagues but that would be a very nice career for Spiller.

Yea, that's true and that's one of the reasons why I'm having a hard time bumping Spiller out of my top 2-3 rookies for PPR leagues even though I have concerns about his pure rushing ability. He's a dynamic athlete and the team that drafts him will find a way to get him involved. Let's just hope that team isn't the Raiders or Browns.

 

[Deuceman]

This is irrelevant, really. The question is whether Ricky or Greene/Brown has more dynasty value.

Whether or not you can get a comparable prospect in the rookie draft doesn't help us answer the question.

Wrong. It's not a question of absolute dynasty value; it's a cost-benefit analysis. In this case, the benefit is that he likely wins his league (if you assume that Ricky will be a top 5 back down the stretch which I believe he will). The cost is a future prospect, but in this case he has a NUMBER of good young prospects.I said it repeatedly, but in THIS CIRCUMSTANCE, if you can trade Green for Ricky I would do it.

Don't make this trade under ANY CIRCUMSTANCE...........Classic sell high. Ricky will not sustain last nights performance thru the rest of the year.

 

[gheemony]

EBF: Ricky W. struck a blow that Shonn G will likely will never answer -- a foerarm shiver in a meaningful ff ball week. If you started SG today, hope you're closer to the top TWO in next year's draft than top 4 (at which point you will simply draft THIS YEAR'S VERSION of Shonnnn Greeneeee).

Wonder what people think of a Ricky for Greene trade now.

ROTFLMAO

 

[hostile]

A little trade help, if possible guys...I've just been offered Ray Rice for Cutler/Beanie.This is a PPR team which I am trying to rebuild (took over the team this season after the previous owner drove it into the ground).Currenty have :

QB Jay Cutler, ChiQB Kyle Orton, DenQB Michael Vick, PhiQB Brian Brohm, BufRB Chris Wells, AriRB Willis McGahee, BalRB Justin Forsett, SeaRB Mike Bell, NORB Jason Snelling, AtlRB Danny Ware, NYgRB Rashad Jennings, JaxWR Derrick Mason, BalWR Nate Burleson, SeaWR Steve Breaston, AriWR Pierre Garcon, IndWR Mario Manningham, NYgWR James Jones, GBWR Legedu Naanee, SDWR Brian Robiskie, CleIR Jarrett Dillard, JaxTE John Carlson, SeaTE David Thomas, NOPK Lawrence, Tynes NYgDST NE

Rice is obviously a very attractive prospect, but I cant help but think I'd be better off with Cutler/Wells. Cutler has nowhere but up, and Wells finished the year strong.Thoughts?

 

[SSOG]

Thoughts?

It's a no-brainer. Take Rice. Cutler has recently found himself in the unfamiliar position of being a replaceable dynasty asset at QB, and Wells flashed a little bit of talent, but ultimately just finished a mediocre rookie season that saw him fail to break 800 yards rushing or relegate Tim Hightower to the bench. Wells' upside is lower than Rice's current reality.I'd also like to take this opportunity to point out that there's no such thing as a "stable fantasy RB2" like there is at WR. Few guys ranked in the 10-20 range at the beginning of the year find themselves anywhere near there at the end of the year. A very small percentage of them will step into the top 10, but by and large, they tend to just fall off the map. Witness F&L's RB rankings from September 9th, 2009, specifically the guys outside of the top 2 tiers. The RBs ranked from 9 to 24 were, in order: Moreno, McFadden, Ronnie Brown, Jacobs, Kevin Smith, Slaton, BarberIII, Wells, Lynch, Stewart, Rice, Felix, Pierre, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Portis. Of those 16 RBs, I count two that F&L has in a higher tier today than he did at the beginning of the season (Rice and Stewart). Well, technically 3, because Felix jumped from the top of Tier 4 to the bottom of Tier 3, but his arbitrary value score only went from 60 to 69- not a meteoric rise by any stretch. Three other RBs managed to finish in the same tier that they started in, but two of the backs (Moreno and Wells) only managed it because of their pedigree and youth, rather than because of anything they did on the field. The third RB (Pierre Thomas) only managed to retain his value because he had so little value to begin with- he went from 21st to 19th despite seeing his value fall from 59 to 56, just because everyone else's value fell even more.

That leaves the bulk of the RBs- McFadden, Brown, Jacobs, Smith, Slaton, Barber, Lynch, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Portis. That's 10 of the 16 backs in question, and they all saw their value take a catastrophic swan dive. Many of them (Barber, Jacobs, Smith, Slaton, Lynch, Portis) looked like the kind of dynasty assets that you could count on being an RB2 for a while to come, but the reality is that RBs turn over too quickly. There really aren't any "perpetual RB2" guys out there, guys like a Santonio Holmes. For the most part, if you're not already considered an elite RB, one of two things will happen- you'll either make the jump and become an elite RB or, far more frequently, you'll fall off the map with surprising suddenness.

Right now, Wells finds himself in that uncomfortable ranking range. Personally, if it were me, I'd be trying like hell to leverage all the RBs I have in that range in order to try and move up to grab an elite talent. Instead of a bunch of 10-16 type RBs, I'd rather have a single top-6 RB and a handful of prospects, longshots, and 20-30 type guys. The 20-30 guys often carry just as much potential for reward, but with far less cost. If I owned your team, moving Wells for Rice is exactly the type of move I'd be working hard trying to make, and the fact that another owner actually approached YOU with the deal (and the fact that the upgrade only costs Cutler, a very expendable asset) only makes it that much sweeter.

 

[Tau837]

Thoughts?

It's a no-brainer. Take Rice.

SSOG provided a good explanation, but to me, it's pretty simple. Neither Cutler nor Wells are studs. Chances of either becoming a stud in the near future are not particularly good. Rice is a stud. Someone expressed it well earlier in the thread, saying that a primary goal should always be to trade non-studs for studs. It's really as simple as that.

 

[EthnicFury]

In terms of conversion rate, 19 reps of 225 is about the equivalent to maxing out at 450 lbs.

Interesting. What is the conversion equation?

The conversion factor is "search google for a bench press calculator and plug in the numbers". Here's a link to the calculator I used, which seems to go into the formulas at the bottom of the page. Here's a link to another calculator I found just now while searching for a link to that first calculator. The second calculator estimates Harvin's max at 367.5 instead of 450, but I prefer the first calculator because the number it produces sounds much more impressive.

Plugging my own personal (admittedly much smaller) numbers in to test the accuracy of those calculators:Junior year of HS I could put up a set of 20 reps of 135 pounds, and my 1 rep max was 225. The second calculator you linked (the 367.5 one) returns my max of 225 exactly, on the dot, when I plug in that set. The first one (the 450) grossly overestimates my abilities, returning a max of 286 pounds (a number I never approached and likely never will).

Long story short, it's a small sample size but I'd guess Harvin's max is a lot closer to 370 than to 450.

 

[FUBAR]

Thoughts?

It's a no-brainer. Take Rice. Cutler has recently found himself in the unfamiliar position of being a replaceable dynasty asset at QB, and Wells flashed a little bit of talent, but ultimately just finished a mediocre rookie season that saw him fail to break 800 yards rushing or relegate Tim Hightower to the bench. Wells' upside is lower than Rice's current reality.I'd also like to take this opportunity to point out that there's no such thing as a "stable fantasy RB2" like there is at WR. Few guys ranked in the 10-20 range at the beginning of the year find themselves anywhere near there at the end of the year. A very small percentage of them will step into the top 10, but by and large, they tend to just fall off the map. Witness F&L's RB rankings from September 9th, 2009, specifically the guys outside of the top 2 tiers. The RBs ranked from 9 to 24 were, in order: Moreno, McFadden, Ronnie Brown, Jacobs, Kevin Smith, Slaton, BarberIII, Wells, Lynch, Stewart, Rice, Felix, Pierre, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Portis. Of those 16 RBs, I count two that F&L has in a higher tier today than he did at the beginning of the season (Rice and Stewart). Well, technically 3, because Felix jumped from the top of Tier 4 to the bottom of Tier 3, but his arbitrary value score only went from 60 to 69- not a meteoric rise by any stretch. Three other RBs managed to finish in the same tier that they started in, but two of the backs (Moreno and Wells) only managed it because of their pedigree and youth, rather than because of anything they did on the field. The third RB (Pierre Thomas) only managed to retain his value because he had so little value to begin with- he went from 21st to 19th despite seeing his value fall from 59 to 56, just because everyone else's value fell even more.

That leaves the bulk of the RBs- McFadden, Brown, Jacobs, Smith, Slaton, Barber, Lynch, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Portis. That's 10 of the 16 backs in question, and they all saw their value take a catastrophic swan dive. Many of them (Barber, Jacobs, Smith, Slaton, Lynch, Portis) looked like the kind of dynasty assets that you could count on being an RB2 for a while to come, but the reality is that RBs turn over too quickly. There really aren't any "perpetual RB2" guys out there, guys like a Santonio Holmes. For the most part, if you're not already considered an elite RB, one of two things will happen- you'll either make the jump and become an elite RB or, far more frequently, you'll fall off the map with surprising suddenness.

Right now, Wells finds himself in that uncomfortable ranking range. Personally, if it were me, I'd be trying like hell to leverage all the RBs I have in that range in order to try and move up to grab an elite talent. Instead of a bunch of 10-16 type RBs, I'd rather have a single top-6 RB and a handful of prospects, longshots, and 20-30 type guys. The 20-30 guys often carry just as much potential for reward, but with far less cost. If I owned your team, moving Wells for Rice is exactly the type of move I'd be working hard trying to make, and the fact that another owner actually approached YOU with the deal (and the fact that the upgrade only costs Cutler, a very expendable asset) only makes it that much sweeter.

the only counterargument is if you believe Wells will make the jump to the RB1 level. He might, but Rice isn't much older and we know he's elite. If it cost more than Cutler I'd need to think about it but as is, it's an easy choice. Always always package a replaceable talent (for FF anyway, Cutler is) with a guy who might become who you're getting.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

EBF: Ricky W. struck a blow that Shonn G will likely will never answer -- a foerarm shiver in a meaningful ff ball week. If you started SG today, hope you're closer to the top TWO in next year's draft than top 4 (at which point you will simply draft THIS YEAR'S VERSION of Shonnnn Greeneeee).

Wonder what people think of a Ricky for Greene trade now.

ROTFLMAO

If they won their league, they feel good. If they are skilled drafters and can replace a player like Greene, they aren't worried. It's not like they traded Stewart or someone like that.

 

[RockHard]

Thoughts?

It's a no-brainer. Take Rice. Cutler has recently found himself in the unfamiliar position of being a replaceable dynasty asset at QB, and Wells flashed a little bit of talent, but ultimately just finished a mediocre rookie season that saw him fail to break 800 yards rushing or relegate Tim Hightower to the bench. Wells' upside is lower than Rice's current reality.

I respectfully disagree, one year ago you could have made the following declaration:

Wells Rice flashed a little bit of talent, but ultimately just finished a mediocre rookie season that saw him fail to break 800 500 yards rushing or relegate Tim Hightower Willis McGahee to the bench.

It is rather shortsighted to say that because player A couldn't supplant player B then they must be inferior. Talented backs often bide their time behind the incumbent starter for any number of reasons, notable examples are D. Williams, Rice, and Mendenhall. Wells is a talented back in his own right, who was identified as an elite level of runner at both the high school and collegiate level. I could fully see Wells matching Rice's current rushing numbers next season, in fact they have the same number of rushing TDs this year. Will he match Rice's reception totals? probably not, but his production in that area isnt enough to justify trading away Cutler. A QB coming of a 27 TD season with one of the worst offensive lines in the league, no semblance of a running game, and a converted return man & second year receiver with 0 career catches as his starting pass catchers.

 

[FUBAR]

The example I posted doesn't take into account the rest of your roster. It might make sense to go with the Bryant/Moss combo if your team is loaded and you don't really need the depth of Moss/Wayne or the youth movement of Bryant/Crabtree.

The main point is that a team whose players all peak at the same time will have an edge over a team of equivalent overall talent whose players peak at different times. This isn't really disputable. It's simple mathematics.

Just because you go with Moss/Wayne doesn't mean your team is unbalanced and you won't be a contender tomorrow. You could very easily trade those two after the season for a congruent pair of younger receivers with similar talent.

Rosters are fluid in dynasty leagues. People talk about picks being currency. Well, players are currency too. You can fairly easily convert old players into young players and vice versa (that would actually be the best reason for picking a Moss/Bryant combo - if you felt they were clearly the two most valuable players offered to you).

You want your functional value to overlap though. You don't want to have Moss go off between 2010-2011 and Bryant go off between 2012-2013. It would be much better to have both Moss/Wayne going off between 2010-2011 or both Bryant/Crabtree going off between 2012-2013 because their functional value will overlap and stack.

Depends on the league, it's often difficult to trade older players for anything near their value. Which doesn't mean they're worthless, just that you don't take the older players with the intent of dealing them later. It's entirely possible to keep contending by acquiring undervalued older players but you're hoping they don't fall off the cliff while you need them and if given the choice, I take Crabtree and Bryant most of the time. It is just so much harder to acquire young core players, I'd probably get Moss and Wayne for either Bryant or Crabtree right now in most leagues. That said, I'm a happy owner of both older players - Moss and Brees to name two, and young guys like Bryant (1.01) and Maclin. I like the balance but then, I haven't won the league in a few years despite always being in the top 1/4.

 

[FUBAR]

Thoughts?

It's a no-brainer. Take Rice. Cutler has recently found himself in the unfamiliar position of being a replaceable dynasty asset at QB, and Wells flashed a little bit of talent, but ultimately just finished a mediocre rookie season that saw him fail to break 800 yards rushing or relegate Tim Hightower to the bench. Wells' upside is lower than Rice's current reality.

I respectfully disagree, one year ago you could have made the following declaration:

Wells Rice flashed a little bit of talent, but ultimately just finished a mediocre rookie season that saw him fail to break 800 500 yards rushing or relegate Tim Hightower Willis McGahee to the bench.

It is rather shortsighted to say that because player A couldn't supplant player B then they must be inferior. Talented backs often bide their time behind the incumbent starter for any number of reasons, notable examples are D. Williams, Rice, and Mendenhall. Wells is a talented back in his own right, who was identified as an elite level of runner at both the high school and collegiate level. I could fully see Wells matching Rice's current rushing numbers next season, in fact they have the same number of rushing TDs this year. Will he match Rice's reception totals? probably not, but his production in that area isnt enough to justify trading away Cutler. A QB coming of a 27 TD season with one of the worst offensive lines in the league, no semblance of a running game, and a converted return man & second year receiver with 0 career catches as his starting pass catchers.

That's the key IMO - you're predicting that Wells becomes Rice-level. If you think Cutler is a cornerstone for a team, great but he was barely startable in 1QB 12 team leagues and even if he does become a good starter, I don't see him becoming anything special in Chicago. Maybe they'll acquire some elite WRs, but I've got to think another QB + Rice will be better than Wells + Cutler for the next couple years.That said, if you believe in the "get players before they break-out and trade my studs to get future studs" theory (it does work for some), then I can see keeping Wells/Cutler.

 

[kremenull]

My other gripes would be that I would rather have Nicks and Crabtree than Harvin. Harvin's electric, but these are big huge strong fast guys who have just as good skills at route running as Harvin has...Nicks sure flashed some great YAC skills...which is Harvin's big upside.

I like him, but I think I would just rather have Nicks and Crabtree at this point. In fact, I do...I own those two in multiple leagues and Harvin in none (anymore)

Can you unpack the bolded for us, please? How does that sentence describe Nicks and Crabtree but not Harvin? I understand that you're saying you'd rather have Crabtree or Nicks, but you didn't explain the difference between those two and Harvin.

What I'm trying to say is that they're just as good after the catch (Harvin is perhaps more elusive than Crabtree, but Crabtree is a good tackle-breaker) but they're also bigger and stronger...easier to get the ball to, better potential in the redzone IMO, and Nicks and Crabtree both run good routes.I just see them as equal almost everywhere...the almost being the size. All 3 are great at everything...but Nicks and Crabtree have the height and strength that I think Harvin lacks. And Harvin will never be able to just go out there and grow 6 inches.

I'll bet you a 6-pack of Fat Tire Ale that Harvin is stronger than both Nicks and Crabtree. He was also a bigger red-zone presence than either of those guys in 2009.

I'll second that.....Harvin is a beast in the weight room, this wouldn't even be close as Harvin would blow these guys away in an all-out strength test, not even lb-for-lb, he could simply outlift them period even though he gives up 15-20 lbs of body weight to them.And to say that Nicks or Crabtree is as good as Harvin after the catch is preposterous......neither are in the same galaxy as him in RAC ability. While Nicks and Crabtree have their strengths as WRs, and some would prefer them to Harvin and I don't have issue with that (although I don't prefer either to Harvin), but this case you are making for preferring them over Harvin just doesn't compute

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Thoughts?

It's a no-brainer. Take Rice.

This is a boon period for dynasty QBs and you can replace Cutler rather cheaply. I'm a believer in Wells, but Rice has a much brighter future imo.

 

[gheemony]

Thoughts?

It's a no-brainer. Take Rice.

SSOG provided a good explanation, but to me, it's pretty simple. Neither Cutler nor Wells are studs. Chances of either becoming a stud in the near future are not particularly good. Rice is a stud. Someone expressed it well earlier in the thread, saying that a primary goal should always be to trade non-studs for studs. It's really as simple as that.

Take the deal. You have lots of room for prospects on your roster. Take the proven stud and build around him by hoping some of your prospects hit. I doubt Cutler is a difference maker by the time your team is a contender.

 

[gheemony]

EBF: Ricky W. struck a blow that Shonn G will likely will never answer -- a foerarm shiver in a meaningful ff ball week. If you started SG today, hope you're closer to the top TWO in next year's draft than top 4 (at which point you will simply draft THIS YEAR'S VERSION of Shonnnn Greeneeee).

Wonder what people think of a Ricky for Greene trade now.

ROTFLMAO

If they won their league, they feel good. If they are skilled drafters and can replace a player like Greene, they aren't worried. It's not like they traded Stewart or someone like that.

IF they won their league. How many actually did that? I think some guessed 33% or less. And some of that might have been in spite of Ricky (remember Lex?). More likely than not, the owner is cringing at that trade right now. Not all, but most. It's like poker. Sure some of the guys playing A-J won the hand, but doesn't mean it was the right play.

 

[hostile]

Thoughts?

It's a no-brainer. Take Rice. Cutler has recently found himself in the unfamiliar position of being a replaceable dynasty asset at QB, and Wells flashed a little bit of talent, but ultimately just finished a mediocre rookie season that saw him fail to break 800 yards rushing or relegate Tim Hightower to the bench. Wells' upside is lower than Rice's current reality.I'd also like to take this opportunity to point out that there's no such thing as a "stable fantasy RB2" like there is at WR. Few guys ranked in the 10-20 range at the beginning of the year find themselves anywhere near there at the end of the year. A very small percentage of them will step into the top 10, but by and large, they tend to just fall off the map. Witness F&L's RB rankings from September 9th, 2009, specifically the guys outside of the top 2 tiers. The RBs ranked from 9 to 24 were, in order: Moreno, McFadden, Ronnie Brown, Jacobs, Kevin Smith, Slaton, BarberIII, Wells, Lynch, Stewart, Rice, Felix, Pierre, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Portis. Of those 16 RBs, I count two that F&L has in a higher tier today than he did at the beginning of the season (Rice and Stewart). Well, technically 3, because Felix jumped from the top of Tier 4 to the bottom of Tier 3, but his arbitrary value score only went from 60 to 69- not a meteoric rise by any stretch. Three other RBs managed to finish in the same tier that they started in, but two of the backs (Moreno and Wells) only managed it because of their pedigree and youth, rather than because of anything they did on the field. The third RB (Pierre Thomas) only managed to retain his value because he had so little value to begin with- he went from 21st to 19th despite seeing his value fall from 59 to 56, just because everyone else's value fell even more.

That leaves the bulk of the RBs- McFadden, Brown, Jacobs, Smith, Slaton, Barber, Lynch, Tomlinson, Westbrook, Portis. That's 10 of the 16 backs in question, and they all saw their value take a catastrophic swan dive. Many of them (Barber, Jacobs, Smith, Slaton, Lynch, Portis) looked like the kind of dynasty assets that you could count on being an RB2 for a while to come, but the reality is that RBs turn over too quickly. There really aren't any "perpetual RB2" guys out there, guys like a Santonio Holmes. For the most part, if you're not already considered an elite RB, one of two things will happen- you'll either make the jump and become an elite RB or, far more frequently, you'll fall off the map with surprising suddenness.

Right now, Wells finds himself in that uncomfortable ranking range. Personally, if it were me, I'd be trying like hell to leverage all the RBs I have in that range in order to try and move up to grab an elite talent. Instead of a bunch of 10-16 type RBs, I'd rather have a single top-6 RB and a handful of prospects, longshots, and 20-30 type guys. The 20-30 guys often carry just as much potential for reward, but with far less cost. If I owned your team, moving Wells for Rice is exactly the type of move I'd be working hard trying to make, and the fact that another owner actually approached YOU with the deal (and the fact that the upgrade only costs Cutler, a very expendable asset) only makes it that much sweeter.

This is pretty much what I was thinking other than I do think Wells does have the pedigree and ability (which we have spoken at length about before) to make that jump into the "elite" club. I'm just not sure his situation will benefit him. It is also a concern that he couldnt relegate Tim Freakin' Hightower to backup duties.However, Rice is just as young, and is already a proven commodity on a run-based team.

Yes, the other owner approached me, but this is a trade I was hammering him over in pre-season. He hummed and hawed for nearly a month over it, finally deciding to decline. I do find it odd that he rekindled the trade, especially at this time.

Thanks SSOG, and everyone else who replied.

 

[RockHard]

Always always package a replaceable talent (for FF anyway, Cutler is)

you can replace Cutler rather cheaply.

Neither Cutler nor Wells are studs.

I doubt Cutler is a difference maker by the time your team is a contender.

Last time I checked Cutler was a 26 yo QB with 3 top 12 finishes including a top 5 finish in 2008. He has never missed a game due to injury and averages 1.5 touchdowns per start. IMO Cutler is a stud who will still be a relevant in FF circles the next 8-10 years.Who are all these other quarterbacks that he can be easily replaced by?

 

[hostile]

Always always package a replaceable talent (for FF anyway, Cutler is)

you can replace Cutler rather cheaply.

Neither Cutler nor Wells are studs.

I doubt Cutler is a difference maker by the time your team is a contender.

Last time I checked Cutler was a 26 yo QB with 3 top 12 finishes including a top 5 finish in 2008. He has never missed a game due to injury and averages 1.5 touchdowns per start. IMO Cutler is a stud who will still be a relevant in FF circles the next 8-10 years.Who are all these other quarterbacks that he can be easily replaced by?

I think you have to look at the format.If this was my 12 team start 2QB dynasty, with 6pt/ QB TD, there would be no way in HELL I would do this deal w/o some sort of QB compensation.In a 12 team start 1 QB league with 4 pt QB TDs, the majority of points do not come from the QB position - they come from WR/RB - so I'm not too worried about losing Cutler at this point.

 

[az_prof]

Always always package a replaceable talent (for FF anyway, Cutler is)

you can replace Cutler rather cheaply.

Neither Cutler nor Wells are studs.

I doubt Cutler is a difference maker by the time your team is a contender.

Last time I checked Cutler was a 26 yo QB with 3 top 12 finishes including a top 5 finish in 2008. He has never missed a game due to injury and averages 1.5 touchdowns per start. IMO Cutler is a stud who will still be a relevant in FF circles the next 8-10 years.Who are all these other quarterbacks that he can be easily replaced by?

You can cite statistics if you want, but I watched him play and he looked horrible. Horrible. You have to take those Denver stats with a grain of salt too because how much of that was his coach and WRs making him look good.

 

[RockHard]

Currenty have :

QB Jay Cutler, Chi

QB Kyle Orton, Den

QB Michael Vick, Phi

QB Brian Brohm, Buf

Who are you going to replace him with? Not that I'm overly concerned with your team but I would like to see how people dismissive of Cutler answer the (Wells + Cutler = Rice + X) equation.

 

[RockHard]

You can cite statistics if you want, but I watched him play and he looked horrible. Horrible. You have to take those Denver stats with a grain of salt too because how much of that was his coach and WRs making him look good.

Using that logic couldnt you also discount his poor performance this season due to "his coach and WRs"?

 

[hostile]

Currenty have :

QB Jay Cutler, Chi

QB Kyle Orton, Den

QB Michael Vick, Phi

QB Brian Brohm, Buf

Who are you going to replace him with? Not that I'm overly concerned with your team but I would like to see how people dismissive of Cutler answer the (Wells + Cutler = Rice + X) equation.

I have no problem rolling with Orton for this year, and maybe I can pull a QB out of the ranks of backup around the league or via the draft. I am also placing a bit of faith in Vick going to a team like STL and possibly being a viable warm body for this year.

 

[FUBAR]

Always always package a replaceable talent (for FF anyway, Cutler is)

you can replace Cutler rather cheaply.

Neither Cutler nor Wells are studs.

I doubt Cutler is a difference maker by the time your team is a contender.

Last time I checked Cutler was a 26 yo QB with 3 top 12 finishes including a top 5 finish in 2008. He has never missed a game due to injury and averages 1.5 touchdowns per start. IMO Cutler is a stud who will still be a relevant in FF circles the next 8-10 years.Who are all these other quarterbacks that he can be easily replaced by?

So he's startable, great. Unless he's elite, he's replaceable. He scored roughly 1.5 more points per game than Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell, or David Garrard. I believe he'll improve next year but he's hardly a core player you'd build around.

 

[MAC_32]

Seller's remorse settling in, had both Harvin and Rice, thought Rice's production was more tied to Favre and got a better offer for him so sent him elsewhere.

I love Harvin, but I think I got rid of the wrong guy. Sidney is turning into an elite WR, quickly.

 

[munchkin]

Always always package a replaceable talent (for FF anyway, Cutler is)

you can replace Cutler rather cheaply.

Neither Cutler nor Wells are studs.

I doubt Cutler is a difference maker by the time your team is a contender.

Last time I checked Cutler was a 26 yo QB with 3 top 12 finishes including a top 5 finish in 2008. He has never missed a game due to injury and averages 1.5 touchdowns per start. IMO Cutler is a stud who will still be a relevant in FF circles the next 8-10 years.Who are all these other quarterbacks that he can be easily replaced by?

This year in the BTR Leagues .05 pts/yd passing .1pts/yd rushing and 6pts/td Cutler scored roughly 25 pts in wks 2-4, roughly 36 pts in weeks 6,9,16 and 17 in the other nine games he scored 15 (one game) or less with a low of three. My guess is that i you were counting on Cutler as your one you weren't playing him in week 16. Cutler has been a streaky QB with very high scoring games that are skewed if you look at his average pts. scored. Go to Pro-Football reference and look at his games. Plus I don't trust his mental make-up. Hopefully his attitude changes but based on his history i don't know if you can count on it.

 

[fsufan]

where are you guys putting schaub in your QB dynasty rankings

 

[inzanitee]

where are you guys putting schaub in your QB dynasty rankings

6-8ish.

 

[footballsavvy]

Cutler IS an elite QB who had a below average year.

last 4 games would have played out to 40 TD's and 4000+ yards over 16 games. That's an elite pace. Since those were his last 4 games and not his 1st four games, I would say a top 5 year from Cutler next year is reasonable with the emmergence of Aromashadu and the potential to trade for/draft another WR as well.

One thing I am sure of is they will build the offense around Cutler's strengths. Usually teams do not build around player's with average talent.

Having said that, Ray Rice is a top 3 overall stud and landing someone of his worth at 23 years old does not happen often in FF.

It is an intriguing trade offer witht the inclusion of Wells, but I think I would definately take the trade, just not for the reason that CUtler is not an elite player.....he is.

 

[TheWick]

Cutler IS an elite QB who had a below average year.

last 4 games would have played out to 40 TD's and 4000+ yards over 16 games. That's an elite pace. Since those were his last 4 games and not his 1st four games, I would say a top 5 year from Cutler next year is reasonable with the emmergence of Aromashadu and the potential to trade for/draft another WR as well.

One thing I am sure of is they will build the offense around Cutler's strengths. Usually teams do not build around player's with average talent.

Having said that, Ray Rice is a top 3 overall stud and landing someone of his worth at 23 years old does not happen often in FF.

It is an intriguing trade offer witht the inclusion of Wells, but I think I would definately take the trade, just not for the reason that CUtler is not an elite player.....he is.

Yeah that ELITE week 15 performance vs. the Ravens 10 for 27 for 94 yards really puts him in the upper echelon.I'm sorry but the bolded is just silly

He may in fact be elite...but the last 4 games shouldn't have convinced you of that.

 

[gheemony]

Cutler IS an elite QB who had a below average year.

last 4 games would have played out to 40 TD's and 4000+ yards over 16 games. That's an elite pace. Since those were his last 4 games and not his 1st four games, I would say a top 5 year from Cutler next year is reasonable with the emmergence of Aromashadu and the potential to trade for/draft another WR as well.

One thing I am sure of is they will build the offense around Cutler's strengths. Usually teams do not build around player's with average talent.

Having said that, Ray Rice is a top 3 overall stud and landing someone of his worth at 23 years old does not happen often in FF.

It is an intriguing trade offer witht the inclusion of Wells, but I think I would definately take the trade, just not for the reason that CUtler is not an elite player.....he is.

I aim to buy Cutler low this off-season, but I don't think a top 5 season is "reasonable". First, just look at it from the stand point of who he has to get ahead of: Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Schaub, Rivers, Roethliberger (7 already). Maybe Warner, McNabb, Favre, Ryan ... top 5 I think is a long-shot. Does he have the physical talent to do it? Yes. But the situation and his mental make up make it "unreasonable" to expect it. If you believe that he has a reasonable chance to be in the top 5, then you should be buying in every league. I don't think the price will match that upside unless it's a QB-heavy league.

 

[inzanitee]

Cutler IS an elite QB who had a below average year.

last 4 games would have played out to 40 TD's and 4000+ yards over 16 games. That's an elite pace. Since those were his last 4 games and not his 1st four games, I would say a top 5 year from Cutler next year is reasonable with the emmergence of Aromashadu and the potential to trade for/draft another WR as well.

One thing I am sure of is they will build the offense around Cutler's strengths. Usually teams do not build around player's with average talent.

Having said that, Ray Rice is a top 3 overall stud and landing someone of his worth at 23 years old does not happen often in FF.

It is an intriguing trade offer witht the inclusion of Wells, but I think I would definately take the trade, just not for the reason that CUtler is not an elite player.....he is.

Yeah that ELITE week 15 performance vs. the Ravens 10 for 27 for 94 yards really puts him in the upper echelon.

To be fair, 94 yds is like three playoff games worth for Joe Flacco.

 

[Sinrj]

EBF: Ricky W. struck a blow that Shonn G will likely will never answer -- a foerarm shiver in a meaningful ff ball week. If you started SG today, hope you're closer to the top TWO in next year's draft than top 4 (at which point you will simply draft THIS YEAR'S VERSION of Shonnnn Greeneeee).

Wonder what people think of a Ricky for Greene trade now.

ROTFLMAO

If they won their league, they feel good. If they are skilled drafters and can replace a player like Greene, they aren't worried. It's not like they traded Stewart or someone like that.

IF they won their league. How many actually did that? I think some guessed 33% or less. And some of that might have been in spite of Ricky (remember Lex?). More likely than not, the owner is cringing at that trade right now. Not all, but most. It's like poker. Sure some of the guys playing A-J won the hand, but doesn't mean it was the right play.

The poker analogy is terrible.

 

[FUBAR]

Cutler IS an elite QB who had a below average year.

last 4 games would have played out to 40 TD's and 4000+ yards over 16 games. That's an elite pace. Since those were his last 4 games and not his 1st four games, I would say a top 5 year from Cutler next year is reasonable with the emmergence of Aromashadu and the potential to trade for/draft another WR as well.

One thing I am sure of is they will build the offense around Cutler's strengths. Usually teams do not build around player's with average talent.

Having said that, Ray Rice is a top 3 overall stud and landing someone of his worth at 23 years old does not happen often in FF.

It is an intriguing trade offer witht the inclusion of Wells, but I think I would definately take the trade, just not for the reason that CUtler is not an elite player.....he is.

Sure, he's a lock to have eight 4 TD games

 

[SSOG]

Thoughts?

It's a no-brainer. Take Rice. Cutler has recently found himself in the unfamiliar position of being a replaceable dynasty asset at QB, and Wells flashed a little bit of talent, but ultimately just finished a mediocre rookie season that saw him fail to break 800 yards rushing or relegate Tim Hightower to the bench. Wells' upside is lower than Rice's current reality.

I respectfully disagree, one year ago you could have made the following declaration:Wells Rice flashed a little bit of talent, but ultimately just finished a mediocre rookie season that saw him fail to break 800 500 yards rushing or relegate Tim Hightower Willis McGahee to the bench.

It is rather shortsighted to say that because player A couldn't supplant player B then they must be inferior. Talented backs often bide their time behind the incumbent starter for any number of reasons, notable examples are D. Williams, Rice, and Mendenhall. Wells is a talented back in his own right, who was identified as an elite level of runner at both the high school and collegiate level.

I could fully see Wells matching Rice's current rushing numbers next season, in fact they have the same number of rushing TDs this year. Will he match Rice's reception totals? probably not, but his production in that area isnt enough to justify trading away Cutler. A QB coming of a 27 TD season with one of the worst offensive lines in the league, no semblance of a running game, and a converted return man & second year receiver with 0 career catches as his starting pass catchers.

You could also make this claim, too:Wells McFadden flashed a little bit of talent, but ultimately just finished a mediocre rookie season that saw him fail to break 800 500 yards rushing or relegate Tim Hightower Justin Fargas to the bench.

I never said that Wells would never be a stud, or that he was inferior to Hightower. I simply offered up Wells' mediocre season this year to demonstrate that Wells *MIGHT NEVER* be a stud. Yes, it's possible that Beanie Wells follows the Ray Rice career path. It's also possible that he follows the Darren McFadden career path, too. That was the whole point of that bit I posted about what happened to the 3rd and 4th tier RBs from the beginning to the end of the season- SOME of them became studs, but MOST of them fell off. Wells might be in the "some become studs" category next year, but he also might be in the "most fell off" category. If given the opportunity to spend an ordinary dynasty asset (Cutler) to go from a guy who might be the next Ray Rice to a guy who already is the next Ray Rice, then I will do that every day of the week.

Who are you going to replace him with?

Not that I'm overly concerned with your team but I would like to see how people dismissive of Cutler answer the (Wells + Cutler = Rice + X) equation.

Orton scored pretty comparably to Cutler this year, no? Guys like Campbell are always available on the cheap, and if you ever see a team that's out of contention, you can usually pry a McNabb, Favre, or Warner away for practically nothing. Vick's super cheap, Cassel's probably super cheap, Henne's still probably pretty cheap, lots of guys you can gamble on becoming a low-end QB1.This is sort of a golden age of dynasty QBs. You have a ton of guys who are both young enough and talented enough to roll out for the next several years. Brees, Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Romo are all clear, consensus, no-brainer better dynasty QBs than Cutler. I think Schaub is at this point, too. That makes Cutler QB9 at best, meaning he's a bad #1 dynasty QB. Throw in names like Ryan, Flacco, Palmer, Henne, and McNabb, and you could make a case that Cutler isn't even a dynasty QB1. Five years ago, a guy with Cutler's resume would probably be a top 5 dynasty QB just because of how thin the position was at the top... but recent years have seen a MASSIVE influx of wonderful dynasty QBs, which really dilutes the value of all of them. If your QB isn't one of those big 8 (Brees/Manning/Brady/Rodgers/Rivers/Roeth/Romo/Schaub), then he's an expendable asset.

 

[grtwhtsk]

Straight up, R. Rice for Peterson. Would you do it? I'm thinking about it (my getting Rice). We get 1 PPR, 1 pt every 10 yds rush/rec, 6 for TD. I am trying to see through my man crush for Peterson on this, and need some help here guys.

 

[Willie Mays Hayes]

Straight up, R. Rice for Peterson. Would you do it? I'm thinking about it (my getting Rice). We get 1 PPR, 1 pt every 10 yds rush/rec, 6 for TD. I am trying to see through my man crush for Peterson on this, and need some help here guys.

I would. IMO Rice has a chance to stay healthier in the long run than ADP. Plus, no one factors in the receiving game right now as well as Ray Rice. Peterson may have more TD's but I think Rice has a better all around game right now.

 

[todisco1]

Straight up, R. Rice for Peterson. Would you do it? I'm thinking about it (my getting Rice). We get 1 PPR, 1 pt every 10 yds rush/rec, 6 for TD. I am trying to see through my man crush for Peterson on this, and need some help here guys.

I would. IMO Rice has a chance to stay healthier in the long run than ADP. Plus, no one factors in the receiving game right now as well as Ray Rice. Peterson may have more TD's but I think Rice has a better all around game right now.

I would try and get a little something extra in the deal. A young WR with upside, a bump up in picks. Something.

 

[Tau837]

Last time I checked Cutler was a 26 yo QB with 3 top 12 finishes including a top 5 finish in 2008. He has never missed a game due to injury and averages 1.5 touchdowns per start. IMO Cutler is a stud who will still be a relevant in FF circles the next 8-10 years.Who are all these other quarterbacks that he can be easily replaced by?

You can cite statistics if you want, but I watched him play and he looked horrible. Horrible. You have to take those Denver stats with a grain of salt too because how much of that was his coach and WRs making him look good.

And how much of it was 616 passing attempts.

 

[SSOG]

Straight up, R. Rice for Peterson. Would you do it? I'm thinking about it (my getting Rice). We get 1 PPR, 1 pt every 10 yds rush/rec, 6 for TD. I am trying to see through my man crush for Peterson on this, and need some help here guys.

If I was getting Peterson, I would do it. If I was getting Rice, I wouldn't. At the end of the day, I just think Peterson is more talented.

 

[El Torero]

Seller's remorse settling in, had both Harvin and Rice, thought Rice's production was more tied to Favre and got a better offer for him so sent him elsewhere.I love Harvin, but I think I got rid of the wrong guy. Sidney is turning into an elite WR, quickly.

Me too.

 

[az_prof]

Straight up, R. Rice for Peterson. Would you do it? I'm thinking about it (my getting Rice). We get 1 PPR, 1 pt every 10 yds rush/rec, 6 for TD. I am trying to see through my man crush for Peterson on this, and need some help here guys.

I have Ray Rice and love him, but I would trade him in a heartbeat for ADP. I am pretty sure that the Vikings will address offensive line in the draft or FA and that ADP will be more consistent next year.

 

[Willie Mays Hayes]

Is Dwayne Bowe a special talent? I ask because I wonder if he's a buy low this offseason. I know he had a crappy season and problems with his coach and ranked at the top of the league again in drops. I'm not sure if his problems this year (and Jamaal Charles emergence) are providing a smokescreen for his upper echelon potential or if what we saw was a poor handscatcher that saw two good initial seasons because of a lack of alternatives in KC??? Here are some comparables that have me wondering:

Dwayne Bowe

6'2 221 lbs

Year 1: 70 995 5

Year 2: 86 1,022 7

Year 3: 47 589 4

YPC: 12.8

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 12.7 catches

Terrell Owens

6'3 224lbs

Year 1: 35 520 4

Year 2: 60 936 8

Year 3: 67 1,097 14

YPC: 15.8

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 6.2 catches

Andre Johnson

6'3 225lbs

Year 1: 66 976 4

Year 2: 79 1,142 6

Year 3: 63 688 2

YPC: 13.6

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 17.3 catches

 

[az_prof]

Is Dwayne Bowe a special talent? I ask because I wonder if he's a buy low this offseason. I know he had a crappy season and problems with his coach and ranked at the top of the league again in drops. I'm not sure if his problems this year (and Jamaal Charles emergence) are providing a smokescreen for his upper echelon potential or if what we saw was a poor handscatcher that saw two good initial seasons because of a lack of alternatives in KC??? Here are some comparables that have me wondering:

Dwayne Bowe

6'2 221 lbs

Year 1: 70 995 5

Year 2: 86 1,022 7

Year 3: 47 589 4

YPC: 12.8

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 12.7 catches

Terrell Owens

6'3 224lbs

Year 1: 35 520 4

Year 2: 60 936 8

Year 3: 67 1,097 14

YPC: 15.8

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 6.2 catches

Andre Johnson

6'3 225lbs

Year 1: 66 976 4

Year 2: 79 1,142 6

Year 3: 63 688 2

YPC: 13.6

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 17.3 catches

I've said it before and caught flak, but the fact is he was suspended for violating the leagues anti-steroids policy by using a drug that masks steroid use. I am confident he has used steroids to enhance his performance based on his physical appearance as well as the suspension. If that is true then his performance will decline once he stops doping. If you are buying you have to at least buy with eyes wide open that this is a possibility.

 

[_lurker_]

Is Dwayne Bowe a special talent? I ask because I wonder if he's a buy low this offseason. I know he had a crappy season and problems with his coach and ranked at the top of the league again in drops. I'm not sure if his problems this year (and Jamaal Charles emergence) are providing a smokescreen for his upper echelon potential or if what we saw was a poor handscatcher that saw two good initial seasons because of a lack of alternatives in KC??? Here are some comparables that have me wondering:

Dwayne Bowe

6'2 221 lbs

Year 1: 70 995 5

Year 2: 86 1,022 7

Year 3: 47 589 4

YPC: 12.8

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 12.7 catches

Terrell Owens

6'3 224lbs

Year 1: 35 520 4

Year 2: 60 936 8

Year 3: 67 1,097 14

YPC: 15.8

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 6.2 catches

Andre Johnson

6'3 225lbs

Year 1: 66 976 4

Year 2: 79 1,142 6

Year 3: 63 688 2

YPC: 13.6

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 17.3 catches

I've said it before and caught flak, but the fact is he was suspended for violating the leagues anti-steroids policy by using a drug that masks steroid use. I am confident he has used steroids to enhance his performance based on his physical appearance as well as the suspension. If that is true then his performance will decline once he stops doping. If you are buying you have to at least buy with eyes wide open that this is a possibility.

wasn't he taking a diuretic to make weight?

 

[corpcow]

How do you guys feel about Cassel and/or Garrard? I need a backup QB, but not sure if either will keep the job long term and their salaries aren't cheap. How much would you give up for a QB in this class in a 16 team, 6pt per pass TD league?

how do they compare to the incoming crop? (I have 1.04 and 1.13).

 

[thevidon]

Is Dwayne Bowe a special talent? I ask because I wonder if he's a buy low this offseason. I know he had a crappy season and problems with his coach and ranked at the top of the league again in drops. I'm not sure if his problems this year (and Jamaal Charles emergence) are providing a smokescreen for his upper echelon potential or if what we saw was a poor handscatcher that saw two good initial seasons because of a lack of alternatives in KC??? Here are some comparables that have me wondering:

Dwayne Bowe

6'2 221 lbs

Year 1: 70 995 5

Year 2: 86 1,022 7

Year 3: 47 589 4

YPC: 12.8

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 12.7 catches

Terrell Owens

6'3 224lbs

Year 1: 35 520 4

Year 2: 60 936 8

Year 3: 67 1,097 14

YPC: 15.8

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 6.2 catches

Andre Johnson

6'3 225lbs

Year 1: 66 976 4

Year 2: 79 1,142 6

Year 3: 63 688 2

YPC: 13.6

TD-to-recpt ratio: 1 TD every 17.3 catches

I've said it before and caught flak, but the fact is he was suspended for violating the leagues anti-steroids policy by using a drug that masks steroid use. I am confident he has used steroids to enhance his performance based on his physical appearance as well as the suspension. If that is true then his performance will decline once he stops doping. If you are buying you have to at least buy with eyes wide open that this is a possibility.

wasn't he taking a diuretic to make weight?

Yes. It was a diuretic NOT steroids. This is what a WR on roids looks like: http://www.badjocks.com/images/DavidBoston.jpg

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Sidney Rice >>>>>> Miles Austin.Austin was 4 for 34 today. If we extrapolate for a whole season we can predict with accuracy that next year he will produce:64 receptions; 544 yards 0 TDs. Mwwaaaahhhhhhhh. Maybe not. But the Vikings DBs are not exactly Revis and they shut him down stone cold. Sidney Rice is looking like a true elite talent. Wish I had pulled the trigger and traded for Rice earlier this year.

WTF? Reggie Bush >>>>>>>> Adrian Peterson?Matt Leinart >>>>>>>> Tony Romo?Devery Henderson >>>>>> Robert Meachem?

 

[thevidon]

Sidney Rice >>>>>> Miles Austin.Austin was 4 for 34 today. If we extrapolate for a whole season we can predict with accuracy that next year he will produce:64 receptions; 544 yards 0 TDs. Mwwaaaahhhhhhhh. Maybe not. But the Vikings DBs are not exactly Revis and they shut him down stone cold. Sidney Rice is looking like a true elite talent. Wish I had pulled the trigger and traded for Rice earlier this year.

WTF? Reggie Bush >>>>>>>> Adrian Peterson?Matt Leinart >>>>>>>> Tony Romo?Devery Henderson >>>>>> Robert Meachem?

Yeah, I can't wait for the deluge of Reggie Bush offers I'm about to receive in my various leagues. I'm sure all his owners will be using his playoff success in an attempt to dump him before he gets shipped off somewhere and disappears forever.