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Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)

That's a great point. You have to really have confidence in yourself when you make a move like this.In a PPR league, RB is a position I don't value at all. I mean, I know it's important...but I know that finding a solid RB is very easy. Finding a stud WR is not. In this particular league, I actually then traded back up into round 2, and grabbed Wayne. Then I used Wayne and traded down and picked up Maclin. My next pick was Ocho Cinco. Since I had nabbed Dez Bryant in the rookie draft, that gave me 5 stud WR's. Now I'm REALLY behind in RB, but no one can even come close at WR. And I was able to get Big Ben and Favre later in the draft, assuring me a top ten QB for the season, assuming Favre comes back. One thing I learned from a league I joined last year with a number of guys in this thread...is that in many leagues, you can't "outdraft" the other owners straight up. You have to create your own advantages.
The nice thing about those particular moves is that you don't really have to worry about who your RB1 is. With that team, it's probably Mark Ingram.I wouldn't have drafted Favre, though. I would have committed more fully to the "Year N+1" strategy and used the roster spot on a flier with upside. I doubt you're winning anything this year without any RBs, so all Favre is doing is making your rookie pick next year worse (and lessening your chances of getting Ingram).
No chance I'll be anywhere close to the bottom, imo. In this league, you can start 5 WR's (if you start 2 RB's) and the max number of RB's you can start is 3. WR's are much more valuable.Putting Reggie Bush up against Adrian Peterson will be really tough. But putting Dez Bryant or Ocho Cinco up against most team's number 1 WR in a PPR league will be really tough for them as well.That being said, after about 4 weeks I'll make the decision whether to go for the championship or go for a high draft pick, and Favre will be instrumental in either decision I make.
 
Unless of course he uses Favre as trade bait to get a decent pick back from a contender, and then he still has his own pick.
By that point, the damage will have already been done. Favre will have already gotten you a couple of wins (taking you further from the #1 overall rookie pick), Roethlisberger will be back, and you will have missed the chance to roster a Matt Moore type with the pick you used on Favre in the first place.
Did I not mention I have Matt Moore too? :confused:The only limitation my roster has (these are absolutely huge rosters btw) is the lack of RB's. Rosters are so big that I don't see that as a major problem. I have Reggie Bush and a host of guys who can get me decent points.Good rb's come out of nowhere. I've rarely ever had a problem acquiring good RB's during the season. Be it waivers or trades, they seem easy to get, and I certainly have the opportunity to go get them.
 
Just to put a little bit more life into the Jamaal Charles Bandwagon for this year...

I was playin basketball tonight at the local gym when this huge guy walks in with 4 kids about 15/16 years old. They play us the next game (we win) and then we're all sittin on the bench afterwards, and somebody asks him how big he is. He replies "325" and the guy is amazed, because he was movin up and down the court as fast as the rest of us, and he had amazing footwork. The next logical question is, "Do you play football?"

He says, "Yeah, I've played for a long time, this'll be my 7th year I think...I was with Cincy for a while, but now I'm with Kansas City. I got hurt last year, which [sucked]." So we keep talking, and get into a chat about football. He starts talking about RBs. He says the following:

1. He gets to play against all the RBs, and he said he was amazed how bad Cedric Benson was in Chicago and how hated he was, because he was great when they wer eon Cincy together. He says that Benson is Rudi Johnson with more power. And then he made a joke: "I'm the big tackle, Rudi never got through me in practice. Ced did more than once."

2. He didn't understand why Jerome Harrison didn't get more carries either. He said the guy is BUILT and always did extremely well in practice. Then he made another joke: "Of course, our defense there wasn't too great against other teams, so maybe that was it."

3. "Jamaal Charles is easily the best runner I've ever gotten to play with. And I spent a lot of time against Jamal Lewis, Rudi, Ced, Willie Parker, and McGahee over in Baltimore for a few years. None of them come close to this guy."

4. He said that Jamaal looks great, when I asked about the shoulder thing. He said that he (Charles) is intense, but he's funny in the lockerroom and said he'll be there for training camp. Apparently he's a great guy.

Overall, I was surprised at hwo well he handled all the stuff I asked. We talked for a long time between games, and he did not get tired. I was amazed, he wasn't even breathing any harder than me after a few games, and I'm pretty damn fit. I guess a lot of people don't ask as many questions as I do, because he was really enthused about talking football. He's excited about being with KC, thinks they'll be really good.
:mellow: Sounds like Shaun Smith. Thanks for posting, Instinctive.

Re: the Jamaal Charles bandwagon. I'm not sure there is one. We at Rotoworld are probably higher on him than any other sites are (Gregg Rosenthal surprisingly has him rated even higher than I do in redraft), but he's not going very high any of the "expert" mocks I've done. Even with the uncertainty beyond RB7 or 8 this year, Charles is being ranked in the mid-teens by the "experts."

According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, he's not going until early 3rd this year.
Charles is a real head-scratcher to me. His end of the year run was so dominant, that I think everyone thought he would be highly over-valued coming into 2010. So many people thought that, that now he's swung (in one offseason!) to under-valued.I know Thomas Jones and McCluster have been a big part of that dampened enthusiasm, but Jones is getting really old (I know we say that every year, but his dropoff is coming), and McCluster is playing WR.

I think Charles and Deangelo are the two under-rated RB's right now that I'd look to acquire. They are both guys that have proven periods of unbelievable production.

Deangelo had the number 1 ranking over the course of the 2008 season, and Charles had 968 yards rushing in the final 8 games of the year in 2009!

Both are capable of insane production, and I think both will produce bigtime in 2010.

 
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I'm having a bit of trouble ranking the 2nd/3rd tier PPR RBs this year, primarily the young group who are either new to the league or the players who have flashed some talent but haven't brought it all together yet in their limited time in the league. The players of most interest being...

Wells

Felix

Mathews

Best

Moreno

Pierre

Spiller

McCoy

Each has obviously shown a positive, but I'm finding it difficult to differentiate their dynasty rankings looking forward, especially when some of them have muddy situations. How much will an average passing game effect Wells? Scanning through early 09, F&L 'liked' Wells but never loved him. How much has that changed, if at all? Is Felix good enough and can he stay healthy enough to force Barber/Choice out of the picture AS WELL as getting himself some of the passing attempts. Can Pierre take the next step in a strong offense, but with a team that still wishes to invest heavily in their overall number 2 pick in Bush? Is McCoy's situation great enough to override his lower talent (IMO) over the other guys in the group? Is Spiller going to be able to take the step that other small and fast RBs have taken to be a legit RB1 in the future? Which RB will most likely finish ala Rice last year?

Personally, I have Wells on top of the group. As mentioned though, in the short term his situation scares me a bit, but his talent based on his runs last year was clear to see. Will that ever convert to a full workload though? Felix is the biggest ??? of the lot for me, because I could imagine him being a top 7-8 RB in the league, but his body and his team needs to give him the chance first. His team is willing to I think, but can HE drag it all together? The new draftees are all over the place for me. At the start of the FF season I loved Best and would take him comfortably over Mathews, but now despite what I see as greater talent I would take Mathews 1st overall. Pierre could also be good if given the chance, but I don't think he is quite as talented (Not that that is the be all and end all for running backs in FF), and McCoy is in the same boat, but he could become vastly more effective if he stopped dancing around like Bush used to, trying to hit the home run and simply going up the middle and through tackles more effectively.

Wells and Felix are my favourites, but not necessarily the order I would take them in over the above list.

Anyone else have any strong opinions on the lot? Upside, and most likely to reach that upside, whether due to situation or talent/injury? Who would you be most comfortable with as your RB1 or your RB2 this year?

My first auction in 3 weeks, and I can't wait :thumbup:

EDIT - And on the above post, does anyone think Charles belongs in this group nowadays? Or is he entrenched in the above group, along with the Mendenhall's, Grants, Turners, Stewarts where you are fairly comfortable that you know what they will poduce?

 
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Quick question...

In one of my dynasty leagues (non PPR) there are some decent vet WR options available. 10 team sort of small rosters (22 vs. 30 or so in the leagues I just drafted) For some reason the guy who drafted DHB (1.10 2009) dropped him. Also available are schilens, doucet, edelman, Devin Thomas, & Malcolm Kelly

Where do you guys see these vet wide receivers ranking in comparison to the WR's in the rookie class?

In the two dynasty drafts (one PPR, one non) I did the rooks went:

[*]Bryant (1 or 2 overall)

[*]D Thomas (5 and 7 overall)

[*]G Tate (10 overall in both)

[*]Benn (11 & 8 overall)

[*]Mike Williams (12 overall in both)

[*]Damian Williams (14 & 15)

[*]Gilyard (21 & 23)

[*]Eric Decker (17 &36)

[*]Lafell (19& 37)

[*]Taylor Price (23&41)

M Kelly was unowned in one of those leagues and went 20th, Edleman 33rd, Doucet 36/25.

This is what F&L had for tiers on the rookie WR's:

Wide Receivers

1. Dez Bryant, Cowboys

Tier Two

2. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos

3. Golden Tate, Seahawks

4. Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers

Tier Three

5. Damian Williams, Titans

6. Mike Williams, Buccaneers

7. Mardy Gilyard, Rams

8. Brandon LaFell, Panthers

Tier Four

9. Taylor Price, Patriots

10. Eric Decker, Broncos

11. Carlton Mitchell, Browns

12. Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers

13. Andre Roberts, Cardinals

14. Marcus Easley, Bills

15. Jacoby Ford, Raiders

16. Joe Webb, Vikings

17. Jordan Shipley, Bengals

18. Antonio Brown, Steelers

19. Armanti Edwards, Panthers

It seems like after Williams (Mike and Damian) and Gilyard people are all over the place. I guess F&L is saying Lafell is in that Williams/gilyard tier. Is that the time to start looking at these vets? Where do you guys see these kind of guys in comparison to the rookies? What tiers would you fit the above guys (DHb, schilens, doucet, edelman, Devin Thomas, & Malcolm Kelly) in?

 
Rookie WRs: Even tier 3 is all over the place in terms of order of preference. After the first 4 WRs, it is pretty much a crap shoot. Lots of good potential but difficult to know which one or two of the remaining guys will be fantasy relevant.

 
I would rather have Devin Thomas than everybody drafted this year but Dez Bryant.

I'd probably put Shilens and DHB after that 3rd tier, but I would have Armanti Edwards up there with them.

 
This is what F&L had for tiers on the rookie WR's:Wide Receivers1. Dez Bryant, CowboysTier Two2. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos3. Golden Tate, Seahawks4. Arrelious Benn, BuccaneersTier Three5. Damian Williams, Titans6. Mike Williams, Buccaneers7. Mardy Gilyard, Rams8. Brandon LaFell, Panthers
It's time to move Mike Williams up to Tier 2. I'd also put McCluster in Tier 2. F&L said McCluster is in Tier 3 once he gets WR eligibility (which he already does in most hosting sites). The 3 drafts I'm doing both guys have gone in the 1st round (McCluster 5th, 9th, and 12th and Mike Williams 12th, 12th, 9th).In a shallow league, Devin Thomas and the Oakland guys belong in Tier 2 also. They are poised to help now. DHB was dropped because it's easy to cycle WR prospects in a league with only 220 players owned. There are a couple guys I don't like in Tier 2 personally who I'd take Devin Thomas over.
 
Devin Thomas's performance in OTA's was described as "inconsistent" as I remember. I have him in a dynasty league and thought this year would be the perfect storm for him to put it together with Mcnabb and Shanahan arriving. Decent upside if things fall his way.

 
Quick question...In one of my dynasty leagues (non PPR) there are some decent vet WR options available. 10 team sort of small rosters (22 vs. 30 or so in the leagues I just drafted) For some reason the guy who drafted DHB (1.10 2009) dropped him. Also available are schilens, doucet, edelman, Devin Thomas, & Malcolm KellyWhere do you guys see these vet wide receivers ranking in comparison to the WR's in the rookie class?
SamNhenry, how many WR's can you start in your league vs RB's.I myself play in a 10 team, non PPR league. In my league, RB's rule the roost. Most of the WR's you listed are almost irrelevent. It all depends on your starting lineups, though.
 
I would rather have Devin Thomas than everybody drafted this year but Dez Bryant.

I'd probably put Shilens and DHB after that 3rd tier, but I would have Armanti Edwards up there with them.
Agreed. I expect a pretty big year from Devin this year.
Didn't he have some poor OTA's???
He had a hamstring injury early in OTAs, and he reportedly did not get off to a good start with the new coaching staff.
 
This is what F&L had for tiers on the rookie WR's:Wide Receivers1. Dez Bryant, CowboysTier Two2. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos3. Golden Tate, Seahawks4. Arrelious Benn, BuccaneersTier Three5. Damian Williams, Titans6. Mike Williams, Buccaneers7. Mardy Gilyard, Rams8. Brandon LaFell, Panthers
It's time to move Mike Williams up to Tier 2.
Definitely. These rookies lists can get dated awfully quickly.
 
Quick question...In one of my dynasty leagues (non PPR) there are some decent vet WR options available. 10 team sort of small rosters (22 vs. 30 or so in the leagues I just drafted) For some reason the guy who drafted DHB (1.10 2009) dropped him. Also available are schilens, doucet, edelman, Devin Thomas, & Malcolm KellyWhere do you guys see these vet wide receivers ranking in comparison to the WR's in the rookie class?
SamNhenry, how many WR's can you start in your league vs RB's.I myself play in a 10 team, non PPR league. In my league, RB's rule the roost. Most of the WR's you listed are almost irrelevent. It all depends on your starting lineups, though.
2 RB's, 3 WR, and one OP spot (WR, RB, TE, QB). Smart teams start QB's in OP spot if they can, RB's second, WR's third. Couple of teams own most QB's though so that leaves everyone else scrambling to fill the spot with a RB or WR.
 
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This is what F&L had for tiers on the rookie WR's:

Wide Receivers

1. Dez Bryant, Cowboys

Tier Two

2. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos

3. Golden Tate, Seahawks

4. Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers

Tier Three

5. Damian Williams, Titans

6. Mike Williams, Buccaneers

7. Mardy Gilyard, Rams

8. Brandon LaFell, Panthers
It's time to move Mike Williams up to Tier 2. I'd also put McCluster in Tier 2. F&L said McCluster is in Tier 3 once he gets WR eligibility (which he already does in most hosting sites). The 3 drafts I'm doing both guys have gone in the 1st round (McCluster 5th, 9th, and 12th and Mike Williams 12th, 12th, 9th).In a shallow league, Devin Thomas and the Oakland guys belong in Tier 2 also. They are poised to help now. DHB was dropped because it's easy to cycle WR prospects in a league with only 220 players owned. There are a couple guys I don't like in Tier 2 personally who I'd take Devin Thomas over.
So I'm going to guess you see teir 2 (with Mike Williams & McCluster, i guess your saying, added) like this:
[*]Demaryius Thomas

[*]McCluster

[*]M Williams

[*]Devin Thomas

[*]Golden Tate

[*]Benn

Close? Maybe off on Denver's Thomas?

 
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We agree on that part then SSOG (holdout doesn't = knucklehead). Also, I NEVER got into the Marshall "knucklehead" debate, nor defended him. I also wasn't comparing Marshall to VJAX in that regard either (although the DUI's/suspension looming is "troubling" when compared to others ranked around him with no such issues). I simply felt (& still do feel) when I wrote that, if it was Marshall threatening a hold out - We would have had another "Here goes another day in the life of Brandon owners" thread started and instead we have had a lot of - "It's June fellas" or "This happens all the time, etc." I think this is simply because two of the main contributors here (F & L and yourself - and I stated that both of your contributions have added a TON to this entire thread and to the board as a whole, along with many others who post in here and that I value when reading) happen to like VJAX a LOT. You both have him as either WR4 or 5 in Dynasty.First off, the situation with the CBA & RFA's status is VERY DIFFERENT this year from previous ones and it lends itself to players in VJAXs' case (who we both agree, as he surely does, should be better compensated) POSSIBLY being willing to sit out rather than play for an inferior salary and risk injury. IF AJ does not "reup" the lowered tender, I simply don't see VJAX playing for $600K this year. Throw in the suspension (lost salary $'s) and the fact that the CBA is in "limbo" right now and quite frankly, ownership holds most of the cards in his case IMO. I know many here will say that SD can't win without him or that they would be seriously hurting their chances, but when you look at that division I'm not sure AJ/Mgmnt. agree with that. I think they would be "ok" with him missing 10 games & playing in the postseason and I think VJAX might feel "well we'll see how you do in the postseason without me". This is why I thought it needed to be considered in a player ranked so highly. I also feel playing with Rivers (a top 5 QB), helps VJAX, and if he somehow leaves SD over this, that could also impact his ranking.I have also read from others who like him that high - "Well what is the BIG difference between WR4 or 10 anyway", F&L has them all in the same tier and we are just arguing around the "edges" or over slight disagreements, etc.I couldn't DISAGREE more with that line of thinking. In DYNASTY, it is those types of decisions in start-ups and trades that can make or break you for YEARS. A SECOND RD START-UP pick is VERY important NOT to miss on. I want at least 3-4 CORE players on my team and "missing" (what I mean by that, is taking a player who either underperforms the spot or is impacted in trade value negatively when compared to those drafted around him) on one is a BIG deal IMO. That's the whole difference between Dynasty and REDRAFT - You have these players for a long time. Where I think Chris' gets "ticked" sometimes, is with those who don't feel VJAX is talented - I never said that. I simply am not sure he is AS talented or more importantly, will be given the full opportunity to showcase those talents (I do feel Gianmarcos' target argument has a lot of validity on players ranked THIS HIGH) as others in the same tier. I think these ARE the things that should be discussed in this thread, along with whether Rice/Harvin warrant their rankings once Favre leaves, Waynes' age & Garcon/Collie stepping up last year, Marshalls' "knuckleheadness", Gore & SJAXs' "tipping points" etc... BECAUSE those are the types of questions that mine & many other leagues deal with every day when a trade is offered or a draft starts. These are all top tier players and choosing the right one is very important IMO & quite frankly why I like this thread so much. I know everyone LOVES finding the next Austin, Rice(s) or other guy that seemingly comes out of nowhere (and this thread helps a lot in that regard too) but I'd much rather get my core group of players "right" (especially for those of us who play in LARGER leagues with less margin for error) and let my drafting hopefully take over once the top 60 or so are off the board. EVERYBODY basically knows the top 25-30 guys but they may have vastly different opinions on where those players rank. That's why I don't think it's "nitpicking" to discuss VJAX's contract situation or lack of targets here and why I said I RESPECTFULLY disagreed with Chris using the DVOA/DYOR #'s to support his case (since the rankings bump up most big target guys - like I said, Floyd was 7th in both, yet F & L has him ranked 73rd). I totally agree with you both saying "I see it with my eyes on the field" - But that is true with most top 10 - 15 guys at their position (esp. WR) and figuring out which ones will really STAY ranked that high based on those talents is the KEY & why I think some of us keep coming back here to discuss certain players....Thanks as always for the feedback & thinking it over for a couple of days (& for your "edit" above F & L).
VERY VERY :tfp:
 
I'm having a bit of trouble ranking the 2nd/3rd tier PPR RBs this year, primarily the young group who are either new to the league or the players who have flashed some talent but haven't brought it all together yet in their limited time in the league. The players of most interest being...WellsFelixMathewsBestMorenoPierre SpillerMcCoy
This is basically tier 3 of F&L's rankings plus McCoy. I like Wells and Mathews best. I think Wells is the best talent of that list. I think Mathews is a very good talent and will get lots of TDs and plenty of receptions. In PPR I would avoid Felix (or I'd have him ranked low enough that I'd always miss out on him). He'll always be paired with another back who is a better pass catcher and red zone threat than him. He's a sexy player, but it's easier to win with a guy like Moreno that will bring his lunch pail, get all the teams rushing TDs, and be an increased focus in the pass game. If you want sexy, Best is just as sexy and safer.
 
Devin Thomas's performance in OTA's was described as "inconsistent" as I remember. I have him in a dynasty league and thought this year would be the perfect storm for him to put it together with Mcnabb and Shanahan arriving. Decent upside if things fall his way.
I've been looking to move him while he still has "some" value. It's very rare that you hear anything negative this time of year, and the fact that he's being labeled as "inconsistent" tells me enough. I'm tired of rostering a guy who just doesn't seem to "get it."
 
Simple question... who's more talented, AP or Jonathan Stewart?
Peterson, although he looked a little bit "off" last year.
:confused: I think AP had back issues last year. It didn't help that he had two guards playing injured and a center who couldn't run block.Top 5 in talent, I think, is AP, CJ2K, S-Jax, Stewart, MJD
I have a chance to land Stewart in my dynasty league and it be nice to get a young future stud because I am sitting on S-Jackson, P-Thomas, Slaton, Foster, Bradshaw as my only RB's right now for the future and S-Jax is getting pretty close to that magical age of 30.So he has 3 offers out there to me right now I can click accept right now if I want him. The cost is for draft picks only.Should I deal my future picks to land Stewart ?The 3 offers are as follows for StewartA) My 1.02 and Montana's 1st round pick in 2011 (his team is pertty weak and projects to 1-4 pick next year)B) Montana's 1st round 2011, My 1st round 2011, My 1st round 2012C) My 1st round in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014I hate to give away all those picks. I love the 1.02 this year and don't want to give it up but he also is giving me the value on it of basically 2 1st round picks thus offer B replaces the 1.02 with my 2 1st round picks in 2011 and 2012.I could just deal away 4 1st rounders of mine and hope I am very good the next 4 years keeping that pick in the rage of 7-10. From 2003-2010 my own personally picks have not been in the top 6.Deal B seems like the best to me if you guys think Stewart is worth 2 projected late 1st rounders and 1 projected early 1st rounder.I want Stewart pretty bad but not sure about dealing the future away I have already dealt my future picks away twice this decade.once I gave up 3 1st rounders (2005-2007) for Priest Holmes and that was a huge mistake he was older and gave me a total of like 12 games played over 2 years and that was all.and then I gave up 3 more 1st rounders (2007-2009) for LT. I also gave up D-Williams and F-Gore in that deal.So as you can see trading away my future has killed me. The big difference here is Stewart is only 23 the other deals I got those players at their peek.If I knew Montana would make the playoffs I would be more included to make the deal.I am under the impression the 2011 draft is really deep with talent and if that pick is #1 that would be huge.Thoughts ?
 
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The 3 offers are as follows for StewartA) My 1.02 and Montana's 1st round pick in 2011 (his team is pertty weak and projects to 1-4 pick next year)B) Montana's 1st round 2011, My 1st round 2011, My 2nd round 2012C) My 1st round in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
The best deal of those by far is option B. It's basically the same as option A, except it replaces the 1.02 (a sure-fire top-tier pick) with your 2011 first (which has a much lower chance of being as valuable as this year's 1.02) and a 2nd rounder two years from now (low-value asset). A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, so option B is substantially better than option A.I like Stewart, but I'd never deal 4 years worth of 1sts for any player simply because of risk management. Either your team winds up being really good, in which case you probably didn't need Stewart in the first place... or your team winds up being really bad, in which case you sure could have used those four high draft picks. I don't like gambling away my only means of significantly improving my team on the hope that I won't at any point need to significantly improve my team. Plus, even if Stewart for four firsts wound up being a fair deal, the market price of four firsts should be able to net you much more than Jonathan Stewart over the long haul (i.e. you could package two of the firsts for something like a Steven Jackson today, and then 2 years from now try to package two more firsts for someone like an MJD after he hits 27, aka "the age of paranoia").I'd be tempted by option B, depending on the rest of my team, but I would reject option A and option C out of hand.
 
The 3 offers are as follows for StewartA) My 1.02 and Montana's 1st round pick in 2011 (his team is pertty weak and projects to 1-4 pick next year)B) Montana's 1st round 2011, My 1st round 2011, My 2nd round 2012C) My 1st round in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
The best deal of those by far is option B. It's basically the same as option A, except it replaces the 1.02 (a sure-fire top-tier pick) with your 2011 first (which has a much lower chance of being as valuable as this year's 1.02) and a 2nd rounder two years from now (low-value asset). A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, so option B is substantially better than option A.I like Stewart, but I'd never deal 4 years worth of 1sts for any player simply because of risk management. Either your team winds up being really good, in which case you probably didn't need Stewart in the first place... or your team winds up being really bad, in which case you sure could have used those four high draft picks. I don't like gambling away my only means of significantly improving my team on the hope that I won't at any point need to significantly improve my team. Plus, even if Stewart for four firsts wound up being a fair deal, the market price of four firsts should be able to net you much more than Jonathan Stewart over the long haul (i.e. you could package two of the firsts for something like a Steven Jackson today, and then 2 years from now try to package two more firsts for someone like an MJD after he hits 27, aka "the age of paranoia").I'd be tempted by option B, depending on the rest of my team, but I would reject option A and option C out of hand.
I made a typo. It is my 1st in 2012...so the 1.02 = my 1st in 2011 and 1st in 2012.how does this affect your thoughts now on it ?
 
The 3 offers are as follows for StewartA) My 1.02 and Montana's 1st round pick in 2011 (his team is pertty weak and projects to 1-4 pick next year)B) Montana's 1st round 2011, My 1st round 2011, My 2nd round 2012C) My 1st round in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
The best deal of those by far is option B. It's basically the same as option A, except it replaces the 1.02 (a sure-fire top-tier pick) with your 2011 first (which has a much lower chance of being as valuable as this year's 1.02) and a 2nd rounder two years from now (low-value asset). A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, so option B is substantially better than option A.I like Stewart, but I'd never deal 4 years worth of 1sts for any player simply because of risk management. Either your team winds up being really good, in which case you probably didn't need Stewart in the first place... or your team winds up being really bad, in which case you sure could have used those four high draft picks. I don't like gambling away my only means of significantly improving my team on the hope that I won't at any point need to significantly improve my team. Plus, even if Stewart for four firsts wound up being a fair deal, the market price of four firsts should be able to net you much more than Jonathan Stewart over the long haul (i.e. you could package two of the firsts for something like a Steven Jackson today, and then 2 years from now try to package two more firsts for someone like an MJD after he hits 27, aka "the age of paranoia").I'd be tempted by option B, depending on the rest of my team, but I would reject option A and option C out of hand.
I made a typo. It is my 1st in 2012...so the 1.02 = my 1st in 2011 and 1st in 2012.how does this affect your thoughts now on it ?
Three firsts, one of them a guaranteed "premium first", is too much to pay for a single player. Like I said, you have to look at it from a risk management standpoint. If your team tanks, you NEED those firsts to turn things around and get yourself back into contention. If you trade 3 or 4 years worth of 1st rounders and your team tanks, then you're just screwed. I like Stewart, but it looks to me like you've got a case of tunnel vision- like you've decided that Stewart might be a good value, so you've become so set on buying him that you're looking at him at prices that no longer represent good values. Before you do anything, take those packages elsewhere and see what else you might be able to get for a similar cost. I think the answers might surprise you. I'd bet even some Ray Rice or Maurice Jones-Drew owners might be willing to move if you offered them a crazy package like 4 years worth of 1st round draft picks. Or, as I said, you could probably get two studs.I dunno, I could possibly see the 1.02 + future high first for Stewart, but I still think you're just trying to buy high and you should look around the league to see what else you could get for the same price.
 
Can I get some of your thoughts on Roddy vs Reggie Wayne in a dynasty startup? 16 team PPR, and I'm likely staring at one of them at my 2nd round pick, pick 30 (got Ray Rice in the 1st). Roddy is younger and has produced 3 remarkably consistent years, but I feel his ceiling isn't top 3 or maybe not even top 5. Wayne produced better overall numbers last year and could definitely do better in 2010. However, I don't know if I view Gonzo/Collie/Garcon coming on/coming back as positives (single coverage) or negatives (less targets) for Wayne, and his dropoff in play from Week 11 onwards was concerning. He's also 32, so realistically has maybe 2 more elite years left for PPR purposes. Thoughts?

 
Can I get some of your thoughts on Roddy vs Reggie Wayne in a dynasty startup? 16 team PPR, and I'm likely staring at one of them at my 2nd round pick, pick 30 (got Ray Rice in the 1st). Roddy is younger and has produced 3 remarkably consistent years, but I feel his ceiling isn't top 3 or maybe not even top 5. Wayne produced better overall numbers last year and could definitely do better in 2010. However, I don't know if I view Gonzo/Collie/Garcon coming on/coming back as positives (single coverage) or negatives (less targets) for Wayne, and his dropoff in play from Week 11 onwards was concerning. He's also 32, so realistically has maybe 2 more elite years left for PPR purposes. Thoughts?
I like White better, especially in a startup. You question if his ceiling is top-5, yet he's already had a 6th and 7th place finish the past two years. Wayne's age is definitely a factor, as are the development of Garcon/Collie in addition to Clark/Gonzo.
 
Between Jared Cook and Jimmy Graham who do you guys think has more long-term value? I keep hearing Graham being called the next Gates...but I've also heard great things about Cook as well. Both seem to have top-5 potential, but who do you think is more likely to reach it?

 
Can I get some of your thoughts on Roddy vs Reggie Wayne in a dynasty startup? 16 team PPR, and I'm likely staring at one of them at my 2nd round pick, pick 30 (got Ray Rice in the 1st). Roddy is younger and has produced 3 remarkably consistent years, but I feel his ceiling isn't top 3 or maybe not even top 5. Wayne produced better overall numbers last year and could definitely do better in 2010. However, I don't know if I view Gonzo/Collie/Garcon coming on/coming back as positives (single coverage) or negatives (less targets) for Wayne, and his dropoff in play from Week 11 onwards was concerning. He's also 32, so realistically has maybe 2 more elite years left for PPR purposes. Thoughts?
I like White better, especially in a startup. You question if his ceiling is top-5, yet he's already had a 6th and 7th place finish the past two years. Wayne's age is definitely a factor, as are the development of Garcon/Collie in addition to Clark/Gonzo.
I would agree with this completely.
 
Between Jared Cook and Jimmy Graham who do you guys think has more long-term value? I keep hearing Graham being called the next Gates...but I've also heard great things about Cook as well. Both seem to have top-5 potential, but who do you think is more likely to reach it?
It's hard to answer that question, but the news on Jared Cook isn't all too favorable. He has tons of potential, but that doesn't put up stats. I'm in 'wait and see' mode w/ both of these players.
 
Can I get some of your thoughts on Roddy vs Reggie Wayne in a dynasty startup? 16 team PPR, and I'm likely staring at one of them at my 2nd round pick, pick 30 (got Ray Rice in the 1st). Roddy is younger and has produced 3 remarkably consistent years, but I feel his ceiling isn't top 3 or maybe not even top 5. Wayne produced better overall numbers last year and could definitely do better in 2010. However, I don't know if I view Gonzo/Collie/Garcon coming on/coming back as positives (single coverage) or negatives (less targets) for Wayne, and his dropoff in play from Week 11 onwards was concerning. He's also 32, so realistically has maybe 2 more elite years left for PPR purposes. Thoughts?
I like White better, especially in a startup. You question if his ceiling is top-5, yet he's already had a 6th and 7th place finish the past two years. Wayne's age is definitely a factor, as are the development of Garcon/Collie in addition to Clark/Gonzo.
:goodposting:Hard to believe this is even a question.
 
Can I get some of your thoughts on Roddy vs Reggie Wayne in a dynasty startup? 16 team PPR, and I'm likely staring at one of them at my 2nd round pick, pick 30 (got Ray Rice in the 1st). Roddy is younger and has produced 3 remarkably consistent years, but I feel his ceiling isn't top 3 or maybe not even top 5. Wayne produced better overall numbers last year and could definitely do better in 2010. However, I don't know if I view Gonzo/Collie/Garcon coming on/coming back as positives (single coverage) or negatives (less targets) for Wayne, and his dropoff in play from Week 11 onwards was concerning. He's also 32, so realistically has maybe 2 more elite years left for PPR purposes. Thoughts?
You question whether White's ceiling is top-5, why don't have you have the same questions about Wayne? They're essentially the same guy, from a statistical standpoint. For the last year or so I've referred to them both as 1200/10 guys. That's really what they are. They aren't going to get you 1500 yards, they aren't going to get you 13 TDs, they're just 180 point receivers, year in and year out. And before anyone points out that Wayne did put up 1500 yards in 2007... Indy's #2 WR that year was a rookie Anthony Gonzalez with 576 receiving yards. That year was an aberration because Peyton didn't have anyone else to go to. Absent an unusual situation like that, Reggie Wayne is "just" a 1200/10 guy- an 180 point guy. There's no real 200-point, difference-maker upside. That's fine, though, because he's so consistently great that it doesn't matter if he's never awesome. Same deal with Roddy White. What you get is a year-in, year-out quality fantasy WR1. He's not going to single-handedly win you any seasons, but he's going to be a large contributing part to a lot of winning seasons. I've got him #4 on my dynasty rankings. He's essentially just a younger Reggie Wayne, fantasy-wise.
:shrug:Hard to believe this is even a question.
Funny how things change. Halfway through the season I was getting burned in effigy for daring to mention that I'd moved VJax and White ahead of Wayne in my rankings. 8 NFL games later and people are in disbelief that anyone would even question whether Wayne could possibly be worth more than White. Things change fast.
 
:shrug:Hard to believe this is even a question.
Funny how things change. Halfway through the season I was getting burned in effigy for daring to mention that I'd moved VJax and White ahead of Wayne in my rankings. 8 NFL games later and people are in disbelief that anyone would even question whether Wayne could possibly be worth more than White. Things change fast.
1. I didn't question it, and I think those who did were off base.2. The specific question here is dynasty startup ranking, which would most accentuate the age difference. The midseason discussion may not have been specifically about startup rankings.3. Half a season actually might make a difference to some people, since the 8 games you are talking about were probably the most valuable 8 games Wayne would have in this comparison.4. Yes, things change fast.All that said, as of today, I don't think there should be any question about White being ahead of Wayne for dynasty startup drafts.
 
So things can change "fast" in FANTASY - which I wholeheartedly agree with, but not for Fitz or VJAX?
As long as the most talented WR in the league remains the most talented WR in the league and remains 6+ years away from decline, then no, things aren't going to change fast. Things are going to change very, very, very slowly. If they change at all.As for VJax... who says nothing's changed? Is there anyone in this thread that hasn't downgraded VJax this offseason?
 
I don't think F & L has downgraded VJAX (he had him #4 post draft) & I think you said you moved him from #4 to #6, a downgrade yes, but still pretty darn high in the entire scheme of things.

And again, "if they change at all" or very/very/very/very slowly (& that not really even being a possibility for you to consider IMO), is where we disagree on Fitz.

Again, I RESPECT your work on this board and in this thread a lot (& F&L's too - A LOT). I just think sometimes (& we are ALL guilty of it) we lock into certain players and nothing really will change our minds. I think it is good to see how unchallengeable someones opinion of a certain player is because that may help me (& the other members here) decide how we evaluate said player. FWIW, I think we disagree a lot more on VJAX's possible change in status than Fitzs' because I think Fitz is much more talented than VJAX. I agree, by the way, that Fitz is the most talented WR in the NFL but I am concerned with whether Leinart can throw for 3500 yards as you stated in the other Fitz thread & therefore my #'s would be down somewhat for all the rec. options in ARZ this year.

Either way, I appreciate the back & forth and hope you are not taking it at all personally, because I know it may seem as if I am purposefully picking on YOU. That is not the case AT ALL. It just so happens that 3 of the players (VJAX/Stewart/Fitz-somewhat, I own him on 3 teams by the way) I seem to be "struggling" with ranking this year for DYNASTY with PLAYERS around them (not whether or not they are talented) are three who YOU are the biggest supporters of.

 
Am I the only ONE that has PROBLEMS reading PEOPLE'S posts when they CAPITALIZE words for NO reason?
I dont know, but YOURE probably the only ONE who it bothers ENOUGH to point it out.
If someone were to come in here and type a post in all caps, ten people would respond with "Stop shouting!!!!!11". I feel the same way with this style of writing. We are all capable of reading people's posts without the need to highlight certain words for us.
 
Sorry guys - obviously capitalization of certain words in a post is what we need to be focusing on here and not the content. No more caps though if it distracts certain readers....

 
You can add me to the list of Jamaal Charles supporters going into this season. In my dynasty start-up draft that's happening in about 3 weeks I'm targeting him with my 2nd round pick (17th overall). Ideally I would like to wait until Round 3 but I'm not banking on him still being on the board that late for fear that there's another owner out there who shares the same feelings as I do on his potential in a dynasty.

Beanie is the other dynasty RB that I am desperate to get my hands on. Do you guys think he has a chance to fall into the 3rd round?

Also, what are people expecting out of Michael Crabtree and where would you rank him/draft him in a start up? I've got him very high on my board even though he may disappoint in 2010 in relation to where I'd be willing to take him.

 
I don't think F & L has downgraded VJAX (he had him #4 post draft) & I think you said you moved him from #4 to #6, a downgrade yes, but still pretty darn high in the entire scheme of things.

And again, "if they change at all" or very/very/very/very slowly (& that not really even being a possibility for you to consider IMO), is where we disagree on Fitz.

Again, I RESPECT your work on this board and in this thread a lot (& F&L's too - A LOT). I just think sometimes (& we are ALL guilty of it) we lock into certain players and nothing really will change our minds. I think it is good to see how unchallengeable someones opinion of a certain player is because that may help me (& the other members here) decide how we evaluate said player. FWIW, I think we disagree a lot more on VJAX's possible change in status than Fitzs' because I think Fitz is much more talented than VJAX. I agree, by the way, that Fitz is the most talented WR in the NFL but I am concerned with whether Leinart can throw for 3500 yards as you stated in the other Fitz thread & therefore my #'s would be down somewhat for all the rec. options in ARZ this year.

Either way, I appreciate the back & forth and hope you are not taking it at all personally, because I know it may seem as if I am purposefully picking on YOU. That is not the case AT ALL. It just so happens that 3 of the players (VJAX/Stewart/Fitz-somewhat, I own him on 3 teams by the way) I seem to be "struggling" with ranking this year for DYNASTY with PLAYERS around them (not whether or not they are talented) are three who YOU are the biggest supporters of.
Pretty sure F&L has said that he's downgraded VJax in the month and a half since the WR rankings were posted. The difference between me/F&L and most other people, though, is we're downgrading him because of the holdout and not because of "knucklehead factor". I've posted at least a half dozen times why I don't consider VJax a knucklehead. F&L has, as well. The "knucklehead" stuff, therefore, didn't warrant much of a change in my rankings. Now that he's talking about missing serious time to holdout? Yeah, he's moving down my rankings. He's #6 right now. As the season approaches, if the holdout talk is still holding strong, he'll fall further (right now, as F&L is fond of saying... "it's June"). Not too terrible far, though. I mean, Brandon Marshall has every red flag imaginable, but he's still sitting right on the cusp of my top 10. That sort of puts a limit on how far VJax can slide, since he has, in my opinion, less risk and more talent.I can get why someone might be scared on Fitz, but you agree that he's the most talented receiver in the league. If I'm placing bets, I'm betting on talent. Imagine how bad the guy who sold low on Randy Moss felt. Imagine how bad the guy who sold low on Marvin Harrison when he turned 30 felt. Imagine how bad the guy who sold low on Terrell Owens when he was forcing trades felt. Or the guy who sold low on Ray Rice because McGahee was hogging reps. Or the guy who sold low on Sidney Rice because he grew impatient. Or the guy who sold low on Rashard Mendenhall after 20 career carries. In my opinion, that's how the guys who sell low on Larry Fitzgerald or Jonathan Stewart or Vincent Jackson are going to feel in a couple of years.

I've said in the past that there are two fundamental ways to run a dynasty squad. The first is to run it like a stock market, always trying to buy low and sell high, trying to anticipate shifts in the market and act preemptively to make a profit. There's nothing wrong with that method. Lots of people have a lot of success with that method. That's not how I run my team, though. "Stock Market" owners will have rankings that fluctuate wildly from week to week, creating dramatic shifts in response to the smallest of news blips. Personally, I try to run my team the second way- acquire talent, hold talent, accumulate talent. My rankings tend to be much, much more resistant to change. They tend to be much more inert. 90% of the disagreements I get into in this thread wind up being a result of how inert my rankings are. Which I get and respect- lots of people have had success with very flexible rankings and so they see inert rankings and think they're "wrong". They aren't necessarily wrong, though- it's just a different way of doing things.

For a post I made on "rankings inertia", click here. It should do a lot to sum up the subject.

 
I don't think F & L has downgraded VJAX (he had him #4 post draft) & I think you said you moved him from #4 to #6, a downgrade yes, but still pretty darn high in the entire scheme of things.
I've downgraded V-Jax in my mind, but I haven't downgraded him on the blog. Again, this is a "blogger" issue and one of the reason I've thought about transferring the rankings to Rotoworld. I can't go into blogger and make a few changes without causing at least an hour or three's worth of work for myself.I'd put V-Jax probably in the 8-12 area right now.Fitz, on the other hand, I'd probably move back to No. 1 if I started fresh today. There's absolutely no reason to downgrade him.
 
I don't think F & L has downgraded VJAX (he had him #4 post draft) & I think you said you moved him from #4 to #6, a downgrade yes, but still pretty darn high in the entire scheme of things.

And again, "if they change at all" or very/very/very/very slowly (& that not really even being a possibility for you to consider IMO), is where we disagree on Fitz.

Again, I RESPECT your work on this board and in this thread a lot (& F&L's too - A LOT). I just think sometimes (& we are ALL guilty of it) we lock into certain players and nothing really will change our minds. I think it is good to see how unchallengeable someones opinion of a certain player is because that may help me (& the other members here) decide how we evaluate said player. FWIW, I think we disagree a lot more on VJAX's possible change in status than Fitzs' because I think Fitz is much more talented than VJAX. I agree, by the way, that Fitz is the most talented WR in the NFL but I am concerned with whether Leinart can throw for 3500 yards as you stated in the other Fitz thread & therefore my #'s would be down somewhat for all the rec. options in ARZ this year.

Either way, I appreciate the back & forth and hope you are not taking it at all personally, because I know it may seem as if I am purposefully picking on YOU. That is not the case AT ALL. It just so happens that 3 of the players (VJAX/Stewart/Fitz-somewhat, I own him on 3 teams by the way) I seem to be "struggling" with ranking this year for DYNASTY with PLAYERS around them (not whether or not they are talented) are three who YOU are the biggest supporters of.
Pretty sure F&L has said that he's downgraded VJax in the month and a half since the WR rankings were posted. The difference between me/F&L and most other people, though, is we're downgrading him because of the holdout and not because of "knucklehead factor". I've posted at least a half dozen times why I don't consider VJax a knucklehead. F&L has, as well. The "knucklehead" stuff, therefore, didn't warrant much of a change in my rankings. Now that he's talking about missing serious time to holdout? Yeah, he's moving down my rankings. He's #6 right now. As the season approaches, if the holdout talk is still holding strong, he'll fall further (right now, as F&L is fond of saying... "it's June"). Not too terrible far, though. I mean, Brandon Marshall has every red flag imaginable, but he's still sitting right on the cusp of my top 10. That sort of puts a limit on how far VJax can slide, since he has, in my opinion, less risk and more talent.I can get why someone might be scared on Fitz, but you agree that he's the most talented receiver in the league. If I'm placing bets, I'm betting on talent. Imagine how bad the guy who sold low on Randy Moss felt. Imagine how bad the guy who sold low on Marvin Harrison when he turned 30 felt. Imagine how bad the guy who sold low on Terrell Owens when he was forcing trades felt. Or the guy who sold low on Ray Rice because McGahee was hogging reps. Or the guy who sold low on Sidney Rice because he grew impatient. Or the guy who sold low on Rashard Mendenhall after 20 career carries. In my opinion, that's how the guys who sell low on Larry Fitzgerald or Jonathan Stewart or Vincent Jackson are going to feel in a couple of years.

I've said in the past that there are two fundamental ways to run a dynasty squad. The first is to run it like a stock market, always trying to buy low and sell high, trying to anticipate shifts in the market and act preemptively to make a profit. There's nothing wrong with that method. Lots of people have a lot of success with that method. That's not how I run my team, though. "Stock Market" owners will have rankings that fluctuate wildly from week to week, creating dramatic shifts in response to the smallest of news blips. Personally, I try to run my team the second way- acquire talent, hold talent, accumulate talent. My rankings tend to be much, much more resistant to change. They tend to be much more inert. 90% of the disagreements I get into in this thread wind up being a result of how inert my rankings are. Which I get and respect- lots of people have had success with very flexible rankings and so they see inert rankings and think they're "wrong". They aren't necessarily wrong, though- it's just a different way of doing things.

For a post I made on "rankings inertia", click here. It should do a lot to sum up the subject.
Your rankings inertia post was fascinating and something I had never heard of before. I would be curious to see some examples of your rankings now and in previous seasons. What criteria do you use for your rankings? ie - talent vs. situation, age, etc. For example, in a dynasty, where would you rank somebody like Randy Moss vs. DeSean Jackson? Where do rookies fall into your rankings? How often do you update?
 
For what it's worth, among the Rotoworld crowd, Gregg Rosenthal definitely has his finger on the contract stuff better than the rest of us, IMO. He's been doing this for a long time, and his take is that V-Jax may miss a game or two due to suspension, but the contract talk is just the usual June bluster.

I haven't been able to read this situation well at all. I started out by thinking the same way as Gregg, but I just don't know of late. We had to re-do our projections for the 2nd magazine, and V-Jax dropped more than any player. We had him around 8-10 in the first mag. Evan Silva dropped all the way to No. 31 for this one. I had him around No. 20, and Gregg kept him in the early teens.

This is one of the areas where I trust Gregg's judgment better than my own, FWIW. :confused:

 
Other interesting magazine talk: Johnny Knox was by far the biggest leap from 1st mag to 2nd. He was in the 50's at WR in the first mag. Evan and I both had him in the top-30 for the 2nd mag, and Gregg had him just outside the top-30.

Montario Hardesty has leapfrogged Ben Tate.

We like Miles Austin.

I have Jabar Gaffney at least 30(!) places higher than Evan or Gregg have him. I have McFadden almost 20 spots higher than Evan has him. I have Steve Smith South ten spots higher than Evan has him. We all like Zach Miller. We all like Jamaal Charles, but Gregg is loving him more and more.

We're all over the map on Greg Jennings: Evan (6), Wess (11), Gregg (17).

We all believe Percy Harvin is No. 21 at WR, Felix Jones is No. 20 at RB, Michael Crabtree is No. 14 at WR, LeSean McCoy is No. 23 at RB, and (oddly enough) Brandon LaFell is No. 77 at WR.

We can't agree on the order of the top-5 tight ends, but we do agree that they're incredibly close in value.

 
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