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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Matt Jones, Colts (2 Viewers)

The Redskins don’t expect fumbling to be an issue for Matt Jones.
"When he’s in traffic, he protects it pretty well, it’s when he gets outside he gets a little bit loose with it," HC Jay Gruden said. "So he’s just got to be more secure all the time, not just when he’s in traffic." Jones fumbled five times on 144 carries last year. Ball security played a role in his second-half decline, but the Redskins don’t consider it a major concern. With Alfred Morris gone, Jones has a chance to open 2016 as a three-down back.

 
 
Source: redskins.com 
Mar 19 - 6:05 PM
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Im a little surprised more people do not buy that Marshall will get a ton of carries and catches. Not the biggest fan of Jones as the bellcow.

 
WheelsUp said:
Im a little surprised more people do not buy that Marshall will get a ton of carries and catches. Not the biggest fan of Jones as the bellcow.
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The only thing that will keep Jones off the field is his fumbling, and possibly conditioning.  His pass catching is very good for a big back and Marshall is the new comer that has to learn a lot still.  I'm surprised people think Marshall will get a chunk of work at all.  That is unless Jones doesn't improve on his YPC (effectiveness), and his fumbling.  

 
With Jones as well as Ajayi, I can't recall the last time a pair of young RBs in line for an almost certain feature RB role to open the season were being drafted so late. 

I think as August approaches the hype will build we these guys as people begin to remember how much an opportunity matters like this in the current FF landscape. 

 
FreeBaGeL said:
With Jones as well as Ajayi, I can't recall the last time a pair of young RBs in line for an almost certain feature RB role to open the season were being drafted so late. 

I think as August approaches the hype will build we these guys as people begin to remember how much an opportunity matters like this in the current FF landscape. 
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Agreed. These guys are usually over drafted, not under drafted. 

 
I got peppered in the SSL draft for taking him in the mid 4th of a PPR 18 man league.

I dont get it either

 
I own him...he certainly has the right opportunity.  At times he look phenomenal last year and other times not so much.  I'm not sure what to think going into this year but in reality there aren't many other backs in as good of as situation

 
Everyone knows Ajayi and Jones are simply temporary patches. I would sell for whatever I could before Jones picks up right where he left off...disappointing. 

 
Anyone with intel on Jones's off-season?  It would be nice to hear about some hard work.  I'm not saying he is the next Le'veon Bell but Bell only averaged 3.5 as a rookie and came back trimmed down with an understanding of what it takes to succeed.  Jones was up and down as a rookie but it is hard to ignore the opportunity he has in Washington.

 
I play dynasty and if Jones starts for more than 1 more year, I would be completely shocked. 

I've already commented on 3.4 YPC for the year. However, he only had 3 games over 3.5 YPC(2 of which were the 1st two weeks)! Taking out his best week and he's averaging 2.9 YPC. You think an NFL will stick behind him while it's 3 yards and a cloud of dust because he's a 3rd round pick?

NFL teams want to win and Jones is JAG that is below replacement level IMO. Which is why I would buy Marshall.

 
DropKick said:
Anyone with intel on Jones's off-season?  It would be nice to hear about some hard work.  I'm not saying he is the next Le'veon Bell but Bell only averaged 3.5 as a rookie and came back trimmed down with an understanding of what it takes to succeed.  Jones was up and down as a rookie but it is hard to ignore the opportunity he has in Washington.
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Trent Richardson averaged 3.6 YPC his rookie year too. Bell is an outlier, not the standard.

 
petekrum said:
The fact they let Morris walk, brought in no free agent RB, and only used a 7th round pick on one tells you he is pretty safe.
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There is still what he actually did last year which is anything but safe. He looked meh at times, he had fumbling issues and missed time to injury. 

 
tdmills said:
Trent Richardson averaged 3.6 YPC his rookie year too. Bell is an outlier, not the standard.
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Forte averaged 3.5.

tdmills said:
Trent Richardson averaged 3.6 YPC his rookie year too. Bell is an outlier, not the standard.
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And Matt Forte put up 3.6 his sophomore season.  YPC can be and up and down thing.  The knock on Bell was that he was overweight.  It was something he addressed.

I can understand the question marks regarding Jones.  However, the Skins haven't done much to replace him.  If there were no warts, the price tag would be higher.   You never know when a young player will take a step forward.  Could be a nice value.

 
tdmills said:
Trent Richardson averaged 3.6 YPC his rookie year too. Bell is an outlier, not the standard.
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That's just simply not true. Neither is the standard. You can go look at several prominent RB's rookie seasons and cherry pick how you want. Trent Richardson is not the rule. If we followed your standard you'd end up selling backs like LT, Marshall Faulk and Emmitt Smith because their first season or two YPC's just don't cut it. I am NOT comparing Jones to them (in fact I'd be more inclined to make this argument for Jeremy Langford) but not everyone comes in the league and blows the doors off. Rookie YPC should largely be ignored because it is not a good indicator in one way or the other.

 
That WAS OL also gave up averages to Morris at 3.55 YPC

Not that Morris is fantastic but he did string a couple of 1,000 yard seasons together. 

Can WAS OL be better? Can Matt Jones be better? as a starter can he double the catches to the 45-50 ranger along with 220-240 carries? Those are realistic I think, and puts in him the RB1 category right ?

 
tdmills said:
Trent Richardson averaged 3.6 YPC his rookie year too. Bell is an outlier, not the standard.
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Freeman: 3.8 to 4.0          McFadden: 4.4 to 3.4         Lynch: 4.0 to 4.2 

AP: 5.6 to 4.8                    Hill: 5.1 to 3.6                      Foster: 4.8 to 5.0 

Doug Martin: 4.6 to 3.6     Stewart: 4.6 to 5.1              Hyde: 4.0 to 4.1

Deangelo: 4.1 to 5.0         McCoy: 4.1 to 5.2               Blount: 5.0 to 4.2

Miller: 4.0 to 4.9                Ingram: 3.9 to 3.9

Ivory: 5.2 to 4.7                 D. Murray: 5.5 to 4.1

L. Murray: 5.2 to 4.0         Lacy: 4.1 to 4.6

Gore: 4.8 to 5.4                G. Bernard: 4.1 to 4.0

Forte: 3.9 to 3.6               Crowell: 4.1 to 3.8

CJ2K: 4.9 to 5.6               Morris: 4.8 to 4.6

Matthews: 4.3 to 4.9       L. Bell 3.5 to 4.7

Above are 24 of the top RBs and their year 1 vs. year 2 average yards per carry. 

Of these  RBs, 11 improved, 12 declined and 1 stayed the same. It is a small sample size, but we see guys like Bell, McCoy and DeAngelo make big gains from year 1 to 2. We saw guys like Hill, Murray and Doug Martin become much less efficient in their second years. The average improvement was about 0.5 yards. The average decline was 0.6 yards. Based on this small work, I think it's pretty difficult to predict whether a RB becomes more or less efficient from Y1 to Y2.

Matt Jones averaged 3.4 which is outside of the above sample size. None of those backs had such low ypc for Y1 or Y2. Maybe that means we should consider Jones as not being deserving of consideration as a starting fantasy RB since he falls outside of the range. 3.4 and 3.5 really aren't that far apart, so we could also consider the idea that since Jones is at the absolute bottom, he is likely to improve. 

 
tdmills said:
I play dynasty and if Jones starts for more than 1 more year, I would be completely shocked. 

I've already commented on 3.4 YPC for the year. However, he only had 3 games over 3.5 YPC(2 of which were the 1st two weeks)! Taking out his best week and he's averaging 2.9 YPC. You think an NFL will stick behind him while it's 3 yards and a cloud of dust because he's a 3rd round pick?

NFL teams want to win and Jones is JAG that is below replacement level IMO. Which is why I would buy Marshall.
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Ya know, not every player comes into the league and dominates from the word go. A lot of these guys go through an adjustment period, much like Bell did with Steelers.

 
After watching Matt Jones, I would not be expecting much from him. The Skins punted at RB and this might have as much to do with a possible shift change in  their offensive plan. I honestly don't know what their pass to run ratio was last year but I expect it to go up (unless it was already insanely high). Doctson, Reed, Jackson and Garçon is a pretty nice stable of pass catchers. 

Jones, I think he is the exact definition of Just A Guy. Marshall was a back up but he also dealt with an injury and had/has a couple of high skilled guys in Gurley and Chubb to compete with. I can't give much of an opinion of Jones or Marshalls pass pro but if Marshall can get close to Jones in this area then I think he takes the job. I think Marshall has more big play potential because of his speed but I also think he has talent as between the tackles runner. This could end up as a Mason/Stacy/Gurley situation if Washington chooses to go that route in next years draft. Maybe not. Maybe I'm completely wrong about Marshall and Jones.

For this year, everyone has their own opinions and values but I would stress everyone to use extreme caution when investing in Jones this offseason. 

 
Jones has what is most important for this coming season. And opportunity and not much competition. Chris tompson n keith marshall. Lets see what the kid does

 
DropKick said:
Forte averaged 3.5.

And Matt Forte put up 3.6 his sophomore season.  YPC can be and up and down thing.  The knock on Bell was that he was overweight.  It was something he addressed.

I can understand the question marks regarding Jones.  However, the Skins haven't done much to replace him.  If there were no warts, the price tag would be higher.   You never know when a young player will take a step forward.  Could be a nice value.
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Matt Forte also played through an MCL injury his 2nd year in the NFL and pulled his hamstring in training camp. Not sure I would quote that YPC. 

I wish I could remember a RB that averaged 3.4 YPC as a rookie and ever did anything. Taking out 1 game he's down to 2.9. Maybe he's just not good at football guys.

Washington didn't do much to replace him...what did you want them to do? Over draft a RB in a down RB class?

Round one: They would've had to have taken Derrick Henry in the 1st round

Round two: Or taken Kenyan Drake in the 2nd to get him. 

Round three: They would have had to have taken Prosise/Ervin/Dixon/Booker/Deandre Washington/Paul Perkins/Jordan Howard in round 3 because they didn't have a 4th round pick. Instead they took Kendall Fuller, which I thought was a great pick at the time and they needed a young talented CB. 

Round five: They could've had Wendall Smallwood/Jonathan Williams/Alex Collins.

Round seven: They take Keith Marshall(arguably better than Jones)

Now Washington could draft one of 20 RBs in next years class that are better than Jones or sign a free agent in Gio/Lacy/etc.

 
petekrum said:
Ya know, not every player comes into the league and dominates from the word go. A lot of these guys go through an adjustment period, much like Bell did with Steelers.
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I didn't know that...I figured they all were finished products. Thanks for bringing this to my attention.

 
tdmills said:
I play dynasty and if Jones starts for more than 1 more year, I would be completely shocked. 

I've already commented on 3.4 YPC for the year. However, he only had 3 games over 3.5 YPC(2 of which were the 1st two weeks)! Taking out his best week and he's averaging 2.9 YPC. You think an NFL will stick behind him while it's 3 yards and a cloud of dust because he's a 3rd round pick?

NFL teams want to win and Jones is JAG that is below replacement level IMO. Which is why I would buy Marshall.
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Like I said, he was a rookie and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.  First NFL season and a nagging injury...  Washington didn't do much to address the position so it appears they have less concern than you do.   Jones could prove to be a plodder and he could also prove to be an effective back.  Time will tell.

 
tdmills said:
Equally crazy to think a 3rd round RB that averaged 3.4 YPC is safe from anybody
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The second the Redskins stumble onto a back with any sort of profile I'll be buying.  It's a pretty straightforward road to relevance for anyone competent.

 
Is it just an odd perception or is it true that a lot of people really don't see a reason why Keith Marshall can't take this job or that if a guy like Arian Foster comes in (and stays healthy), that Jones might be 2nd banana?

 
Shutout said:
Is it just an odd perception or is it true that a lot of people really don't see a reason why Keith Marshall can't take this job or that if a guy like Arian Foster comes in (and stays healthy), that Jones might be 2nd banana?
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I think everyone realizes that he could lose the job at any time. His ADP would be much higher if people weren't aware and afraid of exactly that. 

 
Foster at this point is just wishful thinking..a high mileage overused older RB coming off of an Achilles' tear is going to do what now? Nonsense..

Foster was in serious decline anyways.

People are hyping Foster in the Ajayi. Thread as well as here vs. Matt Jones..

Maybe neither Jones nor Ajayi amount to a hill of beans and thats fair enough..but theres simply no way Foster does anything more than either of these guys.. if you're Jones and you cant beat out Foster, it's time to hang 'em up.same for Ajayi.

Doubtful Foster signs anywhere...cant name a single old high mileage rb coming off a torn Achilles' who did anything at all upon returning to the field.in other words his career is over..

Matt Jones could be garbage too..but he isnt going to be beaten out by Foster.

 
Tanner9919 said:
Foster at this point is just wishful thinking..a high mileage overused older RB coming off of an Achilles' tear is going to do what now? Nonsense..

Foster was in serious decline anyways.

People are hyping Foster in the Ajayi. Thread as well as here vs. Matt Jones..

Maybe neither Jones nor Ajayi amount to a hill of beans and thats fair enough..but theres simply no way Foster does anything more than either of these guys.. if you're Jones and you cant beat out Foster, it's time to hang 'em up.same for Ajayi.

Doubtful Foster signs anywhere...cant name a single old high mileage rb coming off a torn Achilles' who did anything at all upon returning to the field.in other words his career is over..

Matt Jones could be garbage too..but he isnt going to be beaten out by Foster.
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It's crazy! I'm not sure why so many are thinking that Foster is going to make any type of impact. 

Tex

 
ESPN's John Keim reports the Redskins have "(seen) what they wanted" from Matt Jones this spring.
Per Keim, the "sense" is that the Redskins will be much better off at running back than they were in 2015 if Jones "performs this season the way he has practiced this spring." Jones spent most of the offseason working on fundamentals, like taking handoffs and better ball security. He's being set up for success, but it's not a guarantee it will come. He's a risk/reward RB2.

 
 
Source: ESPN.com
Jun 16 - 8:44 PM
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ESPN Redskins reporter John Keim confirms Matt Jones is secure as the team's starting running back.
 
Wrote Keim, "Make no mistake: Jones is the starter and the guy the Redskins are most excited about. Period." Jones didn't play like a starter as a rookie, but he has essentially been handed the feature back role on a silver platter in year two. Albeit a suspect talent, Jones offers big workload upside this year. He projects to only lose situational snaps to passing-down back Chris Thompson.

 
 
Source: ESPN.com 
Aug 6 - 9:05 AM
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big RB, catches the ball, has every opportunity at 300 touches

not many RB's in the league has such an opportunity and WAS has good WR's and a good QB, its not like DEF can stack against the running game

 
Stealthycat said:
big RB, catches the ball, has every opportunity at 300 touches

not many RB's in the league has such an opportunity and WAS has good WR's and a good QB, its not like DEF can stack against the running game
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He was so incredibly bad last year and pretty unimpressive in college. I have a hard time seeing him doing well.

 
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