Earliest You Will Consider Matt Ryan (1 Viewer)

[display name]

I hate trying to predict the round a player will be drafted because every league is so variable when it comes to scoring and the tendencies of owners. I think it is much better to state where a particular player ranks relative to other players at the same position and let everyone decide what that means for their particular draft.Right now I have Ryan as the #10 ranked QB on my board but I can see the arguments to put him all the way up to #5. So I guess the answer is that I could see drafting him as the 5th QB off the board. In my league that makes him a mid 2nd round pick but, of course, YMMV.

Good points here. In my league mid level QB's tend to be taken a little earlier. Personally I rate Matt Ryan as the 6th best QB and in the same ballpark as Eli Manning (QB7). Rivers best weapon is gone, Romo's weapons are all hurting, Vick looks like a big injury risk right now and I think the days of him running wild have passed (he is 32). I could see a case being made for taking him late 3rd/early 4th in my league. (4 points for passing touchdown -2 for interceptions, start 1 QB). I think he performs a little better than last year. If you are drinking the kool-aid and think he goes to the next level with 4500+ and 35+ touchdowns a case can be made for early 3rd round.

 

[GridironMenace]

He went 11th overall in one of our FBG staff leagues and 23rd in the other. The hype is in full force over him at this point.

And thus starts my search for a new Fantasy Football advice website...pathetic.

OMG!!! ONE STAFFER HAS A GUY RANKED OUT OF LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS!!!Never mind the other dozen or so staffers. Check the box to exclude any staffer you want in the rankings, then move on.

It has nothing to do with being out of line with the consensus. It has to do with being an absolutely terrible pick. Even if Ryan throws for 40 TD's (highly unlikely) the pick has zero value. None. Nada. Zilch. If you are over-drafting a player to the point that there is only downside and virtually zero upside, the pick shouldn't be made. Period. As a subscriber I would like to know who made that pick. I would also like to know if he was drunk or was forced against his will to make it.

 

[12punch]

He went 11th overall in one of our FBG staff leagues and 23rd in the other. The hype is in full force over him at this point.

And thus starts my search for a new Fantasy Football advice website...pathetic.

Fantasy football is the last great snake oil frontier

 

[MAC_32]

The ONLY legit negative with Ryan is that he hasn't had a season better than last year

That's my problem, he's topped out at 4177/29. To meet expectations he has to make a jump to levels he hasn't seen before, QB's typically make the biggest jump in year 2, not year 5 so this is tough to get behind. I can see him reaching that level, but passing it? Doubt it, I just don't see the profit potential, you're not getting the discount on a breakout year, you're paying a premium expecting it.

 

[-jb-]

Front page of Yahoo! today: Pic of Matt Ryan, followed by, "This guy might end up being the steal of the draft"

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

He went 11th overall in one of our FBG staff leagues and 23rd in the other. The hype is in full force over him at this point.

And thus starts my search for a new Fantasy Football advice website...pathetic.

OMG!!! ONE STAFFER HAS A GUY RANKED OUT OF LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS!!!Never mind the other dozen or so staffers. Check the box to exclude any staffer you want in the rankings, then move on.

It has nothing to do with being out of line with the consensus. It has to do with being an absolutely terrible pick. Even if Ryan throws for 40 TD's (highly unlikely) the pick has zero value. None. Nada. Zilch. If you are over-drafting a player to the point that there is only downside and virtually zero upside, the pick shouldn't be made. Period. As a subscriber I would like to know who made that pick. I would also like to know if he was drunk or was forced against his will to make it.

I guess we look at things differently. Speaking of 40 TDs, I'd think that say Stafford last year drafted in the same spot in a 14 team league would have been well worth that pick. And if you think Ryan is going to be that good, shouldn't you go ahead and draft him?I'm actually glad that one of the analysts has Ryan ranked that highly. Do I agree? Heck no. Doesn't matter. This is what makes footballguys great. I want different opinions on players. It makes me think, look back at what I'm doing, compare them to the players I have around them. What's the point of having 10+ great guys ranking players if they're all ranking them near ADP?

As a subscriber like me, you can look at the redraft rankings and find the guy. If you think he's nuts just exclude him from the rankings. You may want to look at some of the other outlier types like Matt Waldman while you're at it.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

He went 11th overall in one of our FBG staff leagues and 23rd in the other. The hype is in full force over him at this point.

And thus starts my search for a new Fantasy Football advice website...pathetic.

OMG!!! ONE STAFFER HAS A GUY RANKED OUT OF LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS!!!Never mind the other dozen or so staffers. Check the box to exclude any staffer you want in the rankings, then move on.

It has nothing to do with being out of line with the consensus. It has to do with being an absolutely terrible pick. Even if Ryan throws for 40 TD's (highly unlikely) the pick has zero value. None. Nada. Zilch. If you are over-drafting a player to the point that there is only downside and virtually zero upside, the pick shouldn't be made. Period. As a subscriber I would like to know who made that pick. I would also like to know if he was drunk or was forced against his will to make it.

It is a horrible pick.But you can go to the overall redraft rankings, which features SIXTEEN staffers' rankings, see who has Matt Ryan ranked way too high, hover over the ranking to see his reasoning for the ranking, then choose to disagree or agree. If you disagree, you can exclude this person's rankings rather easily.Saying

And thus starts my search for a new Fantasy Football advice website...pathetic.

is silly. IT IS ONE PERSON'S OPINION ON ONE PLAYER OUT OF 16 PEOPLE'S RANKINGS.

 

[karmarooster]

The ONLY legit negative with Ryan is that he hasn't had a season better than last year

That's my problem, he's topped out at 4177/29. To meet expectations he has to make a jump to levels he hasn't seen before, QB's typically make the biggest jump in year 2, not year 5 so this is tough to get behind. I can see him reaching that level, but passing it? Doubt it, I just don't see the profit potential, you're not getting the discount on a breakout year, you're paying a premium expecting it.

I don't think this statement is entirely true. It's correct that QBs make the biggest JUMP from in year 2 (check out the steep slope from year 1 to 2):http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2012/12cummings_careerarcs_qbs.phpBut year 5 is clearly better than year 2. Theoretically year 6 is the career year. The article indicates that QBs typically perform best between years 4 and 7/8 in the league. According to this, Ryan is entering a multi-year window for his best performance as a QB. I don't see the logic in assuming that a 26 year old Ryan in his 4th year as a starter has already hit his peak or "topped out," especially when you consider that last year Julio was a rookie and still fairly beast. With Julio as a 2nd year, and Roddy White 30 years old, and Ryan now 27 going into his 5th year, you could argue that this is the perfect window for him, because a year or two down the road, Roddy will be 30+, and Gonzo will most certainly be retired.He only needs to make an incremental improvement to get to 4,500 and 30. Which would justify his draft position as QB6/7.

 

[Badgers Fan]

Matt Ryan has one of the best fantasy playoff schedule's around. At the panthers, home to the Giants, at Detroit. 2 of those are dome games, one is at a place where you don't get snow or terrible weather too often (carolina). All 3 teams can put points on the board which will keep the Falcons throwing, and each team has at the very best a below average secondary.

 

[MAC_32]

I guess we look at things differently. Speaking of 40 TDs, I'd think that say Stafford last year drafted in the same spot in a 14 team league would have been well worth that pick. And if you think Ryan is going to be that good, shouldn't you go ahead and draft him?

What made Stafford such a great pick last year was the value price he cost, it's why I went after him everywhere. He had the ceiling he showed in 2011, but expecting that in August would be foolish. We all have our favorite breakout candidates, but when it comes to guys that have been starting in the league for more than a couple of years it's a mistake to pay expecting the breakout. You're not getting any value from the pick. Championship teams are primarily built on players providing profit relative to where they were selected, there wouldn't have been much profit in taking Stafford in round 3 or 4 last year, same goes for Ryan this year. If Ryan cost what Stafford cost last year, I'm on board, unfortunately he's not.

 

[MAC_32]

The ONLY legit negative with Ryan is that he hasn't had a season better than last year

That's my problem, he's topped out at 4177/29. To meet expectations he has to make a jump to levels he hasn't seen before, QB's typically make the biggest jump in year 2, not year 5 so this is tough to get behind. I can see him reaching that level, but passing it? Doubt it, I just don't see the profit potential, you're not getting the discount on a breakout year, you're paying a premium expecting it.

I don't think this statement is entirely true. It's correct that QBs make the biggest JUMP from in year 2 (check out the steep slope from year 1 to 2):http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2012/12cummings_careerarcs_qbs.phpBut year 5 is clearly better than year 2. Theoretically year 6 is the career year. The article indicates that QBs typically perform best between years 4 and 7/8 in the league. According to this, Ryan is entering a multi-year window for his best performance as a QB. I don't see the logic in assuming that a 26 year old Ryan in his 4th year as a starter has already hit his peak or "topped out," especially when you consider that last year Julio was a rookie and still fairly beast. With Julio as a 2nd year, and Roddy White 30 years old, and Ryan now 27 going into his 5th year, you could argue that this is the perfect window for him, because a year or two down the road, Roddy will be 30+, and Gonzo will most certainly be retired.He only needs to make an incremental improvement to get to 4,500 and 30. Which would justify his draft position as QB6/7.

I'm not saying he has peaked, I'm just identifying his peak to date. As I indicated I think he could be in line for a jump to levels already produced by Romo, Rivers, and Eli. The problem is I'm not getting the same discount I have gotten for these guys before their respective jumps. I want to maximize profit potential with each of my picks and I'm not with Ryan by taking him in the 3rd or 4th.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I guess we look at things differently. Speaking of 40 TDs, I'd think that say Stafford last year drafted in the same spot in a 14 team league would have been well worth that pick. And if you think Ryan is going to be that good, shouldn't you go ahead and draft him?

What made Stafford such a great pick last year was the value price he cost, it's why I went after him everywhere. He had the ceiling he showed in 2011, but expecting that in August would be foolish. We all have our favorite breakout candidates, but when it comes to guys that have been starting in the league for more than a couple of years it's a mistake to pay expecting the breakout. You're not getting any value from the pick. Championship teams are primarily built on players providing profit relative to where they were selected, there wouldn't have been much profit in taking Stafford in round 3 or 4 last year, same goes for Ryan this year. If Ryan cost what Stafford cost last year, I'm on board, unfortunately he's not.

I'd say it was more the 5000 yards and 41 TDs Of course it's better to draft a player later, but Stafford put up near Rodgers numbers. If Rodgers was worth his draft spot in the 1st round-and I think we all agree he was-Stafford would have been worth the same thing especially in a 14 team league.

Also, I'm not arguing for ranking Matt Ryan that highly. If you have him as the 2nd best QB in a 14 team league and you don't want to risk him not coming back then I'm arguing that you should stick to your convictions and take him there. If you are right then it is worth the pick. I threw out Stafford because that's clearly his level of performance-and again that performance is worth 1.11 in a 14 team league.

Another way to think of it is-if he had taken say Cam Newton there, I don't think everyone would be up in arms. he happens to think that Ryan will put up Newton or higher numbers. Shouldn't he take the guy he thinks will be best?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I love all the talk about "in what years do QB's perform the best", etc....people that rely on stuff like that to determine their picks are chasing and following stats/trends....big mistake....

things (philosphy, etc) have changed pretty dramatically in ATL THIS year....what Ryan did 3 years ago, two years ago, and even last year really mean didly squat...

his skyrocketing ADP is justified....

you can argue all day whether he provides value in the 3rd or 4th....obviously it is not as good as 5th or 6th....but it still may be value if he puts up points like the guys taken in rounds 1 and 2...

personally I expect an increase in yardage but also more importantly an increase in TD's....I expect the passing game to be option A getting into the end zone....even inside the 5 or 10.....

with the hurry up, I also expect them to have more possessions each game which will also increase the TD count....I don't think 42+ TD's are out of the question...that to me is what really distances him from the Romos, Rivers, and Eli's etc.....

 

[Stinkin Ref]

it's about talent and opportunity....

not only individual talent but the talent around you.....and opportunity is not only the ability to be on the field, but what is going on while you are on that field....

if Kurt Warner was the back up QB....let's say in Baltimore when he got his shot.....instead of being the backup in STL behind some guy named Trent Green.....you might not even really know who he was today....

 

[David Yudkin]

it's about talent and opportunity....not only individual talent but the talent around you.....and opportunity is not only the ability to be on the field, but what is going on while you are on that field....if Kurt Warner was the back up QB....let's say in Baltimore when he got his shot.....instead of being the backup in STL behind some guy named Trent Green.....you might not even really know who he was today....

OR . . .Baltimore could have been the team that won a SB and went to another one. We just don't know what would have happened.

 

[MAC_32]

If you have him as the 2nd best QB in a 14 team league and you don't want to risk him not coming back then I'm arguing that you should stick to your convictions and take him there.

There's no reason to have him ranked that highly though. There really isn't an argument to expect him to match any of the top 5 unless you're still not there with Cam. So you think he might be able to get 5000/35, maybe even a few more TD's, even though he's never come close to it. Ceiling, fine, I get it, I'm almost there too. However, the fact that he hasn't come close before and he hasn't had health as an excuse like Stafford gets priced into your valuation, otherwise you're doing it wrong. Paying a premium price for your potential breakouts means no profit on your picks, even if you hit. Championship teams are built around profitable players. Stafford and Cam were value last year because they were so cheap, same with guys like Cruz, Sproles, and Jordy. Guys that hadn't done it before, and then did. Find those guys and get them at the end, don't pay for it early when building your core.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

it's about talent and opportunity....not only individual talent but the talent around you.....and opportunity is not only the ability to be on the field, but what is going on while you are on that field....if Kurt Warner was the back up QB....let's say in Baltimore when he got his shot.....instead of being the backup in STL behind some guy named Trent Green.....you might not even really know who he was today....

OR . . .Baltimore could have been the team that won a SB and went to another one. We just don't know what would have happened.

my point is strictly fantasy numbers.....it appears ATL is going to look more like the greatest show on turf this year then they are a ground and pound Jamaal Lewis down your throat type of situation....or even anything like the ATL of the past few years....basing Ryans's draft position on the stats he put up the last few years (as some have done)and when QB's enter there prime or some crap doesn't seem to hold as much weight as a significant change in offensive philosophy...

 

[12punch]

Matt Ryan has one of the best fantasy playoff schedule's around. At the panthers, home to the Giants, at Detroit. 2 of those are dome games, one is at a place where you don't get snow or terrible weather too often (carolina). All 3 teams can put points on the board which will keep the Falcons throwing, and each team has at the very best a below average secondary.

LooooolYeah, he was killin' the giants last year

 

[Stinkin Ref]

If you have him as the 2nd best QB in a 14 team league and you don't want to risk him not coming back then I'm arguing that you should stick to your convictions and take him there.

There's no reason to have him ranked that highly though. There really isn't an argument to expect him to match any of the top 5 unless you're still not there with Cam. So you think he might be able to get 5000/35, maybe even a few more TD's, even though he's never come close to it. Ceiling, fine, I get it, I'm almost there too. However, the fact that he hasn't come close before and he hasn't had health as an excuse like Stafford gets priced into your valuation, otherwise you're doing it wrong. Paying a premium price for your potential breakouts means no profit on your picks, even if you hit. Championship teams are built around profitable players. Stafford and Cam were value last year because they were so cheap, same with guys like Cruz, Sproles, and Jordy. Guys that hadn't done it before, and then did. Find those guys and get them at the end, don't pay for it early when building your core.

I think the majority in here agree that at this point he does not seem to represent value in the 1st or 2nd....but he can no longer be had in the 5th or 6th....so does he represent value in the 3rd or 4th if he produces numbers similiar to those taken in the 1st or second.....again....I don't really like to look at it as far as "rounds" go....but some do....to me it's about where he ranks compared to the other QB's....with rounds, there is a big difference between 3.01 and 4.12....what you want to be able to do is get Rodgers/Brady/Brees etc type numbers at a discount and combine that with the talent you take in rounds 1 and 2 where those other guys are going....the combination allows you to distance yourself from the owners of the other 3......cause theoretically, your 1st and 2nd at the other positions should outscore the guys they take at those positions in rounds 3 or 4 where you take Ryan....

 

[massraider]

I am completely sick of this guy, and it's August.

 

[massraider]

....basing Ryans's draft position on the stats he put up the last few years (as some have done)and when QB's enter there prime or some crap doesn't seem to hold as much weight as a significant change in offensive philosophy...

Is that change in danger of getting overrated? Are we to discount every other factor that tells us he is a 2nd tier QB? And now it's 'similar' numbers to the top guys. Hoo boy.

 

[mrip541]

He's going to need an extra thousand yards and 10 tds to justify how early I see him going. If you think Brees/Rodgers/Brady will improve on their numbers from last year I don't think the value play is to wait 1-2 more rounds and take Ryan.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

....basing Ryans's draft position on the stats he put up the last few years (as some have done)and when QB's enter there prime or some crap doesn't seem to hold as much weight as a significant change in offensive philosophy...

Is that change in danger of getting overrated? Are we to discount every other factor that tells us he is a 2nd tier QB? And now it's 'similar' numbers to the top guys. Hoo boy.

is the change in danger of getting overrated?.....maybe, because now we have actually seen it in action and it looks pretty awesome....it's one thing to talk the talk of these changes, it's another to actually walk the walk...the jump in his ADP is very much justified at this point and I think still reasonable...what does overrated really mean anyway...too much hype?....I don't know....his ADP hasn't actually gotten up there with the big boys yet even though some seem to think he can put up those kind of numbers.... Are we to discount every other factor that tells us he is a 2nd tier QB? ......what excatly are those....cause you can't really take the change in philosophy out and then still use what has happened in the past as a measuring stick....you can choose to discount them or not...his PAST stats have maybe made him a 2nd tier QB, but I could care less what he has done in the past...it's all about projections.....if you project that he will put up stats similiar to the QB's taken in round 1 or 2...then getting him 2-3 rounds later may represent some value to you....maybe not

 

[Stinkin Ref]

He's going to need an extra thousand yards and 10 tds to justify how early I see him going. If you think Brees/Rodgers/Brady will improve on their numbers from last year I don't think the value play is to wait 1-2 more rounds and take Ryan.

and those numbers you spoke of I think are in the ball park of the jump some people think may be possible...thus the discussion...

 

[zandbak]

I guess we look at things differently. Speaking of 40 TDs, I'd think that say Stafford last year drafted in the same spot in a 14 team league would have been well worth that pick. And if you think Ryan is going to be that good, shouldn't you go ahead and draft him?

What made Stafford such a great pick last year was the value price he cost, it's why I went after him everywhere. He had the ceiling he showed in 2011, but expecting that in August would be foolish. We all have our favorite breakout candidates, but when it comes to guys that have been starting in the league for more than a couple of years it's a mistake to pay expecting the breakout. You're not getting any value from the pick. Championship teams are primarily built on players providing profit relative to where they were selected, there wouldn't have been much profit in taking Stafford in round 3 or 4 last year, same goes for Ryan this year. If Ryan cost what Stafford cost last year, I'm on board, unfortunately he's not.

There's an argument to be made about drafting based on projected value, and trying to cherry pick all the breakout candidates. If the only way you plan to draft anyone is to find players 'projected' to blow past their ADP and not meet it or slightly exceed, you're going to have a bad draft. You're banking too much on hopes and dreams. Taking Ryan in the 3rd-4th rounds isn't sexy, but a steady rock is always important. And you also don't run the risk of letting your breakout candidates slipping too far and being added before you think their value/likelyhood of being drafted is peaked.

 

[We Tigers]

A week ago, folks were touting Ryan as likely to hit 4500/30, and that making him great value even in round 5. Now you're talking 42 TDs, numbers similar to the 1st rounders, and so on. You're inadvertently making the point about his "value" becoming increasingly hitched to massive expectations, which hardly makes it value at all.

 

[FDC]

A week ago, folks were touting Ryan as likely to hit 4500/30, and that making him great value even in round 5. Now you're talking 42 TDs, numbers similar to the 1st rounders, and so on. You're inadvertently making the point about his "value" becoming increasingly hitched to massive expectations, which hardly makes it value at all.

Something should be said to the 'ebb and flow strategy' (yes I just made that word up)Sometimes you just feel like a guy is poised for a break out year. Its his time to shine and I understand why one would reach on a guy like that. And on the other side of that coin it feels like some guys are just due for a hiccup year. Brees is that guy for me this year.

 

[MAC_32]

what you want to be able to do is get Rodgers/Brady/Brees etc type numbers at a discount and combine that with the talent you take in rounds 1 and 2 where those other guys are going....the combination allows you to distance yourself from the owners of the other 3......cause theoretically, your 1st and 2nd at the other positions should outscore the guys they take at those positions in rounds 3 or 4 where you take Ryan....

This is why I keep coming back to the other QB's. I feel a little more comfortable with Ryan entering the next tier than the others, but enough to be forced into a Denarius Moore type of WR instead of a Harvin? Nope. It's about the trade off. I think the trade off in the 3rd and 4th round WR's vs. those likely available 2, 3, 4 rounds later is much steeper than the QB. If Ryan does bust out (lets say 5k and 33), but Rivers returns to his 2010 form (4700+ and 30), I think I'm making up that difference with Jordy instead of the WR you're taking when I'm looking at Rivers. I realize you don't have to go WR there, just makes the comparison cleaner instead of going into 19 different if statements. Although same story applies at RB in a Shonn Greene type vs. Doug Martin.

 

[David Yudkin]

it's about talent and opportunity....not only individual talent but the talent around you.....and opportunity is not only the ability to be on the field, but what is going on while you are on that field....if Kurt Warner was the back up QB....let's say in Baltimore when he got his shot.....instead of being the backup in STL behind some guy named Trent Green.....you might not even really know who he was today....

OR . . .Baltimore could have been the team that won a SB and went to another one. We just don't know what would have happened.

my point is strictly fantasy numbers.....it appears ATL is going to look more like the greatest show on turf this year then they are a ground and pound Jamaal Lewis down your throat type of situation....or even anything like the ATL of the past few years....basing Ryans's draft position on the stats he put up the last few years (as some have done)and when QB's enter there prime or some crap doesn't seem to hold as much weight as a significant change in offensive philosophy...

The way I go about things, I more heavily weigh the past than look into a crystal ball for the future. Sure, the Falcons look good in the preseason, but the regular season usually is completely different. The way I assess things, no matter how the Falcons look in the preseason (good or bad), I would still come up with a rough outline and projection to the upcoming season. I think the fact that Ryan and Jones have looked unstoppable is clouding people's judgment that he is superhuman. Maybe he will put up Brees / Rodgers / Brady numbers, but to draft him where I personally see him getting drafted he HAS to put up those type of numbers. Myself, I would take the guys that have already done it over the guy that hasn't yet.I always reference Daunte Culpepper in 2005. He had one of the greatest fantasy seasons ever in 2004. That was the year Peyton threw for 49 TD . . . but Culpepper ended the year as the #1 fantasy QB. Coming off a season for the ages, Culpepper looked unstoppable in the 2005 preseason. He completed 36 of 44 passes (82%) for 520 yards in limited action for a whopping 11.8 YPA. Culpepper (who had just had a monster season) saw his already high fantasy stock climb even higher. Then the regular season came around and for those that don't remember, Culpepper started the season with 12 picks in the first 4 games and ended up never being the same (combined with an injury) and became an also ran QB on three teams over the next 3 seasons.I don't in any way, shape, or form think that Ryan will go the way that Culpepper did, but the fact remains that preseason games can be deceiving. It SOUNDS like there will be a phase shift in offensive philosophy, but that's more based on spculation and beat writers opinions. Will they pass more than before? I think so. will they pass like the Saints or Lions? I would guess not. I suspect the answer will be somewhere in the middle.To me, if he was available later in the draft, he would be an ideal draft candidate. But now he's gotten to the point (again, where I have seen him drafted), where he has to produce at a level way higher than he has to date. So now his ROI is limited, as there is not alot of upside left.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

A week ago, folks were touting Ryan as likely to hit 4500/30, and that making him great value even in round 5. Now you're talking 42 TDs, numbers similar to the 1st rounders, and so on. You're inadvertently making the point about his "value" becoming increasingly hitched to massive expectations, which hardly makes it value at all.

so if he does put up those numbers (4800/42)....and you get him a couple/few rounds after the top 5 are gone...you wouldn't consider that value...?the thing is it seems like some people seem to want to continue to hide their head in the sand and pretend they haven't seen what has been going on in hopes of still being able to land Ryan in the 5th or 6th.....it ain't gonna happen...there is EVERY indication his numbers are going up....not only have we heard it, we have seen it...what you are projecting for him determines which side of this you fall on.....it is definatley a gamble/roll of the dice to expect him to put up numbers like the big boys.....but most of that is based on past history....everything else seems to indicate that it is possible...I choose not hide my head in the sand....will I draft him....I don't know...but if he does put up 4800/42...personally depending on your league...that could represent some value after the other guys are taken a few rounds earlier....what are your projections for him..?

 

[MAC_32]

I guess we look at things differently. Speaking of 40 TDs, I'd think that say Stafford last year drafted in the same spot in a 14 team league would have been well worth that pick. And if you think Ryan is going to be that good, shouldn't you go ahead and draft him?

What made Stafford such a great pick last year was the value price he cost, it's why I went after him everywhere. He had the ceiling he showed in 2011, but expecting that in August would be foolish. We all have our favorite breakout candidates, but when it comes to guys that have been starting in the league for more than a couple of years it's a mistake to pay expecting the breakout. You're not getting any value from the pick. Championship teams are primarily built on players providing profit relative to where they were selected, there wouldn't have been much profit in taking Stafford in round 3 or 4 last year, same goes for Ryan this year. If Ryan cost what Stafford cost last year, I'm on board, unfortunately he's not.

There's an argument to be made about drafting based on projected value, and trying to cherry pick all the breakout candidates. If the only way you plan to draft anyone is to find players 'projected' to blow past their ADP and not meet it or slightly exceed, you're going to have a bad draft. You're banking too much on hopes and dreams. Taking Ryan in the 3rd-4th rounds isn't sexy, but a steady rock is always important. And you also don't run the risk of letting your breakout candidates slipping too far and being added before you think their value/likelyhood of being drafted is peaked.

It's a trade off. Early on I want to draft guys that have either done it before and I can expect them to match or exceed it and in cases like young RB's I can reasonably expect them to become quality feature backs. As the draft goes on I want guys that will outproduce their draft position, most of us in redraft leagues burn and churn the majority of the last half of our draft so I want as much upside as I can get in those picks. More darts thrown, better chance of connecting. It does depend on the league though, I'm in one league in which due to positional roster limits it is impossible to find QB's on waivers in-season and except for the rare Cruz and Antonio Brown types impossible to find anything more than a WR3 or top 10 TE in-season. I got Vick at what I thought was good value (5th round, after Ryan btw - I took Julio in the 3rd and Harvin in the 4th) but since I got him I knew I needed to focus on QB depth so I have Locker and Fitzpatrick behind him. The only starters still available are Weeden, Gabbert, Sanchez, and Tannehill. That's not going to be the case in all leagues though, just trying to put some context into what I'm saying.

 

[We Tigers]

A week ago, folks were touting Ryan as likely to hit 4500/30, and that making him great value even in round 5. Now you're talking 42 TDs, numbers similar to the 1st rounders, and so on. You're inadvertently making the point about his "value" becoming increasingly hitched to massive expectations, which hardly makes it value at all.

so if he does put up those numbers....and you get him a couple/few rounds after the top 5 are gone...you wouldn't consider that value...?the thing is it seems like some people seem to want to continue to hide their head in the sand and pretend they haven't seen what has been going on in hopes of still being able to land Ryan in the 5th or 6th.....it ain't gonna happen...there is EVERY indication his numbers are going up....not only have we heard it, we have seen it...what you are projecting for him determines which side of this you fall on.....it is definatley a gamble/roll of the dice to expect him to put up numbers like the big boys.....but most of that is based on past history....everything else seems to indicate that it is possible...I choose not hide my head in the sand....will I draft him....I don't know...but if he does put up 4800/42...personally depending on your league...that could represent some value after the other guys are taken a few rounds earlier....what are your projections for him..?

Sure, it'd be value. However, you must understand how rare those types of seasons/performances are. Stafford achieved the production you're looking for with 660 passing attempts, but the Falcons are not going to approach 660 passing attempts, no matter what you've seen in the preseason. And you didn't have to reach to get Stafford last year; as long as he had a pretty good season, he'd pay off, since he was coming off the board around QB10-12 by draft day. You must understand how wild it is to throw out 4800/42 as your expectation for Matt Ryan when just 3 QBs have *ever* done that: Dan Marino in 1984, Drew Brees last year, and Tom Brady in 2007. And let's not forget that Brees did it with the Saints running an astounding number of plays--over 1100--which the Falcons are, again, not likely at all to match.I'm not overlooking Ryan; in fact, I think he's likely to land around 4300 yards and 30+ TDs. I think he'll have a really great season, easily his career best. I'm just not going to pay for that when I can grab Eli, Romo, or Rivers 2-3 rounds later now, and come up just 20 or so fantasy points below that (if at all) on the year.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

it's about talent and opportunity....

not only individual talent but the talent around you.....and opportunity is not only the ability to be on the field, but what is going on while you are on that field....

if Kurt Warner was the back up QB....let's say in Baltimore when he got his shot.....instead of being the backup in STL behind some guy named Trent Green.....you might not even really know who he was today....

OR . . .Baltimore could have been the team that won a SB and went to another one. We just don't know what would have happened.

my point is strictly fantasy numbers.....it appears ATL is going to look more like the greatest show on turf this year then they are a ground and pound Jamaal Lewis down your throat type of situation....or even anything like the ATL of the past few years....basing Ryans's draft position on the stats he put up the last few years (as some have done)and when QB's enter there prime or some crap doesn't seem to hold as much weight as a significant change in offensive philosophy...

Myself, I would take the guys that have already done it over the guy that hasn't yet.

It SOUNDS like there will be a phase shift in offensive philosophy, but that's more based on spculation and beat writers opinions. Will they pass more than before? I think so. will they pass like the Saints or Lions? I would guess not. I suspect the answer will be somewhere in the middle.

To me, if he was available later in the draft, he would be an ideal draft candidate. But now he's gotten to the point (again, where I have seen him drafted), where he has to produce at a level way higher than he has to date. So now his ROI is limited, as there is not alot of upside left.

No crap....I think we would all take the guy that has done it before over the guy that hasn't, but you have to pay more for the first guy. You don't have to pay as much for the second guy. If you have watched ATL's first team so far in preseason, I think it s fair to say it is more than "SOUNDS like"

and obviously he is more value later then earlier....and his rising ADP limits the ROI....but he ain't up there yet with the big boys....he is still 2 rounds or so after them.....so the question is, while the value/ROI is decreasing, is it still worth it...

getting Brady/Rodgers/Brees numbers even 2 rounds later seems like some value you could still work with....

 

[David Yudkin]

it's about talent and opportunity....

not only individual talent but the talent around you.....and opportunity is not only the ability to be on the field, but what is going on while you are on that field....

if Kurt Warner was the back up QB....let's say in Baltimore when he got his shot.....instead of being the backup in STL behind some guy named Trent Green.....you might not even really know who he was today....

OR . . .Baltimore could have been the team that won a SB and went to another one. We just don't know what would have happened.

my point is strictly fantasy numbers.....it appears ATL is going to look more like the greatest show on turf this year then they are a ground and pound Jamaal Lewis down your throat type of situation....or even anything like the ATL of the past few years....basing Ryans's draft position on the stats he put up the last few years (as some have done)and when QB's enter there prime or some crap doesn't seem to hold as much weight as a significant change in offensive philosophy...

Myself, I would take the guys that have already done it over the guy that hasn't yet.

It SOUNDS like there will be a phase shift in offensive philosophy, but that's more based on spculation and beat writers opinions. Will they pass more than before? I think so. will they pass like the Saints or Lions? I would guess not. I suspect the answer will be somewhere in the middle.

To me, if he was available later in the draft, he would be an ideal draft candidate. But now he's gotten to the point (again, where I have seen him drafted), where he has to produce at a level way higher than he has to date. So now his ROI is limited, as there is not alot of upside left.

No crap....I think we would all take the guy that has done it before over the guy that hasn't, but you have to pay more for the first guy. You don't have to pay as much for the second guy. If you have watched ATL's first team so far in preseason, I think it s fair to say it is more than "SOUNDS like"

and obviously he is more value later then earlier....and his rising ADP limits the ROI....but he ain't up there yet with the big boys....he is still 2 rounds or so after them.....so the question is, while the value/ROI is decreasing, is it still worth it...

getting Brady/Rodgers/Brees numbers even 2 rounds later seems like some value you could still work with....

I agree that in "normal" drafts Ryan's value is high. But in the FBG staff drafts, as a first round pick in one and second in the other, that seems too early to me.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

he basically threw for 4200/30 last year.....on 566 attempts

with the hurry up, no huddle, whatever you want to call it....I see these numbers increasing not only due to more possessions, but the talent they have....their weapons are no joke...this ain't the Jets saying we are going to run a hurry up....

an 800/10 increase seems realistic to me as well as an increase in attempts....

I don't see the Rivers, etc coming close to that....

we'll see....been a fun discussion...

 

[display name]

he basically threw for 4200/30 last year.....on 566 attemptswith the hurry up, no huddle, whatever you want to call it....I see these numbers increasing not only due to more possessions, but the talent they have....their weapons are no joke...this ain't the Jets saying we are going to run a hurry up....an 800/10 increase seems realistic to me as well as an increase in attempts....I don't see the Rivers, etc coming close to that....we'll see....been a fun discussion...

The Falcons already threw over 60% of the time last year and were 4th in pass attempts on the season. How many more pass attempts are really realistic? In my opinion Matt Ryan can't carry a team... he needs run support or he will be eaten alive by the opposing pash rush. Brees threw 70% last season. Insane. That probably won't happen again. Ryan wouldn't be able to carry the load like that without his efficiency dipping. Ryan doesn't pass the eyeball test compared to Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Stafford. He won't play on their level this season. 800/10 increase is beyond Ryan's ceiling. I don't even think that any of the top 5 repeat what happened last year. One QB might pass for 5000, and my pick would be Brady.4300 30/13 to come in at QB6. Value wise... I see no problem taking him in the 4th.

 

[Eminence]

He went 11th overall in one of our FBG staff leagues and 23rd in the other. The hype is in full force over him at this point.

And thus starts my search for a new Fantasy Football advice website...pathetic.

Well, it is an accurate reflection to what other people MAY do this season. Not saying I would even think about taking him that high but you know...

 

[RalphMouth]

A week ago, folks were touting Ryan as likely to hit 4500/30, and that making him great value even in round 5. Now you're talking 42 TDs, numbers similar to the 1st rounders, and so on. You're inadvertently making the point about his "value" becoming increasingly hitched to massive expectations, which hardly makes it value at all.

so if he does put up those numbers (4800/42)....and you get him a couple/few rounds after the top 5 are gone...you wouldn't consider that value...?the thing is it seems like some people seem to want to continue to hide their head in the sand and pretend they haven't seen what has been going on in hopes of still being able to land Ryan in the 5th or 6th.....it ain't gonna happen...there is EVERY indication his numbers are going up....not only have we heard it, we have seen it...what you are projecting for him determines which side of this you fall on.....it is definatley a gamble/roll of the dice to expect him to put up numbers like the big boys.....but most of that is based on past history....everything else seems to indicate that it is possible...I choose not hide my head in the sand....will I draft him....I don't know...but if he does put up 4800/42...personally depending on your league...that could represent some value after the other guys are taken a few rounds earlier....what are your projections for him..?

I'm thinking 4600 yds/ 38 TDsIs this good enough to take him as the 25th-27th overall pick knowingthat you have a stud RB in your back pocket & that WRs are deep ?What if Brees, Brady & Rogers all have lower stats than projected?I'm not concerned about what the top 4-5 projected QBs do stat wise as I'mworried that after Ryan we won't see any other QBs other than Eli whowill come close to what Ryan can possibly do.Did last year's increase in QB points happen because of the lockout/lackof offseason camps/practice ? Can we expect the Rogers & Brees of the world to come back closer to the pack?

 

[GridironMenace]

A week ago, folks were touting Ryan as likely to hit 4500/30, and that making him great value even in round 5. Now you're talking 42 TDs, numbers similar to the 1st rounders, and so on. You're inadvertently making the point about his "value" becoming increasingly hitched to massive expectations, which hardly makes it value at all.

so if he does put up those numbers (4800/42)....and you get him a couple/few rounds after the top 5 are gone...you wouldn't consider that value...?the thing is it seems like some people seem to want to continue to hide their head in the sand and pretend they haven't seen what has been going on in hopes of still being able to land Ryan in the 5th or 6th.....it ain't gonna happen...there is EVERY indication his numbers are going up....not only have we heard it, we have seen it...what you are projecting for him determines which side of this you fall on.....it is definatley a gamble/roll of the dice to expect him to put up numbers like the big boys.....but most of that is based on past history....everything else seems to indicate that it is possible...I choose not hide my head in the sand....will I draft him....I don't know...but if he does put up 4800/42...personally depending on your league...that could represent some value after the other guys are taken a few rounds earlier....what are your projections for him..?

I'm thinking 4600 yds/ 38 TDsIs this good enough to take him as the 25th-27th overall pick

No. I'm not sure what you don't understand about value. Value is what makes Ryan intriguing. Ryan as a 1st or 2nd round pick has zero value even if he puts up gaudy numbers. Let's say that you think Crabtree will put up 1800 yards and 17 TD's. Are you going to take him in the 1st or 2nd round even though you think he“ll put up elite numbers? No. Why not? Because he has no value. Same holds true for Ryan.

 

[jurb26]

I believe we can go ahead and coin the phrase Staffor-syndrome in fantasy football now. That seems to be what we are seeing in regards to Ryan. Everyone is looking back at the eruption Stafford had last year and are parlaying what they see as similarities to Ryan and thus, his meteoric rise in ADP.

The similarities most see are, and I'll rank these in order of perception;

1. Weapons. Really this syndrome begins with the ridiculous hype for J. Jones. I believe people view Jones raw ability as on par with Calvin, it's not, and thus feel he can have a similar impact to Ryan as Calvin did to Stafford. On top of that you have R. White, Gonzo and a good pair of RBs. People look at this wealth of weapons at Ryan's disposal and think, how can he not have a monster season?

2. Confidence in Ryan's ability. Many have felt Ryan was a fringe elite QB for years IMO. He had a great rookie year and has really never had a bad year to derail the confidence he built from then. Many have felt his fantasy success has been held back by the Atl commitment to running the ball. Most feel that will change this season and Atl will open up the play book to far more passing. Ryan's opportunity is perceived to be rising, a lot.

3. Growth in passing for the NFL. We are coming off a historical season in ten NFL from a passing stand point. Given Ryan's weapons and opportunity, surely he too will take advantage of this new passing epidemic going on in the NFL.

4. Division and dome. There is a feeling that Atl needs to keep up with the Jones'. In this case the Jones' are the Saints and Panthers. In order to win in the NFC South and in the NFC in general I think people feel you have to score, a lot. Seeing that Atl has the weapons to do so, why shouldn't they?

Personally I'm not really on board with all of this for various reasons. It is however the sense I've gotten ore the past few weeks of doing drafts. People think Ryan is the next Stafford. Just look at his weapons! They play in a dome! They have to keep up! Ryan could be elite! The main problems I have with are; Ryan is not as good as Stafford, the Atl running game is much better and the D is much better. There simply will not be a need for Ryan to pass the ball as much as Stafford did last year and thus he will not come close to approaching that kind of season. On top of that what made Stafford the value he was was that you could draft him in round 6, not round 2.

I would draft Ryan no earlier than round 6.

I hope my iPad didn't completely butcher this post....

 

[display name]

A week ago, folks were touting Ryan as likely to hit 4500/30, and that making him great value even in round 5. Now you're talking 42 TDs, numbers similar to the 1st rounders, and so on. You're inadvertently making the point about his "value" becoming increasingly hitched to massive expectations, which hardly makes it value at all.

so if he does put up those numbers (4800/42)....and you get him a couple/few rounds after the top 5 are gone...you wouldn't consider that value...?the thing is it seems like some people seem to want to continue to hide their head in the sand and pretend they haven't seen what has been going on in hopes of still being able to land Ryan in the 5th or 6th.....it ain't gonna happen...there is EVERY indication his numbers are going up....not only have we heard it, we have seen it...what you are projecting for him determines which side of this you fall on.....it is definatley a gamble/roll of the dice to expect him to put up numbers like the big boys.....but most of that is based on past history....everything else seems to indicate that it is possible...I choose not hide my head in the sand....will I draft him....I don't know...but if he does put up 4800/42...personally depending on your league...that could represent some value after the other guys are taken a few rounds earlier....what are your projections for him..?

I'm thinking 4600 yds/ 38 TDsIs this good enough to take him as the 25th-27th overall pick

No. I'm not sure what you don't understand about value. Value is what makes Ryan intriguing. Ryan as a 1st or 2nd round pick has zero value even if he puts up gaudy numbers. Let's say that you think Crabtree will put up 1800 yards and 17 TD's. Are you going to take him in the 1st or 2nd round even though you think he“ll put up elite numbers? No. Why not? Because he has no value. Same holds true for Ryan.

If he puts up 4600 and 38 then he definitely is good value in the late 2nd. Project the numbers out and plug them into a draft dominator and it will tell you that much. Anywhere after that and that kind of production at QB is more valuable than what would be available at RB and WR. I for one think you'd be a little insane to project those numbers for him. Then again it depends on your projection style. You can either be a literalist and if you have a 'hunch' on Matt Ryan you project him really high. Or you can use a handicapping style. His ceiling (admittedly high) is built in with other risk factors.

 

[karmarooster]

I believe we can go ahead and coin the phrase Staffor-syndrome in fantasy football now. That seems to be what we are seeing in regards to Ryan. Everyone is looking back at the eruption Stafford had last year and are parlaying what they see as similarities to Ryan and thus, his meteoric rise in ADP.

The similarities most see are, and I'll rank these in order of perception;

1. Weapons. Really this syndrome begins with the ridiculous hype for J. Jones. I believe people view Jones raw ability as on par with Calvin, it's not, and thus feel he can have a similar impact to Ryan as Calvin did to Stafford. On top of that you have R. White, Gonzo and a good pair of RBs. People look at this wealth of weapons at Ryan's disposal and think, how can he not have a monster season?

2. Confidence in Ryan's ability. Many have felt Ryan was a fringe elite QB for years IMO. He had a great rookie year and has really never had a bad year to derail the confidence he built from then. Many have felt his fantasy success has been held back by the Atl commitment to running the ball. Most feel that will change this season and Atl will open up the play book to far more passing. Ryan's opportunity is perceived to be rising, a lot.

3. Growth in passing for the NFL. We are coming off a historical season in ten NFL from a passing stand point. Given Ryan's weapons and opportunity, surely he too will take advantage of this new passing epidemic going on in the NFL.

4. Division and dome. There is a feeling that Atl needs to keep up with the Jones'. In this case the Jones' are the Saints and Panthers. In order to win in the NFC South and in the NFC in general I think people feel you have to score, a lot. Seeing that Atl has the weapons to do so, why shouldn't they?

Personally I'm not really on board with all of this for various reasons. It is however the sense I've gotten ore the past few weeks of doing drafts. People think Ryan is the next Stafford. Just look at his weapons! They play in a dome! They have to keep up! Ryan could be elite! The main problems I have with are; Ryan is not as good as Stafford, the Atl running game is much better and the D is much better. There simply will not be a need for Ryan to pass the ball as much as Stafford did last year and thus he will not come close to approaching that kind of season. On top of that what made Stafford the value he was was that you could draft him in round 6, not round 2.

I would draft Ryan no earlier than round 6.

I hope my iPad didn't completely butcher this post....

I wanted to add some FO comparison to Stafford v. Ryan.

Stafford played 3 games in 2010 with a DVOA of 3%. He jumped to 15% DVOA in 2011, and had a crazy 663 attempts. Ryan has increased his DVOA gradually, from 12% in 2009, to 18% the last two years. Arguably Ryan has been as good as Stafford on a per play basis. Although the DVOA takes into account more favorable real-life stats (minimizing INTs and fumbles) as compared to straight fantasy (greater yards and TDs).

Over the last two years, Ryan has: 57 total TDs, 21 INTs, on 1137 attempts... 19.9 passes per TD, 54 passes per INT. Yards per attempt at 6.4 in 2009 and 7.5 in 2010.

Last season, Stafford had 41 TDs, 15 INTs, on 663 attempts. ... 16 passes per TD, 44 passes per INT. Yards per attempt at 7.6 in 2010.

Ryan throws fewer TDs, fewer INTs, and roughly as many yards per pass as Stafford. The most significant difference is the number of passes per year. It's very possible that the Falcons still pass more than the last few seasons (590ish attempts) , but that Stafford still has more (600+ attempts). With Julio, Ryan has throw for about as much yardage per pass.

This seems most likely:

Stafford - 620 attempts, 4,700 yards, 38-39 TDs

Ryan - 590 attempts, 4,400, 30-32 TDs.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He went 3.02 last night so you can forget finding him at the top of the 4th...he's flying right now, maybe mid to late 2nd if you want him, I wanted him. :(

 

[David Yudkin]

I am not arguing one way or the other on Stafford vs. Ryan, but couldn't a case be made that: Jones + White will put up better numbers than Megatron + Burleson or Young? I would consider Gonzalez and Pettigrew close to a wash. DET likely has an advantage at WR3, but things don't jump out at me as being appreciatively better for Stafford than Ryan.

 

[The Jerk]

what you want to be able to do is get Rodgers/Brady/Brees etc type numbers at a discount and combine that with the talent you take in rounds 1 and 2 where those other guys are going....the combination allows you to distance yourself from the owners of the other 3......cause theoretically, your 1st and 2nd at the other positions should outscore the guys they take at those positions in rounds 3 or 4 where you take Ryan....

If only it was that easy...Ideally, I want every one of my picks to give me first round performance at nth round price, but it usually doesn't work that way. I was a fortunate Stafford owner last year, and in this case, he did give first or high second round performance at 6th round price or whatever. But it usually isn't that lopsided. Similarly, I was a Foster owner in 2010. Those truly are the picks that make a championship. But it usually doesn't work that way.I'm thrilled if I get 80-85% of Rodgers/Brady/Brees numbers in the 5th round, or 90% in the 3rd-4th round. And the key point for me is that sometimes you get what you pay for. All the picks can't be bargains. I've had it work out that in trying to wait for bargains, I've ended up with nearly the worst starter at a position. And even when the player outperforms ADP, it's still putting me in a hole against nearly every other owner.What you say has merit. It's just unrealistic to get Rodgers/Brady/Brees numbers out of any 3rd round or later selection. It can happen, but getting to 85% or so of those numbers can be enough if, as you say, you did well with your earlier picks. Now as to when to draft Ryan, depending on league scoring and tendencies, I'd easily be willing to go as early as late 3rd. I project him sixth off the board, but he's fifth on my list, jumping over Newton mostly due to league scoring but also due to a longer track record/higher floor in my opinion.But I'm guessing he's long gone in my league due to 6 pt TDs, distance bonuses, etc. that raise the value of QBs, as well as some owners overvaluing QBs.

 

[Lambert]

I'm not suggesting the hype doesn't exist or anything -- my two drafts may have been the exception rather than the rule, but FWIW, in two drafts I was in earlier this week -- both 12 teamers, PPR, 1 QB (4pts per passing TD) -- Ryan went at 5.03 in one draft and 6.02 in the other.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I hate trying to predict the round a player will be drafted because every league is so variable when it comes to scoring and the tendencies of owners. I think it is much better to state where a particular player ranks relative to other players at the same position and let everyone decide what that means for their particular draft.Right now I have Ryan as the #10 ranked QB on my board but I can see the arguments to put him all the way up to #5. So I guess the answer is that I could see drafting him as the 5th QB off the board. In my league that makes him a mid 2nd round pick but, of course, YMMV.

Exactly my thoughts. I have Ryan as my 14th overall player in my 2qb league.

 

[12punch]

I'm not suggesting the hype doesn't exist or anything -- my two drafts may have been the exception rather than the rule, but FWIW, in two drafts I was in earlier this week -- both 12 teamers, PPR, 1 QB (4pts per passing TD) -- Ryan went at 5.03 in one draft and 6.02 in the other.

yahoo?I think yahoo still has him qb14

 

[need2know]

very surprised to get him in round 5 of one of my 12 team redraft money leagues last night. I feel that is where he should go, but really thought someone would have nabbed him earlier on the hype...

 

[fantasy stud]

I almost took him at 36 or 37 last night. Just couldn't do it that early. Really thought the yahoos I drafted with would let him get back to me at 60. Almost happened. He went at 58.