I believe we can go ahead and coin the phrase Staffor-syndrome in fantasy football now. That seems to be what we are seeing in regards to Ryan. Everyone is looking back at the eruption Stafford had last year and are parlaying what they see as similarities to Ryan and thus, his meteoric rise in ADP.
The similarities most see are, and I'll rank these in order of perception;
1. Weapons. Really this syndrome begins with the ridiculous hype for J. Jones. I believe people view Jones raw ability as on par with Calvin, it's not, and thus feel he can have a similar impact to Ryan as Calvin did to Stafford. On top of that you have R. White, Gonzo and a good pair of RBs. People look at this wealth of weapons at Ryan's disposal and think, how can he not have a monster season?
2. Confidence in Ryan's ability. Many have felt Ryan was a fringe elite QB for years IMO. He had a great rookie year and has really never had a bad year to derail the confidence he built from then. Many have felt his fantasy success has been held back by the Atl commitment to running the ball. Most feel that will change this season and Atl will open up the play book to far more passing. Ryan's opportunity is perceived to be rising, a lot.
3. Growth in passing for the NFL. We are coming off a historical season in ten NFL from a passing stand point. Given Ryan's weapons and opportunity, surely he too will take advantage of this new passing epidemic going on in the NFL.
4. Division and dome. There is a feeling that Atl needs to keep up with the Jones'. In this case the Jones' are the Saints and Panthers. In order to win in the NFC South and in the NFC in general I think people feel you have to score, a lot. Seeing that Atl has the weapons to do so, why shouldn't they?
Personally I'm not really on board with all of this for various reasons. It is however the sense I've gotten ore the past few weeks of doing drafts. People think Ryan is the next Stafford. Just look at his weapons! They play in a dome! They have to keep up! Ryan could be elite! The main problems I have with are; Ryan is not as good as Stafford, the Atl running game is much better and the D is much better. There simply will not be a need for Ryan to pass the ball as much as Stafford did last year and thus he will not come close to approaching that kind of season. On top of that what made Stafford the value he was was that you could draft him in round 6, not round 2.
I would draft Ryan no earlier than round 6.
I hope my iPad didn't completely butcher this post....
I wanted to add some FO comparison to Stafford v. Ryan.
Stafford played 3 games in 2010 with a DVOA of 3%. He jumped to 15% DVOA in 2011, and had a crazy 663 attempts. Ryan has increased his DVOA gradually, from 12% in 2009, to 18% the last two years. Arguably Ryan has been as good as Stafford on a per play basis. Although the DVOA takes into account more favorable real-life stats (minimizing INTs and fumbles) as compared to straight fantasy (greater yards and TDs).
Over the last two years, Ryan has: 57 total TDs, 21 INTs, on 1137 attempts... 19.9 passes per TD, 54 passes per INT. Yards per attempt at 6.4 in 2009 and 7.5 in 2010.
Last season, Stafford had 41 TDs, 15 INTs, on 663 attempts. ... 16 passes per TD, 44 passes per INT. Yards per attempt at 7.6 in 2010.
Ryan throws fewer TDs, fewer INTs, and roughly as many yards per pass as Stafford. The most significant difference is the number of passes per year. It's very possible that the Falcons still pass more than the last few seasons (590ish attempts) , but that Stafford still has more (600+ attempts). With Julio, Ryan has thrown for about as much yardage per pass.
This seems most likely:
Stafford - 620 attempts, 4,700 yards, 38-39 TDs
Ryan - 590 attempts, 4,400, 30-32 TDs.
Hoping he stays somewhat healthy.
