Tennessee_ATO said:
John Lee said:
Survey on the main FD page goes through a bunch of questions and then what they are really looking for: Remove Kickers?...And taking the next step in allowing lineup changes all the way up to kickoff of any game (ala DraftKings). Figured that the latter was coming.
I'm curious about why everyone is gung-ho to be allowed to change players at the last minute. For me that will be a huge turn-off if it happens. I like the fact that I have a chance to roll the dice a bit on injury situations. Take this week's Thursday games. I ran Hill out quite a bit knowing he was a risk. It paid off. If everyone could just wait til Sunday morning to decide on him, there is no edge to being prepared. It just seems like it's dumbing it down for the masses.It also strongly favors folks who have wide-open Sundays to worry about last minute roster changes. I'm up to about 15 different rosters now, all of which I develop over time during the week. I have neither the time nor inclination to be worrying about changes to all of them because the weather changes or someone tweaks a hammie in warm ups.
If FD goes that route I'll probably move on.
I wouldn't worry too much about FD switching to a roster-swap format. I've spoken with Nigel (CEO of FanDuel) and he is not the type of person to switch away from a model that works. Personally, I think it's nice to have options...if you like late-swap, you can play on DK; if you don't, FD is your option.
Kickers, on the other hand, are still up in the air. Again, when I spoke with Nigel on the subject, he said that they have kept it thus far because the masses want it (via these surveys) and expect it as part of fantasy football (because their season-long leagues have it).
Overall, I wouldn't expect too many changes from FD...they're killing it and you don't change directions when you're winning the race.
Good. On the academic side, I would be interested to know your take on allowing late changes. Do you think it reduces the edge for the analytic player?
I would argue that there is very little reduction in edge for a sharp player on late-swap sites. Why? Several reasons:
1) The sharp player will always benefit more than the uninformed player when late-breaking news happens because the sharp player will make the necessary changes 100% of the time; the uninformed player will miss that news because he is lazy, working, spending time with family, etc.
2) The sharp player
always rosters his player with the latest start in the flex position to enable a personnel switch, if it becomes necessary after a late-breaking injury, illness, or other calamity that prevents your rostered player from starting. For example, if you had rostered Rueben Randle in your flex position on DK last night and he hypothetically got injured in pregame warmups, you could have pivoted immediately to Beckham without missing a beat...but an 'average' DFS gamer would not have the foresight to be that purposeful when constructing his lineup. Without late-swap, you're both stuck with Rueben. Advantage Footballguy.
3) Another advantage is being able to switch from a player when you are in position to win a GPP, but immediately behind a person with the same player...allowing you to try to win the tournament by taking a different player. In week 16 last year, Al_Smizzle was 4 points behind the bundafever entering Monday Night Football for a $1 million GPP; both guys had rostered Frank Gore for Monday night (it was easy to know based on remaining salary), but Al had Gore in his 'flex' spot, whereas bundafever had Gore in his RB slot. Smizzle decided to pivot away from Gore, knowing that he could not catch bundafever if they both had the same guy; he switched to Michael Crabtree in his flex spot prior to kickoff and the race was on. Smizzle took the in the second half, but Gore eventually got a last-minute garbage time TD to put bundafever ahead for good. ...without late-swap, Al would have never had the chance to win the million, though.
My personal opinion is that I like the ability to have
both late-swap and locked rosters. If I know I can't be beside my computer for late-breaking news, I like playing on FanDuel because my opponent can't capitalize on my inability to switch out players last-minute...but if I can stay 'connected' to the world, DraftKings gives me, the sharper player, an edge because most opponents aren't going to be as plugged in as I will be most of the time. JMO.