Portis has put up huge numbers working with:
- Beurlein/Griese/Plummer/Beurlein/Kanell at QB
- Smith/McCaffery/Lelie at WR in 2003 (best season of the lot was 74-843-3)
To review Portis' last two seasons:
106.8 rushing yards per game, 23.4 receiving yards per game, 5.5 ypc, 1.07 TD per game = 19.42 fantasy points per game.
a) Denver is a system, and has proven to persevere despite it's personnel. Thus, I don't see your argument as a pro for Portis...I actually see it as a con.
To review Edge's last two seasons:83.2 yards rushing per game, 23.9 reciving yards per game, 3.8 ypc, 0.52 TD per game = 13.82 fantasy points per game.
Very skewed numbers...you're comparing apples to oranges here:
a) Portis is in a new system which makes his past years' stats nearly irrelevant when trying to determine future stats.
b) Edges numbers were greatly effected by the fact that they guy was coming off major injury and not playing 100%
Now Portis is going to Washington with a legitimate Top 5 WR candidate in Coles and potentially a Top 10 QB in Brunell--a definite upgrade from the situation in Denver last year.
a) Coles was a potential top 5 WR based on past numbers...he shouldn't even be close to that ranking on my spreadsheet(but I'm getting ahead of myself, my WR thread will come out next week)
b) Brunnell a potential top 10?? Based on what? The fact that he's old and his skill have completely diminished...or is this based on the fact that he's learning a new system and new personnel. A new system by the way, that nobody really knows much about. If that's your projection fine, I'd like to see some analytical support to back that up though...if you don't mind.
Portis has outproduced Edge by 40% over the past two years, yet PORTIS is the risk in this debate?
a) For previously stated reasons, this statement is completely insignificant.
a) Denver is a system, and has proven to persevere despite it's personnel. Thus, I don't see your argument as a pro for Portis...I actually see it as a con.
If you want to go there . . . Joe Gibbs has a system. His lifetime record is 140-65 with 3 Super Bowl championship rings. That system produced a 1,347 yard, 24 rushing TD season for John Riggins. And a 1,203 yard, 18 rushing TD season for George Rogers. And a 1,219 yard, 6 TD season for Gerald Riggs. (Those guys had other solid seasons as well, so "the system" seems to work pretty well.)
b) Edge's numbers were greatly effected by the fact that the guy was coming off major injury and not playing 100%.
So he can have major surgery in addition to numerous other injuries and NOT be considered an injury risk, but Portis' 3 games with an ankle sprain and a bruised chest make him more of a major injury risk?
a) Coles was a potential top 5 WR based on past numbers...he shouldn't even be close to that ranking on my spreadsheet(but I'm getting ahead of myself, my WR thread will come out next week).
Coles went from the Jets to the Skins and matched his fantasy scoring from the year before. In BOTH years, he played with unproven QB. Now he gets to play with a veteran . . . and his numbers will go down?
If your implication is that WR production drops dramatically with a new veteran QB . . . here's how some other stud WR did when a new veteran QB was brought in.
Moulds with Bledsoe added: 100-1287-10
Keyshawn with Vinny added: 83-1131-10
Michael Jackson with Vinny added: 76-1201-14
Tim Brown with Gannon added: 90-1344-6
Moulds with Flutie added: 67-1368-9
Conway with Flutie added: 71-1125-6
Muhammad with Beurlein added: 96-1253-8
Burress with Maddox added: 78-1325-7
Ward with Maddox added: 112-1329-12
Westbrook with Brad Johnson added: 65-1191-9
Albert Connell with Brad Johnson added: 62-1132-7
Keyshawn with Brad Johnson added: 106-1266-1
Moss with Cunningham added: 69-1313-17
Moss with George added: 80-1413-11
Carter with George added: 90-1241-13
Tim Brown with George added: 104-1408-5
Terrance Matthis with Geroge added: 111-1342-11
Rison with Grbac added: 72-1092-7
Carter with Moon added: 122-1256-7
Jake Reed with Moon added: 85-1175-4
Galloway with Moon added: 72-1049-12
Toomer with Collins added: 79-1183-6
Herman Moore with Mitchell added: 72-1173-11
Horn with Blake added: 94-1332-8
Those numbers look pretty solid to me, but as I said, I was not sure if teams changing QB were the issue here.
b) Brunnell a potential top 10?? Based on what? The fact that he's old and his skill have completely diminished...or is this based on the fact that he's learning a new system and new personnel. A new system by the way, that nobody really knows much about. If that's your projection fine, I'd like to see some analytical support to back that up though...if you don't mind.
All we have to go on is what Gibbs' teams did in the past. Quoting from my Player Spotlight piece that will be up this week . . .
Here are the passing TD numbers for the #1 QB when Gibbs coached in Washington: 19, 23, 29, 24, 13 combined, 22, 23 combined, 33 combined, 22, 16, and 28. (I can’t recall if the multi-QB years were by choice or out of necessity.) That averages out to 23 TD a year.The Skins QB in that era included Joe Theismann, Jay Schroeder, Doug Williams, and Mark Rypien, and I can’t see how Brunell is not comparable to the players in that group. And of the 8 years with one main QB, the starter surpassed 3,500 yards passing in 7 of them.
In the latter part of Gibbs' tenure, the Redskins evolved into a pass happy team, producing three 1,000-yard WR in 1989 (Gary Clark 1,229; Art Monk 1,186; and Ricky Sanders 1,138).
Based on my projection for this year (300 completions in 500 attempts, 3,500 passing yards, 24 TD, 15 INT, 200 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD, 265 fantasy points), Brunell would have finished in a tie for the #8 spot in fantasy QB scoring in 2003. I wouldn’t draft him as my QB1, but he may very well rank as one by the end of the year.
You certainly have the right to disagree with my assessment. But some pretty mediocre QB thrived in Washington under Gibbs before.
Portis has outproduced Edge by 40% over the past two years, yet PORTIS is the risk in this debate?
a) For previously stated reasons, this statement is completely insignificant.
I think it's VERY significant, you don't. We'll have to wait until January to see if it made any difference or not.
I forgot to add that in addition to producing some very solid RB totals, Gibbs also had several solid WR seasons as well (above and beyond the year with three 1,000 yard WR):
Charlie Brown 78-1225-8
Art Monk 106-1372-7, 91-1226-2, 73-1068-4
Gary Clark 74-1265-7, 56-1066-7, 75-1112-8 , 70-1340-10
Rickey Sanders 73-1148-12, 71-1049-8
And yes, I am fully aware that there is nothing at all that says what worked 15 years ago will work in the current NFL. But I happen to think that Gibbs is a coaching mastermind and will come up with a scheme to get the most out of his players.