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FDuel Week 11 (2 Viewers)

JShare87 said:
hiitslarry said:
When I woke up this morning i was gonna switch aj green for decker and martellus Bennett for gronk since the prices match up to make the change, but whenever I make a change Sunday morning it always backfires so I left my lineup alone. Now I'm sitting on 209 Points for $500 on the Sunday bomb instead of enjoying winning 25k...sigh :(
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Poor guy is only going to win 500, I feel for you. I do this every week too. I say I was going to do this or do that and would have had this. It would be the same thing if you would have switched and it ended up hurting you. You would be telling us how you switched last minute. I know you are just coming in to vent we all do it. Enjoy the 500 and don't think too much about it. I know it's tough, but congrats on the 500.00.
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I actually enjoyed his post, you may have not. Not that I enjoyed him losing out, but I feel for the guy as I 'hate' my last minute changes as well yet I still do them. I'd be kicking myself all day about not making those moves in hindsight.

Your correct in that he should be thrilled to win $500, but to some that isn't a HUGE payday as you would think, maybe he's one of those guys, who knows. Barely losing 25k though sucks.

 
Best scores of my life, and showing plus $10 at the moment :P

Lineups (including thurs as well) went: 185, 147, 124, 107 ... with 2 138's with beast or pt cruiser. Maybe I can win some lunch money.

 
I would have thought 45 lineups ranging from 148-175 would have made for a big week. Not this week. Looks like about a wash. Tough week, with lots of H2Hs with 4-5 common players with my opponent. Almost all tourney teams either just missed the money or barely got in.

 
JShare87 said:
hiitslarry said:
When I woke up this morning i was gonna switch aj green for decker and martellus Bennett for gronk since the prices match up to make the change, but whenever I make a change Sunday morning it always backfires so I left my lineup alone. Now I'm sitting on 209 Points for $500 on the Sunday bomb instead of enjoying winning 25k...sigh :(
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Poor guy is only going to win 500, I feel for you. I do this every week too. I say I was going to do this or do that and would have had this. It would be the same thing if you would have switched and it ended up hurting you. You would be telling us how you switched last minute. I know you are just coming in to vent we all do it. Enjoy the 500 and don't think too much about it. I know it's tough, but congrats on the 500.00.
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I am glad with the winnings but I'm sure anyone would be kicking themselves at first if they knew if they made a change and that $500 in winnings would have been 25k instead haha.

 
My best week for scoring all year and I lost every contest. One tourney I had 176, last week it would have been top ten, this week, no cash. Averaged 140 in 50/50's, lost them. I didn't have much riding this week but it was all I had left. I'll look around for a freeroll or two, but otherwise looks like I am out.

 
Dirtybird said:
JShare87 said:
hiitslarry said:
When I woke up this morning i was gonna switch aj green for decker and martellus Bennett for gronk since the prices match up to make the change, but whenever I make a change Sunday morning it always backfires so I left my lineup alone. Now I'm sitting on 209 Points for $500 on the Sunday bomb instead of enjoying winning 25k...sigh :(
Click to expand...
Poor guy is only going to win 500, I feel for you. I do this every week too. I say I was going to do this or do that and would have had this. It would be the same thing if you would have switched and it ended up hurting you. You would be telling us how you switched last minute. I know you are just coming in to vent we all do it. Enjoy the 500 and don't think too much about it. I know it's tough, but congrats on the 500.00.
Click to expand...
I actually enjoyed his post, you may have not. Not that I enjoyed him losing out, but I feel for the guy as I 'hate' my last minute changes as well yet I still do them. I'd be kicking myself all day about not making those moves in hindsight.

Your correct in that he should be thrilled to win $500, but to some that isn't a HUGE payday as you would think, maybe he's one of those guys, who knows. Barely losing 25k though sucks.
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I wasn't trying to come across that I didn't enjoy his post. I was just trying to let him know that everyone does and don't beat himself up over the decision. I came in 2 weeks ago and did the same thing posted I should've did this. I do this every week and it drives me nuts. I'm happy that he won 500 and I too enjoy reading posts like that.
 
This sucks. As it stands right now I'm in the money in 80% of my contests, for a 52% profit. But I have no one else going in MNF and I'm sitting close enough to the line in all these contests that I know I'm going to get knocked out of the money in a ton of them tonight.

 
I had 190-191 in 50% of my lineups this week, all of which had McCown, Peterson, Jeffery and J. Gordon. Problem is I could only get into about half of the number of leagues I usually get into because of the holidays. Figures. I've never scored that high.

And I hate Eric Decker. Had him for the last few weeks (due to price) hoping for half the production he had this week. Of course he goes nuclear when I leave him out of my lineups.

 
I ended up with 205.9 this week in the $5 Sun NFL Rush, good for 16th place currently but likely to slide a little until the dust settles. Crazy scores this week. Delanie walker hurt me with 1 pt in the TE slot getting hurt early on.

McCown

Peterson

F Jax

AJ Green

Gordon

Jeffery

D Walker

Vinetari

Panthers D

 
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Looking like a pretty good week for me overall, although losing H2Hs when you score 160+ hurts a ton. A few tourney cashes should give me a nice return after losing the last 2 weeks.

 
This was a crazy week.....should have just stayed home and enjoyed the holiday weekend. If you didn't have at least two of the three (Decker, Gordon, and Jeffery), you were not going to do well in the tourniments. I successfully steered clear of all three for the most part....lucky me....haha.

 
Jayrok said:
And I hate Eric Decker. Had him for the last few weeks (due to price) hoping for half the production he had this week. Of course he goes nuclear when I leave him out of my lineups.
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I hear that. Been playing him for weeks now over a nice percentage of lineups. Not a single lineup with him this week.

 
Bobcat10 said:
Jayrok said:
And I hate Eric Decker. Had him for the last few weeks (due to price) hoping for half the production he had this week. Of course he goes nuclear when I leave him out of my lineups.
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I hear that. Been playing him for weeks now over a nice percentage of lineups. Not a single lineup with him this week.
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Me too. :bag:

 
christ what a week. my top lineup was actually a thurs-mon 210.4. weird I didn't use any thursday players in this lineup. I rarely play tourneys, do them elsewhere, and play H2H and 50/50 up to $100 and some double ups.

mccown

AP

spiller

wright

alshon

gordon

gronk

gould

panthers

 
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Just won $1000 on Fantasy Feud. Back in week 2 I came in first in a freeroll. Collected my $2.20 and thought nothing of it. Then last week I get an email saying that myself and the ten other freeroll winners will play each other with the top 2 playing the following week for $1000. I came in 2nd last week and just crushed the other guy 174.54-115.16. Yay me!

 
arctic_panzer_wolf said:
Just won $1000 on Fantasy Feud. Back in week 2 I came in first in a freeroll. Collected my $2.20 and thought nothing of it. Then last week I get an email saying that myself and the ten other freeroll winners will play each other with the top 2 playing the following week for $1000. I came in 2nd last week and just crushed the other guy 174.54-115.16. Yay me!
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nice work congrats

 
After wagering $290 combined on Thursday and Sunday games... I had a grand total return of $1. Yay. Real winner - FanDuel's rake ($29 from me).

I think I over-diversified. I went with 8 different 'groupings' of lineups built around 8 QBs, all of whom produced pretty well. RBs were pretty good, and I had a few Alshon and Gordon lineups (no Decker). Some kicker/defense combos were weak, I guess that was a set back.

Each 'grouping' was built around a stack of doubles, triple, quintuple, several 3-player leagues and 5 player leagues, and $3 worth of tourney entries for each.

Really want to hit $500 for the season after starting with a $100 deposit... I think I need to un-diversify and take some shots.

 
Here's an interesting exercise... go to your history page, download the spreadsheet, and create a sum for column K (entry fees for all games), then multiple it by .1 to figure your total contribution to the fanduel coffers. Mine is $1730 wagered (since about week 4 when I started with a $100 deposit), for a total rake of $173.

A nice little business model they have here.

 
karmarooster said:
Here's an interesting exercise... go to your history page, download the spreadsheet, and create a sum for column K (entry fees for all games), then multiple it by .1 to figure your total contribution to the fanduel coffers. Mine is $1730 wagered (since about week 4 when I started with a $100 deposit), for a total rake of $173.

A nice little business model they have here.
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I think they have actually gone overboard on their rake (the whole dfs industry not just fanduel). The weak players are going to lose out on their money fairly quickly with the current rake levels. Once they do so it will be questionable how many come back. Once they stop coming and it's shark vs shark none are going to continue to play since it is so hard to gain such an edge to beat rake consistently. I know I won't play. I think you can already see the effect the last few weeks with the competition getting tougher as people don't rebuy back in. There will be a lot of people who buyin for the first time again next year as it is still a new industry but I will be interested to see how many come back after losing this year.

 
I've been entering 50/50s and double-ups almost exclusively. The first several weeks of this season were great, 77% win percentage. I knew much of that was luck-driven, but also hoped I had a sustainable strategy to continue making money even if my luck went south. And south it has gone - last 4 weeks, I've only won 30%. Not sure if I'm going to keep rolling with this or just bag it at this point.

 
Yeah I'll agree with the above to a certain extent. I don't think the time between now and week 17 is going to be a good time to cash in and finish strong. Instead, I suspect next year in weeks 1 through 8, a few of the major daily sites will probably see major double-digit increases in new users. Year to year they're probably growing exponentially as they capitalize on fantasy being totally mainstream now.

 
dawrecker said:
karmarooster said:
Here's an interesting exercise... go to your history page, download the spreadsheet, and create a sum for column K (entry fees for all games), then multiple it by .1 to figure your total contribution to the fanduel coffers. Mine is $1730 wagered (since about week 4 when I started with a $100 deposit), for a total rake of $173.

A nice little business model they have here.
Click to expand...
I think they have actually gone overboard on their rake (the whole dfs industry not just fanduel). The weak players are going to lose out on their money fairly quickly with the current rake levels. Once they do so it will be questionable how many come back. Once they stop coming and it's shark vs shark none are going to continue to play since it is so hard to gain such an edge to beat rake consistently. I know I won't play. I think you can already see the effect the last few weeks with the competition getting tougher as people don't rebuy back in. There will be a lot of people who buyin for the first time again next year as it is still a new industry but I will be interested to see how many come back after losing this year.
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I see what you're saying... it's still relatively new and people are shy to enter these sites, at least my friends are, so I think new people will always come in, but Dodds made a good point in last week's podcast. Saying people can't just put in $10 and see what happens because a couple losses and they have $0 left and will quit. You need a decent bankroll to start, but how many people are willing to do that?

After crunching the numbers from last Thursday I wagered $1724 and got back $2450 on FD. Thursday only games I came out on top about $10. My weakest lineup I thought was my 1pm only turned out one of my best. I did have Gordon or Alshon in 99% of my lineups. On another daily site I had Gordon in every lineup and missed winning a crap of money in tourneys with VJax only giving me about 10 pts. Got tacked inside the 5 or 10 on a bomb =P

There looks to be some good matchups to play this week. Baltimore vs. Minnesota, TB going vs. Chicago. Unfortunately I'm flying out to SD on Thurs for the weekend and the Giants/Chargers game so I'm not gonna be able to play much at all daily. Hope some of those winnings go to you guys.

 
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karmarooster said:
Yeah I'll agree with the above to a certain extent. I don't think the time between now and week 17 is going to be a good time to cash in and finish strong. Instead, I suspect next year in weeks 1 through 8, a few of the major daily sites will probably see major double-digit increases in new users. Year to year they're probably growing exponentially as they capitalize on fantasy being totally mainstream now.
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I'll say this, I started FD about week 12 last year and started slow, but I made out well the last couple weeks of the regular season and first weekend of playoffs. Maybe just luck...

 
Josh Gordon priced at $9200 now. 2nd highest for WR.

Looks like he'll be in less lineups moving forward as he's not a ridiculous bargain anymore.

 
A few nuggets:

  • FanDuel has 60% of the market share (from an article in January, 2013... before the DraftKings financing)
  • To give an idea of growth, in 2011, they paid out $10m to users. In 2012, they paid on $50m. That suggests year to year growth of 500%. However, the article on DraftKings also mentions they retain about 75% of users year to year.
  • Football dominates - the FanDuel article mentions that weekly payouts went from $2m per week during football season to $500k per week after. So the above payouts are not all football but site-wide.
  • The article on DraftKings paints the picture of FanDuel and DraftKings as the two main horses in the race as industry leaders, but also mentions DraftStreet.
 
Kinda feeling the burnout. Last week, I had something like 86 different entries, with 3player leagues, 5 player leagues, doubles, triples, tourneys, etc.

This week, I put everything on 15 entries. For Thursday, mostly a fade except for AJ in 2/3rds of the entries: a triple, a double, and a tourney stacked.

For Sunday, a 109 50/50, and some 50 and 25 doubles, each with a small tourney stacked.

Every lineup features Foles, most of them feature some combo of Charles/Forte + Lacy/Rainey. Then lots of Cruz, Edelman, and Wright in the WRs. Mostly on Gronk, with a bit of Graham. And then split between Ravens and Cards, mostly with Prater at K.

I said I wanted to un-diversify and it makes me nervous

 
I put my remaining $9 into longshot tourneys.

I'd also like to once again thank Jordan Reed for allowing me to just miss the money in every single contest by 1 last week. I'm glad you're too cool to take an Advil and go make 3 catches for 30 yards so I wouldn't lose about $600. Thanks guy.

 
maf005 said:
anyone know of a way to find how well the Titans have defended slot receivers this year?
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I've been having this same question. I was hoping to try and find some way to put a sheet together (or really hoping someone had one) that had depth charts and def vs. depth chart position. I thought of using pro-football reference along with some generic depth chart site.

If anyone has anything or ideas, this could be an awesome tool. Its great to hear those tidbits from an ESPN analyst or fantasy writer, but it would be better to generate them yourself to study the effect on performance.

 
Mackin said:
maf005 said:
anyone know of a way to find how well the Titans have defended slot receivers this year?
Click to expand...
I've been having this same question. I was hoping to try and find some way to put a sheet together (or really hoping someone had one) that had depth charts and def vs. depth chart position. I thought of using pro-football reference along with some generic depth chart site.

If anyone has anything or ideas, this could be an awesome tool. Its great to hear those tidbits from an ESPN analyst or fantasy writer, but it would be better to generate them yourself to study the effect on performance.
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http://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/mycustomsosdetail.php?pos=wr&team=oti&yr=2013

This won't literally have players labeled as "slot receiver" or whatever, but it will show you how Tennessee (or any other team) has done against individual wide receivers (or any other position) this year (or any other year going back to 2002) in standard scoring (or any other scoring system you've set up in MyFBG).

 
I think you're missing what I was talking about, knowing what a team does against "WR" is generic, like saying Cleveland is mid level against WR this year misses the fact that #1 WRs do nothing against Joe Hayden. So I don't care how "WRs" do against a given defense, I want to know how different receiver types do against a defense.

For example, when I looked at archives of games the week of SD vs. DEN I noticed that #1 receivers had torched SD consistently through this year. I picked Thomas, and he went for 3 TDs, obviously this could be an outlier, but it would be interesting to break down "receiver" further to understand where defenses are vulnerable to get an idea of how an offense might attack it.

Anyone know of information like that existing?

 
The link isn't 'generic against WR' data... it's individual. It requires you to look at each time and identify each slot WR. Sometimes it's easy, sometimes it's not. But the data doesn't look great. Tavon Austin, dexter mccluster, ace sanders... all held without a catch. Eddie Royal - 2-34. Only Jericho Cotchery had a decent game with 4-34-1.

 
Mackin said:
I think you're missing what I was talking about, knowing what a team does against "WR" is generic, like saying Cleveland is mid level against WR this year misses the fact that #1 WRs do nothing against Joe Hayden. So I don't care how "WRs" do against a given defense, I want to know how different receiver types do against a defense.

For example, when I looked at archives of games the week of SD vs. DEN I noticed that #1 receivers had torched SD consistently through this year. I picked Thomas, and he went for 3 TDs, obviously this could be an outlier, but it would be interesting to break down "receiver" further to understand where defenses are vulnerable to get an idea of how an offense might attack it.

Anyone know of information like that existing?
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Yea I doubt any site denotes a WR as the "slot" wr for every play. The best way I've found (besides the link from IE) is to just go through box scores and see how other prominent slots have fared.

I was wondering because Sig said something about the strength of Tennessee's secondary is their two big outside dbs: Verner and McCourty. Which is true. But that being true doesn't mean that slot WRs have done well. Their #3 db does appear to be the soft spot though.

How does JT's injury affect Welker this week? Assuming he plays? Assuming he misses?

 
Mackin said:
I think you're missing what I was talking about, knowing what a team does against "WR" is generic, like saying Cleveland is mid level against WR this year misses the fact that #1 WRs do nothing against Joe Hayden. So I don't care how "WRs" do against a given defense, I want to know how different receiver types do against a defense.
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Did you actually click the link?

 
BigJohn said:
Not much chatter this week. Bad matchups? People starting to fatigue?
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Something just doesn't feel right to me this week. I don't know if it is a down fall from a high last week, but I just can't seem to put my finger on any players this week. I have a $2 tourney that starts tonight to get a feel of who people are liking, but I am not sure if I will put anymore in tonight or just wait until Sunday after I have a few more days to think about it.

 
BigJohn said:
Not much chatter this week. Bad matchups? People starting to fatigue?
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Not sure what I'm doing this weekend. Like McCown as a value QB but he plays the Monday Night game and I'm scared to lock him into my lineups now until I hear for sure Cutler is out. Cutler practiced today.

 
themeanmachine said:
Ramblin Wreck said:
BigJohn said:
Not much chatter this week. Bad matchups? People starting to fatigue?
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Not sure what I'm doing this weekend. Like McCown as a value QB but he plays the Monday Night game and I'm scared to lock him into my lineups now until I hear for sure Cutler is out. Cutler practiced today.
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Schefter just said on Twitter that the Bears have ruled him out for Monday night.
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Nice.

In other news, looks like Ravens and Skins will be both be hosting Sunday games in a snow/ice storm. Maybe Phily-Detroit too.

 
Initial pass at a model for this week:

McCown

Charles

Spiller

Torrey

Keenan

Edelman

Gronkowski

Prater

Patriots

:shrug: Kinda hate this though, so work in progress.

 
Diversified myself a little bit due to the possible weather concerns for Philly.

QBs - Foles, Cam, McCown

RBs - Charles, Forte, Murray, Lacy, Rainey

WRs - AJ, T.Smith, Cruz, Wright, Edelman, Stevie Johnson

TEs - Gronk, Graham

Ks - Prater, Succop, Novak, Crosby

Ds - Ravens, Cards

Anyone you hate on the list?

 
PatsWillWin said:
Initial pass at a model for this week:

McCown

Charles

Spiller

Torrey

Keenan

Edelman

Gronkowski

Prater

Patriots

:shrug: Kinda hate this though, so work in progress.
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There's a little bit of limited upside with having Edelman and Gronk together, but a little more stability. When the team signed Collie this week, that figures to mean Thopmkins and/or Dobson are highly questionable. I'd think with the two, you've got 50-75% of Brady's yardage covered, and a decent shot at 2 TDs one way or another.

I don't understand Spiller, though. Vereen is the same price and much more stable... and on the other side of the field, Bobby Rainey faces a softer run defense than Spiller/Fjax.

 
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