Hakeem Nicks (1 Viewer)

[Kitrick Taylor]

The dynasty value of Hakeem Nicks seems to be going through the roof. He's #2 on the J-Dawg thread and #3 in Go Deep's rankings. To be honest, I just don't think its justified.

First lets talk about his skill set. He's got good, not great speed. (4.51). He's got good, not great hands. (drops a few too many). He does have very good size, and leaping ability. He's also has good body control.

I think his situation in NY is good, not great. Eli is a good NFL QB, but he's not elite.

I just think all that adds up to a good WR, not one that belongs among the elites in the game.

Obviously Nicks put up very good numbers this year. Let's take a closer look at them.

His biggest games this year came against:

Carolina. 4/75/3

Houston 12/130/2

Dallas 9/108/2

Seattle 6/128/1

Those are some dominate numbers no doubt. However, Carolina has the #1 pick because their offense couldn't stay on the field (Giants held the ball for nearly 10 more minutes than Carolina in this one). Houston had a historically bad secondary this year. Dallas had quit on Wade Philips for this matchup, and Seattle was #26 vs the pass this year. Thats accounts for 8 of his 11 TDs on the season, and 42% of his yardage total.

Here's a couple more games of note:

Indy 2/38/1

GB 4/93/1

Nicks had 1 catch for 9 yards while the Colts were attempting to run out the clock. Colts RB Devin Moore fumbles the ball on the 31 yard line and the Giants get the ball back with under 2 minutes to play. Eli Manning throws a 31 yard TD pass on a go route to Nicks on the next play. Peyton Manning then kneels on it 3 times and the Colts win 38-14.

Nicks was largely held in check throughout most of the game vs Green Bay except one play where Charles Woodson fell over, leaving Nicks unguarded as he jogged in for a 36 yard TD.

Here's the rest of his season:

Tennessee 7/56/0

Chicago 8/110/0

Detroit 3/8/0

Dallas 5/82/0

Philly 6/65/0

Minnesota 7/96/0

Philly 6/63/1

Now I'm in no way suggesting Nicks is junk, or his numbers were all luck. I'm also sure that in future season's he'll be able to have big games against inferior teams. I just think the stars kind of aligned for him especially well this year.

He's a very good WR with a bright future ahead of him IMO. I just think its a pretty big mistake to take his numbers from this year and place him with the likes of Calvin, AJ, Fitz or Roddy. He just simply doesn't have that kind of talent. I think he's a classic sell high at this point if someone else in your league values him as a top 2 or 3 dynasty WR.

 

[Bojang0301]

I feel like this one is going to bite you for a long, long time.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I feel like this one is going to bite you for a long, long time.

I've been wrong before, and surely will be wrong again about a player. I just think Nicks' talent is more at the bottom end of the WR1s, not the top end.

 

[Tickle Monster]

Did you get to watch him at all this year? Guy just makes plays. He always seems to be open, and he's amazing after the catch. He's 6'1'', but when you see him on the field, he looks like he's 6'4". And plays like it too.

ETA: Yes, I am a lucky Nicks owner.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Did you get to watch him at all this year? Guy just makes plays. He always seems to be open, and he's amazing after the catch. He's 6'1'', but when you see him on the field, he looks like he's 6'4". And plays like it too.ETA: Yes, I am a lucky Nicks owner.

Nicks was a big part of the reason I won my big $ redraft league this year. I can't say how many games I saw him play this year, but I'd guess 5-6. I agree with you about him playing bigger than 6'1" as well. That's probably his biggest strength. I just don't see him being nearly the player a guy like Andre Johnson is though. That guy plays big, is fast and has unreal ball skills. Thats the point I'm trying to make here.

 

[netnalp]

It's because he had very good stats while missing 3 games this season and it being only his second year.

Eli gives him opportunities because the Giants QB seems to have become a 4,000+ yd passer that should throw 25-35 TDs.

S. Smith and Manningham are good enough to keep the defense from loading up on Nicks, but not so good where Nicks won't get looks.

Nicks isn't the fastest guy but he's got the move to make people miss and he's got the strength to throw DBs off.

Also not shown in the stats, that his fantasy owners will attest to, is he had something like 2-3 TDs called back due to Oline penalties, and Eli missing him was another 2-3. I don't recall offhand him dropping a TD, but it's probably 1-2.

Tied for 12th in total targets (128), 7th in targets per game (9.8), 9th best reception% (61.7) amongst the 20 WRs that had 120+ targets.

100 rec, 1300 yds 15TDs if healthy during the season is well within reach and wouldn't be his ceiling.

 

[treat88]

After Fitz, AJ, and Calvin he seems to be comfortably in the mix for next best to me.

I agree he's not the physical specimen those top 3 are, but I think he's very comparable to Roddy White, who would be the only other guy in the debate for me.

Given Roddy's track record and consistency I'd give him the nod but Nicks would be a close #5 on my list.

 

[TopDawg]

After Fitz, AJ, and Calvin he seems to be comfortably in the mix for next best to me.I agree he's not the physical specimen those top 3 are, but I think he's very comparable to Roddy White, who would be the only other guy in the debate for me.Given Roddy's track record and consistency I'd give him the nod but Nicks would be a close #5 on my list.

BINGO!!

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

The dynasty value of Hakeem Nicks seems to be going through the roof. He's #2 on the J-Dawg thread and #3 in Go Deep's rankings. To be honest, I just don't think its justified.First lets talk about his skill set. He's got good, not great speed. (4.51). He's got good, not great hands. (drops a few too many). He does have very good size, and leaping ability. He's also has good body control. I think his situation in NY is good, not great. Eli is a good NFL QB, but he's not elite. I just think all that adds up to a good WR, not one that belongs among the elites in the game.Obviously Nicks put up very good numbers this year. Let's take a closer look at them.His biggest games this year came against:Carolina. 4/75/3Houston 12/130/2Dallas 9/108/2Seattle 6/128/1Those are some dominate numbers no doubt. However, Carolina has the #1 pick because their offense couldn't stay on the field (Giants held the ball for nearly 10 more minutes than Carolina in this one). Houston had a historically bad secondary this year. Dallas had quit on Wade Philips for this matchup, and Seattle was #26 vs the pass this year. Thats accounts for 8 of his 11 TDs on the season, and 42% of his yardage total. Here's a couple more games of note:Indy 2/38/1GB 4/93/1Nicks had 1 catch for 9 yards while the Colts were attempting to run out the clock. Colts RB Devin Moore fumbles the ball on the 31 yard line and the Giants get the ball back with under 2 minutes to play. Eli Manning throws a 31 yard TD pass on a go route to Nicks on the next play. Peyton Manning then kneels on it 3 times and the Colts win 38-14.Nicks was largely held in check throughout most of the game vs Green Bay except one play where Charles Woodson fell over, leaving Nicks unguarded as he jogged in for a 36 yard TD.Here's the rest of his season:Tennessee 7/56/0Chicago 8/110/0Detroit 3/8/0Dallas 5/82/0Philly 6/65/0Minnesota 7/96/0Philly 6/63/1Now I'm in no way suggesting Nicks is junk, or his numbers were all luck. I'm also sure that in future season's he'll be able to have big games against inferior teams. I just think the stars kind of aligned for him especially well this year.He's a very good WR with a bright future ahead of him IMO. I just think its a pretty big mistake to take his numbers from this year and place him with the likes of Calvin, AJ, Fitz or Roddy. He just simply doesn't have that kind of talent. I think he's a classic sell high at this point if someone else in your league values him as a top 2 or 3 dynasty WR.

So you mention you like Calvin, AJ, Fitz and Roddy above Nicks, that's 4 Wr's. Anyone else or did you create this thread because a couple websites have him at 2 and 3 and you have him at 5? Who else do you like over Nicks in dynasty?

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

I think his situation in NY is good, not great. Eli is a good NFL QB, but he's not elite...

I just think its a pretty big mistake to take his numbers from this year and place him with the likes of Calvin, AJ, Fitz or Roddy...

I think you're selling Eli and Hakeem's "situation in NY" short.Eli's numbers have steadily improved over the course of his career and he's just now entering his prime after having put up back-to-back 4000+ yard seasons. He may not be "elite" as you put it, but he's just as capable of producing a FF WR1 as Stafford, Schaub, Ryan, and ARZ QB are for the guys you listed (if not moreso).

 

[netnalp]

Giants offense was more prolific than some may think:

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Giants had 80 scrimmage plays of 20 or more yards this season (58 passes, 22 runs), tying them with the Philadelphia Eagles for the highest total in the NFL.

Their 14 touchdown passes of 20-plus yards led the league.

*Manning and his brother Peyton were the most protected quarterbacks in the NFL this season. The Giants and Indianapolis Colts each allowed a league-low 16 sacks this season. That was easily the fewest sacks allowed by the Giants since the 16-game season was instituted in 1978.

*The Giants' offense led the NFL by averaging 6.57 yards on first down.

*The Giants led the NFL in takeaways (39) and giveaways (42) , the first NFL team to do so since St. Louis in 2003 (46 takeaways, 39 giveaways).

http://www.giants.com/news/headlines/story...?story_id=44733

I think this isn't as much of a run offense, it's more of a "the run is set up by the pass" offense.

 

[Go deep]

I tried trading Andre Johnson and/or Fitzgerald for Nicks in 3 of my 4 leagues and got rejected in all of them.

 

[I was in the pool]

Nicks has all the tools, has a decade of ball in front of him, plays hurt, is great after the catch and has a great situation. Why would he not be a top 2 or 3 dynasty receiver?

 

[comfortably numb]

I love him and couldn't nab him in any leagues this year.

My only gripe about placing him in the elite tier is him playing in the Meadowlands.

Historically, There have been few (any?) WR's to consistently put up STUD numbers for the Jets or Giants.

Keyshawn finished 5th once, Toomer 6th, SMoss 8th, but now NY WR has strung together 3 or 4 seasons of top 10 seasons.

Maybe Nicks is the most talented and versatile WR NY has seen and he can get it done, but counting on him to go up against the studs of of Calvin, Fitz, etc...history may work against him.

 

[netnalp]

I love him and couldn't nab him in any leagues this year.My only gripe about placing him in the elite tier is him playing in the Meadowlands.Historically, There have been few (any?) WR's to consistently put up STUD numbers for the Jets or Giants.Keyshawn finished 5th once, Toomer 6th, SMoss 8th, but now NY WR has strung together 3 or 4 seasons of top 10 seasons.Maybe Nicks is the most talented and versatile WR NY has seen and he can get it done, but counting on him to go up against the studs of of Calvin, Fitz, etc...history may work against him.

I would argue that for the Giants at least, that Eli & Nicks are the most talented QB/WR combo the team has ever had. Simms never had a WR as talented as Nicks. Eli/Plax, Eli wasn't as good at that time and Nicks seems to be as talented as Plax if not more.*Manning is second in Giants history in attempts (3,332), completions (1,932) and yards (22,646) and is third in touchdown passes (156). Through his first 105 NFL games – 103 starts – Manning has had a remarkably symmetrical career:

Home	   RoadCompletions 	966 	  966Passing Yards  11,322	11,324Touchdown Passes 79 	  77Interceptions	  55	  58Times Sacked	 83		 83Record 	   30-22 	   30-21

Eli is basically as good at home as he is away.Don't worry about the wind, in a different thread I compared all the games any QB has played at the Meadowlands to those played by those same QBs elsewhere and there wasn't a significant difference in play at the Meadowlands.

 

[drfeelgood]

I think his situation in NY is good, not great. Eli is a good NFL QB, but he's not elite.

I think he has a very good situation in NY. Eli doesn't have to be elite for Nicks to have a great season.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Obviously Nicks has his fans around here. I knew that was the case. Its hard selling people on the concept that a young WR that has produced, may not project into an elite talent.

I thought it was pretty clear in my initial post as well that Eli not being an elite QB wasn't the only thing holding Nicks back from being elite. If Eli was as good as his brother, it would certainly help Nicks in putting up more consistently elite numbers though.

There's one guy in this thread that thought 100/1300/15 is well within reach and not his ceiling. 15 TDs has been reached by a WR 27 times in the history of the NFL. Nine of those 27 were by Jerry Rice or Randy Moss. TO did it twice and so did Marvin Harrison. That is just the kind of unrealistic hype I am talking about.

I can buy into an argument for somewhere between 5-12 for him. Personally, I think he's closer to 8-10, not 2-3. I've got him in a tier with Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin and Vincent Jackson. I honestly don't think Nicks is any more or less likely to produce numbers over the next three plus years than any of those guys. I do think he's likely to produce lesser numbers over that same time period than AJ, CJ, Fitz and Roddy.

And I would take Andre Johnson in trade for him in a second.

 

[treat88]

Obviously Nicks has his fans around here. I knew that was the case. Its hard selling people on the concept that a young WR that has produced, may not project into an elite talent.

I thought it was pretty clear in my initial post as well that Eli not being an elite QB wasn't the only thing holding Nicks back from being elite. If Eli was as good as his brother, it would certainly help Nicks in putting up more consistently elite numbers though.

There's one guy in this thread that thought 100/1300/15 is well within reach and not his ceiling. 15 TDs has been reached by a WR 27 times in the history of the NFL. Nine of those 27 were by Jerry Rice or Randy Moss. TO did it twice and so did Marvin Harrison. That is just the kind of unrealistic hype I am talking about.

I can buy into an argument for somewhere between 5-12 for him. Personally, I think he's closer to 8-10, not 2-3. I've got him in a tier with Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin and Vincent Jackson. I honestly don't think Nicks is any more or less likely to produce numbers over the next three plus years than any of those guys. I do think he's likely to produce lesser numbers over that same time period than AJ, CJ, Fitz and Roddy.

And I would take Andre Johnson in trade for him in a second.

Agree totally with the bolded but would include Roddy in that group as well and leave out Wallace....but that's nit picking.All comes down to personal preference.

For me it's the top 3 and then a large second tier that are all debatable/interchangeable depending on scoring rules and individual assessments.

 

[comfortably numb]

I love him and couldn't nab him in any leagues this year.My only gripe about placing him in the elite tier is him playing in the Meadowlands.Historically, There have been few (any?) WR's to consistently put up STUD numbers for the Jets or Giants.Keyshawn finished 5th once, Toomer 6th, SMoss 8th, but now NY WR has strung together 3 or 4 seasons of top 10 seasons.Maybe Nicks is the most talented and versatile WR NY has seen and he can get it done, but counting on him to go up against the studs of of Calvin, Fitz, etc...history may work against him.

I would argue that for the Giants at least, that Eli & Nicks are the most talented QB/WR combo the team has ever had. Simms never had a WR as talented as Nicks. Eli/Plax, Eli wasn't as good at that time and Nicks seems to be as talented as Plax if not more.*Manning is second in Giants history in attempts (3,332), completions (1,932) and yards (22,646) and is third in touchdown passes (156). Through his first 105 NFL games – 103 starts – Manning has had a remarkably symmetrical career:

Home	   RoadCompletions 	966 	  966Passing Yards  11,322	11,324Touchdown Passes 79 	  77Interceptions	  55	  58Times Sacked	 83		 83Record 	   30-22 	   30-21

Eli is basically as good at home as he is away.Don't worry about the wind, in a different thread I compared all the games any QB has played at the Meadowlands to those played by those same QBs elsewhere and there wasn't a significant difference in play at the Meadowlands.

I did remember hearing the statistically there was no difference.This may be the case where I am not letting the facts supersede my opinions.

 

[comfortably numb]

Obviously Nicks has his fans around here. I knew that was the case. Its hard selling people on the concept that a young WR that has produced, may not project into an elite talent.

I thought it was pretty clear in my initial post as well that Eli not being an elite QB wasn't the only thing holding Nicks back from being elite. If Eli was as good as his brother, it would certainly help Nicks in putting up more consistently elite numbers though.

There's one guy in this thread that thought 100/1300/15 is well within reach and not his ceiling. 15 TDs has been reached by a WR 27 times in the history of the NFL. Nine of those 27 were by Jerry Rice or Randy Moss. TO did it twice and so did Marvin Harrison. That is just the kind of unrealistic hype I am talking about.

I can buy into an argument for somewhere between 5-12 for him. Personally, I think he's closer to 8-10, not 2-3. I've got him in a tier with Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin and Vincent Jackson. I honestly don't think Nicks is any more or less likely to produce numbers over the next three plus years than any of those guys. I do think he's likely to produce lesser numbers over that same time period than AJ, CJ, Fitz and Roddy.

And I would take Andre Johnson in trade for him in a second.

My issue with the above statement where Nicks becoming elite would be tampered due to Eli not being elite is the following.Calvin is elite

His QB's not so much

Stafford, Hill, Stanton

Fitz is elite

His Qb's not so much

Leinhart, Skelton, Anderson who ever it will be next year (I will give you Warner when he was there)

Andre is elite

His QB... debatable, but certainly would not consider Schaub an elite QB

Roddy is elite

His QB...Just me, but I do not consider Ryan an elite QB

I do agree with the rest, I would not keep him at 2-3 but rather more in a tier of 5-10, as I agree any of the guys in the batch you threw out are no more/less likely to achieve similar numbers.

I guess my point is, I don't think Eli is holding him back from being a top 2 WR.

I think it is a multitude of factors, probably #1 being the offense doesn't really revolve around him.

 

[JPeso]

I think it's a travesty NOT to have Nicks that high.

 

[TitanicHornet]

I can remember 3-4 drops atleast he had that "should" have resulted in a TD and another where he ran out of bounds on the 3 which should have been another TD. Those extra 4-5 TDs would have made him close to the top if not top WR (I cant check the stats right now my CPU is a being a #####) for the year even with missing 3 games. Dude performs when he on the field. TO has always had a problem with drops but look at what he has done in his career.Yes I own Nicks but the dude is a specimen at WR.

Here's the rest of his season:Tennessee 7/56/0Chicago 8/110/0Detroit 3/8/0Dallas 5/82/0Philly 6/65/0Minnesota 7/96/0Philly 6/63/1

Thats still an average of around 8 per game in my league, non-PPR. Since when was that a bad thing? WRs arent going to catch TDs ever week. Even when he doesnt grab a TD he still gives you a solid number.

 

[DropKick]

Obviously Nicks has his fans around here. I knew that was the case. Its hard selling people on the concept that a young WR that has produced, may not project into an elite talent.

I thought it was pretty clear in my initial post as well that Eli not being an elite QB wasn't the only thing holding Nicks back from being elite. If Eli was as good as his brother, it would certainly help Nicks in putting up more consistently elite numbers though.

There's one guy in this thread that thought 100/1300/15 is well within reach and not his ceiling. 15 TDs has been reached by a WR 27 times in the history of the NFL. Nine of those 27 were by Jerry Rice or Randy Moss. TO did it twice and so did Marvin Harrison. That is just the kind of unrealistic hype I am talking about.

I can buy into an argument for somewhere between 5-12 for him. Personally, I think he's closer to 8-10, not 2-3. I've got him in a tier with Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin and Vincent Jackson. I honestly don't think Nicks is any more or less likely to produce numbers over the next three plus years than any of those guys. I do think he's likely to produce lesser numbers over that same time period than AJ, CJ, Fitz and Roddy.

And I would take Andre Johnson in trade for him in a second.

Steve Smith caught 107 balls with the G-Men. Why I agree that 100/1300/15 isn't a trivial accomplishment, it becomes a bit more realistic if you reduce the TDs to say... 8-10. For most players (Rice, Moss excluded), it is difficult to get into the end-zone consistently.I'm a big Andre fan, but at the start of next season he will be 30 - while Nicks will be 23. That HAS to be a consideration in dynasty.

ETA: And maybe their projections are based on an 18 game season.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Obviously Nicks has his fans around here. I knew that was the case. Its hard selling people on the concept that a young WR that has produced, may not project into an elite talent.

I thought it was pretty clear in my initial post as well that Eli not being an elite QB wasn't the only thing holding Nicks back from being elite. If Eli was as good as his brother, it would certainly help Nicks in putting up more consistently elite numbers though.

There's one guy in this thread that thought 100/1300/15 is well within reach and not his ceiling. 15 TDs has been reached by a WR 27 times in the history of the NFL. Nine of those 27 were by Jerry Rice or Randy Moss. TO did it twice and so did Marvin Harrison. That is just the kind of unrealistic hype I am talking about.

I can buy into an argument for somewhere between 5-12 for him. Personally, I think he's closer to 8-10, not 2-3. I've got him in a tier with Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin and Vincent Jackson. I honestly don't think Nicks is any more or less likely to produce numbers over the next three plus years than any of those guys. I do think he's likely to produce lesser numbers over that same time period than AJ, CJ, Fitz and Roddy.

And I would take Andre Johnson in trade for him in a second.

My issue with the above statement where Nicks becoming elite would be tampered due to Eli not being elite is the following.Calvin is elite

His QB's not so much

Stafford, Hill, Stanton

Fitz is elite

His Qb's not so much

Leinhart, Skelton, Anderson who ever it will be next year (I will give you Warner when he was there)

Andre is elite

His QB... debatable, but certainly would not consider Schaub an elite QB

Roddy is elite

His QB...Just me, but I do not consider Ryan an elite QB

I do agree with the rest, I would not keep him at 2-3 but rather more in a tier of 5-10, as I agree any of the guys in the batch you threw out are no more/less likely to achieve similar numbers.

I guess my point is, I don't think Eli is holding him back from being a top 2 WR.

I think it is a multitude of factors, probably #1 being the offense doesn't really revolve around him.

I'd agree with you here. None of those guys is elite because of their QB. They are elite because of their talents.

I guess I kind of view Nicks like many around here view Reggie Wayne. Not as gifted as the elites, but just very good. Peyton made Wayne an elite option for a while. I don't think Eli is as good as his brother, thus I think its less likely that Nicks will continue to put up elite numbers.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Did you get to watch him at all this year? Guy just makes plays. He always seems to be open, and he's amazing after the catch. He's 6'1'', but when you see him on the field, he looks like he's 6'4". And plays like it too.ETA: Yes, I am a lucky Nicks owner.

I've watched him a ton this year, and what struck me most is that Nicks isn't open all that much. He doesn't get great separation (not like a Desean Jackson), but what he's great at is a) getting enough separation just before the ball arrives a la Cris Carter, b) yards after the catch. So he seems to be missing elite athleticism for getting wide open, but it really doesn't matter. Because he plays like a man possessed once he gets the ball.

 

[JPeso]

The OP suggests consistency with Nicks as a downside, take a peak at the number of single-digit games in PPR scoring:

01. Roddy White - 2

02. Brandon Lloyd - 4

03. Reggie Wayne - 4

04. Dwayne Bowe - 6

05. Greg Jennings - 4

06. Calvin Johnson - 4

07. Andre Johnson - 3

08. Mike Wallace - 5 (3 without Ben, 2 with)

09. Hakeem Nicks - 1

10. Steve Johnson - 5

11. Larry Fitzgerald - 3

12. Santana Moss - 4

13. Miles Austin - 7 (5 without Romo, 2 with)

14. Marques Colston - 3

15. Jeremy Maclin - 4

16. Terrell Owens - 5

17. Mike Williams TB - 4

18. Wes Welker - 6

19. Mario Manningham - 6

20. Percy Harvin - 5

21. Brandon Marshall - 4

22. DeSean Jackson - 6

23. Davone Bess - 4

24. Anquan Boldin - 9 (7 of L9, ouch)

25. Lance Moore - 7

I understand, although don't agree, if you don't like to say someone is not in the top tier due to the fact they aren't out-of-this-world athlete's like Andre or Calvin, but consistency is the last reason for downgrading Nicks. He's the epitome of "must start."

 

[JPeso]

So he seems to be missing elite athleticism for getting wide open, but it really doesn't matter. Because he plays like a man possessed once he gets the ball.

By the same token, Sharrod White and Greg Jennings are also missing that "elite athleticism," but I don't think it hurts either of them too much.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

The OP suggests consistency with Nicks as a downside, take a peak at the number of single-digit games in PPR scoring:

01. Roddy White - 2

02. Brandon Lloyd - 4

03. Reggie Wayne - 4

04. Dwayne Bowe - 6

05. Greg Jennings - 4

06. Calvin Johnson - 4

07. Andre Johnson - 3

08. Mike Wallace - 5 (3 without Ben, 2 with)

09. Hakeem Nicks - 1

10. Steve Johnson - 5

11. Larry Fitzgerald - 3

12. Santana Moss - 4

13. Miles Austin - 7 (5 without Romo, 2 with)

14. Marques Colston - 3

15. Jeremy Maclin - 4

16. Terrell Owens - 5

17. Mike Williams TB - 4

18. Wes Welker - 6

19. Mario Manningham - 6

20. Percy Harvin - 5

21. Brandon Marshall - 4

22. DeSean Jackson - 6

23. Davone Bess - 4

24. Anquan Boldin - 9 (7 of L9, ouch)

25. Lance Moore - 7

I understand, although don't agree, if you don't like to say someone is not in the top tier due to the fact they aren't out-of-this-world athlete's like Andre or Calvin, but consistency is the last reason for downgrading Nicks. He's the epitome of "must start."

I think you misinterpreted what I was attempting to point out. Nicks was consistently good this past year. I'm trying to say I don't think he'll be as good going forward as he was this past year, because his athleticism isn't that of Andre or Calvin. By and large, its just the way the NFL works.

I kind of find the defensiveness regarding Nicks amazing. (Not singling you out JPeso, speaking of the SP in general.)

I think I made some solid points:

he did extremely well vs some highly sketchy competition.

he's not the athlete that AJ, CJ and Fitz are.

his hands are good not great. (one poster even attempted to say if he wouldn't of dropped them he could have had 3 or 4 more TDs!)

he was fortuitous in his games vs GB and INDY.

Yet you'd think I texted the whole SP a picture of my crocs for suggesting he's a tier 2 guy instead of tier 1.

 

[Tau837]

First lets talk about his skill set. He's got good, not great speed. (4.51). He's got good, not great hands. (drops a few too many). He does have very good size, and leaping ability. He's also has good body control.

I disagree on the bolded. Actually, I think the way the term "hands" is used is often a misnomer. Nicks drops too many passes, but that is due to a lack of concentration, not due to his hands. He has amazing hands, in terms of his ability to make difficult catches.

Did you get to watch him at all this year? Guy just makes plays. He always seems to be open, and he's amazing after the catch. He's 6'1'', but when you see him on the field, he looks like he's 6'4". And plays like it too.

Nicks has all the tools, has a decade of ball in front of him, plays hurt, is great after the catch and has a great situation. Why would he not be a top 2 or 3 dynasty receiver?

I can buy into an argument for somewhere between 5-12 for him. Personally, I think he's closer to 8-10, not 2-3. I've got him in a tier with Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin and Vincent Jackson. I honestly don't think Nicks is any more or less likely to produce numbers over the next three plus years than any of those guys. I do think he's likely to produce lesser numbers over that same time period than AJ, CJ, Fitz and Roddy.

And I would take Andre Johnson in trade for him in a second.

I think age is often overemphasized in dynasty, but in this case I think you are not giving it enough consideration. Consider the ages of these players at the start of next season:Bryant - 22

Nicks - 23

Maclin - 23

Desean Jackson - 24

Calvin Johnson - 25

Wallace - 25

Austin - 27

Jennings - 27

Fitzgerald - 28

Vincent Jackson - 28

Roddy White - 29

Andre Johnson - 30

There is no way I would give up Nicks for Andre Johnson straight up. Nor would I give him up for Fitz or White or Vincent Jackson.

 

[Tau837]

I think it's a travesty NOT to have Nicks that high.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Nicks is an elite NFL wr. The Giants are balanced enough that Nicks is not their only weapon which ends up helping him as defenses can't only focus on him. He is extremly difficult for any DB to cover 1 on 1 as he has that unique blend of quickness and power. As others have mentioned when you watch him, he is always open and is a play maker.

Now, I would still rather have AJ and Calvin Johnson and maybe Fitz.... but after that he is right in the discussion. He is an elite talent.

 

[bostonfred]

Nicks may be the most talented of the NYG WRs, but the chance that Manningham and Smith keep his opportunities down is too risky for a top 3 ranking. I believe there was a study done here that said that one good WR would neither improve nor get hurt on average by another good WR, but that having three good WRs on the same team was generally a recipe for disaster for all of their numbers. As long as those three are together, all of their numbers languish. We've certainly seen a difference in Manningham's numbers when he's #3, and it's hard to say how many more targets he earned this year. Nicks is definitely up there on my list, but I'd be cautious with ranking him too high.

 

[cobalt_27]

Nicks may be the most talented of the NYG WRs, but the chance that Manningham and Smith keep his opportunities down is too risky for a top 3 ranking. I believe there was a study done here that said that one good WR would neither improve nor get hurt on average by another good WR, but that having three good WRs on the same team was generally a recipe for disaster for all of their numbers. As long as those three are together, all of their numbers languish. We've certainly seen a difference in Manningham's numbers when he's #3, and it's hard to say how many more targets he earned this year. Nicks is definitely up there on my list, but I'd be cautious with ranking him too high.

Difficulty with these types of studies is getting around the chicken-egg (or circularity) of the argument that a team has 3 good receivers. But, that said, if the system allows for a distribution of passes to be spread evenly across 3 or more receivers, then one has to keep a relatively low ceiling on productivity for all 3.Nicks should be considered top-10 material for quite a few years, given his skill set (and Manning's, too). I don't care about his speed. He reminds me of Michael Irvin in his physicality, a knack for making the tough catch and gaining the YACs. I'll let someone else navigate the fantasy production comparisons between the two, but if memory serves, Irvin did pretty well as a fantasy WR, even if he wasn't 1, 2, or 3 on the list each and every year and had production siphoned away by Emmitt/Moose and Novacek. I'd draft Nicks with confidence.

 

[oukurt]

After Fitz, AJ, and Calvin he seems to be comfortably in the mix for next best to me.I agree he's not the physical specimen those top 3 are, but I think he's very comparable to Roddy White, who would be the only other guy in the debate for me.Given Roddy's track record and consistency I'd give him the nod but Nicks would be a close #5 on my list.

Fitz really? He has dropped out of my top 10. Unless the Cards find a QB he is nothing more than a WR2 for your team. If the Cards draft a QB, he will likely need a couple a few years to develop. Meaning 3 more so so stat years for Fitz. I am not questioning his talent, just his situation.As for Nicks, I loaded up on this guy after seeing him torch secondaries at NC. He just does everthing well and has a nose for the end zone. He is a top 3 fantasy WR for years to come.

 

[faulkfan]

There's one guy in this thread that thought 100/1300/15 is well within reach and not his ceiling. 15 TDs has been reached by a WR 27 times in the history of the NFL. Nine of those 27 were by Jerry Rice or Randy Moss. TO did it twice and so did Marvin Harrison. That is just the kind of unrealistic hype I am talking about.

This being the case and you pointing out the sheer rarity of a WR putting up 15 TDs then it is unlikely that ANY of the WRs playing in 2011 will accomplish this. Therefore let's consider 15 TDs the ceiling. Nicks put up 1052yds and 11TDs in 13 games. You alluded to the fact that he only put up decent numbers against weak defenses so I will point out that the 3 games he missed were 2 versus Washington and 1 against Jacksonville. Those being weak defenses he might have hit the 15 TD mark.Still, all this is speculation (like this entire discussion). My point is that if you are going to suggest that since only a select few WRs have hit the 15 TD mark meaning you don't think Nicks will be able to, I would argue that most likely none of the WRs playing next year will hit 15 TDs so the question again becomes, who do you have above Nicks since we know 15 TDs is out of the question for all of them.For my money I think all the WRs have questions depending on your scoring system. In a TD heavy league (which is my money league) Nicks moves into the top 5 easily. AJ doesn't score enough and Fitzgerald has QB issues that limit his value. Wallace is nice, but if defenses decide to make him their focus I believe he will have trouble keeping up this years pace. Austin was a disappointment and I don't trust Bowe as far as I can throw him. As much as I like Calvin, I wonder how long he can continue to produce with the carousel at QB. Roddy seems like the one guy who has no weaknesses. He has a decent enough complimentary WR in Gonzo to keep some pressure off him, the RB situation is in good shape, and he has a young QB to work with.I guess my conclusion is that Nicks has as good a chance to produce as any of the other WRs outside of Roddy IMHO.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

After Fitz, AJ, and Calvin he seems to be comfortably in the mix for next best to me.

I agree he's not the physical specimen those top 3 are, but I think he's very comparable to Roddy White, who would be the only other guy in the debate for me.

Given Roddy's track record and consistency I'd give him the nod but Nicks would be a close #5 on my list.

Fitz really? He has dropped out of my top 10. Unless the Cards find a QB he is nothing more than a WR2 for your team. If the Cards draft a QB, he will likely need a couple a few years to develop. Meaning 3 more so so stat years for Fitz. I am not questioning his talent, just his situation.As for Nicks, I loaded up on this guy after seeing him torch secondaries at NC. He just does everthing well and has a nose for the end zone. He is a top 3 fantasy WR for years to come.

Really? Fitz had a sub par year fantasy wise for him (still was 11th in my league for WRs), but in a terrible QB year playing all year with an injury he still managed to catch 90 balls for almost 1150 yards and 6 tds. He is still only 27 years old. I can see him being bumped out of top 3, but no way is he worthy of dropping out of the top 10. In dynasty he is way to talented and with his track record, and ageit should make him an easy selection as 1 of the top 5 WRs off the board.

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

I kind of find the defensiveness regarding Nicks amazing. (Not singling you out JPeso, speaking of the SP in general.) I think I made some solid points: he did extremely well vs some highly sketchy competition. he's not the athlete that AJ, CJ and Fitz are. his hands are good not great. (one poster even attempted to say if he wouldn't of dropped them he could have had 3 or 4 more TDs!)he was fortuitous in his games vs GB and INDY. Yet you'd think I texted the whole SP a picture of my crocs for suggesting he's a tier 2 guy instead of tier 1.

Just because people disagree with you doesn't mean they're being "defensive". You made some interesting points, it's food for thought, but all of the posters disagreeing with you are ALSO making good points. I think if the discussion had been about his value in redraft you might have had a lot more support - but in dynasty, that's a far tougher sell given his age and situation.

 

[treat88]

After Fitz, AJ, and Calvin he seems to be comfortably in the mix for next best to me.I agree he's not the physical specimen those top 3 are, but I think he's very comparable to Roddy White, who would be the only other guy in the debate for me.Given Roddy's track record and consistency I'd give him the nod but Nicks would be a close #5 on my list.

Fitz really? He has dropped out of my top 10. Unless the Cards find a QB he is nothing more than a WR2 for your team. If the Cards draft a QB, he will likely need a couple a few years to develop. Meaning 3 more so so stat years for Fitz. I am not questioning his talent, just his situation.As for Nicks, I loaded up on this guy after seeing him torch secondaries at NC. He just does everthing well and has a nose for the end zone. He is a top 3 fantasy WR for years to come.

To each their own, but in dynasty leagues I will always favor talent over situation.Situations change, but talent remains fairly constant until age catches up.I see Fitz as one of the 3 most talented receivers in the game, so yes, I would take him ahead of Nicks regardless of QB situation and I think Nicks is a stud.I understand your argument, I just take a different approach.

 

[DansRams]

I kind of find the defensiveness regarding Nicks amazing. (Not singling you out JPeso, speaking of the SP in general.) I think I made some solid points: he did extremely well vs some highly sketchy competition. he's not the athlete that AJ, CJ and Fitz are. his hands are good not great. (one poster even attempted to say if he wouldn't of dropped them he could have had 3 or 4 more TDs!)he was fortuitous in his games vs GB and INDY. Yet you'd think I texted the whole SP a picture of my crocs for suggesting he's a tier 2 guy instead of tier 1.

Just because people disagree with you doesn't mean they're being "defensive". You made some interesting points, it's food for thought, but all of the posters disagreeing with you are ALSO making good points. I think if the discussion had been about his value in redraft you might have had a lot more support - but in dynasty, that's a far tougher sell given his age and situation.

spot on