Has the cure become worse than the disease? (1 Viewer)

[JAA]

I'm with you.   And I think that's maybe my point a little.   I can't accept a 100% position of we have to shut everything down to save one life.  because as I have mentioned, I believe in almost all cases people who are saying that are doing it from a position where they are minimally impacted if we do.

On the flip side, I also don't believe we should open everything up and those that do, have specific motivations to do so.

I know I'm pissed because my wife lost her job of 32 years because the economy is headed for a depression because I think we have overreacted somewhat to this pandemic.  

I would like you to consider a different view point. 

Your wife lost her job of 32 years because the company she worked for never planned for a 6-week rainy day fund. We are talking 6 weeks here. 

How much savings do we encourage people to have?  What happens when those same people don’t have money to pay their bills?

Now look at corporations. They privatize profits and socialize losses. Where was your wife’s rainy-day fund when the company was making a bunch of money?

IMO people are not being let go because the cure, they are being let go because earnings, the profit paid to shareholders, is not where it is supposed to be. I hope you understand the difference between earnings and Profit aNd Loss. 

Regardless, I’m sorry for your situation, or sucks and no one deserves to do through it.  That said, I would encourage you to focus the animosity toward the company that didn’t value your wife’s contribution enough to plan for her retention when there was a 6-week shortfall of revenue. 

 

[JAA]

I think 80,000 a year is about right on flu isn't it ?

When did we last shut the economy down for that? Didn't those lives matter? 

No - and you know 80k isn’t right.  Please don’t make up stats so easy to find on the internet. 

 

[JAA]

because this repetitive " well we took action so of course the numbers have changes, the guesses have changed" etc

ANY action taken would have been given credit for reducing deaths - ban twinkies and you could say that too was a good factor I guess ??

Look, if you took 1,000 healthy young people without any issues .... and gave them all covid-19 .... how many would die ?  0 ? 1 ??    this virus affects unhealthy people, just like fluy and pnemonia and we never reacted like this at any other time with 80-100,000 dying every year. 

Has the cure become worse?   yes - it has IMO

people EVERY YEAR with compromised immune systems and elderly etc have to be conscious of getting a virus - and we never quarantined healthy people before or shut the economy down. We've never allowed Walmart and Lowes and Home Depot and Amazon etc to literally monoplize people's buying things - and at the same time giving people a few central places to mass congregate while also shutting down all the ma and pa places that would have dispersed people. We've NEVER responded like this

ever

I would encourage you to understand what asymptomatic means. Also, give a read about transmission. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

I would like you to consider a different view point. 

Your wife lost her job of 32 years because the company she worked for never planned for a 6-week rainy day fund. We are talking 6 weeks here. 

...

That said, I would encourage you to focus the animosity toward the company that didn’t value your wife’s contribution enough to plan for her retention when there was a 6-week shortfall of revenue. 

Thanks. I want to make sure I understand you here.

Are you suggesting this is just a 6 week "shortfall" for businesses and then many businesses will flip the revenue switch and be back to normal? 

I think for lots of people, they're seeing this very different from just weathering a little 6 week stretch and then everything is good. 

 

[zftcg]

No - and you know 80k isn’t right.  Please don’t make up stats so easy to find on the internet. 

Yes, but keep in mind that the people who estimate annual flu deaths are the same ones who predicted Hillary would defeat Trump. 

 

[JAA]

Thanks. I want to make sure I understand you here.

Are you suggesting this is just a 6 week "shortfall" for businesses and then many businesses will flip the revenue switch and be back to normal? 

I think for lots of people, they're seeing this very different from just weathering a little 6 week stretch and then everything is good. 

Correct.

I understand business need to project through the year, so technically we aren’t “just talking 6 weeks”.

However the point of my post was really to differentiate between earnings and PNL. This comes down to how companies put together a yearly budget to maximize shareholder benefit vs planning for long term sustained economic growth

 

[timschochet]

I think for lots of people, they're seeing this very different from just weathering a little 6 week stretch and then everything is good. 

It’s going to take years for everything to be good. Maybe many years. 

Gotta ask a question Joe: how long will this forum last for us if there is no fantasy football this year? Or next year? 

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

What happened to the predictions of us having 2 Million deaths?

That was without intervention.

On this, I am noticing the attempt to rewrite history even as it is unfolding in front of us.  With all this, we must always consider the sources.  Where did the 2M deaths begin being reported?

A history

Something @TripItUp and @Stealthycat and the like should read and understand.

I should point out that the WH briefings, by Navarro and Birx I mentioned earlier, referred to 1.5-2 million cases, not deaths.

However Trump himself just repeated the 2 million "deaths" claim yesterday. - And actually Trump says specifically 2.2 million.

 

[JAA]

Seriously without the measures you have to believe that we would be much greater than 100,000 deaths in 6 weeks.  The flu season kills maybe 55k in 6 months...

Flu season is like 9-10 months according to the Cdc

 

[Challenge Everything]

I would like you to consider a different view point. 

Your wife lost her job of 32 years because the company she worked for never planned for a 6-week rainy day fund. We are talking 6 weeks here. 

How much savings do we encourage people to have?  What happens when those same people don’t have money to pay their bills?

Now look at corporations. They privatize profits and socialize losses. Where was your wife’s rainy-day fund when the company was making a bunch of money?

IMO people are not being let go because the cure, they are being let go because earnings, the profit paid to shareholders, is not where it is supposed to be. I hope you understand the difference between earnings and Profit aNd Loss. 

Regardless, I’m sorry for your situation, or sucks and no one deserves to do through it.  That said, I would encourage you to focus the animosity toward the company that didn’t value your wife’s contribution enough to plan for her retention when there was a 6-week shortfall of revenue. 

Well said, thank you for addressing some things I had not.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Director of Harvard Global Health Institute: "I think most Americans need to know the reason we are shutdown, our economy is shutdown is because we've had inadequate testing."

 

[Challenge Everything]

Director of Harvard Global Health Institute: "I think most Americans need to know the reason we are shutdown, our economy is shutdown is because we've had inadequate testing."

What do people have against massive testing? I don't get it. We have a solution to the problem yet there is zero urgency to enact that solution. In the coming months people will complain about the economy, deaths, and so on, and we still won't have enough testing. It boggles my mind.

if historians are accurate, this will go down in history as a major over reaction and a net negative for lives saved. If historians are accurate. 

Then, we have attitudes like this. I would hope these thoughts are trolling, but listening to Radical Right Wing Radio, this is what some believe. Truly sad.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

What do people have against massive testing? I don't get it. We have a solution to the problem yet there is zero urgency to enact that solution. In the coming months people will complain about the economy, deaths, and so on, and we still won't have enough testing. It boggles my mind.

The question for me is about the administration's POV on this. The only thing I can think of for resistance to testing as a strategy and as a need is the concept that it will lead to increased case numbers. - I think the public attitude, Trumpite or non, is a result of lack of leadership and communication.

 

[Sinn Fein]

I'm good with massive testing, if the left is good with admitting that safer at home was dumb when the mortality rate comes back at <0.1%

I don't think you understand how any of this works.

 

[squistion]

if historians are accurate, this will go down in history as a major over reaction and a net negative for lives saved. If historians are accurate. 

Which historians are those? 

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I'm good with massive testing, if the left is good with admitting that safer at home was dumb when the mortality rate comes back at <0.1%

The only reason to stay home is you don't know who has it or where it is. So your point is self-fulfilling.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Correct.

Thanks. We disagree though. 

I do not think it's correct that for a lot of businesses they will just flip the switch and revenue will be back to normal next week after their six week storm passed.

I very much hope you are right though. 

 

[Sinn Fein]

if historians are accurate, this will go down in history as a major over reaction and a net negative for lives saved. If historians are accurate. 

Which historians are we talking about here?

 

[Amused to Death]

I'm good with massive testing, if the left is good with admitting that safer at home was dumb when the mortality rate comes back at <0.1%

Why do you put this on the left when its the WH medical team advocating it? Its only a right-left issue because the perception is the left wants to follow the science while the right just thinks it feels right.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Thanks. I don't agree with you though. 

I do not think it's correct that for a lot of businesses they will just flip the switch and revenue will be back to normal. 

I very much hope you are right though. 

I agree with this.

I think there is a non-negligible chance, it never goes back to 2019-Normal.  I think a lot of behaviors have been altered during the course of this episode, and even when things open back up, people won't necessarily revert to old habits.

But, for the people complaining about how the shut down hurt - they are willfully ignoring the benefits of slowing the spread of the virus.  Had the virus continued to spread unabated - we would have ended with the same economic problems, plus deaths that are magnitudes higher than current deaths.

 

[sho nuff]

I'll be curious how many people have cardiac issues, cancer, etc and die because we told them they weren't urgent enough. We must save these 75k at the expense of a hundred thousand others! 

Do you have any evidence that people with cardiac issues or cancer are being turned away?

if historians are accurate, this will go down in history as a major over reaction and a net negative for lives saved. If historians are accurate. 

What evidence do you have that this is an accurate portrayal?

 

[sho nuff]

I'm good with massive testing, if the left is good with admitting that safer at home was dumb when the mortality rate comes back at <0.1%

Why was it dumb?  We have nearly 60,000 dead in 6 weeks with massive stay at home measures taken.  What do you think it would have been without that?

 

[Challenge Everything]

The question for me is about the administration's POV on this. The only thing I can think of for resistance to testing as a strategy and as a need is the concept that it will lead to increased case numbers. - I think the public attitude, Trumpite or non, is a result of lack of leadership and communication.

"I like the numbers where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship." Cross out the word "ship" and plug in the word "test" and we have Trump saying the quiet things out loud... again. He said this on March 7th. What an imbecile.

 

[Challenge Everything]

Do you have any evidence that people with cardiac issues or cancer are being turned away?

What evidence do you have that this is an accurate portrayal?

These are Radical Right Wing talking points that the cult leaders have put out. The marching orders are given each day and they cycle through talk radio for 24-48 hours getting lambasted on every show... then those talking points magically disappear to make way for the new talking points... however the "facts" linger because no one ever researches previous talking points. The Radical Right Wing media is masterful at brainwashing.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Which historians are we talking about here?

Bill O'Reilly.

 

[moleculo]

Yes, but keep in mind that the people who estimate annual flu deaths are the same ones who predicted Hillary would defeat Trump. 

epidemiologists don't do political polling, so...no.

However, the other side of the coin does seem to be true - many of those who reject polling also reject mathmatical and scientific models in general.

 

[zftcg]

I'm good with massive testing, if the left is good with admitting that safer at home was dumb when the mortality rate comes back at <0.1%

The nature of epidemiology is that you are pretty much always going to be wrong. If your numbers come in below projections, it means you're responsible for the deaths of all the people who didn't take the threat seriously enough. If people listen to you and that drives the numbers lower that what your model had projected, you'll be attacked for overreacting. You can't win.

 

[moleculo]

What do people have against massive testing? I don't get it. We have a solution to the problem yet there is zero urgency to enact that solution. In the coming months people will complain about the economy, deaths, and so on, and we still won't have enough testing. It boggles my mind.

Then, we have attitudes like this. I would hope these thoughts are trolling, but listening to Radical Right Wing Radio, this is what some believe. Truly sad.

honestly, I think it's instinctual.  The Right is determined to be the opposite of anything the Left offers.  If the left says, "we have got to test more", the right instinctually says, "nuh uh! testing is a waste of time and money!"

 

[Slapdash]

Bill O'Reilly.

Killing Coronavirus:  One Day, It Was Like A Miracle, It Disappeared 

 

[zftcg]

epidemiologists don't do political polling, so...no.

Forget testing, the government needs to put all of its resources into creating a sarcasm emoji

 

[moleculo]

believe the science...  but when science comes back and says it's less deadly than the flu then we should not believe the science because its not an over reaction because narrative. 

CFR isn't the only stat that tells us how deadly something is.  It's possible to have a CFR lower than the flu and be deadlier if its transmission is much higher.

 

[moleculo]

Forget testing, the government needs to put all of its resources into creating a sarcasm emoji

lol.

 

[Challenge Everything]

Killing Coronavirus:  One Day, It Was Like A Miracle, It Disappeared 

YOU CAN'T EXPLAIN IT. The virus goes in and the virus goes out. YOU CAN'T EXPLAIN THAT.

 

[Rich Conway]

believe the science...  but when science comes back and says it's less deadly than the flu then we should not believe the science because its not an over reaction because narrative. 

Just for kicks, can you provide a link to the science that says it's less deadly than the flu?

 

[Amused to Death]

believe the science...  but when science comes back and says it's less deadly than the flu then we should not believe the science because its not an over reaction because narrative. 

You didn't answer my question - why do you refer to it as a "left" position regarding the quarantines when its being advocated by the Trump administration's medical advisors?

Also, why are people cheering the states re-opening when they haven't met the criteria of the Trump administration?

ETA: or do you believe the Trump administration is wrong to issue such strict guidelines? Is that a fault of the administration?

 

[Amused to Death]

because we cheer freedom in the USA. The freedom of choice. 

OK, so the Trump administration was wrong to issue the strict guidelines? Why hasn't the president ordered the easing of his own guidelines?

 

[Amused to Death]

because we cheer freedom in the USA. The freedom of choice. 

And again you ducked the issue of calling it a "left" position despite it being the position of the Trump administration. Is it only the left, in your opinion, that wants to follow Trump's guidelines?

 

[The Commish]

believe the science...  but when science comes back and says it's less deadly than the flu then we should not believe the science because its not an over reaction because narrative. 

These aren't mutually exclusive.  I'll point out again when a prediction is "X is going to happen if we do nothing." but we DO something to help mitigate, it doesn't make the prediction of "X happening" wrong.  It's already been established that if we don't continue to work on this issue via vaccines, testing, social distancing etc that it is FAR more deadly than our current version of the flu where we have a vaccine and drugs to help combat the flu.  We see what the flu can do if it's left unchecked (see 1918).  I'm curious where you think we'd be at this moment if we had let everyone carry on their everyday lives without any sort of mitigation?  Do you think we'd be over the 50K dead mark or under that mark?  We are already 3 or 4 times the number of flu deaths for an entire average flu season (many months) in only a 6 week timeframe and its most likely that we have missed a good number of deaths because of improper diagnosis.  We've also probably missed a good number of cases where people got it and recovered.  Context matters even though you don't appear to agree.

 

[The Commish]

once we test everyone for antibodies, sure, I'll be glad to. There are studies from CA and Italy that shows the infection rate is way higher than we originally thought, and thus the mortality rate is way lower than feared. 

You understand that this won't even get you to your claim, right?  (That is, if I am understanding your claim correctly that it's your belief we are overreacting).

 

[Herb]

because we cheer freedom in the USA. The freedom of choice. 

I thought restricting freedom of choice was a cornerstone of your beliefs? Has this changed, or is it only freedom of the choices YOU want to make?

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

To extend the insane line of thinking that "we don't know whether this is serious until historians decide, after it's all over"--

That's like if I get stabbed but have to wait until the end of my life to know whether it was serious.

After all, most of me is still doing okay in the present. Except for the bit that got stabbed.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

if historians are accurate, this will go down in history as a major over reaction and a net negative for lives saved. If historians are accurate. 

Historians not yet born will never get this period in history correct as there is no way that they will ever believe that intelligent, aware, and decent everyday Americans would ever allow for what we move past to the next unbelievable item every day.   No way that they would believe that we would allow for it all to be burned down out of hatred for the moderates and establishment.  Those living through this can't believe it, how would those of the future be able to believe?

 

[L5UT1ger]

Our state met the guidelines to enter into phase 1. Our governor looked to regional data to support extending the stay at home order 15 days. However, he didnt reopen the state based on regions.  It really looks like he picked the result he wanted, then tried to find statistics to justify his choice.

The three states around us are all entering phase 1 or didnt even issue a stay at home order.

Generally speaking, REPs want to reopen, DEMs want to stay at home.

I find myself, politically, on the side of those who I am generally opposed.

Personally, I am watching a business I revived over the last two years being knocked back to square 1 while my wife is bringing home 25% of what she used to bring home under these restrictions.

Its frustrating to watch people whose economics are personally unchanged by this decide for us based on balancing economics with safety.

 

[GoBirds]

Interesting they would take down these doctors video. 
 

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/video-interview-with-dr-dan-erickson-and-dr-artin-massihi-taken-down-from-youtube

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bakersfield.com/news/local-doctors-assertions-on-covid-19-make-waves-on-social-media-attract-national-attention/article_6823a2e2-88a2-11ea-b44b-db257407c86b.amp.html

 

[kface]

Flu season is like 9-10 months according to the Cdc

makes the stats even worse then...

 

[kface]

This.  A largely countrywide lock down and the US will still hit 100k deaths.  Imagine if people didn't stop going to movies, concerts, restaurants, malls etc.

Not hard to see this would have easily spread everywhere and we could have had a million deaths. 

This is certainly what i can't understand.  Clearly the mortality is way greater than the flu...yet you have a small portion saying otherwise. It just doesn't fundamentally make any sense.

 

[Slapdash]

This is certainly what i can't understand.  Clearly the mortality is way greater than the flu...yet you have a small portion saying otherwise. It just doesn't fundamentally make any sense.

Makes perfect sense when you consider the political motivations.

 

[kface]

Makes perfect sense when you consider the political motivations.

I guess but i mean it's basic math...there is going to be twice as many coronavirus deaths as there are flu deaths in the worst season...that's just easy stats.  Hard to avoid...

and that's with extreme restrictions.  It's pretty easy to see that if we just went on as life was normal you would easily 4 to 5 x the deaths

 

[Rich Conway]

So, I keep wondering where the brand new Trump clones are coming from.  Guessing that I-ROK is BladeRunner's new alias after his timeout yesterday, right?

 

[Slapdash]

I guess but i mean it's basic math...there is going to be twice as many coronavirus deaths as there are flu deaths in the worst season...that's just easy stats.  Hard to avoid...

and that's with extreme restrictions.  It's pretty easy to see that if we just went on as life was normal you would easily 4 to 5 x the deaths

I think there is a (false) belief in there too that deaths are being over-attributed to coronavirus.  When, in reality, we know that real time estimates are too low.