How accurate are these ESPN auction values? (1 Viewer)

[tombonneau]

Trying to get a feel for what players will go for in my $200 auction - 12-team standard .5 ppr flex - and was surprised of these ESPN numbers being so high. Does this reflect what people are seeing in drafts? Is there a better resource out there?

Rank 	Player 	Bye 	Pos. Rank 	Auction1 	Arian Foster, HOU 	8 	RB1 	$602 	Ray Rice, BAL 	8 	RB2 	$593 	LeSean McCoy, PHI 	7 	RB3 	$594 	Aaron Rodgers, GB 	10 	QB1 	$555 	Chris Johnson, TEN 	11 	RB4 	$536 	Tom Brady, NE 	9 	QB2 	$527 	Calvin Johnson, DET 	5 	WR1 	$518 	Drew Brees, NO 	6 	QB3 	$499 	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC 	6 	RB5 	$4810 	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI 	10 	WR2 	$4711 	Andre Johnson, HOU 	8 	WR3 	$4512 	Marshawn Lynch, SEA 	11 	RB6 	$4313 	Matthew Stafford, DET 	5 	QB4 	$4214 	Roddy White, ATL 	7 	WR4 	$4115 	Greg Jennings, GB 	10 	WR5 	$4016 	Rob Gronkowski, NE 	9 	TE1 	$3917 	Matt Forte, CHI 	6 	RB7 	$3918 	DeMarco Murray, DAL 	5 	RB8 	$3819 	Mike Wallace, PIT 	4 	WR6 	$3720 	Wes Welker, NE 	9 	WR7 	$3721 	Jimmy Graham, NO 	6 	TE2 	$3622 	Jamaal Charles, KC 	7 	RB9 	$3423 	Cam Newton, CAR 	6 	QB5 	$3324 	Adrian Peterson, MIN 	11 	RB10 	$3225 	Hakeem Nicks, NYG 	11 	WR8 	$3226 	A.J. Green, CIN 	8 	WR9 	$3127 	Eli Manning, NYG 	11 	QB6 	$3028 	Darren McFadden, OAK 	5 	RB11 	$3029 	Victor Cruz, NYG 	11 	WR10 	$2930 	Ryan Mathews, SD 	7 	RB12 	$2931 	Steven Jackson, STL 	9 	RB13 	$2832 	Michael Vick, PHI 	7 	QB7 	$2733 	Julio Jones, ATL 	7 	WR11 	$2534 	Fred Jackson, BUF 	8 	RB14 	$2535 	Brandon Marshall, CHI 	6 	WR12 	$2436 	Trent Richardson, CLE 	10 	RB15 	$2337 	Michael Turner, ATL 	7 	RB16 	$2238 	Frank Gore, SF 	9 	RB17 	$2239 	Jordy Nelson, GB 	10 	WR13 	$2140 	Steve Smith, CAR 	6 	WR14 	$2041 	Dez Bryant, DAL 	5 	WR15 	$1942 	Darren Sproles, NO 	6 	RB18 	$1843 	Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG 	11 	RB19 	$1744 	Willis McGahee, DEN 	7 	RB20 	$1745 	Tony Romo, DAL 	5 	QB8 	$1646 	Marques Colston, NO 	6 	WR16 	$1647 	Brandon Lloyd, NE 	9 	WR17 	$1548 	Miles Austin, DAL 	5 	WR18 	$1449 	Peyton Manning, DEN 	7 	QB9 	$1350 	Reggie Bush, MIA 	7 	RB21 	$13

 

[ImTheScientist]

Looking forward to our draft tomorrow tombonneau

They are not accurate. Every auction is VERY different and unpredictable. When I look at "expert" drafts I laugh because nobody EVER overpays.... IRL tons of people overpay or you get stuck with Peyton Hillis and BJE as your starting RBs.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

They are a bit low.

The top end, particularly at RB, is off by 5-10$

*though as an average it could be right, as some players may not get auctioned for an hour thus suppressing their final average.

 

[tombonneau]

They are a bit low.The top end, particularly at RB, is off by 5-10$*though as an average it could be right, as some players may not get auctioned for an hour thus suppressing their final average.

Hmm interesting you think they are high. In our league the top tier guys in positions last year went in the mid to high $40s and that was at 14 teams.End of day, I think the scientist is right: each auction is different and you just have to go with the flow and if people are overpaying for studs you have to go with it or be stuck with a bunch of mid tier talent.

 

[Ilov80s]

They can't likely all be low or all be high, so I will say some are low, some are high, and some are just right.

 

[dkp993]

go to myfantasyleague.com they have a tracker of auction leagues run through their site that takes the average of what a player is going for. You can even modify it by league size. This at least gives you an idea of what's happening in actual drafts. As each draft is different it's nice to have it average out and give you a ballpark. See link below

http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2012/aav

 

[otis68]

Here's a sample from our auction from a month ago..

LeSean McCoy, Phi RB $74

Arian Foster, Hou RB $69

Ray Rice, Bal RB $65

Calvin Johnson, Det WR $64

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB $60

Chris Johnson, Ten RB $58

Ryan Mathews, SD RB $57

Aaron Rodgers, GB QB $57

Tom Brady, NE QB $53

Andre Johnson, Hou WR $50

Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR $47

Roddy White, Atl WR $44

Drew Brees, NO QB $44

Matthew Stafford, Det QB $44

Cam Newton, Car QB $44

Rob Gronkowski, NE TE $41

Marshawn Lynch, Sea RB $41

Matt Forte, Chi RB $40

 

[Zeff]

FWIW, I think the numbers you're quoting are their averages in 10 team leagues. Obviously in 12 team leagues, the #'s will skew higher. And last time I did a 12-team mock on ESPN, the top guys were listed around $80 average.

 

[Matt Sullivan]

Zeff is right, those numbers are for 10-team ESPN leagues. You'll see the top players go for much more.

FWIW, I think the numbers you're quoting are their averages in 10 team leagues. Obviously in 12 team leagues, the #'s will skew higher. And last time I did a 12-team mock on ESPN, the top guys were listed around $80 average.

 

[bexdawg]

I will concur that the ESPN cheat sheet for auction is a 10-team league and non-ppr. Also, I don't believe it updates based on the Mock Draft data. I have been using it a couple of days now and Doug Martin is still at $6. I just did a Mock Auction via ESPN and his pre-draft valuation was $11.

Some of the owners in my league use this cheat sheet and I am trying to use it for my pre-draft planning to give me a rough idea what players might be overvalued and undervalues by other owners. I would not use this cheat sheet for anything else.

 

[MarcO]

Looking forward to our draft tomorrow tombonneau They are not accurate. Every auction is VERY different and unpredictable. When I look at "expert" drafts I laugh because nobody EVER overpays.... IRL tons of people overpay or you get stuck with Peyton Hillis and BJE as your starting RBs.

Unless you can predict when a guys gets nominated, I just don't see the point of even looking at auction values.