Joseph Addai ADP (1 Viewer)

[Brunell4MVP]

Somebody explain why this guys ADP is 4-5th round. I know he's always hurt, but he is the starting RB for a high powered offense and gets a lot of receptions. His first 2 years, he went for @ 1000 rushing, @350 rec, and 10+ TDs.

Did I mis something? Barring injury, isn't it more of the same this year?

 

[PatsWillWin]

Somebody explain why this guys ADP is 4-5th round. I know he's always hurt, but he is the starting RB for a high powered offense and gets a lot of receptions. His first 2 years, he went for @ 1000 rushing, @350 rec, and 10+ TDs.

Did I mis something? Barring injury, isn't it more of the same this year?

The NFL draft, sounds like.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

You really think Donald Brown will take his job?

I see him more of a guy that steals 3rd downs, like Rhodes did. But I still don't think it's RBBC.

 

[Sylira21]

2006 YPC - 4.8

2007 YPC - 4.1

2008 YPC - 3.5

Add that decline in effectiveness to the drafting of Donald Brown, and you get people nervous about this guy.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Meet Donald Brown.

I've got him ahead of Addai. Addai's high-risk, average reward. Brown's got the much higher upside if Addai doesn't get healthy or if Brown shows something special that demands more touches.

 

[Darker Knight]

Somebody explain why this guys ADP is 4-5th round. I know he's always hurt, but he is the starting RB for a high powered offense and gets a lot of receptions. His first 2 years, he went for @ 1000 rushing, @350 rec, and 10+ TDs. Did I mis something? Barring injury, isn't it more of the same this year?

you are correct barring injury he will put up pretty nice numbers.....Brown will not take his job otherwise

 

[Sylira21]

Also this:

"Colts plan to use some type of committee approach at running back

Paul Kuharsky, of ESPN.com, reports Indianapolis Colts rookie RB Donald Brown looked very good in the team's preseason opener, but it is too early to tell how much action he will pull away from starting RB Joseph Addai. Head coach Jim Caldwell said a two-back system has always been part of what the team has done. 'It's been really effective. ... We anticipate the same thing will happen with the backs we have now,' Caldwell said. He went on to note the game plan will change week to week, as it comes down to who the team's opposition is. 'So our strategy changes on that a bit, but one thing we do know for sure is there will be some kind of rotation,' Caldwell said of his top two backs."

So...this doesn't look like a RBBC? Heaad coach thinks otherwise.

 

[PatsWillWin]

You really think Donald Brown will take his job?

I see him more of a guy that steals 3rd downs, like Rhodes did. But I still don't think it's RBBC.

Caldwell says otherwise. I didn't say I thought he'd take his job - you asked why his ADP was so low, and the reason is Brown.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Also this:"Colts plan to use some type of committee approach at running back Paul Kuharsky, of ESPN.com, reports Indianapolis Colts rookie RB Donald Brown looked very good in the team's preseason opener, but it is too early to tell how much action he will pull away from starting RB Joseph Addai. Head coach Jim Caldwell said a two-back system has always been part of what the team has done. 'It's been really effective. ... We anticipate the same thing will happen with the backs we have now,' Caldwell said. He went on to note the game plan will change week to week, as it comes down to who the team's opposition is. 'So our strategy changes on that a bit, but one thing we do know for sure is there will be some kind of rotation,' Caldwell said of his top two backs."So...this doesn't look like a RBBC? Heaad coach thinks otherwise.

Good info

 

[Darker Knight]

Also this:"Colts plan to use some type of committee approach at running back Paul Kuharsky, of ESPN.com, reports Indianapolis Colts rookie RB Donald Brown looked very good in the team's preseason opener, but it is too early to tell how much action he will pull away from starting RB Joseph Addai. Head coach Jim Caldwell said a two-back system has always been part of what the team has done. 'It's been really effective. ... We anticipate the same thing will happen with the backs we have now,' Caldwell said. He went on to note the game plan will change week to week, as it comes down to who the team's opposition is. 'So our strategy changes on that a bit, but one thing we do know for sure is there will be some kind of rotation,' Caldwell said of his top two backs."So...this doesn't look like a RBBC? Heaad coach thinks otherwise.

a two-back system is not a RBBC system.....

 

[ATC1]

Also this:"Colts plan to use some type of committee approach at running back Paul Kuharsky, of ESPN.com, reports Indianapolis Colts rookie RB Donald Brown looked very good in the team's preseason opener, but it is too early to tell how much action he will pull away from starting RB Joseph Addai. Head coach Jim Caldwell said a two-back system has always been part of what the team has done. 'It's been really effective. ... We anticipate the same thing will happen with the backs we have now,' Caldwell said. He went on to note the game plan will change week to week, as it comes down to who the team's opposition is. 'So our strategy changes on that a bit, but one thing we do know for sure is there will be some kind of rotation,' Caldwell said of his top two backs."So...this doesn't look like a RBBC? Heaad coach thinks otherwise.

a two-back system is not a RBBC system.....

 

[Sylira21]

Also this:"Colts plan to use some type of committee approach at running back Paul Kuharsky, of ESPN.com, reports Indianapolis Colts rookie RB Donald Brown looked very good in the team's preseason opener, but it is too early to tell how much action he will pull away from starting RB Joseph Addai. Head coach Jim Caldwell said a two-back system has always been part of what the team has done. 'It's been really effective. ... We anticipate the same thing will happen with the backs we have now,' Caldwell said. He went on to note the game plan will change week to week, as it comes down to who the team's opposition is. 'So our strategy changes on that a bit, but one thing we do know for sure is there will be some kind of rotation,' Caldwell said of his top two backs."So...this doesn't look like a RBBC? Heaad coach thinks otherwise.

a two-back system is not a RBBC system.....

Ummm...can you clarify what a RBBC is then?

 

[TobiasFunke]

Also this:"Colts plan to use some type of committee approach at running back Paul Kuharsky, of ESPN.com, reports Indianapolis Colts rookie RB Donald Brown looked very good in the team's preseason opener, but it is too early to tell how much action he will pull away from starting RB Joseph Addai. Head coach Jim Caldwell said a two-back system has always been part of what the team has done. 'It's been really effective. ... We anticipate the same thing will happen with the backs we have now,' Caldwell said. He went on to note the game plan will change week to week, as it comes down to who the team's opposition is. 'So our strategy changes on that a bit, but one thing we do know for sure is there will be some kind of rotation,' Caldwell said of his top two backs."So...this doesn't look like a RBBC? Heaad coach thinks otherwise.

a two-back system is not a RBBC system.....

What about a system where both backs are used "extensively," as Caldwell said about what he envisions for Brown and Addai? Is that enough to be considered a RBBC?The writing's on the wall here. Both guys will get a lot of touches unless one of them distinguishes themselves with superior play or one of them gets injured. Addai's the bigger injury risk, and it's my opinion that Brown is the the more likely of the two to distinguish himself.

 

[meatwad1]

Either way, somebody is going to get a great deal...it might not be a bad idea to hedge with Addai in the fourth, and Brown in the seventh.

 

[Crippler]

4th or 5th. More like 6th-7th. Just doing a PPR and he is available in mid 8th. Great value

 

[TobiasFunke]

Either way, somebody is going to get a great deal...it might not be a bad idea to hedge with Addai in the fourth, and Brown in the seventh.

Sure, that would be great ... if one of them was guaranteed to get 250+ carries. The problem is that it's not an either/or situation. If they split carries for the entire season, running behind a line that has been mediocre in run-blocking in recent years, then you just wasted your fourth AND your seventh round picks.

 

[DoctorFantasy]

I was always surprised Addai was a first round pick. I know the Colts thought Addai fit their system and that may help to explain why he went in the first round. I guess I have always questioned Addai's actual talent vs. the system which allowed him to post nice numbers his 1st and 2nd seasons in Indy. I always have thought Addai would just be a mediocre starting back on a weaker NFL team or a team that didn't suit his strengths. I could be wrong, but don't believe Addai was ever a stud in college.

I also have Donald Brown ranked higher on my cheatsheet.

 

[ATC1]

I was always surprised Addai was a first round pick. I know the Colts thought Addai fit their system and that may help to explain why he went in the first round. I guess I have always questioned Addai's actual talent vs. the system which allowed him to post nice numbers his 1st and 2nd seasons in Indy. I always have thought Addai would just be a mediocre starting back on a weaker NFL team or a team that didn't suit his strengths. I could be wrong, but don't believe Addai was ever a stud in college. I also have Donald Brown ranked higher on my cheatsheet.

Addai was a poor mans Reggie Bush. He was lined up all over the field. I think what the Colts liked was his pass blocking ability to go along with his versitility. He was said to be one of the better pass blocking RBs to come out of collage for quite some time.

 

[TheFanatic]

Somebody explain why this guys ADP is 4-5th round. I know he's always hurt, but he is the starting RB for a high powered offense and gets a lot of receptions. His first 2 years, he went for @ 1000 rushing, @350 rec, and 10+ TDs.

Did I mis something? Barring injury, isn't it more of the same this year?

four games missed in 3 years due to injury

 

[mjr]

Am I the only one who thinks the addition of Brown could actually help improve Addai's play?

In 06 Indy rushed over 500 times with Addai getting about 225; less than 50% of the carries for 1000+ and 7 TDs.

Indy rushed roughly 450 times in 07 with Addai getting about 260, which is close to the 60% of carries being projected on him this year with Brown in the mix. With that he put up 1000+ yds and 12 TDs. Obviously, splitting the load hasn't been a problem for Addai's production in the past. Why this argument is now being used against Addai's value in fantasy circles is beyond me.

Granted last year Addai only got about 30% of the carries because of the injuries, but putting up 500+ yards and 5 TDs (+ 2 rec TDs) with these limited touches really isn't THAT bad considering. 60% could have put him on pace to put something close to his 06 production, maybe a little less in yards but a tad better in the TD department.

Injury concern is normal, but I also don't consider a guy forever injury prone who played 15/16 games every year prior to last. His body is young enough to recouperate fully, better than an older back would. And if Brown can do a better job of wearing down defenses better than a 30 year old back like Rhodes, then I think Addai will have a better shot at staying healthy.

I'm not drafting Addai as a number 1. But I have no issues with the risk of plugging him in as my #2.

 

[ScottNorwood]

Somebody explain why this guys ADP is 4-5th round. I know he's always hurt, but he is the starting RB for a high powered offense and gets a lot of receptions. His first 2 years, he went for @ 1000 rushing, @350 rec, and 10+ TDs.

Did I mis something? Barring injury, isn't it more of the same this year?

four games missed in 3 years due to injury

But he also seems to leave a lot of games early due to minor injuries

 

[jobarules]

Addai is ####### horrible

The Colts offensive line isnt the same as it used to be

Donald Brown may be more talented (I really dont know this, I just know Addai is horrible)

The coach has already said there will be some games he gives Brown alot of touches and some where he gives Addai alot of touches depending upon the matchup

Hes always hurt

Honestly I dont know what is to like about him.

 

[jobarules]

Somebody explain why this guys ADP is 4-5th round. I know he's always hurt, but he is the starting RB for a high powered offense and gets a lot of receptions. His first 2 years, he went for @ 1000 rushing, @350 rec, and 10+ TDs.

Did I mis something? Barring injury, isn't it more of the same this year?

four games missed in 3 years due to injury

plus countless other games where he got hurt early in the game and stayed out.

 

[ScottNorwood]

Am I the only one who thinks the addition of Brown could actually help improve Addai's play?

yes

 

[unckeyherb]

Am I the only one who thinks the addition of Brown could actually help improve Addai's play? In 06 Indy rushed over 500 times with Addai getting about 225; less than 50% of the carries for 1000+ and 7 TDs. Indy rushed roughly 450 times in 07 with Addai getting about 260, which is close to the 60% of carries being projected on him this year with Brown in the mix. With that he put up 1000+ yds and 12 TDs. Obviously, splitting the load hasn't been a problem for Addai's production in the past. Why this argument is now being used against Addai's value in fantasy circles is beyond me. Granted last year Addai only got about 30% of the carries because of the injuries, but putting up 500+ yards and 5 TDs (+ 2 rec TDs) with these limited touches really isn't THAT bad considering. 60% could have put him on pace to put something close to his 06 production, maybe a little less in yards but a tad better in the TD department. Injury concern is normal, but I also don't consider a guy forever injury prone who played 15/16 games every year prior to last. His body is young enough to recouperate fully, better than an older back would. And if Brown can do a better job of wearing down defenses better than a 30 year old back like Rhodes, then I think Addai will have a better shot at staying healthy. I'm not drafting Addai as a number 1. But I have no issues with the risk of plugging him in as my #2.

No you are not. I think that last year has to be considered atypical in that his o-line was decimated, he was injured and frankly that offense wasn't clicking for the first half of the season. Manning was coming back from his injury and truly not able to play action as well as he usually does, not to mantion he was forcing the ball to a hobbled Harrison. Addai is one season removed from RB3 overall, putting up 1450 yards, 41 receptions and 15 TDs. No question last year sucked big, floppy, donkeydick. I drafted him his rookie year and I've gotten very good production out of him for 2/3 of his career. I won't be keeping him this year (Slaton Andre) but I hope he drops the way it looks like he is going to. I have no problem with him as my RB2 as I see a very nice bounce back year.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Am I the only one who thinks the addition of Brown could actually help improve Addai's play? In 06 Indy rushed over 500 times with Addai getting about 225; less than 50% of the carries for 1000+ and 7 TDs. Indy rushed roughly 450 times in 07 with Addai getting about 260, which is close to the 60% of carries being projected on him this year with Brown in the mix. With that he put up 1000+ yds and 12 TDs. Obviously, splitting the load hasn't been a problem for Addai's production in the past. Why this argument is now being used against Addai's value in fantasy circles is beyond me. Granted last year Addai only got about 30% of the carries because of the injuries, but putting up 500+ yards and 5 TDs (+ 2 rec TDs) with these limited touches really isn't THAT bad considering. 60% could have put him on pace to put something close to his 06 production, maybe a little less in yards but a tad better in the TD department. Injury concern is normal, but I also don't consider a guy forever injury prone who played 15/16 games every year prior to last. His body is young enough to recouperate fully, better than an older back would. And if Brown can do a better job of wearing down defenses better than a 30 year old back like Rhodes, then I think Addai will have a better shot at staying healthy. I'm not drafting Addai as a number 1. But I have no issues with the risk of plugging him in as my #2.

No you are not. I think that last year has to be considered atypical in that his o-line was decimated, he was injured and frankly that offense wasn't clicking for the first half of the season. Manning was coming back from his injury and truly not able to play action as well as he usually does, not to mantion he was forcing the ball to a hobbled Harrison. Addai is one season removed from RB3 overall, putting up 1450 yards, 41 receptions and 15 TDs. No question last year sucked big, floppy, donkeydick. I drafted him his rookie year and I've gotten very good production out of him for 2/3 of his career. I won't be keeping him this year (Slaton Andre) but I hope he drops the way it looks like he is going to. I have no problem with him as my RB2 as I see a very nice bounce back year.

The Addai defenders in this thread make some great points- thanks for that. I'm not quite as gung-ho on Brown as I was a couple hours ago.However, I don't think you can dismiss last season quite as easily, because he's an RB, and the RB timeline is a compressed one. Sure, there's been some top-tier guys who have faltered and then bounced back, but there are far, far more who put up a couple years of impressive numbers and then fall of the radar. If you take Addai as your RB2, you're gambling that he will be a member of the distinct minority who bounce back. It's a big risk. I think it would be totally different at QB, WR or TE, but the list of early flameout RBs is a very long one.

 

[Darker Knight]

Am I the only one who thinks the addition of Brown could actually help improve Addai's play?

yes

no he is not......

 

[unckeyherb]

Am I the only one who thinks the addition of Brown could actually help improve Addai's play? In 06 Indy rushed over 500 times with Addai getting about 225; less than 50% of the carries for 1000+ and 7 TDs. Indy rushed roughly 450 times in 07 with Addai getting about 260, which is close to the 60% of carries being projected on him this year with Brown in the mix. With that he put up 1000+ yds and 12 TDs. Obviously, splitting the load hasn't been a problem for Addai's production in the past. Why this argument is now being used against Addai's value in fantasy circles is beyond me. Granted last year Addai only got about 30% of the carries because of the injuries, but putting up 500+ yards and 5 TDs (+ 2 rec TDs) with these limited touches really isn't THAT bad considering. 60% could have put him on pace to put something close to his 06 production, maybe a little less in yards but a tad better in the TD department. Injury concern is normal, but I also don't consider a guy forever injury prone who played 15/16 games every year prior to last. His body is young enough to recouperate fully, better than an older back would. And if Brown can do a better job of wearing down defenses better than a 30 year old back like Rhodes, then I think Addai will have a better shot at staying healthy. I'm not drafting Addai as a number 1. But I have no issues with the risk of plugging him in as my #2.

No you are not. I think that last year has to be considered atypical in that his o-line was decimated, he was injured and frankly that offense wasn't clicking for the first half of the season. Manning was coming back from his injury and truly not able to play action as well as he usually does, not to mantion he was forcing the ball to a hobbled Harrison. Addai is one season removed from RB3 overall, putting up 1450 yards, 41 receptions and 15 TDs. No question last year sucked big, floppy, donkeydick. I drafted him his rookie year and I've gotten very good production out of him for 2/3 of his career. I won't be keeping him this year (Slaton Andre) but I hope he drops the way it looks like he is going to. I have no problem with him as my RB2 as I see a very nice bounce back year.

The Addai defenders in this thread make some great points- thanks for that. I'm not quite as gung-ho on Brown as I was a couple hours ago.However, I don't think you can dismiss last season quite as easily, because he's an RB, and the RB timeline is a compressed one. Sure, there's been some top-tier guys who have faltered and then bounced back, but there are far, far more who put up a couple years of impressive numbers and then fall of the radar. If you take Addai as your RB2, you're gambling that he will be a member of the distinct minority who bounce back. It's a big risk. I think it would be totally different at QB, WR or TE, but the list of early flameout RBs is a very long one.

Agreed, he is a risk, but its calculated. I guess my feeling is that he is low risk-high reward. If I can grab him as my third RB in the 5th-6th round (which seems like a real possibility) and he puts up RB2 numbers then I'm getting great value for him, great depth at RB and probably means I took a top tier WR instead of going RB heavy early on.

 

[Abraham]

I like Addai this year. I don't think he's going to end up in the top-10, but I certainly think he'll do better then his ADP.

 

[Dark Matter]

bump.

I was surprised not to see something about him mentioned already. He looked solid last night and has officially jumped up higher on my radar.