This is pretty simple to me. Bell is an extremely high-risk high-reward play, in a game with many intriguing variables. Let's break it down:This week it is a new QB for the Bears, QB #3 on the season, and a guy who was recently picked up of the scrap heap. Many injuries (and an arrest) to the already poor group of WRs (Knox, Hester, Sam Hurd). Terrible offensive line, especially pass protection. Bears packed it in last week vs. Seattle...their season is over. The game this week is on the road in a hostile environment against arguably the most explosive offense in football. Add all this up and you have a very high likelihood that the Bears go down by 0-21 in the 1st quarter and the offense does nothing all day.On the other hand, Bell has looked very good every time he has had an opportunity to play...even going as far back as his first game as a rookie (72 yard run for his first NFL carry). There are no other options at RB for the Bears, so Bell will be a 3 down back this week. He will get the goal line carries. He will get the check downs, which there will be many. This is the biggest rivalry game in the NFL. It's the only football game on Christmas. The Packers defense can be terrible vs the run. The Packers may have home field advantage locked up before this game starts. The Packers Oline is hurt by injuries, and Dline happens to be a strength of the Bears...which makes one think the Bears could possibly keep this game competitive. Add all this up and you have a slight potential that Bell goes off.My personal view is that you only play Bell if your opponent's fantasy team is stacked and you need a hailmary to win. Otherwise take the known quantity and the known points, even if they are low.