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Kansas City at Denver (2 Viewers)

I love the Shark Pool.  Not only are you guys all coaching gurus but you are apparently amateur meteorologists too.  :lmao:

 
Meh, Kubiak would've been hailed as a genius if that kick had gone through. "He knew the wind had died down, the conditions were right, had faith in his kicker, and went for the W!" Sometimes the ballsy decisions don't work out. 

 
bud29 said:
Meh, Kubiak would've been hailed as a genius if that kick had gone through. "He knew the wind had died down, the conditions were right, had faith in his kicker, and went for the W!" Sometimes the ballsy decisions don't work out. 
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Porkchops would have hailed it as the greatest coaching decision ever! 

 
He obviously wasn't going to settle for the tie, so the decision really just comes down to FG or go for it.  That's probably a coin flip.  I'd probably go for it and run my best play to get Sanders on Gaines if at all possible.  But I'm also not the coach that sees my FG kicker every single day.

As a Chiefs fan, I'm exceedingly happy about how it turned out.

 
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2015-16 50+ kicks attempted by McManus, including playoffs:

Made: 50, 50, 51, 52, 52, 54, 55, 56, 57

Missed: 51, 52, 54, 56

 
Chiefs DL kicked ### for a large part of the night, and the amazing part is that it was done almost entirely with backups. Allen Bailey is on IR, Jaye Howard was inactive, and Dontari Poe left with a back spasm - leaving Chris Jones, Kendall Reyes, and Rakeem Nunez-Roches to ball out  :thumbup:

 
J R said:
2015-16 50+ kicks attempted by McManus, including playoffs:

Made: 50, 50, 51, 52, 52, 54, 55, 56, 57

Missed: 51, 52, 54, 56
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What are the NFL stats on 60-64 yard FG's for all time?  If narrowed down to just Mike High, that's even better.  I bet it's lower than anyone thinks.

 
bud29 said:
Chiefs DL kicked ### for a large part of the night, and the amazing part is that it was done almost entirely with backups. Allen Bailey is on IR, Jaye Howard was inactive, and Dontari Poe left with a back spasm - leaving Chris Jones, Kendall Reyes, and Rakeem Nunez-Roches to ball out  :thumbup:
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Throw in Jenkins and you have a rookie and three guys who were on the street at one point this season

 
SayWhat? said:
What are the NFL stats on 60-64 yard FG's for all time?  If narrowed down to just Mike High, that's even better.  I bet it's lower than anyone thinks.
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I don't know how to find that easily, but teamrankings.com lets you sort kickers by longest-made. Here are the kickers who have made 60+ FGs going back to 2003.

2016: Catanzaro 60
2015: Zuerlein 61
2014: --
2013: Prater 64, Tucker 61
2012: Akers 63, Feely 61, Zuerlein 60
2011: Janikowski 63
2010: Carpenter 60
2009: Janikowski 61
2008: --
2007: --
2006: Bryant 62, Bironas 60
2005: --
2004: --
2003: --

 

 
gonna preach...as a KC fan I love seeing DEN commit long term QB money to a defensive player...thank you....and then in addition under Kubiak they are supposed to be a run heavy team....but where do they put the rest of their money....WR....and then also DB....what did they ignore even though it was an issue last year as well and what you need to run...offensive line...and it has come back to haunt them...they tried to band aid it with rejects like Okung and my former Chief Stephenson....how has that turned out....fact is Johnny Boy got a little to filled with himself when the Broncos lucked in the SB last year....they wanted no part of the Chiefs last year in the playoffs and were glad to see the banged up Big ben, no Antonio Brown and Bell come into to town.... then Gronk and Brady still almost beat them.....

fact is DEN cant win a SB unless they have a HOF QB....and they don't have one and they just gave all that money to a defensive player....thanks Elway....

 
zftcg said:
I'd be really curious to see the difference in win probabilities. Seems like you'd rather be up 4 with 1:00 left than up 8 with 3:00.
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I'd rather be up 9 with 3:00 to play if Kubiak went for 2. No risk there. Miss and you're still up 7. Make and you ice game.

 
Stinkin Ref said:
gonna preach...as a KC fan I love seeing DEN commit long term QB money to a defensive player...thank you....and then in addition under Kubiak they are supposed to be a run heavy team....but where do they put the rest of their money....WR....and then also DB....what did they ignore even though it was an issue last year as well and what you need to run...offensive line...and it has come back to haunt them...they tried to band aid it with rejects like Okung and my former Chief Stephenson....how has that turned out....fact is Johnny Boy got a little to filled with himself when the Broncos lucked in the SB last year....they wanted no part of the Chiefs last year in the playoffs and were glad to see the banged up Big ben, no Antonio Brown and Bell come into to town.... then Gronk and Brady still almost beat them.....

fact is DEN cant win a SB unless they have a HOF QB....and they don't have one and they just gave all that money to a defensive player....thanks Elway....
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LOL at this whole post.

The Broncos have three Super Bowls wins in the last 20 years; the Chiefs have a single playoff win.

Enjoy last night's win, and I know you will, since big wins by the Chiefs are so rare. :popcorn:  

 
Stinkin Ref said:
gonna preach...as a KC fan I love seeing DEN commit long term QB money to a defensive player...thank you....and then in addition under Kubiak they are supposed to be a run heavy team....but where do they put the rest of their money....WR....and then also DB....what did they ignore even though it was an issue last year as well and what you need to run...offensive line...and it has come back to haunt them...they tried to band aid it with rejects like Okung and my former Chief Stephenson....how has that turned out....fact is Johnny Boy got a little to filled with himself when the Broncos lucked in the SB last year....they wanted no part of the Chiefs last year in the playoffs and were glad to see the banged up Big ben, no Antonio Brown and Bell come into to town.... then Gronk and Brady still almost beat them.....

fact is DEN cant win a SB unless they have a HOF QB....and they don't have one and they just gave all that money to a defensive player....thanks Elway....
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Let us know when KC even sniffs a SB.

 
JaxBill said:
I'd rather be up 9 with 3:00 to play if Kubiak went for 2. No risk there. Miss and you're still up 7. Make and you ice game.
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This came up after a similar situation in the SEA-NE game a few weeks ago. There's an argument that going for two provides them with more information (ie, whether you make or miss, KC knows for certain whether they have to score once or twice, whereas if you're up 8 it's still ambiguous), but I think the more compelling argument has to do with the match-ups. In the previous game, Carroll was betting on his offense being able to convert a two-pointer over his defense being able to stop Brady. That's a close call, but last night's was a no-brainer. If you're Kubiak, which situation would you prefer: Your all-world D having to stop Alex Smith, or KC's very good D having to stop Trevor Siemian? Yes, the defenses were gassed, but Denver's roster was constructed exactly for situations like that.

To put it in quantitative terms, the league average for two-point conversions is 47%. Given those match-ups, the likelihood of either offense converting is clearly below league average. So the odds are on the side of the defense.

 
Stinkin Ref said:
gonna preach...as a KC fan I love seeing DEN commit long term QB money to a defensive player...thank you....and then in addition under Kubiak they are supposed to be a run heavy team....but where do they put the rest of their money....WR....and then also DB....what did they ignore even though it was an issue last year as well and what you need to run...offensive line...and it has come back to haunt them...they tried to band aid it with rejects like Okung and my former Chief Stephenson....how has that turned out....fact is Johnny Boy got a little to filled with himself when the Broncos lucked in the SB last year....they wanted no part of the Chiefs last year in the playoffs and were glad to see the banged up Big ben, no Antonio Brown and Bell come into to town.... then Gronk and Brady still almost beat them.....

fact is DEN cant win a SB unless they have a HOF QB....and they don't have one and they just gave all that money to a defensive player....thanks Elway....
Click to expand...
I'm a fan of KC, but this post is embarrassing. Yeah, I'm sure Denver is regretting their SB's and they should have listened to you.

 
zftcg said:
This came up after a similar situation in the SEA-NE game a few weeks ago. There's an argument that going for two provides them with more information (ie, whether you make or miss, KC knows for certain whether they have to score once or twice, whereas if you're up 8 it's still ambiguous), but I think the more compelling argument has to do with the match-ups. In the previous game, Carroll was betting on his offense being able to convert a two-pointer over his defense being able to stop Brady. That's a close call, but last night's was a no-brainer. If you're Kubiak, which situation would you prefer: Your all-world D having to stop Alex Smith, or KC's very good D having to stop Trevor Siemian? Yes, the defenses were gassed, but Denver's roster was constructed exactly for situations like that.

To put it in quantitative terms, the league average for two-point conversions is 47%. Given those match-ups, the likelihood of either offense converting is clearly below league average. So the odds are on the side of the defense.
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Even if  only have a 1 in 4 chance of success, who cares? There's no penalty for missing because a miss still puts you up 7. And that chance for making sews up a win.

 
JaxBill said:
Even if  only have a 1 in 4 chance of success, who cares? There's no penalty for missing because a miss still puts you up 7. And that chance for making sews up a win.
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Unless the miss is short and returned deep. That's a possibility as well on a long one.

dont get me wrong - I liked the FG attempt. Play for the W, not the tie. 

Just pointing out a 3rd possible outcome. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Unless the miss is short and returned deep. That's a possibility as well on a long one.

dont get me wrong - I liked the FG attempt. Play for the W, not the tie. 

Just pointing out a 3rd possible outcome. 
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Huh? I'm talking about going for 2 after the fowler TD. A make puts them up 9 with 3 to play.

 
JaxBill said:
Huh? I'm talking about going for 2 after the fowler TD. A make puts them up 9 with 3 to play.
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Oh - sorry, so much talk about going for the 62 yarder.  Thought that was the context. - my bad. 

Not sure how I feel about not going for 2 there....KC needed a borderline miracle to pull off the TD / 2 pt conversion. 

In hindsight, yes - should have gone for 2.  But at the time I thought being up 8 and trusting the D was the smarter call. It didn't even occur to me that they should go for 2 there. 

Obv looking back I see that's incorrect. ;)  

 
JaxBill said:
Even if  only have a 1 in 4 chance of success, who cares? There's no penalty for missing because a miss still puts you up 7. And that chance for making sews up a win.
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But you could say the same thing about kicking the XP and making them convert. If your D stops them, that also sews up the win, and the worst case is that you tie and go into OT. 

The situations are virtually identical; the only difference is that one requires your offense to convert a 2, the other requires your D to stop one. If you're Denver, you absolutely should take your chances on the latter.

ETA: And BTW, in any of those situations, their WP is less than if they were up 4 with 30 seconds left, which we can say with 99% certainty is the situation they would have been in had Fowler gone down at the one and then Denver kneeled three times before kicking a FG.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Unless the miss is short and returned deep. That's a possibility as well on a long one.

dont get me wrong - I liked the FG attempt. Play for the W, not the tie. 

Just pointing out a 3rd possible outcome. 
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I don't think trying a 62-yard FG is trying to win; it's avoiding the decision altogether. That's the NFL way: when in doubt, pass the buck to a kicker.

 
J R said:
I don't think trying a 62-yard FG is trying to win; it's avoiding the decision altogether. That's the NFL way: when in doubt, pass the buck to a kicker.
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I don't think that's what it was. I think it's psychologically very hard to concede a tie, and Kubiak jumped at the chance, no matter how slim it was, to pull out a win. I'm not saying that was the right decision, but I can understand the motivation behind it.

 
zftcg said:
I don't think that's what it was. I think it's psychologically very hard to concede a tie, and Kubiak jumped at the chance, no matter how slim it was, to pull out a win. I'm not saying that was the right decision, but I can understand the motivation behind it.
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The wise thing to do would be to punt. The gutsy thing to do would be to go for it. The managerial thing to do would be to kick it, because enough people will confuse it with taking a chance that you won't look bad.

 
NFL place-kickers 6-for-72 (8.3 percent) in attempts from at least 62 yards in league history.

Low percentage move. Too short a field and too much time left with the high probability of missing.

 
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