Lottery Tickets (1 Viewer)

[Tornacl]

In dynasty leagues, I always like to have a couple of guys that have a lot of potential, but for whatever reason they haven't done much to this point in their careers. I like to think of them as a lottery ticket, because they don't cost much but they could make a huge impact if they "hit". I don't really think of them as undervalued, because their value is pretty much where they've produced so far. Often, their owners grow tired of waiting for what looks like it may never happen.

I also think of them slightly differently than "buy low" guys, because I usually look at "buy low" players as high performers that for one reason or another had a down year. It may just be semantics.

Past players that I would put into this category that "hit" would obviously be guys like Wes Welker when he went to NE, Victor Cruz last year, Jordy Nelson, Jamaal Charles, Fred Jackson, and Arian Foster. Obviously, it's easy to find guys with the benefit of hind sight, but if you find one it can make a huge impact on your dynasty team for a long time. Not all of them are going to win a championship for you, but could easily be a fantasy starter for your team for a long time without costing much at all.

A couple of players that I'm looking at in this way are:

Dexter McCluster - Don't know what he'll do this year, but every time I watch him I wonder how good he could be if he were used similar to Darren Sproles.

Jordan Shipley - Looked good as a rookie with TO and 85 there and a less-than-stellar Carson Palmer. With Dalton and AJ Green there, he could be a good WR2 for a long time.

Amendola/Salas - Either one could probably be had rather cheaply. Assuming that the Rams pick up a "real" WR to be the WR1, either one of these guys could emerge as a viable WR2 for the Rams and Bradford.

Does anyone else look at guys this way, and if so, who are you looking at?

 

[Mister CIA]

RB - Mike Goodson - Has talent and has shown flashes. If McFadden gets injured, only Taiwan Jones stands in his way.

WR - Adrian Arrington - Looks the part. With Meachem gone, 2012 presents a great opportunity for AA.

TE - Kellen Davis - Has measurables as good as (maybe even better) than Grokowski and Graham. With Martz gone, his production can only get better. I think the Bears will at least give him a serious look at taking on a bigger role.

 

[pghrob]

Yes, I keep a few of these stashed on my roster. (25 man team)

Colin Kaepernick WW pick up late 2011

Dion Lewis Drafted 4th round rookie draft 2011

Bilal Powell 3rd round rookie draft 2011

Julius Thomas WW pick up late 2011

Zach Miller TE Seattle WW pick up late 2011

None of them make me feel too bad if I had to cut in order to make room.

 

[solorca]

I absolutely like to have a few lottery ticket guys on my teams. This year, I've been focusing on a few guys either as waiver wire pickups or late round draft choices in startups...

Julius Thomas - You'll probably need to sit on him for a while given the Tamme and Dreessen signings, but his value is very low now compared to where it was just a month ago. He is built like the next Gates or Graham, and could pay off huge if he hits.

Charles Clay - A free agent in many leagues, and easy to acquire in most, he is a guy who if given the opportunity could pay off nicely. While MFL currently has him listed as a RB, he is more suited for a TE/FB hybrid role. If he moves to tight end and plays the TE/FB spot, you could have a solid TE who get goal line opportunities in the run AND pass game. He's a guy I love having at the very bottom of my roster, or on my taxi squad if available.

David Gettis - He showed a ton of promise in his rookie year in Carolina (with terrible QB's throwing him the ball) and outplayed Brandon Lafell. He is a big receiver who can beat quick corners in coverage. If things hit right, he could be a star.

Earl Bennett - I would expect him to be coveted a little more, he is owned in pretty much every league, but he seems to be able to be acquired for next to nothing in most of them. If he can stay healthy, he should pay nice dividends for his owners. While Brandon Marshall will possibly be suspended early in the year, Bennett will get time to build his connection back up with Jay Cutler, who seems to love him. Even if Marshall isn't suspended, Bennett will likely be the #2 guy heading into the season. When Cutler and Bennett have played together, even going back to their Vanderbilt days, they have produced nice results. The problem has been getting them both on the field at the same time.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Josh Johnson QB SF - Quietly the #2 QB behind Alex Smith, reunited with college coach

Mario Fannin RB DEN - UFA who was put on IR during preseason last year

Marcus Easley WR BUF - 3rd year WR touted as "beast" during player led practices then had non-football ailment keeping him out all year that is hopefully behind him

Joe Morgan WR NOS - Another guy in NO

All 4 TEs in Denver - Obviously.

 

[matttyl]

I've said it in a few threads, and will say it again here....Kevin Smith.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Dion Lewis -- top 10 back if shady gets hurt. think he's already one of the best backups in the league

 

[OrangeCurtain]

Learned my lesson with these last year. Grabbed Cruz off the WW THE PRIOR YEAR and held onto him all through the offseason and rookie draft cut day, but needed to pick someone up and he hadn't done anything so I dropped him literally a couple days before he went off for 2 or 3 TDs, now I'm trying to trade with the guy who has him because we can help each other's needs, and Cruz could be in that mix.

Couple guys I'm holding onto have been listed here: McCluster, Gettis, Virgil Green (one of the 4 Denver TEs)

I'd add Deji Karim (yeah I know about Rashad, we're talking lottery here) and Taylor Price to the list. Ben Tate I don't feel like I can add here, he's too well known but I strongly believe he will be a starting 3 down back before he's done. Think Michael Turner patiently waiting behind LT.

 

[FUBAR]

RB - Mike Goodson - Has talent and has shown flashes. If McFadden gets injured, only Taiwan Jones stands in his way.WR - Adrian Arrington - Looks the part. With Meachem gone, 2012 presents a great opportunity for AA.TE - Kellen Davis - Has measurables as good as (maybe even better) than Grokowski and Graham. With Martz gone, his production can only get better. I think the Bears will at least give him a serious look at taking on a bigger role.

I like the Arrington choice, been hanging onto him in a large league. Hasn't shown squat, but if Brees likes him, watch out. Andre Caldwell is another guy I've held onto. He's shown a little and now has a chance to be Peyton's #2 guy. Probably won't do much, but it is a lottery ticket after all.

 

[johnadams]

Josh Johnson QB SF - Quietly the #2 QB behind Alex Smith, reunited with college coachMario Fannin RB DEN - UFA who was put on IR during preseason last yearMarcus Easley WR BUF - 3rd year WR touted as "beast" during player led practices then had non-football ailment keeping him out all year that is hopefully behind himJoe Morgan WR NOS - Another guy in NOAll 4 TEs in Denver - Obviously.

Very strong list.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

He won't be peytons #2 guy (Thomas/decker). maybe #3 (though i see tamme given his familiarity).

any guy with peyton is worth a shot however and not a bad choice given peyton s made a # of his 3rd wrs worth owning

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

He won't be peytons #2 guy (Thomas/decker). maybe #3 (though i see tamme given his familiarity).any guy with peyton is worth a shot however and not a bad choice given peyton s made a # of his 3rd wrs worth owning

Garcon/Wayne played on the outside and Collie still thrived in the middle. I could see a 3rd WR being FF relevant.

 

[bengalbuck]

WR Armon Binns may be an eye to keep an eye on. Bengals have very little in terms out of outside WRs other than AJ. If the season started now, Binns would likely be the #2. Bengals are going to address the position at some point in the draft, but its just a question of when.

If they wait until the 3rd and grab a guy like Criner, McNutt, Toon, etc. then its not out of the question Binns could end up winning the #2. It would also be somewhat of a vote of confidence in Binns' abilities.

If they end up grabbing a guy like Kendall Wright or Rueben Randle in the 1st, then that definitely hurts his value. But I'd assume he's on most WWs right now (except for very deep leagues) and he has a pretty clear shot at playing time on what could be a pretty good offense.

 

[bmsarvis]

Learned my lesson with these last year. Grabbed Cruz off the WW THE PRIOR YEAR and held onto him all through the offseason and rookie draft cut day, but needed to pick someone up and he hadn't done anything so I dropped him literally a couple days before he went off for 2 or 3 TDs, now I'm trying to trademark with the guy who has him because we can help each other's needs, and Cruz could be in that mix. Couple guys I'm holding onto have been listed here: McCluster, Gettis, Virgil Green (one of the 4 Denver TEs)I'd add Deji Karim (yeah I know about Rashad, we're talking lottery here) and Taylor Price to the list. Ben Tate I don't feel like I can add here, he's too well known but I strongly believe he will be a starting 3 down back before he's done. Think Michael Turner patiently waiting behind LT.

I did the same thing... smdh

 

[Shutout]

RB - Mike Goodson Taiwan Jones- Has talent and has shown flashes. If when McFadden gets injured, only Taiwan Jones Mike Goodson stands in his way.

Fixed. People better get ready to pay for Taiwan Jones if they own Mcfadden. The guy has vision, has speed in the CJ ballpark, and despite what a lot of people say about his size (6-0, 195), he is comparable in size to guys like Jamaal Charles(6-0, 200), Dmac (6-2, 210) (little shorter), CJ (5-11, 195), and a few other guys that people liked to knock early. DMAC can't stay healthy. We know this.

Like the Mario Fannin pick.The Ship has sailed on Shipley. The Bengals aren't that team anymore and I would be shocked if they don't add a WR early. That puts Shipley behind AJ, Gresham, and a promising rookie. And, they still play defense and like to run. Unless/until Dalton enters the Brady/Manning range of production, that is too many mouths to feed.

The problem with Julius Thomas is that his is RAW and Manning is not at a point in his career where Thomas is going to have the luxury of A)developing and B) learning Manning's system. Manning is in the now. If anything, Thomas' development is stunted.

The problem with all the other Denver ball catchers outside of Decker and D. Thomas is that if you are talking about the OP's definition of a lottery ticket (get for dirt cheap and then they pay off for several years), you've broken both criteria. Anybody in a Denver uniform is artificially inflated because of the hype with Manning and by the time any of these guys pan out, Manning is retired. Very short-term, buy and re-sell type of position on these guys.

 

[thriftyrocker]

The problem with all the other Denver ball catchers outside of Decker and D. Thomas is that if you are talking about the OP's definition of a lottery ticket (get for dirt cheap and then they pay off for several years), you've broken both criteria. Anybody in a Denver uniform is artificially inflated because of the hype with Manning and by the time any of these guys pan out, Manning is retired. Very short-term, buy and re-sell type of position on these guys.

At TE though, the fact that there's 4 guys reduces value. If Tamme is my 3rd TE, I would jump at getting a 3rd for him, because it cashes in on a "situation only" value play. Conversely if my TEs are, say, Keller and Dickson, then Tamme is worth a 3rd in order to hopefully luck into more week-to-week production. In many cases hype and "obvious plays" increases the chance of doing a deal because people will more aggressively go after those players.To add to that, I have leagues with > 350 offensive players own where Tamme and/or Dreessen are on waivers and will be available in the rookie draft. I don't expect them to go before the late 3rd. I don't see anyone taking them over Fleener or Allen or perhaps even Charles. They likely will go ahead of deeper stashes like Ladarius Green.Virgil Green is the 4th guy here, and he carries very little value, especially since he is suspended early for taking ADHD meds and not telling the NFL. People will view him as "buried". He'll be there in the 5th round of rookie drafts for sure. He'll probably be on waivers early. Yet many people viewed him as the best pass catching TE in last year's class (Waldman put him #1 in the NYT). Is he a better move TE than Tamme? Maybe maybe not, but Tamme isn't great by any means.

 

[FUBAR]

He won't be peytons #2 guy (Thomas/decker). maybe #3 (though i see tamme given his familiarity).any guy with peyton is worth a shot however and not a bad choice given peyton s made a # of his 3rd wrs worth owning

I'm probably severely be underrating Decker.

 

[Shutout]

The problem with all the other Denver ball catchers outside of Decker and D. Thomas is that if you are talking about the OP's definition of a lottery ticket (get for dirt cheap and then they pay off for several years), you've broken both criteria. Anybody in a Denver uniform is artificially inflated because of the hype with Manning and by the time any of these guys pan out, Manning is retired. Very short-term, buy and re-sell type of position on these guys.

At TE though, the fact that there's 4 guys reduces value. If Tamme is my 3rd TE, I would jump at getting a 3rd for him, because it cashes in on a "situation only" value play. Conversely if my TEs are, say, Keller and Dickson, then Tamme is worth a 3rd in order to hopefully luck into more week-to-week production. In many cases hype and "obvious plays" increases the chance of doing a deal because people will more aggressively go after those players.To add to that, I have leagues with > 350 offensive players own where Tamme and/or Dreessen are on waivers and will be available in the rookie draft. I don't expect them to go before the late 3rd. I don't see anyone taking them over Fleener or Allen or perhaps even Charles. They likely will go ahead of deeper stashes like Ladarius Green.Virgil Green is the 4th guy here, and he carries very little value, especially since he is suspended early for taking ADHD meds and not telling the NFL. People will view him as "buried". He'll be there in the 5th round of rookie drafts for sure. He'll probably be on waivers early. Yet many people viewed him as the best pass catching TE in last year's class (Waldman put him #1 in the NYT). Is he a better move TE than Tamme? Maybe maybe not, but Tamme isn't great by any means.

I agree with where you specified on this. Good post. My main thought behind it in what you quoted was me thinking of guys like Caldwell and any other WR that might be with them right now. I have heard people even talking up the kid who just resigned yesterday that was hurt (name escapes me). But I agree, overall. If tamme was my 3rd TE, I indeed would be looking to make (re-sell) on that. Although, I honestly do think that if we are sitting and waiting a couple of months, by the time rankings start coming out in earnest and are re-worked and updated frequently, there are going to be Tamme rankings in the top 16. I know there isn't a huge history and its a different story, but no TE on that team scares anyone and there is a (albeit short) history of top 3 production the last time Manning and Tamme were playing together. I WOULD look to move him but I think the buyer might be getting a good deal too. And if drafts are going on later, when all this starts happening, I would think in a non-IDP league that is large (16 teams), I could see tamme going in the 2.12 range and before the mid fo the 3rd. Rookies are nice and we all get the fever, to a degree, but if you have a good team in contention that holds a 2.13 or 2,14 or so, I can totally see them going for Tamme.

 

[MAC_32]

Already mentioned's in order

Mario Fannin - maybe this year, get him now

Dion Lewis - obviously not this year, might not have to get him now if he's not available

David Gettis - this year

Marcus Easley - this year, if he doesn't do it now he won't

Adrian Arrington - should know if he's worth anything by week 4, get him now

Julius Thomas - not this year, but will be following preseason closely to see how he's developing to see if he's got a shot for 2013

Colin Kaepernick - not rostering as my dynos are not deep enough (#1 - keep 30 w/IDP + college taxi #2 - salary cap auction keeper but with roster limits and I already have Mallett stashed on developmental squad)..speaking of Mallett...

I'll add

Ryan Mallett - Depends on the type of league, you'll probably know how the Pats feel about him this time next year but he still won't be worth anything for a while. In my case I can stash him as a 3rd QB behind Rivers and Bradford, might make sense.

Jaquizz Rodgers - although his owners probably think like I do in that he is their future lead back

Steve Smith - 2nd year post knee op, Fisher was gushing about him, and seems to be penciled into a starting role

Austin Collie - not sure how much his value has nose dived, but I get the impression many are leaving him for dead. Might not be worth much in 2012, but 2013 could be a different story. Prob more of a buy low than a lotto ticket though.

Clyde Gates - if his owner will sell him now take the flier and see what the Fins do in the draft

Randall Cobb - probably not this year, so it may be easier/cheaper to acquire him as a throw-in during the year

James Casey - may not know until he becomes a UFA next year

Phillip Tanner - Felix Jones probably won't get traded, but if he does...

Jonathan Dwyer - If Pittsburgh doesn't take a RB before day 3...

Curtis Brinkley - Same case in San Diego

Taiwan Jones - may be harder to acquire than above 3 because Raiders don't have cap space and draft picks to make upgrades at backup while they have other priority needs

Titus Young - also may be difficult to acquire, opportunity is there and offense is potent

Dennis Pitta - draft may change my perception though

Rob Housler - maybe this year, opportunity's there

Jordan Cameron - not this year, but will follow in camp to see if there might be something there for 2013

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Can't believe no one's mentioned Da'Rel Scott! One of my favorite lottery tickets right now, along with Kealoha Pilares, Jerel Jernigan, Julian Edelman, Kevin Smith, Mario Fannin, and Armanti Edwards.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Eddie Royal

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Eddie Royal

Eh, not seeing it. Maybe in league that reward return yardage.

 

[MAC_32]

Can't believe no one's mentioned Da'Rel Scott! One of my favorite lottery tickets right now, along with Kealoha Pilares, Jerel Jernigan, Julian Edelman, Kevin Smith, Mario Fannin, and Armanti Edwards.

I wasn't impressed with Scott, the prospect. That said, if the Giants don't take a RB before day 3 my interest will peak. Actions > words > Scott's draft position > my evaluation of him. I think they take someone day 2 though.What do you have on Pilares? Never heard of him.

 

[solorca]

Can't believe no one's mentioned Da'Rel Scott! One of my favorite lottery tickets right now, along with Kealoha Pilares, Jerel Jernigan, Julian Edelman, Kevin Smith, Mario Fannin, and Armanti Edwards.

Panthers fan here, and I'm curious about why you are so high on Pilares and Edwards? Pilares definitely has potential as a deep threat with a shot to be a player in Carolina if things hit perfectly, so I can at least see the thought process in that one...but Edwards is a real head scratcher for me. He hasn't really shown anything in his time, and even though converting from QB is tough, he hasn't really shown many signs of improvement to warrant anyone buying into him. At best, I think he may catch on as a decent special teams player (although he has shown he's not that good as a returner either). I just don't see any reason to waste a roster spot on him...and I'm a App State graduate and a Panther homer, so if anyone was going to buy into the guy, it should be me.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Can't believe no one's mentioned Da'Rel Scott! One of my favorite lottery tickets right now, along with Kealoha Pilares, Jerel Jernigan, Julian Edelman, Kevin Smith, Mario Fannin, and Armanti Edwards.

Panthers fan here, and I'm curious about why you are so high on Pilares and Edwards? Pilares definitely has potential as a deep threat with a shot to be a player in Carolina if things hit perfectly, so I can at least see the thought process in that one...but Edwards is a real head scratcher for me. He hasn't really shown anything in his time, and even though converting from QB is tough, he hasn't really shown many signs of improvement to warrant anyone buying into him. At best, I think he may catch on as a decent special teams player (although he has shown he's not that good as a returner either). I just don't see any reason to waste a roster spot on him...and I'm a App State graduate and a Panther homer, so if anyone was going to buy into the guy, it should be me.

What do you have on Pilares? Never heard of him.

I like Pilares' tenacity going after the ball in the air, and his ability to be a deep threat for Cam. I think that as Steve Smith ages, there's nobody on the roster with a similar skill-set but Pilares. Edwards is the epitome of "flier" or "lottery ticket" even more than most of the guys in this thread, I just like his athleticism and opportunity. A guy making that transition could take 3-4 years to mature at the position at least, and I read good things about him coming along at the end of the year.But I play in a couple of VERY deep leagues....like, there's NOTHING on the waiver wire. 36 man rosters + 2 player IR, all offense. So for me, these are fliers, even if they are a tier or 5 below the guys that others list as sleepers in shallower leagues. Really gotta dig in a league with basically 38 man rosters.

 

[Cleat Spike]

Brandon Saine - speed, power, hands and only Starks to share if Grant leaves. PPR gem in GB.

Danario Alexander - (even if a rookie WR comes in) he's already ramped up with Bradford, finally healthy and has shown WR1 talent and an ability to highpoint the ball like a slightly poor man's elite WR).

Mike Goodson - the guy does a lot and picks up big chunks of yardage/ff points, multi tooled speedster.

Mario Fannin - Fannin- Camp Speed and pillow hands. Foxball.

Curtis Brinkley - opportunity could be there.

Ridley- GL and short yardage work has to go somewhere...plenty of yardage, open space, points, TDs to be had now.

 

[Frank Costanza's Lawyer]

 

[dickey moe]

Danario Alexander - (even if a rookie WR comes in) he's already ramped up with Bradford, finally healthy and has shown WR1 talent.

When? One or two games?

 

[Whitney26]

I really like some of the guys already mentioned:

Kealoha Pilares

Mario Fannin

Mike Goodson

Dennis Pitta

Phillip Tanner

Rob Housler

Joe Morgan

Here are some other deep fliers at WR & TE I feel are worth a mention:

Donald Jones - UDFA same season Cruz came out. Almost identical physical attributes. Seeing lots of targets before injury cut his 2011 season short. My favorite WR flier that can be had cheap.

Aldrick Robinson - very productive at SMU. Developed slowly due to the lockout. Skills to man the slot in WAS with Garcon & Morgan outside.

Terrence Toliver - shot to be the #4 in DET. Impressive metrics but inconsistent production at LSU. Could play a big role if Burleson or Young are hurt.

Jarred Fayson or Jeremy Ross - besides Collie & Wayne, IND is very thin at WR. One or both of these guys should make the team.

Lester Jean - Impressed in HOU camp last season before he landed on IR. If they don't draft a WR, could push Jacoby for an outside spot.

Dwayne Harris - disappointed last year. Think lockout really hurt him. This kid is a football player. More of a slot guy but can play outside. Will compete with Holmes & Ogletree for WR3. Added value in return leagues.

Jerrel Jernigan - slot guy only. Cruz likely to move outside. 3/4ths of his production came out of the slot last season. Smith was productive before that. Eli loves the slot guys.

Gary Barnridge - very athletic TE in CAR. Injured all of last season. Unlikely to bring Shockey back.

David Ausberry - not productive at USC where he played WR. Off-the-chart physical metrics. Will have an opportunity in OAK.

 

[Cleat Spike]

Danario Alexander - (even if a rookie WR comes in) he's already ramped up with Bradford, finally healthy and has shown WR1 talent.

When? One or two games?

No, one or two catches, but you can't win the lotto if you don't play, right?

 

[Mookie]

Danario Alexander - (even if a rookie WR comes in) he's already ramped up with Bradford, finally healthy and has shown WR1 talent.

When? One or two games?

Finally healthy? Are you sure about that? Seems like his knee issues are more of a chronic thing.

 

[Ian F]

I really like some of the guys already mentioned:

Kealoha Pilares

Mario Fannin

Mike Goodson

Dennis Pitta

Phillip Tanner

Rob Housler

Joe Morgan

Here are some other deep fliers at WR & TE I feel are worth a mention:

Donald Jones - UDFA same season Cruz came out. Almost identical physical attributes. Seeing lots of targets before injury cut his 2011 season short. My favorite WR flier that can be had cheap.

Aldrick Robinson - very productive at SMU. Developed slowly due to the lockout. Skills to man the slot in WAS with Garcon & Morgan outside.

Terrence Toliver - shot to be the #4 in DET. Impressive metrics but inconsistent production at LSU. Could play a big role if Burleson or Young are hurt.

Jarred Fayson or Jeremy Ross - besides Collie & Wayne, IND is very thin at WR. One or both of these guys should make the team.

Lester Jean - Impressed in HOU camp last season before he landed on IR. If they don't draft a WR, could push Jacoby for an outside spot.

Dwayne Harris - disappointed last year. Think lockout really hurt him. This kid is a football player. More of a slot guy but can play outside. Will compete with Holmes & Ogletree for WR3. Added value in return leagues.

Jerrel Jernigan - slot guy only. Cruz likely to move outside. 3/4ths of his production came out of the slot last season. Smith was productive before that. Eli loves the slot guys.

Gary Barnridge - very athletic TE in CAR. Injured all of last season. Unlikely to bring Shockey back.

David Ausberry - not productive at USC where he played WR. Off-the-chart physical metrics. Will have an opportunity in OAK.

I think he has lost a lot of his speed since his HoF baseball career

 

[Live To Ride]

My money is on WR Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

2012-1075 yds 8 TDs just a guess

Baldwin already working hard: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”

 

[Riffraff]

My money is on WR Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks 2012-1075 yds 8 TDs just a guessBaldwin already working hard: The Tacoma News Tribune reports that Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin is already working out with the hope of building on an impressive rookie season. As an undrafted rookie free agent out of Stanford, he was a long shot to make the team last season, let alone lead Seattle in receiving. But that’s what Baldwin did. He finished with a team-high 51 receptions for 788 yards and four touchdowns, good enough for fourth in the league among rookies in receptions and yards. Baldwin also finished 11th in the league in percentage of receptions caught for first downs (78.4 percent), and fourth in the league with 23 catches on third down to move the chains. The hard-working Baldwin said he thinks he can do better. “I felt like the stats and everything (were) real average,” he said. “But you’ve got to have that sense of confidence about yourself when you step out on the field. To be honest with you, I didn’t think I’d have the opportunity to step out on the field that early. And with that, the transition wasn’t really that difficult because we have such a great coaching staff and they explain everything so well that it makes it easier for you to understand it and grasp the offense.”

Baldwin was on local radio today talking about how excited he and Leon Washington are about... special teams. Didn't mention wideout duties. I found that interesting.

 

[JohnnyU]

I really like some of the guys already mentioned:

Kealoha Pilares

Mario Fannin

Mike Goodson

Dennis Pitta

Phillip Tanner

Rob Housler

Joe Morgan

Here are some other deep fliers at WR & TE I feel are worth a mention:

Donald Jones - UDFA same season Cruz came out. Almost identical physical attributes. Seeing lots of targets before injury cut his 2011 season short. My favorite WR flier that can be had cheap.

Aldrick Robinson - very productive at SMU. Developed slowly due to the lockout. Skills to man the slot in WAS with Garcon & Morgan outside.

Terrence Toliver - shot to be the #4 in DET. Impressive metrics but inconsistent production at LSU. Could play a big role if Burleson or Young are hurt.

Jarred Fayson or Jeremy Ross - besides Collie & Wayne, IND is very thin at WR. One or both of these guys should make the team.

Lester Jean - Impressed in HOU camp last season before he landed on IR. If they don't draft a WR, could push Jacoby for an outside spot.

Dwayne Harris - disappointed last year. Think lockout really hurt him. This kid is a football player. More of a slot guy but can play outside. Will compete with Holmes & Ogletree for WR3. Added value in return leagues.

Jerrel Jernigan - slot guy only. Cruz likely to move outside. 3/4ths of his production came out of the slot last season. Smith was productive before that. Eli loves the slot guys.

Gary Barnridge - very athletic TE in CAR. Injured all of last season. Unlikely to bring Shockey back.

David Ausberry - not productive at USC where he played WR. Off-the-chart physical metrics. Will have an opportunity in OAK.

I think he has lost a lot of his speed since his HoF baseball career

I always loved that twitch in his elbow when at bat.

 

[texasbirdfan]

In dynasty leagues, I always like to have a couple of guys that have a lot of potential, but for whatever reason they haven't done much to this point in their careers. I like to think of them as a lottery ticket, because they don't cost much but they could make a huge impact if they "hit". I don't really think of them as undervalued, because their value is pretty much where they've produced so far. Often, their owners grow tired of waiting for what looks like it may never happen.

I also think of them slightly differently than "buy low" guys, because I usually look at "buy low" players as high performers that for one reason or another had a down year. It may just be semantics.

Past players that I would put into this category that "hit" would obviously be guys like Wes Welker when he went to NE, Victor Cruz last year, Jordy Nelson, Jamaal Charles, Fred Jackson, and Arian Foster. Obviously, it's easy to find guys with the benefit of hind sight, but if you find one it can make a huge impact on your dynasty team for a long time. Not all of them are going to win a championship for you, but could easily be a fantasy starter for your team for a long time without costing much at all.

A couple of players that I'm looking at in this way are:

Dexter McCluster - Don't know what he'll do this year, but every time I watch him I wonder how good he could be if he were used similar to Darren Sproles.

Jordan Shipley - Looked good as a rookie with TO and 85 there and a less-than-stellar Carson Palmer. With Dalton and AJ Green there, he could be a good WR2 for a long time.

Amendola/Salas - Either one could probably be had rather cheaply. Assuming that the Rams pick up a "real" WR to be the WR1, either one of these guys could emerge as a viable WR2 for the Rams and Bradford.

Does anyone else look at guys this way, and if so, who are you looking at?

I gotta think like you I guess. Holdovers on my Falcon dynasty team roster are Shipley, Amendola and McCluster (12 team, ppr, 20 limit roster)- had them all season. Living here in Texas- Shipley and Amendola were no secret coming out of college....

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Jimmy Clausen

 

[texasbirdfan]

Already mentioned's in order

Mario Fannin - maybe this year, get him now

Dion Lewis - obviously not this year, might not have to get him now if he's not available

David Gettis - this year

Marcus Easley - this year, if he doesn't do it now he won't

Adrian Arrington - should know if he's worth anything by week 4, get him now

Julius Thomas - not this year, but will be following preseason closely to see how he's developing to see if he's got a shot for 2013

Colin Kaepernick - not rostering as my dynos are not deep enough (#1 - keep 30 w/IDP + college taxi #2 - salary cap auction keeper but with roster limits and I already have Mallett stashed on developmental squad)..speaking of Mallett...

I'll add

Ryan Mallett - Depends on the type of league, you'll probably know how the Pats feel about him this time next year but he still won't be worth anything for a while. In my case I can stash him as a 3rd QB behind Rivers and Bradford, might make sense.

Jaquizz Rodgers - although his owners probably think like I do in that he is their future lead back

Steve Smith - 2nd year post knee op, Fisher was gushing about him, and seems to be penciled into a starting role

Austin Collie - not sure how much his value has nose dived, but I get the impression many are leaving him for dead. Might not be worth much in 2012, but 2013 could be a different story. Prob more of a buy low than a lotto ticket though.

Clyde Gates - if his owner will sell him now take the flier and see what the Fins do in the draft

Randall Cobb - probably not this year, so it may be easier/cheaper to acquire him as a throw-in during the year

James Casey - may not know until he becomes a UFA next year

Phillip Tanner - Felix Jones probably won't get traded, but if he does...

Jonathan Dwyer - If Pittsburgh doesn't take a RB before day 3...

Curtis Brinkley - Same case in San Diego

Taiwan Jones - may be harder to acquire than above 3 because Raiders don't have cap space and draft picks to make upgrades at backup while they have other priority needs

Titus Young - also may be difficult to acquire, opportunity is there and offense is potent

Dennis Pitta - draft may change my perception though

Rob Housler - maybe this year, opportunity's there

Jordan Cameron - not this year, but will follow in camp to see if there might be something there for 2013

Today's latest on Gates:"I can also tell you the Dolphins are hoping from a lot out of Clyde Gates. He was on the receiving end of more passes than just about any wide receiver today. I didn't say he was the most impressive receiver at the workout. To me, that was Brian Hartline and Roberto Wallace.

But suffice to say Gates was a major focal point."

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2012/04/the-dolphins-are-participating-in-a-voluntary-veteran-minicamp-and-right-away-i-noticed-two-things-1-cameron-wake-was-not.html#storylink=cpy

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Jimmy Clausen

*Hawk Screech*

 

[solorca]

Jimmy Clausen

*Hawk Screech*

Let all the "sharks" in your league overdraft Cam Newton. I'll take Jimmy Clausen in the 15th round and watch him become the starter by week 8. If he doesn't, I'll pay everyone in the Shark Pool $1.00!

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I think randall Cobb is far and away the #1 guy. he's got the potential imo to have several top 10-15 seasons. The cost isn't close to that now.

id rather acquire him too early than to never see again in his career

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Jimmy Clausen

*Hawk Screech*

Let all the "sharks" in your league overdraft Cam Newton. I'll take Jimmy Clausen in the 15th round and watch him become the starter by week 8. If he doesn't, I'll pay everyone in the Shark Pool $1.00!

I like Clausen a lot more in dynasty than I do in re-draft; there's no reason to spend a draft pick on Clausen in a re-draft if that's what Otis is suggesting.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

I think randall Cobb is far and away the #1 guy. he's got the potential imo to have several top 10-15 seasons. The cost isn't close to that now.

id rather acquire him too early than to never see again in his career

Just traded for him last week.I still like Mike Thomas in PPR leagues but you might have to wait until Jacksonville gives up on the Blaine Gabbert experiment... who knows when that will be? Thomas is small, but has a 40 inch vertical, goes up and gets the ball, runs good routes.... the talent is there.

 

[Shutout]

Chastin West. A lot of people will likely have to do some research to figure out who he is but it will be time well spent.

Agree on Cobb. There really is no reason he wouldn't be scoring a lot in PPRs in the next few years.