MHJ v Nabers v Odunze - Who is truly #1? (2 Viewers)

[Soulfly3]

Season is (basically) complete, aside from our boy Odunze flexing for the title... Been doing plenty of tape watching, to remind myself of what I've seen all season long.

Let me start with this... I originally had it, MHJ, Nabers and Odunze, with me flipping between NHJ and Nabers for the one spot. But I've been touting Penix for a long while now and the more attention I gave to Odunze, the more I rewatched the tape, and then looked at the competition they've played.... I think we have a REAL conundrum.

Who is truly the best WR in college football, in your opinion, and how do you rank them going into the draft?


For comparisons sake (stats and stats v RANKED opponents this season)

MHJ - 67 / 1211 / 14tds - Played v 3 ranked opponents (Michigan, PSU, ND) -> 19 / 312 / 2tds

Nabers - 89 / 1569 / 14tds - Played v 4 ranked opponents (Bama, Mizz, Miss, FSU) -> 30 / 486 / 2tds

Odunze - 87 / 1553 / 13tds - Played v 6 ranked opponents (Texas. Oregon x2, Org St, Utah, USC, ) -> 37/654/6tds


I am today at a point, where I cannot differentiate between WRs as to who is my 1/2/3. What a blessing, and a curse... For me, it's simple as I have the 3 pick, so I'm getting who's left. But not the point... These guys are ALL THREE, #1 WRs in practically any other year.

I will no longer sit by and allow this to be a MHJ and then everyone else discussion. It's not correct. All three are such different WRs... They all have so many positives... It's hard to know who really is going to be the best in the NFL.

Thoughts?

 

[JohnnyU]

All will be good IMO. If I had the 1.01 I wouldn't care about landing spot. If I had the 1.02 and it's a start 1qb league, I might care.

 

[Soulfly3]

All will be good IMO.

I have no doubts about this. I'd kill to be the owner of all three. I know there's zero chance anyone w #1 will sell, but I'd love to grab #2 somehow... There aren't many players I wouldn't give up for that pick.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

MHJ is the 1.01 for me.

I think he's the best prospect but even if I didn't, he has the most insulated value due to his name and the hype around him, as well as the high likelihood he'll be drafted before the others.
The others might end up as superior fantasy receivers (I think Nabers and his YAC in particular could) but MHJ is still more valuable until they prove otherwise, and he'll probably still be just as valuable even if the others prove they are elite quicker than he does.

 

[Soulfly3]

he has the most insulated value due to his name and the hype around him,

this part in undisputable. his value is absolute insanity... I wish I had the 1 pick to sell a spot or two down, tbh... Alas, I don't

 

[jm192]

I'm also a big fan of all 3.

As of today, I would go in the order you listed them in the thread title. But it may change several times between now and rookie draft season.
I do feel like MHJ is the #1. If nothing else due to the insane hype/name value.

But I can see flip flopping between Nabers and Rome 100 times between now and rookie drafts.

 

[flapgreen]

I have the 3rd pick so won't be much thought required from me.

 

[BigTex]

I think they are all close as well can’t go wrong with either but I like Nabers the most at this point. I’m picking at the 1.10 spot so I have no chance at either unless I traded one of my running backs because the top 3 teams really need a running back.

Tex

 

[menobrown]

I got 1.1 via draft playoffs in two leagues will just focus on one and my thought process which is a FBG Sharkpool league.

This league is standard FFPC, one start QB, TE premium and I had two shots at the 1.1, my own pick and another team whose pick I owned. My own team lost, by about a point, in the first week which took me out of a top 4 pick, ended up with worst possible pick I could get which was 6. The team whose pick I own was in a h2h for pick one against Lamb and some other players who had done well and I went to bed this last Saturday night after the Cowboys game have made peace with the fact I had picks 2 and 6.

I'll just say while I'm happy to have ended up "winning" the 1.1 I was more bummed about that pick 6 not being 4 then I was when I thought I got 1.2 instead of 1.1.

Long way of saying I in this leagues format I got a Big 4 which includes these 3 WR's and Bowers. Obviously each league will be different depending on if you are in SF or non-TE premium.

Now as to what I'm going to do with the 1.1 if I stick and pick? I'm keeping an open mind but no doubt MHJ is the front runner. Just think he's as clean as a prospect as it gets while also offering upside. It's like I heard someone put it this way. His personal pedigree, combined with the pedigree of the Ohio St WR factory along with his size/speed combo and overall talent just makes him to safe.

But it might be close enough that situation matters, I'm looking at NE hovering around as a real issue depending on what they do with HC and QB.

Trading back will be an option for me and I'd add that I'd more interested in trading for pick 3 or 4 and paying that cost right now in this format then I am paying for the 1.1.

 

[caustic]

MHJ and Nabers are my only tier 1 WRs. Would pick MHJ first but it's fairly close - and that's not a knock on MHJ, Nabers is just that good. Then I have Odunze in tier 2 all by himself and a handful of guys in tier 3.

 

[Gottabesweet]

I have pick 2,3,4 and no needs I’ve thought about making a package for 1.1 but maybe I just stockpile after reading this thread.

 

[joey]

I got 1.1 via draft playoffs in two leagues will just focus on one and my thought process which is a FBG Sharkpool league.

You’re welcome

 

[Da Franchise]

Add Bowers to the mix and I see 4 elite prospects. Long way to go but my early comps are:

MHJ- Julio
Nabers- OBJ
Odunze- Mike Evans
Bowers- Ditka

No idea how to order them yet but would be thrilled to have any of them. Landing spot will matter for me a little.

 

[Soulfly3]

Bowers is absolutely in the mix. So much so, that I had him in my #3 spot just a week ago for my league (1.5ppr TE)... but again, going back, seeing the season, the numbers, the big game performances, the bowl game.... I was too low on Odunze at 4. I might be too low on Odunze at 3 or even 2.

I need more top 4 picks, dammit...

 

[-OZ-]

All will be good IMO.

I have no doubts about this. I'd kill to be the owner of all three. I know there's zero chance anyone w #1 will sell, but I'd love to grab #2 somehow... There aren't many players I wouldn't give up for that pick.

I’m lucky enough to have traded for the pick that ended up being 1.01 in one league where I have the 1.02. No doubt right now it’s MHJ and Nabers. Also traded for what ended up being the 1.02 in SF - The top 5 in SF formats will be interesting, add bowers, penix and Daniels in the mix and the first 8 picks should be highly valuable.

 

[Crippler]

All will be good IMO.

I have no doubts about this. I'd kill to be the owner of all three. I know there's zero chance anyone w #1 will sell, but I'd love to grab #2 somehow... There aren't many players I wouldn't give up for that pick.

I’m lucky enough to have traded for the pick that ended up being 1.01 in one league where I have the 1.02. No doubt right now it’s MHJ and Nabers. Also traded for what ended up being the 1.02 in SF - The top 5 in SF formats will be interesting, add bowers, penix and Daniels in the mix and the first 8 picks should be highly valuable.

Put in RB going to great spot like Henderson to Dallas in round 2 and that adds another layer as we all know everyone loves the RB in drafts.

 

[Soulfly3]

All will be good IMO.

I have no doubts about this. I'd kill to be the owner of all three. I know there's zero chance anyone w #1 will sell, but I'd love to grab #2 somehow... There aren't many players I wouldn't give up for that pick.

I’m lucky enough to have traded for the pick that ended up being 1.01 in one league where I have the 1.02. No doubt right now it’s MHJ and Nabers. Also traded for what ended up being the 1.02 in SF - The top 5 in SF formats will be interesting, add bowers, penix and Daniels in the mix and the first 8 picks should be highly valuable.

Put in RB going to great spot like Henderson to Dallas in round 2 and that adds another layer as we all know everyone loves the RB in drafts.

I'm personally not touching an RB round 1 with all this WR depth, but you're right... RBs are always in hot demand. and 1-2 will always hit.

 

[-OZ-]

All will be good IMO.

I have no doubts about this. I'd kill to be the owner of all three. I know there's zero chance anyone w #1 will sell, but I'd love to grab #2 somehow... There aren't many players I wouldn't give up for that pick.

I’m lucky enough to have traded for the pick that ended up being 1.01 in one league where I have the 1.02. No doubt right now it’s MHJ and Nabers. Also traded for what ended up being the 1.02 in SF - The top 5 in SF formats will be interesting, add bowers, penix and Daniels in the mix and the first 8 picks should be highly valuable.

Put in RB going to great spot like Henderson to Dallas in round 2 and that adds another layer as we all know everyone loves the RB in drafts.

I'm personally not touching an RB round 1 with all this WR depth, but you're right... RBs are always in hot demand. and 1-2 will always hit.

Henderson could be a great late first round pick. But I don’t see a path for him going top 6 in SF.

 

[Da Franchise]

Bowers is absolutely in the mix. So much so, that I had him in my #3 spot just a week ago for my league (1.5ppr TE)... but again, going back, seeing the season, the numbers, the big game performances, the bowl game.... I was too low on Odunze at 4. I might be too low on Odunze at 3 or even 2.

I need more top 4 picks, dammit...

My early take is it will be near impossible to justify taking someone over MJH at 1.01. On top of all the ridiculous skill, he has the bloodline and value insulation in his corner. There would need to be a night and day difference in landing spot to consider it, otherwise we’re just getting cute trying to outthink ourselves.

The other 3 though could go any which way.

I’d rank Bowers over Odunze/Nabers though if we’re simply asking who the best player is. The guy is a cyborg.

I’m with you though, regardless of the ranking, Odunze is really damn good.

 

[JohnnyU]

Bowers is in the discussion for 1.02 or 1.03 in a start 1qb TE Premium league.

 

[Soulfly3]

Bowers is in the discussion for 1.02 or 1.03 in a start 1qb league.

the ONLY thing giving me pause, is I drafted and own Kyle Pitts.
Now, I firmly believe injuries and playing for Atlanta has severely liimted him.... and Im 100% sure it'll pay off... I dont want this situation again. And I KNOW I cant compare one to the other, but it still haunts me

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Not for me. Unless you're in a TE premium (which I personally think are silly) then I don't see it as the smart play.

I reckon you could buy pretty much every tight end in your league with one of those picks, again assuming it's not a TE premium.

 

[JohnnyU]

Not for me. Unless you're in a TE premium (which I personally think are silly) then I don't see it as the smart play.

I reckon you could buy pretty much every tight end in your league with one of those picks, again assuming it's not a TE premium.

I agree, I meant TE Premium and modified my post to say that.

 

[menobrown]

Bowers is in the discussion for 1.02 or 1.03 in a start 1qb league.

the ONLY thing giving me pause, is I drafted and own Kyle Pitts.
Now, I firmly believe injuries and playing for Atlanta has severely liimted him.... and Im 100% sure it'll pay off... I dont want this situation again. And I KNOW I cant compare one to the other, but it still haunts me

I posted up thread that I thought I was going to get 1.2 in a one QB start TE premium league and in that league I already have Laporta, Kincaid, Pitts and Musgrave on a short roster league (FFPC). I got 1.1 so don't have to think about it anymore but if I had got 1.2 and had to draft today I'd draft Bowers at 1.2 and deal with trades or whatever for need later. Just think it's best to go BPA(which is how I got all these TE's in the first place) and to me while I think Nabers and Doubs belong in the discussion, he's still my #2 in TE premium.

Still high on Pitts potential but one area I really like Bowers more, especially in a league were you get 1.5 points for just catching the ball, is that he's a YAC monster who sould see matchups against mainly LB's and S's. Pitt's almsot never runs a route lined up as a TE, much less favorable matchups because teams play him like he's a WR and his routes are the higher degree of success types which typically require better QB play. PItt's has had almost everything working against him and I think Bowers is insulated against some of those things no matter how unattractive the spot could end up.

 

[Gally]

Just think it's best to go BPA(which is how I got all these TE's in the first place)

I think too many people go away from that in rookie drafts to their detriment. The goal in a rookie draft is to get a starter out of the pick. The best way for that to happen is to take the best player available. Taking a guy for position need that is lesser and has a lesser chance of becoming a starter doesn't do you any good. Getting a starter at a position of strength still gives you a valuable piece that you can use.

 

[menobrown]

Just think it's best to go BPA(which is how I got all these TE's in the first place)

I think too many people go away from that in rookie drafts to their detriment. The goal in a rookie draft is to get a starter out of the pick. The best way for that to happen is to take the best player available. Taking a guy for position need that is lesser and has a lesser chance of becoming a starter doesn't do you any good. Getting a starter at a position of strength still gives you a valuable piece that you can use.

Might be biggest mistake people make but I understand it because anytime someone new to dynasty asks me for advice one of the first things I tell them is "draft BPA and trade for need". But for all my advice I'd be lying if I said I was not immune to making the mistake myself sometimes and it's really just bad business.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

2023 was a tough draft to take BPA. There was a top 3 for me but after that it was basically wide open.

 

[Gally]

2023 was a tough draft to take BPA. There was a top 3 for me but after that it was basically wide open.

But you still can do the homework to decide who your BPA is and then trust your eval and draft accordingly. If you truly have a tier of 3 or 4 and don't care between them then you should be able to trade back and gain an asset or two and take who falls for you.

Nobody knows for sure who will turn out to be the BPA. It's all just educated guess work. Because of that you have to figure out your own rankings (or find someone's you trust) and then the draft should be easy. Just take the guy at the top of your list when it's your turn to draft.

 

[finfansteve]

Just think it's best to go BPA(which is how I got all these TE's in the first place)

I think too many people go away from that in rookie drafts to their detriment. The goal in a rookie draft is to get a starter out of the pick. The best way for that to happen is to take the best player available. Taking a guy for position need that is lesser and has a lesser chance of becoming a starter doesn't do you any good. Getting a starter at a position of strength still gives you a valuable piece that you can use.

Happens all the time. In one of my 2014 drafts I was on the outside looking in on my top four prospects at pick 1.05. Figured I wouldn’t get one of them. Guy at 1.04 needed a rb and took Bishop Sankey! I grabbed Mike Evans even tho I didn’t need wr and haven’t looked back since. Bishop Sankey owner not only blew that pick but ended up chasing rbs for several years after continously failing while his team crumbled yearly.

I have both Pitts and kincaide but if bowers drops to me at 1.04 and the top three wrs are off the board I’m taking him I don’t care I already have two top young tes he’s gonna be on my roster

the lesson is just grab the best player and figure it out later

 

[Penguin]

All will be good IMO.

I have no doubts about this. I'd kill to be the owner of all three. I know there's zero chance anyone w #1 will sell, but I'd love to grab #2 somehow... There aren't many players I wouldn't give up for that pick.

I’m lucky enough to have traded for the pick that ended up being 1.01 in one league where I have the 1.02. No doubt right now it’s MHJ and Nabers. Also traded for what ended up being the 1.02 in SF - The top 5 in SF formats will be interesting, add bowers, penix and Daniels in the mix and the first 8 picks should be highly valuable.

Put in RB going to great spot like Henderson to Dallas in round 2 and that adds another layer as we all know everyone loves the RB in drafts.

I'm personally not touching an RB round 1 with all this WR depth, but you're right... RBs are always in hot demand. and 1-2 will always hit.

Henderson could be a great late first round pick. But I don’t see a path for him going top 6 in SF.

I think he's heading back to Ohio St.

 

[JohnnyU]

All will be good IMO.

I have no doubts about this. I'd kill to be the owner of all three. I know there's zero chance anyone w #1 will sell, but I'd love to grab #2 somehow... There aren't many players I wouldn't give up for that pick.

I’m lucky enough to have traded for the pick that ended up being 1.01 in one league where I have the 1.02. No doubt right now it’s MHJ and Nabers. Also traded for what ended up being the 1.02 in SF - The top 5 in SF formats will be interesting, add bowers, penix and Daniels in the mix and the first 8 picks should be highly valuable.

Put in RB going to great spot like Henderson to Dallas in round 2 and that adds another layer as we all know everyone loves the RB in drafts.

I'm personally not touching an RB round 1 with all this WR depth, but you're right... RBs are always in hot demand. and 1-2 will always hit.

Henderson could be a great late first round pick. But I don’t see a path for him going top 6 in SF.

I think he's heading back to Ohio St.

We don't know right now, but there are rumors.

 

[Crippler]

I just remember 2020 draft. My SF home league had the 3 nice looking QBs 1-2-3 with Burrow, Tua, Justin. There was some nice looking WRs in draft. And my league is heavy WR due to only needing 1 RB and PPR but CEH who went to KC and Taylor to Indy went 4-5. I ended up with Lamb at 8, Jefferson at 13, Pittman at 17 and Aiyuck at 21. I held pick 5 and moved down for Lamb. I did miss with Reagor at 14. RBs seem to dominate most drafts in the end. Even 21 had the 4 QBs, Chase, Pitts in top 6, than went Harris, Etienne before I got Waddle. And this league had Breeece drop to 11 but went to Jets and Walker 14 in 22. Just takes landing in perfect spot to mix things up. I won’t be surprised to see RB in top 4 in non SF and 1 in top 6 in SF in many drafts.
My league mocks have been RB dropping to 13 but can see higher when time comes.

 

[Ilov80s]

Just think it's best to go BPA(which is how I got all these TE's in the first place)

I think too many people go away from that in rookie drafts to their detriment. The goal in a rookie draft is to get a starter out of the pick. The best way for that to happen is to take the best player available. Taking a guy for position need that is lesser and has a lesser chance of becoming a starter doesn't do you any good. Getting a starter at a position of strength still gives you a valuable piece that you can use.

Yep and just like in real football, a strength on a dynasty team can become a weakness quickly. Imagine coming into this year with J. Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Calvin Ridley, Drake London, Jahan Dotson, Jerry Jeudy. You were feeling like you had a ready to win now and forever WR group. By midseason, you probably had the worst WR lineup in your league.

 

[beef]

I think I like Malik the most. Nothing against MHjr. Malik just has something different going on. Can't quite pinpoint it, but very unique and special about the way he moves. Like everyone else is in slow motion.

 

[JohnnyU]

You meant #2?

 

[Soulfly3]

You meant #2?

Negative, captain. Methinks there are teams with all 3 of them as their #1

 

[-OZ-]

I think I like Malik the most. Nothing against MHjr. Malik just has something different going on. Can't quite pinpoint it, but very unique and special about the way he moves. Like everyone else is in slow motion.

I keep going back and forth between Nabers and odunze. Might just need to trade back from 2 to 4. No idea what I’d want for that deal right now.

 

[BigAl21]

One league that I have the 1.01 and 1.02 and might try to move from 1.01 to 1.03 but would need an absolute massive return. I don’t have a lot of separation among these guys but know that a lot of people are salivating over Marvin Harrison Jr.

Would the 1.03 and a future early to mid 1st be enough for those here that like all 3 WRs in similar tier?

 

[Soulfly3]

You can get more, I guarantee it. MhJ fever is out of control

 

[JohnnyU]

You meant #2?

Negative, captain. Methinks there are teams with all 3 of them as their #1

Lovely. I hope my dynasty teams think that way.

 

[rockaction]

I think he's heading back to Ohio St.

That's the first thing I thought when I saw "Henderson." Don't think he'll be a wise rookie pick this year, folks.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think he's heading back to Ohio St.

That's the first thing I thought when I saw "Henderson." Don't think he'll be a wise rookie pick this year, folks.

wut? I thought we we were way past that?

 

[rockaction]

wut? I thought we we were way past that?

Apparently not.

 

[BigJim®]

I keep going back and forth between Nabers and odunze. Might just need to trade back from 2 to 4. No idea what I’d want for that deal right now.

Why not move from 2 to 3 if you like both and are indifferent… why to 4?

 

[-OZ-]

I keep going back and forth between Nabers and odunze. Might just need to trade back from 2 to 4. No idea what I’d want for that deal right now.

Why not move from 2 to 3 if you like both and are indifferent… why to 4?

Bowers and presumably I’d get more

 

[Soulfly3]

Charean Williams @NFLCharean

A couple of teams I know of have Nabers as the No. 1 receiver in this draft. One team I know has Harrison third at his position.

 

[zamboni]

This is a good discussion.

Most experts are on the MHJ train as a generational talent (a term that I think is way overused), but maybe they're wrong and Nabors, Odunze or one of the other guys will be better NFL talents. It happens - Justin Jefferson was the 5th WR drafted in 2020 and only CeeDee Lamb is in his zip code as a proven NFL receiver.

Usually talent rather than situation matters more for a WR, but I think this year landing spots will have a big effect on their dynasty values over the next handful of years. For example, if MHJ lands in New England and Nabers in Arizona, that could change perceptions of their respective values. Situations can always change, but often not that quickly.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

It really is just a matter of flavour I think.

To me MHJ looks like a polished, nuanced, highly technical NFL receiver with excellent size but moderately less than elite physical ability, particularly with regards to being explosive. He seemed to be double covered on a large amount of plays in college which I think contributed to his lower YAC numbers, but it probably still isn't something he'll ever excel at. He looks like the sort of receiver who would do especially well with a rhythm pocket passer, in a system where the focus is on timing and precision.

Nabers looks like a boom play wrecking ball, he isn't as polished or technical as MHJ (he's obviously still a plus with regards to the routes he runs), but he's a ridiculously sudden and explosive athlete who is a total agent of mayhem when the ball is in his hands. A sizeable percentage of his production came on slot fades, but he obviously has the skillset to win in multiple ways. I think he'd be better suited to a system that values improvisation, and a bit of creative chaos once the pocket breaks down.

For me, Kyler is a better QB for Nabers. And I think Herbert and what the Chargers system should look like under Harbaugh would probably be better suited for MHJ. Both immense talents in quite different ways. For fantasy, I doubt there's much in it. I think Nabers will produce more wow highlights, while MHJ will be more of an accumulator. MHJ's value is probably slightly more insulated due to the name cache and the several years of hype around him, but really if you're picking one of these guys you're interested in them producing for your team, not what they could fetch in a trade.

Odunze is in the next tier down, he's not identical, but a similar, lite version of MHJ for me. I don't see a world where a team would pass on MHJ for Odunze. If you wanted a bigger body type and all 3 were available, MHJ should go before Odunze. There is a world where Odunze goes before Nabers though, if that team is looking for a bigger guy and MHJ has been taken.

That's how I see it right now anyway.

 

[massraider]

Jeremiah latest mock

Harrison--Jets
Nabers--Giants
Odunze--Bears

First, that is a fun mock, and should make many people upset. I recommend.

How you rank them if this was actual order?

 

[zamboni]

Jeremiah latest mock

Harrison--Jets
Nabers--Giants
Odunze--Bears

First, that is a fun mock, and should make many people upset. I recommend.

How you rank them if this was actual order?

I'd be surprised if the Jets were that aggressive given all their needs, but that would change the calculus for MHJ with Garrett Wilson already in the fold.

I'd probably go Nabers, Harrison, Odunze. The upside of the latter two would likely be capped with two youngish alpha WRs alongside them in Garrett and Moore.