Banger
Footballguy
lol, logic is my life...
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Mock Draft with Bloom, Waldman, Bramel at 10am 08/01/2011 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Black
- Start date
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
That and the fact that Dallas D was attrocious last year leading to shootouts etc... Has to improve this year.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
While we're not playing for fabulous cash and prizes, there may or may not be significant bragging rights and/or interesting side bets in play. The twelve of us are taking this pretty seriously as it's likely to generate discussion on Twitter, podcast circuits, and probably a number of message boards and industry outlets along the way.
smackdaddies
Footballguy
I don't think it is the mock that's worthless. Some of the comments however.....If you haven't played in a scoring format like this, you really should take Mark Twain's advice before posting
smackdaddies
Footballguy
Is Jene Bramel really LHUCK? (ray rice pick 1.6)
(sorry, had to go there....)
(sorry, had to go there....)
smackdaddies
Footballguy
Care to bet you will be at pick 24?
PizzaDeliveryGuy
extra sausage
Would love to hear where other participants had him going.
We Tigers
Footballguy
If 0 tight ends are taken by then, maybe. Given the scoring, I expect 2-3 more off the board before Waldman picks again.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I have four TEs in my top tier. I don't know that I'd have drafted one with a later first round pick, but they'd have been considered. Had I had one significantly above the rest, they'd have been a consideration for sure.This draft is going exactly as I'd hoped. We've got a group of owners not afraid to buck established consensus and stay true to the values on the draft board based on the parameters of the league. Four backs, a quarterback, two defensive ends, and a tight end are now off the board in the first eight picks. I honestly think this system allows an argument (depending on your positional rankings) for a RB, TE, DE, DT as your first round pick and very possibly a QB or WR or LB as well. The only positions I'd not consider in the first round are CB and S, though someone might argue that one safety might deserve first round consideration. I had five RBs, two DEs, and a DT with grades close enough to consider as the 1.01. One WR, three DEs, two QBs and a LB were just outside that tier. Had I thought one TE stood out above the other three, he'd have had a 1.01-ish potential grade, too.And you better believe it pained me to take an offensive player in this setup.
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I'll give credit for having the courage of your convictions, but wow. By its nature, a "balanced" scoring league shouldn't have a bunch of Tight Ends taken in the 1st 2 rounds. Therefore, I just can't see Witten being the best pick unless you think Witten is far and away the best TE. If you do, then I suppose it's a good pick.
LHUCKS posted Witten's numbers with Romo in 2009 and extrapolated 2010. They amount to somewhere near 80 catches for 1,000 yards and 4 TDs. In that scoring system and if I was as averse to Gates's foot, I'd still have Clark and Finley above Witten, and I'd be giving consideration to Vernon Davis and Owen Daniels. I just can't see how the better move wouldn't be to wait until the 2nd to take Witten/Clark/Finley/Gates/VD/Daniels and if none were available, you take a Zach Miller or Kellen Winslow in the mid-rounds.
LHUCKS posted Witten's numbers with Romo in 2009 and extrapolated 2010. They amount to somewhere near 80 catches for 1,000 yards and 4 TDs. In that scoring system and if I was as averse to Gates's foot, I'd still have Clark and Finley above Witten, and I'd be giving consideration to Vernon Davis and Owen Daniels. I just can't see how the better move wouldn't be to wait until the 2nd to take Witten/Clark/Finley/Gates/VD/Daniels and if none were available, you take a Zach Miller or Kellen Winslow in the mid-rounds.
FavreAndAwayAnIdiot
Footballguy
It could perhaps move from 'silly' to 'outside the box' if he had, say the 1.5+. But at the top of the draft, you grab a guy who's going to tote the rock on a regular basis, because there are only a couple of them anymore. If you want a "consistent" TE in a featured scoring system, I guarantee you one will be there in the 2nd round.You don't just look at the numbers at 1.1 and say "TE". You just don't.lol, logic is my life...
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smackdaddies
Footballguy
I love the system. Nothing is more boring than playing in multiple leagues all with the same scoring format.
yellowdog
Footballguy
Good one.
squistion
Footballguy
We don't see eye-to-eye very often, but we are on the same page here. As I noted earlier, Kitna favored Witten at the expense of Austin. Also Dez Bryant was a rookie and not fully in the mix all season. Add to this, if Felix Jones is not in some sort of RBBC, he also should see some targets on passing downs. All of these factors suggest to me than Witten is unlikely to put up the numbers he did last year. I may be wrong on this, but this appears to me as an example of looking at the numbers, but not what's behind the numbers.
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5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
I agree.And I'm going to neither attack nor defend Matt's selection, but I think a large part of the negativity toward it can be attributed to the "not-the-kind-of-league-I-play-in-so-it's-unfamiliar-and-therefore-nuts/wrong" groupthink.It's an "oddball" scoring system that pretty much throws most generic, conventional wisdom out the window. I like it.
Maybe all this debate can be solved if someone will just look at the scoring and do a VBD analysis on the top couple picks at each position for this draft. I feel pretty confident that half the people drafting have a VBD up on their computers right now, so it shouldn't be too hard. If Witten is within +/- 5% of the VBD scores for top few RBs, then it's a defensible pick. If he's not, then ... well maybe Waldman was just trying to make a splash.
smackdaddies
Footballguy
If your convinced your strategy is right, then you go for it. This kind of league, your either 1st or it doesn't matter. It's all about the bragging and no one cares about the losers.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
According to the parameters to which I have me DD set, Witten was the #17 overall selection (using Dodds' projections). He's the #1 overall TE, ahead of Gates (by 20 pts, 10 VBD slots overall) and Clark (22 pts, 12 VBD slots). Depending on what you think of Dodds' projections (85-935-7) relative to the top TEs and your feeling about the other positions (see Matt's defense), there's room for movement in the VBD parameters. I won't be drafting strictly by the VBD suggested by Dodds' projections. I'd have the top TE around the VBD 12th overall looking loosely at the list.
GregR_2
Footballguy
This is the kind of league, even in just hearing those observing the draft, that shows those who understand how to determine the value of a player in any league format, versus those who have learned what works in their league but don't truly understand why it works in their league, and so don't understand when it doesn't work.
smackdaddies
Footballguy
exactly. And now 3 TE are off the board by pick 2.4. So perhaps Matt W is crazy like a fox......
Mark Wimer
Moderator
The thread you're remembering from last year was ripping John Norton, and yes, he absolutely crushed that league when it was played out.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I don't have a problem with TE, I just have a problem with the particular TE he chose.
squistion
Footballguy
Which was the same issue I had.
cr8f
Footballguy
sspunisher
Footballguy
What's wrong with some of you guys? How about asking him for his rationale instead of the smartass comments? How old are some of you? I mean damn, as much knowledge as there is in the Shark Pool, unfortunately there's just as much who rather piss in the pool rather than contribute something useful.
The first thing I said to myself when I saw Witten go #1 was WTF. The second thing I did was click on the scoring system. Once I saw the scoring system for TEs, it wasn't that hard to eliminate guys like Gates, Finley (injury concerns), Vernon Davis (QB) and Dallas Clark who has a combination of both due to injury and Manning's questionable health.
Witten is clearly the lowest risk at the TE position. The above mentioned TEs would probably all go in the top 2 or 3 rounds and all of them can single handedly destroy a draft if their injuries or QB situations net them a down year.
Would I draft Witten #1? No, but it's not as ridicilous as some of you make it out to be.
The first thing I said to myself when I saw Witten go #1 was WTF. The second thing I did was click on the scoring system. Once I saw the scoring system for TEs, it wasn't that hard to eliminate guys like Gates, Finley (injury concerns), Vernon Davis (QB) and Dallas Clark who has a combination of both due to injury and Manning's questionable health.
Witten is clearly the lowest risk at the TE position. The above mentioned TEs would probably all go in the top 2 or 3 rounds and all of them can single handedly destroy a draft if their injuries or QB situations net them a down year.
Would I draft Witten #1? No, but it's not as ridicilous as some of you make it out to be.
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Waldman is the best staffer this site has IMO. Due to the scoring system being so heavily skewed towards TE, the pick seems more than fine to me. 90 for 1000 typical Witten numbers equates to 135 for 1500 which is a safe bet to beat all receivers. Go Matt Go. I also believe Waldman feels that the few catches Roy managed to make might go to Mr. Witten.
21 picks in - 5 TEs gone, 4 DEs gone, only 6 RBs gone, and one DT. not your father's FF scoring system. doesn't look like witten would have been there, does it?
Manster
Footballguy
Im not so sure about this.With those guys getting the D's attention, Witten should money in the middle all year.He might not get the TD's, but he'll get plenty of receptions. I think Witten might actually benefit from the situation.AND, Romo spreads the ball around. AND, besides, Witten is a big part of the offense.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
All of which added to the reasoning behind the pick, I'm sure. Not a bad idea.
therokie0070
Footballguy
So far as usual I am loving Jene's picks!! Ray Rice is poised to be the #1 RB in this format, landing Finley in the mid 2nd is robbery if he can play all season!!! Johnson in the third is sick and I think he will out score Jared Allen taken in the first round. Cant wait to see the next couple rounds!!
Also all those giving Waldman crap about taking a TE that has averaged 90 rec and 1000 yards in this format, I will say one thing!!! CAN I JOIN YOUR LEAGUE!!! read the scoring before you make an ### out of your self on the forum!!
Also all those giving Waldman crap about taking a TE that has averaged 90 rec and 1000 yards in this format, I will say one thing!!! CAN I JOIN YOUR LEAGUE!!! read the scoring before you make an ### out of your self on the forum!!
Eastwood
Footballguy
therokie0070
Footballguy
First let me say I hate the Cowboys!!! Witten has had talent around him most of his career and still produces the targets!!! Why you ask because who is going to cover him when everyone is focused on Dez and Austin? Some poor SLB that is way miss matched and thanks to the field being spread out by Dez and Austin he can low crawl 5 yards before a defender contest him!!!
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Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
Would love to be in a league like this. 
2008 - 1145 yards 7 TD, also with Romo.No sense in utilizing an unnecessarily small sample size to prove a point.I came here to post that I thought Witten's 9 TD's were too much of a statistical outlier to be considered for a repeat but decided to check the numbers first and I'm wrong. 4 out of his 7 seasons as a starter and focal point of the offense, he has 6+ TDs. Throw that in with averages of 91 receptions for 1032 yards the last 4 years and I'll be the one over here in the corner with his foot in his mouth. Not sure I would have made that pick but certainly can't slam it considering the scoring format and that level of production over the last 4 seasons.
GregR_2
Footballguy
I transitioned both of my leagues to a format that this is similar to in that it provides more parity across the positions, though we did more of it with more roster spots than with that kind of bump in scoring. 1 QB, 2 RB, 1 flex QB/RB. 4 WR, 2 TE, 1 flex WR/TE. Plus a full 4-3 defense like here, with DE and CB separate from DT and safety. Though we don't have our defensive scoring quite equal to the offense... it's slightly below because I think defensive players are harder to predict than offensive players, so I didn't want them exactly on par. I wanted the offensive/defensive scoring to be a 60/40 ratio.End result was you could really tell the people who understood how to determine value vs those who didn't. Even though I gave the entire league heads up that each position would be closer to RB in value, people stuck with what they'd learned in old leagues. The best RB went for $170 when I had the top player (a QB) valued at just over $100, and the top RB I had being worth around $90 that season.6 years later, after everyone has had enough time in the system to learn through experience what the value should be? Top RBs are $94 and $90 and there are a QB and TE in the $90 range as well. There should be WRs up there as well but the top ones had low priced contracts from before they hit elite that are just ending this year.Would love to be in a league like this.
While there is no way I draft Witten at 1.01, it is far from a ridiculous pick. Matt has his reasons and since he's the one drafting those are the reasons that matter most.
Going into this draft, he obviously felt it was necessary to get a top tier TE. Witten, Gates, Finley, whoever you have at #1 is going to give you an edge every week. He went the safe route and there is nothing wrong with that.
I think because of how balanced every position is, that he didn't get any value with Witten at 1.01. The top TE's are going to be spread out because other owners are going to try and acquire top players at other positions too. Granted, it's completely up in the air at this point, but if Graham, Daniels or even Zach Miller are there at the 4/5 turn, then I think Matt would like to change the 1.01. Obviously depending on how he has those guys projected. I personally don't see a big enough gap between those TE's and Witten to justify Witten at #1. I see a big difference between the top RB's and what RB's are going to be available at the 4/5 turn.
The bottom line is that you can't completely write off a draft after one pick. Especially if the drafter is a respected fantasy football owner.
Going into this draft, he obviously felt it was necessary to get a top tier TE. Witten, Gates, Finley, whoever you have at #1 is going to give you an edge every week. He went the safe route and there is nothing wrong with that.
I think because of how balanced every position is, that he didn't get any value with Witten at 1.01. The top TE's are going to be spread out because other owners are going to try and acquire top players at other positions too. Granted, it's completely up in the air at this point, but if Graham, Daniels or even Zach Miller are there at the 4/5 turn, then I think Matt would like to change the 1.01. Obviously depending on how he has those guys projected. I personally don't see a big enough gap between those TE's and Witten to justify Witten at #1. I see a big difference between the top RB's and what RB's are going to be available at the 4/5 turn.
The bottom line is that you can't completely write off a draft after one pick. Especially if the drafter is a respected fantasy football owner.
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The Comedian
Footballguy
Bump.
Bloom destroyes this league. Drafted 4 of the top scorers.
Witten ended up being TE5 for Waldman - only finished 153 points behind Gronk! lol
Bloom destroyes this league. Drafted 4 of the top scorers.
Witten ended up being TE5 for Waldman - only finished 153 points behind Gronk! lol
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
Sigmund Bloom.....absolutely destroyed this league.... lol'The Comedian said:
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