My Top 5 WRs in the 2024 class, plus notes on 3 more (2 Viewers)

[JohnnyU]

I’m starting to think there is a 3-way tie for 4th. Thomas, Franklin and McConkey. I like McConkey that much. Landing spots could matter.

 

[menobrown]

Would Nabers and Odunze have ranked higher than last year’s rookie class?

For me yes and not remotely close, not saying that out of exaggeration or after the fact. Less sure it would have played out that way, one thing I learned last off-season is the JSN hive is strong.

MHJ vs Bijan would have been one heck of a debate.

I agree with most of them, but JSN prior to the 2023 season would have been in the discussion with Nabers and Odunze and may be long term as well.

I would stress the "for me" part of my reply. You kind of belong to the JSN hive I was referring.

This is not an "I told you so" but I recall exchanges we had before the draft last year when I would say things here like Gibbs is clearly the #2 player in this draft and you'd tell me I was wrong and/or should be considering JSN. You've always been higher on JSN then me, I simply did not grade him out as high of a player or really very close then I consider Rome or Nabers and that is in no way after the fact. I thought he was ok, but he'd have been WR4 in this draft for me and a tier down.

 

[JohnnyU]

Nabers AND Odunze are head and shoulders above JSN for me.

He'd be the #4 in this draft, safely

Lockett a cap casualty this offseason?

 

[JohnnyU]

Would Nabers and Odunze have ranked higher than last year’s rookie class?

For me yes and not remotely close, not saying that out of exaggeration or after the fact. Less sure it would have played out that way, one thing I learned last off-season is the JSN hive is strong.

MHJ vs Bijan would have been one heck of a debate.

I agree with most of them, but JSN prior to the 2023 season would have been in the discussion with Nabers and Odunze and may be long term as well.

I would stress the "for me" part of my reply. You kind of belong to the JSN hive I was referring.

This is not an "I told you so" but I recall exchanges we had before the draft last year when I would say things here like Gibbs is clearly the #2 player in this draft and you'd tell me I was wrong and/or should be considering JSN. You've always been higher on JSN then me, I simply did not grade him out as high of a player or really very close then I consider Rome or Nabers and that is in no way after the fact. I thought he was ok, but he'd have been WR4 in this draft for me and a tier down.

I ended up trading for Gibbs in one of the league where I drafted JSN #2. Lockett a cap casualty?

 

[menobrown]

Would Nabers and Odunze have ranked higher than last year’s rookie class?

For me yes and not remotely close, not saying that out of exaggeration or after the fact. Less sure it would have played out that way, one thing I learned last off-season is the JSN hive is strong.

MHJ vs Bijan would have been one heck of a debate.

I agree with most of them, but JSN prior to the 2023 season would have been in the discussion with Nabers and Odunze and may be long term as well.

I would stress the "for me" part of my reply. You kind of belong to the JSN hive I was referring.

This is not an "I told you so" but I recall exchanges we had before the draft last year when I would say things here like Gibbs is clearly the #2 player in this draft and you'd tell me I was wrong and/or should be considering JSN. You've always been higher on JSN then me, I simply did not grade him out as high of a player or really very close then I consider Rome or Nabers and that is in no way after the fact. I thought he was ok, but he'd have been WR4 in this draft for me and a tier down.

I ended up trading for Gibbs in one of the league where I drafted JSN #2. Lockett a cap casualty?

Good on you for getting Gibbs, you got him as much as I do in dynasty.

Don't know on Lockett, I tend to think he will stick another year due to what is owed to him as I understand his contract and the cap jumping up so much makes him a lot easier to keep. Never will say never with a new staff and how they view him though.

FWIW it's an imperfect guide to be sure but I looked up ADP of an FFPC BB tournament from January/February of 2023 and comped them to same tournament ADP for the month of February in 2024.

Marvin is WR14(player 27), Nabers is WR27(49) and Odunze is WR36(75).

JSN in a similar timeframe last year was WR38(84).

So WR4 but very close to Odunze, trailing the other two by a decent gap.

I totally accept this is an imperfect guide for a dynasty startup, but I think it's somewhat relative to where people were with them in a similar timeframe.

 

[travdogg]

Nabers AND Odunze are head and shoulders above JSN for me.

He'd be the #4 in this draft, safely

100% agree about them vs JSN.

I'd also put McConkey on par with someone like Addison from last year's draft. Maybe Franklin/Thomas on the Johnston level.

I really think Nabers is being underrated. I like him quite a bit more than Odunze, and see him as similar to a young OBJ. From a pure talent perspective, I think he's easily a top-5 overall player in this class. I think he should be the 1st LSU player drafted, and he deserves a ton of credit for Jayden Daniels stats.

 

[JohnnyU]

If Troy Frankliin goes to KC will he jump Odunze at 1.3?

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Not if he's taken 25 picks later, no.

 

[JohnnyU]

Not if he's taken 25 picks later, no.

You never know, someone could be in love with idea of taking Franklin in that scenario, especially if either of Odunze goes to a crappy spot with a crappy QB.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Someone could fall in love with CEH over Taylor as well mate, doesn't mean it's a good idea.

 

[menobrown]

If Troy Frankliin goes to KC will he jump Odunze at 1.3?

No

 

[JohnnyU]

Someone could fall in love with CEH over Taylor as well mate, doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Oh I agree with that. I was a beneficiary of Taylor because of that.

 

[JohnnyU]

If Troy Frankliin goes to KC will he jump Odunze at 1.3?

No

What if Nabers or Odunze goes to NE? That won't happen, but just sayin'.

edit: or could it? Draft prospect Rome Odunze says ‘it would be awesome' to play for Patriots

 

[menobrown]

If Troy Frankliin goes to KC will he jump Odunze at 1.3?

No

What if Nabers or Odunze goes to NE? That won't happen, but just sayin'.

Still a hard no. See a massive disparity in talent and regarding NE while yes they need a QB I think it’s time to start burying the preconceived notions we’ve built up about NE and it being a place where high drafted WR’s go to die.

 

[JohnnyU]

If Troy Frankliin goes to KC will he jump Odunze at 1.3?

No

What if Nabers or Odunze goes to NE? That won't happen, but just sayin'.

Still a hard no. See a massive disparity in talent and regarding NE while yes they need a QB I think it’s time to start burying the preconceived notions we’ve built up about NE and it being a place where high drafted WR’s go to die.

I'll continue to think that way until they solve their QB issues. They aren't getting a top end WR and QB in the same draft most likely.

 

[Lansdowne]

If Troy Frankliin goes to KC will he jump Odunze at 1.3?

KC still has Kelce and Rice (who I don’t think Franklin immediately takes targets from). Odunze would need to go to the Ravens for me to fade him enough to want Franklin before him.

 

[titusbramble]

If Troy Frankliin goes to KC will he jump Odunze at 1.3?

No. Bet on talent over landing spot, but it might solidify him at WR4

 

[Chaos34]

I’m starting to think there is a 3-way tie for 4th. Thomas, Franklin and McConkey. I like McConkey that much. Landing spots could matter.

I have no problem with McConkey in a tier with Franklin and Thomas and possibly atop the tier. I don't read Faust's links, but he does heavy lifting here, so respect for that. I just watch them play when I have the time. McConkey has an interesting trait and again, I'm not sure if it translates well. I've watched him against top corners and they stick with him better than much of the reporting. But this trait... he seems a little sluggish with his first couple steps after the snap... but then he flashes very sudden acceleration. Maybe I'm seeing things, but it's different. Anyway it works best from the slot, and he seems potentially really good. I don't love the Kupp or Lockett comps but there's a bit of them in his game. Edelman and Puka-ish too.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

McConkey needs to be bumped up IMO. Slot WR is super important. It's his hands that have me most worried. They aren't top tier. Everything else screams 800-1200 yards per year.

Meanwhole Odunze is cutting off routes constantly. He will go in the first 3 taken, but I'd be scared to draft him.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

McConkey needs to be bumped up IMO. Slot WR is super important. It's his hands that have me most worried. They aren't top tier. Everything else screams 800-1200 yards per year.

Meanwhole Odunze is cutting off routes constantly. He will go in the first 3 taken, but I'd be scared to draft him.

I agree. I'm a big fan of McConkey depending on his landing spot. If he's taken by KC or the Chargers (assuming Williams is a cap cut), the sky's the limit.

 

[BigTex]

Thanks @JohnnyU
One thing I can't stand this time of year is the discomfort of all these writers I greatly respect, collectively claiming like 10 WRs are special future stars.
Idk which is which but, ya watch the NFL long enough and you know there won't be ten great rookie WRs.

I'm more fascinated by this pack of receivers than any draft in recent memory. I have this voice telling me the class is overrated. I watched more college ball last season than any in recent memory too. I think it's pretty fair to go with a top 4/5 rather than a top 3. This thinking is including Thomas (4) and Franklin (5). But I like Thomas a lot more than Franklin. I mostly settle in for west coast games and saw a bunch of Franklin. I just... not so sure here. He's good but does it translate? Not sure.

I have to note a note I made watching Texas play. Sheesh those two got open so easily it was impressive. Adonai did it with his feet and precision route running. Then he caught everything thrown his way. I guess he had a drop but I missed it. Worthy did it with speed, lots of speed, but his routes are crisp, his feet are really good, and he's just a problem. He did have some drops, but he also ran deeper routes with lower expectations. I prefer Worthy. That explosive speed matters. It translates. Bigger Tank Dell perhaps.

BUT

After doing this for many years and being so wrong so often, I don't really care about the combine OR THE DRAFT. We're just a bunch of addicts who miss our fix. I care about internal reports from late OTAs to early training camp. What are coaches telling beat writers now that the players are putting in work? Last year they were telling us very early that Puka and Tank were standing out. Fantasy experts and draftniks this time of year? Not too interested. I appreciate the steady flow of opinions, but with the tiniest grain of salt.

I agree with everything after the “BUT” I figured this out a few years ago as I acknowledged the FLUFF of FF which you correctly stated we just need our fix.

I have a pre-combine ranking based strictly on talent, then I make notes on who’s turning heads in the Senior Bowl, Shine Bowl, etc…..

There are a few metrics at the Combine that have shown some correlations of NFL success then draft position and then listen to what the coaches say after they draft a player and during camp.

I do this and I always kill my drafts,

Tex

 

[Chaos34]

Thanks @JohnnyU
One thing I can't stand this time of year is the discomfort of all these writers I greatly respect, collectively claiming like 10 WRs are special future stars.
Idk which is which but, ya watch the NFL long enough and you know there won't be ten great rookie WRs.

I'm more fascinated by this pack of receivers than any draft in recent memory. I have this voice telling me the class is overrated. I watched more college ball last season than any in recent memory too. I think it's pretty fair to go with a top 4/5 rather than a top 3. This thinking is including Thomas (4) and Franklin (5). But I like Thomas a lot more than Franklin. I mostly settle in for west coast games and saw a bunch of Franklin. I just... not so sure here. He's good but does it translate? Not sure.

I have to note a note I made watching Texas play. Sheesh those two got open so easily it was impressive. Adonai did it with his feet and precision route running. Then he caught everything thrown his way. I guess he had a drop but I missed it. Worthy did it with speed, lots of speed, but his routes are crisp, his feet are really good, and he's just a problem. He did have some drops, but he also ran deeper routes with lower expectations. I prefer Worthy. That explosive speed matters. It translates. Bigger Tank Dell perhaps.

BUT

After doing this for many years and being so wrong so often, I don't really care about the combine OR THE DRAFT. We're just a bunch of addicts who miss our fix. I care about internal reports from late OTAs to early training camp. What are coaches telling beat writers now that the players are putting in work? Last year they were telling us very early that Puka and Tank were standing out. Fantasy experts and draftniks this time of year? Not too interested. I appreciate the steady flow of opinions, but with the tiniest grain of salt.

I agree with everything after the “BUT” I figured this out a few years ago as I acknowledged the FLUFF of FF which you correctly stated we just need our fix.

I have a pre-combine ranking based strictly on talent, then I make notes on who’s turning heads in the Senior Bowl, Shine Bowl, etc…..

There are a few metrics at the Combine that have shown some correlations of NFL success then draft position and then listen to what the coaches say after they draft a player and during camp.

I do this and I always kill my drafts,

Tex

I quit FF in 2015. Started playing again after 6 years off. 2 and 3 years ago I was listening to and reading all the fantasy information I could get. I drafted poorly. Last year I didn't have the stomach for 20 or more experts/influencers seeking attention. 20 some years ago I wrote camp battles articles for FFToday. Last year I tuned out all the fantasy noise and just enjoyed following beat writers. I used Sigmund Bloom's list on twitter. All four teams I drafted finished 1st or 2nd in the regular season. 2 were top scoring in the league. I didn't win a league, but I lost two championship games. I'm old and tired of hearing debates and disagreement. A good beat writer isn't seeking attention by arguing this and that. He's just letting the fans of the team he covers know what he's seeing first hand and hearing from his inside sources. It could be a cheat code, or I could just be lazy. It landed me on many players who destroyed their adps. We'll see what happens with a 2 year sample with this approach.

 

[Gatorade]

Thanks @JohnnyU
One thing I can't stand this time of year is the discomfort of all these writers I greatly respect, collectively claiming like 10 WRs are special future stars.
Idk which is which but, ya watch the NFL long enough and you know there won't be ten great rookie WRs.

I'm more fascinated by this pack of receivers than any draft in recent memory. I have this voice telling me the class is overrated. I watched more college ball last season than any in recent memory too. I think it's pretty fair to go with a top 4/5 rather than a top 3. This thinking is including Thomas (4) and Franklin (5). But I like Thomas a lot more than Franklin. I mostly settle in for west coast games and saw a bunch of Franklin. I just... not so sure here. He's good but does it translate? Not sure.

I have to note a note I made watching Texas play. Sheesh those two got open so easily it was impressive. Adonai did it with his feet and precision route running. Then he caught everything thrown his way. I guess he had a drop but I missed it. Worthy did it with speed, lots of speed, but his routes are crisp, his feet are really good, and he's just a problem. He did have some drops, but he also ran deeper routes with lower expectations. I prefer Worthy. That explosive speed matters. It translates. Bigger Tank Dell perhaps.

BUT

After doing this for many years and being so wrong so often, I don't really care about the combine OR THE DRAFT. We're just a bunch of addicts who miss our fix. I care about internal reports from late OTAs to early training camp. What are coaches telling beat writers now that the players are putting in work? Last year they were telling us very early that Puka and Tank were standing out. Fantasy experts and draftniks this time of year? Not too interested. I appreciate the steady flow of opinions, but with the tiniest grain of salt.

I agree with everything after the “BUT” I figured this out a few years ago as I acknowledged the FLUFF of FF which you correctly stated we just need our fix.

I have a pre-combine ranking based strictly on talent, then I make notes on who’s turning heads in the Senior Bowl, Shine Bowl, etc…..

There are a few metrics at the Combine that have shown some correlations of NFL success then draft position and then listen to what the coaches say after they draft a player and during camp.

I do this and I always kill my drafts,

Tex

I quit FF in 2015. Started playing again after 6 years off. 2 and 3 years ago I was listening to and reading all the fantasy information I could get. I drafted poorly. Last year I didn't have the stomach for 20 or more experts/influencers seeking attention. 20 some years ago I wrote camp battles articles for FFToday. Last year I tuned out all the fantasy noise and just enjoyed following beat writers. I used Sigmund Bloom's list on twitter. All four teams I drafted finished 1st or 2nd in the regular season. 2 were top scoring in the league. I didn't win a league, but I lost two championship games. I'm old and tired of hearing debates and disagreement. A good beat writer isn't seeking attention by arguing this and that. He's just letting the fans of the team he covers know what he's seeing first hand and hearing from his inside sources. It could be a cheat code, or I could just be lazy. It landed me on many players who destroyed their adps. We'll see what happens with a 2 year sample with this approach.

Similar timeline for stopping FF and starting back up. Interesting take which I might try to follow. So far this off season has been information overload, especially since I don't follow college football. Maybe I will take a break until after the NFL draft so I don't get too confused

 

[Grid71]

Nabers AND Odunze are head and shoulders above JSN for me.

He'd be the #4 in this draft, safely

Easy to say after JSN rookie year. A little harder before if we’re being honest. Not saying you aren't being honest. You may very well have felt that way before the 2023 season.

JSN is a slot receiver which is why I agree with Soulfly. Most teams would draft an elite MHJ Odunze or Nabers over an elite slot WR.

For a team set at X and Y with a dud in the slot, take JSN all day.

 

[Soulfly3]

PFF COMBINED CONSENSUS RANKING OF ALL STABLE METRICS SINCE 2022

Rank Wide receiver

1 Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky
2 Tahj Washington, USC
3 Troy Franklin, Oregon
4 Malik Nabers, LSU
5 Jamari Thrash, Lousiville
6 Rome Odunze, Washington
7 Roman Wilson, Michigan
8 Joshua Cephus, UTSA
9 Malik Washington, Virginia
10 Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

 

[kface]

PFF COMBINED CONSENSUS RANKING OF ALL STABLE METRICS SINCE 2022

Rank Wide receiver

1 Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky
2 Tahj Washington, USC
3 Troy Franklin, Oregon
4 Malik Nabers, LSU
5 Jamari Thrash, Lousiville
6 Rome Odunze, Washington
7 Roman Wilson, Michigan
8 Joshua Cephus, UTSA
9 Malik Washington, Virginia
10 Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

This is very interesting...thanks for the heads up

 

[Chaos34]

PFF COMBINED CONSENSUS RANKING OF ALL STABLE METRICS SINCE 2022

Rank Wide receiver

1 Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky
2 Tahj Washington, USC
3 Troy Franklin, Oregon
4 Malik Nabers, LSU
5 Jamari Thrash, Lousiville
6 Rome Odunze, Washington
7 Roman Wilson, Michigan
8 Joshua Cephus, UTSA
9 Malik Washington, Virginia
10 Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

This is very interesting...thanks for the heads up

It's not interesting to me. PFF's consensus of stable metrics produces a nonsensical list. This is why I (try to) filter out the noise. Harrison and Nabers top their WR rankings as they should.

From PFF

WKU’s Malachi Corley makes a number of appearances across these top-10s in stable metrics for this class but isn’t a highly-ranked receiver on the PFF big board. Corley currently comes in as the 20th-ranked receiver for PFF but performed well against Conference-USA

Also from PFF

All three top-ranked wide receivers on the PFF big board finish among the top five in combined receiving grade over the past two seasons. Marvin Harrison Jr. leads the way as PFF’s top-ranked wide receiver, followed by Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze.

Noise.

 

[Big Nate]

Keon is this crop's bust, imo.

This type of comment doesn't really help, even if he ends up a bust. I will say this, past busts doesn't mean any future guy will bust. Just because there is a past bust doesn't guarantee a future bust.

Maybe some people are just looking for a bust and then won't ever draft a guy. At some point, if Keon keeps dropping he's going to be worth the pick and taking the chance.

Don't ever hate a player, but you can hate the ADP. I'm keeping an open mind on Keon and will see what happens over the next 2 months.


Why do I need to think a player is a bust right now? Why have that mindset on anyone?

 

[Lansdowne]

Thanks @JohnnyU
One thing I can't stand this time of year is the discomfort of all these writers I greatly respect, collectively claiming like 10 WRs are special future stars.
Idk which is which but, ya watch the NFL long enough and you know there won't be ten great rookie WRs.

I'm more fascinated by this pack of receivers than any draft in recent memory. I have this voice telling me the class is overrated. I watched more college ball last season than any in recent memory too. I think it's pretty fair to go with a top 4/5 rather than a top 3. This thinking is including Thomas (4) and Franklin (5). But I like Thomas a lot more than Franklin. I mostly settle in for west coast games and saw a bunch of Franklin. I just... not so sure here. He's good but does it translate? Not sure.

I have to note a note I made watching Texas play. Sheesh those two got open so easily it was impressive. Adonai did it with his feet and precision route running. Then he caught everything thrown his way. I guess he had a drop but I missed it. Worthy did it with speed, lots of speed, but his routes are crisp, his feet are really good, and he's just a problem. He did have some drops, but he also ran deeper routes with lower expectations. I prefer Worthy. That explosive speed matters. It translates. Bigger Tank Dell perhaps.

BUT

After doing this for many years and being so wrong so often, I don't really care about the combine OR THE DRAFT. We're just a bunch of addicts who miss our fix. I care about internal reports from late OTAs to early training camp. What are coaches telling beat writers now that the players are putting in work? Last year they were telling us very early that Puka and Tank were standing out. Fantasy experts and draftniks this time of year? Not too interested. I appreciate the steady flow of opinions, but with the tiniest grain of salt.

I agree with everything after the “BUT” I figured this out a few years ago as I acknowledged the FLUFF of FF which you correctly stated we just need our fix.

I have a pre-combine ranking based strictly on talent, then I make notes on who’s turning heads in the Senior Bowl, Shine Bowl, etc…..

There are a few metrics at the Combine that have shown some correlations of NFL success then draft position and then listen to what the coaches say after they draft a player and during camp.

I do this and I always kill my drafts,

Tex

I quit FF in 2015. Started playing again after 6 years off. 2 and 3 years ago I was listening to and reading all the fantasy information I could get. I drafted poorly. Last year I didn't have the stomach for 20 or more experts/influencers seeking attention. 20 some years ago I wrote camp battles articles for FFToday. Last year I tuned out all the fantasy noise and just enjoyed following beat writers. I used Sigmund Bloom's list on twitter. All four teams I drafted finished 1st or 2nd in the regular season. 2 were top scoring in the league. I didn't win a league, but I lost two championship games. I'm old and tired of hearing debates and disagreement. A good beat writer isn't seeking attention by arguing this and that. He's just letting the fans of the team he covers know what he's seeing first hand and hearing from his inside sources. It could be a cheat code, or I could just be lazy. It landed me on many players who destroyed their adps. We'll see what happens with a 2 year sample with this approach.

Greetings fellow FFT alum! I had been following Bloom for years on Twitter before I decided to come here to these forums. My timeline is almost exactly like yours, except I stopped a year earlier than you and then came back 3 years ago. The game has changed quite a bit and I feel like there’s information overload these days. It’s a skill in itself just filtering out the noise.

 

[Big Nate]

Thanks @JohnnyU
One thing I can't stand this time of year is the discomfort of all these writers I greatly respect, collectively claiming like 10 WRs are special future stars.
Idk which is which but, ya watch the NFL long enough and you know there won't be ten great rookie WRs.

Each draft/year is different and saying 10 are "future special stars" is a bit of an exaggeration even if I know what you are trying to get at. So your comment got me wanting to look back.
The 22 draft had a lot of very good WRs and some may still hit it big. Maybe it wasn't 10 (not yet) but there are a good solid number.

The 2021 draft has 5 top talents and a couple more. Again not 10 but its a good class.

The 2020 draft has 5.

The 2019 has 7.

It is subjective but if you end up at least a solid WR2 that is a hit in dynasty, especially as you can get some of these guys in your 2nd round.

This looks to be a very deep WRs class. Moreover the WRs coming out of college are much more well developed now than 8-10 years ago. Much more ready to compete and get playing time right out of the gates.

Don't be bothered about the "hype" - just be happy there is a lot of WR depth this year and maybe its a year where 7-8 hit it big? If it ends up 10 then great - why make it a negative or be bothered?

 

[JohnnyU]

Thanks @JohnnyU
One thing I can't stand this time of year is the discomfort of all these writers I greatly respect, collectively claiming like 10 WRs are special future stars.
Idk which is which but, ya watch the NFL long enough and you know there won't be ten great rookie WRs.

Each draft/year is different and saying 10 are "future special stars" is a bit of an exaggeration even if I know what you are trying to get at. So your comment got me wanting to look back.
The 22 draft had a lot of very good WRs and some may still hit it big. Maybe it wasn't 10 (not yet) but there are a good solid number.

The 2021 draft has 5 top talents and a couple more. Again not 10 but its a good class.

The 2020 draft has 5.

The 2019 has 7.

It is subjective but if you end up at least a solid WR2 that is a hit in dynasty, especially as you can get some of these guys in your 2nd round.

This looks to be a very deep WRs class. Moreover the WRs coming out of college are much more well developed now than 8-10 years ago. Much more ready to compete and get playing time right out of the gates.

Don't be bothered about the "hype" - just be happy there is a lot of WR depth this year and maybe its a year where 7-8 hit it big? If it ends up 10 then great - why make it a negative or be bothered?

I think anytime you have lists before the NFL draft there are going to be a lot more hope than there is after the NFL draft. Yes, talent comes first, but landing spots tend to sour people on WRs by the time their rookie drafts are in play after the NFL draft. Not a WR, but someone like Israel Abanikanda is worthless to everyone except the Breece Hall owner, unless you're playing the injury what if game. He couldn't have landed in a worst spot and I was very high on him entering the NFL draft last year.

 

[Soulfly3]

Keon is this crop's bust, imo.

This type of comment doesn't really help, even if he ends up a bust. I will say this, past busts doesn't mean any future guy will bust. Just because there is a past bust doesn't guarantee a future bust.

Maybe some people are just looking for a bust and then won't ever draft a guy. At some point, if Keon keeps dropping he's going to be worth the pick and taking the chance.

Don't ever hate a player, but you can hate the ADP. I'm keeping an open mind on Keon and will see what happens over the next 2 months.


Why do I need to think a player is a bust right now? Why have that mindset on anyone?

I've watched him play. Studied him. I don't think his characteristics are going to pan out in the NFL. I've discussed him in a bit more detail on this forum... He's an avoid for me until the late 2nd of rookie drafts.

Ill draft him if the price is right, but my price is pennies on the dollar, so he's basically off my sheet. He's not getting back to me

 

[Big Nate]

Thanks @JohnnyU
One thing I can't stand this time of year is the discomfort of all these writers I greatly respect, collectively claiming like 10 WRs are special future stars.
Idk which is which but, ya watch the NFL long enough and you know there won't be ten great rookie WRs.

I'm more fascinated by this pack of receivers than any draft in recent memory. I have this voice telling me the class is overrated. I watched more college ball last season than any in recent memory too. I think it's pretty fair to go with a top 4/5 rather than a top 3. This thinking is including Thomas (4) and Franklin (5). But I like Thomas a lot more than Franklin. I mostly settle in for west coast games and saw a bunch of Franklin. I just... not so sure here. He's good but does it translate? Not sure.

I have to note a note I made watching Texas play. Sheesh those two got open so easily it was impressive. Adonai did it with his feet and precision route running. Then he caught everything thrown his way. I guess he had a drop but I missed it. Worthy did it with speed, lots of speed, but his routes are crisp, his feet are really good, and he's just a problem. He did have some drops, but he also ran deeper routes with lower expectations. I prefer Worthy. That explosive speed matters. It translates. Bigger Tank Dell perhaps.

BUT

After doing this for many years and being so wrong so often, I don't really care about the combine OR THE DRAFT. We're just a bunch of addicts who miss our fix. I care about internal reports from late OTAs to early training camp. What are coaches telling beat writers now that the players are putting in work? Last year they were telling us very early that Puka and Tank were standing out. Fantasy experts and draftniks this time of year? Not too interested. I appreciate the steady flow of opinions, but with the tiniest grain of salt.

I agree with everything after the “BUT” I figured this out a few years ago as I acknowledged the FLUFF of FF which you correctly stated we just need our fix.

I have a pre-combine ranking based strictly on talent, then I make notes on who’s turning heads in the Senior Bowl, Shine Bowl, etc…..

There are a few metrics at the Combine that have shown some correlations of NFL success then draft position and then listen to what the coaches say after they draft a player and during camp.

I do this and I always kill my drafts,

Tex

I quit FF in 2015. Started playing again after 6 years off. 2 and 3 years ago I was listening to and reading all the fantasy information I could get. I drafted poorly. Last year I didn't have the stomach for 20 or more experts/influencers seeking attention. 20 some years ago I wrote camp battles articles for FFToday. Last year I tuned out all the fantasy noise and just enjoyed following beat writers. I used Sigmund Bloom's list on twitter. All four teams I drafted finished 1st or 2nd in the regular season. 2 were top scoring in the league. I didn't win a league, but I lost two championship games. I'm old and tired of hearing debates and disagreement. A good beat writer isn't seeking attention by arguing this and that. He's just letting the fans of the team he covers know what he's seeing first hand and hearing from his inside sources. It could be a cheat code, or I could just be lazy. It landed me on many players who destroyed their adps. We'll see what happens with a 2 year sample with this approach.

It is a fair point as some fantasy analyst "experts" are really just content creators needing hits. Hot takes and lots of noise get hits - doesn't mean they are right. Some are some aren't - I just keep an open mind and don't get caught up swinging to far one way or the other.

 

[Soulfly3]

Daniel Jeremiah just released his 2.0.

MHJ, Odunze, Nabers are his top 3 in that order.

Followed by: Brian Thomas Jr, Adonai, Coleman, Franklin, Worthy, McConkey, Corley

In that order.

 

[travdogg]

Daniel Jeremiah just released his 2.0.

MHJ, Odunze, Nabers are his top 3 in that order.

Followed by: Brian Thomas Jr, Adonai, Coleman, Franklin, Worthy, McConkey, Corley

In that order.

Adonai Mitchell over Ladd McConkey is interesting to me, just because Georgia's coaches clearly didn't feel Mitchell was better and that's why he had to transfer to Texas.

 

[Soulfly3]

Daniel Jeremiah just released his 2.0.

MHJ, Odunze, Nabers are his top 3 in that order.

Followed by: Brian Thomas Jr, Adonai, Coleman, Franklin, Worthy, McConkey, Corley

In that order.

Adonai Mitchell over Ladd McConkey is interesting to me, just because Georgia's coaches clearly didn't feel Mitchell was better and that's why he had to transfer to Texas.

Coleman ahead of any of those guys behind him makes my tummy swirl

 

[beef]

I got a lot of catching up to do on this year's class, but how freaking awesome that the 3rd WR off the board (assuming it's Odunze) would be a pretty nice 1st WR off the board in a lot of years.

 

[JohnnyU]

The two players I'm most interested in their performance at the combine are Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell. I believe the combine can help.....or hurt....either.

 

[Biabreakable]

Keon is this crop's bust, imo.

This type of comment doesn't really help, even if he ends up a bust. I will say this, past busts doesn't mean any future guy will bust. Just because there is a past bust doesn't guarantee a future bust.

Maybe some people are just looking for a bust and then won't ever draft a guy. At some point, if Keon keeps dropping he's going to be worth the pick and taking the chance.

Don't ever hate a player, but you can hate the ADP. I'm keeping an open mind on Keon and will see what happens over the next 2 months.


Why do I need to think a player is a bust right now? Why have that mindset on anyone?

I think its a good idea to identify players who have traits or data points that suggest their game won't translate to the next level.

IIRC I saw some really poor yards per route run data for this player that I think is a concern and something to consider when comparing him to other WR.

I wouldn't go so far as to declare a player a future bust or do not draft, I agree with your point about keeping an open mind but things like that will push players down my board. You need to pay attention to the good and the bad here.

 

[Max Power]

I’m starting to think there is a 3-way tie for 4th. Thomas, Franklin and McConkey. I like McConkey that much. Landing spots could matter.

I had Thomas as my #4 with potential wiggle room, but he's now locked there.

My #5 was reserved for whoever KC drafted in the first two rounds, but after the combine I think it's McConkey.

Franklin was pretty disappointing to me. He didn't stand out and a lot of the other WRs looked good.

 

[JohnnyU]

I’m starting to think there is a 3-way tie for 4th. Thomas, Franklin and McConkey. I like McConkey that much. Landing spots could matter.

I had Thomas as my #4 with potential wiggle room, but he's now locked there.

My #5 was reserved for whoever KC drafted in the first two rounds, but after the combine I think it's McConkey.

Franklin was pretty disappointing to me. He didn't stand out and a lot of the other WRs looked good.

Keep the underwear performances in perspective. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the Franklin workout, but he did run a 4.41. Had some drops, so what?. Having said that, I like McConkey and Thomas Jr a lot.

 

[Max Power]

I’m starting to think there is a 3-way tie for 4th. Thomas, Franklin and McConkey. I like McConkey that much. Landing spots could matter.

I had Thomas as my #4 with potential wiggle room, but he's now locked there.

My #5 was reserved for whoever KC drafted in the first two rounds, but after the combine I think it's McConkey.

Franklin was pretty disappointing to me. He didn't stand out and a lot of the other WRs looked good.

Keep the underwear performances in perspective. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the Franklin workout, but he did run a 4.41. Had some drops, so what?. Having said that, I like McConkey and Thomas Jr a lot.

Franklin looked very skinny and his gauntlet might have been the ugliest of the day. He was fading away from each throw, not looking confident or smooth.

 

[JohnnyU]

I’m starting to think there is a 3-way tie for 4th. Thomas, Franklin and McConkey. I like McConkey that much. Landing spots could matter.

I had Thomas as my #4 with potential wiggle room, but he's now locked there.

My #5 was reserved for whoever KC drafted in the first two rounds, but after the combine I think it's McConkey.

Franklin was pretty disappointing to me. He didn't stand out and a lot of the other WRs looked good.

Keep the underwear performances in perspective. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the Franklin workout, but he did run a 4.41. Had some drops, so what?. Having said that, I like McConkey and Thomas Jr a lot.

Franklin looked very skinny and his gauntlet might have been the ugliest of the day. He was fading away from each throw, not looking confident or smooth.

I believe I would concentrate more on his body of work in college than one day at the combine. He ran fast enough. Worthy is also skinny. I worry less about size in today's NFL than I did a decade ago. I passed on some very good WRs because I was looking at size. Instead having the old school mentality of those 6'3" 220 lbs. guys, which quite frankly don't matter as much as they used to.

 

[Chaos34]

I believe I would concentrate more on his body of work in college than one day at the combine. He ran fast enough. Worthy is also skinny. I worry less about size in today's NFL than I did a decade ago. I passed on some very good WRs because I was looking at size. Instead having the old school mentality of those 6'3" 220 lbs. guys, which quite frankly don't matter as much as they used to.

Yup. I think the league missed out on a few DeSean Jackson's seeking big tall basketball player WRs and has learned its lesson. Size is overrated. Football talent is more important.

 

[Max Power]

I’m starting to think there is a 3-way tie for 4th. Thomas, Franklin and McConkey. I like McConkey that much. Landing spots could matter.

I had Thomas as my #4 with potential wiggle room, but he's now locked there.

My #5 was reserved for whoever KC drafted in the first two rounds, but after the combine I think it's McConkey.

Franklin was pretty disappointing to me. He didn't stand out and a lot of the other WRs looked good.

Keep the underwear performances in perspective. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the Franklin workout, but he did run a 4.41. Had some drops, so what?. Having said that, I like McConkey and Thomas Jr a lot.

Franklin looked very skinny and his gauntlet might have been the ugliest of the day. He was fading away from each throw, not looking confident or smooth.

I believe I would concentrate more on his body of work in college than one day at the combine. He ran fast enough. Worthy is also skinny. I worry less about size in today's NFL than I did a decade ago. I passed on some very good WRs because I was looking at size. Instead having the old school mentality of those 6'3" 220 lbs. guys, which quite frankly don't matter as much as they used to.

I do like Franklin. I was thinking about him at 5. It's just such a tight tier at that point and I think at the end of the day it's going to boil down to how teams want to use the guys drafted in rds 2 and 3 that make the biggest difference in final WR rankings.