Navigating the 1st Round Mine Field (2 Viewers)

[switz]

Westy, didn't he finish in the top 3 the last 2 years? Even with a injured QB at times. Whether or not his team was in a playoff race? He is also first or second in weekly consistantcy and his cuff is real cheap

In PPR yes, but notice I was referring to non-PPR

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Not when you can get similar production from a 2nd or 3rd rounder

Barber gets many of his points from TD's, he isn't very consistant on a weekly basis, but he finished RB7 last year and his carries will go up between a little and a lot. The only thing you seem to be predicting is injury. Did Quan get traded to the Cowboys? They are and were a passing team so that point is kinda????

Barber finished 7th, but his point totals in an average year would have put him lower (11th). I don't see him improving his point totals... and have seen him recently going 4th and 5th in the first round.

Who do you think are the risks, since you disagree with mine?

 

[texasheat]

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Not when you can get similar production from a 2nd or 3rd rounder

here - If Brady comes down to earth at all you will be able to get similar production a couple rounds later.

 

[I Am Rick James]

Westy, didn't he finish in the top 3 the last 2 years? Even with a injured QB at times. Whether or not his team was in a playoff race? He is also first or second in weekly consistantcy and his cuff is real cheap

In PPR yes, but notice I was referring to non-PPR

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Not when you can get similar production from a 2nd or 3rd rounder

Barber gets many of his points from TD's, he isn't very consistant on a weekly basis, but he finished RB7 last year and his carries will go up between a little and a lot. The only thing you seem to be predicting is injury. Did Quan get traded to the Cowboys? They are and were a passing team so that point is kinda????

Barber finished 7th, but his point totals in an average year would have put him lower (11th). I don't see him improving his point totals... and have seen him recently going 4th and 5th in the first round.

Who do you think are the risks, since you disagree with mine?

Westy's stats the last 2 seasons:Seas. Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD

2006 240 1217 7 77 699 4 RB5 in NON PPR (tied w Gore and 14 pts from RB4)

2007 278 1333 7 90 771 5 RB2 in NON PPR

'08 proj. 265 1266 8 538 4 RB2 in NON PPR

In NON PPR, he was drafted RB16 in '06, RB7 in '07 and is finally getting drafted for what he is worth in '08

Brady- I never said you couldn't match that production, I said he is a very safe pic (maybe 90%) sure of being top 3. Maybe someone like Romo matches him, but Romo has a short track record and if 35 year old TO gets dinged up or worse, what will happen to Romo. That extra insurance makes Brady (and Manning) worth more than someone like Romo, period. And wasn't the whole point of this thread to AVOID BUSTS?

Barber-He finished RB7 and is being drafted close to that. Even if he gets almost no additional points from increased touches, how does that make him a bust?

I really think it's reasonable to call all 3 low risk

 

[mozzy84]

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Not when you can get similar production from a 2nd or 3rd rounder

:( here - If Brady comes down to earth at all you will be able to get similar production a couple rounds later.

unless of course someone else takes those guys before your next pick. Like the first guy said brady is a great choice to not have your first rounder bust.

 

[switz]

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Not when you can get similar production from a 2nd or 3rd rounder

here - If Brady comes down to earth at all you will be able to get similar production a couple rounds later.

unless of course someone else takes those guys before your next pick. Like the first guy said brady is a great choice to not have your first rounder bust.

Then you look for Manning, Brees, or Romo - it's not like the difference is going to be big enough to make up for the value lost by passing on a better player at another position in the first. That is unless someone thinks Brady is going to perform like last year... but I don't think that's reasonable.

 

[I Am Rick James]

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Not when you can get similar production from a 2nd or 3rd rounder

here - If Brady comes down to earth at all you will be able to get similar production a couple rounds later.

unless of course someone else takes those guys before your next pick. Like the first guy said brady is a great choice to not have your first rounder bust.

Then you look for Manning, Brees, or Romo - it's not like the difference is going to be big enough to make up for the value lost by passing on a better player at another position in the first. That is unless someone thinks Brady is going to perform like last year... but I don't think that's reasonable.

Again, it's not an arguement of weather or not Brady is the smartest/best pic and I don't disagree with you waiting for a qb. But what happens if you take RB6 in the first round and he busts? Historically about a 50% chance of that but Brady just has to throw for about 33plus TD's to be successful. Seems like a no brainer for those who want a safe pic, don't you think?

 

[switz]

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Not when you can get similar production from a 2nd or 3rd rounder

here - If Brady comes down to earth at all you will be able to get similar production a couple rounds later.

unless of course someone else takes those guys before your next pick. Like the first guy said brady is a great choice to not have your first rounder bust.

Then you look for Manning, Brees, or Romo - it's not like the difference is going to be big enough to make up for the value lost by passing on a better player at another position in the first. That is unless someone thinks Brady is going to perform like last year... but I don't think that's reasonable.

Again, it's not an arguement of weather or not Brady is the smartest/best pic and I don't disagree with you waiting for a qb. But what happens if you take RB6 in the first round and he busts? Historically about a 50% chance of that but Brady just has to throw for about 33plus TD's to be successful. Seems like a no brainer for those who want a safe pic, don't you think?

I can see your angle... I guess it's like saying picking Gostkowski in the first is a good idea, because he's pretty safe to be in the top-3 kickers.

 

[I Am Rick James]

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Not when you can get similar production from a 2nd or 3rd rounder

here - If Brady comes down to earth at all you will be able to get similar production a couple rounds later.

unless of course someone else takes those guys before your next pick. Like the first guy said brady is a great choice to not have your first rounder bust.

Then you look for Manning, Brees, or Romo - it's not like the difference is going to be big enough to make up for the value lost by passing on a better player at another position in the first. That is unless someone thinks Brady is going to perform like last year... but I don't think that's reasonable.

Again, it's not an arguement of weather or not Brady is the smartest/best pic and I don't disagree with you waiting for a qb. But what happens if you take RB6 in the first round and he busts? Historically about a 50% chance of that but Brady just has to throw for about 33plus TD's to be successful. Seems like a no brainer for those who want a safe pic, don't you think?

I can see your angle... I guess it's like saying picking Gostkowski in the first is a good idea, because he's pretty safe to be in the top-3 kickers.

Yeah sure, Gost has the same upside as Brady. Now your just being a switz.

 

[mozzy84]

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Not when you can get similar production from a 2nd or 3rd rounder

here - If Brady comes down to earth at all you will be able to get similar production a couple rounds later.

unless of course someone else takes those guys before your next pick. Like the first guy said brady is a great choice to not have your first rounder bust.

Then you look for Manning, Brees, or Romo - it's not like the difference is going to be big enough to make up for the value lost by passing on a better player at another position in the first. That is unless someone thinks Brady is going to perform like last year... but I don't think that's reasonable.

all depends on league size and scoring. even in my 12 teamer, with 6 pt tds, not that I am saying its right but all those guys will be gone somewhere in the first/second.

 

[Gr00vus]

I don't think just low, moderate, high gives enough granularity to the risk evaluation, so I'll expand on it somewhat by using a scale of 1 (lowest risk) to 5 (highest risk == highest likelihood of not finishing close to or above their ADP), guys in red I will not draft anywhere near their listed ADP:

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - 1

2. Adrian Peterson - 1

3. Brian Westbrook - 2 - paying for last year's stats, history of soft tissue injuries

4. Joseph Addai - 2 - offensive production suffers if Manning is out

5. Steven Jackson - 3 - miserable surrounding cast

6. Tom Brady - 4 - paying for last year's numbers, will not have as much differential from the rest of the qb pool

7. Frank Gore - 5 - super miserable surrounding cast, Martz deemphasis on RB carries

8. Randy Moss - 4 - same as Brady

9. Marion Barber - 2 - will score a ton of td's may decrease in total yardage

10. Clinton Portis - 2 - seems to be slowing down, history of nagging injuries

11. Marshawn Lynch - 1 - mainstay of the offense, line is improved, not the highest ceiling but a very stable situation

12. Ryan Grant - 5 - I don't think he has the talent

13. Terrell Owens - 1

14. Reggie Wayne - 2 - drop off in production if Manning can't go, good enough to finish close to his ADP anyway

15. Willis McGahee - 5 - knee problems already, viable backup, attitude problems

16. Larry Johnson - 2 - monster talent, offense will be better than last year (but still not that great), 2nd biggest bargain in the top 20 here

17. Braylon Edwards - 3 - not sold on Anderson, Quinn is solid, hard for WR to repeat the kind of TD numbers he had last year

18. Peyton Manning - 4 - no news is bad news, better value in later round QBs anyway

19. Larry Fitzgerald - 1 - this guy is

20. Maurice Jones-Drew - 1 - biggest value in this top 20, takes a bit more production away from Fred Taylor this year in an improved offense

 

[switz]

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Not when you can get similar production from a 2nd or 3rd rounder

here - If Brady comes down to earth at all you will be able to get similar production a couple rounds later.

unless of course someone else takes those guys before your next pick. Like the first guy said brady is a great choice to not have your first rounder bust.

Then you look for Manning, Brees, or Romo - it's not like the difference is going to be big enough to make up for the value lost by passing on a better player at another position in the first. That is unless someone thinks Brady is going to perform like last year... but I don't think that's reasonable.

Again, it's not an arguement of weather or not Brady is the smartest/best pic and I don't disagree with you waiting for a qb. But what happens if you take RB6 in the first round and he busts? Historically about a 50% chance of that but Brady just has to throw for about 33plus TD's to be successful. Seems like a no brainer for those who want a safe pic, don't you think?

I can see your angle... I guess it's like saying picking Gostkowski in the first is a good idea, because he's pretty safe to be in the top-3 kickers.

Yeah sure, Gost has the same upside as Brady. Now your just being a switz.

It's about difference within the position each plays.Gostkowski has the potential to be the #1 kicker by quite a bit, as Brady has the potential to be the #1 QB. But you have a good shot at getting the #1 K or QB within three or four other players at that position. I just think you are overvaluing "safe" in your argument.

 

[I Am Rick James]

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Not when you can get similar production from a 2nd or 3rd rounder

here - If Brady comes down to earth at all you will be able to get similar production a couple rounds later.

unless of course someone else takes those guys before your next pick. Like the first guy said brady is a great choice to not have your first rounder bust.

Then you look for Manning, Brees, or Romo - it's not like the difference is going to be big enough to make up for the value lost by passing on a better player at another position in the first. That is unless someone thinks Brady is going to perform like last year... but I don't think that's reasonable.

Again, it's not an arguement of weather or not Brady is the smartest/best pic and I don't disagree with you waiting for a qb. But what happens if you take RB6 in the first round and he busts? Historically about a 50% chance of that but Brady just has to throw for about 33plus TD's to be successful. Seems like a no brainer for those who want a safe pic, don't you think?

I can see your angle... I guess it's like saying picking Gostkowski in the first is a good idea, because he's pretty safe to be in the top-3 kickers.

Yeah sure, Gost has the same upside as Brady. Now your just being a switz.

It's about difference within the position each plays.Gostkowski has the potential to be the #1 kicker by quite a bit, as Brady has the potential to be the #1 QB. But you have a good shot at getting the #1 K or QB within three or four other players at that position. I just think you are overvaluing "safe" in your argument.

I have won 2 Big $$ league's in 4 seasons drafting a QB in the first round (Culpepper in '04, Manning '06) so it can be done. You can't do that with a kicker, so just stop.

 

[Alias]

I have won 2 Big $$ league's in 4 seasons drafting a QB in the first round (Culpepper in '04, Manning '06) so it can be done. You can't do that with a kicker, so just stop.

How did that work out for you in '07 drafting Manning when he was outscored by 43% of his total fantasy points? Or other seasons when the #1 QB did not live up to their billing?

 

[dollarbill13]

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Moderate. Age is the biggest concern as older RBs tend to see their wheels fall off quickly. The good news is that he hasn't had that one season where he had a TON of carries a la Larry Johnson & Shaun Alexander that commonly precedes a collapse season.

2. Adrian Peterson - Moderate to High. Reminds me of Frank Gore last year. Superstar talent but he's been injured each of the last three years. The good news is that his injuries haven't been as serious as Gore's

3. Brian Westbrook - Low to Moderate. Age is a concern but he hasn't carries nearly the load that LT has. The risk is that last years 280 carries will catch up to him or that Andy Reid will lean on him too heavily given a lack of playmakers on offense (R. Brown & K. Curtis both injured)

4. Joseph Addai - Low. Not a ton of upside as I believe the Colts will limit his carries to 10-15 per game given last years injury. However, he should be a lock for 1000-1100 yards, 7-10 TD and decent receiving numbers. Probably wont exceed his draft position but wont be far below it either.

5. Steven Jackson - Low. Downside is his supporting cast and missing some of training camp.

6. Tom Brady - Low. He wont put up 50 TDs again but he wont throw for less than 30 with that cast.

7. Frank Gore - High. Supporting cast and injuries are huge concern.

8. Randy Moss - Low to Moderate. Will Moss start to lose focus if the Pats lose games? Still has the talent and QB to put up #1 WR numbers.

9. Marion Barber - Low to Moderate. Can he handle 250-300 carries with his violent running style or will he break down? If Dallas keeps him at ~200 carries, he still should put up ~RB12 numbers

10. Clinton Portis - Moderate. Lots of mileage but Washington has shown that they are willing to give him 20 carries per game if he's playing. He could cripple your team or he could be the savior.

11. Marshawn Lynch - Low. Slight injury concerns but last years weren't very serious. Supporting cast could prevent him from from finishing as a top 3 RB but only an injury will prevent him from finishing as a top 12 RB

12. Ryan Grant - High. Put up huge numbers in the 2nd half of the season after almost no playing time in the 1st half. Was it a matter of being fresher than the rest of the league? The loss of Brett Favre could impair the offense.

13. Terrell Owens - Low. Age is a concern but this guy is in top shape and has been relatively healthy in his career.

14. Reggie Wayne - Low. Only Peyton Manning missing significant time could hold him back.

15. Willis McGahee - Moderate. Great offensive coordinator, average talent for a starting RB. Could put up top 5 stats or end up in a time share with Rice

16. Larry Johnson - High. Not many people rebound from the number of carries LJ had in 2006

17. Braylon Edwards - Moderate. Did Cleveland over-achieve last year? He has a relatively low catch rate but has the physical skills to dominate smaller and slower corners. TD totals will almost certainly fall.

18. Peyton Manning - Moderate. Serious "injury" in the offseason that doesn't appear to be completely healed. Risky pick until Manning plays.

19. Larry Fitzgerald - Low. Should see a lot of targets. Boldin might make Fitz's week to week scores a little less consistent but Larry should still put up excellent numbers

20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Low. He will be inconsistent week-to-week but the final numbers should be there and the upside is huge.

 

[I Am Rick James]

I have won 2 Big $$ league's in 4 seasons drafting a QB in the first round (Culpepper in '04, Manning '06) so it can be done. You can't do that with a kicker, so just stop.

How did that work out for you in '07 drafting Manning when he was outscored by 43% of his total fantasy points? Or other seasons when the #1 QB did not live up to their billing?

I didn't pick late in '07 in any of my leagues, (Romo in the 7th in the same big $$$ league)This year I pic 10th and if things break in the worst possible way, I will go WR/Manning at the turn. Then I will find sleeper RB's or die

 

[texasheat]

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Moderate. Age is the biggest concern as older RBs tend to see their wheels fall off quickly. The good news is that he hasn't had that one season where he had a TON of carries a la Larry Johnson & Shaun Alexander that commonly precedes a collapse season.

3. Brian Westbrook - Low to Moderate. Age is a concern but he hasn't carries nearly the load that LT has. The risk is that last years 280 carries will catch up to him or that Andy Reid will lean on him too heavily given a lack of playmakers on offense (R. Brown & K. Curtis both injured)

Appreciate the post but - I don't understand how Westbrook can be viewed as a bigger risk than LT, on any level. they are both 29 years old when the season starts. Sure LT has more mileage, but he has 20bls and 2 inches on Westbrook. LT has missed 1 game in his career. Westy on the other hand...

All that being said, I like them both to finish in the top 5RB again.

 

[The Dude]

Good thread and here's the perfect example from last year.

I make some poor judgement calls in our auction and before I know it, I'm in a deep hole. So I take the likely highest risk/reward on the board in RANDY MOSS. While people tell me that he's done and that he's the nail in my teams coffin.

 

[AnonymousBob]

5. Steven Jackson - Low. Downside is his supporting cast and missing some of training camp. Interesting

7. Frank Gore - High. Supporting cast and injuries are huge concern.What injury concern? How is Frank Gore an injury concern but SJax isn't?? Guess which one has missed more time in their respective career? It's not this guy

10. Clinton Portis - Moderate. Lots of mileage but Washington has shown that they are willing to give him 20 carries per game if he's playing. He could cripple your team or he could be the savior.He's a pretty safe bet to finish top ten. Outside of LT/Addai one could argue he's the next safest choice

16. Larry Johnson - High. Not many people rebound from the number of carries LJ had in 2006Well not many people have the # of carries LJ did in 2006. Besides, how does what he did in 2006 affect 2008???

19. Larry Fitzgerald - Low. Should see a lot of targets. Boldin might make Fitz's week to week scores a little less consistent but Larry should still put up excellent numbersUnless Leinart is the starter

 

[switz]

Westy's stats the last 2 seasons:

Seas. Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD

2006 240 1217 7 77 699 4 RB5 in NON PPR (tied w Gore and 14 pts from RB4)

2007 278 1333 7 90 771 5 RB2 in NON PPR

'08 proj. 265 1266 8 538 4 RB2 in NON PPR

In NON PPR, he was drafted RB16 in '06, RB7 in '07 and is finally getting drafted for what he is worth in '08

Try again?2003 - #20 RB

2004 - #10 RB

2005 - #18 RB

2006 - #6 RB

2007 - #2 RB

As far as 2008 projections - they are just that, projections. Not a guarantee, that's nothing to prove he's less risky.

Brady- I never said you couldn't match that production, I said he is a very safe pic (maybe 90%) sure of being top 3. Maybe someone like Romo matches him, but Romo has a short track record and if 35 year old TO gets dinged up or worse, what will happen to Romo. That extra insurance makes Brady (and Manning) worth more than someone like Romo, period. And wasn't the whole point of this thread to AVOID BUSTS?

I wouldn't draft Manning in the first either. I just don't feel any QB is a smart first round pick...

Barber-He finished RB7 and is being drafted close to that. Even if he gets almost no additional points from increased touches, how does that make him a bust?

He's being draft 4th and 5th overall. He finished #14 in '06 and #7 in '07, but in an average year his '07 totals would have him at #11 or so... I just don't see the upside there. I don't think he's high risk, I just don't think he'll finish #4 or #5 where he's going. Sorta like Reggie Bush last year, and people this year view Reggie as a bust last season....

 

[switz]

4. Joseph Addai - Low. Not a ton of upside as I believe the Colts will limit his carries to 10-15 per game given last years injury. However, he should be a lock for 1000-1100 yards, 7-10 TD and decent receiving numbers. Probably wont exceed his draft position but wont be far below it either.

You do realize he had five 20+ carry games AFTER his injury... Addai will see 18-20 carries a game + 2-3 catches per game.I see you have him as low risk, and I agree... I just think people are putting far more stock into his "injury" than is reasonable.

 

[Chaka]

The hit-or-miss nature of RBs is what makes guys like Brady & Brees (& possibly Romo & Brees) legitimate first round picks.

Any one of those four could finish as the #1 QB and all four offer almost guaranteed production and 16 games played.

I would rather walk away with guaranteed production from my first round pick then taking the 40% (at best) chance risk that I will find a RB that will provide 1st round production.

 

[switz]

The hit-or-miss nature of RBs is what makes guys like Brady & Brees (& possibly Romo & Brees) legitimate first round picks.Any one of those four could finish as the #1 QB and all four offer almost guaranteed production and 16 games played.I would rather walk away with guaranteed production from my first round pick then taking the 40% (at best) chance risk that I will find a RB that will provide 1st round production.

Wow... I sure hope to see four QBs go in the first round of me draft coming up next Saturday. The disparity between QB1 and QB10 is not enough to make QB a good value pick early. Less risky? Maybe. But I'd rather take a risk on a guy that will lift me above other teams, than take the safe pick that doesn't provide much of an edge. It's just not a value pick.

 

[Gr00vus]

The hit-or-miss nature of RBs is what makes guys like Brady & Brees (& possibly Romo & Brees) legitimate first round picks.Any one of those four could finish as the #1 QB and all four offer almost guaranteed production and 16 games played.I would rather walk away with guaranteed production from my first round pick then taking the 40% (at best) chance risk that I will find a RB that will provide 1st round production.

Wow... I sure hope to see four QBs go in the first round of me draft coming up next Saturday. The disparity between QB1 and QB10 is not enough to make QB a good value pick early. Less risky? Maybe. But I'd rather take a risk on a guy that will lift me above other teams, than take the safe pick that doesn't provide much of an edge. It's just not a value pick.

 

[Jayrod]

The hit-or-miss nature of RBs is what makes guys like Brady & Brees (& possibly Romo & Brees) legitimate first round picks.Any one of those four could finish as the #1 QB and all four offer almost guaranteed production and 16 games played.I would rather walk away with guaranteed production from my first round pick then taking the 40% (at best) chance risk that I will find a RB that will provide 1st round production.

Wow... I sure hope to see four QBs go in the first round of me draft coming up next Saturday. The disparity between QB1 and QB10 is not enough to make QB a good value pick early. Less risky? Maybe. But I'd rather take a risk on a guy that will lift me above other teams, than take the safe pick that doesn't provide much of an edge. It's just not a value pick.

"You can't lose what you don't throw into the pot......but then again, you can't win much either."

 

[dollarbill13]

5. Steven Jackson - Low. Downside is his supporting cast and missing some of training camp. Interesting

7. Frank Gore - High. Supporting cast and injuries are huge concern.What injury concern? How is Frank Gore an injury concern but SJax isn't?? Guess which one has missed more time in their respective career? It's not this guy

10. Clinton Portis - Moderate. Lots of mileage but Washington has shown that they are willing to give him 20 carries per game if he's playing. He could cripple your team or he could be the savior.He's a pretty safe bet to finish top ten. Outside of LT/Addai one could argue he's the next safest choice

16. Larry Johnson - High. Not many people rebound from the number of carries LJ had in 2006Well not many people have the # of carries LJ did in 2006. Besides, how does what he did in 2006 affect 2008???

19. Larry Fitzgerald - Low. Should see a lot of targets. Boldin might make Fitz's week to week scores a little less consistent but Larry should still put up excellent numbersUnless Leinart is the starter

Frank Gore was knocked out of two seasons in college because of knee injuries. Much more serious history than Jackson. Portis only started 8 games in '06 so I'm not totally confident in his ability to stay healthy. His ypc has also been falling - under 4 last year - which makes me worried that he's wearing down quickly.

A lot has been said about RBs with over 370 carries in a season (or 390 including playoffs) that they never return to their previous level. I believe it is a Football Outsiders theory.

Leinart could hurt Fitzgerald's numbers but he should still be a safe bet for 1100 yards and a lot of red zone looks.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Peyton Manning is as steady as they come. I can't imagine a more "low risk" player than him.

do you read the papers?

 

[dollarbill13]

4. Joseph Addai - Low. Not a ton of upside as I believe the Colts will limit his carries to 10-15 per game given last years injury. However, he should be a lock for 1000-1100 yards, 7-10 TD and decent receiving numbers. Probably wont exceed his draft position but wont be far below it either.

You do realize he had five 20+ carry games AFTER his injury... Addai will see 18-20 carries a game + 2-3 catches per game.I see you have him as low risk, and I agree... I just think people are putting far more stock into his "injury" than is reasonable.

You are probably right that I under estimated his carries. I think they might limit him a little bit to try to maximize his effectiveness though. We'll see, but I definetely don't see him as a guy who will kill your team if you draft him early.

 

[dollarbill13]

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Moderate. Age is the biggest concern as older RBs tend to see their wheels fall off quickly. The good news is that he hasn't had that one season where he had a TON of carries a la Larry Johnson & Shaun Alexander that commonly precedes a collapse season.

3. Brian Westbrook - Low to Moderate. Age is a concern but he hasn't carries nearly the load that LT has. The risk is that last years 280 carries will catch up to him or that Andy Reid will lean on him too heavily given a lack of playmakers on offense (R. Brown & K. Curtis both injured)

Appreciate the post but - I don't understand how Westbrook can be viewed as a bigger risk than LT, on any level. they are both 29 years old when the season starts. Sure LT has more mileage, but he has 20bls and 2 inches on Westbrook. LT has missed 1 game in his career. Westy on the other hand...

All that being said, I like them both to finish in the top 5RB again.

I don't think they are that far apart. If using the 1-5 scale discussed in another post, I'd rate LT as a 2.5 and Westbrook a 2 maybe. But arguments can be made for either player and there probably is no "right" answer right now.

 

[FavreCo]

I have won 2 Big $$ league's in 4 seasons drafting a QB in the first round (Culpepper in '04, Manning '06) so it can be done. You can't do that with a kicker, so just stop.

Dude, you know what you are talking about. Fact is, we are taking Drew Brees. Since a QB gets 6 points for a TD and a RB gets the same, the QB is worth way more and is the safer pick. I'll take the 30 TD's Brees can throw over the 13 we may score with a RB at pick # 11 of 14. We can get the RB in round 2. (According to our scouting, we already know Brady, Mannning will be gone by then and possibly Romo).