Navigating the 1st Round Mine Field (1 Viewer)

[texasheat]

As part of my draft prep every year I always like to take a look back at the drafts of a year ago in the main leagues I play in. This year, upon doing so, I was astounded at how many owner's seasons were doomed from the very first pick! Obviously hind site is 20/20, but as we take a closer look, I have to ask was the writing on the wall and we just chose to ignore it? Also, I'll give my opinion on where the greatest risk lies in the top 20 or so. We've all heard the saying, you can't win your league in the 1st round but you can definitely lose it. So much of our study or prep is focused on finding that diamond in the rough I think sometimes we fail to see warning signs that are staring us right in the face.

I know it's inevitable, but I'll ask anyway: Let's not turn this into "I would've never drafted x player or y player" or "Wow I want to be in your league!" This is about trying to identify risk in the early picks.

*it's important to note that I am not factoring in injuries for the sake of this thread. Injuries can happen to anyone at any point in the draft.

So let's take a look at 3 different 1st rounds from my main leagues last year and see what we can learn (if anything). I have bolded the players that underperformed their 1st round ADP from last year. In addition I added their end of year rank based on points per game, not total points. (gives us a better indication on those players that may not have played a full 16 games)

League A (local league 1ppr)

1.01 1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

1.02 2. Jackson, Steven STL RB

1.03 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB Finished RB12

1.04 4. Gore, Frank SFO RB Finished RB10

1.05 5. Addai, Joseph IND RB

1.06 6. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Finished RB40

1.07 7. Bush, Reggie NOS RB Finished RB11

1.08 8. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

1.09 9. Benson, Cedric CHI RB Ok I admit, this pick should have never been made... Finished RB27

1.10 10. Parker, Willie PIT RB Finished RB24

1.11 11. Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Finished RB43

1.12 12. Henry, Travis DEN RB Finished RB39

League B (Local league 1ppr) same scoring as league A

1.01 1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

1.02 2. Jackson, Steven STL RB

1.03 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB Finished RB12

1.04 4. Gore, Frank SFO RB

1.05 5. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Finished RB40

1.06 6. Bush, Reggie NOS RB Finished RB11

1.07 7. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

1.08 8. Parker, Willie PIT RB Finished RB24

1.09 9. Addai, Joseph IND RB

1.10 10. Henry, Travis DEN RB Finished RB39

1.11 11. Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Finished RB43

1.12 12. Maroney, Laurence NEP RB Finished RB37

League C (NFFC 14 Teamer) 1/2 ppr for RB 6 pt all TD

1 LaDainian Tomlinson RB

2 Steven Jackson RB

3 Larry Johnson RB Finished RB14

4 Joseph Addai RB

5 Frank Gore RB

6 Reggie Bush RB Finished RB10 (borderline here, some may be ok with this production from #6 overall)

7 Brian Westbrook RB

8 Shaun Alexander RB Finished RB40

9 Willie Parker RB Finished RB24

10 Travis Henry RB Finished RB39

11 Rudi Johnson RB Finished RB44

12 Laurence Maroney RB Finished RB31

13 Steve Smith WR Finished WR15

14 Edgerrin James RB Finished RB19

These results were eye opening for me. I knew that some of these guys were bad last year, but more than half of the first rounders in all three of these leagues grossly underperformed their 1st round ADP. Maybe last year was an anomaly, but the point here is that there is a very real threat of ruining your team before you even get out of the first round.

We all see the threads every year along these lines: "Who is this year's Colsten?" "Who is this year's Brady?" "Who is this year's Jamal Lewis?". I think the more critical question to be asking is "Who is this year's Alexander or Henry?"

This is where you, the Shark Pool, come in. After all, I'm no expert but I'll give it my best shot below. Here are the current top20 (debatable I know but stick with me here) along with a risk value and a comment:

Again, I don't put much weight in risk of injury for the sake of this argument but if it's worth mentioning in extreme cases, I will.

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Low Risk - Mileage will become a concern at some point, not this year.

2. Adrian Peterson - Low to Moderate Risk - 2nd Year, in a RBBC but will see plenty of touches. Some say he won't stay healthy.

3. Brian Westbrook - Low Risk - He is gold in PPR, expect much of the same from a year ago.

4. Joseph Addai - Low Risk - He's in a great situation, small concern if Peyton isn't healthy.

5. Steven Jackson - Moderate to High Risk - He's on a bad team with a bad O-line, assuming he reports soon, missing all of camp is never a good thing

6. Tom Brady - Low Risk - He'll be a top 3 QB, but at this price is it worth it? I say no.

7. Frank Gore - Moderate Risk - New Offense, bad team, revolving door at QB. Will be playing from behind alot, ok if he is a big part of the passing game.

8. Randy Moss - Low Risk - Hard to imagine 23 TD's again, but it's also hard to imagine him not being a top 3 WR in '08

9. Marion Barber - Moderate Risk hasn't been the feature back, Felix Jones will be the primary RB pass catcher, has almost no upside over where he finished a year ago.

10. Clinton Portis - Low Risk New offense, has been the model of consistency over the years when healthy

11. Marshawn Lynch - Low Risk Only his 2nd year in the league

12. Ryan Grant - Moderate Risk Classic boom or bust pick in my mind. There are a host of capable RBs on the roster he also missed some camp and is currently nursing an injury.

13. Terrell Owens -Low to Moderate Risk Age is a factor here, will see lots of double coverage with no real deep threat opposite him.

14. Reggie Wayne -Moderate Risk - His QB isn't healthy at the moment, Harrison is back but will that help or hurt his production?

15. Willis McGahee - Moderate to High Risk - Can't ignore his knee troubles both current and past. Oh yea and there is Ray Rice.

16. Larry Johnson - Moderate Risk -Hard to get a bead on this one, sure he'll get alot of touches but a drastic drop in YPC is troubling (see Shawn Alexander)

17. Braylon Edwards - Low to Moderate Risk -Could be spending time with a new QB at some point this year. Currently missing camp time with leg injury

18. Peyton Manning - Moderate to High Risk - He'll end up being fine, but at 18 overall I want someone who's been in camp and is currently healthy.

19. Larry Fitzgerald - Moderate Risk - Warner out, Leinart in. Boldin could cause trouble in the locker room, if he stays with the team.

20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Moderate Risk -Everyone keeps waiting for Fred Taylor to take a back seat. Could this be the year?

So there you have it, my "Risk Analysis" of the current top 20. I'd love to hear some feedback from the FBG community on why I have it all wrong or maybe something I may have overlooked. Thanks for making it this far!

 

[AnonymousBob]

Peyton Manning is as steady as they come. I can't imagine a more "low risk" player than him.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Thanks for your efforts. I will be back later...

 

[renesauz]

I appreciate the effort, but I seriously question your qualifications for "underperformed."

You highlit Gore and Bush in the first draft. Gore was drafted at RB4 and ended as RB10...not exactly a damning indictment, and certanly not a pick that cost anybody their league. Bush? Only missed his spot by 4. I have trouble considering that as a miss at all!

Also, I don't think Alexander was a very common first round pick last year. I know you wanted to avoid comparing leagues, but almost any random local league will have a few true bonehead picks in it, usually by homers. Using these leagues as the basis for your post/analyses(?) is questionable at best.

i understand (and appreciate) what you're trying to say BUT:

FIRST: you really need to lower your standards of hit/miss a little, because you currently have it set too high to make the analyses useful.

SECOND: Recognize and understand your peer group. you purposefully asked us not to devolve into "I would have never drafted him" lines...but the truth is that among FBG's and experianced drafters, there are MANY examples of guys in these "example drafts" that most of us (who would actually look at a thread like this in a place like this) really never would have considered.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think this is one reason you are seeing alot of WR's go high this year. Many got burned going RB/RB last year and coupled with the prolific passing numbers that got put up in 2007 - people have started to rethink their strategies. When you also consider that injuries or an accumulation of wear and tear (or a combination of both) derailed alot of these RB's - and then you see the advent of the mass adoption of RBBC in the NFL - the value of the RB position has been dramatically reduced quite quickly in FF.

The true studs are still the most valuable asset to have, but after that the field really levels out.

 

[Raider Nation]

Peyton Manning is as steady as they come. I can't imagine a more "low risk" player than him.

This has been true the last several years. No longer.

 

[texasheat]

Peyton Manning is as steady as they come. I can't imagine a more "low risk" player than him.

I agree, but this preseason has been like no other one he has ever had. He is not a lock to start the season healthy. Those two things are why I feel he has more risk this year than in years past.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Also, I don't think Alexander was a very common first round pick last year.

I disagree. I know in some leagues he was going as high as 1.04. The prevailing notion was that he would return to his MVP 2005 form after an injury plagued 2006.

 

[texasheat]

I appreciate the effort, but I seriously question your qualifications for "underperformed."You highlit Gore and Bush in the first draft. Gore was drafted at RB4 and ended as RB10...not exactly a damning indictment, and certanly not a pick that cost anybody their league. Bush? Only missed his spot by 4. I have trouble considering that as a miss at all!Also, I don't think Alexander was a very common first round pick last year. I know you wanted to avoid comparing leagues, but almost any random local league will have a few true bonehead picks in it, usually by homers. Using these leagues as the basis for your post/analyses(?) is questionable at best.i understand (and appreciate) what you're trying to say BUT:FIRST: you really need to lower your standards of hit/miss a little, because you currently have it set too high to make the analyses useful.SECOND: Recognize and understand your peer group. you purposefully asked us not to devolve into "I would have never drafted him" lines...but the truth is that among FBG's and experianced drafters, there are MANY examples of guys in these "example drafts" that most of us (who would actually look at a thread like this in a place like this) really never would have considered.

Sorry to have wasted your time. (and mine apparently)

 

[zed2283]

I don't care what spot S.Jackson finished, you have to include him as a team killer last year. I know this from personal experience.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Peyton Manning is as steady as they come. I can't imagine a more "low risk" player than him.

I agree, but this preseason has been like no other one he has ever had. He is not a lock to start the season healthy. Those two things are why I feel he has more risk this year than in years past.

I understand the reasoning for labeling him as a moderate risk...but a high risk? Even if he starts slowly the first couple weeks he's still a lock to finish with 3,500 yards and 25+ touchdowns. And that's an EXTREMELY conservative floor.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Also, I don't think Alexander was a very common first round pick last year.

I disagree. I know in some leagues he was going as high as 1.04. The prevailing notion was that he would return to his MVP 2005 form after an injury plagued 2006.

I wasn't entirely convinced that would be the case but SA was a first round selection.

 

[stevegamer]

Peyton Manning is as steady as they come. I can't imagine a more "low risk" player than him.

I agree, but this preseason has been like no other one he has ever had. He is not a lock to start the season healthy. Those two things are why I feel he has more risk this year than in years past.

The problem is he's been essentially a zero risk player. So, ignoirng injury - which one can't predict to any good degree - he's got more risk due to his current injury.I think we can agree nobody with a brain is worried about his grasp of the offense or that kind of stuff. He's not a suspension candidate. There will be some rust, and he may need to sync up with people, but by and large I'd expect him to do that in the 4th preseason game, or it might linger into the regular season.I don't really think that carries close to high risk. Low to moderate, okay.Also some of the underperformers are a problem. Bush was listed once as an udnerperformer and once as okay with the same variance: 6 vs. 10 & 7 vs 11. If you're going to analyze the risk, you also need to analyze how big the risk is. It's not just likelihood of underperforming, but how badly. So your misses should be categorized.

 

[Gr00vus]

I may come back to nitpick some of the individual player comments you made, but my biggest problem is with your base assumption:

"you can't win your league in the 1st round but you can definitely lose it."

This gets repeated all the time, but it's not necessarily true.

Last year in 4 different leagues my 1st round picks were Larry Johnson, Travis Henry, Willie Parker and Shaun Alexander. I made the playoffs in 3 out of 4 of those leagues, missed the playoffs in the 4 th one by 0.06 points (the Larry Johnson team), and even made it to the finals of a 16 team league with the team that was saddled with Shaun Alexander. Also, in none of those leagues did I have Brady or Moss.

I'm not writing the above to brag (of course not - I didn't win any of those leagues last year), I'm just saying the assumption that your team is toast because your 1st round pick busts is wrong. You've still got like 88% of your starting lineup and 95% of your entire roster left to establish - that's way more important than your 1st round pick.

I think people focus way too much on the 1st round and not enough on the others. The 1st round is the round most likely to match consensus rankings - there isn't much flexibility in it (even if you think you're a maverick you're probably not, much like John McCain), once you get your 1st round position, you have a pretty good idea of what your two or three options will be. Very few people have the goods to successfully project which "reaches" truly belong in the first round, and beyond that, if you use VBD you're not going to pull those guys up your charts anyway - it lessens the value. To maximize value it makes to take a "consensus" 1st rounder in the 1st round and then draft your high value players later after or around their ADP. If the 1st rounder busts, well you still have your value players, and if he doesn't you're #### of the walk with a bonafide 1st rounder AND your value players.

So unless you have a crystal ball, the guess the 1st round bust game isn't going to pay off very often. What can you do?

Draft the hell out of the remaining rounds (that's where all but one of your roster spots are determined), make good trades from depth established in those rounds and make productive use of the waiver wire - that's how you win your league.

I'm not saying you shouldn't put any thought into your 1st rounder, but the game's not over if your 1st rounder gags.

Sorry for the hijack.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I don't care what spot S.Jackson finished, you have to include him as a team killer last year. I know this from personal experience.

this was my first thought as well....he went #2 overall in most of my drafts....twice to me....and it was a major setback....

 

[Pittsburgh United]

I don't care what spot S.Jackson finished, you have to include him as a team killer last year. I know this from personal experience.

this was my first thought as well....he went #2 overall in most of my drafts....twice to me....and it was a major setback....

Last year: two leagues, pick #2 in both, took Jackson in both, killed me in both.Never again. I'm picking #5 this year and I wouldn't touch him if he slipped to me in the second round. Last year was my most painful fantasy season ever.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

The question is why did each of your bolded players fail, and how does that thinking go into this year?

L Johnson - long training camp holdout, bad team, got injured (this effect seems to driving down the stock of SJax this year - Grant might fit in here too).

Gore - inflated expectations based off a previous blow-up year, the "Steve Smith" effect (could apply to Ryan Grant, although I think his ADP is more in round 2)

Alexander - the wheels finally came off (LT's a remote possibility here - no one else seems to be at risk for an Alexander decline)

Bush - did not progress into his new role as hoped, i.e. feature back (MBIII could fit this criteria as well as MJD if given the chance to be the #1, but unlike Bush, both have proven to be good inside runners, it's just a matter of if they can do it for 20 carries over 4 quarters)

Benson - opportunity perception overriding average talent (The only possible fit here is Grant - the other top players listed are all very talented IMO)

Parker - lack of TDs (I don't know how one predicts this since Parker's rushing yards were very good - could happen to almost anyone)

Rudi - injuries, mileage, opportunity > talent (slightly) (N/A for 2008)

Henry - knucklehead (N/A - Moss and Owens look to have turned the corners in their careers and were solid citizens)

Maroney - see Reggie Bush

Steve Smith - David Carr (Plax owners have been warned)

Edge - see Rudi Johnson except for the opp > talent part

 

[texasheat]

The question is why did each of your bolded players fail, and how does that thinking go into this year?L Johnson - long training camp holdout, bad team, got injured (this effect seems to driving down the stock of SJax this year - Grant might fit in here too).Gore - inflated expectations based off a previous blow-up year, the "Steve Smith" effect (could apply to Ryan Grant, although I think his ADP is more in round 2)Alexander - the wheels finally came off (LT's a remote possibility here - no one else seems to be at risk for an Alexander decline)Bush - did not progress into his new role as hoped, i.e. feature back (MBIII could fit this criteria as well as MJD if given the chance to be the #1, but unlike Bush, both have proven to be good inside runners, it's just a matter of if they can do it for 20 carries over 4 quarters)Benson - opportunity perception overriding average talent (The only possible fit here is Grant - the other top players listed are all very talented IMO)Parker - lack of TDs (I don't know how one predicts this since Parker's rushing yards were very good - could happen to almost anyone)Rudi - injuries, mileage, opportunity > talent (slightly) (N/A for 2008)Henry - knucklehead (N/A - Moss and Owens look to have turned the corners in their careers and were solid citizens)Maroney - see Reggie BushSteve Smith - David Carr (Plax owners have been warned)Edge - see Rudi Johnson except for the opp > talent part

Finally someone gets it. Thanks for your effort.

 

[mozzy84]

I don't care what spot S.Jackson finished, you have to include him as a team killer last year. I know this from personal experience.

this was my first thought as well....he went #2 overall in most of my drafts....twice to me....and it was a major setback....

Last year: two leagues, pick #2 in both, took Jackson in both, killed me in both.Never again. I'm picking #5 this year and I wouldn't touch him if he slipped to me in the second round. Last year was my most painful fantasy season ever.

I won last year with him, very solid after their bye week and in the ff playoffs.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I don't care what spot S.Jackson finished, you have to include him as a team killer last year. I know this from personal experience.

this was my first thought as well....he went #2 overall in most of my drafts....twice to me....and it was a major setback....

Last year: two leagues, pick #2 in both, took Jackson in both, killed me in both.Never again. I'm picking #5 this year and I wouldn't touch him if he slipped to me in the second round. Last year was my most painful fantasy season ever.

I won last year with him, very solid after their bye week and in the ff playoffs.

If you were fortunate enough to get to the playoffs with Jackson, you probably won your league. If not, you probably hate him this year and will grade him lower than you should. Sounds like a "market inefficiency" to me. :moneyball:

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I'd put M. Lynch as moderate risk and MJD as Low Risk

 

[BigJim®]

I don't care what spot S.Jackson finished, you have to include him as a team killer last year. I know this from personal experience.

this was my first thought as well....he went #2 overall in most of my drafts....twice to me....and it was a major setback....

Last year: two leagues, pick #2 in both, took Jackson in both, killed me in both.Never again. I'm picking #5 this year and I wouldn't touch him if he slipped to me in the second round. Last year was my most painful fantasy season ever.

I won last year with him, very solid after their bye week and in the ff playoffs.

Then you won last year in spite of him. I would say that absent having unbelievable fortune, most SJ owners were SOL last season by the time he healed from injury.

 

[texasheat]

I'd put M. Lynch as moderate risk and MJD as Low Risk

Certainly a case to be made for that. I'm really disappointed this didn't spur much conversation. oh well...

 

[ScoobyDoo]

I appreciate the effort, but you really didn't make any tough calls. The only high risk you listed in the top 20 is Steven Jackson, yet the first round last year was a minefield full of disaster.

It appears based on the posting that I'm supposed to avoid Steven Jackson, feel tepid about Brady high, and just know that I have a relatively risk free early rounds in my draft.

 

[texasheat]

The point of the thread wasn't for me to impart my wisdom on you, but merely get feedback on the topic of who are the top picks with the most risk and why. I gave my evaluation, and I'd love if others did the same. Much like Ted Lange's post above.

 

[wraith5]

I appreciate the effort, but you really didn't make any tough calls. The only high risk you listed in the top 20 is Steven Jackson, yet the first round last year was a minefield full of disaster.It appears based on the posting that I'm supposed to avoid Steven Jackson, feel tepid about Brady high, and just know that I have a relatively risk free early rounds in my draft.

You don't get it, Sluggo, so let me help you out. (This goes for renesauz, too) Rate the risk (low, moderate, high) for the following top picks in fantasy drafts. Feel free to add comentary as to why you rank players the way you do, and/or add other players you've seen go in the first or second round of drafts, and rate their risk as well. 1. Ladainian Tomlinson - 2. Adrian Peterson - 3. Brian Westbrook - 4. Joseph Addai - 5. Steven Jackson - 6. Tom Brady - 7. Frank Gore - 8. Randy Moss - 9. Marion Barber - 10. Clinton Portis -11. Marshawn Lynch - 12. Ryan Grant - 13. Terrell Owens -14. Reggie Wayne -15. Willis McGahee - 16. Larry Johnson - 17. Braylon Edwards - 18. Peyton Manning - 19. Larry Fitzgerald - 20. Maurice Jones-Drew -

 

[texasheat]

I could have said it that way, but it wouldn't have killed a full hour of work.

(well said)

 

[ScoobyDoo]

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Moderate

2. Adrian Peterson - Moderate

3. Brian Westbrook - High

4. Joseph Addai - High

5. Steven Jackson - High

6. Tom Brady -Low

7. Frank Gore - High

8. Randy Moss - Moderate

9. Marion Barber - Moderate

10. Clinton Portis - Moderate

11. Marshawn Lynch - Moderate

12. Ryan Grant - High

13. Terrell Owens - Moderate

14. Reggie Wayne - Moderate

15. Willis McGahee - High

16. Larry Johnson - High

17. Braylon Edwards - Low

18. Peyton Manning - Moderate

19. Larry Fitzgerald - High

20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Moderate

 

[texasheat]

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Moderate2. Adrian Peterson - Moderate3. Brian Westbrook - High4. Joseph Addai - High5. Steven Jackson - High6. Tom Brady -Low7. Frank Gore - High8. Randy Moss - Moderate9. Marion Barber - Moderate10. Clinton Portis - Moderate11. Marshawn Lynch - Moderate12. Ryan Grant - High13. Terrell Owens - Moderate14. Reggie Wayne - Moderate15. Willis McGahee - High16. Larry Johnson - High17. Braylon Edwards - Low18. Peyton Manning - Moderate19. Larry Fitzgerald - High20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Moderate

Thanks scoobs... what makes Moss a riskier option than Edwards in your mind?

 

[wraith5]

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Moderate2. Adrian Peterson - Moderate3. Brian Westbrook - High4. Joseph Addai - High5. Steven Jackson - High6. Tom Brady -Low7. Frank Gore - High8. Randy Moss - Moderate9. Marion Barber - Moderate10. Clinton Portis - Moderate11. Marshawn Lynch - Moderate12. Ryan Grant - High13. Terrell Owens - Moderate14. Reggie Wayne - Moderate15. Willis McGahee - High16. Larry Johnson - High17. Braylon Edwards - Low18. Peyton Manning - Moderate19. Larry Fitzgerald - High20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Moderate

Why do feel Addai is high risk? And Edwards is one of 2 guys you rate low - that surprises me as well. Fitz I think is a pretty safe top pick regardless of who's throwing him the rock... I'll take my turn here in a minute.

 

[amnesiac]

good topic. i've also been thinking recently if figuring out who to not draft is more important than deciding who to draft.

if you eliminate enough bad picks the good picks should become obvious.

 

[wraith5]

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Low Risk – safest pick to make the top 10. He’ll even throw a couple of TDs

2. Adrian Peterson - Low Risk – Even if it’s technically a RBBC, he comes out after he decimates the competition

3. Brian Westbrook - Moderate Risk – He’ll miss a game or two, but he’s the focus of that system. In PPR leagues he is GOLD.

4. Joseph Addai - Low Risk – IMO he’s the safest of the 2nd tier of RBs

5. Steven Jackson – High Risk – OK, so he’s in camp now. The only concern left is the O-line. And injury.

6. Tom Brady – Moderate Risk – He’ll be QB1 come January, but will he be worth the draft spot compared to Manning, Romo, & Brees (possibly some others as well)

7. Frank Gore - Moderate Risk – The Martz factor is overrated (See “Kevin Jones”). He’ll be the focus, but will anyone be worried about the SF QB beating them?

8. Randy Moss - Low Risk – All but a lock to top the WR list.

9. Marion Barber - Moderate Risk – Should perform to his draft position, but Felix Jones is better than Julius Jones.

10. Clinton Portis - Low Risk – I never give this guy the credit he deserves. But he delivers.

11. Marshawn Lynch - Low Risk – He’ll be more of a focus and he’ll be involved in the passing game. The primary risk point IMO is if Trent Edwards misses time.

12. Ryan Grant - Moderate Risk – The man got paid, so it appears that GB doesn’t consider him a one-hit-wonder… but he could be. Good O-line and Rogers should be just fine.

13. Terrell Owens -Low Risk – I really like TO in Dallas. He’ll still disappear for a couple of games, but he’ll deliver the rest of the time and there are enough weapons in DAL to keep defenses from cheating.

14. Reggie Wayne -Low Risk – Even Sorgi knows enough to get Wayne the ball. No worries here.

15. Willis McGahee - High Risk – As of today (8/20) the man can’t even JOG and he has well-hyped talent behind him. You never lose a job due to injury… right?!?

16. Larry Johnson – High Risk – Put LJ in a Bobcat behind that line and he’s still going to average under 3.5 YPC. Croyle will be better, and Bowe / Gonzo give D’s something to think about besides Johnson.

17. Braylon Edwards - Low Risk – Assuming the cut is just a cut, he should be good to go for the season.

18. Peyton Manning - Moderate Risk – His injury is becoming more worrisome. If he falls much more though he’ll be worth missing a couple of games.

19. Larry Fitzgerald – Low Risk – Leinart should be better, and if Warner plays Fitz will light it up.

20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Moderate Risk – Even with Fred gaining 1200 yards MJD got his. Last year is this years floor. In PPR leagues he’s even better.

Adding:

Jamal Lewis – Moderate Risk – Great O-line, but almost half of his TD’s last year came in ONE game (wk 9, SEA). 8 games where he was under 75 yds rushing. I like him in 3, not in 2.

Reggie Bush – Moderate Risk - He’s not who we thought he was, unless you are in a PPR league. Between the tackles RBs in NO (including Deuce?!?!) will limit his upside, but would also allow him to focus on what he’s good at.

Lawrence Maroney – High Risk – He’s not going to be the focus of the running game, folks. Too much talent sharing the backfield with him. 60% of the carries (not touches) is his ceiling.

Andre Johnson – Moderate Risk – I can’t shake the injury concern, but I really think he’s going to blow the doors off the place this year.

TJ Housh – Moderate Risk – CIN stands on the brink… safer picks for your first WR

Chad Johnson – Moderate/High Risk – maybe safer picks for your SECOND WR… but when he feels like it he’s a #### talented WR.

 

[AnonymousBob]

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Low risk...anybody can get hurt but barring injury this guy is a lock for a near top spot

2. Adrian Peterson - Moderate risk...bit of an injury risk and still sharing carries but extremely explosive

3. Brian Westbrook - Moderate risk...career year last year but no reason to think they'll stop using him

4. Joseph Addai - Low risk...very safe play here

5. Steven Jackson - Moderate to High risk...they have a nice schedule but Bulger and that line haven't stayed healthy for awhile

6. Tom Brady - Low risk...arguably the lowest risk of any top pick but right now their offensive line is in near shambles

7. Frank Gore - High risk...was top ten last season and now gets Martz. Great upside but the team still sucks.

8. Randy Moss - Low risk...Best wr in the game and one of the best qb's throwing to him

9. Marion Barber - Moderate risk...gl duties in a high powered offense

10. Clinton Portis -Low risk...he's not a sexy pick but he's going to get a lot of touches and he's productive with them

11. Marshawn Lynch - Moderate to High risk...Upcoming offense but still a young team. He won't have many monster games

12. Ryan Grant - High risk...without Favre and had a great half a season but it was only a half a season

13. Terrell Owens - Moderate to High risk...Slowed to end the season and is getting up there in years but still a good pick

14. Reggie Wayne - Low to moderate risk...#1 with Peyton throwing the ball. Slight knee concern with Manning but that's it

15. Willis McGahee - High risk...Knee surgery this close to start the year? Has Cameron but I don't like him going under the knife so late

16. Larry Johnson - Moderate risk...will get a LOT of carries/catches and all gl work but offense has fallen

17. Braylon Edwards - Moderate risk...16 td's last season and that's a very fluky stat.

18. Peyton Manning - Low to Moderate risk...I'm not worried about his knee but it's something to keep an eye on

19. Larry Fitzgerald - Moderate to High risk...With Leinart throwing him the ball? No thanks.

20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Low to moderate risk...Gets gl work and loads of upside if Taylor goes down

 

[gregjcross]

I may come back to nitpick some of the individual player comments you made, but my biggest problem is with your base assumption:"you can't win your league in the 1st round but you can definitely lose it."This gets repeated all the time, but it's not necessarily true.Last year in 4 different leagues my 1st round picks were Larry Johnson, Travis Henry, Willie Parker and Shaun Alexander. I made the playoffs in 3 out of 4 of those leagues, missed the playoffs in the 4 th one by 0.06 points (the Larry Johnson team), and even made it to the finals of a 16 team league with the team that was saddled with Shaun Alexander. Also, in none of those leagues did I have Brady or Moss.I'm not writing the above to brag (of course not - I didn't win any of those leagues last year), I'm just saying the assumption that your team is toast because your 1st round pick busts is wrong. You've still got like 88% of your starting lineup and 95% of your entire roster left to establish - that's way more important than your 1st round pick.I think people focus way too much on the 1st round and not enough on the others. The 1st round is the round most likely to match consensus rankings - there isn't much flexibility in it (even if you think you're a maverick you're probably not, much like John McCain), once you get your 1st round position, you have a pretty good idea of what your two or three options will be. Very few people have the goods to successfully project which "reaches" truly belong in the first round, and beyond that, if you use VBD you're not going to pull those guys up your charts anyway - it lessens the value. To maximize value it makes to take a "consensus" 1st rounder in the 1st round and then draft your high value players later after or around their ADP. If the 1st rounder busts, well you still have your value players, and if he doesn't you're #### of the walk with a bonafide 1st rounder AND your value players.So unless you have a crystal ball, the guess the 1st round bust game isn't going to pay off very often. What can you do?Draft the hell out of the remaining rounds (that's where all but one of your roster spots are determined), make good trades from depth established in those rounds and make productive use of the waiver wire - that's how you win your league.I'm not saying you shouldn't put any thought into your 1st rounder, but the game's not over if your 1st rounder gags.Sorry for the hijack.

I've seen two top picks do mediocre and still finish strong with bye week pick ups and later round over achievers. Guys like Plaxico Burress, Ryan Grant and Big Ben could have saved many people last year from early mishaps.

 

[AnonymousBob]

7. Frank Gore - Moderate Risk – The Martz factor is overrated (See “Kevin Jones”). He’ll be the focus, but will anyone be worried about the SF QB beating them?

It was Kevin Jones' problem staying healthy that prevented him from a top ten finish. Gore gets the fragile reputation but KJ is actually the glass man.

 

[jagerbomb]

Really good topic. Too bad so many people don't get it.

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Low

2. Adrian Peterson - Moderate

3. Brian Westbrook - High - I think his injury risk is higher than people think

4. Joseph Addai - Moderate

5. Steven Jackson - High - but if he is playing for a contract, I'd change this to Moderate

6. Tom Brady - Moderate - I think he'll be top 2 or 3 but 6th overall for the 3rd best QB is a bust

7. Frank Gore - Moderate

8. Randy Moss - Moderate - Same logic as Brady

9. Marion Barber - Moderate - hasn't put up the numbers yet

10. Clinton Portis - Low

11. Marshawn Lynch - Low

12. Ryan Grant - Moderate

13. Terrell Owens - Low

14. Reggie Wayne - Low

15. Willis McGahee - Moderate

16. Larry Johnson - Moderate

17. Braylon Edwards - Low

18. Peyton Manning - Moderate - He needs his preparation and his injury is preventing that

19. Larry Fitzgerald - Low

20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Moderate

In an auction, I'd only target LT and Portis out of the top 10 RBs. If I don't get any of the top ten players, I won't care. I'd rather have 5-6 2nd and 3rd round type players.

 

[wraith5]

7. Frank Gore - Moderate Risk – The Martz factor is overrated (See “Kevin Jones”). He’ll be the focus, but will anyone be worried about the SF QB beating them?

It was Kevin Jones' problem staying healthy that prevented him from a top ten finish. Gore gets the fragile reputation but KJ is actually the glass man.

There is some legitimacy to your point. But Martz completely abandoned the run multiple times. Last year KJ had <12 rushes eight times and 20 or more rushes three times. Gore >>>>>>>> KJ, but I see SF playing from behind more often than not. And with Martz calling the plays, that makes me nervous.

 

[TheArchitect]

I may come back to nitpick some of the individual player comments you made, but my biggest problem is with your base assumption:"you can't win your league in the 1st round but you can definitely lose it."This gets repeated all the time, but it's not necessarily true.Last year in 4 different leagues my 1st round picks were Larry Johnson, Travis Henry, Willie Parker and Shaun Alexander. I made the playoffs in 3 out of 4 of those leagues, missed the playoffs in the 4 th one by 0.06 points (the Larry Johnson team), and even made it to the finals of a 16 team league with the team that was saddled with Shaun Alexander. Also, in none of those leagues did I have Brady or Moss.I'm not writing the above to brag (of course not - I didn't win any of those leagues last year), I'm just saying the assumption that your team is toast because your 1st round pick busts is wrong. You've still got like 88% of your starting lineup and 95% of your entire roster left to establish - that's way more important than your 1st round pick.I think people focus way too much on the 1st round and not enough on the others. The 1st round is the round most likely to match consensus rankings - there isn't much flexibility in it (even if you think you're a maverick you're probably not, much like John McCain), once you get your 1st round position, you have a pretty good idea of what your two or three options will be. Very few people have the goods to successfully project which "reaches" truly belong in the first round, and beyond that, if you use VBD you're not going to pull those guys up your charts anyway - it lessens the value. To maximize value it makes to take a "consensus" 1st rounder in the 1st round and then draft your high value players later after or around their ADP. If the 1st rounder busts, well you still have your value players, and if he doesn't you're #### of the walk with a bonafide 1st rounder AND your value players.So unless you have a crystal ball, the guess the 1st round bust game isn't going to pay off very often. What can you do?Draft the hell out of the remaining rounds (that's where all but one of your roster spots are determined), make good trades from depth established in those rounds and make productive use of the waiver wire - that's how you win your league.I'm not saying you shouldn't put any thought into your 1st rounder, but the game's not over if your 1st rounder gags.Sorry for the hijack.

 

[teamramrod]

One of the best threads ever.

Living here for a while.

 

[teamramrod]

7. Frank Gore - Moderate Risk – The Martz factor is overrated (See “Kevin Jones”). He’ll be the focus, but will anyone be worried about the SF QB beating them?

It was Kevin Jones' problem staying healthy that prevented him from a top ten finish. Gore gets the fragile reputation but KJ is actually the glass man.

There is some legitimacy to your point. But Martz completely abandoned the run multiple EVERY #######G GAME times. Last year KJ had <12 rushes eight times and 20 or more rushes three times.

Gore >>>>>>>> KJ, but I see SF playing from behind more often than not. And with Martz calling the plays, that makes me nervous.

Sorry, Lions Fan returns this thread to the previously scheduled postings.

 

[Jayrod]

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Low - opp + talent + self-discipline = top back of this generation...he's got 2 solid years left in top 3 RB's

2. Adrian Peterson - Moderate - injury only real risk, but its a big one (RBBC?...Puh-leez)

3. Brian Westbrook - Low/Moderate - similar to ADP, but he's been mostly healthy for two straight years now.

4. Joseph Addai - Low - I can't think of anything to legitimately hit him with...Peyton's knee, Rhodes, etc. are all non-issues

5. Steven Jackson - High - RED FLAGS ABOUND!!! Bad team? check Injury history? check Holdout? check...but...he's one talented RB.

6. Tom Brady - Moderate - regression to mean means too high @ #6. He'll be top 3 QB but that's not worth this spot.

7. Frank Gore - High - No QB, bad team, injury history, pass-happy coach...PPR gets big boost, but won't get many TD's.

8. Randy Moss - Low - will finish #1WR and probably very safe to project 16 TD's

9. Marion Barber - Moderate - same as last year, but can you count on high TD's every year? no (unless its Randy Moss)

10. Clinton Portis - Low/Moderate - only injury risk, but he's a lock to perform when on the field

11. Marshawn Lynch - Low - can't think of many issues here...bad team, but its similar to last year and the schedule is easier this time around, dude's got talent.

12. Ryan Grant - High - boom/bust player.... lots of red flags ala SJax, but he's not as talented and has legit competition

13. Terrell Owens - Low/Moderate - Age is only real issue. He can't keep this up for much longer (can he?)

14. Reggie Wayne - Low - only question is if he goes ballistic or not.... safe bet to be top 5 WR.

15. Willis McGahee - High - pre-season injury + more talented backup = ruh roh (and supporting cast isn't that great)

16. Larry Johnson - Moderate - only real risk at this draft spot is injury. He could easily outperform this position with the number of touches he'll get. More upside than downside, IMO.

17. Braylon Edwards - Low - it's merely a flesh wound. He can get 10+ TD's and over 1,000 yards with his eyes closed.

18. Peyton Manning - Low - so it's a bit more than a flesh wound, but he'll start every game and perform great in 90% of them.

19. Larry Fitzgerald - Low - I could be his QB and get him 1,200 yards (but I am one HECK of an athelete)

20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Low - drafted at his floor, IMO. Any kind of positive change to his situation and he's an RB1 at an RB2 price.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Thanks scoobs... what makes Moss a riskier option than Edwards in your mind?

I like Cleveland this year. Solid offensive line. I also took into account ADP and expectations in my risk assessments. Moss is high risk / high reward based on where he is being drafted. The assessment has as much to do with draft slot than anything.

Why do feel Addai is high risk? And Edwards is one of 2 guys you rate low - that surprises me as well. Fitz I think is a pretty safe top pick regardless of who's throwing him the rock... I'll take my turn here in a minute.

Addai smells like he'll end up like Willie Parker of last year. Where he is being drafted, what he did last year, how the team likes to throw. I just see a huge drop off in TD's for him this year. Manning scares me as well.

 

[Tanner9919]

16. Larry Johnson - Moderate Risk -Hard to get a bead on this one, sure he'll get alot of touches but a drastic drop

WOW, how the mighty have fallen!!

LJ looks really good in preseason, he's going to avg somewhere around 4.3-4.5 per carry this season, and is guaranteed to get 325+ carries..325 x 4.5 = 1462.50 yards..

he's also a lock for 12-15 TDs..

everyone seems to be forgetting about him, and I love it!! can't wait to draft him as a 'steal' in the second round!

has LJ officially entered the 'sleeper' category or what??

 

[WampusCat43]

I just drafted at the turn in a 12-team PPR league. We had several QBs/WRs go in the first, so I was pleasantly surprised to see all these RBs available. I took Portis and Lynch for these reasons so eloquently put by a previous poster.

Give me a good player on a good team over a great player on a crap team any day. Call me risk-averse, but I prefer to have a higher-than-average score every week than a few boom weeks and a lot of busts. I'll do my gambling in the later rounds.

7. Frank Gore - Moderate Risk – The Martz factor is overrated (See “Kevin Jones”). He’ll be the focus, but will anyone be worried about the SF QB beating them?

10. Clinton Portis - Low Risk – I never give this guy the credit he deserves. But he delivers.

11. Marshawn Lynch - Low Risk – He’ll be more of a focus and he’ll be involved in the passing game. The primary risk point IMO is if Trent Edwards misses time.

15. Willis McGahee - High Risk – As of today (8/20) the man can’t even JOG and he has well-hyped talent behind him. You never lose a job due to injury… right?!?

16. Larry Johnson – High Risk – Put LJ in a Bobcat behind that line and he’s still going to average under 3.5 YPC. Croyle will be better, and Bowe / Gonzo give D’s something to think about besides Johnson.

 

[texasheat]

16. Larry Johnson - Moderate Risk -Hard to get a bead on this one, sure he'll get alot of touches but a drastic drop

WOW, how the mighty have fallen!!

LJ looks really good in preseason, he's going to avg somewhere around 4.3-4.5 per carry this season, and is guaranteed to get 325+ carries..325 x 4.5 = 1462.50 yards..

he's also a lock for 12-15 TDs..

everyone seems to be forgetting about him, and I love it!! can't wait to draft him as a 'steal' in the second round!

has LJ officially entered the 'sleeper' category or what??

:(

Ok I agree, he will likely improve on his 3.5 ypc from a year ago, but really what's different this year from last year?If you project his numbers from last year he would look like this:

316 att 1118 yds 3.5 YPC 6 TD 60 rec 372 yds

If you project mild improvement from last year I think a conservative estimate for LJ would look like this:

320 1250 3.9 8TD 40 rec 300 yds = 243 pts in a PPR pretty good.

The question is, what is the risk level that he doesn't reach my conservative projection above?

I didn't realize he was on pace to catch 60 balls last year, almost double his previous career high. That's why I like to hear other opinions on this stuff...

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

Really good topic. Too bad so many people don't get it.In an auction, I'd only target LT and Portis out of the top 10 RBs. If I don't get any of the top ten players, I won't care. I'd rather have 5-6 2nd and 3rd round type players.

I had my auction last night, and I had to wait out overbids on high risk players for the first 30 minutes. Given the opportunity, I'll avoid putting most of my eggs in one basket...instead, I ended up with Romo, Lewis, Stewart, Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Burress, and Witten for starters (12 team league). LT is great, but $46 in a $100 auction is too rich. The most I spent on one player is $16 (Romo and Lewis). Something to consider - my team looks like one that would be equivalent of trading out of the first round...would you trade out of the first to pick up an extra second and third rounder?JB

 

[switz]

League A (local league 1ppr)

1.01 1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

1.02 2. Jackson, Steven STL RB

1.03 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB Finished RB12

1.04 4. Gore, Frank SFO RB Finished RB10

1.05 5. Addai, Joseph IND RB

1.06 6. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Finished RB40

1.07 7. Bush, Reggie NOS RB Finished RB11

1.08 8. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

1.09 9. Benson, Cedric CHI RB Ok I admit, this pick should have never been made... Finished RB27

1.10 10. Parker, Willie PIT RB Finished RB24

1.11 11. Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Finished RB43

1.12 12. Henry, Travis DEN RB Finished RB39

League B (Local league 1ppr) same scoring as league A

1.01 1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

1.02 2. Jackson, Steven STL RB

1.03 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB Finished RB12

1.04 4. Gore, Frank SFO RB

1.05 5. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Finished RB40

1.06 6. Bush, Reggie NOS RB Finished RB11

1.07 7. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

1.08 8. Parker, Willie PIT RB Finished RB24

1.09 9. Addai, Joseph IND RB

1.10 10. Henry, Travis DEN RB Finished RB39

1.11 11. Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Finished RB43

1.12 12. Maroney, Laurence NEP RB Finished RB37

League C (NFFC 14 Teamer) 1/2 ppr for RB 6 pt all TD

1 LaDainian Tomlinson RB

2 Steven Jackson RB

3 Larry Johnson RB Finished RB14

4 Joseph Addai RB

5 Frank Gore RB

6 Reggie Bush RB Finished RB10 (borderline here, some may be ok with this production from #6 overall)

7 Brian Westbrook RB

8 Shaun Alexander RB Finished RB40

9 Willie Parker RB Finished RB24

10 Travis Henry RB Finished RB39

11 Rudi Johnson RB Finished RB44

12 Laurence Maroney RB Finished RB31

13 Steve Smith WR Finished WR15

14 Edgerrin James RB Finished RB19

If a guy finishes within 5 spots of where he's drafted, I wouldn't consider it drastically underperforming. It's the guys drafted in the first round that finished in the 20s or lower for their position that killed their team

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Low Risk - Mileage will become a concern at some point, not this year.

2. Adrian Peterson - Low to Moderate Risk - 2nd Year, in a RBBC but will see plenty of touches. Some say he won't stay healthy.

3. Brian Westbrook - Low Risk - He is gold in PPR, expect much of the same from a year ago.

4. Joseph Addai - Low Risk - He's in a great situation, small concern if Peyton isn't healthy.

5. Steven Jackson - Moderate to High Risk - He's on a bad team with a bad O-line, assuming he reports soon, missing all of camp is never a good thing

6. Tom Brady - Low Risk - He'll be a top 3 QB, but at this price is it worth it? I say no.

7. Frank Gore - Moderate Risk - New Offense, bad team, revolving door at QB. Will be playing from behind alot, ok if he is a big part of the passing game.

8. Randy Moss - Low Risk - Hard to imagine 23 TD's again, but it's also hard to imagine him not being a top 3 WR in '08

9. Marion Barber - Moderate Risk hasn't been the feature back, Felix Jones will be the primary RB pass catcher, has almost no upside over where he finished a year ago.

10. Clinton Portis - Low Risk New offense, has been the model of consistency over the years when healthy

11. Marshawn Lynch - Low Risk Only his 2nd year in the league

12. Ryan Grant - Moderate Risk Classic boom or bust pick in my mind. There are a host of capable RBs on the roster he also missed some camp and is currently nursing an injury.

13. Terrell Owens -Low to Moderate Risk Age is a factor here, will see lots of double coverage with no real deep threat opposite him.

14. Reggie Wayne -Moderate Risk - His QB isn't healthy at the moment, Harrison is back but will that help or hurt his production?

15. Willis McGahee - Moderate to High Risk - Can't ignore his knee troubles both current and past. Oh yea and there is Ray Rice.

16. Larry Johnson - Moderate Risk -Hard to get a bead on this one, sure he'll get alot of touches but a drastic drop in YPC is troubling (see Shawn Alexander)

17. Braylon Edwards - Low to Moderate Risk -Could be spending time with a new QB at some point this year. Currently missing camp time with leg injury

18. Peyton Manning - Moderate to High Risk - He'll end up being fine, but at 18 overall I want someone who's been in camp and is currently healthy.

19. Larry Fitzgerald - Moderate Risk - Warner out, Leinart in. Boldin could cause trouble in the locker room, if he stays with the team.

20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Moderate Risk -Everyone keeps waiting for Fred Taylor to take a back seat. Could this be the year?

The guys in red will likely disappoint.Westbrook - unless you're in PPR, he's not finished in the top-5 more than once previously. And after last year he's the consensus #3? Recipe for disaster.

Brady - No QB should be a first round pick!!!! He's not going to throw 50 TDs again, he probably won't even be the #1 QB at the end of the season.

Barber - He's never rushed for 1,000 yards. Last year he received 100 more touches and didn't improve his performance that much. He has more of a threat to touches in the backfield than he ever has. And he's on a team that passes for TDs now.

 

[Captain Hook]

For those that rated the players for risk, I am very curious why most of you rate Portis low risk - he has a ton of mileage in his seven years and has had several injuries to deal with. There don't seem to be any training camp injuries this year, but IMO he has to be a Moderate risk.

 

[I Am Rick James]

League A (local league 1ppr)

1.01 1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

1.02 2. Jackson, Steven STL RB

1.03 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB Finished RB12

1.04 4. Gore, Frank SFO RB Finished RB10

1.05 5. Addai, Joseph IND RB

1.06 6. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Finished RB40

1.07 7. Bush, Reggie NOS RB Finished RB11

1.08 8. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

1.09 9. Benson, Cedric CHI RB Ok I admit, this pick should have never been made... Finished RB27

1.10 10. Parker, Willie PIT RB Finished RB24

1.11 11. Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Finished RB43

1.12 12. Henry, Travis DEN RB Finished RB39

League B (Local league 1ppr) same scoring as league A

1.01 1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

1.02 2. Jackson, Steven STL RB

1.03 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB Finished RB12

1.04 4. Gore, Frank SFO RB

1.05 5. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Finished RB40

1.06 6. Bush, Reggie NOS RB Finished RB11

1.07 7. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

1.08 8. Parker, Willie PIT RB Finished RB24

1.09 9. Addai, Joseph IND RB

1.10 10. Henry, Travis DEN RB Finished RB39

1.11 11. Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Finished RB43

1.12 12. Maroney, Laurence NEP RB Finished RB37

League C (NFFC 14 Teamer) 1/2 ppr for RB 6 pt all TD

1 LaDainian Tomlinson RB

2 Steven Jackson RB

3 Larry Johnson RB Finished RB14

4 Joseph Addai RB

5 Frank Gore RB

6 Reggie Bush RB Finished RB10 (borderline here, some may be ok with this production from #6 overall)

7 Brian Westbrook RB

8 Shaun Alexander RB Finished RB40

9 Willie Parker RB Finished RB24

10 Travis Henry RB Finished RB39

11 Rudi Johnson RB Finished RB44

12 Laurence Maroney RB Finished RB31

13 Steve Smith WR Finished WR15

14 Edgerrin James RB Finished RB19

If a guy finishes within 5 spots of where he's drafted, I wouldn't consider it drastically underperforming. It's the guys drafted in the first round that finished in the 20s or lower for their position that killed their team

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Low Risk - Mileage will become a concern at some point, not this year.

2. Adrian Peterson - Low to Moderate Risk - 2nd Year, in a RBBC but will see plenty of touches. Some say he won't stay healthy.

3. Brian Westbrook - Low Risk - He is gold in PPR, expect much of the same from a year ago.

4. Joseph Addai - Low Risk - He's in a great situation, small concern if Peyton isn't healthy.

5. Steven Jackson - Moderate to High Risk - He's on a bad team with a bad O-line, assuming he reports soon, missing all of camp is never a good thing

6. Tom Brady - Low Risk - He'll be a top 3 QB, but at this price is it worth it? I say no.

7. Frank Gore - Moderate Risk - New Offense, bad team, revolving door at QB. Will be playing from behind alot, ok if he is a big part of the passing game.

8. Randy Moss - Low Risk - Hard to imagine 23 TD's again, but it's also hard to imagine him not being a top 3 WR in '08

9. Marion Barber - Moderate Risk hasn't been the feature back, Felix Jones will be the primary RB pass catcher, has almost no upside over where he finished a year ago.

10. Clinton Portis - Low Risk New offense, has been the model of consistency over the years when healthy

11. Marshawn Lynch - Low Risk Only his 2nd year in the league

12. Ryan Grant - Moderate Risk Classic boom or bust pick in my mind. There are a host of capable RBs on the roster he also missed some camp and is currently nursing an injury.

13. Terrell Owens -Low to Moderate Risk Age is a factor here, will see lots of double coverage with no real deep threat opposite him.

14. Reggie Wayne -Moderate Risk - His QB isn't healthy at the moment, Harrison is back but will that help or hurt his production?

15. Willis McGahee - Moderate to High Risk - Can't ignore his knee troubles both current and past. Oh yea and there is Ray Rice.

16. Larry Johnson - Moderate Risk -Hard to get a bead on this one, sure he'll get alot of touches but a drastic drop in YPC is troubling (see Shawn Alexander)

17. Braylon Edwards - Low to Moderate Risk -Could be spending time with a new QB at some point this year. Currently missing camp time with leg injury

18. Peyton Manning - Moderate to High Risk - He'll end up being fine, but at 18 overall I want someone who's been in camp and is currently healthy.

19. Larry Fitzgerald - Moderate Risk - Warner out, Leinart in. Boldin could cause trouble in the locker room, if he stays with the team.

20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Moderate Risk -Everyone keeps waiting for Fred Taylor to take a back seat. Could this be the year?

The guys in red will likely disappoint.Westbrook - unless you're in PPR, he's not finished in the top-5 more than once previously. And after last year he's the consensus #3? Recipe for disaster.

Brady - No QB should be a first round pick!!!! He's not going to throw 50 TDs again, he probably won't even be the #1 QB at the end of the season.

Barber - He's never rushed for 1,000 yards. Last year he received 100 more touches and didn't improve his performance that much. He has more of a threat to touches in the backfield than he ever has. And he's on a team that passes for TDs now.

I disagree with the bolded statementsWesty, didn't he finish in the top 3 the last 2 years? Even with a injured QB at times. Whether or not his team was in a playoff race? He is also first or second in weekly consistantcy and his cuff is real cheap

Brady may not throw more than 32 TD's this year but the point of this thread is to navigate the mindfield of busts and he is a near lock to finish top 3 at his position, hence a great option for those who want to avoid a first round bust!

Barber gets many of his points from TD's, he isn't very consistant on a weekly basis, but he finished RB7 last year and his carries will go up between a little and a lot. The only thing you seem to be predicting is injury. Did Quan get traded to the Cowboys? They are and were a passing team so that point is kinda????

 

[I Am Rick James]

I very much get the point of this thread and always draft my first 6 pics with one thing in mind. AVOID BUSTS!Like you I have kept cheatsheets from previous years and studied what went wrong and it seems that around 50% of the first 2 rounds are riddled with bust and/or serious under performers. Out of those 50% about half are due to injury and the other half is some combination of body/team/overrated I'm going to attempt to locate the 50% mines in this field including injury.

1. Ladainian Tomlinson - 2. Adrian Peterson - Injury, but I sure hope not 3. Brian Westbrook - 4. Joseph Addai - 5. Steven Jackson - Will go the same path as LJ did in '07 and if stays healthy will still be out of the top 10 RB's6. Tom Brady -7. Frank Gore - Same as SJax8. Randy Moss - 9. Marion Barber - 10. Clinton Portis - 11. Marshawn Lynch - Same as SJax although at this spot, won't be as bad12. Ryan Grant - Favre factor ruins value, high risk for sure. Should be a third rounder13. Terrell Owens - Age will contribute to falling #'s and maybe injury14. Reggie Wayne - 15. Willis McGahee - Injury and Rice clipping at his heals makes his a third rounder16. Larry Johnson - ZERO reason to think he will improve on '07 but if he stays healthy, will finish RB1317. Braylon Edwards - Falls due to QB problems, finishes WR1218. Peyton Manning - 19. Larry Fitzgerald - Disappoints without Warner and Quan becomes WR120. Maurice Jones-Drew -

I'm sure to miss on a few, but that's my best guess