As part of my draft prep every year I always like to take a look back at the drafts of a year ago in the main leagues I play in. This year, upon doing so, I was astounded at how many owner's seasons were doomed from the very first pick! Obviously hind site is 20/20, but as we take a closer look, I have to ask was the writing on the wall and we just chose to ignore it? Also, I'll give my opinion on where the greatest risk lies in the top 20 or so. We've all heard the saying, you can't win your league in the 1st round but you can definitely lose it. So much of our study or prep is focused on finding that diamond in the rough I think sometimes we fail to see warning signs that are staring us right in the face.
I know it's inevitable, but I'll ask anyway: Let's not turn this into "I would've never drafted x player or y player" or "Wow I want to be in your league!" This is about trying to identify risk in the early picks.
*it's important to note that I am not factoring in injuries for the sake of this thread. Injuries can happen to anyone at any point in the draft.
So let's take a look at 3 different 1st rounds from my main leagues last year and see what we can learn (if anything). I have bolded the players that underperformed their 1st round ADP from last year. In addition I added their end of year rank based on points per game, not total points. (gives us a better indication on those players that may not have played a full 16 games)
League A (local league 1ppr)
1.01 1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB
1.02 2. Jackson, Steven STL RB
1.03 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB Finished RB12
1.04 4. Gore, Frank SFO RB Finished RB10
1.05 5. Addai, Joseph IND RB
1.06 6. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Finished RB40
1.07 7. Bush, Reggie NOS RB Finished RB11
1.08 8. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
1.09 9. Benson, Cedric CHI RB Ok I admit, this pick should have never been made... Finished RB27
1.10 10. Parker, Willie PIT RB Finished RB24
1.11 11. Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Finished RB43
1.12 12. Henry, Travis DEN RB Finished RB39
League B (Local league 1ppr) same scoring as league A
1.01 1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB
1.02 2. Jackson, Steven STL RB
1.03 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB Finished RB12
1.04 4. Gore, Frank SFO RB
1.05 5. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Finished RB40
1.06 6. Bush, Reggie NOS RB Finished RB11
1.07 7. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
1.08 8. Parker, Willie PIT RB Finished RB24
1.09 9. Addai, Joseph IND RB
1.10 10. Henry, Travis DEN RB Finished RB39
1.11 11. Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Finished RB43
1.12 12. Maroney, Laurence NEP RB Finished RB37
League C (NFFC 14 Teamer) 1/2 ppr for RB 6 pt all TD
1 LaDainian Tomlinson RB
2 Steven Jackson RB
3 Larry Johnson RB Finished RB14
4 Joseph Addai RB
5 Frank Gore RB
6 Reggie Bush RB Finished RB10 (borderline here, some may be ok with this production from #6 overall)
7 Brian Westbrook RB
8 Shaun Alexander RB Finished RB40
9 Willie Parker RB Finished RB24
10 Travis Henry RB Finished RB39
11 Rudi Johnson RB Finished RB44
12 Laurence Maroney RB Finished RB31
13 Steve Smith WR Finished WR15
14 Edgerrin James RB Finished RB19
These results were eye opening for me. I knew that some of these guys were bad last year, but more than half of the first rounders in all three of these leagues grossly underperformed their 1st round ADP. Maybe last year was an anomaly, but the point here is that there is a very real threat of ruining your team before you even get out of the first round.
We all see the threads every year along these lines: "Who is this year's Colsten?" "Who is this year's Brady?" "Who is this year's Jamal Lewis?". I think the more critical question to be asking is "Who is this year's Alexander or Henry?"
This is where you, the Shark Pool, come in. After all, I'm no expert but I'll give it my best shot below. Here are the current top20 (debatable I know but stick with me here) along with a risk value and a comment:
Again, I don't put much weight in risk of injury for the sake of this argument but if it's worth mentioning in extreme cases, I will.
1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Low Risk - Mileage will become a concern at some point, not this year.
2. Adrian Peterson - Low to Moderate Risk - 2nd Year, in a RBBC but will see plenty of touches. Some say he won't stay healthy.
3. Brian Westbrook - Low Risk - He is gold in PPR, expect much of the same from a year ago.
4. Joseph Addai - Low Risk - He's in a great situation, small concern if Peyton isn't healthy.
5. Steven Jackson - Moderate to High Risk - He's on a bad team with a bad O-line, assuming he reports soon, missing all of camp is never a good thing
6. Tom Brady - Low Risk - He'll be a top 3 QB, but at this price is it worth it? I say no.
7. Frank Gore - Moderate Risk - New Offense, bad team, revolving door at QB. Will be playing from behind alot, ok if he is a big part of the passing game.
8. Randy Moss - Low Risk - Hard to imagine 23 TD's again, but it's also hard to imagine him not being a top 3 WR in '08
9. Marion Barber - Moderate Risk hasn't been the feature back, Felix Jones will be the primary RB pass catcher, has almost no upside over where he finished a year ago.
10. Clinton Portis - Low Risk New offense, has been the model of consistency over the years when healthy
11. Marshawn Lynch - Low Risk Only his 2nd year in the league
12. Ryan Grant - Moderate Risk Classic boom or bust pick in my mind. There are a host of capable RBs on the roster he also missed some camp and is currently nursing an injury.
13. Terrell Owens -Low to Moderate Risk Age is a factor here, will see lots of double coverage with no real deep threat opposite him.
14. Reggie Wayne -Moderate Risk - His QB isn't healthy at the moment, Harrison is back but will that help or hurt his production?
15. Willis McGahee - Moderate to High Risk - Can't ignore his knee troubles both current and past. Oh yea and there is Ray Rice.
16. Larry Johnson - Moderate Risk -Hard to get a bead on this one, sure he'll get alot of touches but a drastic drop in YPC is troubling (see Shawn Alexander)
17. Braylon Edwards - Low to Moderate Risk -Could be spending time with a new QB at some point this year. Currently missing camp time with leg injury
18. Peyton Manning - Moderate to High Risk - He'll end up being fine, but at 18 overall I want someone who's been in camp and is currently healthy.
19. Larry Fitzgerald - Moderate Risk - Warner out, Leinart in. Boldin could cause trouble in the locker room, if he stays with the team.
20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Moderate Risk -Everyone keeps waiting for Fred Taylor to take a back seat. Could this be the year?
So there you have it, my "Risk Analysis" of the current top 20. I'd love to hear some feedback from the FBG community on why I have it all wrong or maybe something I may have overlooked. Thanks for making it this far!
I know it's inevitable, but I'll ask anyway: Let's not turn this into "I would've never drafted x player or y player" or "Wow I want to be in your league!" This is about trying to identify risk in the early picks.
*it's important to note that I am not factoring in injuries for the sake of this thread. Injuries can happen to anyone at any point in the draft.
So let's take a look at 3 different 1st rounds from my main leagues last year and see what we can learn (if anything). I have bolded the players that underperformed their 1st round ADP from last year. In addition I added their end of year rank based on points per game, not total points. (gives us a better indication on those players that may not have played a full 16 games)
League A (local league 1ppr)
1.01 1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB
1.02 2. Jackson, Steven STL RB
1.03 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB Finished RB12
1.04 4. Gore, Frank SFO RB Finished RB10
1.05 5. Addai, Joseph IND RB
1.06 6. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Finished RB40
1.07 7. Bush, Reggie NOS RB Finished RB11
1.08 8. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
1.09 9. Benson, Cedric CHI RB Ok I admit, this pick should have never been made... Finished RB27
1.10 10. Parker, Willie PIT RB Finished RB24
1.11 11. Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Finished RB43
1.12 12. Henry, Travis DEN RB Finished RB39
League B (Local league 1ppr) same scoring as league A
1.01 1. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB
1.02 2. Jackson, Steven STL RB
1.03 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB Finished RB12
1.04 4. Gore, Frank SFO RB
1.05 5. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Finished RB40
1.06 6. Bush, Reggie NOS RB Finished RB11
1.07 7. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
1.08 8. Parker, Willie PIT RB Finished RB24
1.09 9. Addai, Joseph IND RB
1.10 10. Henry, Travis DEN RB Finished RB39
1.11 11. Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Finished RB43
1.12 12. Maroney, Laurence NEP RB Finished RB37
League C (NFFC 14 Teamer) 1/2 ppr for RB 6 pt all TD
1 LaDainian Tomlinson RB
2 Steven Jackson RB
3 Larry Johnson RB Finished RB14
4 Joseph Addai RB
5 Frank Gore RB
6 Reggie Bush RB Finished RB10 (borderline here, some may be ok with this production from #6 overall)
7 Brian Westbrook RB
8 Shaun Alexander RB Finished RB40
9 Willie Parker RB Finished RB24
10 Travis Henry RB Finished RB39
11 Rudi Johnson RB Finished RB44
12 Laurence Maroney RB Finished RB31
13 Steve Smith WR Finished WR15
14 Edgerrin James RB Finished RB19
These results were eye opening for me. I knew that some of these guys were bad last year, but more than half of the first rounders in all three of these leagues grossly underperformed their 1st round ADP. Maybe last year was an anomaly, but the point here is that there is a very real threat of ruining your team before you even get out of the first round.
We all see the threads every year along these lines: "Who is this year's Colsten?" "Who is this year's Brady?" "Who is this year's Jamal Lewis?". I think the more critical question to be asking is "Who is this year's Alexander or Henry?"
This is where you, the Shark Pool, come in. After all, I'm no expert but I'll give it my best shot below. Here are the current top20 (debatable I know but stick with me here) along with a risk value and a comment:
Again, I don't put much weight in risk of injury for the sake of this argument but if it's worth mentioning in extreme cases, I will.
1. Ladainian Tomlinson - Low Risk - Mileage will become a concern at some point, not this year.
2. Adrian Peterson - Low to Moderate Risk - 2nd Year, in a RBBC but will see plenty of touches. Some say he won't stay healthy.
3. Brian Westbrook - Low Risk - He is gold in PPR, expect much of the same from a year ago.
4. Joseph Addai - Low Risk - He's in a great situation, small concern if Peyton isn't healthy.
5. Steven Jackson - Moderate to High Risk - He's on a bad team with a bad O-line, assuming he reports soon, missing all of camp is never a good thing
6. Tom Brady - Low Risk - He'll be a top 3 QB, but at this price is it worth it? I say no.
7. Frank Gore - Moderate Risk - New Offense, bad team, revolving door at QB. Will be playing from behind alot, ok if he is a big part of the passing game.
8. Randy Moss - Low Risk - Hard to imagine 23 TD's again, but it's also hard to imagine him not being a top 3 WR in '08
9. Marion Barber - Moderate Risk hasn't been the feature back, Felix Jones will be the primary RB pass catcher, has almost no upside over where he finished a year ago.
10. Clinton Portis - Low Risk New offense, has been the model of consistency over the years when healthy
11. Marshawn Lynch - Low Risk Only his 2nd year in the league
12. Ryan Grant - Moderate Risk Classic boom or bust pick in my mind. There are a host of capable RBs on the roster he also missed some camp and is currently nursing an injury.
13. Terrell Owens -Low to Moderate Risk Age is a factor here, will see lots of double coverage with no real deep threat opposite him.
14. Reggie Wayne -Moderate Risk - His QB isn't healthy at the moment, Harrison is back but will that help or hurt his production?
15. Willis McGahee - Moderate to High Risk - Can't ignore his knee troubles both current and past. Oh yea and there is Ray Rice.
16. Larry Johnson - Moderate Risk -Hard to get a bead on this one, sure he'll get alot of touches but a drastic drop in YPC is troubling (see Shawn Alexander)
17. Braylon Edwards - Low to Moderate Risk -Could be spending time with a new QB at some point this year. Currently missing camp time with leg injury
18. Peyton Manning - Moderate to High Risk - He'll end up being fine, but at 18 overall I want someone who's been in camp and is currently healthy.
19. Larry Fitzgerald - Moderate Risk - Warner out, Leinart in. Boldin could cause trouble in the locker room, if he stays with the team.
20. Maurice Jones-Drew - Moderate Risk -Everyone keeps waiting for Fred Taylor to take a back seat. Could this be the year?
So there you have it, my "Risk Analysis" of the current top 20. I'd love to hear some feedback from the FBG community on why I have it all wrong or maybe something I may have overlooked. Thanks for making it this far!
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