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NFL Week 1 wagering thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Routilla
- Start date
Routilla
Footballguy
Interesting. That is the one game I am staying away from.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Rarely do I like road favorites who are a TD+ favorite, especially this early in the season. Seems like 9 is a lot to give in week one at Oakland.
Baltimore should roll KC but again, that's a lot of points this early to give. I usually lay off these early weeks but I might drop a few beats in here and there. Seahawks -7 seems like a good play.
Baltimore should roll KC but again, that's a lot of points this early to give. I usually lay off these early weeks but I might drop a few beats in here and there. Seahawks -7 seems like a good play.
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Confounding the "experts", Philly runs the ball 30+ times and beats Carolina at their own game with time of possession.Carolina is the one that is banged up, not Philly. The Eagles lost their MLB but on the first day of Training Camp. Carolina has 3 DTs and they're not very good. Philly is piecing together their starting OL, which has yet to play together - but that's not that big of an issue when you consider that it is just preseason reps anyway.The Eagles will study the AZ/CAR game from last year and bring pressure on Delhomme. I expect it to be a bad opening day for Carolina unless they can pick up a lot of big gains on the ground. My money would be on the Eagles (despite their historically poor starts under Andy Reid).Also for Carolina, Beason is banged up and not necessarily at full strength. Same for one of their starting DBs whose name escapes me right now.
I completely agree with the Vikings and Giants. I actually like Miami over Atlanta.SD -9 @Oakland seems like the best bet to me, its either them or the Vikings.Arizona -6 vs. San Fran is another one I like.
Routilla
Footballguy
Another one I'm staying away from. I could see either team winning by 10 points.
Todem
Footballguy
That is the game I am keying on. The Bills can't score and the Patriots are going to put up at least 28 points.Pats - 34
Bills -13
LHUCKS
Footballguy
The thing about the Pats is that BB is such a *******, he'll keep throwing bombs to Moss even if they're up 28...lock city.
Gordon Keith
Footballguy
Which online service do you guys use? Are there some better than others? TIA.
Routilla
Footballguy
I use theGreek.com
BillyBarooo
Footballguy
Just to provide the other side of this point, i actually LOVE the early season lines and do most of my heavy moves in weeks 1,2 and 3. I dont know if its the books setting strange lines as they begin to understand the makeup of various teams, or if its their reaction to the betting public being scattered early in the year (maybe some homerism in the betting patterns). Either way, i've found a lot of success early in the NFL season.That said, my early take is Pats -10.5, Vikings -4.5, and o45.5 in CHi-GB
Andy Herron
Footballguy
I tend to agree here. Although it's been years since I've done any wagering, I always found the early season lines to be very advantageous and a great way to build your bankroll. It's October when you have to be careful. Just when you think you have somebody figured out they bite you one way or the other.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
yeah, of the four, I like this one the least. Giants are definitely a better football team and they're in their own house so I have it as a decent but not great play. The Pats game will make or break my week, as I've hammered it.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Oakland has moments in their own house and I think they're a bit better than they've shown in the preseason. Nine is a lot of points for a homedog vs. a division rival.SF plays AZ very tough recently and AZ looked pretty bad in the preseason. If you put a gun to my head I'd probably still take AZ, but there are better plays this week so I'm staying away.
Bankerguy
Footballguy
Pretty please?
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I like to go moneyline on dogs because if I'm betting a dog, I often believe they have a shot at winning...just a personal philosophy.Anyhow, why do you like the Rams? I hate them this week.Things I like:1. Home dogs2. Teams getting 6+ points vs a division rival3. Big underdogs in week one (expect the unexpected)My 3 team parlay:Rams + 7.5 at Seahawks (my favorite pick of the week)49ers + 6.5 at ArizonaRaiders +9 vs San Diego
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Bankerguy
Footballguy
Nice, I didn't know that. My Picks-Using Sports Inerction lines:
Over or under
By spread
=======================
Over
Pittsburgh
Over
Miami
Under
Kansas City
Over
Carolina
Over
Denver
Under
Minny
Under
NY Jets
Under
Jacksonville
Under
New Orleans
Over
Dallas
Under
San Fran
Over
Washington
Under
St Louis
Over
Chicago
Under
New England
Over
San Diego
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Manster
Footballguy
i like:
Atlanta -4 i'm likin ATL to start off hot at home. this might be my least fave. of the games here, though.
Balt. -10 KC is not good. Baltimore is. game in Baltimore
Hou. -4.5 Sanchez going to Houston for 1st NFL start +Houston up and coming defense=big win for Houston
Ind. -7 Indy at home, MJD???
Sea. -7.5 Hass fresh, Seattle at home vs. a crappy Rams team
GB -3.5 i like the home team in this matchup, and Cutler + Bears might not be gelled quite yet.
NE -10.5 Buffalo has a crappy O-line. Brady is gonna be on fire.
im lookin for these home teams to prevail against lesser opponents.
Atlanta -4 i'm likin ATL to start off hot at home. this might be my least fave. of the games here, though.
Balt. -10 KC is not good. Baltimore is. game in Baltimore
Hou. -4.5 Sanchez going to Houston for 1st NFL start +Houston up and coming defense=big win for Houston
Ind. -7 Indy at home, MJD???
Sea. -7.5 Hass fresh, Seattle at home vs. a crappy Rams team
GB -3.5 i like the home team in this matchup, and Cutler + Bears might not be gelled quite yet.
NE -10.5 Buffalo has a crappy O-line. Brady is gonna be on fire.
im lookin for these home teams to prevail against lesser opponents.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
My buddy says the same thing and he cleans up in the first few weeks. I tend to do poorly because it takes a few weeks for me to get settled with all the teams.
Mr. Justin Case
Footballguy
Detroit for the win.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Unders seem to come in the last few years. Teams hardly play their starters in the preseason.Playing a 2-team 7-point teaser big to start the season:SD -3Chi/GB over 39.5abrecher said:
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FairWarning
Footballguy
Gordon Keith - The Greek, BetJamaica, and 5 Dimes are all highly rated books. Don't worry about big bonuses, these three are solid and will pay. The Greek and 5 Dimes also offer fantasy football props and other props.
kroyrunner89
Footballguy
I know that there was a thread like this in the forum occasionally last year, I'd like to bring it back and try to make it a weekly thing. I'll throw it up early in the week every week and hopefully there will be some interest. Here are some Week 1 lines, I'd love to hear what you guys like so far. A few of these looks just a little too easy... it'd be nice to avoid the traps. I'll post up my plays later this week too.
Week 1:
Titans +6 @ Steelers 35
Dolphins +4 @ Falcons 44
Chiefs +13 @ Ravens 36
Eagles -2 @ Panthers 43.5
Broncos +4.5 @ Bengals 43.5
Vikings -4 @ Browns 40
Jets +4.5 @ Texans 44
Jaguars +7 @ Colts 44
Lions +13 @ Saints 49.5
Cowboys -6 @ Buccaneers 39
49ers +6.5 @ Cardinals 46.5
Redskins +6.5 @ Giants 37
Rams +8.5 @ Seahawks 41.5
Bears +4 @ Packers 46.5
Bills +10.5 @ Patriots 47.5
Chargers -9.5 @ Raiders 43
Week 1:
Titans +6 @ Steelers 35
Dolphins +4 @ Falcons 44
Chiefs +13 @ Ravens 36
Eagles -2 @ Panthers 43.5
Broncos +4.5 @ Bengals 43.5
Vikings -4 @ Browns 40
Jets +4.5 @ Texans 44
Jaguars +7 @ Colts 44
Lions +13 @ Saints 49.5
Cowboys -6 @ Buccaneers 39
49ers +6.5 @ Cardinals 46.5
Redskins +6.5 @ Giants 37
Rams +8.5 @ Seahawks 41.5
Bears +4 @ Packers 46.5
Bills +10.5 @ Patriots 47.5
Chargers -9.5 @ Raiders 43
The Jacket
Footballguy
I was all over BAL-9. But -13 is awfully high. I'm tempted to bet KC+13 at a half-hedge and see if I can get lucky with the huge four point difference.
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I believe Jeff [staff member] did this last yearI like Dolphins +4
Bengals -4.5
Browns +4
Redskins +4.5
Packers -4
TheWick
Footballguy
I did it last year quite a few times in the beginning of the season...if you want to...go right ahead and do it. I'll put my 2 cents in every week.
kroyrunner89
Footballguy
wick, if you want to do it again be my guest don't mean to steal your thunder lol. regardless of whether i post it up or you do, should serve the same purpose. quick question, it looks like a mod did something with this thread?... why does it say "please delete if honda"? we can sort that all out later i guess haha. i've got some early leans, i'll post my final decisions later in the week. one of my biggest question marks is vikings -4, its one of those lines that seems too good to be true. here's what i'm leaning towards so far:
Atlanta -4
Minnesota -4
Jacksonville +7
Broncos/Bengals OVER 43.5
Saints/Lions OVER 48.5
Atlanta -4
Minnesota -4
Jacksonville +7
Broncos/Bengals OVER 43.5
Saints/Lions OVER 48.5
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kroyrunner89
Footballguy
I'd like to hear what you're thinking about the Dolphins in this spot, Atlanta plays much better at home and I just don't think Miami can keep up with them.
TheWick
Footballguy
I'll chime in tomorrowkroyrunner89
Footballguy
i'm not so sure about teasing 4 teams, there's always something that doesn't go as expected. if you do though, i think the best 4 teams to tease would be NO, NE, BAL, and SFHow about a ten point tease withbal,ne,sdI'm not a big tease player but week 1 it might be fun
kroyrunner89
Footballguy
agreed, i think that game is not nearly as safe of a bet as many people think. i certainly wouldn't recommend cleveland, i'll probably just stay away
Routilla
Footballguy
MIN is one of my locks for the week. I can't believe they are not at least a 7 pt favorite.
kroyrunner89
Footballguy
oh man please don't use the word "lock". please. i'm begging you...
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
#1 rule, never take road favorites, but i cant help but to love the Vikings -4. Those four points might be more than the Browns actually score. Im am not a big believer in Favre anymore, but he should be good for the first few weeks. There wont be any bad weather this early in the season either. I would probably bet the Vikings ST/def outscores the Browns. On the 1-8 unit scale, this one has to be good for a 4.
I also like the Raiders and Seahawks for a unit or two.
I also like the Raiders and Seahawks for a unit or two.
kroyrunner89
Footballguy
I'm loving SF +6.5 this week... I think they might take that one outright. No aspect of Arizona's game looked good in the preseason
Manster
Footballguy
looks like the Balt. line went to -13. if anything, i'd lean toward KC now. might not touch this one.i'm startin to like Oak at +9.5.might put together a 3 team parly:ATL -4HOU -4.5GB -4
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