kutta
Footballguy
Good. I was worried for a bit there.
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*** OFFICIAL *** 13/14 Off-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
- Start date
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
renesauz
IBL Representative
Easier to list the ones who are owned, but not sure it matters. WHoever the RB1 is, from what I can tell in Devy leagues there's about a 60% chance he's already rostered. Similar for RB2 and WR1. A 1.01 in a devy could be the same as a 1.01 in a regular league, or as low as a 1.03, but rarely lower. Obviously the top current names are gone (Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, etc.)
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Graham but it may be closer with nonPPR than a slam dunk...still Graham by a good margin though
I'll take Adams for the difference between a 1st and a 2nd
I'll take the picks. 1.01 will still be worth alot next year and I am not a great Evans supporter
18 RBs and 6 WRs are already on rosters.
Some OK talent left at RB (Drake, Marshall OR, Allen, Madden, Abdullah, etc)
WRs probably will have one or two that will go in the first round (Strong, Aghlor, Greenberry, Davis, Montgomery)
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Dynasty salary cap league:
Giovanni Bernard for AJ Green
Giovanni Bernard for AJ Green
kutta
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Yeah, AJ is the guy I'd want, too. But that's what makes salary cap leagues interesting.
AJ's cap figure is $31 ($100 salary cap). Gio's number is only $16 and we can franchise one player - in this case, Gio franchise is only $1.
No contract length?
Think I would be OK on either side but Gio is pretty attractive at that cost
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
We don't do contracts. Price of players fluctuates year to year based on year-end performance.
I guess that will encourage trading but sort of punishes smart buys on breakout players.
Curious what that means for a Julio Jones or Alshon Jeffery?
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I picked up Alshon for only $5 before he blew up. His performance hikes up his cap figure to $21, but I get to franchise him once for $5. Julio's been owned by the same person since his rookie season. Since Julio got hurt last year, his cap figure is only $8 - which was his original purchase price as a rookie.
cstu
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Watkins / FootballCR69 said:
renesauz
IBL Representative
Because there are always multiple players who emerge. First round picks, especially early ones, are often downgraded too much in devy leagues IMO. As an example, the first five picks in this leagues rookie draft this year were Evans, Ebron, Sankey, Cooks, and Hyde. You can find these same five in the top 7 or 8 picks of most NON DEVY rookie drafts this year.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
pick on the wrong side??jeaton6 said:
I dont care for either player really, but jennings should at least score points for someone this year
jeaton6
Footballguy
Exactly my thoughts when I saw the trade. Strange thing is guy taking Pierce is win now and drafted Jennings in 7th, Pierce drafted in 11th (before Ray rice suspension) and to me Pierces value certainly hasn't increased post suspension.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
DLF ADP had Pierce going about a round and a half before Jennings in July, and I'd imagine some Jennings owners might be getting worried after the first preseason game, (though I think any such worry is absurdly premature.)
jeaton6
Footballguy
I see it as 13 spots in DLF but either way it's interesting to me that mocks 1-3 his ADP was 91 and 4-6 they were 116. Not sure of mock timing but seems to indicate (though really small sample) that as word came out on likely shorter Rice suspension Pierces ADP crept up (2 full rounds) and pretty much aligned with Jennings in mocks 4-6.
Anyways, I agree with you that the worry is premature if anything I saw Jennings as a guy who is going to get a lot of work, maybe not goal line but lots of dump offs which will make him very valuable in PPR this year.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
DLF runs all six of its mocks concurrently, so if Pierce went later in mocks 4-6 than he did in mocks 1-3, that was just random chance. They should have the August mocks up before too long and then we'll get a pretty good feel for what impact Rice's suspension had on Pierce (though the August mocks will have started too early to capture the overreaction to Jennings' first preseason game.)
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I would think the 2 game Rice suspension would HURT Pierce's value, since I think people previously expected more games for Rice.
cstu
Footballguy
There was a possibility that Rice wouldn't have been suspended at all (what Gordon drafters are thinking right now).
I'd much rather have a talented 24 yo RB who will be starting the first 2 games of the season over a 29 yo RB who is competing with a talented rookie.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Depends. I dont think Pierce is as talented as most other people do, and I think Jennings wil at least provide some points for now.
CBower4545
Footballguy
Gave 2015 4th and 5th
For
Greg Jennings
For
Greg Jennings
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
I think Jennings does not have much left, but for that price I would easily take Greg.
Yeah although I would say that is a pretty solid overpay. Even up would be close for me considering Jennings should get alot of work this year
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Obviously some of the guys available will emerge as better than some of the ones who aren't, but that's a lot different than saying they will emerge as better than all of the ones who aren't. Seeing how you already have 18 RBs rostered, I'd say it's a much higher than 60% chance that the RB1 (and RB2) already are. That's why it matters- if there were only say 10 RBs rostered, the "field" is that much larger, increasing your chances of someone emerging.
Still always someone ends up being worthy of a high pick and guys always wonder how he slipped through the devy drafts. If that wasn't the case devy leagues wouldn't have rookie drafts at all and just have a devy draft.
Evans is not worth 2 2015 1sts imo even devalued ones when one is likely 1.01.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm the former Evans owner, and these are my thoughts as well. It's the mid-to-late first round picks that take the biggest hit. I don't know that there will be a prospect on Evans' level with the 1.01 next May, but I feel very confident that the gap won't be bigger than the additional 1st I received.
The upside--there is an Evans-esque prospect and I got an extra 1st rounder for free. The downside--there isn't and I traded down a tier--Ebron, Sankey, Cooks level-- for a first round pick. That's worst case for me and I'm okay with that risk.
I certainly understand the other owner's thinking as well--immediate gratification/production and safety.
I didn't say Evans is or is not worth 2 2015 1sts, all I said is that the value of the 1.01 in a devy draft will certainly vary depending on how many players are already rostered and who they are. Do you disagree with that?
Everything is relative. Within a league I am not sure I do agree with that. The best available non-rostered player's relative value is virtually the same year to year. In devy leagues there is always a chance that everyone hits on their devy picks and drastically decreases the talent pool but that hasn't been my experience...to date anyway
Yes, it's all relative- the relative value from year to year within the same league might be about the same, but from league to league it could vary substantially. We're (at least I'm) not in that league, which is why the question was asked- we (I) don't know how valuable the 1.01 devy pick is in this league. I certainly think it's relevant.
i think the verbiage is getting a little confusing here... we are talking about the (likely) 1.01 2015 Rookie pick in a league where there are already 24 college/devy players on rosters, not what the 1.01 2015 Devy pick is worth.
to renesauz's point (and probably Coop's) is that even though there are a lot of players already on rosters, someone will likely breakout.
in this league, Evans, Ebron, Sankey, Cooks, and Hyde were available in the first five picks (heck, Beckham, Matthews, Adams, Benjamin and Latimer all went in the top 15).
to renesauz's point (and probably Coop's) is that even though there are a lot of players already on rosters, someone will likely breakout.
in this league, Evans, Ebron, Sankey, Cooks, and Hyde were available in the first five picks (heck, Beckham, Matthews, Adams, Benjamin and Latimer all went in the top 15).
renesauz
IBL Representative
Not at all. The truth is that the value is unknown, but experience tells me it's worth at least the same as a non-devy 1.03, and could be as valuable as a non-devy 1.01. Considering it the same as a non-devy 1.02 is the reasonable approach. There's just no way to know for sure until next spring.
Keep in mind that to get 18 RBs rostered, a few owners have spent devy's on Freshman and Sophomore RB's- bigger gambles with bigger misses.
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MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
Most of my devy leagues only Watkins and Lee were rostered of those guys
Would likely depend on the devy league settings I guess
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renesauz
IBL Representative
Don't think it has anything to do with settings, unless your Devy league drafts more then 1 player per team. It's simply much harder than one might think to draft a quality player a year or more before he comes out of college. Of 14 Devy picks in a 14 team league, maybe 5 will be drafted in the NFL draft in the first 3 rounds, and 3 or 4 might not get drafted at all.
Devy picks are over-rated in devy leagues while early-mid firsts are under-rated. I'm sure this will correct over time, but these types of leagues are still relatively new.
