***Official*** 2011 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread (3 Viewers)

[rzrback77]

My contest roster - with reasoning behind the picks

QB - Tom Brady (7) $27 9.8%

QB - Colt McCoy (5) $10 22.2%

I wanted to minimize the money spent on QBs and still have an opportunity to compete. I looked the longest at P. Rivers, but actually like Brady a little better for this year and really like McCoy as the best low cost value QB. Since, McCoy's bye week was the same as Rivers, I decided to spend a couple of extra dollars and go with Brady. I suspected that Brady would be much less owned and that is a side benefit for me at QB as I expected that I was going to have a lot of popular players at RB and TE.

RB - Hillis (5) $27 8.8%

RB - Wells (6) $16 29.1%

RB - Hightower (5) $14 37.4%

RB - P. Thomas (11) $7 15.7%

RB - Hardesty (5) $4 11.9%

RB - Ben Tate (11) $3 37.8%

RB - M. Barber (8) $3 13.8%

I think that the RBs were the most challenging to select from. I really looked hard at many combinations, particularly at the top and wanted to get at least two sure fire starters. I think that Hillis will be that constantly featured guy that will get his, even thought his schedule down the stretch is very tough. I wanted to back him up with Hardesty because of the minimal expense. I really like Cleveland to run well and I think that the west coast offense will fit McCoy and they will surprise. I really like their OL and am a huge Hillis fan. Sound up with Wells and Hightower because they are relatively cheap starters. I realize that these type players probably will nof score outlandishly high, but hope to get consistent scores out of them, so I will stay in the game at RB. Selected Pierre Thomas becuase he is a nice receiving option and has served a nice role on the explosive Saints for rather cheap price. Ben Tate and Barber are lottery tickets, particularly if Arian Foster misses a lot of time.

WR - V. Jackson (6) $25 30.3%

WR - M. Wallace (11) $23 18.7%

WR - M. Williams TB (8) $21 10.9%

WR - Amendola (5) $8 23.9%

WR - E. Royal (6) $7 2.7%

WR - Shipley (7) $4 4.6%

WR - Massaquoi (5) $4 $5.1%

WR - D. Moore (8) $3 26.5%

WR - McCluster (6) $2 14.9%

WR - Parrish (7) $2 3.2%

Felt the need for expanded roster for WRs because of their volatile scoring, one week off the charts followed by a one catch for 12 yards game. I really like the potential of my top three, but they were all well represented at 30%, 18%, and 11%. I hope that Amendola gets a lot of targets and like the opportunities of all my cheap ticket guys. There is a lot of potential with McCluster, who has seen chances at RB and in the slot, particularly with the Chief's TE being out for the year. Parrish is a similar slot target and could really be a nice ppr player in the contest. Hoping for big seasons from my top three and for the rest to kick in a huge week here and there to extend this team into the playoffs.

TE - Daniels (11) $12 25.0%

TE - Z. Miller (6) $9 3.9%

TE - Kendricks (5) $6 38.1%

I knew that Daniels and Kendricks would be highly owned, so I went with Z. Miller as my third TE. He is an outstanding talent and Seattle lost their other TE for the year. Sidney Rice is starting the year off hurt, so Miller may be more productive in Seattle than he has been at Oakland and that wasn't bad.

PK - Feely $2 (6) 23.9%

PK - Mare $2 (9) 6.5%

PK - Nugent $2 (7) 3.4%

Three cheap kickers with all different byes. I hope that they underatand the concept of brother-in-law scoring. Take turns guys and provide me that double digit score each week.

DST - Rams (5) $3 13.0%

DST - Broncos (6) $2 14.0%

DST - Bills (7) $2 12.1%

Three cheap defenses as well because that was all the money I had left. The high reward for TDs combined with the best ball aspect usually minimizes the value of spending more money for the top defenses. At least that is my story as I did not have enough money to even look at the top defenses.

Comments welcome and best of luck to all. Remember that you don't have to outscore everybody, just enough to survive and advance.

 

[Worm]

10,776 entrants - seems low

 

[Jayrod]

Team Jayrodsquad

QB - Tom Brady - NE/7 - $27 - think he finishes #1 this year with TD's over 40. ETA - and I LOVE his wk 14-16 matchups

QB - Colt McCoy - CLE/5 - $10 - best backup for the money, and has a good matchup week 7

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew - JAX/9 - $30 - If he stays healthy, he could finish top 5, will certainly get the opportunity

RB - Reggie Bush - MIA/5 - $15 - just took a gamble here

RB - Tim Hightower - WAS/5 - $14 - think he will be very consistent and my RB2 when all is said and done

RB - Jerome Harrison - DET/9 - $5 - think Best goes down at some point and his potential for huge games has been seen before

RB - Marion Barber - CHI/8 - $3 - should contribute some TD's and could be big if Forte goes down

RB - Deji Karim - JAX/9 - $3 - cheap insurance on MJD

RB - LaRod Stephens-Howling - ARI/6 - $2 - a cheap way to get some bye week points on the board with a chance for one or two big weeks

WR - Mike Wallace - PIT/11 - $23 - high ceiling guy with good opportunities in a good offense

WR - Dez Bryant - DAL/5 - $21 - same as above

WR - Mario Manningham - NYG/7 - $19 - similar to above

WR - Lee Evans - BAL/5 - $10 - boom/bust in a good offense, great for best ball format

WR - Nate Burleson - DET/9 - $8 - same as above

WR - Harry Douglas - ATL/8 - $4 - slot guy with some big game potential

WR - Denarius Moore - OAK/8 - $3 - potential starter too cheap to pass up

WR - Antonio Brown - PIT/11 - $3 - same as Douglas

TE - Owen Daniels - HOU/11 - $12 - love his value in 1.5 ppr (if he stays healthy)

TE - Aaron Hernandez - NE/7 - $10 - boom/bust, will have some great weeks and some near zeros

TE - Greg Olsen - CAR/9 - $9 - high upside talent, I'm expecting him to finish the year very strong

PK - Billy Cundiff - BAL/5 - $4

PK - Matt Prater - DEN/6 - $3

PK - Nick Folk - NYJ/8 - $3

TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/5 - $4

TD - Arizona Cardinals - ARI/6 - $3

TD - Denver Broncos - DEN/6 - $2

RB & TE were chores to nail down. I went back and forth on my stud RB and bottom end guys..pretty much held on Bush and Hightower the whole time. TE was a place where I threw a lot of different combos in there depending on how much money I had at other positions. Guys I had at one point not in now are Winslow, Hendricks, Watson & Moore.

WR was the main position I focused on and was pretty steady with the same guys for the most part. Manningham was the last guy I finally decided on. QB was driven by my desire to have Brady (especially after researching last season's top 5). I fluctuated backups quite a bit, but liked McCoy best for the cost. Had Stafford for a bit, but just thought he cost too much for what I was considering my backup.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

the 3 most owned TEs are my 3 TEs

I had the same thing but upgraded from Kendricks to Pettigrew at the last minute.The top 3 defenses are my defenses.

 

[Robbie Cooper]

Tom Brady $27 9.8%

Matthew Stafford $18 39.3%

Wanted to ensure lots of points every week. Believe Brady might end up the overall #1 pt scorer this year, and think that Stafford has the highest ceiling at this price point or lower.

Darren McFadden $28 13.2%

Felix Jones $23 26.8%

Chris Wells $16 29.1%

Tim Hightower $14 37.4%

Ben Tate $3 37.8%

Wanted 4 starters. Not surprisingly, those 3 of those starters are about the most commonly owned. And the one low dollar guy I picked up (Tate) is the most commonly owned, and for good reason. Like that my No.1 is not that commonly owned. Really like the potential for big points from McFadden and Jones. Only one week where 2 of the same Bye Week (WK 5 with Jones and THT).

Mario Manningham $19 19.7%

Julio Jones $17 8.1%

Andre Roberts $9 6.3%

Nate Burleson $8 30.3%

Jordy Nelson $7 8.5%

Jordan Shipley $4 4.6%

Antonio Brown $3 30.8%

Denarius Moore $3 26.5%

Like this group, which I could have swung one more super consistent top-tier guy like V Jax or CJ, but went for quality quantity. If Kolb works out in AZ, the Andre Roberts pick could be gold. Same goes for JJ. Good Bye Week coverage with none in the dreaded Week 5.

Jimmy Graham $15 12.9%

Jermaine Gresham $10 1.7%

Lance Kendricks $6 38.1%

Had Jermichael Finley in almost every single iteration until the very end, when I swapped out for Graham (thus allowing me to upgrade from Colt to Stafford, too. Gresham was a consistent performer last year, and I think he'll be used more this year. Love the uniqueness here (well, other than the FFG BFF Kendricks).

Neil Rackers $5 7.0%

Dan Carpenter $3 5.2%

Jay Feely $2 23.9%

Want guys who are not only capable of kicking 50+ yarders, but whose coaches don't hesitate to let them do so. Have had Janikowski in this format every year, but decided to go a different route with Rackers this year because of the better O in Houston (who is not a great Red Zone team). Not surprised that Feely is the most owned K, as he was by far and away the best kicker at the $2 range. No two players on bye in the same week was a consideration, as well.

Oakland Raiders $4 2.4%

Houston Texans $3 18.7%

Arizona Cardinals $3 14.5%

With the expected decrease in kick-off return TDs, just tried to find three cheap Ds with non-overlapping Bye Weeks, and that might have better than expected Ds (not surprised. that Houston is most commonly owned D).

 

[Bobcat10]

I can't seem to find the post to the player owned percentages...am I missing it in here or how are you guys getting that data?

Locked up.

I'm probably not going to be able to check this thread as much as I'd like. So if anyone spots anything fishy, please shoot me an email. (My last name) at footballguys.com. Thanks.

Here are the preliminary ownership stats.

The sim will show everyone with 100% chance to advance this week, so there's no need for that.

Thank you, sir. Missed that Doug posting.

 

[fightingillini]

Team Fightingillini (finished 30th last year )

QB - Rivers 24

QB - McNabb 11

RB - McFadden 28

RB - F Jones 23

RB- Wells 16

RB - Scott 9

RB - Stephens-Howling 2

WR - Lloyd 22

WR - D Bryant 21

WR - Burress 10

WR - Evans 10

WR - Burleson 8

WR - N Washington 5

WR - Douglas 4

WR - Henderson 4

WR - D Moore 3

TE - Cook 12

TE - Daniels 12

TE - Olsen 9

K - Prater 3

K - Carpenter 3

K - Mare 2

D - AZ 3

D - HOU 3

D - CIN 3

My strategy is to always gamble with just 2 QBs. I take the cheapest stud and back him up with a cheap backup. Need that $$$ to fund numerous RB/WR/TE spots were the flex is. And I think it's important to have 3 kickers and 3 defenses. I go cheap there. I like Lloyd, D Bryant, McFadden and Felix Jones as high upside guys at their respective prices.

 

[BroadwayG]

Motion: Iggy puts the link to the preliminary ownership stats on the first post of the thread.

 

[travisio]

Tecmo Bo

Matthew Stafford $18

Jay Cutler $16

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Peyton Hillis $27

Knowshon Moreno $18

Brandon Jacobs $16

Reggie Bush $15

Michael Bush $10

Ben Tate $3

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Vincent Jackson $25

Mike Wallace $23

Lance Moore $10

Nate Burleson $8

Malcom Floyd $8

Harry Douglas $4

Denarius Moore $3

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Owen Daniels $12

Aaron Hernandez $10

Lance Kendricks $6

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Josh Brown $3

Nick Folk $3

Jay Feely $2

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New Orleans Saints $5

San Diego Chargers $5

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[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Re the smaller number of entries...I loaded up on early Week 5 and Week 6 byes even more than usual expecting that W5 would be the first or second week of cuts... figured the lockout would hurt the number of entries (am surprised it wasn't worse)...regardless, my hope is that there might be a small edge available in so many weak entries still being alive in weeks 5 & 6 ... allowing a heavier front-loading of bye weeks

Also really shocked at number of small rosters ...

 

[Worm]

Motion: Iggy puts the link to the preliminary ownership stats on the first post of the thread.

2nd!

 

[apalmer]

Only 10,776 total too... lower than last year by almost 3,000?Guess congrats to almost everyone making it to week 3 already! (except for 776 probably garbage entries)

Hopefully, there are enough garbage entries that would normally get eliminated in weeks 1-3 to carry over through Week 5 and help relieve my bye issues.

 

[J. Cyrus]

My brother and I did this entry together, check it:

UpHillis Battle

Ben Roethlisberger $23 --> Big Ben and Bradford have a cakewalk of a combined schedule, so we're banking on consistent QB1 production every week here.

Sam Bradford $17

--------------------------

Peyton Hillis $27 --> We feel Hillis has a super-high floor with a nice o-line, a decent schedule and an improving Browns passing game.. plus he'll

Felix Jones $23 catch the ball plenty. Felix is the ceiling guy here, as we feel he has a shot at top 5 production. Beanie/Jacobs/Hightower gives

Chris Wells $16 us solid depth, and Tate is the lottery ticket of the bunch.

Brandon Jacobs $16

Tim Hightower $14

Ben Tate $3

--------------------------

Dez Bryant $21 --> We felt Dez was the best value of the "top tier" WRs.. Someone in STL is gonna break out at WR, and we're banking on MSW.. also

Mike Sims-Walker $11 drinkin' the Matt Waldman kool-aid on Earl Bennett in a PPR format.. Simpson, Burleson, Douglas and A. Brown are low-cost and

Jerome Simpson $8 should have some explosive weeks.

Nate Burleson $8

Earl Bennett $8

Harry Douglas $4

Antonio Brown $3

Denarius Moore $3

--------------------------

Aaron Hernandez $10 --> In this staggered PPR format, we definitely wanted 3 high-upside TEs.. Hernandez is basically a WR, Olsen should be featured

Greg Olsen $9 heavily and has the skills.. and we're in on the Rams' sweepstakes again with Kendricks, who has a shot for nice catch numbers in

Lance Kendricks $6 an unsettled STL receiver corps.

--------------------------

Josh Brown $3 --> We spent a lot of time comparing Herman's kicker rankings to the Ult. SOS data to come up with this combo.. we feel very good

Nick Folk $3 about it.

Jay Feely $2

--------------------------

Baltimore Ravens $6 --> IMO this is the best trio possible here when factoring in complimentary schedules based on Ult. SOS data as well as talent

Cincinnati Bengals $3 upside.

Houston Texans $3

 

[dickey moe]

Ben Roethlisberger $23

Sam Bradford $17

Peyton Hillis $27

Jahvid Best $25

Chris Wells $16

Reggie Bush $15

Willis McGahee $11

Brandon Marshall $24

Brandon Lloyd $22

Mario Manningham $19

Mike Sims-Walker $11

Jerome Simpson $8

Aaron Hernandez $10

Greg Olsen $9

Dan Bailey $3

Shaun Suisham $3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers $4

Arizona Cardinals $3

 

[DAMAC3]

I didn't even worry too much about the bye weeks (big mistake). Honestly, I'll feel pretty good if I make it to week 11. At least my other match-ups that week look good (from a pre-season perspective). RB will be a big problem that week if I make it.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Motion: Iggy puts the link to the preliminary ownership stats on the first post of the thread.

2nd!

Done.

 

[BroadwayG]

I want to hang out with $232 on QB guy.

 

[eaglezzz]

Philip Rivers $24

Matt Ryan $21

For QB I like to have 2 top 10 guys with high powered offenses. Those 6 pts per TD are huge. Rivers is top dog and Ryan is about to break out and become that P. Manning type of QB. I had Stafford in there for along time but figured everyone else would too so I spent the 3 extra bucks on Ryan and his stability.

--------------------------

Darren McFadden $28

Peyton Hillis $27

Jerome Harrison $5

Montario Hardesty $4

Deji Karim $3

Ben Tate $3

Isaac Redman $2

Taiwan Jones $2

I toyed with the idea of taking Wells/Hightower/Bush/Moreno combos and also a L. McCoy/MJD combo but thought the McFadden/Hillis combo was huge value in a PPR format. Hardesty is a good handcuff and T. Jones is a nice value Handcuff as well. As far as Harrison/Karim/Tate/Redman go I thought they were all homerun type of plays and if one of them pans out as a starter I would be happy, and if not at least I would get the odd TD here and there.

--------------------------

Larry Fitzgerald $28

Vincent Jackson $25

Dez Bryant $21

Danny Amendola $8

Antonio Brown $3

Denarius Moore $3

Dexter McCluster $2

Roscoe Parrish $2

WR's are what I like to build my team around. Having Fitz/VJax/Dez as my 3 stud starters I am in good shape. Amendola is a PPR king and Brown/Moore are my swing for the fences picks (along with everyone else). Thought McCluster and Parrish were some deep plays that could pay off as well. Like having the 3 studs and 5 other guys that will contribute here and there.

--------------------------

Aaron Hernandez $10

Brent Celek $7

Lance Kendricks $6

Evan Moore $2

Dennis Pitta $2

I obviously went big with 5 TE's this year. Last year I only had 3 rostered and Finley went down so I struggled at the position all year. I think Hernandez/Kendricks can together make for a nice TE1 play, and Celek could bounce back this year as well on a nice offense so why not give it a shot for $7. Moore is obviously a FBG's contest favourite as well and is well worth the $2. Pitta at $2 is worth a play now with Heap out of the picture in Baltimore, he could even still beat out Dickson. So no clear cut stud here but a whole lot of depth at the 1.5 PPR position.

--------------------------

Olindo Mare $2

Jay Feely $2

Phil Dawson $2

My strategy on Kickers and Defenses was just to pick 3 of each and keep them the cheapest. I figured even the cheapest 3 could put up a decent number each week. It might burn me in the end but it sure helped me building the rest of my team at all the key positions.

--------------------------

Buffalo Bills $2

Denver Broncos $2

Jacksonville Jaguars $2

My problem with Defenses in this format is that there is no points for Yardage against or points against so why not take a few cheap ones and hope for a TD here and there. Buffalo plays Miami twice, Denver plays Oakland twice and Jacksonville gets Tenn twice I can live with that for $6 total.

Overall I like my team this year. I thought I learned some good lessons from last year and built a team with more depth and tried to put a twist of uniqueness in there as well. A starting lineup of:

QB: Rivers

RB: McFadden

RB: Hillis

WR: Fitzgerald

WR: V. Jackson

WR: D. Bryant

TE: A. Hernandez

FLEX: Amendola/Celek/Kendricks

PK: Feeley/Mare/Dawson

DEF: Jax/Buf/Den

I can live with that.

 

[butcher boy]

I'm surprised more people didn't end up with Mike Wallace on their roster. One of the things I did was put together a spreadsheet showing players and prices along with their rank based on FBG projections. Mike Wallace was one of the "outliers" in that he was ranked 8th, but was priced in a group of WRs ranked 15-20th. Other players who showed value like this were Steven Jackson, Felix Jones, Steve Johnson, and Santana Moss most of whom are on my roster.

I also had a column showing how the projections/rankings for each player had changed over the last 2 weeks so I could easily see trends. So guys like Brandon Jackson, Roy Williams, and Rashad Jennings who may have looked like deals early in the contest, wouldn't be anywhere near my roster now because it was clear how much they've plummetted in the rankings recently.

I made a couple of other picks based on my gut that did not show up as extreme value according to the spreadsheet. Jamaal Charles is one of those guys. I wanted a stud RB and he had a bye week that was most compatible with my other RBs. Philip Rivers too for the same reason.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I had a hard time spreading the money around to 30 players, just felt like there was better value in paying for better players.

QB P.Rivers/6 $24

QB-Chad Henne/5 $8

Henne actually has one of the most secure jobs right now and while I have hammered on the guy in every way possible this off season, for $8 to pair with a top5 QB, fine by me. Instead of taking the $24 for Rivers and splitting it up amongst 2 lesser QBs I just ponied up for him as he is usually 25 a week in this kind of format. I took some big risks with this but if I can make it into the later rounds I am going to have a lot of firepower.

RB Adrian Peterson/9 $37

RB Chris Johnson/6 $36

RB Pierre Thomas/11 $7

RB J.Harrison/9 $5

RB Ben Tate/11 $3

RB D.Ward/11 $3

I spent hours trying to fidget with the money at this spot. I just don't trust the players like Hightower, Wells, McGahee...just rather go find guys that can single handedly keep you in the contest. Johnson and Peterson have the ability to put up 30+ points a piece. Thomas and Harrison are probably on a lot of rosters and I love the combo in Houston late, that is the best $6 lottery ticket you can buy in this thing.

WR Larry Fitzgerald/6 $28

WR Mario Manningham/7 $19

WR Julio Jones/8 $17

WR Lee Evans/5 $10

WR Emmanuel Sanders/11 $8

WR Jordy Nelson/8 $7

WR Antonio Brown/11 $3

Instead of 10 WRs that can all throw up 2/30 weeks and drive you insane I went with guys that I felt were going to have a lot of big weeks. I'm bullish on Fitz this year, and Julio Jones was not my 1st option but he worked well with my bye weeks and I'm not asking him to carry my team. I liked the combo at Pittsburgh as I think one of the two will emerge.

TE Greg Olsen/9 $9

TE Todd Heap/6 $8

TE L.Kendricks/5 $6

Didn't want to overspend and I think some weeks 2 of these guys will be startable in the line up. The board has been gaga over kendricks and I felt he was worth the gamble. All the bye weeks fell right too.

PK Dan Carpenter/5 $3

PK Jay Feely/6 $2

I know folks like 3 PKs but going with 2 allowed me to spend a little more at higher scoring positions.

Def Arizona/6 $3

Def Buffalo/7 $2

Def Jax/9 $2

Just tried to have 1 defense with some upside in Arizona as they have some easy match ups against bad or rookie QBs,

I probably will get bounced quick as I didn't draft enough bodies but I'm pleased with what I have.

 

[KingPrawn]

I struggled with what's more valuable in a PPR best ball format like this - a steady receptions guy like L. Moore, Douglass, Bennett, Amendola or load up on WRs who might not get a lot of catches from week to week but have potential to have a few long TD catches in any given week, like Lee Evans or A. Brown.

I think in a normal league where you have to start a line-up from week to week I like the steady PPR guys. In a best ball format it seems like you need the homerun hitters and hope they hit on the right weeks.

 

[Driver]

I'm surprised more people didn't end up with Mike Wallace on their roster. One of the things I did was put together a spreadsheet showing players and prices along with their rank based on FBG projections. Mike Wallace was one of the "outliers" in that he was ranked 8th, but was priced in a group of WRs ranked 15-20th. Other players who showed value like this were Steven Jackson, Felix Jones, Steve Johnson, and Santana Moss most of whom are on my roster.I also had a column showing how the projections/rankings for each player had changed over the last 2 weeks so I could easily see trends. So guys like Brandon Jackson, Roy Williams, and Rashad Jennings who may have looked like deals early in the contest, wouldn't be anywhere near my roster now because it was clear how much they've plummetted in the rankings recently. I made a couple of other picks based on my gut that did not show up as extreme value according to the spreadsheet. Jamaal Charles is one of those guys. I wanted a stud RB and he had a bye week that was most compatible with my other RBs. Philip Rivers too for the same reason.

I did a similar thing with the FBG projections. The guys who popped out to me were:QB:Rivers ($24) - owned by 25.8%Schaub ($20) - owned by 7.8%Stafford ($18) - owned by 39.3% ***Freeman ($18) - owned by 9.1%Bradford ($17) - owned by 19.7%Kolb ($15) - owned by 12.4%Sanchez ($14) - owned by 5.6%McNabb ($11) - owned by 9.7%McCoy ($10) - owned by 22.2% ***RB:S. Jackson ($25) - owned by 13.8%F. Jones ($23) - owned by 26.8%Moreno ($18) - owned by 8.8% ***Wells ($16) - owned by 29.1% ***R. Bush ($15) - owned by 16.6% ***Hightower ($14) - owned by 37.4% ***WR:V. Jackson ($25) - owned by 30.3%M. Wallace ($23) - owned by 18.7%M. Williams ($21) - owned by 10.9%S. Johnson ($19) - owned by 12.8%Manningham ($19) - owned by 19.7%S. Moss ($16) - owned by 11.5%M. Thomas ($15) - owned by 5.0%J. Ford ($14) - owned by 6.7%J. Knox ($12) - owned by 3.7%L. Evans ($10) - owned by 18.8%L. Moore ($10) - owned by 19.9%Burleson ($8) - owned by 30.3%M. Floyd ($8) - owned by 11.3%TE:Finley ($23) - owned by 10.0%Graham ($15) - owned by 12.9%O. Daniels ($12) - owned by 25.0% *** Hernandez ($10) - owned by 23.6%Celek ($7) - owned by 9.9%I've got 12 of these players on my roster. Overall, I think Daniels -- projected to be the #5 TE for $12 -- is the best value. Stafford, McCoy, and the 4 RBs costing $14-18 are other great values, IMO. Take your pick of the WRs -- I selected 6 of them. I have a total of 28 players and spent a lot of money (and roster slots) on WRs and TEs to take advantage of low-cost players with upside.

 

[LittlePhatty]

I'm surprised more people didn't end up with Mike Wallace on their roster. One of the things I did was put together a spreadsheet showing players and prices along with their rank based on FBG projections. Mike Wallace was one of the "outliers" in that he was ranked 8th, but was priced in a group of WRs ranked 15-20th. Other players who showed value like this were Steven Jackson, Felix Jones, Steve Johnson, and Santana Moss most of whom are on my roster.

I tried to minimize Week 11 byes, so no Wallace for me. The contest gets cruel around that time, and bumping the bye from week 10 to 11 this year makes it even tougher. I did identify Steve Johnson as a big value though.

 

[Bobcat10]

the 3 most owned TEs are my 3 TEs

And if they are good that is great for you. With 60% of the field rostering <2 TEs you'll likely have weeks where this benefits you alot around the cut line.

 

[Bobcat10]

I wonder how many owners ditched Ringer when Johnson signed. I thought he'd still have been higher than 8.8% owned.

 

[joffer]

Aaron Rodgers $31

Colt McCoy $10

Steven Jackson $25

Mike Tolbert $15

Bernard Scott $9

Ronnie Brown $8

Jacquizz Rodgers $8

Pierre Thomas $7

Jerome Harrison $5

Deji Karim $3

Vincent Jackson $25

Percy Harvin $22

Mario Manningham $19

Jordy Nelson $7

Harry Douglas $4

Antonio Brown $3

Dexter McCluster $2

Josh Cribbs $2

Owen Daniels $12

Aaron Hernandez $10

Lance Kendricks $6

Matt Prater $3

Josh Brown $3

Ryan Longwell $3

Houston Texans $3

Cleveland Browns $3

Denver Broncos $2

 

[DWI]

Matt Schaub $20 I didn't think he would be on a lot of rosters

Matthew Stafford $18 Love the talent scared of injury

Colt McCoy $10 In case something happens to Stafford

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Cedric Benson $17 Should get 300 touch's if healthy

Chris Wells $16 No competion

Tim Hightower $14 Im drinker the coolaid

Willis McGahee $11 I think he may have a nice year

Roy Helu $7 Just in case

Jerome Harrison $5 Lotto ticket for Best

Javon Ringer $3 Lotto

Ben Tate $3 Lotto

LaRod Stephens-Howling $2 Maybe third down back

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Vincent Jackson $25 Wanted one stud

Santana Moss $16 All he does is produce

Lee Evans $10 Looked great in preseason

Nate Burleson $8 Ditto

Danny Amendola $8 Ppr producer

Harry Douglas $4 Should crack lineup few weeks

Antonio Brown $3 Ditto

Denarius Moore $3 Ditto

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Owen Daniels $12 Should have big year if healthy

Aaron Hernandez $10 Drinking coolaid

Lance Kendricks $6 Looked great in preseason

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Rob Bironas $3

Josh Brown $3

Jay Feely $2

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Atlanta Falcons $5

Cleveland Browns $3

St. Louis Rams $3

Last year I had 20 man roster load with studs loved till I got knocked out in week 8 or 9. This year trying the more is better concept.

Good Luck All.

 

[TheGrimReaper]

QB - Matt Ryan - ATL/8 - $21 7.4%

QB - Matthew Stafford - DET/9 - $18 39.3%

Wanted to have Rivers here...just couldnt make the numbers work....IMO cant justify carrying 3 QB's....Need to go for quality here and pay a premium for it. Would have also like to go Ryan and Freeman, but alas...they share the same bye week. I think that would have been a really solid tandem to have.

Stafford heavy ownership dampens his value if he blows up. Ryan is the key cog here.

RB - Darren McFadden - OAK/8 - $28 13.2%

RB - Chris Wells - ARI/6 - $16 29.1%

RB - Reggie Bush - MIA/5 - $15 16.6%

RB - Tim Hightower - WAS/5 - $14 37.4%

RB - Kendall Hunter - SF/7 - $6 3.8%

Of the several dozen iterations previous, all had Felix Jones as part of the equation....really sux that so many quality medium value RB's shared a week 5 bye. I would have been up a creek come week 5 with Jones, Bush, and Hightower.....swapped out Jones for McFadden and deleted Delone Carter to make this work. I really think Hunter has a good chance to start 2-3 games minimum this year. Time will tell.

Knew there was going to be a lot of replication w/Wells, Hightower...was pleasantly suprised that ONLY 16.6% went w/ Bush. Am clearly going to need McFadden to blow up in latter stages this year.

WR - Percy Harvin - MIN/9 - $22 3.4%

WR - Mario Manningham - NYG/7 - $19 19.7%

WR - Julio Jones - ATL/8 - $17 8.1%

WR - Nate Burleson - DET/9 - $8 30.3%

WR - Danny Amendola - STL/5 - $8 23.9%

WR - Earl Bennett - CHI/8 - $8 5.9%

WR - Antonio Brown - PIT/11 - $3 30.8%

WR - Denarius Moore - OAK/8 - $3 26.5%

I knew going in , I wanted at least 8 WR's. Really wanted to find a way to get VJAX on the roster, again just couldnt make it work. Another would have been Britt who is taylor made for this type format. Ive finally drank enough of the koolaid y'all been serving on JJ to get on board. The decision was made easier once Manning problems became more amplified (removed Collie). For $$ 24, seems like a really good value play to grab Burleson, Amendola, Bennett. Man crush on Manningham this year....have tried to acquire in every single league im in..( got him in 4 of 7 leagues )..Will see how this plays out..(fingers crossed)

Cleary need Harvin, JJ, & Bennett to come thru big for me given the edge in ownership %.

TE - Owen Daniels - HOU/11 - $12 25.0%

TE - Aaron Hernandez - NE/7 - $10 23.6%

TE - Lance Kendricks - STL/5 - $6 38.1%

The TE spot was actually quite easy to lock onto IMO. Wanted 3 as I think the TE plays a HUGE flex role participant, especially at 1.5 per recpt. OK Waldman, uve got me sold on Hernandez. Love what Kendricks brings to the table. Daniels rock solid at that price (could have easily gone Jared Cook as well.) To me, with so many bargains in the TE area, it neutralized looking at the higher priced options of the Big 5, especially in bestball format.

Wow... :( I should have known. All three TE's are the highest ownership % in the contest. Actually, kind of suprised that Kendricks isn't at 50% + ownership, so I guess there is a small silver lining here.

PK - Josh Brown - STL/5 - $3

PK - Nick Folk - NYJ/8 - $3

PK - Jay Feely - ARI/6 - $2

PK - Phil Dawson - CLE/5 - $2

Wanted 4, got 4...play the numbers game here at low cost...No need to spend for the higher ticket items...somebody always comes thru week to week. If I could have squeezed in a 5th, would have done it.

TD - Houston Texans - HOU/11 - $3

TD - St. Louis Rams - STL/5 - $3

Two low cost D's ...

Feel comfortable with this team....

Made the final 250 2 out of last 3 years...I was bounced week 8 last year......

A couple of things that stand out to me.......

** Only 18 % of entries had 8 or more receivers. IMO this is a mandate to survive the ups and downs of the season. Even if one pairs back to 7 WR's, there were still only 37% of entries that met this threshold.

** 7% of the combined entries went with either only 1 QB, or 4+ QB. What am I missing here?? Dead on Arrival

** 69% of entries went with 2 PKs or less. At the low low cost to acquire, and factoring in bestball strategy, it seems like a no-brainer to go 3+ in this category and play the field.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

My contest database has been completed!

Well, technically there's still a lot of work to do on calculating scoring, etc., but that can wait until next week. But all 10,766 rosters have been loaded, so fire away with any ownership type questions you may have that haven't already been answered by Doug.

 

[urbanhack]

Matthew Stafford $18

Jason Campbell $12

Colt McCoy $10

LeGarrette Blount $25

Felix Jones $23

Mike Tolbert $15

Jason Snelling $6

Jerome Harrison $5

Isaac Redman $2

LaRod Stephens-Howling $2

Vincent Jackson $25

Steve Johnson $19

Davone Bess $13

Lee Evans $10

Danny Amendola $8

Jordan Shipley $4

Antonio Brown $3

Dexter McCluster $2

Josh Cribbs $2

Jimmy Graham $15

Aaron Hernandez $10

Fred Davis $5

Josh Brown $3

Nick Folk $3

Jay Feely $2

Houston Texans $3

Arizona Cardinals $3

Denver Broncos $2

 

[24seven]

Well here she is............THE SQUAD

Matthew Stafford $18

Ryan Fitzpatrick $13

-----------------------------

LeSean McCoy $34

Steven Jackson $25

Felix Jones $23

Montario Hardesty $4

Ben Tate $3

-----------------------------

Roddy White $30

Larry Fitzgerald $28

Vincent Jackson $25

Danny Amendola $8

Antonio Brown $3

-----------------------------

Jimmy Graham $15

Brandon Pettigrew $11

-----------------------------

Josh Brown $3

Jay Feely $2

-----------------------------

Washington Redskins $3

Denver Broncos $2

 

[Modog814]

QB:

Rivers, McCoy, Whitehurst

Think Rivers ends up #1 QB, close to 5K yards and 40+ TD's. Believe this is the year he joins the ranks of Uber-Elite QB's. McCoy is a value at his price, obviously with the numbers I'm predicting for Rivers, don't plan on using him much. Whitehurst is a flier, don't think Jackson will hold onto the job in Seattle as Whitehurst has looked much better.

RB:

Wells, Jacobs, Reggie Bush, Hightower, J.Harrison, B.Tate, Barber, Redman

Decided to go with 4 mid level guys here who can produce solid RB1 numbers on any given week. Wells and Hightower were pretty much no-brainers based on situation. I think Jacobs has looked better than Bradshaw so far this pre-season and will throw in the occasional 2 TD game which could help alot in this format. Reggie has an opportunity and with .5ppr I think he could be a value. Not a huge fan of him personally, but I do see improvement (small) in his between the tackle running. Took 4 fliers on players I think that could be home-runs if they get a chance. We've already seen what Harrison can do if given a large workload. Tate was a no-brainer with Fosters hamstring and how he's looked in pre-season. Barber i think can be a GL vulture, same with Redman. Harrison and Tate are also players that have that home-run potential to take a few carries and score big with them.

WR:

Fitz, S.Johnson, Sims-Walker, Burleson, Floyd, Douglas, Ogletree, D.Moore

Think Fitz reclaims #1 WR ranking this year. Stevie Johnson has potential for monster games and is clear cut #1 on a passing offense. Sims-Walker has talent and seems to be in a pretty good situation, if he can stay healthy think he's a steal. Burleson and Floyd are both good values imo, both capable of putting up solid games anyweek. My 3 fliers were Harry Douglas, Ogletree, and Moore. Believe Atlanta will be passing a lot this year, and douglas has the speed to take any play to the house. Plus there the possible that Jones doesn't live up to billing and he slides into the #2 role. Ogletree again is the 3rd WR on a good passing offense, think he'll have an occasional good game, but it always seems to me that either Bryant or Austin is gimpy, so think he could get a couple starts over the course of the season. D.Moore may be a bit of a defensive pick. Knew he was going to be on a lot of rosters, and his situation is wide open, so it was worth the shot of hopping on the boat versus missing it.

TE:

Finley, Daniels, E.Moore

Hugely important position, so wanted players that could count as flex if need be. Finley is obviously talented, the question is can he stay healthy. Same with Daniels, a 70 reception season isn't out of the question. Evan Moore I think will be on many rosters in the final 250. He'll be inconsitent, but I think when he has a big game, it's going to be BIG.

PK:

Mare, Suisham, Feely, Dawson

4 cheapies, just trying to get those 10 ppg from the K position.

Def:

Texans, Rams, Jaguars

Again 3 cheapies. Don't think the top defenses are nearly worth the cost. The top defenses in this contest tend to be the ones that score the most TD's. Which is pretty unpredictable.

 

[Jayrod]

Believe Atlanta will be passing a lot this year, and douglas has the speed to take any play to the house. Plus there the possible that Jones doesn't live up to billing and he slides into the #2 role.

Umpossible

 

[jdoggydogg]

This year, just for fun, I recorded all your entries. The "winner" is KingPrawn, who submitted 886 legal entries before the deadline. Next highest was something like 450.

That 450 had to be me.

 

[Driver]

Number of entries by roster size================================18 356819 139320 105921 83622 76623 64124 54725 39626 41527 29628 26929 21430 376Is 18 always this high?Could have sworn the last few years early 20's was the highest?

Seems eerily similar to last years #s.

This year 33.1% of entries had 18-player rosters, compared to 41.5% last year. A big majority (66.3%) had small rosters last year of 18-20 players, while a smaller majority of 55.9% had small rosters (18-20 players) this year. Last year only 11.8% of entries had big rosters of 25 to 30 players. This year 18.2% of teams had big rosters. The number of teams with 30-player rosters increased from 271 last year to 376 this year. Assuming big rosters are desirable and small rosters are a bad strategy (in general), looks like there was significant "learning" from last year to this year. That being said, 55.9% still had small rosters.

 

[FF Ninja]

$16 Cutler/8

$11 McNabb/9

$10 McCoy/5

I am really high on Cutler this year and pretty high on McNabb. I had Beck but had to change him at the last second. Switched Jacobs for Hightower to get that extra $2. Given the 6pt/td 1pt/int scoring, I like 3QB because I'm basically guaranteed 2-3 TD/wk and thus 20 points. $37 is not bad for a diverse QB portfolio. Almost left Beck in, hoping he surfaces in the 2nd half of the season, but too much of a gamble for $8 and for a position only 3 guys deep.

$26 Ingram/11

$16 Wells/6

$14 Hightower/5

$11 McGahee/6

$10 M.Bush/8

$03 Tate/11

Made the switch from Lynch, who I'm really high on, to Ingram based solely on fear after watching TJax play QB for Seattle. I hate paying that much for a RB, but I had the money free so I went for it. I wish the roster could've been 35ish. I was really down on Wells last year, but quite high on him this year now that they have a decent QB. I was going to take him before Williams go hurt. Hightower I'm not sold on, but I wasn't sold on Jacobs, either. I've been a M.Bush fan for a while, so I loved his price. With him and McGahee, I hope to get some TD production. Tate (in place of Barber) was a knee jerk pick after his first preseason game and I just never removed him. My initial game plan was to pick a group that will get me two guys that score a single TD each per week, thus yielding 2 double digit scores. Was not looking to fill my flex spot with a RB. If it happens, then that's a bonus.

$19 Collie/11

$19 Ocho/7

$10 Evans/5

$10 Moore/11

$08 Burleson/9

$08 Bennett/8

$07 Hester/8

$05 Berrian/9

$03 Brown/11

I've got a lot of week 11 byes but I can weather is as I've got 9WR. Lots of guys that burned me last year on here in Evans, Hester, and Berrian. They were cheaper this year and in better situations, so easy choices. I was really thinking about removing Collie last night, but I don't need him early. He could be a driving force for the home stretch. Ocho I really like as well. Moore and Burleson were guys I almost took last year. Very happy to have them this year. I switched Amendola for Bennett a few days ago. I'm really gambling on the Bears' passing game. At one point Roy Williams was on my roster (pre-Bennett). Brown was a can't pass in a best ball format. Especially for $3.

$12 Daniels/11

$07 Boss/8

$06 Kendricks/5

$02 Moore/5

$02 Pitta/5

I swapped my initial picks of Watson and Dicksen for their counterparts in Moore and Pitta a couple days after the contest opened and saved $10. Started out with Olsen and Heap, but soon switched to Boss and Kendricks. Campbell produces good TE stats. Can't be certain about Newton. Daniels was a steal. Obviously I wasn't the only one to think so. I loved the value here and with 1.5 pt/rec I was going 5TE even if I paid $15 more. My initial game plan was to get my flex out of my TE the majority of the time.

$2 Lindell/7

$2 Feely/6

$2 Dawson/5

Wanted 3-4, and at that number, no need to go more than $2, imo. Got mildly lucky that out of the few $2 kickers who were actually still on teams had different byes.

$3 Hou/11

$2 Buf/7

$2 Den/6

$2 Jax/9

Wanted 3-4. Was disappointed there weren't four $2 teams. Just gotta hope for a pick 6 from one of these teams each week. I didn't know Houston would be so popular. I thought I was allowing myself a little bit of homerism.

Overall, I felt a lot better about this contest a couple weeks ago. Now that I'm looking at it, I've got 2/6 RBs, 3/9 WRs, 1/5 TEs, and 1/4 Ds on bye in week 11. That doesn't scare me much, but if Manning isn't playing and Ocho doesn't pan out then I wasted $38 on two WR. Those two factors combine to make me feel less excited than I anticipated.

 

[massraider]

Matthew Stafford $18

Ryan Fitzpatrick $13

I plugged in these two QBs and didn't look back. Surprised Fitz wasn't more heavily owned, expected Stafford or Bradford to be #1.

Steven Jackson $25

Felix Jones $23

Chris Wells $16

Jerome Harrison $5

Montario Hardesty $4

Isaac Redman $2

Three starters I like, I really like SJax, and three guys that are helpful if injuries affect the starter. Probably need Hillis, Best, or Mendy to go down to have a shot.

Percy Harvin $22

Dez Bryant $2

Steve Johnson $19

Nate Burleson $8

Devin Hester $7

Mark Clayton $6

Mohamed Massaquoi $4

Cecil Shorts $3

Denarius Moore $3

I love my WRs. I feel like I have a legit top 3, and my cheap upside guys all have a shot at WR1 on their team. Really like Clayton and Shorts, I think Clayton on the PUP ensures low ownership, and who needs him week 1-6? In best ball, Burleson and Hester were bargains, as was Stevie Johnson, come to think if it.

Dustin Keller $12

Aaron Hernandez $10

Lance Kendricks $6

Evan Moore $2

Glad I went with 4 TE. I don't have a lot of uniqueness here, but a really unique TE roster is going to have some bad/expensive TEs on it. Moore was a defensive pick, I think you might get Jimmy Graham production for 2 lousy bucks.

Sebastian Janikowski $4

Matt Prater $3

Josh Brown $3

Went with decent offenses, maybe without a goalline threat, and kickers that can drop bombs.

New Orleans Saints $5

St. Louis Rams $3

Arizona Cardinals $3

Wanted three defenses that were playing the NFC bottom dwellars often.

Made my exit week 11 last two years, so avoided the late byes, trying to make top 250 here.

 

[gregjcross]

$16 Cutler/8

$11 McNabb/9

$10 McCoy/5

I am really high on Cutler this year and pretty high on McNabb. I had Beck but had to change him at the last second. Switched Jacobs for Hightower to get that extra $2. Given the 6pt/td 1pt/int scoring, I like 3QB because I'm basically guaranteed 2-3 TD/wk and thus 20 points. $37 is not bad for a diverse QB portfolio. Almost left Beck in, hoping he surfaces in the 2nd half of the season, but too much of a gamble for $8 and for a position only 3 guys deep.

$26 Ingram/11

$16 Wells/6

$14 Hightower/5

$11 McGahee/6

$10 M.Bush/8

$03 Tate/11

Made the switch from Lynch, who I'm really high on, to Ingram based solely on fear after watching TJax play QB for Seattle. I hate paying that much for a RB, but I had the money free so I went for it. I wish the roster could've been 35ish. I was really down on Wells last year, but quite high on him this year now that they have a decent QB. I was going to take him before Williams go hurt. Hightower I'm not sold on, but I wasn't sold on Jacobs, either. I've been a M.Bush fan for a while, so I loved his price. With him and McGahee, I hope to get some TD production. Tate (in place of Barber) was a knee jerk pick after his first preseason game and I just never removed him. My initial game plan was to pick a group that will get me two guys that score a single TD each per week, thus yielding 2 double digit scores. Was not looking to fill my flex spot with a RB. If it happens, then that's a bonus.

$19 Collie/11

$19 Ocho/7

$10 Evans/5

$10 Moore/11

$08 Burleson/9

$08 Bennett/8

$07 Hester/8

$05 Berrian/9

$03 Brown/11

I've got a lot of week 11 byes but I can weather is as I've got 9WR. Lots of guys that burned me last year on here in Evans, Hester, and Berrian. They were cheaper this year and in better situations, so easy choices. I was really thinking about removing Collie last night, but I don't need him early. He could be a driving force for the home stretch. Ocho I really like as well. Moore and Burleson were guys I almost took last year. Very happy to have them this year. I switched Amendola for Bennett a few days ago. I'm really gambling on the Bears' passing game. At one point Roy Williams was on my roster (pre-Bennett). Brown was a can't pass in a best ball format. Especially for $3.

$12 Daniels/11

$07 Boss/8

$06 Kendricks/5

$02 Moore/5

$02 Pitta/5

I swapped my initial picks of Watson and Dicksen for their counterparts in Moore and Pitta a couple days after the contest opened and saved $10. Started out with Olsen and Heap, but soon switched to Boss and Kendricks. Campbell produces good TE stats. Can't be certain about Newton. Daniels was a steal. Obviously I wasn't the only one to think so. I loved the value here and with 1.5 pt/rec I was going 5TE even if I paid $15 more. My initial game plan was to get my flex out of my TE the majority of the time.

$2 Lindell/7

$2 Feely/6

$2 Dawson/5

Wanted 3-4, and at that number, no need to go more than $2, imo. Got mildly lucky that out of the few $2 kickers who were actually still on teams had different byes.

$3 Hou/11

$2 Buf/7

$2 Den/6

$2 Jax/9

Wanted 3-4. Was disappointed there weren't four $2 teams. Just gotta hope for a pick 6 from one of these teams each week. I didn't know Houston would be so popular. I thought I was allowing myself a little bit of homerism.

Overall, I felt a lot better about this contest a couple weeks ago. Now that I'm looking at it, I've got 2/6 RBs, 3/9 WRs, 1/5 TEs, and 1/4 Ds on bye in week 11. That doesn't scare me much, but if Manning isn't playing and Ocho doesn't pan out then I wasted $38 on two WR. Those two factors combine to make me feel less excited than I anticipated.

That's a healthy helping of Bears. Going to make or break you.

 

[inyoutees]

Like everyone else, had a hard time this year with plenty of changes. Ended up with a roster of 30, which surprised me. Was bounced in week 11 last year with a roster of 26.

Tony Romo (5) $25 5.7%Matthew Stafford (9) $18 39.3%
Spent more than most here ($43) which ended up right at the 60th percentile... thought my spend would have been higher. Really believe that QB is the one position where you have to take a stud. Love Romo and his week 5 bye. Had him last year (and Ben) and survived week 5 with a zero from the QB position, which cemented my belief in preferring players with early byes. Almost went with Stafford, Colt, & Henne here, but just couldn't trust any of them. On the Stafford bandwagon, but hoped Romo would give me some uniqueness. Mission accomplished.

Chris Wells (6) $16 29.1 Brandon Jacobs (7) $16 6.0 Mike Tolbert (6) $15 9.0 Pierre Thomas (11) $ 7 15.7 Jerome Harrison (9) $ 5 10.3 Deji Karim (9) $ 3 12.7Ben Tate (11) $ 3 37.8 Isaac Redman (11) $ 2 10.7
8 total, $67. Under the 20th percentile in total spend here. I've long thought that people pay too much for the RB position in this contest. Haven't run any numbers, but my feeling from browsing past top-10 finishes was that there were very few stud RBs around. I don't like how the byes line up, but decided I could live with them. The idea is that my flex will be filled by WR/TE most weeks, so I'm only looking for two scores here. Tried really hard to avoid the Reggie Bush / Tim Hightower bandwagons, though I thought they were values I couldn't trust either to be RB2 for me. Surprised by the relative uniqueness of Jacobs and Tolbert. Every time I came back to edit I felt I was weak at RB and tried to fit another flier in... wanted Barber and Hardesty. At the last minute removed Barber, just don't trust the health or that OLine.

Kenny Britt (6) $21 3.5 Dez Bryant (5) $21 20.8 Mario Manningham (7) $19 19.7 Lance Moore (11) $10 19.9 Nate Burleson (9) $ 8 30.3 Bernard Berrian (9) $ 5 11.3 Harry Douglas (8) $ 4 9.2 Denarius Moore (8) $ 3 26.5
8 total, $91 spent, somewhere around the 70th percentile. Had 10 WR for most of my entries, but kept moving money on the fliers to RB. Couldn't pass up the obvious values, and thought that Britt was flying somewhat under the radar and could work out really well in a best ball format. He's owned less than I expected. Liked the early byes of my bigger dollar investments. Looking back now, I still wish I had more of the cheap upside guys here.

Owen Daniels (11) $12 25.0 Aaron Hernandez (7) $10 23.6 Lance Kendricks (5) $ 6 38.1 Evan Moore (5) $ 2 13.4
Chalk. 4 total for $30, 80+ percentile. These seemed like the obvious bargains at TE. Clearly everyone else felt so too. I almost went with Gonzo rather than Hernandez here, but figured the upside of Hernandez was better for the best ball format. Almost switched to Pitta at the last minute as well after a report of him working in the slot in BAL. I was hoping my uniqueness here would come from having all four of the big value guys. We'll see how that works out.

Other:

Rian Lindell $2 Olindo Mare $2 Jay Feely $2 Phil Dawson $2 ---------------------------------Cleveland Browns $3 St. Louis Rams $3 Arizona Cardinals $3 Buffalo Bills $2
Definitely became a believer of 3 K last year. Thought I'd try the old "add 'em until you don't have any roster space left" trick. 4 may be overkill on defense, but for $8 it seemed like a good play at K. We'll see.

 

[PartlyDowdy]

Drew Brees

Tom Brady

Would've liked a 3rd QB, but these 2 have good matchups during the other one's bye week (well, on paper anyway--season hasn't even started so who knows)

Cedric Benson

Chris Wells

Reggie Bush

Ronnie Brown

Toby Gerhart

Deji Karim

Derrick Ward

Cadillac Williams

Marion Barber

With a few injuries, the bottom 6 could be gold. Not that I'm hoping for injuries, but they are a reality.

Robert Meachem

Davone Bess

Mike Sims-Walker

James Jones

Kevin Walter

Nate Burleson

Malcom Floyd

Antonio Brown

Michael Jenkins

Went with all 2nd/3rd WRs...my thinking is that the studs get the coverage and while these guys won't be consistent each week, I'm hoping for a few to explode from time to time. For example, JJones could go 1/7/0 in one week to 5/132/2 the next.

Visanthe Shiancoe

Kevin Boss

Brent Celek

Lance Kendricks

Not terribly pleased with these guys...not sure what I was thinking...feel like I should've put more consideration into the 1.5 PPR value for TEs.

Rob Bironas

Connor Barth

Rian Lindell

pfft, kickers.

St. Louis Rams

Arizona Cardinals

Jacksonville Jaguars

didn't see any penalties in giving up points or yardage, so hoping for a few returns-for-TDs.

 

[kylechoffman]

Ben Roethlisberger $23

Kevin Kolb $15

Early in my entries I had three qbs, for the main reason that if one goes down you are safe for the most part. I had rivers for a long time but I liked the value of Kolb and Rivers had the same bye week. Chose big ben to compensate for the bye.

Ray Rice $35

Chris Wells $16

Reggie Bush $15

Mike Tolbert $15

Tim Hightower $14

Killing myself for not putting ward or tate in the mix here but other than rice I see all of these guys as solid value plays and good situations. Rice was the best value for a high end stud.

Vincent Jackson $25

Mike Wallace $23

Julio Jones $17

Lance Moore $10

Antonio Brown $3

Randall Cobb $3

Denarius Moore $3

I wanted two top tier guys here on good teams and vjax and wallace represented good prices in relation to the other guys up there. Julio was a bit of a reach but seems like a lot of people picked him. Moore is out in week one and Im ok with him resting for a few weeks to get healthy for when hes really needed. I decided to add a bunch of low end guys to cover bye weeks and hope for a home run with any one of them.

Lance Kendricks $6

Fred Davis $5

Jacob Tamme $3

Randy McMichael $2

Originally had heap and henricks but decided to add more low end TEs for flex plays and bye week fillers. Im hoping F Davis takes over for cooley - that would be a great value pick.

Sebastian Janikowski $4

Rian Lindell $2

Jay Feely $2

Threw darts at the board on this one. Wanted three.

Detroit Lions $6

Houston Texans $3

Houston is great value, especially if they pull it together. These two teams were the highest % picks so clearly many think alike with my picks on D.

My problem last year was too many byes late in the season. I corrected that problem this year so now its about picking the right guys. Good luck to all.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Here are the teams that rostered/spent the most at each position:

QB: $232 100730RB: $173 104930WR: $152 110694TE: $95  105480PK: $77  110566TD: $62  103972QB: 19 100730RB: 14 100629, 102991WR: 22 105140TE: 7  109878, 100910, 100571, 103108, 109266PK: 20 106532 <img src='http://forumimages.footballguys.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/pickles.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':pickle:' />TD: 9  110680, 110091, 103972

 

[jdoggydogg]

Interesting:

Number of entries by roster size: 3,568 people have an 18 man squad

I know we debate roster sizes every year. But I'm going to go ahead and predict that almost all of these will not make the final top 20.

 

[pocketducks]

Pocketducks

-----------

Philip Rivers $24

Matt Ryan $21

I wanted a top elite QB and Rivers was the best one I felt for the $$$. Honestly, Ryan might have been a homer pick since I now live in Atlanta. Originally I was targeting Bradford or Stafford but essentially cashed in Hardesty to upgrade to Ryan. Went with Ryan for some uniqueness, he plays in 12 dome games this year, I like his “playoff weeks” and there might be shoot outs with NO and TB this year. I also wanted a piece of SD and ATL passing games but thought that their position players cost too much.

-----------

LeGarrette Blount $25

Ahmad Bradshaw $25

Felix Jones $23

Marion Barber $3

Isaac Redman $2

RBs were the hardest to choose. There was no obvious bargains like last year’s Foster so I tried to target Rbs in the 12-20 range with possible upside. I don’t trust Wells and I like Hightower but don’t trust Shanahan to stick with a RB. For the cost I loved Hillis, Jones, and SJax but they all had the same bye week. So spreading out the bye weeks and banking on the NYG being behind so Bradshaw sees more playing time. Also I have a gut feeling that Blount gets more receptions than projected. Redman was a flier bc I believe in the curse of 370.

-----------

Wes Welker $23

Mike Wallace $23

Nate Burleson $8

Danny Amendola $8

Earl Bennett $8

Antonio Brown $3

Denarius Moore $3

Dexter McCluster $2

With the WRs and TEs I wanted to a get pieces of good passing teams like NE, PIT, and DET. Since I passed on Big Ben and Stafford I targeted Wallace & Brown and Pettigrew & Burleson. Same for Welker & Hernandez to help balance out the ups and downs. McCluster is a RB disguised as a WR and was a late round flier. I see him as the primary 3D RB which is good for check-down-Cassel and I see him as the primary backup to Charles if anything happens for him.

-----------

Owen Daniels $12

Brandon Pettigrew $11

Aaron Hernandez $10

The TEs represented the best value out of all the positions with the 1.5 PPR. So I wanted to get 3 solid TEs hoping that one or two have breakout years and projected that my RB/WR/TE flex might come from my 2nd TE.

-----------

Dan Bailey $3

Shaun Suisham $3

Jay Feely $2

St. Louis Rams $3

Carolina Panthers $3

Denver Broncos $2

3 K’s and Def’s to minimize the downs and to maximize the best ball effect.

Lessons learned:

Since this is my first time subscribing and doing this contest I learned a few things looking at other's rosters.

1. I think I might have spent too much on QB and probably could have gotten another RB or WR.

2. I also might have spent too much on TE thinking that getting my RB/WR/TE flex from my TE might not have been a good strategy.

3. I tried spreading out the bye weeks but did not think of staggering them to the earlier bye week. I think I am weak during week 11 and might miss the cut.

4. Finally, I had the strategy of targeting a lot of PPR WRs but they do not have upside and might not be best play in this contest.



Any thoughts?

 

[Captain Quinoa]

Interesting:

Number of entries by roster size: 3,568 people have an 18 man squad

I know we debate roster sizes every year. But I'm going to go ahead and predict that almost all of these will not make the final top 20.

Completely agree. I guarantee that at least 3,548 of those will not make the final top 20.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Here's my bunch. Commentary later. I think my team is slightly more unique than my usual efforts.

QB - Brady $27 9.8% owned

QB - Hasselbeck $11 1.9%

QB - McCoy $10 22.2%

RB - ADP $37 8.7%

RB - Benson $17 4.6%

RB - Hightower $14 37.4%

RB - P Thomas $7 15.7%

RB - M Barber $3 13.8%

RB - Redman $2 10.7%

WR - V Jackson $25 30.3%

WR - S Moss $16 11.5%

WR - Burress $10 13.7%

WR - L Evans $10 18.8%

WR - Burleson $8 30.3%

WR - A Brown $3 30.8%

WR - D Moore $3 26.5%

WR - Cribbs $2 7.2%

TE - O Daniels $12 25.0%

TE - Hernandez $10 23.6%

TE - F Davis $5 5.2%

TE - E Moore $2 13.4%

PK - Suisham $3 20.3%

PK - Nugent $2 3.4%

PK - Feely $2 23.9%

TD - Dallas $4 12.8%

TD - Arizona $3 14.5%

TD - Buffalo $2 12.1%

So there ya go

-QG

 

[Jayrod]

Pocketducks

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Philip Rivers $24

Matt Ryan $21

I wanted a top elite QB and Rivers was the best one I felt for the $$$. Honestly, Ryan might have been a homer pick since I now live in Atlanta. Originally I was targeting Bradford or Stafford but essentially cashed in Hardesty to upgrade to Ryan. Went with Ryan for some uniqueness, he plays in 12 dome games this year, I like his “playoff weeks” and there might be shoot outs with NO and TB this year. I also wanted a piece of SD and ATL passing games but thought that their position players cost too much.

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LeGarrette Blount $25

Ahmad Bradshaw $25

Felix Jones $23

Marion Barber $3

Isaac Redman $2

RBs were the hardest to choose. There was no obvious bargains like last year’s Foster so I tried to target Rbs in the 12-20 range with possible upside. I don’t trust Wells and I like Hightower but don’t trust Shanahan to stick with a RB. For the cost I loved Hillis, Jones, and SJax but they all had the same bye week. So spreading out the bye weeks and banking on the NYG being behind so Bradshaw sees more playing time. Also I have a gut feeling that Blount gets more receptions than projected. Redman was a flier bc I believe in the curse of 370.

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Wes Welker $23

Mike Wallace $23

Nate Burleson $8

Danny Amendola $8

Earl Bennett $8

Antonio Brown $3

Denarius Moore $3

Dexter McCluster $2

With the WRs and TEs I wanted to a get pieces of good passing teams like NE, PIT, and DET. Since I passed on Big Ben and Stafford I targeted Wallace & Brown and Pettigrew & Burleson. Same for Welker & Hernandez to help balance out the ups and downs. McCluster is a RB disguised as a WR and was a late round flier. I see him as the primary 3D RB which is good for check-down-Cassel and I see him as the primary backup to Charles if anything happens for him.

-----------

Owen Daniels $12

Brandon Pettigrew $11

Aaron Hernandez $10

The TEs represented the best value out of all the positions with the 1.5 PPR. So I wanted to get 3 solid TEs hoping that one or two have breakout years and projected that my RB/WR/TE flex might come from my 2nd TE.

-----------

Dan Bailey $3

Shaun Suisham $3

Jay Feely $2

St. Louis Rams $3

Carolina Panthers $3

Denver Broncos $2

3 K’s and Def’s to minimize the downs and to maximize the best ball effect.

Lessons learned:

Since this is my first time subscribing and doing this contest I learned a few things looking at other's rosters.

1. I think I might have spent too much on QB and probably could have gotten another RB or WR.

2. I also might have spent too much on TE thinking that getting my RB/WR/TE flex from my TE might not have been a good strategy.

3. I tried spreading out the bye weeks but did not think of staggering them to the earlier bye week. I think I am weak during week 11 and might miss the cut.

4. Finally, I had the strategy of targeting a lot of PPR WRs but they do not have upside and might not be best play in this contest.



Any thoughts?

#1 - I generally agree, but you are safer than most teams at QB with two quality starters.#2 - You are fine at TE and using a TE for flex is very common throughout the season. Most teams went cheaper because of the guys available.

#3 - You are fine in week 11 from what I can tell (only missing 2 quality players in Wallace & Daniels)

#4 - I think this is accurate. Best ball means a cheap player who scores 25 points two times a year is probably more valuable than a cheap player who scores 10 points every week. However, Brown and McCluster are more of the boom/bust type, IMO, so I think you are OK there.

Not a bad roster at all. But then again, I made the final 250 my first year (2008) and haven't been back since, so what do I know. (I think I've been out somwhere between weeks 8-11 each of the past two seasons)

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Last year we debated a definition of a "junk" entry. I don't think there's any definitive criteria, but I suggested that any roster that is taking a guaranteed zero at a position in any week qualifies (e.g. if you only rostered 2 RBs, then you'll be taking a zero at RB when each of them is on bye). It's not a perfect definition but I think it's a start.

With that in mind, here are the number of entries that are taking a guaranteed zero at some position at some point this year:

Size Count Percent18 1043 29.2%19 267 19.2%20 117 11.0%21 76 9.1%22 43 5.6%23 35 5.5%24 18 3.3%25 5 1.3%26 10 2.4%27 12 4.1%28 7 2.6%29 3 1.4%30 15 4.0%
So basically 30% of 18-man rosters are going to be shorthanded at least once this season. Note that I didn't account for byes here, I was just looking for teams that had fewer than the absolute minimum required at a position (2 QB, 3 RB, etc). So surely the numbers are greater than what I presented here, since there might be a team that, for example, has 4 RBs but three of them are on bye the same week. My query wouldn't have counted that team even though they would fall under this definition of "junk" entries.

 

[Jayrod]

Interesting:

Number of entries by roster size: 3,568 people have an 18 man squad

I know we debate roster sizes every year. But I'm going to go ahead and predict that almost all of these will not make the final top 20.

Completely agree. I guarantee that at least 3,548 of those will not make the final top 20.

This guy knows stuff.

 

[jdoggydogg]

My team:

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Philip Rivers $24

Colt McCoy $10

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I think Rivers represents great value at this price. He's cheaper than the big five QBs, but I think he'll finish in that bracket easily.

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Felix Jones $23

Tim Hightower $14

Pierre Thomas $7

Thomas Jones $7

Roy Helu $7

Cadillac Williams $3

Marion Barber $3

Taiwan Jones $2

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By far my weakest group. But this was a conscious decision. RBs are by far the worst values in this season's contest. Every time I added a $34 RB, I opted for the cheaper RB and spent the money on WRs. Pierre Thomas is underrated this year. LaGarrette Blount was a safer pick than Felix in some regards, but Felix has far more upside. Something tells me that Taiwan Jones is going to earn a few explosive plays this year and actually help my team once or twice down the stretch.

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Hakeem Nicks $29

Vincent Jackson $25

Santana Moss $16

Lee Evans $10

Nate Burleson $8

Danny Amendola $8

Steve Breaston $7

Harry Douglas $4

Denarius Moore $3

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The best bargains in this contest are at TE and WR. There is so much awesome value at this position, it was hard to pick just 9 players. Vincent Jackson is a steal at $25. Moss is great value at $16. Nate Burleson is going to be a monster opposite Calvin. Amendola will get more catches than guys twice his price.

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Owen Daniels $12

Aaron Hernandez $10

Fred Davis $5

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Why someone would pay top dollar for the big five TEs is beyond me. Daniels is insane value at $12, and Hernandez is a steal at $10. I think Davis will end up with better stats than Cooley this year.

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Rob Bironas $3

David Akers $3

Olindo Mare $2

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Thought about going with 22 kickers, but settled on three.

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Houston Texans $3

Buffalo Bills $2

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I am not willing to spend big money at K and D.