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**Official 2015 Off-Season Dynasty Completed Trades Thread** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Dr. Octopus
- Start date
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
True - If they don't make the playoff's - it's a top 6 pick - with the potential of winning the toliet bowl for 1.1
Their roster - Matt Ryan, Spiller, Sankey, Antonio Brown, Golden Tate off hand, can't think of his WR3, TE or Flex.
Rolling_akg
Footballguy
Devonta Freeman for Jaelen Strong
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
well that escalated quickly. depends on makeup of team but give me future first unless he was desperate for a wr.
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
love freeman at that price. not sure i would have taken coleman ahead of freeman in this years rookie draft and coleman is going before strong in most drafts i saw.
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
No matter how desperate you are for a WR. thats a brutal trade that you never make. Horrible.
Jrodicus
Footballguy
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
vjax had 2 tds last year, ill call that a rare occasion. but i am not blind to the rookie pick love around here i understand the hate of this deal. vets like him are valuable to some people you know what your gonna get.
One More Rep
Footballguy
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Fully agree with you that rookie picks tend to be overvalued, particularly at this time of year, but this is still a bad deal IMO. Jackson is 32, his stats have declined two years running, and his target share vs Evans is going to go down. He's a short window asset, but looks pretty hugely unlikely to provide anything resembling difference-making production for that window. If you need WR3 production for a few years, you can get it cheaper than a 1st -- this is paying for Jackson's name and past production.
FUBAR
Footballguy
as a guy who traded my 2016 1st for DeSean Jackson, I think you're going "just a tad" overboard here. Granted, I think DeSean is worth a lot more than VJax, but others might disagree with that. Now, I'd sure try to see what else he could get better than VJ, but VJ might just be a player who improves an otherwise strong team enough to win the championship.
FWIW, FBG's dynasty ranking has him near Mike Wallace and frankly, I wouldn't give Wallace for a 2016 1st if the pick is expected to be late.
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VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
i think that is a big assumption. they drafted Evans to be their eventual #1 but to assume he will just get more targets this year "just because" is a big reach. vjax is still a good wr, his stats declined because his qbs sucked and mccown locked on to evans in the redzone. even if vjax gets 120 targets down from his 143 that still very good.
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blardorg
Footballguy
DJax is worth a lot more than VJax. Late 2016 1st for Desean is reasonable for both sides, he was a WR2 last year, yeah? But if you're counting on VJax as an every week starter, I don't think you'll be winning the championship anyway... and if he isn't going to be an every week starter, why burn a 2016 1st on him? At the very least, the VJax owner would have almost certainly accepted less for him. 2016 2nd or late 2015 2nd / early 2015 3rd probably would've gotten him.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Agree to disagree. IMO it's blindingly obvious that Evans is an ascendant elite talent and Jackson is in decline (not dropping precipitously, but definitely on the downslope).
Also, 120 targets from a rookie QB is going to net you meh WR3 production even if the TDs normalize. I just don't see any realistic path for Jackson (outside of very low percentage stuff like Evans missing a huge chunk of time, or Winston being Luck 2.0 immediately) to provide production likely to put someone over the top. If you have a realistic championship contender, he's depth. If you don't, you have no business trading future 1sts for an aging player.
VarsityBlues123
Footballguy
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Saw this one and thought it was interesting...
(14 team PPR, 1/2/3/1 w/ 3 flex)
Jordan Matthews
2016 1st (mid?)
for
1.01
Darren McFadden
(14 team PPR, 1/2/3/1 w/ 3 flex)
Jordan Matthews
2016 1st (mid?)
for
1.01
Darren McFadden
16 team full idp tiered PPR (.25/.5/1) 1/1/2/1 2Flex (offense)
I earned the 1.01 on potential points but went 4-9. During our rookie draft (ongoing)
Gave: Denard Robinson/Storm Johnson/2016 2nd
Got: RGIII/Cousins
*Full disclosure: I was starting Geno last year and was going to have to this year. I also have another teams 1st next year (mid maybe?)
I earned the 1.01 on potential points but went 4-9. During our rookie draft (ongoing)
Gave: Denard Robinson/Storm Johnson/2016 2nd
Got: RGIII/Cousins
*Full disclosure: I was starting Geno last year and was going to have to this year. I also have another teams 1st next year (mid maybe?)
You aptly observe that there have been 72 1st rounders since 2009 (6 times 12). You are also correct that there are nowhere close to 72 top level players today (lets say 36). However, these two facts have little to no bearing on the argument you are trying to make.
Taking this to the conclusion that I think you were trying to reach, if only 12 of those Top Level 36 were 1st rounders (for arguments sake), you are thinking that "only" one-sixth of ALL 1st rounders dating back to 2009 end up being top level players in 2015 is bad. Is it though?
First off, I am not sure that 12 1st rounders from 2009 have much if anything to do with your argument. Did anyone expect in 2009 that there was any likelihood that Brian Robiskie would be a Top 36 player in 2015? Was anyone trading a stud for Brian Robiskie in 2009?
But, for the sake of argument, lets say those 12 1st rounders back in 2009, even Brian Robiskie, do relate to your argument. You might say then that out of 12 1st rounders in 2009, only one is in the Top 36 today – LeSean McCoy. Only one. Terrible, right?
Lets look at a vet sample as well. I’ll use the Top 12 WRs as the “stud” vet sample, because I have built my dynasty teams on top WRs, and they carry great value universally year after year.
Now I think we can all agree that the Top 12 Dynasty WR in any given year are far more valuable (in trade especially) than the Top 12 Rookie Picks of that same year. Even in such a year as this, with a number of people proclaiming Todd Gurley as potentially a generational talent, the Top Dynasty WR is still worth more than Gurley. I think we can all agree on the following:
Dez Bryant > 1.1
Julio Jones >> 1.2
Antonio Brown >> 1.3
Dez Bryant >> 1.3
AJ Green >> 1.4
Demaryius Thomas >> 1.5
Odell Beckham Jr >>>1.6
Calvin Johnson >>>1.7
Mike Evans >>> 1.8
Alshon Jeffery >> 1.9
Deandre Hopkins >> 1.10
Randall Cobb >> 1.11
Sammy Watkins >> 1.12
The Top 12 WR crush the Top 12 Rookies 1 for 1 anyway you look at it. Sammy Watkins against the 1.12 is just not fair. In fact, the Top 12 WRs, in my estimation, would garner more than 2.5 times the trade value of Rookie Picks 1-12. But, for arguments sake, lets go ahead and use this group as the comparison group against the rookies.
So in 2009, out of the Top 12 Dynasty WRs, how many are in the Top 36 today? One – Calvin Johnson. Top Rookies, One – Lesean McCoy. Top WR 1, Top Rookies 1.
In 2010, again only 1 Top 12 WR is in the Top 36 overall players today – Calvin Johnson. Top 2010 Rookies, 2 – Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas
2011 Top WRs – 2 players – Dez Bryant and Calvin Johnson
2011 Rookies: 3 players – AJ Green, Julio Jones and Randall Cobb
2012 Top WRs – 4
2012 Rookies - 2
2013 Top WRs – 6
2013 Rookies – 3
2014 Top WRs - 9
2014 Top Rookies - 6
Final Score:
Top 12 WRs = 23 (32%) – 6 of which by the way is all time great Calvin Johnson by himself
Top 12 Rookies = 17 (24%)
So even against a stud group with upwards of 2.5 times the value in trade, the rookies hold their own. The rookies lose (duh, especially when you can count Calvin 6 times and Dez Bryant another 4!), but you could have acquired all the rookie picks in any given year at far less cost than acquiring all Top 12 WRs, so winning wasn’t really realistic.
Does any of this mean that Rookies are greater than Vets in the grand debate? Not necessarily. But the data you use in your argument doesn’t exactly paint the slam dunk picture that you think it does.
One More Rep
Footballguy
1.1Dan Hindery said:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
ThisJrodicus said:
Over the long term you HAVE to get the appropriate value when dealing the top guys for rookie picks, or else that's a quick way to suck city
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I think just about anyone would. Well, except one guylardonastick said:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
With deals like this he will be desperate for a lot of things a lot of the timeVarsityBlues123 said:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So pick 4 vs alshon jeffrey. Which one you taking? Bell or pick 1, which one you taking?
It's a bad idea to deal the top overall dynasty players (especially the young ones who have proven themselves for a couple years) for a rookie. That's the picture to be painted.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Think I'm with you guys, lean towards the 1.01 side. I'm curious to see if he'll take Cooper or Gurley.maxhyde said:
Definitely pretty deep which makes it challenging, especially with bye weeks. It also increases the value of a guy like Matthews who is a pretty safe bet over the long-term (especially when you can start 6 WRs) vs. a guy like McFadden who may have one good year (if that) and then be about done.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
IMO it's a much more legit ? / tough decision for a true championship contender when faced with the chance to fill a need with an aging stud -- say a Calvin or a Charles for an acquired high 1st. That's a hard call for a great "short window" type team.
Thats the picture you painted by observing that there have been 72 1st rounders in 6 years? That there are fewer than 72 top players today?
That is the data you used, and that is the data to which I responded.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Maybe a hard call, but at least in that case you know you are getting appropriate value for those guys.
I see a rather large difference between dealing guys like Bell/Jeffrey/Green/Julio than I do Charles/Peterson/Lynch/Calvin.....................
In the case of a team that needs the more sure production NOW, then you gotta decide if it's ok to overpay to open up your window of opportunity. I am of the opinion that if I am not one of the top few teams then I would rather get good value for my aging players and build.
I have overpaid for players before to win "now". It can be a delicate balance regarding that window of opportunity. But no window size makes sense (for me) to deal young top end players for a pick.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I said that is the picture to be painted, not the picture that I painted with that post.
Relax, that other post was in no way proof of anything, just some general comments in response to another post.
It seems to me that this may be more of a discussion of individual players Leveon Bell and Alshon Jeffery than Young Vet Super Stud vs 1.1.
Few, if any, would trade Julio Jones or Dez Bryant straight up for the 1.1 or Mike Evans or AJ Green for the 1.4.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
its a combination of philosophy and individual evaluations. Always is.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Right. This entire discussion started off when CP blasted a bunch of people for suggesting Jeffrey > 1.04.
Borden
Footballguy
12 team, Non PPR, Full IDP (Zealots league).
Traded Away:
VJax
Steve Smith
Devonta Freeman
Got:
JPP
The Atlanta backfield seems to be a time share now and we switched to having to start 3 DL. My team isn't in contention so the aging WRs weren't going to do anything really for anyways.
Traded Away:
VJax
Steve Smith
Devonta Freeman
Got:
JPP
The Atlanta backfield seems to be a time share now and we switched to having to start 3 DL. My team isn't in contention so the aging WRs weren't going to do anything really for anyways.
blardorg
Footballguy
Yeah, those two receivers have very little value, and Freeman took a big hit with the draft too. Good trade, even if DLs are relatively low scoring in your league.
jeaton6
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
fredsavage
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
I will take what you gaveFFPC 12 team
Gave 2.4, 2.12, 2 projected mid to late 2016 1sts (both were playoff teams last year)
Received 1.9
Flame away.
deancheated
Footballguy
PPR dynasty
Gave: Reggie Bush & 2.8
Got: 2.6
Had to pair down total players and sadly this was the best offer I could get. Oh how the once mighty has fallen....
Gave: Reggie Bush & 2.8
Got: 2.6
Had to pair down total players and sadly this was the best offer I could get. Oh how the once mighty has fallen....
