*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (1 Viewer)

[Sammy3469]

I would add NC to Obama's "battleground." Possibly other southern states, as well. NC in particular, though, because of the influx of latte drinkers and college proffesors.

I'm not holding my breath.

It depends on whether you think McCain's current polling numbers are his ceiling or floor. If they're a ceiling then a lot of states like NC will be more or less battleground. The good part of Obama over Hillary is that he opens up the map so much more and is going to have such a monetary advantage over him that McCain is going to have a hard time both maintaining past Republican swing state wins (like the Mountain West, OH) and attacking Obama in past Democratic swing states wins like PA. People can say Obama is going to have a hard time keeping PA or winning OH, but McCain is also going to have a heck of a hard time attacking there and defending somewhere like VA. Oh and yes I'm assuming Hillary is done preferably tonight, but more likely May 7th.

 

[Pai Mei]

:joined in progress:

:Obama, wearing shades, stands in center of ring alone:

Obama: And McCain! Get ready to to go ONE! ON ONE! WITH THE GREAT ONE!

:fans cheer:

Obama: And get ready to check your fat ### into the Smackdown Hotel!

:fans cheer:

:lights go out:

JR: What is goin on? Is McCain here?

:massive pyro display at the top of the ramp:

:cue music:

Hillary: Welcome to Raw! is! Clinton!

Obama: aces: :smirks:

Hillary: For those that don't know me, I am Hillary Clinton, your new hero! The most charismatic person to ever enter your television screen! I am the dawning of a new era!

:fans chant Obama! Obama!:

Hillary: Thank you! Thank you!

:fans keep chanting for Obama:

Hillary: And a new era is what the nation sorely needs! Hillary Clinton has come to save the USA! You could care less about every single candidate in the dressing room, and especially that idiot in the center of the ring. You people have been led to believe that mediocrity (points to Obama) is excellence. Hillary is Excellence!

JR: Oh c'mon.

Hillary: Now you finally have someone you can cheer for!

ause as Hillary smiles and waves and Obama slowly brings his mic to his lips:

Obama: After THREE BORING minutes, Barack says to KNOW YOUR ROLE AND SHUT YOUR MOUTH!

:Hillary looks around at crowd confused:

Obama: How dare you JABRONI come on Barack's show and not even have the class to introduce yourself?! What is your name?

Hillary: I TOLD you my na-

Obama: IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOUR NAME IS! Barack says you talk about your plan for a new era? Well Barack has a plan of his own! And its called the KY Jelly plan and--

:Obama stops and cocks his head slighty to listen to the fans cheer:

Obama: Which means Barack is gonna lube his size 13 shoe real good, turn that sumb*tch sideways, and STICK IT STRAIGHT UP YOUR CANDY @ZZ! IF YOU SMELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL WHAT BARACK IS COOKIN'!

lolI surprised you left out the part about Barack dropping the "People's Elbow" on her... a communist manuver if ever I've heard one.

I'll book that in a future episode...

 

[GSteps]

Obama hasn't won any big states

Obama won TX. Let's end that myth.You're buying into the media buzz. Clinton is too far behind. She would need a tidal wave of momentum to win. It's not going to happen. Obama is going to win NC and IN anyway, just to slam the door. A single digit win in PA for Hillary literally means nothing. She has to have a monumental win in PA.. like 65-35. That's not going to happen.

The math just doesn't work for her, and the media's continued effort to mischaracterize the race is pretty amusing. They don't seem to ever be ahead of the curve on any of this.

Obama won a Rigged caucus in Texas, Hillary won the Primary so your statement is false. It does not matter, Obama will be the Nominee but will receive no more than 45% percent of the vote in the general. Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan will be in the McCain column come November. A caucus is not a true democratic system. They don't necessarily represent the will of the Voters in the state but are a representation of the most active participants in the party.

I have a whole case of towels to hand out for all you after the election, I will send them to you if needed.

You could argue that the Texas primary was subverted. Strategically minded Republicans voted for Clinton in Texas to give her the primary victory. Clinton received roughly 119,000 GOP votes in Texas, according to exit polls, and she beat Obama by about 101,000 votes. The ditto heads did not stick around for the caucuses.

 

[flufhed]

Listen guys, it is this simple:

slim delegate lead + slim popular vote lead + losing certain important swing states + Florida + possibly alieanating whites, Jews and Hispanics + Rev. Wright + neither candidate able to acquire enough pledged delegates to secure nomination = realistic chance the supers give the nomination to Hillary.

A month or so ago I would have considered this impossible that the supers would risk pissing off black voters like this. But some of the recent stuff that has come out may give them the excuse they are looking for (if they are looking for one) to hand the nomination to Hillary.

It ain't over.

Slim delegate lead? Methinks not with a >100 lead.Slim popular vote lead? Methinks not, with a >700,000 vote lead

Losing important swing states? Yeah, to another democrat, very similar to Obama. Would those who voted for Hillary really not vote for Obama and go further away from their platforms and vote for McCain? Methinks not.

Rev Wright issue has not negatively affected him, as tested and shown by numerous polls. If anything, he's gained support from how he handled it. An issue? Methinks not.

Me also thinks that alienating whites, Jews and Hispanics a bunch of bull.

These elections, barring unforeseen calamity, are simply a process of confirming what we already know:

Obama will end with significantly more delegates, states won, and popular votes than Hillary. It's over, Hillary just doesn't know it yet.

I'm on your side. I'm just saying there is a lot of mud in the waters these days, and enough that could give the supers an excuse to give it to Hillary. Maybe not a good one, but an excuse nonetheless.

I think so too. I'm acting more confident than I actually am about the outcome. Anything can happen, and likely will. Every time Hillary has been counted out, she comes back strong. Could happen today.Actually, I'm guessing an 8-12% win by her today, and I think that'll be enough for her to stay in it, unfortunately. She's thrown so much at Obama these past few weeks that it's surprising he's so close.

But yeah, she's muddying the waters every way she can, and odds are, it will remain murky for some time. I rely simply on the math, and that says she's out of this thing, but my gut tells me it'll be a long ways yet until we can relax.

But, that's the problem. The math isn't against her. Both of them need the supers.

 

[phthalatemagic]

So wasn't today Obama's million dollar minute deal? How did that go? Really, I don't know. I figure he made more

Does anyone know?

the website says "Due to overwhelming response, we are encouraging everyone to donate at any time today. All donations will count towards the minute."Doesnt look like it happened, so they're trying to save face a bit. Either way, there's almost 1.4 million people who have donated to his campaign thus far. Still impressive

Either that, or the web servers crashed and a lot of the people who wanted to donate in the minute couldn't.

Maybe that's the case. Telling their fans to get on the website all at the same time was probably a bad idea.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

Listen guys, it is this simple:

slim delegate lead + slim popular vote lead + losing certain important swing states + Florida + possibly alieanating whites, Jews and Hispanics + Rev. Wright + neither candidate able to acquire enough pledged delegates to secure nomination = realistic chance the supers give the nomination to Hillary.

A month or so ago I would have considered this impossible that the supers would risk pissing off black voters like this. But some of the recent stuff that has come out may give them the excuse they are looking for (if they are looking for one) to hand the nomination to Hillary.

It ain't over.

Slim delegate lead? Methinks not with a >100 lead.Slim popular vote lead? Methinks not, with a >700,000 vote lead

Losing important swing states? Yeah, to another democrat, very similar to Obama. Would those who voted for Hillary really not vote for Obama and go further away from their platforms and vote for McCain? Methinks not.

Rev Wright issue has not negatively affected him, as tested and shown by numerous polls. If anything, he's gained support from how he handled it. An issue? Methinks not.

Me also thinks that alienating whites, Jews and Hispanics a bunch of bull.

These elections, barring unforeseen calamity, are simply a process of confirming what we already know:

Obama will end with significantly more delegates, states won, and popular votes than Hillary. It's over, Hillary just doesn't know it yet.

I'm on your side. I'm just saying there is a lot of mud in the waters these days, and enough that could give the supers an excuse to give it to Hillary. Maybe not a good one, but an excuse nonetheless.

I think so too. I'm acting more confident than I actually am about the outcome. Anything can happen, and likely will. Every time Hillary has been counted out, she comes back strong. Could happen today.Actually, I'm guessing an 8-12% win by her today, and I think that'll be enough for her to stay in it, unfortunately. She's thrown so much at Obama these past few weeks that it's surprising he's so close.

But yeah, she's muddying the waters every way she can, and odds are, it will remain murky for some time. I rely simply on the math, and that says she's out of this thing, but my gut tells me it'll be a long ways yet until we can relax.

But, that's the problem. The math isn't against her. Both of them need the supers.

I am all for a good debate, but lets not get silly now. The math is most certainly against her.

So, he does have enough delegates already?

 

[Mark Davis]

Texas will be McCain.. Not a battleground state.

there are plenty of other states that went Bush in 2004 that could be in play. any talk of Hillary's "electability" is a tribute to her trench fighter political will. it's not like obama wouldn't carry states that hillary won. dem strongholds are just that - strongholds.

You're discounting Florida. Every poll I've seen there shows Hillary defeating McCain and McCain defeating Obama in Florida. If that proves to be the case, then states where Obama is weaker than Hillary such as Ohio and Pennsylvania become musts for Obama. I think this is why Hillary is hanging on. She's trying to make an argument out of the electoral math and being stronger in OH and PA while getting FL as well. Obama likely secures WA and OR which are no locks for Hillary, but combined they don't equal FL. There are other smaller states like WI that favor Obama and WV that favor Hillary as well. But of the states truly in play, FL is the biggest prize.

Obama could lose FL, OH, and PA and still win the general election over McCain. It would be difficult, but looking at state-by-state polling it's still possible. He could (and has good shots at taking) VA, CO, MO, and IA. All of which went red in '04.

With none of these 3 states how do you get to 270 EVs? I think Obama has a shot in Colorado for instance and a pickup of 9 EVs there that Hillary likely has no shot at. He may very well have a good shot at IA too, possibly MO. VA may be a bit of a stretch, but I agree not impossible. Those 4 states total 40 EVs. I still don't see how the math works unless he also picked up a state such as NC, which is unlikely I'd think.

Obama would have to keep all the other states that went blue in '04, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. By doing that, he loses PA but wins the other 4 so he picks up just enough EVs to get to 270.

I stand corrected, took a 2nd look and while it's unlikely he could win all of those necessary states, it isn't impossible to consider a way for him to get to 270. Let me know if you disagree with this or if I missed one:Likely Obama wins (215 EVs): WA, OR, CA, NV, MN, WI, IL, NY, MD, DE, DC, HI, MA, VT, ME, CT, RI, NJ (NJ is polling 2% right now Obama over McCain but I doubt McCain has a legit shot here in November)

Battlegrounds to differing extents with EV's: MI (17); NH (4); IA (7); CO (9); MO (11); VA (13); OH (20); PA (21); FL (27).

If the Democrat, be it Obama or Hillary, wins 2 of 3 of OH, PA, and FL it's hard to conceive they would lose.

That looks about right. I don't know about Nevada being a "likely Obama win." I've been putting that state in the McCain likely column. Do you have any polling numbers?

Last one I saw was Obama over McCain by 4%. That one may be more of a toss-up than a likely.

 

[adonis]

Listen guys, it is this simple:

slim delegate lead + slim popular vote lead + losing certain important swing states + Florida + possibly alieanating whites, Jews and Hispanics + Rev. Wright + neither candidate able to acquire enough pledged delegates to secure nomination = realistic chance the supers give the nomination to Hillary.

A month or so ago I would have considered this impossible that the supers would risk pissing off black voters like this. But some of the recent stuff that has come out may give them the excuse they are looking for (if they are looking for one) to hand the nomination to Hillary.

It ain't over.

Slim delegate lead? Methinks not with a >100 lead.Slim popular vote lead? Methinks not, with a >700,000 vote lead

Losing important swing states? Yeah, to another democrat, very similar to Obama. Would those who voted for Hillary really not vote for Obama and go further away from their platforms and vote for McCain? Methinks not.

Rev Wright issue has not negatively affected him, as tested and shown by numerous polls. If anything, he's gained support from how he handled it. An issue? Methinks not.

Me also thinks that alienating whites, Jews and Hispanics a bunch of bull.

These elections, barring unforeseen calamity, are simply a process of confirming what we already know:

Obama will end with significantly more delegates, states won, and popular votes than Hillary. It's over, Hillary just doesn't know it yet.

I'm on your side. I'm just saying there is a lot of mud in the waters these days, and enough that could give the supers an excuse to give it to Hillary. Maybe not a good one, but an excuse nonetheless.

I think so too. I'm acting more confident than I actually am about the outcome. Anything can happen, and likely will. Every time Hillary has been counted out, she comes back strong. Could happen today.Actually, I'm guessing an 8-12% win by her today, and I think that'll be enough for her to stay in it, unfortunately. She's thrown so much at Obama these past few weeks that it's surprising he's so close.

But yeah, she's muddying the waters every way she can, and odds are, it will remain murky for some time. I rely simply on the math, and that says she's out of this thing, but my gut tells me it'll be a long ways yet until we can relax.

But, that's the problem. The math isn't against her. Both of them need the supers.

Math relies on assumptions. Assumptions state that if Obama maintains his lead in pledged delegates, popular vote, and states won, that the super delegates will not overturn the will of the people, considering both candidates are electable. Even Hillary has agreed that Obama could beat McCain, so that effectively negates any chance the super delegates would go against the will of the people.So the math, with the assumptions in place, state that even with liberal margins of victory for hillary (within reason) that she would still do very little to catch up to his delegaet lead, his popular vote lead, and his state lead. Therefore, the math seems to show that she's out of it.

What can she do to win this? Assuming, as the numbers clearly show, that she'll be down significantly in every major category when this thing ends, what can she do to convince the super delegates to vote for her? She would have to say, yes, he's electable, yes he's won more votes, yes he's won more states, yes he has hundreds of thousands of more votes than me, BUT, still, in spite of the votes, in spite of the numbers...in spite of the fact that I said he could win, you should still vote for me. Not gonna happen short of major scandal involving Obama.

 

[adonis]

Listen guys, it is this simple:

slim delegate lead + slim popular vote lead + losing certain important swing states + Florida + possibly alieanating whites, Jews and Hispanics + Rev. Wright + neither candidate able to acquire enough pledged delegates to secure nomination = realistic chance the supers give the nomination to Hillary.

A month or so ago I would have considered this impossible that the supers would risk pissing off black voters like this. But some of the recent stuff that has come out may give them the excuse they are looking for (if they are looking for one) to hand the nomination to Hillary.

It ain't over.

Slim delegate lead? Methinks not with a >100 lead.Slim popular vote lead? Methinks not, with a >700,000 vote lead

Losing important swing states? Yeah, to another democrat, very similar to Obama. Would those who voted for Hillary really not vote for Obama and go further away from their platforms and vote for McCain? Methinks not.

Rev Wright issue has not negatively affected him, as tested and shown by numerous polls. If anything, he's gained support from how he handled it. An issue? Methinks not.

Me also thinks that alienating whites, Jews and Hispanics a bunch of bull.

These elections, barring unforeseen calamity, are simply a process of confirming what we already know:

Obama will end with significantly more delegates, states won, and popular votes than Hillary. It's over, Hillary just doesn't know it yet.

I'm on your side. I'm just saying there is a lot of mud in the waters these days, and enough that could give the supers an excuse to give it to Hillary. Maybe not a good one, but an excuse nonetheless.

I think so too. I'm acting more confident than I actually am about the outcome. Anything can happen, and likely will. Every time Hillary has been counted out, she comes back strong. Could happen today.Actually, I'm guessing an 8-12% win by her today, and I think that'll be enough for her to stay in it, unfortunately. She's thrown so much at Obama these past few weeks that it's surprising he's so close.

But yeah, she's muddying the waters every way she can, and odds are, it will remain murky for some time. I rely simply on the math, and that says she's out of this thing, but my gut tells me it'll be a long ways yet until we can relax.

But, that's the problem. The math isn't against her. Both of them need the supers.

I am all for a good debate, but lets not get silly now. The math is most certainly against her.

So, he does have enough delegates already?

You guys sound like huckabee. Did y'all major in miracles and not math too?

 

[phthalatemagic]

I would add NC to Obama's "battleground." Possibly other southern states, as well. NC in particular, though, because of the influx of latte drinkers and college proffesors.

I agree. Better add SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, KY, TX and a few more too.

 

[Mark Davis]

I would add NC to Obama's "battleground." Possibly other southern states, as well. NC in particular, though, because of the influx of latte drinkers and college proffesors.

I'm not holding my breath.

I agree. If the Dems end up needing to hope for NC in November I think that McCain would take that situation in a heartbeat. I just find it unlikely Obama wins there or anywhere else in the south, with perhaps a modest chance in Virginia if you count it as southern.

 

[Hammered Finz]

Listen guys, it is this simple:

slim delegate lead + slim popular vote lead + losing certain important swing states + Florida + possibly alieanating whites, Jews and Hispanics + Rev. Wright + neither candidate able to acquire enough pledged delegates to secure nomination = realistic chance the supers give the nomination to Hillary.

A month or so ago I would have considered this impossible that the supers would risk pissing off black voters like this. But some of the recent stuff that has come out may give them the excuse they are looking for (if they are looking for one) to hand the nomination to Hillary.

It ain't over.

Slim delegate lead? Methinks not with a >100 lead.Slim popular vote lead? Methinks not, with a >700,000 vote lead

Losing important swing states? Yeah, to another democrat, very similar to Obama. Would those who voted for Hillary really not vote for Obama and go further away from their platforms and vote for McCain? Methinks not.

Rev Wright issue has not negatively affected him, as tested and shown by numerous polls. If anything, he's gained support from how he handled it. An issue? Methinks not.

Me also thinks that alienating whites, Jews and Hispanics a bunch of bull.

These elections, barring unforeseen calamity, are simply a process of confirming what we already know:

Obama will end with significantly more delegates, states won, and popular votes than Hillary. It's over, Hillary just doesn't know it yet.

I'm on your side. I'm just saying there is a lot of mud in the waters these days, and enough that could give the supers an excuse to give it to Hillary. Maybe not a good one, but an excuse nonetheless.

I think so too. I'm acting more confident than I actually am about the outcome. Anything can happen, and likely will. Every time Hillary has been counted out, she comes back strong. Could happen today.Actually, I'm guessing an 8-12% win by her today, and I think that'll be enough for her to stay in it, unfortunately. She's thrown so much at Obama these past few weeks that it's surprising he's so close.

But yeah, she's muddying the waters every way she can, and odds are, it will remain murky for some time. I rely simply on the math, and that says she's out of this thing, but my gut tells me it'll be a long ways yet until we can relax.

But, that's the problem. The math isn't against her. Both of them need the supers.

Math relies on assumptions. Assumptions state that if Obama maintains his lead in pledged delegates, popular vote, and states won, that the super delegates will not overturn the will of the people, considering both candidates are electable. Even Hillary has agreed that Obama could beat McCain, so that effectively negates any chance the super delegates would go against the will of the people.So the math, with the assumptions in place, state that even with liberal margins of victory for hillary (within reason) that she would still do very little to catch up to his delegaet lead, his popular vote lead, and his state lead. Therefore, the math seems to show that she's out of it.

What can she do to win this? Assuming, as the numbers clearly show, that she'll be down significantly in every major category when this thing ends, what can she do to convince the super delegates to vote for her? She would have to say, yes, he's electable, yes he's won more votes, yes he's won more states, yes he has hundreds of thousands of more votes than me, BUT, still, in spite of the votes, in spite of the numbers...in spite of the fact that I said he could win, you should still vote for me. Not gonna happen short of major scandal involving Obama.

Rather than making assumptions, why not just let it play out, let everyone vote, then whoever wins has earned it.. Neither candidate has reached or will reach the magical delegate number, so why shut it down?

 

[Mark Davis]

I would add NC to Obama's "battleground." Possibly other southern states, as well. NC in particular, though, because of the influx of latte drinkers and college proffesors.

I agree. Better add SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, KY, TX and a few more too.

These are all as in the bag for McCain as California and New York are for the Democrat.

 

[cobalt_27]

Listen guys, it is this simple:

slim delegate lead + slim popular vote lead + losing certain important swing states + Florida + possibly alieanating whites, Jews and Hispanics + Rev. Wright + neither candidate able to acquire enough pledged delegates to secure nomination = realistic chance the supers give the nomination to Hillary.

A month or so ago I would have considered this impossible that the supers would risk pissing off black voters like this. But some of the recent stuff that has come out may give them the excuse they are looking for (if they are looking for one) to hand the nomination to Hillary.

It ain't over.

Slim delegate lead? Methinks not with a >100 lead.Slim popular vote lead? Methinks not, with a >700,000 vote lead

Losing important swing states? Yeah, to another democrat, very similar to Obama. Would those who voted for Hillary really not vote for Obama and go further away from their platforms and vote for McCain? Methinks not.

Rev Wright issue has not negatively affected him, as tested and shown by numerous polls. If anything, he's gained support from how he handled it. An issue? Methinks not.

Me also thinks that alienating whites, Jews and Hispanics a bunch of bull.

These elections, barring unforeseen calamity, are simply a process of confirming what we already know:

Obama will end with significantly more delegates, states won, and popular votes than Hillary. It's over, Hillary just doesn't know it yet.

I'm on your side. I'm just saying there is a lot of mud in the waters these days, and enough that could give the supers an excuse to give it to Hillary. Maybe not a good one, but an excuse nonetheless.

I think so too. I'm acting more confident than I actually am about the outcome. Anything can happen, and likely will. Every time Hillary has been counted out, she comes back strong. Could happen today.Actually, I'm guessing an 8-12% win by her today, and I think that'll be enough for her to stay in it, unfortunately. She's thrown so much at Obama these past few weeks that it's surprising he's so close.

But yeah, she's muddying the waters every way she can, and odds are, it will remain murky for some time. I rely simply on the math, and that says she's out of this thing, but my gut tells me it'll be a long ways yet until we can relax.

But, that's the problem. The math isn't against her. Both of them need the supers.

Care to summarize the number of Supers she has secured in the last month versus how many Obama has secured? I wonder what the trend has been in the last month; the last three months. I'll hang up and listen.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

You guys sound like huckabee. Did y'all major in miracles and not math too?

This crap is always what gives me the giggles with democrats.There is a number of delegates that they have to hit to win the nomination. Can he get there without the supers? Can she?Basically, the Obama camp is of the collective opinion that no matter the rules, laws, policies or processes in place, when they want something really bad, they should just be allowed to do it, everyone should accept it and get out of the way, and the world would be a better place.Isn't that close to what you all say you hate about the current guy?

 

[phthalatemagic]

I would add NC to Obama's "battleground." Possibly other southern states, as well. NC in particular, though, because of the influx of latte drinkers and college proffesors.

I agree. Better add SC, GA, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN, KY, TX and a few more too.

These are all as in the bag for McCain as California and New York are for the Democrat.

Not sure about that. Everything is a battleground state as far as McCain is concerned. Of course there are some states that are locks for Obama.

 

[adonis]

You guys sound like huckabee. Did y'all major in miracles and not math too?

This crap is always what gives me the giggles with democrats.There is a number of delegates that they have to hit to win the nomination. Can he get there without the supers? Can she?Basically, the Obama camp is of the collective opinion that no matter the rules, laws, policies or processes in place, when they want something really bad, they should just be allowed to do it, everyone should accept it and get out of the way, and the world would be a better place.Isn't that close to what you all say you hate about the current guy?

Umm, first, I'm an independent.Secondly, the republicans did it too with huckabee staying in despite the "math" saying he wouldn't win it. He replied that he majored in miracles in college, not math. He lost. Other republicans urged him to drop out.This isn't a republican/democrat issue. It's an issue of politicians not knowing when to call it a game. Huckabee wasn't dividing his party, or being nearly as critical of McCain as Hilary is being of Obama. If Huckabee was causing more trouble, the calls for him to leave would've been louder.

 

[adonis]

Listen guys, it is this simple:

slim delegate lead + slim popular vote lead + losing certain important swing states + Florida + possibly alieanating whites, Jews and Hispanics + Rev. Wright + neither candidate able to acquire enough pledged delegates to secure nomination = realistic chance the supers give the nomination to Hillary.

A month or so ago I would have considered this impossible that the supers would risk pissing off black voters like this. But some of the recent stuff that has come out may give them the excuse they are looking for (if they are looking for one) to hand the nomination to Hillary.

It ain't over.

Slim delegate lead? Methinks not with a >100 lead.Slim popular vote lead? Methinks not, with a >700,000 vote lead

Losing important swing states? Yeah, to another democrat, very similar to Obama. Would those who voted for Hillary really not vote for Obama and go further away from their platforms and vote for McCain? Methinks not.

Rev Wright issue has not negatively affected him, as tested and shown by numerous polls. If anything, he's gained support from how he handled it. An issue? Methinks not.

Me also thinks that alienating whites, Jews and Hispanics a bunch of bull.

These elections, barring unforeseen calamity, are simply a process of confirming what we already know:

Obama will end with significantly more delegates, states won, and popular votes than Hillary. It's over, Hillary just doesn't know it yet.

I'm on your side. I'm just saying there is a lot of mud in the waters these days, and enough that could give the supers an excuse to give it to Hillary. Maybe not a good one, but an excuse nonetheless.

I think so too. I'm acting more confident than I actually am about the outcome. Anything can happen, and likely will. Every time Hillary has been counted out, she comes back strong. Could happen today.Actually, I'm guessing an 8-12% win by her today, and I think that'll be enough for her to stay in it, unfortunately. She's thrown so much at Obama these past few weeks that it's surprising he's so close.

But yeah, she's muddying the waters every way she can, and odds are, it will remain murky for some time. I rely simply on the math, and that says she's out of this thing, but my gut tells me it'll be a long ways yet until we can relax.

But, that's the problem. The math isn't against her. Both of them need the supers.

Math relies on assumptions. Assumptions state that if Obama maintains his lead in pledged delegates, popular vote, and states won, that the super delegates will not overturn the will of the people, considering both candidates are electable. Even Hillary has agreed that Obama could beat McCain, so that effectively negates any chance the super delegates would go against the will of the people.So the math, with the assumptions in place, state that even with liberal margins of victory for hillary (within reason) that she would still do very little to catch up to his delegaet lead, his popular vote lead, and his state lead. Therefore, the math seems to show that she's out of it.

What can she do to win this? Assuming, as the numbers clearly show, that she'll be down significantly in every major category when this thing ends, what can she do to convince the super delegates to vote for her? She would have to say, yes, he's electable, yes he's won more votes, yes he's won more states, yes he has hundreds of thousands of more votes than me, BUT, still, in spite of the votes, in spite of the numbers...in spite of the fact that I said he could win, you should still vote for me. Not gonna happen short of major scandal involving Obama.

Rather than making assumptions, why not just let it play out, let everyone vote, then whoever wins has earned it.. Neither candidate has reached or will reach the magical delegate number, so why shut it down?

The reasons for shutting it down early are clear.It's divisive, people are tiring of it, more time goes by, more attacks fly, reduces time for party to get behind one candidate, more money is being wasted on the primary when it's basically a done deal, McCain is running his PR basically unopposed, raising money for the general election is going to be delayed...

The list goes on, but people are ignoring it. Even when they know the odds against hitting the lottery are millions to one, people still buy tickets. That's what's going on here. It's silly, especially considering the stakes.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

You guys sound like huckabee. Did y'all major in miracles and not math too?

This crap is always what gives me the giggles with democrats.There is a number of delegates that they have to hit to win the nomination. Can he get there without the supers? Can she?Basically, the Obama camp is of the collective opinion that no matter the rules, laws, policies or processes in place, when they want something really bad, they should just be allowed to do it, everyone should accept it and get out of the way, and the world would be a better place.Isn't that close to what you all say you hate about the current guy?

Umm, first, I'm an independent.Secondly, the republicans did it too with huckabee staying in despite the "math" saying he wouldn't win it. He replied that he majored in miracles in college, not math. He lost. Other republicans urged him to drop out.This isn't a republican/democrat issue. It's an issue of politicians not knowing when to call it a game. Huckabee wasn't dividing his party, or being nearly as critical of McCain as Hilary is being of Obama. If Huckabee was causing more trouble, the calls for him to leave would've been louder.

Huckabee didn't drop out until McCain had the required number of delegates. If that is your measuring stick, then, well, the democrats should do the same.And again, your argument is that you guys want it real bad and of course you are right and they are wrong so just give us what we want even though the rules and laws say otherwise.

 

[phthalatemagic]

You guys sound like huckabee. Did y'all major in miracles and not math too?

This crap is always what gives me the giggles with democrats.There is a number of delegates that they have to hit to win the nomination. Can he get there without the supers? Can she?Basically, the Obama camp is of the collective opinion that no matter the rules, laws, policies or processes in place, when they want something really bad, they should just be allowed to do it, everyone should accept it and get out of the way, and the world would be a better place.Isn't that close to what you all say you hate about the current guy?

Umm, first, I'm an independent.Secondly, the republicans did it too with huckabee staying in despite the "math" saying he wouldn't win it. He replied that he majored in miracles in college, not math. He lost. Other republicans urged him to drop out.This isn't a republican/democrat issue. It's an issue of politicians not knowing when to call it a game. Huckabee wasn't dividing his party, or being nearly as critical of McCain as Hilary is being of Obama. If Huckabee was causing more trouble, the calls for him to leave would've been louder.

This is really an issue about a guy complaining on a message board that his favorite candidate is having a difficult path, despite the system being exactly what it is. If it's really as obvious as you say it is, then we wouldn't have even needed a primary in Pennsylvania. Stop throwing a fit about a close race.And I'd really like to know what sets you apart from a Democrat. You are an independent? How? You drink up everything Obama says, which is right from a "how to be a Democrat" rulebook.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

Listen guys, it is this simple:

slim delegate lead + slim popular vote lead + losing certain important swing states + Florida + possibly alieanating whites, Jews and Hispanics + Rev. Wright + neither candidate able to acquire enough pledged delegates to secure nomination = realistic chance the supers give the nomination to Hillary.

A month or so ago I would have considered this impossible that the supers would risk pissing off black voters like this. But some of the recent stuff that has come out may give them the excuse they are looking for (if they are looking for one) to hand the nomination to Hillary.

It ain't over.

Slim delegate lead? Methinks not with a >100 lead.Slim popular vote lead? Methinks not, with a >700,000 vote lead

Losing important swing states? Yeah, to another democrat, very similar to Obama. Would those who voted for Hillary really not vote for Obama and go further away from their platforms and vote for McCain? Methinks not.

Rev Wright issue has not negatively affected him, as tested and shown by numerous polls. If anything, he's gained support from how he handled it. An issue? Methinks not.

Me also thinks that alienating whites, Jews and Hispanics a bunch of bull.

These elections, barring unforeseen calamity, are simply a process of confirming what we already know:

Obama will end with significantly more delegates, states won, and popular votes than Hillary. It's over, Hillary just doesn't know it yet.

I'm on your side. I'm just saying there is a lot of mud in the waters these days, and enough that could give the supers an excuse to give it to Hillary. Maybe not a good one, but an excuse nonetheless.

I think so too. I'm acting more confident than I actually am about the outcome. Anything can happen, and likely will. Every time Hillary has been counted out, she comes back strong. Could happen today.Actually, I'm guessing an 8-12% win by her today, and I think that'll be enough for her to stay in it, unfortunately. She's thrown so much at Obama these past few weeks that it's surprising he's so close.

But yeah, she's muddying the waters every way she can, and odds are, it will remain murky for some time. I rely simply on the math, and that says she's out of this thing, but my gut tells me it'll be a long ways yet until we can relax.

But, that's the problem. The math isn't against her. Both of them need the supers.

Math relies on assumptions. Assumptions state that if Obama maintains his lead in pledged delegates, popular vote, and states won, that the super delegates will not overturn the will of the people, considering both candidates are electable. Even Hillary has agreed that Obama could beat McCain, so that effectively negates any chance the super delegates would go against the will of the people.So the math, with the assumptions in place, state that even with liberal margins of victory for hillary (within reason) that she would still do very little to catch up to his delegaet lead, his popular vote lead, and his state lead. Therefore, the math seems to show that she's out of it.

What can she do to win this? Assuming, as the numbers clearly show, that she'll be down significantly in every major category when this thing ends, what can she do to convince the super delegates to vote for her? She would have to say, yes, he's electable, yes he's won more votes, yes he's won more states, yes he has hundreds of thousands of more votes than me, BUT, still, in spite of the votes, in spite of the numbers...in spite of the fact that I said he could win, you should still vote for me. Not gonna happen short of major scandal involving Obama.

Rather than making assumptions, why not just let it play out, let everyone vote, then whoever wins has earned it.. Neither candidate has reached or will reach the magical delegate number, so why shut it down?

The reasons for shutting it down early are clear.It's divisive, people are tiring of it, more time goes by, more attacks fly, reduces time for party to get behind one candidate, more money is being wasted on the primary when it's basically a done deal, McCain is running his PR basically unopposed, raising money for the general election is going to be delayed...

The list goes on, but people are ignoring it. Even when they know the odds against hitting the lottery are millions to one, people still buy tickets. That's what's going on here. It's silly, especially considering the stakes.

So change the rules next time to shorten the primary season for the party. Or don't have a primary.

 

[Spiderman]

You guys sound like huckabee. Did y'all major in miracles and not math too?

This crap is always what gives me the giggles with democrats.There is a number of delegates that they have to hit to win the nomination. Can he get there without the supers? Can she?Basically, the Obama camp is of the collective opinion that no matter the rules, laws, policies or processes in place, when they want something really bad, they should just be allowed to do it, everyone should accept it and get out of the way, and the world would be a better place.Isn't that close to what you all say you hate about the current guy?

Umm, first, I'm an independent.Secondly, the republicans did it too with huckabee staying in despite the "math" saying he wouldn't win it. He replied that he majored in miracles in college, not math. He lost. Other republicans urged him to drop out.This isn't a republican/democrat issue. It's an issue of politicians not knowing when to call it a game. Huckabee wasn't dividing his party, or being nearly as critical of McCain as Hilary is being of Obama. If Huckabee was causing more trouble, the calls for him to leave would've been louder.

Isn't there a big difference between the Huckabee-McCain race vs. the Obama-Clinton race starting with the fact that McCain was as close to being a lock to win as you can be ? Huckabee was a minor annoyance because he kept appearing on every show that would have him, but Clinton is in a whole different league. Obama has this in the bag as well as long, but I can't blame Hillary for staying in the race until June. Now, if she drags this out until August when she has nothing to stand on, then she should be seen as selfish. I'm already seeing how this is playing out though. My favorite, Chris Matthews, said that Hillary needs to drop out if she doesn't win by at least 7 points. That's what we're going to hear from other pundits as well. She'd better find a 10 point win tonight.

 

[adonis]

Listen guys, it is this simple:

slim delegate lead + slim popular vote lead + losing certain important swing states + Florida + possibly alieanating whites, Jews and Hispanics + Rev. Wright + neither candidate able to acquire enough pledged delegates to secure nomination = realistic chance the supers give the nomination to Hillary.

A month or so ago I would have considered this impossible that the supers would risk pissing off black voters like this. But some of the recent stuff that has come out may give them the excuse they are looking for (if they are looking for one) to hand the nomination to Hillary.

It ain't over.

Slim delegate lead? Methinks not with a >100 lead.Slim popular vote lead? Methinks not, with a >700,000 vote lead

Losing important swing states? Yeah, to another democrat, very similar to Obama. Would those who voted for Hillary really not vote for Obama and go further away from their platforms and vote for McCain? Methinks not.

Rev Wright issue has not negatively affected him, as tested and shown by numerous polls. If anything, he's gained support from how he handled it. An issue? Methinks not.

Me also thinks that alienating whites, Jews and Hispanics a bunch of bull.

These elections, barring unforeseen calamity, are simply a process of confirming what we already know:

Obama will end with significantly more delegates, states won, and popular votes than Hillary. It's over, Hillary just doesn't know it yet.

I'm on your side. I'm just saying there is a lot of mud in the waters these days, and enough that could give the supers an excuse to give it to Hillary. Maybe not a good one, but an excuse nonetheless.

I think so too. I'm acting more confident than I actually am about the outcome. Anything can happen, and likely will. Every time Hillary has been counted out, she comes back strong. Could happen today.Actually, I'm guessing an 8-12% win by her today, and I think that'll be enough for her to stay in it, unfortunately. She's thrown so much at Obama these past few weeks that it's surprising he's so close.

But yeah, she's muddying the waters every way she can, and odds are, it will remain murky for some time. I rely simply on the math, and that says she's out of this thing, but my gut tells me it'll be a long ways yet until we can relax.

But, that's the problem. The math isn't against her. Both of them need the supers.

Math relies on assumptions. Assumptions state that if Obama maintains his lead in pledged delegates, popular vote, and states won, that the super delegates will not overturn the will of the people, considering both candidates are electable. Even Hillary has agreed that Obama could beat McCain, so that effectively negates any chance the super delegates would go against the will of the people.So the math, with the assumptions in place, state that even with liberal margins of victory for hillary (within reason) that she would still do very little to catch up to his delegaet lead, his popular vote lead, and his state lead. Therefore, the math seems to show that she's out of it.

What can she do to win this? Assuming, as the numbers clearly show, that she'll be down significantly in every major category when this thing ends, what can she do to convince the super delegates to vote for her? She would have to say, yes, he's electable, yes he's won more votes, yes he's won more states, yes he has hundreds of thousands of more votes than me, BUT, still, in spite of the votes, in spite of the numbers...in spite of the fact that I said he could win, you should still vote for me. Not gonna happen short of major scandal involving Obama.

Rather than making assumptions, why not just let it play out, let everyone vote, then whoever wins has earned it.. Neither candidate has reached or will reach the magical delegate number, so why shut it down?

The reasons for shutting it down early are clear.It's divisive, people are tiring of it, more time goes by, more attacks fly, reduces time for party to get behind one candidate, more money is being wasted on the primary when it's basically a done deal, McCain is running his PR basically unopposed, raising money for the general election is going to be delayed...

The list goes on, but people are ignoring it. Even when they know the odds against hitting the lottery are millions to one, people still buy tickets. That's what's going on here. It's silly, especially considering the stakes.

So change the rules next time to shorten the primary season for the party. Or don't have a primary.

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules and saying they need to be changed in order to have applicability in this case is pointless.However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

 

[adonis]

Isn't there a big difference between the Huckabee-McCain race vs. the Obama-Clinton race starting with the fact that McCain was as close to being a lock to win as you can be ? Huckabee was a minor annoyance because he kept appearing on every show that would have him, but Clinton is in a whole different league. Obama has this in the bag as well as long, but I can't blame Hillary for staying in the race until June. Now, if she drags this out until August when she has nothing to stand on, then she should be seen as selfish. I'm already seeing how this is playing out though. My favorite, Chris Matthews, said that Hillary needs to drop out if she doesn't win by at least 7 points. That's what we're going to hear from other pundits as well. She'd better find a 10 point win tonight.

Sure there are differences, but the similarity is that both of them were mathematically said to not stand a chance of winning. Sure, the assumptions behind the math are different, but both stayed in past the time they were really practically eliminated from having a chance to win.Huckabee was no threat to the general election viability, but I think continuing the race between Hillary and Obama makes it a threat the longer it goes on. Supers can end this thing now, they should.

 

[Spiderman]

You guys sound like huckabee. Did y'all major in miracles and not math too?

This crap is always what gives me the giggles with democrats.There is a number of delegates that they have to hit to win the nomination. Can he get there without the supers? Can she?Basically, the Obama camp is of the collective opinion that no matter the rules, laws, policies or processes in place, when they want something really bad, they should just be allowed to do it, everyone should accept it and get out of the way, and the world would be a better place.Isn't that close to what you all say you hate about the current guy?

Umm, first, I'm an independent.Secondly, the republicans did it too with huckabee staying in despite the "math" saying he wouldn't win it. He replied that he majored in miracles in college, not math. He lost. Other republicans urged him to drop out.This isn't a republican/democrat issue. It's an issue of politicians not knowing when to call it a game. Huckabee wasn't dividing his party, or being nearly as critical of McCain as Hilary is being of Obama. If Huckabee was causing more trouble, the calls for him to leave would've been louder.

This is really an issue about a guy complaining on a message board that his favorite candidate is having a difficult path, despite the system being exactly what it is. If it's really as obvious as you say it is, then we wouldn't have even needed a primary in Pennsylvania. Stop throwing a fit about a close race.And I'd really like to know what sets you apart from a Democrat. You are an independent? How? You drink up everything Obama says, which is right from a "how to be a Democrat" rulebook.

I think Obama supporters like to give the impression that they are following his lead, being more interested in change and hope and being above the political fighting. That way, they can around having to discuss his political believes or his controversial preacher, etc. In reality, Obama is a left wing Democrat who has no history of being anything other than that, and people are fooling themselves by thinking he's going to get conservatives to buy into his left wing agenda.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules is pointless.However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

Why is it that giving him the votes is best for the party. Here is a guy that was going against the most hated politician in America after George Bush. She has no upside, only negatives. There is a massive movement of people begging for her to leave, and there are media members the world over drooling over him.And with all that going for him, he can't close the deal. In fact, he can't close the deal without - here is the comedic irony - the help of those very same Washington insiders who he claims he will have no allegiance to at all. But, he couldn't do it on his own. Doesn't bode well for the general.

 

[aardball44]

What kind of a name for an extremist group is Weather Underground, anyway? The image of a band or rogue climatologists wielding barometers strikes fear into the hearts of no one.

Those thermometers have mercury in them. MERCURY!!! :mercury=SPEED:

 

[Orange Crush]

Ok, yes, many of Obama's supporters are looking at the math and are calling for Clinton to drop out for the good of the party, even though he has not yet earned the required number of delegates to clinch the nomination. However, they aren't urging the rules to be broken. Just for the other candidate to give in to the inevitable.

Clinton, on the other hand, has outright called for the rules not to count.

- Michigan and Florida should count, even though they broke party rules and she agreed that they shouldn't count beforehand.

- She complains about caucuses and that they shouldn't count, even though she had just as much an opportunity to review the rules of each state and create an organization that would allow her to compete in them.

- She complains that small states shouldn't count, and then uses "disenfranchisement" as an argument in favor of MI and FL? Please.

- She complains that red states shouldn't count, since the Democrats in those states have no chance to help decide the outcome in November. We already talked about the "disenfranchisement" argument of hers, right?

- She has tried to get pledged delegates to change sides!!! Talk about usurping the democratic principles behind the entire process!

Her campaign has been incompetent, and then when it's gotten her in trouble she has tried to change the rules of the game.

 

[Spiderman]

Isn't there a big difference between the Huckabee-McCain race vs. the Obama-Clinton race starting with the fact that McCain was as close to being a lock to win as you can be ? Huckabee was a minor annoyance because he kept appearing on every show that would have him, but Clinton is in a whole different league. Obama has this in the bag as well as long, but I can't blame Hillary for staying in the race until June. Now, if she drags this out until August when she has nothing to stand on, then she should be seen as selfish. I'm already seeing how this is playing out though. My favorite, Chris Matthews, said that Hillary needs to drop out if she doesn't win by at least 7 points. That's what we're going to hear from other pundits as well. She'd better find a 10 point win tonight.

Sure there are differences, but the similarity is that both of them were mathematically said to not stand a chance of winning. Sure, the assumptions behind the math are different, but both stayed in past the time they were really practically eliminated from having a chance to win.Huckabee was no threat to the general election viability, but I think continuing the race between Hillary and Obama makes it a threat the longer it goes on. Supers can end this thing now, they should.

Huckabee was completely buried. I often thought the only reason he was staying in the race was just in case McCain died. Hillary is on life support, and in her case, given that she has been the perceived front runner from the beginning, why not stay in until June ? Do you believe that this will ruin Obama's chances in November ?Supers aren't going to end this right now because they are probably enjoying the ### kissing they are receiving from both camps, and their self-importance.

 

[Tigran Petrosian]

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules is pointless.However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

Why is it that giving him the votes is best for the party. Here is a guy that was going against the most hated politician in America after George Bush. She has no upside, only negatives. There is a massive movement of people begging for her to leave, and there are media members the world over drooling over him.And with all that going for him, he can't close the deal. In fact, he can't close the deal without - here is the comedic irony - the help of those very same Washington insiders who he claims he will have no allegiance to at all. But, he couldn't do it on his own. Doesn't bode well for the general.

See you in November, slick.

 

[SwampDawg]

Voted Democrat for the first time in my life today, Voted for Barak...I believe.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

Her campaign has been incompetent, and then when it's gotten her in trouble she has tried to change the rules of the game.

See, and when we said this about the Clintons about a decade or so ago it was a vast right wing conspiracy.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules is pointless.However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

Why is it that giving him the votes is best for the party. Here is a guy that was going against the most hated politician in America after George Bush. She has no upside, only negatives. There is a massive movement of people begging for her to leave, and there are media members the world over drooling over him.And with all that going for him, he can't close the deal. In fact, he can't close the deal without - here is the comedic irony - the help of those very same Washington insiders who he claims he will have no allegiance to at all. But, he couldn't do it on his own. Doesn't bode well for the general.

See you in November, slick.

 

[Tigran Petrosian]

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules is pointless.However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

Why is it that giving him the votes is best for the party. Here is a guy that was going against the most hated politician in America after George Bush. She has no upside, only negatives. There is a massive movement of people begging for her to leave, and there are media members the world over drooling over him.And with all that going for him, he can't close the deal. In fact, he can't close the deal without - here is the comedic irony - the help of those very same Washington insiders who he claims he will have no allegiance to at all. But, he couldn't do it on his own. Doesn't bode well for the general.

See you in November, slick.

Yes, we know.

 

[Orange Crush]

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules is pointless.

However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

Why is it that giving him the votes is best for the party. Here is a guy that was going against the most hated politician in America after George Bush. She has no upside, only negatives. There is a massive movement of people begging for her to leave, and there are media members the world over drooling over him.And with all that going for him, he can't close the deal. In fact, he can't close the deal without - here is the comedic irony - the help of those very same Washington insiders who he claims he will have no allegiance to at all. But, he couldn't do it on his own. Doesn't bode well for the general.

Hillary has two big upsides :1- she's a woman. And women are 60% of the Democratic voters. I've had uncountable conversations with women supporters of Hillary who back her for that sole reason.

2- her husband is the most popular Democratic president of the last fifty years. A few months ago I saw a poll that showed half of Hillary's support was really for Bill (usurping the 22nd Amendment [Edit: Ok, not literally, but the reasoning for it]).

 

[Hammered Finz]

Listen guys, it is this simple:

slim delegate lead + slim popular vote lead + losing certain important swing states + Florida + possibly alieanating whites, Jews and Hispanics + Rev. Wright + neither candidate able to acquire enough pledged delegates to secure nomination = realistic chance the supers give the nomination to Hillary.

A month or so ago I would have considered this impossible that the supers would risk pissing off black voters like this. But some of the recent stuff that has come out may give them the excuse they are looking for (if they are looking for one) to hand the nomination to Hillary.

It ain't over.

Slim delegate lead? Methinks not with a >100 lead.Slim popular vote lead? Methinks not, with a >700,000 vote lead

Losing important swing states? Yeah, to another democrat, very similar to Obama. Would those who voted for Hillary really not vote for Obama and go further away from their platforms and vote for McCain? Methinks not.

Rev Wright issue has not negatively affected him, as tested and shown by numerous polls. If anything, he's gained support from how he handled it. An issue? Methinks not.

Me also thinks that alienating whites, Jews and Hispanics a bunch of bull.

These elections, barring unforeseen calamity, are simply a process of confirming what we already know:

Obama will end with significantly more delegates, states won, and popular votes than Hillary. It's over, Hillary just doesn't know it yet.

I'm on your side. I'm just saying there is a lot of mud in the waters these days, and enough that could give the supers an excuse to give it to Hillary. Maybe not a good one, but an excuse nonetheless.

I think so too. I'm acting more confident than I actually am about the outcome. Anything can happen, and likely will. Every time Hillary has been counted out, she comes back strong. Could happen today.Actually, I'm guessing an 8-12% win by her today, and I think that'll be enough for her to stay in it, unfortunately. She's thrown so much at Obama these past few weeks that it's surprising he's so close.

But yeah, she's muddying the waters every way she can, and odds are, it will remain murky for some time. I rely simply on the math, and that says she's out of this thing, but my gut tells me it'll be a long ways yet until we can relax.

But, that's the problem. The math isn't against her. Both of them need the supers.

Math relies on assumptions. Assumptions state that if Obama maintains his lead in pledged delegates, popular vote, and states won, that the super delegates will not overturn the will of the people, considering both candidates are electable. Even Hillary has agreed that Obama could beat McCain, so that effectively negates any chance the super delegates would go against the will of the people.So the math, with the assumptions in place, state that even with liberal margins of victory for hillary (within reason) that she would still do very little to catch up to his delegaet lead, his popular vote lead, and his state lead. Therefore, the math seems to show that she's out of it.

What can she do to win this? Assuming, as the numbers clearly show, that she'll be down significantly in every major category when this thing ends, what can she do to convince the super delegates to vote for her? She would have to say, yes, he's electable, yes he's won more votes, yes he's won more states, yes he has hundreds of thousands of more votes than me, BUT, still, in spite of the votes, in spite of the numbers...in spite of the fact that I said he could win, you should still vote for me. Not gonna happen short of major scandal involving Obama.

Rather than making assumptions, why not just let it play out, let everyone vote, then whoever wins has earned it.. Neither candidate has reached or will reach the magical delegate number, so why shut it down?

The reasons for shutting it down early are clear.It's divisive, people are tiring of it, more time goes by, more attacks fly, reduces time for party to get behind one candidate, more money is being wasted on the primary when it's basically a done deal, McCain is running his PR basically unopposed, raising money for the general election is going to be delayed...

The list goes on, but people are ignoring it. Even when they know the odds against hitting the lottery are millions to one, people still buy tickets. That's what's going on here. It's silly, especially considering the stakes.

But neither candidate has the required delegates.. you are saying we should bend the rules because it is divisive? It's politics!!

 

[Yankee23Fan]

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules is pointless.However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

Why is it that giving him the votes is best for the party. Here is a guy that was going against the most hated politician in America after George Bush. She has no upside, only negatives. There is a massive movement of people begging for her to leave, and there are media members the world over drooling over him.And with all that going for him, he can't close the deal. In fact, he can't close the deal without - here is the comedic irony - the help of those very same Washington insiders who he claims he will have no allegiance to at all. But, he couldn't do it on his own. Doesn't bode well for the general.

See you in November, slick.

Yes, we know.

Oh, I'm sorry. You thought you were making some kind of a good point... Carry on.

 

[adonis]

But neither candidate has the required delegates.. you are saying we should bend the rules because it is divisive? It's politics!!

The rules won't be bent if the supers decide to end it now. It's well within the rules for them to make their decision now, in the interest of the party. They're not required to wait.

 

[Spiderman]

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules is pointless.

However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

Why is it that giving him the votes is best for the party. Here is a guy that was going against the most hated politician in America after George Bush. She has no upside, only negatives. There is a massive movement of people begging for her to leave, and there are media members the world over drooling over him.And with all that going for him, he can't close the deal. In fact, he can't close the deal without - here is the comedic irony - the help of those very same Washington insiders who he claims he will have no allegiance to at all. But, he couldn't do it on his own. Doesn't bode well for the general.

Hillary has two big upsides :1- she's a woman. And women are 60% of the Democratic voters. I've had uncountable conversations with women supporters of Hillary who back her for that sole reason.

2- her husband is the most popular Democratic president of the last fifty years. A few months ago I saw a poll that showed half of Hillary's support was really for Bill (usurping the 22nd Amendment [Edit: Ok, not literally, but the reasoning for it]).

How many voters are voting for Obama because he's an African American and/or a rock star (explaining the younger vote)?

 

[CBusAlex]

And again, your argument is that you guys want it real bad and of course you are right and they are wrong so just give us what we want even though the rules and laws say otherwise.

Yankee23Fan: Your assignment, should you choose to accept it, is to read through the last 20 pages of this thread (other people's posts too, not just your own) until you find a reason given other than "you guys want it real bad" for Hillary to drop out of the race.Report back when you are ready to stop intentionally misrepresenting everyone's position.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

And again, your argument is that you guys want it real bad and of course you are right and they are wrong so just give us what we want even though the rules and laws say otherwise.

Yankee23Fan: Your assignment, should you choose to accept it, is to read through the last 20 pages of this thread (other people's posts too, not just your own) until you find a reason given other than "you guys want it real bad" for Hillary to drop out of the race.Report back when you are ready to stop intentionally misrepresenting everyone's position.

How is it a misrepresentation? You want her out so you can focus on McCain. It's good for the party. It's better for the general. And so on. You want to win the end game. In fact, you want "it real bad."

 

[Tigran Petrosian]

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules is pointless.However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

Why is it that giving him the votes is best for the party. Here is a guy that was going against the most hated politician in America after George Bush. She has no upside, only negatives. There is a massive movement of people begging for her to leave, and there are media members the world over drooling over him.And with all that going for him, he can't close the deal. In fact, he can't close the deal without - here is the comedic irony - the help of those very same Washington insiders who he claims he will have no allegiance to at all. But, he couldn't do it on his own. Doesn't bode well for the general.

See you in November, slick.

Yes, we know.

Oh, I'm sorry. You thought you were making some kind of a good point... Carry on.

Just being the echo chamber in here.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules is pointless.However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

Why is it that giving him the votes is best for the party. Here is a guy that was going against the most hated politician in America after George Bush. She has no upside, only negatives. There is a massive movement of people begging for her to leave, and there are media members the world over drooling over him.And with all that going for him, he can't close the deal. In fact, he can't close the deal without - here is the comedic irony - the help of those very same Washington insiders who he claims he will have no allegiance to at all. But, he couldn't do it on his own. Doesn't bode well for the general.

See you in November, slick.

Yes, we know.

Oh, I'm sorry. You thought you were making some kind of a good point... Carry on.

Just being the echo chamber in here.

Oh, I'm sorry. You thought you were making some kind of a good point... Carry on.

 

[adonis]

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules is pointless.However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

Why is it that giving him the votes is best for the party. Here is a guy that was going against the most hated politician in America after George Bush. She has no upside, only negatives. There is a massive movement of people begging for her to leave, and there are media members the world over drooling over him.And with all that going for him, he can't close the deal. In fact, he can't close the deal without - here is the comedic irony - the help of those very same Washington insiders who he claims he will have no allegiance to at all. But, he couldn't do it on his own. Doesn't bode well for the general.

He's a new face, a new name that's foreign, half black, half white, running for the presidency, and you're asking why he's encountering resistance? His success so far, in earning all of what he did, against Bill and HIllary Clinton, arguable two of the most powerful politicians of our time, is silly.He came out of nowhere, essentially, to take on the juggernaut of team Clinton. The network, the political machine, the name recognition, the correlation to the 8 years of her husbands term...i mean, it is almost as if Bill was running again, only in a female's body with much less charisma or likability. For him to be where he is today speaks to his strengths, and republicans should watch out when he gets the full force of the dems behind him. Try to downplay him now, while you can .

 

[Hammered Finz]

But neither candidate has the required delegates.. you are saying we should bend the rules because it is divisive? It's politics!!

The rules won't be bent if the supers decide to end it now. It's well within the rules for them to make their decision now, in the interest of the party. They're not required to wait.

perhaps they know better than us? Maybe the braintrust of the Dem party DOES worry about Obama? Maybe they are considering Hillary? Again, we don;t know what they do, and I believe they haven't voted yet for a reason...

 

[Josie Maran]

You guys sound like huckabee. Did y'all major in miracles and not math too?

This crap is always what gives me the giggles with democrats.There is a number of delegates that they have to hit to win the nomination. Can he get there without the supers? Can she?Basically, the Obama camp is of the collective opinion that no matter the rules, laws, policies or processes in place, when they want something really bad, they should just be allowed to do it, everyone should accept it and get out of the way, and the world would be a better place.Isn't that close to what you all say you hate about the current guy?

Umm, first, I'm an independent.Secondly, the republicans did it too with huckabee staying in despite the "math" saying he wouldn't win it. He replied that he majored in miracles in college, not math. He lost. Other republicans urged him to drop out.This isn't a republican/democrat issue. It's an issue of politicians not knowing when to call it a game. Huckabee wasn't dividing his party, or being nearly as critical of McCain as Hilary is being of Obama. If Huckabee was causing more trouble, the calls for him to leave would've been louder.

Huckabee didn't drop out until McCain had the required number of delegates. If that is your measuring stick, then, well, the democrats should do the same.And again, your argument is that you guys want it real bad and of course you are right and they are wrong so just give us what we want even though the rules and laws say otherwise.

Are you fishing or being intentionally obtuse?

 

[Yankee23Fan]

No one is saying the rules require a quick finish. No One. Referring to the rules is pointless.However, the supers should do what's best for the party, and considering the points I've laid out, it seems like the best choice for the party would be to back Obama, now, end this thing. That's well within the rules, and it'd be the intelligent thing to do.

Why is it that giving him the votes is best for the party. Here is a guy that was going against the most hated politician in America after George Bush. She has no upside, only negatives. There is a massive movement of people begging for her to leave, and there are media members the world over drooling over him.And with all that going for him, he can't close the deal. In fact, he can't close the deal without - here is the comedic irony - the help of those very same Washington insiders who he claims he will have no allegiance to at all. But, he couldn't do it on his own. Doesn't bode well for the general.

He's a new face, a new name that's foreign, half black, half white, running for the presidency, and you're asking why he's encountering resistance? His success so far, in earning all of what he did, against Bill and HIllary Clinton, arguable two of the most powerful politicians of our time, is silly.He came out of nowhere, essentially, to take on the juggernaut of team Clinton. The network, the political machine, the name recognition, the correlation to the 8 years of her husbands term...i mean, it is almost as if Bill was running again, only in a female's body with much less charisma or likability. For him to be where he is today speaks to his strengths, and republicans should watch out when he gets the full force of the dems behind him. Try to downplay him now, while you can .

I really get it. You would be his Jenna Jamison if he wanted. Got it.Doesn't change the fact that with all that, he can't close the deal. New is good. But new the point of failure isn't. Ask New Coke.I'm not downplaying him. I am amazed at the democratic arguments here. Well, not really amazed..

 

[commisholio]

The main difference between Huckabee and Clinton is that Huckabee campaigned posivtively rather than trying to knee-cap McCain as a candidate. I don't think anyone would begrudge Clinton the right to stay in the campaign if she would be a little bit more careful in the way she frames her criticisms. Lately she has adopted slimy campaign tactics designed solely to increase Obama's negatives. Huckabee never did anything close to that to McCain.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

You guys sound like huckabee. Did y'all major in miracles and not math too?

This crap is always what gives me the giggles with democrats.There is a number of delegates that they have to hit to win the nomination. Can he get there without the supers? Can she?Basically, the Obama camp is of the collective opinion that no matter the rules, laws, policies or processes in place, when they want something really bad, they should just be allowed to do it, everyone should accept it and get out of the way, and the world would be a better place.Isn't that close to what you all say you hate about the current guy?

Umm, first, I'm an independent.Secondly, the republicans did it too with huckabee staying in despite the "math" saying he wouldn't win it. He replied that he majored in miracles in college, not math. He lost. Other republicans urged him to drop out.This isn't a republican/democrat issue. It's an issue of politicians not knowing when to call it a game. Huckabee wasn't dividing his party, or being nearly as critical of McCain as Hilary is being of Obama. If Huckabee was causing more trouble, the calls for him to leave would've been louder.

This is really an issue about a guy complaining on a message board that his favorite candidate is having a difficult path, despite the system being exactly what it is. If it's really as obvious as you say it is, then we wouldn't have even needed a primary in Pennsylvania. Stop throwing a fit about a close race.And I'd really like to know what sets you apart from a Democrat. You are an independent? How? You drink up everything Obama says, which is right from a "how to be a Democrat" rulebook.

I think Obama supporters like to give the impression that they are following his lead, being more interested in change and hope and being above the political fighting. That way, they can around having to discuss his political believes or his controversial preacher, etc. In reality, Obama is a left wing Democrat who has no history of being anything other than that, and people are fooling themselves by thinking he's going to get conservatives to buy into his left wing agenda.

This depends on what you mean by conservatives. The social conservatives won't vote for him and weren't going to vote for Clinton either. In fact if they vote for McCain it will be while holding their noses since they were primarily the ones flocking to Huckabee. There are plenty of self-described fiscal conservatives out there who are very much in play for Obama, and there are several examples on this board.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

The main difference between Huckabee and Clinton is that Huckabee campaigned posivtively rather than trying to knee-cap McCain as a candidate. I don't think anyone would begrudge Clinton the right to stay in the campaign if she would be a little bit more careful in the way she frames her criticisms. Lately she has adopted slimy campaign tactics designed solely to increase Obama's negatives. Huckabee never did anything close to that to McCain.

And one was a Christian, the other, Satan.