****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (18 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is true, but picks are still the most liquid asset in dynasty. The mental process you're describing cuts down on their liquidity, which is why they're less valuable. But in a vacuum, HSG is correct. You have the option to do things with picks. Maybe one of your league-mates really values Christian Watson with the 1.08 vs. Skyy Moore and is a Watson sucker. He'll gladly cough up something better than you would have gotten for the 1.08 and a chance to draft Watson. Liquidity is still in play, and you can extract value out of it. 

Exactly. Thank you for the eloquent example. 

 

[Jonesin For Some Football]

14 team PPR, start 1 QB, 1-4 RB, 2-4 WR, 1-2 TE, K, D

Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR

for

Stefon Diggs, WR, BUFF

2023 2nd Round Pick (mid to late)

This is light for CMC too but close enough.  I'd only consider this if that pick was a 1st and I felt it had a chance to be in the top half.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is absolutely terrible.  3 guys that wouldn't even be top 15 picks in next year's draft for someone with RB1 upside and only 25.  Wow.

Yep - the only thing that devalues CMC is “injury risk”. Based on his injuries, pretty much every player carries the same risk.

That CMC has had 2 straight years impacted by injury is recency bias at its finest.

I agree it’s terrible. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This is light for CMC too but close enough.  I'd only consider this if that pick was a 1st and I felt it had a chance to be in the top half.

That’s pretty much my take. Nothing to get feathers ruffled over, just not a deal I would accept. It’s a little light. Make that 2nd a 1st and now we’re talking. 

 

[Jonesin For Some Football]

Until they’re actually used, picks are picks.

How you continue to brush this aside as though it doesn’t effect the value is baffling. 

It’s is a false assertion that those 3 players are the same value as those 3 as-yet-to-be-made picks. 

it’s not even really debatable. For one, it is false to claim that we know who will be picked with them. For another, picks without names are far more tradable assets. 

I’m shocked we’re even having a discsussion about this. 

Yea, I don't get why that is even a discussion.  Picks are valuable because of what you can do with them.  Trade them, pick who you want, or BPA if those players fall there.  It is an obvious argument.

 

[titusbramble]

Until they’re actually used, picks are picks.

How you continue to brush this aside as though it doesn’t effect the value is baffling. 

It’s is a false assertion that those 3 players are the same value as those 3 as-yet-to-be-made picks.

True. The picks might actually be more valuable if someone makes a drafting error. But in most reasonable leagues you will have a fairly good idea who is going when, especially in the first couple of rounds.

I just think it's fairly valuable to understand, if not the exact player, roughly who you are going to get with any given pick. Tricky more than a year out, and it can change quickly especially around the time of the IRL draft (Malik 1.02 in SF but wait), but from a context standpoint I find it useful to think of something like give Pittman for 1.03 as "do I want to stick with Pittman, or get either KW3 or London (replace with your choice of favourite rookie WR)". Similar thing works at all levels, you need to at least have some idea of what the pick might become

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

True. The picks might actually be more valuable if someone makes a drafting error. But in most reasonable leagues you will have a fairly good idea who is going when, especially in the first couple of rounds.

I just think it's fairly valuable to understand, if not the exact player, roughly who you are going to get with any given pick. Tricky more than a year out, and it can change quickly especially around the time of the IRL draft (Malik 1.02 in SF but wait), but from a context standpoint I find it useful to think of something like give Pittman for 1.03 as "do I want to stick with Pittman, or get either KW3 or London (replace with your choice of favourite rookie WR)". Similar thing works at all levels, you need to at least have some idea of what the pick might become

I get what you’re saying, but I believe you’re fundamentally devaluing the picks when you make the assumption that we know who will be taken with them.

Why that matters so much is perfectly illustrated by @rockaction’s example.

A pick is never as valuable as when OTC, and others in the league see opportunity to obtain an asset - maybe it’s someone who fell, as you imply. Or maybe it’s simply a preference for X-Player. Whatever the reasoning, you’ll always get maximum value for that pick from the person who covets it in the heat of the moment. 

It’s for similar reason that it’s much easier to deal say, picks 1.10, 1.12 and 2.01 for a top 3 pick, as opposed to dealing the *3 players picked there* for anything. Like driving a car off a lot, the value drops the second the pick is made.

Now what was a liquid asset had solidified. Now it’s a player that some in the league might want, some might not, and some might only want at a certain price. As I’d mentioned earlier in this discussion, if someone came at me with Pickett, I’d have zero interest. So off the bat if I’m a CMC owner I reject that deal. But if someone comes at me with picks 1.10, 1.12 and 2.01, I still probably don’t make the deal (because I feel it’s light for CMC) but I’d probably counter to see if I could get pick 1.10, 2023 1st & 2nd instead. The conversation would continue because even though I don’t want that 1.10, I’m confident I can package it for something, or try to deal it while I’m on the clock when the value of that pick is highest.

Simply put, a pick has more potential in the eye of the beholder. It can be used for any position of interest (RB/WR/QB/TE), it can have a perceived value fall to it, or it can be traded to someone who feels strongly about the potential of those things.

But the car analogy applies - at the dealership, you can get any color / options combo you like. But once ya drive that car off the lot, those attributes are locked in, and now you’re selling a much more specific item. Not everyone wants a blue car with the smaller engine & dog dish wheel covers. I’m just sayin. 

It’s not a perfect analogy, but hopefully you get my meaning. 

 

[barackdhouse]

This is true, but picks are still the most liquid asset in dynasty. 

Yes, and should be valued higher, but they're not. Weirdly, the picks gain value once the pick is made. IMO it is a major market inefficiency that I love taking advantage of when/if I can. The ADP of rookie picks in startups before the NFL draft regularly show 1.01, 1.02, etc. as going later than startups where the corresponding player picks are made. It is the embodiment of rookie fever mathematically, because once the player is known, the implied value goes up (because of course they're going to be a hit, right?). But IMO it isn't just rookie fever driving that, it is risk aversion as well. We might have an idea of what 1.01-1.04 or so looks like in a given year, but the later the picks get the harder it is to know who will or won't be there. You can buy those numerical picks for much cheaper than the corresponding players, on average. It is a strange dynamic.

Until they’re actually used, picks are picks.

It’s is a false assertion that those 3 players are the same value as those 3 as-yet-to-be-made picks. 

100% I would *hate* to get stuck with those 3 players in particular. I don't mind Cook actually but anyway enough. I need to go make some CMC offers.

 

[menobrown]

RB1 upside and only 25

Just to clarify CMC is now 26 years old.

That may seem minimal but we are really getting into an every year counts range because you got to back 5 seasons to find a 27 year old or older RB who broke 250 PPR fantasy points, though David Johnson did come within 2 points of it 4 years ago.  Put another way you'd also need to go back 5 seasons to find a 27 year old or older RB who finished top 5 in total points and that was Ingram in 2017 who finished exactly 5th. Patterson who is an unusual guy has highest finish in last 4 seasons in total points as RB7.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Put another way you'd also need to go back 5 seasons to find a 27 year old or older RB who finished top 5 in total points and that was Ingram in 2017 who finished exactly 5th. Patterson who is an unusual guy has highest finish in last 4 seasons in total points as RB7.

a very good point. As an Ingram shareholder in 2017, he was definitely seen as flukey. I certainly didn’t expect too 5 production when I drafted him as my RB3. Also IIRC Payton benched him a couple times early in games, so it wasn’t a consistently awesome experience rostering him. 

Patterson also seems flukey - Ridley’s departure, shaky OL, & a number of other factors led to using him as a hybrid player to incredible results that absolutely no one saw coming.

Hard to predict those kinds of seasons.

That said, CMC at 26 seems like a somewhat more predictable asset, other than a recent injury history and a terrible QB (if their starting QB is even on the roster as of now).

I wouldn’t be shocked by a top 4 overall performance, and I also wouldn’t be shocked by him playing 11 games. He’s kind of a crap shoot. But that ceiling is what people will pay for, and I believe his value is still intact as a result.

 

[Marauder]

I get what you’re saying, but I believe you’re fundamentally devaluing the picks when you make the assumption that we know who will be taken with them.

Why that matters so much is perfectly illustrated by @rockaction’s example.

A pick is never as valuable as when OTC, and others in the league see opportunity to obtain an asset - maybe it’s someone who fell, as you imply. Or maybe it’s simply a preference for X-Player. Whatever the reasoning, you’ll always get maximum value for that pick from the person who covets it in the heat of the moment. 

It’s for similar reason that it’s much easier to deal say, picks 1.10, 1.12 and 2.01 for a top 3 pick, as opposed to dealing the *3 players picked there* for anything. Like driving a car off a lot, the value drops the second the pick is made.

Now what was a liquid asset had solidified. Now it’s a player that some in the league might want, some might not, and some might only want at a certain price. As I’d mentioned earlier in this discussion, if someone came at me with


Pickett


, I’d have zero interest. So off the bat if I’m a CMC owner I reject that deal. But if someone comes at me with picks 1.10, 1.12 and 2.01, I still probably don’t make the deal (because I feel it’s light for CMC) but I’d probably counter to see if I could get pick 1.10, 2023 1st & 2nd instead. The conversation would continue because even though I don’t want that 1.10, I’m confident I can package it for something, or try to deal it while I’m on the clock when the value of that pick is highest.

Simply put, a pick has more potential in the eye of the beholder. It can be used for any position of interest (RB/WR/QB/TE), it can have a perceived value fall to it, or it can be traded to someone who feels strongly about the potential of those things.

But the car analogy applies - at the dealership, you can get any color / options combo you like. But once ya drive that car off the lot, those attributes are locked in, and now you’re selling a much more specific item. Not everyone wants a blue car with the smaller engine & dog dish wheel covers. I’m just sayin. 

It’s not a perfect analogy, but hopefully you get my meaning. 

That's all correct as a general rule and I don't think anyone would argue with it.  However there are exceptions to all rules.  I remember last year during one of my rookie drafts somebody was trying to get my 1.08 pick.  I wasn't willing to sell it to him for what he was offering and he wasn't willing to give me what I wanted so I stayed there and made my pick.  Obviously I took the guy he wanted because he came back and offered me what I was originally asking for the player.  I rejected it saying "now that he's on my team he'll cost you more" and I got significantly more for the player than he had been willing to pay for the pick. That's because prior to me picking him there was a chance that player would fall further and he could be had cheaper.  It's actually not unusual for player values to increase higher than the pick they were used for after rookie drafts are complete.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That's all correct as a general rule and I don't think anyone would argue with it.  However there are exceptions to all rules.  I remember last year during one of my rookie drafts somebody was trying to get my 1.08 pick.  I wasn't willing to sell it to him for what he was offering and he wasn't willing to give me what I wanted so I stayed there and made my pick.  Obviously I took the guy he wanted because he came back and offered me what I was originally asking for the player.  I rejected it saying "now that he's on my team he'll cost you more" and I got significantly more for the player than he had been willing to pay for the pick. That's because prior to me picking him there was a chance that player would fall further and he could be had cheaper.  It's actually not unusual for player values to increase higher than the pick they were used for after rookie drafts are complete.

Oh sure - I agree. Totally possible. The “downside” of gambling on waiting to deal the pick is you have to draft a player if no one is interested.

2021 was seemingly a much better draft to get “stuck” with making the pick than 2022 projects to be.

But you’re right - by taking the player your trade partner wanted you easily strong-armed him into extracting more value. 

But what if you didn’t take the player that person wanted? Did he tell you “I want to get 1.08 so I can take so-and-so”? If so, he tipped his hand, and put himself into a position of weakness. 

If not, there was a possibility that you guessed wrong.

Anyway, you’re right - nothing is absolute. But in terms of player value vs picks value, in general gimme the picks. And especially when we’re taking about 3 players. Every player you add to the mix has their own +/- built in (in terms of desirability, positional need, etc for the prospective trade partner) But 3 picks are neutral in that regard. 

i think we’re on the same page. Interesting discussion. Maybe better suited to the dynasty value topic. 

 

[menobrown]

That said, CMC at 26 seems like a somewhat more predictable asset,

 I have him in contention as 1.1 this year, never get a draft pick high enough to decide. Just stay healthy and he's can't miss.

My post was a long way of saying that in very recent history Rb's seem to be falling off when they hit their age 27 season , if not before, so  him being 26 and not 25 is not such a small thing.

And @Joe Bryant this is why I've been asking for over a year to please put back the date of birth on player ages on their home pages. If you just checked age a few days ago you'd see CMC was 25, Kamara and Cook 26 but all of them will be 26-27 when the season starts. You probably think I'm splitting hairs but I just don' feel that way, to me it's not a minor deal when you are tacking an extra year on a 25-26 year old RB's age, the window here is to small most of the time to act like that year does not matter, at least to me. Obviously I can and do google this info,  but it used to be available here and has been replaced by age instead of DOB and I'm just saying that's inferior info.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

And @Joe Bryant this is why I've been asking for over a year to please put back the date of birth on player ages on their home pages. If you just checked age a few days ago you'd see CMC was 25, Kamara and Cook 26 but all of them will be 26-27 when the season starts. You probably think I'm splitting hairs but I just don' feel that way, to me it's not a minor deal when you are tacking an extra year on a 25-26 year old RB's age, the window here is to small most of the time to act like that year does not matter, at least to me. Obviously I can and do google this info,  but it used to be available here and has been replaced by age instead of DOB and I'm just saying that's inferior info.

i don’t think it’s splitting hairs at all. I religiously google birthdays when making dynasty trades.  Being 25 is not the same as “headed into the 26 y/o season”. 

It would be extremely useful to have this on the player pages. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

 I have him in contention as 1.1 this year, never get a draft pick high enough to decide. Just stay healthy and he's can't miss.

My post was a long way of saying that in very recent history Rb's seem to be falling off when they hit their age 27 season , if not before, so  him being 26 and not 25 is not such a small thing.

And @Joe Bryant this is why I've been asking for over a year to please put back the date of birth on player ages on their home pages. If you just checked age a few days ago you'd see CMC was 25, Kamara and Cook 26 but all of them will be 26-27 when the season starts. You probably think I'm splitting hairs but I just don' feel that way, to me it's not a minor deal when you are tacking an extra year on a 25-26 year old RB's age, the window here is to small most of the time to act like that year does not matter, at least to me. Obviously I can and do google this info,  but it used to be available here and has been replaced by age instead of DOB and I'm just saying that's inferior info.

Thanks. I can see how both age and DOB would be nice. Its on the list of things to look at adding but it's honestly behind some other critical projects like getting Draft Dominator ready and other Dynasty features. Thanks. 

 

[menobrown]

Thanks. I can see how both age and DOB would be nice. Its on the list of things to look at adding but it's honestly behind some other critical projects like getting Draft Dominator ready and other Dynasty features. Thanks. 

Thanks for responding and I’d just add we’d not need age if we had DOB and fwiw I do consider this to be a dynasty feature, a key tool at minimum.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks for responding and I’d just add we’d not need age if we had DOB and fwiw I do consider this to be a dynasty feature, a key tool at minimum.

Thanks. If we don't have age, people will want it. That's just how my life works. I think the answer is doing both if we're able to get to it. It's behind higher urgency projects but we'll take a look there. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

If there's one thing I've learned over the years, it's I never know how much time something takes...

Check out the player pages. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If there's one thing I've learned over the years, it's I never know how much time something takes...

Check out the player pages. 

 

[mcintyre1]

If I view myself as a top 3 team I’m giving that up easily for Kupp. 
 

I guess it’s fine if you’re rebuilding, but I’d want more. 

Interesting - I get Kupp is older but just seems like he should command more.

Definitely Kupp...he is a legit stud and while Smith is a good one, I don't see him blowing up playing with Hurts as his QB and AJ Brown in the fold...I really dislike the other pieces of this deal...that second piece needed to be a lot better to give up Kupp...the team getting Kupp just improved in a big way without harming their current roster or giving up a first-round pick...nowhere enough upside in this deal to be giving up Kupp.

I'm not high on Smith so I think this goes to Kupp easily but get the other side if you are a Smith believer.  I don't see how you trade Kupp after the season he just had and not get at least 1 first though.

I just took over this team and they had the 1.01 this past season, but I think I'm pretty well situated to bounce back a lot better than that for next year. The big weakness is at QB (only have Kyler and Mayfield in SF) and WR, but I've got some RB pieces (Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, JK Dobbins, Breece Hall)  I can either keep or move to improve the other areas, while I've got a bunch of IDP studs at DL and LB (Bosa, Garrett, Hutchinson at DL, TJ Watt, Devin White and a bunch of guys like Queen, Jamin Davis at LB).

I had zero interest in Kupp but it just seemed like too good of a deal to pass up, even while rebuilding somewhat.

 

[Dez]

16 team PPR TE 1.5 IDP league.  I get Thomas value has fallen but good lord.

Michael Thomas

for

Chris Evans

Devin Duvernay

 

[menobrown]

16 team PPR TE 1.5 IDP league.  I get Thomas value has fallen but good lord.

Michael Thomas

for

Chris Evans

Devin Duvernay

As you said in the bolded

 

[Boston]

16 team PPR TE 1.5 IDP league.  I get Thomas value has fallen but good lord.

Michael Thomas

for

Chris Evans

Devin Duvernay

 One of the worst trades I have ever seen.

 

[Joe Bryant]

If there's one thing I've learned over the years, it's I never know how much time something takes...

Check out the player pages. 

Were you able to see this @menobrown?

 

[menobrown]

Were you able to see this @menobrown?

No not till now, many thanks.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

Michael Thomas

for

Chris Evans

Devin Duvernay

I like the other Mike Thomas as much as the next guy, but no way am I parting with Duvernay and Evans to get him on my taxi squad.

 

[The Future Champs]

16 team PPR TE 1.5 IDP league.  I get Thomas value has fallen but good lord.

Michael Thomas

for

Chris Evans

Devin Duvernay

I'm not trying to buy Thomas anywhere, but I'd smash accept that offer.

 

[DropKick]

It's a fair trade.   In fact, every trade calc I looked at (and Hindery's value chart) show it in favor of the rookies.  Obviously if you don't like these three particular players you wouldn't make the deal but based on their ADP's a lot of people do like those players.  If the guy trading away McCaffrey does like those three rookies then there's absolutely nothing wrong with the trade.

Maybe trade calculators need more intelligence?   In general, I'll take the elite player over three replaceable parts.  

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Maybe trade calculators need more intelligence?   In general, I'll take the elite player over three replaceable parts.  

I’ve had people show me their trade calculator screen shot showing how the 3 guys I’m getting has a higher “score” than the 1 guy I’m giving up. It’s a flaw.

 

[DropKick]

I’ve had people show me their trade calculator screen shot showing how the 3 guys I’m getting has a higher “score” than the 1 guy I’m giving up. It’s a flaw.

Sure, Who knows how their algorithms work... or which variables they consider?  Obviously, just assigning values to players would be misleading in a 3 for 1 deal.  In practice, every deal is a bit unique as league setup and roster composition come into play.  In this scenario, the perceived value of CMC probably varies greatly from person to person.

 

[rockaction]

I’ve had people show me their trade calculator screen shot showing how the 3 guys I’m getting has a higher “score” than the 1 guy I’m giving up. It’s a flaw.

People shouldn't do that. The only time I did that was when a guy ridiculed my offer. It was clearly the going rate for the player, so I sent him a bunch of screenshots of different trade calculators. I was pissed. He's notoriously a low-ball offer guy and has had people complain to our commissioner about that because his offers are absurd three-quarters of the time. It's a rip-off to deal with him. I'd had it.

 

[runner06]

I made a couple more trades this past week.

0.5 PPR 12-team 24-man roster 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB, WR, or TE), 1 K, 1 DEF

Trade 1

Traded Mike Evans and Adam Thielen

Received: Marquise Brown, 2.05 pick (used to select Brian Robinson), and 3.04 pick

Trade 2

Traded Calvin Ridley and 3.04 pick

Received Alec Pierce

I didn't want to have a player suspended for the entire season clogging up a roster spot.

 

[Marauder]

Maybe trade calculators need more intelligence?   In general, I'll take the elite player over three replaceable parts.  

Of course that's true.  I've said that myself multiple times on this board.  I was just using that to show that this deal is not as wildly lopsided as the first responses all seemed to treat it as.  

The key part of your response is "In general".   There's a lot that goes into specific situations.  We don't know anything about the teams involved.

 

[Birdie048]

Got nervous on Wash whole situation / QB Play and WR options.    Continuing my "Rebuild" efforts 

Having both Curtis Sameul (soon to be 25) and Terry McLaurin (soon to be 27 yo)

12 Team 1 QB ppr (1-2 RB/2-5 WR/1-3 TE)

I Gave up:  Wash WR Terry McLaurin & KC RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Two 2023 2nds (both late 8-12 range)

I received:  Atl WR Bryan Edwards, 2023 1st (early - Top 3) 2024 1st (early/mid likely but who knows)

This gives me 4 of the Top 15 picks in 2023 with 3 likely Top 5 picks.

Nobody wants to offer me anything (of comparable value) for CMC or Ridley....  SHOCKING! 

 

[Jonesin For Some Football]

16 team PPR TE 1.5 IDP league.  I get Thomas value has fallen but good lord.

Michael Thomas

for

Chris Evans

Devin Duvernay

Wow.  This is nuts.  I get he doesn't have a ton of value but I'd rather let him die on my roster at that price.  Easily.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I Gave up:  Wash WR Terry McLaurin & KC RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Two 2023 2nds (both late 8-12 range)

I received:  Atl WR Bryan Edwards, 2023 1st (early - Top 3) 2024 1st (early/mid likely but who knows)

This gives me 4 of the Top 15 picks in 2023 with 3 likely Top 5 picks.

i like this value for you. 2x 1sts for McClaurin & CEH is a great return, especially a top 3 2023. In 1 QB, you’re looking at Gibbs, JSN, Boutte, Evans?  Then you’ve got a 2024 1st to play with too?

I like McClaurin, but I don’t see either Scary Terry or CEH worth a top 3 2023 pick. I think you made a great trade. I’m interested to see how others react to this one. 

Nobody wants to offer me anything (of comparable value) for CMC or Ridley....  SHOCKING! 

Surprising you’re not getting any offers for CMC. Ridley I understand. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I made a couple more trades this past week.

0.5 PPR 12-team 24-man roster 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB, WR, or TE), 1 K, 1 DEF

Trade 1

Traded Mike Evans and Adam Thielen

Received: Marquise Brown, 2.05 pick (used to select Brian Robinson), and 3.04 pick

I’m a bit surprised Mike Evans didn’t command more here. Thielen is a rough dynasty asset since he’s ancient, but Evans should get back at least a 1st. I like that you got younger, but I don’t love the return on that package 

Trade 2

Traded Calvin Ridley and 3.04 pick

Received Alec Pierce

I didn't want to have a player suspended for the entire season clogging up a roster spot.

It’s fine. I’m not sure what Ridley’s value is, so I don’t have a strong opinion on this one. I can completely understand wanting to jettison him. 

 

[efactor]

I’ve had people show me their trade calculator screen shot showing how the 3 guys I’m getting has a higher “score” than the 1 guy I’m giving up. It’s a flaw.

Agree.  But to me, using a trade calculator sucks all the fun out of making trades.  That's the fun part of fantasy football.  Making your own decisions and being right.  

 

[Jonesin For Some Football]

I made a couple more trades this past week.

0.5 PPR 12-team 24-man roster 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB, WR, or TE), 1 K, 1 DEF

Trade 1

Traded Mike Evans and Adam Thielen

Received: Marquise Brown, 2.05 pick (used to select Brian Robinson), and 3.04 pick

Trade 2

Traded Calvin Ridley and 3.04 pick

Received Alec Pierce

I didn't want to have a player suspended for the entire season clogging up a roster spot.

Trade 1 - Feels light for Evans/Thielen.  I'm not big on Hollywood even though I expect him to be good while D-Hop is out.  Those picks just don't seem high enough.

Trade 2 - I have Ridley and I would consider this as I do like Pierce.  I will probably just let him sit on my roster and hope for the best but I'm ok with this move.

 

[Jonesin For Some Football]

Got nervous on Wash whole situation / QB Play and WR options.    Continuing my "Rebuild" efforts 

Having both Curtis Sameul (soon to be 25) and Terry McLaurin (soon to be 27 yo)

12 Team 1 QB ppr (1-2 RB/2-5 WR/1-3 TE)

I Gave up:  Wash WR Terry McLaurin & KC RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Two 2023 2nds (both late 8-12 range)

I received:  Atl WR Bryan Edwards, 2023 1st (early - Top 3) 2024 1st (early/mid likely but who knows)

This gives me 4 of the Top 15 picks in 2023 with 3 likely Top 5 picks.

Nobody wants to offer me anything (of comparable value) for CMC or Ridley....  SHOCKING! 

I can see both sides of this trade.  If you can be sure it is top 3 and the 2nds are late then I do like this trade for you.  I do like Scary Terry but not huge on CEH.  I will say if you are a good WR and some RB depth away from competing, then getting those 2 players and 2 2nds in a deep draft isn't a bad move either.  Could be a win-win.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

People shouldn't do that. The only time I did that was when a guy ridiculed my offer. It was clearly the going rate for the player, so I sent him a bunch of screenshots of different trade calculators. I was pissed. He's notoriously a low-ball offer guy and has had people complain to our commissioner about that because his offers are absurd three-quarters of the time. It's a rip-off to deal with him. I'd had it.

I get that. As I’ve mentioned here - they’re a good tool for communication. If you know your potential trade partner uses a calc, get on that page & you can gain the upper hand if the specific calc overvalues an asset your partner is interested in.

But even if both trade partners are using the same calc, ya still can’t offer 4 quarters for a dollar. I’m pretty sure that’s universally understood, though I read about people making this complaint here all the time, so I guess not. 

Still - don’t blame the trade calculator. Blame the person making the dumb offer & trying to justify it with the trade calculator. 

The calculator is just a tool in the toolbox. One can use a hammer to drive in a nail, or one can use a hammer for much less eloquent purposes like smashing your neighbor’s taillights because they slept with your wife. But we can’t blame the hammer, so why do people blame the trade calcs? 

Also that was a purely hypothetical example and not at all directed at my neighbor Steve who stole my girl. Damn you, Steve! 
(j/k) 

 

[JohnnyU]

I get that. As I’ve mentioned here - they’re a good tool for communication. If you know your potential trade partner uses a calc, get on that page & you can gain the upper hand if the specific calc overvalues an asset your partner is interested in.

But even if both trade partners are using the same calc, ya still can’t offer 4 quarters for a dollar. I’m pretty sure that’s universally understood, though I read about people making this complaint here all the time, so I guess not. 

Still - don’t blame the trade calculator. Blame the person making the dumb offer & trying to justify it with the trade calculator. 

The calculator is just a tool in the toolbox. One can use a hammer to drive in a nail, or one can use a hammer for much less eloquent purposes like smashing your neighbor’s taillights because they slept with your wife. But we can’t blame the hammer, so why do people blame the trade calcs? 

Also that was a purely hypothetical example and not at all directed at my neighbor Steve who stole my girl. Damn you, Steve! 
(j/k) 

I agree, don't blame the trade calculators but blame those who use these to try and justify a bad trade offer.  In general trade calculators are decent tool if you understand the context of the offer and how it relates to the type of league it is and adjust accordingly.  For example, a DEVY league may have two different drafts, one for DEVYs and one for current rookies.  These trade calculators are worthless for this type of league because rookie picks are devalued compared to standard dynasty leagues. Also, in DEVY leagues where the devy and rookies are in the same draft,  2nd round picks are much more valuable in these types of leagues.  Plus, just adding a numeric value to a player doesn't give a true value of a trade. If it favors the side getting multiple players because that side has the higher numeric value, doesn't mean the trade truly favors the team getting multiple players.  In fact, most of the time these types of trades favor the team getting the one player.

 

[Lehigh98]

I’ve had people show me their trade calculator screen shot showing how the 3 guys I’m getting has a higher “score” than the 1 guy I’m giving up. It’s a flaw.

For example, DLF has a "Dynasty Trade Analyzer" that does a "Package Value Adjustment" for multiplayer deals to try and take that into account. 

What is the Value Package Adjustment?

The Package Value Adjustment is designed to mitigate the effects of ‘spamming’ one side of a trade with numerous lesser-quality players or draft picks in order to make up value of a more valuable player on the other side. The adjustment is based on several factors and is applied to varying degrees to both players and picks. You can disable this adjustment if the loss of potential roster spots in not really a factor to you, or if you just wish to see the values without the adjustment. Simply change the Package Adjustment option to off.

In this case it rang up:

CMC: 604.5

Pickett: 186.5

Cook: 104.2

Pickens: 92.0

PVA: -74.9

And calculated a total value of 604.5 for CMC vs 307.7 for the adjusted rook package.

 

[Birdie048]

I can see both sides of this trade.  If you can be sure it is top 3 and the 2nds are late then I do like this trade for you.  I do like Scary Terry but not huge on CEH.  I will say if you are a good WR and some RB depth away from competing, then getting those 2 players and 2 2nds in a deep draft isn't a bad move either.  Could be a win-win.

I realize there are numerous factors going into projections for next year picks... injuries included 

The KTC Tool  has him #12 of 12.  Last year he was #9 of 12 in standings and had his best assets are RB Damien Harris NEP and WR DK Metcalf Sea --> both who are likely due for major regressions.  I realize giving him McLaurin potentially makes his 2023 1st worse (not Top 3), but I felt the overall Wash operations would be a mess and filter into the team/game plan.  Contract aside for McLaurin. 

The 2nds I moved -->  1 was Champ game loser and other was Semifinal loser but #1 in Points.  KTC has them #1 & #4

 

[Buckna]

For example, DLF has a "Dynasty Trade Analyzer" that does a "Package Value Adjustment" for multiplayer deals to try and take that into account. 

In this case it rang up:

CMC: 604.5

Pickett: 186.5

Cook: 104.2

Pickens: 92.0

PVA: -74.9

And calculated a total value of 604.5 for CMC vs 307.7 for the adjusted rook package.

Beat me to it, but I was going to mention DLF's calculator as well. They also have a number of other adjustments you can turn on or off, a scaler for future pick values to underweight or overweight, adjustments for packages like you mentioned, as well as adjustments based on who is giving the most players in a deal or the best player in a deal. It will also warn you sometimes when you are making a lopsided offer in some cases (like you're asking for the best player and the most pieces at the same time in your offer.) Nothing is perfect, but it is a fun tool to play around with.

 

[cloppbeast]

Guy trades Gabriel Davis and a 3rd for Mitchell Trubiski.

 

[JohnnyU]

Guy trades Gabriel Davis and a 3rd for Mitchell Trubiski.

If I did that I would quit FF.

 

[titusbramble]

I hope to god that's superflex and even then that seems bad

 

[joey]

I hope to god that's superflex and even then that seems bad

It better be a MegaFlex league where you have to start 4 QBs. 

 

[Keith R]

Odd trade with big names. Not involved,  I don't know what to make of it.

Non SF, start 1 RB, 1 WR, 2 flex, 1 QB, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D.  Non-PPR.

Jonathan Taylor and Bryan Edwards 

for

Nick Chubb and Deebo Samuel