Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
*** OFFICIAL *** In-Season Dynasty Trade Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter doowain
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
12 team ppr QB_2RB_3WR_TE_FL
- Team S gave up Flacco, Joe BAL QB;Thomas, Julius DEN TE
- Team M gave up Wilson, Russell SEA QB; Floyd, Michael ARI WR
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I don't think it's a great trade, but I'll play devil's advocate. Jeffery is on pace for a 1200+ yard season. Blackmon is a top 10-15 NFL WR when playing. A first round pick gives you a lottery ticket to get a good young player and (IMO) this is a strong draft class to choose from. As much as people here love Gronk, the guy has had some issues with durability and that may or may not be a long term problem. If he stays healthy, sure you'll regret trading him away. If his back flares up in a few weeks and he's out for the rest of the season, suddenly you start to like that trade a lot more.
EBF
Footballguy
Seems pretty horrible for the side getting Peterson. Very short-sighted. Martin probably has more remaining career value. I'd take any future 1st over Lattimore.
You could remove Harvin and one of the firsts and this might still be slanted in favor of the Martin side. Throw those pieces into the equation and it's a disaster.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
We could, but this is a guy who just recovered from some serious injuries. He's getting back a couple potential #1 WR's and 1st in a good class.
SieteCinco
Footballguy
I agree. I had tried to come up with an offer he would accept straight away with no counter needed and that was it.Concept Coop said:
Losing Bridgewater/Nicks doesn't kill me though as I still have Aaron Rodgers/RG3/SamBradford/EJ Manuel and now Tannehill at QB, and Calvin/Dez/AJG/Harvin/DenariusMoore/Amari Cooper/Diggs at WR. I still like Stewart so adding him and a short term QB2 while all of my guys are out without really hurting my team was worth it (from my perspective, even though its a loss on paper)
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I just think you should have found a better way to fill the short-term hole you have that didn't include giving away Bridgewater in this format.
Just because you have a stacked team that can afford the loss, doesn't mean you should make a bad trade.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Romo for me. The team getting Ridley/Eli would have to have nothing at RB, or close to it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I probably take Kendal Wright over Manuel and Ball....................Bernard?? Lord.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
PLus it looks like he traded Gronk assumign his value was already crushed. That is SUPER light for Gronk.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Team A gave: Cobb
Team B gave: Keenan
Team B gave: Keenan
FUBAR
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
Witten for
Kelce, E Sanders
Should explain this one. Witten was owned by a rebuilding team with reed, Wright and Pitta, max 3 TEs start. up to 5 receivers start, 16 team league. Owner is pretty high on Kelce and tried to get him before the season.
Kelce, E Sanders
Should explain this one. Witten was owned by a rebuilding team with reed, Wright and Pitta, max 3 TEs start. up to 5 receivers start, 16 team league. Owner is pretty high on Kelce and tried to get him before the season.
Last edited by a moderator:
Riffraff
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
FUBAR
Footballguy
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
I was wondering why the hell you asked, lol.although I'd take Cobb, was thinking Keenum
I'm the team that gave up Cobb. Short-sighted maybe, but I need him for my lineup as I'm making a playoff push, and I'm not 100% convinced there's going to be a huge difference between the two long-term anyway.
ng to push into the playoffs
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Sure, or something could happen to Jeffery and you were just the guy who sold Rob Gronkowski for a random rookie 1st round pick.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Potential #1 WRs are neither particularly rare nor particularly valuable. I can probably name 30+ potential #1 WRs. Absent scarcity, there is no value.
The guy traded a player who scores like a top-5 fantasy WR, except he's eligible to be started at the TE position. In return, he got an addict serving an indefinite suspension and one strike away from an even more indefinite suspension, a promising receiver prospect with under 1,000 career receiving yards, and a random first. Would any rebuilding team have traded Dez for that package? Demaryius? Julio? Green? Because Gronk scores as many points as those guys, except as I said, he has TE eligibility.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
You're coming at it from a pretty negative perspective. Only looking at the positives with the Gronk side and the negatives with the other side. I'm not the world's biggest Jeffery fan and I think his production would be more impressive if he didn't have Marshall working on the other side of him, but the guy is on pace for 1200+ yards in his sophomore NFL season. Pretty damn good. You've banged the drum for injury-prone ppg monsters like Gronk and Harvin in the past, but now you're disregarding Justin Blackmon. It's a slightly different situation with Blackmon, but he's similar to those guys in the sense that when he plays he can be relied on to deliver a big ppg advantage. IF he comes back and stays out of trouble he's going to be a massive steal. If you assign something like a 35% probability to that he looks like a pretty significant piece. And you just never know with a late 1st. It's not worth a superstar alone, but you have a real shot at an eventual FF starter there.Adam Harstad said:
Do I love the trade? No, but there's upside/downside to both sides. If Gronk gets slowed down by his injuries it will turn the whole thing on its ear. Given his track record, I would say that's a pretty significant possibility. I think if I were moving him I'd rather get an established commodity like Green or Demaryius, but two premium young prospects (even with Blackmon's warts he's still a top 5-6 under-25 WR in the NFL) and a high draft pick is not the worst package you can get if you decide to split a key player into smaller pieces (which I generally don't advocate).
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Justin Blackmon produces huge per-game numbers, but has missed a lot of games already due to "injury", will be out an unspecified amount of time with his current "injury", and is at a dramatically (DRAMATICALLY) increased risk of receiving another "injury" at any given moment that will keep him out for a year (if it doesn't end his career entirely). His NFL future is totally uncertain- iirc, Jacksonville can cut him with no further financial implications. In other words, if you really want to go making the "injury" analogy, then Justin Blackmon is... Danario Alexander.
I have Alexander ranked 61st in my most recent set of rankings. There's a reason you haven't seen me banging the drum for him. What I like about buying injured players is that they're injured, they heal, and then that's the last of it. You get full-strength production at radically injury-discounted prices. With Alexander, that's not the case. He's one of the few legitimately injury-prone players in the league. He was a restricted free agent this last offseason and SD tendered him at the lowest possible level. No team even bothered to extend him an offer, even though they wouldn't have owed SD any compensation had Alexander accepted. The NFL made it abundantly clear that they did not believe that Alexander was anyone who could be counted on for any stretch of time. Alexander's most recent season-ending knee injury really just served as the exclamation mark to highlight that point.
With Blackmon, that's also not the case. There is no "he gets better, he's done with it" with Justin Blackmon. At literally every second of every day for the rest of his playing days, Blackmon will be at a radically elevated risk of having his entire football career ended immediately. There's no telling where he plays next year, or even if he plays next year. There's no telling if he's the same guy after all the distractions and time he's going to be taking off. You can't just assume that he's going to get on the field in week 1 next week and pick up where he left off. Maybe he doesn't see the field until week 9. Maybe he struggles out the gate. I have no idea, but I do know that Blackmon is every bit as much of a time bomb as Alexander.
If I'm being perfectly honest, I think Alshon Jeffery has a greater chance of putting up a WR1 season than Justin Blackmon does at this point. Either way, I think they're both fantasy WR3s. And no way in hell would I ever consider trading Rob Gronkowski for a pair of WR3s and a random rookie 1st. Like I said, throw in two more random 1sts and we'll talk.
Last edited by a moderator:
I am among the few that do not view this as a bad trade. I wouldn’t be jumping to accept, but I would have considered it as a Gronk owner.Adam Harstad said:
First, I’m not a big fan of TEs unless scoring is 1.5PPR (even if its Gronk/Graham). I find it too easy to get a productive one in the lineup one way or the other (e.g., lower tier TE1s are rather cheap in trade), and I prefer having lots of quality WRs in the lineup and bench (for one, because they are so desirable to others in trade).
Second, while I love Gronk in 1.5 PPR where his massive production completely outweighs the risks involved in holding him (I am one of those worried about his physical style of play and prior injuries), his production in 1PPR does not.
While Gronk may have historically scored similar to Dez, Demaryius, Julio, Calvin and AJ Green, I find in 1PPR that Gronk typically can’t buy you any of those top 5 guys (not always the case). I am far more confident that those top 5 WRs will hold their value longer than Gronk will despite similar ages (assuming first of all that Gronk is at their level in the first place, which I do not believe he is). The top 5 in the leagues I am playing are practically untouchable. Gronk is not. I would be willing to add quite a bit to Gronk in order to land one of the top 5 WR in 1PPR (as evidenced by my trading of Gronk and Keenan Allen for Calvin).
That said, I ALWAYS look to combine two, three or more of those top 5 WR on my teams plus several more in the next tier, so it is possible that the comfort of staying with this formula (and WRs generally) may be a larger factor for me personally than I realize.
As for players getting injured for a rebuilding team, it is true that injury is a risk for all active players (not just Gronk). However, there is no such risk when talking about the 2014 1st (part of the beauty of 1sts for rebuilding teams). Blackmon suffers from other obvious risks, but serious injury in 2013 is no longer one of those risks.
Jeffery is exposed to that same risk, but not to the extent of Gronk. I am not saying that Gronk is any more likely to suffer a serious injury in 2013 than does Jeffery, but IF both were to suffer an injury, Jeffery’s value would maintain better than that of Gronk (because of Gronk's recent injury history).
In that way, the Gronk side of the deal carries greater injury risk than does the Jeffery/Blackmon/1st side for a rebuilding team.
EBF
Footballguy
Blackmon is a very binary proposition. If he gets in trouble again, he might be done as a professional football player. If he stays clean and motivated, he's a top 10 dynasty WR. The fact that he's going to score like a WR1 when he plays gives him a lot more value than WR61. You can get a WR3 any time you need one for the price of a late 1st round rookie pick, but real difference-maker production is hard to find. There's a significant risk factor with him, but there's also a pretty plausible scenario in which he comes back and totally outproduces his current market value. That makes him a pretty appealing player to keep on the end of your bench. In a league that starts 3-4 WRs every week, the difference in ppg that he gives you over crappy WR3-4 types might rival the difference that Gronk gives you in a some start 1 TE leagues. And bear in mind that there's a big wave of really talented TEs streaming into the league (Cameron, Reed, Eifert, and college guys like Ebron and Amaro). That super rare production might start to become a little more pedestrian in comparison.
Gronk missed an entire season in college with back injuries. He has missed significant time in each of the past two NFL seasons. A couple more injuries and he starts to look like the DeMarco Murray of TEs. He has obvious value because he outpaces all but one player at his position when healthy, but I would not be so quick to assume that this scenario will continue indefinitely. That's primarily where I don't buy the idea that the trade was obviously a catastrophe. The idea that this guy is a shoe-in lock for crazy production over the next several years requires a bigger leap of faith than I think some realize.
As for the rest of the deal, picks always add a wild card to any trade. I've made many suspect moves over the years that were (at least partially) redeemed by a draft pick. A mid-late 1st is a crapshoot, but there's a pretty significant chance that you pick well and get a decent contributor or an outright star. I think it's easy to disregard picks when evaluating a trade because you can't put a tangible face to the selection, but you just never know what you're going to find there.
To make a long story short...
The probability of Gronk faltering at some point and the probability of Jeffery, Blackmon, or the pick turning into major long term contributors bring this one a little closer to even than I think some people might realize. Of course, I'm not as high on Gronk as most FBG posters. If someone offered me that package for Graham I would probably pass. Is there upside though? Absolutely. There's are several plausible scenarios in which the Jeffery side wins long term and I don't think they require a huge HUGE stretching of the odds.
Gronk missed an entire season in college with back injuries. He has missed significant time in each of the past two NFL seasons. A couple more injuries and he starts to look like the DeMarco Murray of TEs. He has obvious value because he outpaces all but one player at his position when healthy, but I would not be so quick to assume that this scenario will continue indefinitely. That's primarily where I don't buy the idea that the trade was obviously a catastrophe. The idea that this guy is a shoe-in lock for crazy production over the next several years requires a bigger leap of faith than I think some realize.
As for the rest of the deal, picks always add a wild card to any trade. I've made many suspect moves over the years that were (at least partially) redeemed by a draft pick. A mid-late 1st is a crapshoot, but there's a pretty significant chance that you pick well and get a decent contributor or an outright star. I think it's easy to disregard picks when evaluating a trade because you can't put a tangible face to the selection, but you just never know what you're going to find there.
To make a long story short...
The probability of Gronk faltering at some point and the probability of Jeffery, Blackmon, or the pick turning into major long term contributors bring this one a little closer to even than I think some people might realize. Of course, I'm not as high on Gronk as most FBG posters. If someone offered me that package for Graham I would probably pass. Is there upside though? Absolutely. There's are several plausible scenarios in which the Jeffery side wins long term and I don't think they require a huge HUGE stretching of the odds.
EBF
Footballguy
Almost mentioned that myself. I have Graham in a couple leagues and occasionally get offers for him. Someone came calling this morning offering Hakeem Nicks and some other smaller piece. I rejected that immediately. He came back asking what it would take to get it done and I said any deal would have to involve AJ Green.
Haven't heard back from him since. Doubt I will. In the offseason in that same league I offered Graham for Dez straight up. Rejected. Graham for Julio straight up. Rejected.
Everyone wants to get something without giving up something. So if you're looking to shift one of these beast TEs for a premium player elsewhere, you might find it hard in practice. That doesn't necessarily mean you need to go accepting the first halfway decent proposition that crosses your desk, but it's worth mentioning. If for some reason you decide that it's a ripe time to move one of these guys, a volatile deal with several smaller high upside pieces might be the best offer you get.
Last edited by a moderator:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Maybe it's just me, but I don't think I would have moved Gronk for that package even pre-Blackmon suspension.
At this point, I think the upside to this trade is that one of Blackmon/Jeffrey/1st becomes a top 10 player at their position long-term. 1 of the 3. In order for this trade to work out for the side giving up Gronk you figure at least 2, maybe all 3 need to wind up top 10 unless Gronk falls off the face of the planet.
At this point, I think the upside to this trade is that one of Blackmon/Jeffrey/1st becomes a top 10 player at their position long-term. 1 of the 3. In order for this trade to work out for the side giving up Gronk you figure at least 2, maybe all 3 need to wind up top 10 unless Gronk falls off the face of the planet.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Unless I'm missing something, he doesn't even have a short term hole. He mentioned going after Tannehill because Rodgers went down, but then listed RGIII and Manuel among his QBs later. Was Stewart the target here? Seems like a huge overpay for him.
5 pt per TD Passing, 1/2 pt PPR.
Team A:
Randall Cobb, Mike Wallace
Team B:
Andrew Luck
I have Brady so I got a little freaked out when he was slumping. This is a true dynasty, so I figure Luck is a 10 yr investment. I have Harvin, Fitz, Crabtree, VJax and Kendall Wright as my other WRs so had the depth to make it happen
Team A:
Randall Cobb, Mike Wallace
Team B:
Andrew Luck
I have Brady so I got a little freaked out when he was slumping. This is a true dynasty, so I figure Luck is a 10 yr investment. I have Harvin, Fitz, Crabtree, VJax and Kendall Wright as my other WRs so had the depth to make it happen
r0llin_game
Footballguy
It's funny that this is mentioned. Right now, I view Jimmy as just about the only untradable player in dynasty. In one of my rebuilds, where I have lots of youth, I was offered something like Julio/VD for Jimmy/DBowe. I told the owner that sure, getting rid of Jimmy for Julio loses me games now, but even with Gronk, a healthy Jimmy is maybe the best asset to have in dynasty. There has been the emergence of Cameron and Julius, and of course, Gronk is on Jimmy's level too, but Gronk does have serious injury risk. With Gronk's injury risk, it does make him more affordable and I've taken advantage of that in two of my leagues, though, I still paid a decent price on him. With Jimmy's injuries being way less severe, and him being as dominant as he is in a position where he's going to average way more points over the #3 TE (with a healthy Gronk), it makes him extremely valuable since you're getting such a stud where there's hardly anyone that comes close to Jimmy on the week-to-week basis.
Back to the Gronk for Alshon/Blackmon etc deal, is it a big gamble? Definitely. But there's gamble on both sides. It's these deals that make dynasty so intriguing. If I was rebuilding, and had a chance to make a trade like that, it's definitely one I very well might make. I love this draft class with the possible number of talented underclass men that could declare, so I'd say it's a very fair deal with heaps of risk given on both sides.
FUBAR
Footballguy
I've taken to the strategy of getting a true elite stud QB early in a dynasty build. (My dynasty QBs currently are Luck, Stafford, and RG3) but if you start more than 3 WRs, I'd probably prefer Cobb. Just by a little.
We start 2RB, 3WR, 1TE and 1 FLEX - WR/RB/TE.
TEs have premium PPR (1 pt per).
At full PPR for WR, I probably wouldn't have done the deal. At 4 pts per TD, probably wouldn't have done it either.
I figured with Lacy emerging and Nelson establishing himself as the 1/1A, it was worth the risk. I was never all that sold on Cobb as a top 10WR long term - I think he's very highly ranked now because of his QB only.
Wallace was warming the bench so he was a throw-in IMO.
I also have Michael Floyd, Eifert, and 3 solid options at RB which means WR rarely fills my flex slot.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Agreed that cobbs value is tied to his qb. Thankfully that likely won't change any time soon.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
There is risk with all slot options. Not many teams - including GB, up to this year - use the slot enough to produce top 5-10 numbers. Cobb did so last year, in large part, due to getting time on the outisde.
This season however - although the sample size was small - GB had Cobb on the field in the 80-95% range (snaps) in every game. Up from 60% or so last year (when everyone was healthy).
Essentially: Sure, there is concern that his production could take a major hit outside of GB. But, while in GB, he'll get all the targets he needs to finish in the top 5-10 range.
Agreed, I just think Luck will have value wherever he goes- was more talking about Cobb switching teams once his rookie deal is up. Will be hard to pay/keep Jordy, Cobb, Rodgers, Mathews, etc.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
It's a 2QB league, so that's probably where the hole is after a Rodgers injury--but that's also what makes Bridgewater worth so much.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
12 team ppr
Khiry Robinson
2014 2nd late
for
Knile Davis
Stedman Bailey
Khiry Robinson
2014 2nd late
for
Knile Davis
Stedman Bailey
tarheel1unc
Footballguy
12 Team PPR
- Carolina Big TD's gave up Brown, Vincent SDC WR; Year 2014 Round 3 Draft Pick from Carolina Big TD's
- BEACH HEELS gave up Blackmon, Justin JAC WR
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'd be ok starting RGIII and Manuel (he's back this week), rather than adding Tannehill at the price. I really see little to no difference between Manuel and Tannehill for this season - but yeah I guess for depth purposes.
Similar threads
