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***Official Jays Thread*** Lots of optimism, again. (4 Viewers)

Epic Problem said:
Any timeline on Donaldson? Took a look, but didn't see anything. 
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Donaldson not coming back when he's eligible - will be more than 10 days on the DL.

Kendrys Morales will return Friday - not sure if it will be Tim Mayza or Teoscar Hernandez going back down but they only have LF/RF/DH to find at bats for Granderson, Pearce, Grichuk, Morales and Teoscar if he stays up.

Today's game is only on Facebook, which is the dumbest thing ever. The head of Rogers Sports (who own the Jays and the network that carries their games on TV) tweeted this morning basically saying "we know it's stupid, it's out of our control, MLB sold these games to Facebook".

 
Very early, but man is the offseason looking good for Shapiro/Atkins so far. #1 bullpen in AL with Axford, Oh, Clippard. Solarte and Granderson are tearing the cover off the ball, Diaz filling in nicely/playing better than 2017 Tulo at SS.

I guess the swing and miss (heh) so far is Grichuk but he's showing signs of coming along as well.

 
Gurriel Jr. coming up as the backup infielder is pretty interesting. With him and Teoscar up and the Jays winning, they could conceivably keep being pretty good this season, while integrating some of the younger players, with Alford on deck at some point and then Guerrero Jr. and Bichette if they're in the thick of it later in the year and/or next season.

I was assuming there would be some sort of down period/bridge but if these guys show they can stick :shrug:  

 
The Jays might have another big second generation prospect popping up. 

Cavan Biggio is slashing 333/435/725 at AA with 4 HR already - he was supposed to be a good approach (more BBs than Ks) good fielding guy with limited power upside but he hit 11 HR last year and it looks to be continuing.

He's 3-4 years older than Bichette/Guerrero but was a 2016 college pick so similar pro experience. He barely cracked Jays top 30 prospects lists preseason so he still has a lot to prove but encouraging start. 

 
Granderson pretty much single-handedly won that game last night with some help from a great start by Happ.  Might need to address Travis at 2nd soon, he looks lost at the plate right now.

Never knew much about Granderson other than he's been around and always produced. Watched his interview with Hazel after the game and am now a bigger fan (of him, not her*).  Well spoken and seems like a sweetheart of a guy.  Gibby actually managing this year - see hit&run with martin in the 2nd.  Some real talent in the minors so things not nearly as bleak as I thought last September.

*she's OK too :thumbup:

 
falguy said:
Granderson pretty much single-handedly won that game last night with some help from a great start by Happ.  Might need to address Travis at 2nd soon, he looks lost at the plate right now.

Never knew much about Granderson other than he's been around and always produced. Watched his interview with Hazel after the game and am now a bigger fan (of him, not her*).  Well spoken and seems like a sweetheart of a guy.  Gibby actually managing this year - see hit&run with martin in the 2nd.  Some real talent in the minors so things not nearly as bleak as I thought last September.

*she's OK too :thumbup:
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It seems like Gurriel may take over from Travis sooner than later, maybe Solarte once Donaldson returns.  Agree about Granderson, seems like a great guy and amazing addition. If you look into him more, he does as much charity/off field work in the community as any player in the league.

Gibby's been pretty good. Leaving Happ in for the 7th last night to face the Red Sox a third time was maybe not the by the book call but he got 3 up 3 down, so can't argue. Osuna has to be in there for the 9th, he just didn't get it done.  He's also not letting contracts determine who plays - Teoscar playing over Grichuk/Morales and Gurriel playing regularly being prime examples. I am obviously a huge Gibbons fan and I think he's always had a good feel for the bullpen. The fact that they are using the hit and run and things like that more has more to do with personnel IMO - I don't think Gibby was ever against it but with a lineup of Tulo/Bau/EE/Smoak/Donaldson/Pearce/Morales, there's not a lot of speed and athleticism to play that way. 

As much as I'm enjoying this early run, it's hard not to look ahead to an infield with some combination of Smoak/Gurriel/Bichette/Vlad/Solarte/Donaldson(unlikely)/Biggio?... and think of all the fun possibilities.

The Granderson/Pearce platoon is working out so well but I still want to see Alford in at some point, wasn't anticipating the team having more guys being productive than there was space for in the lineup but the offense has been real good. The starting pitching is more of a concern though... in both cases, they should find their level with the pitching improving and the bats cooling off.

 
falguy said:
What's up with Stroman? Still not 100%?  Just overthinking things?
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Yeah, I don't know - this seems like a possibility. He was cruising last start, then all of a sudden threw 7 straight balls then gave up a massive home run. Maybe missing spring training is having an impact.  

I read a piece on him saying he's still been super ground ball heavy but they're being hit harder and finding gaps, so that plus more walks has meant a lot of base runners. Velocity, pitch use etc... mostly the same so it should correct. I have faith in him turning it around.

 
falguy said:
Travis optioned to aaa. Hopefully he can figure things out down there.
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He just hasn't looked good. Makes sense to have Gurriel in there now (and Solarte when Donaldson returns).

Teoscar just hit another home run after drawing another impressive walk in the first.. did the Jays get a potential star for two months of Francisco Liriano :oldunsure:

 
Roberto Osuna, the Blue Jays, and the Limits of Presuming Innocence

it’s unlikely that the omission of the word “allegations” was either accidental or a product merely of Canadian law given how thoroughly that law protects the accused. And it’s not like Canada doesn’t have defamation torts — they do.

Given all this, there are three reasons I can see why the Blue Jays aren’t tempering their statement about Osuna. The first is that they know something — something that makes the allegations credible enough that they don’t want to soften them. The second is that they are doing it for PR purposes. Although, if that’s true, throwing their closer under the bus is an odd move for a contending team. And third, it’s an error. That I find unlikely; even Gibbons never used the word “allegations.”

And that’s troubling. It’s troubling because the Blue Jays evidently believe these allegations to be sufficiently credible that they are willing to ignore possible damage to Osuna’s reputation if they’re wrong. After all, the language “conduct associated with this incident” pretty much takes for granted that the incident happened. And that means that the allegations against Osuna are likely pretty serious. Whatever Osuna is alleged to have done — and, as I write this, we don’t know exactly what it is — it’s pretty serious. Canada, like the U.S., follows the British common law, so their assault laws are fairly similar to what you might expect in the States. And that covers such a broad range of behaviors that it’s impossible at this point to know what type of conduct we’re talking about.

But as troubling as it is, there is a more notable development here. The Blue Jays are a team that is in contention and has better than a 20% chance of making the playoffs. They’re a team that is projected to win 84 games, enough to keep them in the Wild Card race all year. There’s something at stake.

Despite that, the Blue Jays appear to have made a decision to presume that Osuna’s alleged victim is telling the truth. Objectively, there’s some logic to that decision: studies have shown that between 2% and 6% of rape allegations are false, which means that as many as 98% are true. False domestic-abuse allegations are equally rare. Statistically, it’s just more likely that Osuna’s accuser is telling the truth, and the Blue Jays have evidently decided to take her allegations at face value. Legally, there’s no reason they can’t. And in the court of public opinion, there are probably reasons they should.

However logical Toronto’s decision, it’s one that few (if any) clubs have embraced before this moment. The Blue Jays, with this one move, appear to have taken a real, if subtle, stand on behalf of women’s safety. It’s a position which, if I might editorialize briefly, is overdue.

When we discussed Sano, we talked about the punishments available under the Domestic Violence Policy. And while Sano wasn’t suspended, he also wasn’t arrested. A review of penalties for players who were arrested isn’t heartening for the Blue Jays’ on-field prospects. Aroldis Chapman got a 30-game suspension, Reyes landed a 52-game suspension, and Olivera received an 82-game suspension. Given the Jays’ precarious place in the standings and Osuna’s importance to the team — Osuna has already racked up 0.5 WAR and is sixth in MLB with nine saves for a 19-17 Toronto team — a loss of that length for Toronto could be brutal. There’s also the fact that Osuna, who plays in Canada, could have visa problems if he is, in fact, convicted; Jung Ho Kang is proof of that. This is a saga which could last long beyond the commissioner’s investigation.

There is one last thing to consider. The Blue Jays rank 13th in the majors with 0.9 relief pitcher WAR, and Osuna accounts for more than half of that by himself. If the Blue Jays do, in fact, miss the playoffs, Osuna — or, more likely, Osuna’s absence — will likely be a not-insignificant factor. It’s important to remember what the Blue Jays might be giving up. It’s also worth noting what they might have gained, though. The organization’s message is distinct from those sent by other clubs faced with similar situations.
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I don't know that the Jays had a lot of options here, it really feels like there is something to this incident. The response I saw on social media was almost unanimous in not wanting to see Osuna anywhere near the team. Now that could be because of the liberal, stats oriented, young diverse bubble of Jays fans that I interact with but also - that is who a lot of the Jays fans who brought them to leading the AL in attendance are.

Anyway, ####ty situation but they've handled it about as well as you could hope for to this point - and to the point of the Fangraphs piece, probably better than any MLB team to date - tonight was supposed to be Osuna t-shirt day but they've switched that to Yangervis Solarte.

 
It was a run.

This team will finish with one of the worst records in the AL. Bad starting pitching, pen already warn down, nobody hitting consistently. Add all the division games and it's going to be a rough ride. 

 
@KeeganMatheson

#BlueJays top LHP prospect Ryan Borucki threw seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits, in AAA Buffalo this afternoon.

His ERA is down to 3.27. 
Jaime Garcia's sits at 6.02.

 
Northern Voice said:
@KeeganMatheson

#BlueJays top LHP prospect Ryan Borucki threw seven shutout innings, allowing just three hits, in AAA Buffalo this afternoon.

His ERA is down to 3.27. 
Jaime Garcia's sits at 6.02.
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Borucki starting for the Jays tomorrow.

Grichuk started in CF for the Jays tonight and probably should more often, as Pillar continues to be very bad. Grichuk also hit a ball 795 feet tonight.

edit - Grichuk also saved the win with this ridiculous catch

 
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Donaldson had a setback, reevaluated in three weeks. Will be interesting to see how much his value falls, probably hurts the Jays chances of getting anything of value for him at the deadline and he may even have to consider the qualifying offer. 

 
Steve Pearce traded for a prospect, Santiago Espinal. 

Teoscar/Grichuk/Pillar/Smoak/Morales are all RHB or switch hitters as well, so 1B/OF was way overcrowded and that's not even considering that the Jays are in sell mode and the guys above all have more term left on their contracts (plus Alford, Smith Jr., Pompey etc...waiting in the minors).

That said I did like Pearce and he's arguably a better hitter vs. LHP than anyone listed up there. 

 
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Jays get prospects Forrest Wall and Chad Spanberger for Seung-Hwan Oh. 

I liked Oh but that seems like a great return for a cheap offseason signing. 

 
falguy said:
What do you think about the Happ trade, @Northern Voice?

Doesn't seem like they got much - but a quick read seems to suggest the Yankee fans aren't HAPPy either.

Who the heck is going to pitch for Toronto in the second half? :unsure:
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I think Drury as a 25 year old with 3 years of control beyond this year and some possible upside is probably being discounted too much by fans who are prospect happy right now. 

If Vlad and Bo are up next year, you need MLB caliber players around them and Grichuk, Solarte, Drury, Hernandez, Travis etc are at least that. 

McKinney is in the similar mold to Teoscar/Grichuk which is a bit puzzling but obviously a type of player this new regime likes. 

 
Northern Voice said:
I think Drury as a 25 year old with 3 years of control beyond this year and some possible upside is probably being discounted too much by fans who are prospect happy right now. 

If Vlad and Bo are up next year, you need MLB caliber players around them and Grichuk, Solarte, Drury, Hernandez, Travis etc are at least that. 

McKinney is in the similar mold to Teoscar/Grichuk which is a bit puzzling but obviously a type of player this new regime likes. 
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Thanks. I wonder if Estrada will get moved (although he has the new blister concern) and Osuna. If these 2 guys go we may expect martin to get on the bump sometime. He certainly hits like a pitcher.

 
OF Pompey and IF Urshela pulled from the AAA Bisons lineup after one inning today. 

OF Granderson and IF Solarte not in the Jays lineup today. 

:popcorn:

 
Getting anything for Loup - even a bucket of balls - is a coup. That guy can look so good for 2 strikes, then throws a spinner right down the middle. I agree on the Osuna trade. Thought they did quite well all things considered.  Will be interesting how he affects the Houston clubhouse.  Not the Jays problem any longer.  Wish they could have moved a few more guys but I suppose that can still happen. Clippard, Morales are a couple I'd be happy to see go. The rest of this season will be painful to watch (well,actually it's been painful for a while now, I suppose) . Build for the Vlad years.

 
Some mildly interesting offseason stuff.

The Aledmys Diaz for Trent Thornton trade isn't a big one but it gives a bit of an idea of what the Jays are thinking of for next year's roster by moving Diaz to make room for Gurriel to play every day, with maybe some Richard Urena and eventually Bo Bichette.  Solarte is expected to be non-tendered to clear out the gap further.

Ross Atkins made an interesting comment today about the Jays new skill development coaches using the example of making Brandon Drury the best 2B he can be, which might be nothing or might mean they're ready to move on from Devon Travis - Travis could be non-tendered, if this is the way they want to go and Drury was brought in by the new regime. It will also be interesting to see if Russell Martin is really a backup catcher/utility infielder now.

If Solarte/Diaz/Travis being gone clears out the IF backlog, next would be the OF where they have the uninspiring #### sandwich of Randal Grichuk, Kevin Pillar, Teoscar Hernandez, Billy McKinney, Anthony Alford, Dalton Pompey and Dwight Smith Jr.   Grichuk and Pillar are pretty established as league average guys, though I'd love to see them move on from Pillar. Teoscar and Mckinney have nice upside in their bats but not sure either one is an everyday player.

Alford didn't really progress this year but in theory could be the best of all of them. Pompey got suspended for arguing with coaches in the minor leagues and it just feels like he's done but he somehow stayed on the 40-man roster.

Cavan Biggio is working as an OF in the fall league, hes the least likely to stick of the 4 2nd generation Jays prospects but maybe he sees super utility as his path.  The other one, Griffin Conine, the Jays 2nd round pick this year was suspended 50 games for ritalin. 

Jays top 10 prospects released today gives the most reason for hope. Top 5 overall system (though only because Vlad is still there).

Vladimir Guerrero, jr, 3B

Bo Bichette, SS

Nate Pearson, RHP - consistently hitting 100+ in the fall league - you'll notice I didn't bother talking about the Jays big league pitching staff :sadbanana:

Danny Jansen, C

Kevin Smith, IF

Eric Pardinho, RHP

Sean Reid-Foley, RHP

Anthony Alford, OF

Jordan Groshans, SS/3B

T.J. Zeuch, RHP

 
Northern Voice said:
Some mildly interesting offseason stuff.

The Aledmys Diaz for Trent Thornton trade isn't a big one but it gives a bit of an idea of what the Jays are thinking of for next year's roster by moving Diaz to make room for Gurriel to play every day, with maybe some Richard Urena and eventually Bo Bichette.  Solarte is expected to be non-tendered to clear out the gap further.

Ross Atkins made an interesting comment today about the Jays new skill development coaches using the example of making Brandon Drury the best 2B he can be, which might be nothing or might mean they're ready to move on from Devon Travis - Travis could be non-tendered, if this is the way they want to go and Drury was brought in by the new regime. It will also be interesting to see if Russell Martin is really a backup catcher/utility infielder now.

If Solarte/Diaz/Travis being gone clears out the IF backlog, next would be the OF where they have the uninspiring #### sandwich of Randal Grichuk, Kevin Pillar, Teoscar Hernandez, Billy McKinney, Anthony Alford, Dalton Pompey and Dwight Smith Jr.   Grichuk and Pillar are pretty established as league average guys, though I'd love to see them move on from Pillar. Teoscar and Mckinney have nice upside in their bats but not sure either one is an everyday player.

Alford didn't really progress this year but in theory could be the best of all of them. Pompey got suspended for arguing with coaches in the minor leagues and it just feels like he's done but he somehow stayed on the 40-man roster.

Cavan Biggio is working as an OF in the fall league, hes the least likely to stick of the 4 2nd generation Jays prospects but maybe he sees super utility as his path.  The other one, Griffin Conine, the Jays 2nd round pick this year was suspended 50 games for ritalin. 

Jays top 10 prospects released today gives the most reason for hope. Top 5 overall system (though only because Vlad is still there).

Vladimir Guerrero, jr, 3B

Bo Bichette, SS

Nate Pearson, RHP - consistently hitting 100+ in the fall league - you'll notice I didn't bother talking about the Jays big league pitching staff :sadbanana:

Danny Jansen, C

Kevin Smith, IF

Eric Pardinho, RHP

Sean Reid-Foley, RHP

Anthony Alford, OF

Jordan Groshans, SS/3B

T.J. Zeuch, RHP
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Always enjoy your analysis NV.

I read the other day that the Jays are expected to be one of the worst teams this year.  Sounds like Vlad Jr. may be the only reason to watch. Heard rumours that the Stro-Sho might be leaving town and was kind of hopeful. Then, those sort of went away.  I have a bad feeling that Sanchez peaked before the blisters and will never be the same.

 
Now that Superman has been traded, I count 7 players who started with the team last year.  (Including Tepera and Axford on the DL) That's cleaning house 😮

 
I won't miss watching Pillar hacking away at the plate. He made some great defensive plays over the years but it's time for Alford to see what he can do. 

A full year of watching Alford/Grichuk/McKinney/Teoscar and see if any of them are part of the next good Jays team. :thumbup:

 
Grichuk 5/$53 million extension. Breaks down as 12/12/9.3/9.3/9.3, so makes some sense that way in getting a player for the 2021-2023 time period that should be when they're competitive again with some cost certainty and upside.

 
Hopefully shoemaker not out too long. One thing they had was 3 solid starters. Vlad up this week so maybe worth watching some. And Yes galvis is a great addition.

 
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