Pwingles
Footballguy
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***Official Julius Thomas Hype Train*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
Run It Up
Footballguy
Oddly specific, through two weeks JT is tied for 10th overall skill positions (RB/WR/TE) in standard scoring, with the likes of Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Marshall.
I think as a skill position player, as long as the Denver offense stays as high powered as it appears it will then JT will stay a top 30 skill position player, with great upside if he continues to be Peyton's redzone baby.
Hard to put a name to that value.
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Pwingles
Footballguy
In my 12 team standard league i somehow ended up w/ thomas, cam jordan and eifert.
My rbs are bad and lacy my number 2 is dinged. Offered eifert and my rb3 for DMC, was hoping not to have to move either of the other 2, but will if i have to
My RB's are pretty bad as well in a start 2 plus flex with Spiller, D-rich and Vereen. I've got Gronk but the way TE's have been performing nobody is really looking to trade anything worthwhile at the moment. Trying to decide if I should run with Thomas at flex or get what I can in terms of some RB depth.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
JT has exited the atmosphere my friend. There will be no falling back to earth for him, he's a star.Ilov80s said:
cstu
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Not a whole lot of chatter about the TE position coming from the coaching staff. If I could ask them anything, I'd ask them "when will Dreessen be back and what are your plans for him", because that's really the biggest mystery surrounding this team right now. Dreessen's role could have huge implications for Wes Welker (Dreessen at in-line means fewer snaps for Welker), Julius Thomas (Dreessen at in-line = fewer snaps for Thomas), Demaryius and Decker (Dreessen at in-line means more targets for the outside WRs), the RBs (Dreessen at in-line = better running lanes for everyone)... there would be a pretty noticeable offensive shift across-the-board depending on who is taking the bulk of the snaps at TE in 3-WR sets.Badgers Fan said:
I think it's reasonable to speculate that Dreessen's return is going to cost Thomas some snaps. I don't know how many, but I'd be surprised if he's still playing 100% of the offensive snaps once Joel gets back. I also think it's reasonable to say that Julius has played well enough that he's unlikely to be relegated to the Jacob Tamme 2012 role no matter what happens with Dreessen.
Thomas' production will not be impacted by Dreesen's return. Again listen to the signals that Peyton has been sending.
He wont play 100% of the snaps but he will play 100% of the snaps that matter to his production
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I actually didn't mean JT, I think he is a top 4 TE this year. I was referring to his comment about TE being difficult to trade now since so many guys have blown up over the first 2 weeks. I think a few of them will level off and leave teams in need.
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
slightly OT, but it's a little odd how little love Cameron is getting compared JT. Fewer TDs, but more catches and yards. He's actually ahead of JT in at least one of my PPR leagues.
I own both in multiple leagues so I don't care, but it seems odd that JTs trade value is clearly ahead of Jordan's.
I own both in multiple leagues so I don't care, but it seems odd that JTs trade value is clearly ahead of Jordan's.
Coach3K
Footballguy
I think it's largely a function of situation. Cameron has Weeden and/or Campbell throwing to him, with a newly-returned Gordon to possibly take looks away from him (or open up some underneath routes for him...it may just end up being a net wash, once both factors come into play).
Thomas is in a much more explosive offense with...well, an actual NFL QB. There are certainly more mouths to feed, but Peyton seems to look for JT a lot, and it looks like he's going to "get his" regardless of the other hungry hippos that need the ball.
I think it'll be a good battle throughout the season, but I think JT pulls away from Cameron by a good 15-20% or more in total production when it's all said and done. Of course, that's just my gut feeling, barring injuries to the principals or other key players. That's why they play the game!
Run It Up
Footballguy
Due to a number of random circumstances, I have Thomas in most of my leagues, but don't have Cameron in a single one. I think I would trade Thomas straight up for Cameron, although the Weeden injury is a little scary.
I would argue that Thomas and Cameron have similar trade value... which is little. In my leagues, it is very hard to get WR or RB value out of TEs or QBs. I've got a few Thomas/Gronkowski combinations and I'm already dreading the offers I'll get for Thomas once Gronk comes back. People just don't have the depth to trade away high performing RBs/WRs for a TE, especially when all but a couple teams are perfectly fine with their current TE.
Position scarcity rears it's ugly head.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
From some of the chatter in this thread, you'd think Dreessen was the greatest blocking TE of all time. The speculation in regards to Dreessen's impact on the entire offense is getting out of hand. I think we all "get" that Dreessen is the better blocking TE of the bunch, but let's bring this discussion back to reality. The reality is that the Broncos are a PASSING offense with Peyton running the show. After a offensively dynamic 2012 season, they added Wes Welker to the mix and now their project TE for the past 2 seasons appears to have blossomed. The 2013 Broncos should be even more dynamic in the PASSING game. I'm not buying the fact that Dreessen's return to health is going to have a major impact on this offense. Dreessen is so good that the Texans allowed him to go. The Texans are a rushing team with only 1 viable receiving threat and relies on TEs in the red zone and they allowed Dreessen to go elsewhere.
It's getting thick in this thread. I'm sure if/when Dreessen returns, he'll be in the gameplan but to expect a "noticeable shift" in offensive philosophy based on this one, semi-insignificant player, is.... well, readiculus!!
dcgangstas
Footballguy
In all candor, I see Dreessen as having zero impact on JT. Thomas is a matchup nightmare that has earned Peyton Manning's trust, and #18 intends to feed him the rock. Whether it's down the seam or the red zone, Thomas is heading for Top 5 TE levels.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I was dozing off in finance class and couldn't help myself. I agree with you and I'm not actually convinced myself that JT is "dud proof". The TE position is super inconsistent, which is one of the reason why players like Graham are so valuable. If JT can put together another solid performance this week, I think I will feel a lot safer calling it a trend. Consistency at this position is key.
Interesting article on the loss of Clady and how it might affect the Bronco's offense:
http://www.milehighreport.com/2013/9/16/4739214/with-ryan-clady-out-how-does-the-broncos-offense-change
With Ryan Clady out, how does the Broncos offense change?By Bronco Mike @Bronco_Mike251 on Sep 16 2013, 8:39p 136
What now?
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Chris Clark capable backup?I don't think so. I want to be so wrong on this front, believe me. Clark is going to get Peyton Manning hit, that's a guarantee. The only question is how much? This is sort of a game changer. It will greatly affect how we game plan and use personnel and players.
Most of what I remember from Clark's preseason play was ill. There were two different settings however. 1) was with the starters where he looked decent. 2) was with other backups where they almost got Osweiler killed. It will help to have Zane Beadles on his side of the line and Manny Ramirez has looked pretty good at center.
The silver lining through all of this is that Clark spent the entire preseason as the starter with Ryan Clady nursing his offseason shoulder surgery. Both he and the other fellahs on the line have familiarity with each other which should help the transition a bit.
My nervousness with the situation isn't so much with change, it is with Clark's skillset and his problem dealing with athletic or powerful pass rushers.
Less Wes?Part of solving any potential protection issues that may come from Clark at LT will be more extensive use of 12 personnel groups. Both Julius Thomas and Virgil Green will be in the game. On the one hand, things can become very interesting and I foresee some usage of one of them in the backfield as that "H" back Aaron Hernandez type TE (minus the murder---um allegedly).
The Broncos went to the 2-TE look in the 2nd half of their game against the Giants and it worked well. The Broncos can theoretically run their entire offense out of 12 personnel (if I know anything about the Manning passing game) with some slight tweaks.
This means (however) that Wes will see less snaps, unless.....
Can Welker be swapped for Decker and can the Broncos take a page or two from the NE playbook circa last year? Thomas is certainly a viable receiving threat, the key to this idea will be the Broncos trusting Virgil to be one as well. We shall see.
More max protect?In certain situations against capable opponents I would. What I'm talking about here is having both the RB and TE in the shotgun to protect as Manning tries to find the open target. It takes away some receiving threats though.
Less shots downfield?It's not as if Manning is sitting back there launching balls down the field most of the time. Our passing game relies on precision short and intermediate concepts that look to exploit the coverage underneath and the shell over the top. Duh? Right? Well the deep passing game relies on exploiting favorable one on one matchups. You will almost always see Manning go downfield if he knows DT has single coverage (or Decker/Caldwell for that matter).
Well, if the Broncos are playing more 12 personnel with more protection, means less targets to cover, which means more bodies to double the receivers that are running patterns. That is only one part of the equation.
The other being can Manning trust his protection to hold up if he's going to take a 5 or 7 step drop and try to take some shots downfield? Less time + less targets + more rolled coverages = less downfield shots. Unless....
Running game takes off?I teased it earlier. The Broncos went to 12 personnel in the 2nd half and their running game got better. One of Knowshon's TD runs was beautifully set up by some stellar blocking from Virgil Green. Perhaps more usage of the 2 TE set will help the running game become more consistent causing the linebackers to step up more, safeties to peek their heads into the offensive backfield, and get totally screwed when Manning keeps it off playaction and hits someone deep downfield.
The downfield passing game will now hinge on whether or not Chris Clark can hold up decently against the rush and whether or not the running game can be a more consistent and potent weapon.
Clady's injury a blessing in disguise?I'm really trying to look at the glass half full here folks. Peyton Manning has played fantastically for two games, but I'll be completely honest with you. I do not want to see him throwing the rock 40 times a game all season. I think he needs to manage his "pitch count" to keep his arm fresh for a Super Bowl run, and I think the only way to accomplish that is by our running game becoming more of a weapon as opposed to an afterthought.
Clady going down will give the Broncos ample opportunity to improve their ground game. The potency of our offense going forward as well as our quest for the Lombardi will depend on it.
What are your thoughts MHR?
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http://www.milehighreport.com/2013/9/16/4739214/with-ryan-clady-out-how-does-the-broncos-offense-change
With Ryan Clady out, how does the Broncos offense change?By Bronco Mike @Bronco_Mike251 on Sep 16 2013, 8:39p 136
What now?
TWEET (9) SHARE (6) 136COMMENTS ⋆REC (6)
Chris Clark capable backup?I don't think so. I want to be so wrong on this front, believe me. Clark is going to get Peyton Manning hit, that's a guarantee. The only question is how much? This is sort of a game changer. It will greatly affect how we game plan and use personnel and players.
Most of what I remember from Clark's preseason play was ill. There were two different settings however. 1) was with the starters where he looked decent. 2) was with other backups where they almost got Osweiler killed. It will help to have Zane Beadles on his side of the line and Manny Ramirez has looked pretty good at center.
The silver lining through all of this is that Clark spent the entire preseason as the starter with Ryan Clady nursing his offseason shoulder surgery. Both he and the other fellahs on the line have familiarity with each other which should help the transition a bit.
My nervousness with the situation isn't so much with change, it is with Clark's skillset and his problem dealing with athletic or powerful pass rushers.
Less Wes?Part of solving any potential protection issues that may come from Clark at LT will be more extensive use of 12 personnel groups. Both Julius Thomas and Virgil Green will be in the game. On the one hand, things can become very interesting and I foresee some usage of one of them in the backfield as that "H" back Aaron Hernandez type TE (minus the murder---um allegedly).
The Broncos went to the 2-TE look in the 2nd half of their game against the Giants and it worked well. The Broncos can theoretically run their entire offense out of 12 personnel (if I know anything about the Manning passing game) with some slight tweaks.
This means (however) that Wes will see less snaps, unless.....
Can Welker be swapped for Decker and can the Broncos take a page or two from the NE playbook circa last year? Thomas is certainly a viable receiving threat, the key to this idea will be the Broncos trusting Virgil to be one as well. We shall see.
More max protect?In certain situations against capable opponents I would. What I'm talking about here is having both the RB and TE in the shotgun to protect as Manning tries to find the open target. It takes away some receiving threats though.
Less shots downfield?It's not as if Manning is sitting back there launching balls down the field most of the time. Our passing game relies on precision short and intermediate concepts that look to exploit the coverage underneath and the shell over the top. Duh? Right? Well the deep passing game relies on exploiting favorable one on one matchups. You will almost always see Manning go downfield if he knows DT has single coverage (or Decker/Caldwell for that matter).
Well, if the Broncos are playing more 12 personnel with more protection, means less targets to cover, which means more bodies to double the receivers that are running patterns. That is only one part of the equation.
The other being can Manning trust his protection to hold up if he's going to take a 5 or 7 step drop and try to take some shots downfield? Less time + less targets + more rolled coverages = less downfield shots. Unless....
Running game takes off?I teased it earlier. The Broncos went to 12 personnel in the 2nd half and their running game got better. One of Knowshon's TD runs was beautifully set up by some stellar blocking from Virgil Green. Perhaps more usage of the 2 TE set will help the running game become more consistent causing the linebackers to step up more, safeties to peek their heads into the offensive backfield, and get totally screwed when Manning keeps it off playaction and hits someone deep downfield.
The downfield passing game will now hinge on whether or not Chris Clark can hold up decently against the rush and whether or not the running game can be a more consistent and potent weapon.
Clady's injury a blessing in disguise?I'm really trying to look at the glass half full here folks. Peyton Manning has played fantastically for two games, but I'll be completely honest with you. I do not want to see him throwing the rock 40 times a game all season. I think he needs to manage his "pitch count" to keep his arm fresh for a Super Bowl run, and I think the only way to accomplish that is by our running game becoming more of a weapon as opposed to an afterthought.
Clady going down will give the Broncos ample opportunity to improve their ground game. The potency of our offense going forward as well as our quest for the Lombardi will depend on it.
What are your thoughts MHR?
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moleculo
Footballguy
it's not a function of adding Dreessen, it's removing Clady.
I've seen this play before - promising TE production is limited because the TE has to stay in and block, because the tackle play is subpar.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Well, that's an entirely different argument. My post was aimed directly at posters who think Dreessen is going to change the offense.
The injury to Clady was never mentioned in the post I was replying to.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
The thought process here is..
Clady's abscense -> increased need to protect Peyton/supplement Clark (Clady's replacement) -> increased need to put your best blocking TE on the field (Dreessen).
The arguments are interconnected.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Lets jump ahead a few weeks. Lets assume Thomas survives Clady's injury and the Great Dreessen Resurgence of '13 and continues to produce like a stud.
How much will this guy be worth in dynasty? Right now there's still some weariness (and rightfully so). You're getting lots of deserved second-guessing and reserved comments.
But the reality is that there's been a hopeful hype train built around this guy since he was drafted. He finally lives up to the hype and produces like a stud, and people want to say he's an average athlete? He's just in a good situation? Come on. He's talented. He was raw, but talented. That's why people have been calling him a possible breakout star at TE since he was drafted.
So what are the odds this guy takes the mantle of "#3 dynasty TE" now that Hernadez is gone, and lives on his own tier for a few years?
How much will this guy be worth in dynasty? Right now there's still some weariness (and rightfully so). You're getting lots of deserved second-guessing and reserved comments.
But the reality is that there's been a hopeful hype train built around this guy since he was drafted. He finally lives up to the hype and produces like a stud, and people want to say he's an average athlete? He's just in a good situation? Come on. He's talented. He was raw, but talented. That's why people have been calling him a possible breakout star at TE since he was drafted.
So what are the odds this guy takes the mantle of "#3 dynasty TE" now that Hernadez is gone, and lives on his own tier for a few years?
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I most certainly did not miss out on JT. I had him ranked the highest of any staffer in dynasty all summer long (for most of the time, Bloom was the only other staff member who even had Thomas ranked). I was drafting him as a last-round flyer in redraft leagues as early as June this year (back when Tamme and Dreessen were both healthy). I own him in 75% of my leagues. I'm the furthest thing from a hater you're going to find.
I'm just trying to be realistic. Joel Dreessen's return will cut into Thomas' playing time, it's just a question of how much. People can roll their eyes all they want and act like Dreessen's a scrub, but Dreessen fills a different role in the offense than Thomas, and it's a role that Denver is going to want to rely on from time to time. There's a reason Denver gave Dreessen $3 million a year despite his limitations as a receiver. When Dreessen is healthy, Thomas isn't going to be in on 100% of the offensive snaps anymore.
Of course, who knows when Dreessen will actually be back. The last report we've heard on him came back in early August and said he should be ready by the start of the regular season.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
#3 is higher than I'm going to be willing to take him. I've got Witten there, and when Witten starts to get downgraded for age, I've got Eifert waiting at #4 and giving me no reason to think I was overrating him. I also think it'll be hard for Thomas to pass Jared Cook, provided Cook keeps producing. I do think that there's a very good chance that Thomas is my #5 dynasty TE by the end of the season, though. Gronk, Graham, Eifert, Cook, Thomas- in that order.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Has Anarchy checked in to tell us about how he used to be a staffer and anyone who likes JT is stupid and can't do projections like he used to?
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Good article.
So what I gather from this is that Welker, assuming Decker continues to operate as the X receiver, predicts to be the most (negatively) impacted player if we start seeing more 2 TE sets. There wasn't much mention of JT in that article, just the fact the Green has been used primarily as a blocker and that Tamme has been essentially relegated to special teams.
Bob Barker
Footballguy
That says the may use 2 TEs more and replace Welker. That could lead to more targets for J. Thomas as he is the best receiving TE and would mainly only have to compete with D. Thomas and Decker for looks with Welker out
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
I'm not sure about replacing Wes, but I could definitely see more 2 TE sets. One blocking, one running quick hitches, and short to intermediate routes with a guy like Welker in the slot doing the same.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
all depends on what denver want s to do
I doubt they will be singling anyone up on Suggs type players any more, or how good Clark is, is he an above replacement level player?
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
No. Clark received most of the snaps this preseason at left tackle. Looking back at SF/SEA preseason games you saw the left side of the OL struggle without Clady.
Clark is average at best.
Badgers Fan
Footballguy
Seems like it may not affect JT much, if at all. I wonder if 65-75 rec is now possible, considering Welker may be off the field more.
Thanks Cecil, awesome as usual
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Obviously how the rest of the season goes will effect this greatly, but I could see Cook/Cameron/Thomas being the group that fights it out to be on that same tier with Eifert, underneath Graham/Gronk but above everyone else. With the older win-now options in Witten/V. Davis coming next.
Cook is going to have to prove to be very consistent though, and that's already arisen as a question.
For the more visual learners among us, this is what I meant it could look like after this season:
Graham/Gronk
Thomas
Eifert
Cook/Cameron
Witten/Davis
...
cstu
Footballguy
Thomas had a quiet 2nd half - the TD was his only target after they switched to 2 TE.Seems like it may not affect JT much, if at all. I wonder if 65-75 rec is now possible, considering Welker may be off the field more.
Thanks Cecil, awesome as usual
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Sound the alarm.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
The greatest blocking TE in the history of the NFL is set to return! Be careful guys, Dreessen's return is going to cause a MAJOR shift in the Denver offense. This guy is the Teddy Bruschi of TEs. In other words, he's superman, able to block an entire defensive line with one arm tied behind his back.
Sorry, I couldn't help myself.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
People who think it's crazy to suggest that Julius Thomas might see his playing time hurt by the return of Joel Dreessen should realize that, on about 30% of its offensive snaps, Denver takes Wes Welker off the field and replaces him with Virgil Green. Wes Welker is a better player than Julius Thomas, and Virgil Green is a worse player than Joel Dreessen. Giving Dreessen snaps at the expense of Thomas might not make sense from a fantasy standpoint, but the Denver Broncos don't run their offense like a fantasy team.Rhythmdoctor said:The greatest blocking TE in the history of the NFL is set to return! Be careful guys, Dreessen's return is going to cause a MAJOR shift in the Denver offense. This guy is the Teddy Bruschi of TEs. In other words, he's superman, able to block an entire defensive line with one arm tied behind his back.SameSongNDance said:
Sorry, I couldn't help myself.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
And the trend is complete.
Amused to Death
Footballguy
I would really like Anarchy to come back and give us his updated projections for all the Broncos.
