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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)


Asked about peace talks with Ukraine, Putin indicated he won't discuss surrendering territory annexed from Ukraine and appeared confident Russia’s army could advance further. “Holding negotiations now only because they are running out of ammunition is absurd for us.”
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Agreed, and we make that point. Ammunition, manpower, and fortifications are interrelated and all need to be addressed. But personnel losses have not been adequately replaced since the fall, and officials and commanders told us that manpower had become the more acute problem.
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Russian MOD just published this video of hitting Ukrainian helicopters in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s ability for quick targeting powered by drone surveillance is clearly improving.
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Over 60 drones were spotted overnight and this morning across different regions of Russia. Drone attacks have been reported in Ryazan, Voronezh, Bryansk, Kursk, Leningrad, and Belgorod regions. This makes the largest drone attack deep inside Russia so far
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Ukraine strikes oil refineries deep inside Russia

Kyiv aims to ‘deprive the enemy of resources and reduce the flow of oil money and fuel’
www.ft.com www.ft.com

Ukraine has stepped up drone strikes on oil refineries deep inside Russia, in what officials depict as an intensifying effort to hit the country’s economy.
In the second consecutive day of assaults on Russian energy infrastructure, explosions were confirmed on sites in the country’s heartlands such as Ryazan, Kstovo and Kirishi — all hundreds of kilometres away from the border with Ukraine.
A Ukrainian official with knowledge of the attacks said the state security service used drones overnight in “a series of special operations against enemy oil refineries”.
The official added that Ukraine was “systematically implementing a detailed strategy . . . to deprive the enemy of resources and reduce the flow of oil money and fuel”.
Kyiv and Moscow have both stepped up drone attacks in recent months as Ukrainian forces struggle to repel their better-armed Russian foes on the battlefield.
The Russian defence ministry claimed to have shot down more than 60 Ukrainian drones.
But videos posted on Russian social media showed several Ukrainian drones bypassing air defences and causing explosions.
Another Ukrainian official said Wednesday’s attack had caused “quite significant” damage on the targeted refineries.
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Some more video of the drone attacks: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1767798735378002391
 
www.nytimes.com

‘Jamming’: How Electronic Warfare Is Reshaping Ukraine’s Battlefields

Drones have become a critical weapon for both sides, but a lack of coordination among troops has put Ukraine at a disadvantage.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

The Ukrainian soldier swore and tore off his headset. His video monitor had gone blurry at first, the landscape of shattered trees and shell craters barely visible, before blacking out completely. The Russians had jammed the signal of his drone as it was flying outside the town of Kreminna in eastern Ukraine.
“Some days everything goes smoothly, other days the equipment breaks, the drones are fragile and there is jamming,” said the soldier, who goes by the call sign DJ and was speaking from his underground outpost a few miles from the front line.
For a while, the Ukrainians enjoyed a honeymoon period with their self-detonating drones that were used like homemade missiles. The weapons seemed like an effective alternative to artillery shells for striking Russian forces.
Now, the bad days are starting to outweigh the good ones: electronic countermeasures have become one of the Russian military’s most formidable weapons after years of honing their capabilities.
Electronic warfare remains a hidden hand in much of the war, and like Ukraine’s disadvantage in troop numbers and ammunition supplies, Ukraine suffers in this area as well in comparison to Russia. Russia has more jamming equipment capable of overpowering Ukrainian signals by broadcasting on the same frequencies at higher power. It also exhibits better coordination among their units.
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Interviews with Ukrainian soldiers, commanders and military analysts say that Russia’s jamming capabilities are straining Ukraine’s limited supplies of off-the-shelf drones and threatening to sideline a key component of Ukraine’s arsenal as the Kremlin mass produces its own fleet of drones.
Ukrainian troops describe a back and forth dance where one side makes technological changes — such as using different frequencies or jamming devices for drones — then the other side catches up in a matter of weeks or months, undercutting any short-lived advantage.
“There is a constant arms race,” said Babay, a sergeant in charge of a drone platoon on Ukraine’s eastern front, who, like DJ and others interviewed for this article, went by his call sign, as is military protocol. “We are improving our technology to counter these new realities on the battlefield, and in a while, the Russians will again have to invent something new to be able to defend themselves against our attacks.”
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Artillery’s strength often comes from its imprecision. By blanketing wide areas with high explosives and fragmentation, it can quickly disrupt battlefield operations by maiming troops and destroying vehicles. It’s a tactic that is near impossible to replicate with one or two drones.
As Ukraine’s artillery ammunition dwindled last fall and into the winter, the FPVs, used as guided projectiles, were effective in suppressing and harassing Russian trenches and vehicles. Precious artillery ammo was reserved to push back Russian ground attacks.
But the Russian military has since improved its jamming capabilities and also uses poor weather to its advantage, advancing in fog and rain when drones have difficulty flying.
“Both sides have quickly picked up on their adversary’s key FPV developments and tactics,” said Samuel Bendett, an expert on Russian military drones at the Center for Naval Analyses, a research organization based in Virginia. “And now these technologies are maturing very rapidly for both sides.”
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Though potent, the Russian military’s jamming capabilities are deployed unevenly across the more than 600 miles of frontline, and their armored vehicles are often easy targets because they usually don’t have jamming systems installed, Ukrainian soldiers said.
Ukraine’s approach to drones and electronic warfare has been funded and supplied in part by disparate groups outside of the military, including the country’s well-known IT sector. Each drone unit on the battlefield serves as a sort of test lab for new technologies, procurement and combat missions.
Russia’s approach has been far more top down, with heavy military oversight. This has made the country’s drone fleet more predictable, with less variation in tactics and type. But it has also allowed the Russian military to jam Ukrainian drones on the battlefield without having to jam their own, by coordinating between flight paths and the jammers.
“There is nothing like that on the Ukrainian side,” said one drone operator flying for Ukraine.
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The lack of a broader command structure capable of coordinating drone units across the frontline often translates to confusion among Ukrainian troops. Drone operators can sometimes lose connection with their craft and end up looking through the camera of another drone.
FPV drones fly on an analog frequency, and since many are store bought, they come out of the box set to the same frequency. Ukrainian drone units often need soldiers who are skilled in coding to change the frequency on a drone’s software.
Dev, a Ukrainian drone technician, rated this issue second in significance to Russian jamming capabilities.
“There are many FPV groups operating at the front. The front is saturated with FPV groups, and there are no more frequency channels,” he said.
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Chef, a drone company commander in Ukraine’s east, said his unit flies about 20-30 FPV missions a day, depending on their supply of the drones, which comes almost entirely from volunteer donations. The government has barely supplied his unit, he said. Last July, they received a handful of them, and then again in December.
“We launch as many as we produce,” he said. But “you can’t just use FPVs to win this war.”
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Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said on Wednesday Russia was gearing up for a "long conflict with the West" and he asked for more spending and coordination on European defence.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in remarks published on Wednesday that Finland and Sweden's entry into NATO was "a meaningless step" and that Russia will deploy troops and systems of destruction to the Finnish border after Finland joins the alliance.
Orpo told the European Parliament: "Russia is evidently preparing for a long conflict with the West and represents a permanent and essential military threat to Europe."
"If we, as a united Europe, fail to respond sufficiently to this challenge, the coming years will be filled with danger and the looming threat of attack,"
Orpo, whose country neighbours Russia, urged the 27-country EU to step up defence spending and said the bloc had to take care of its own defence.
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Outgunned Ukrainian troops fighting Russian forces will start to receive artillery rounds in the "foreseeable future" under a Czech initiative to source shells to plug Ukraine's ammunition shortage, Kyiv's top diplomat said on Wednesday.
"This week, we are going to contact our Czech colleagues, when they will introduce a detailed supply plan on how this is going to work," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told a news conference in Kyiv.
The delivery of the shells under the initiative will be staggered over the year and initial deliveries "will not take many months", he said. Work was under way to secure funding for similar other initiatives, he added.
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www.rferl.org

Ukraine's New War Strategy: Dig In, Hold On, Find More Soldiers, Hope For U.S. Weaponry

Russia is advancing. Ukraine is rushing to dig defenses. New U.S weapons aren’t expected soon. Ukraine’s military needs men. The government doesn’t want new mobilization. Things are looking grim on the battlefield these days.
www.rferl.org www.rferl.org

"It's quite bad actually," said Konrad Muzyka, a Polish-based defense analyst who visited several locations in Ukraine near the front lines last week.

"The Ukrainians are absolutely in no position to significantly degrade Russian forward momentum," he told RFE/RL. "The Russians will slowly but steadily capture new villages and settlements. It definitely will not be blitzkrieg. But I think it's fair to say that…currently the Ukrainians are at the weakest, probably since mid-2022."
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foreignpolicy.com

The U.S. Military Is Running Short on Ammunition—and So Is Ukraine

If Congress fails to pass a national security supplemental funding bill, Ukraine will be getting fewer bullets.
foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com

The U.S. Army will be forced to cut its artillery production target by more than a quarter if Congress fails to pass the national security supplemental that provides military aid to Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel as well as weapons to replenish U.S. stockpiles, military officials said on Tuesday.
“Bottom line is that short of the supplement that we will end up hitting a ceiling,” said Maj. Gen. Joe Hilbert, the Army’s director of force development, in a briefing on Tuesday. “Without the supplemental, we will cap out at about 72,000 [rounds] a month.”
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“We’ve got two issues in terms of defense budgets,” said Jeb Nadaner, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for industrial policy. “One is the orders you place, in a year’s budget. But the other one is, can the industrial base produce it? And the base is really creaky.”
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“China, North Korea, Iran, Russia—they don’t have many problems producing things out of their defense industrial base. They are producing unbelievable quantities,” said Nadaner, the former U.S. defense official. “If you look at the United States and its allies, we can’t produce enough shells, we can’t produce enough ships, we can’t produce enough submarines. The system can’t produce much.”
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Incredible Macron quote in this Le Monde article from a private meeting: "in any case, in the coming year I'll need to send some guys [soldiers] to Odesa"

Said a few days before the press conference where Macron refused to rule out sending troops
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The new assistance package also includes additional shorter-range ATACMS missiles, an administration official said. That version of the weapon has a range of about 100 miles and is armed with cluster munitions.
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Ukraine has also been pushing the Pentagon to provide long-range ATACMS missiles, which have a range of more than 180 miles and could add to Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian forces in Crimea, U.S. officials said.
Pentagon officials had previously insisted the U.S. military needed to retain all of its longer-range ATACMS to meet its own military requirements. But the Pentagon is now open to providing the longer-range ATACMS because of progress in acquiring a follow-on system dubbed the Precision Strike Missile, U.S. officials say.
That removes a major impediment to providing the long-range variant of the missile, though officials declined to say whether Biden will send the system.
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The Czech Republic, once part of a Soviet satellite state and with little sympathy for Russia’s efforts to restore its lost empire, is one of Ukraine’s most ardent supporters. By activating relations dating back to the Cold War, it has sourced around 800,000 artillery shells from a diverse coalition of suppliers spanning the globe and identified another 700,000 that could be secured with extra funds.
The shells include 300,000 Soviet-standard shells and around 500,000 Western-made rounds, to be delivered in batches by the end of the year. More shells will be available as funding comes in, the Czech government said. Altogether, Czech officials say around 3 billion euros, equivalent to $3.3 billion, would secure around 1.5 million shells—a fraction of the $60 billion aid package for Ukraine now stranded in the U.S. congress.
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The officials are coy about where the shells are coming from but say suppliers include some allies of Russia. By contrast, similar entreaties by the U.S. and Western Europeans to potential suppliers in Africa, Asia and Latin America have been rebuffed, according to Western officials.
NATO and EU officials have publicly backed the Czech initiative in recent days. Germany has so far pledged over €500 million, which is by far the largest commitment of all participants, Czech officials said.
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So far, the Czech Republic has secured funding for the first tranche of around 300,000 shells. Among the donors are Germany, Canada, the Netherlands and Denmark. The U.S. isn’t part of the buyers’ club at this stage.
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apnews.com

South Korean defense chief says North Korea has supplied 7,000 containers of munitions to Russia

North Korea has shipped around 7,000 containers filled with munitions and other military equipment to Russia since last year to help support its war in Ukraine.
apnews.com apnews.com

North Korea has shipped around 7,000 containers filled with munitions and other military equipment to Russia since last year to help support its war in Ukraine, South Korea’s defense minister said Monday.

Shin Won-sik shared the assessment at a news conference hours after the South Korean and Japanese militaries said the North fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles into its eastern waters, adding to a streak of weapons displays amid growing tensions with rivals.
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During a news conference in Seoul, Shin said the South Korean military believes the North, after initially relying on ships, has been increasingly using its rail networks to send arms supplies to Russia through their land border.

In exchange for sending possibly several million artillery shells and other supplies, North Korea has received more than 9,000 Russian containers likely filled with aid, Shin said. He raised suspicions that Russia could be providing North Korea with fuel, possibly in defiance of U.N. Security Council sanctions that tightly cap the country’s imports of oil and petroleum products.
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www.thetimes.co.uk

Ukraine digs in with dragon’s teeth as Russia’s glide bombs take toll

Improvised Russian bombs are devastating the front, but troops hope new network of defences will stave off any advances
www.thetimes.co.uk www.thetimes.co.uk

Along the road to Kupiansk, where the booms of artillery echo and smoke rises in the air, Lemur, an infantryman, gives his bleak assessment of the battle.
“F***ing awful,” he says, glancing back in the direction where the Russian army is trying to break through. “We can barely hold the line, let alone move forward. We are losing so many people, there are so many bodies we can’t even bring them all back.”
Ever since the fall last month of Avdiivka, the first new Ukrainian town Russia has taken since the early months of the invasion, fear has coursed through frontline communities about where the Russians will strike next.
Having failed in last year’s counteroffensive to press through Russia’s heavily fortified defences, Ukraine is now building its own long lines of deep trenches, mines and “dragon’s teeth” to ensnare tanks that might try to break through and regain recaptured territory that the Russians held in the first year of full-scale war.
But as they do so, Ukrainian soldiers have been confronted by a new and dangerous menace: so-called glide bombs, modified Soviet-era bombs retrofitted with smart wings to turn them into guided missiles.
Dropped from aircraft operating over Russian-controlled territory, they represent a lethal new threat against which Ukraine is poorly equipped to fight, however strongly if slowly it is fortifying its frontlines.
Kupiansk, which was occupied by the Russians for more than six months of 2022, is one such place. Five lines of trenches, minefields and dragon’s teeth stretch over two miles behind the frontline where Ukrainian soldiers face off against their Russian adversaries.
While they ought to provide new fighting positions and defences should the Ukrainians fall back, they are no match for the 1,500kg glide bombs decimating frontline troops since their first appearance some three months ago. The extent of their destructive power was powerfully demonstrated in the battle for Avdiivka.
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In an underground bunker outside the town of Lyman, Kostiantyn Vahrameyev, the commander of the National Guard’s Khoryv battalion, surveys a map of the battle zone pointing out where the new Russian efforts to break through are taking place. There are no intricate networks of dragon’s teeth and trenches in this forested area where drones are the trustiest weapon his men can use. “But we cannot win this war with drones alone,” he warns.
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Vahrameyev worries less about the Russian conquest of a few miles of open farmland than he does about the capture of towns like Avdiivka. “It is so much harder to take back a town,” he says. “There are buildings, there are basements to fight from. And attack is much much harder than defence.”
Russia scored a major symbolic victory when it captured Bakhmut last year. Now it has turned its sights on Chasiv Yar, the next town to the west which opens the way to Kramatorsk and beyond.
“The situation there is really bad and getting worse every day,” says Vitaliy Ovcharenko, a special forces officer stationed there.
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www.bbc.com

Ukraine war: Grant Shapps 'abandoned Odesa trip over security threat'

The defence secretary was warned the Kremlin was aware of his travel plans, reports say.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

Grant Shapps aborted a trip to southern Ukraine last week for "security reasons", the UK defence ministry said.

The defence secretary had to scrap his visit to Odesa last week after UK intelligence reportedly warned Russia had become aware of his travel plans.

Mr Shapps was due to travel to Odesa a day after a missile hit the city while the Ukrainian president and the Greek prime minister were visiting.

Five people were killed in the strike, Ukrainian authorities said.

Mr Shapps had travelled on an overnight train from Poland to Ukraine, accompanied by chief of the defence staff, Adm Sir Tony Radakin, and a small team of British officials. The aim of their journey was to meet Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky and senior members of his wartime administration.

But having arrived in Kyiv on 7 March, Mr Shapps's onward journey to Odesa was cancelled abruptly at the last minute, following fears surrounding his safety.

According to the Sunday Times, which had a reporter travelling with his delegation, the trip was called off after an intelligence update revealed the Kremlin's knowledge of it.

It added that the strike in Odesa the previous day raised the threat level to Mr Shapps's safety from substantial to critical.
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kyivindependent.com

Authorities have uncovered nearly 400 networks aiding draft evaders since start of war

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, law enforcement agencies have uncovered nearly 400 criminal networks that help individuals evade military service by aiding them in fleeing abroad, a spokesperson for Ukraine's State Border Guard Service announced on March 17.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, law enforcement agencies have uncovered nearly 400 criminal networks that help individuals evade military service by aiding them in fleeing abroad, a spokesperson for Ukraine's State Border Guard Service announced on March 17.
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kyivindependent.com

Prosecutor General's Office: Over 128,000 victims of war crimes recorded in Ukraine

Ukraine has collected pretrial information on over 128,000 victims of war crimes, Veronika Plotnikova, the head of the Coordinating Center for Support of Victims and Witnesses of the Prosecutor Generals Office, said on air on March 18.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com

Ukraine has collected pretrial information on over 128,000 victims of war crimes, Veronika Plotnikova, the head of the Coordinating Center for Support of Victims and Witnesses of the Prosecutor General's Office, said on air on March 18.
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themeistersinger said:
US Army instructors say Ukrainian soldiers were 'amazing' at mastering the Patriots they've used to shoot down Putin's overhyped missiles
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It struck me the other day. Russia, China, etc tend to tell the world that the military equipment that they produce does more than it actually does while the US undersells all of it's military equipment capabilities.
 

Ukraine suspects that Russia “purchases satellite imagery [of Ukrainian military objects] through third-party companies” that do business with Western satellite-imagery companies, and that these images “could be used in armed aggression against Ukraine”
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Germany announced new €500mn military aid package for Ukraine that includes 10,000 rounds of ammo from Bundeswehr stocks that'll be sent immediately. It also committed to providing an additional 100,000 155mm shells that it'll begin delivering this year.
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Over the past week, Ukrainian intelligence officers and activists carried out a series of cyber attacks on Russian targets, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reported. Ukrainian hackers targeted not only Russian government agencies, but also businesses sponsoring the war.
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Russians are saying their first FPV use took place in early March 2022. But it wasn't until late spring 2023 that Russian FPV drone use became larger-scale across the front.
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Finland will provide €30 million to procure artillery shells for Ukraine within the Czech initiative.
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I asked USSOUTHCOM Commander, General Richardson (via @alexbward & @AtlanticCouncil), about efforts to source equipment for Ukraine in South America.

She notes that there are 9 countries in her AOR with Soviet/Russian equipment and the US has standing offers to work with them on replacing those stocks with American equipment.

This advances two foreign policy objectives simultaneously. It breaks their dependence on Russia and gets equipment to Ukraine.
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www.politico.eu

Europe’s soldiers keep quitting, just when NATO needs them

Western allies weigh up conscription or national service, as the threat from Russia grows.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu

“Those conversations now exist in all capitals, in all democracies that have professional armies without conscription,” Lecornu said on Monday, mentioning the United Kingdom and the United States.

“At NATO meetings, we can talk about equipment, but now we also talk about ... the level of retention,” he added.
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www.bloomberg.com

EU Drafts Law to Send Russian Central Bank Profits to Ukraine

The European Union has prepared legislation that would see Ukraine start to receive profits generated by frozen Russian sovereign assets as early as July.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

The European Union has prepared legislation that would see Ukraine start to receive profits generated by frozen Russian sovereign assets as early as July.
The proposals, which require the backing of all member states, would apply a windfall tax on profits generated by the immobilized reserves, aiming to use an estimated €3 billion ($3.3 billion) a year to fund the supply of weapons to Ukraine and boost the country’s defense industry, according to draft documents seen by Bloomberg News.
About €260 billion in assets of the Russian central bank, mostly in the form of securities and cash, have been immobilized by Group of Seven nations, the EU and Australia with more than two thirds of those blocked in the EU.
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Russia says it captured Orlivka – DW – 03/19/2024

p.dw.com p.dw.com

Russia's Defense Ministry says its forces have captured the village of Orlivka in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk.

It lies 9.5 kilometers (5.9 miles) northwest of Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces withdrew from the city last month.

Earlier on Tuesday, the Ukrainian General Staff said that Kyiv's forces had repelled nine Russian attacks around Orlivka.
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Thread: https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1770140961059831916

Some brief thoughts following a recent field study trip to Ukraine. The current situation is difficult, but UA is working to stabilize the front. Much depends on whether the US provides support, and UA effectively addresses its manpower issues in the coming months. 1/
The main challenges are manpower, fortifications, and ammunition. These are interrelated problems. There is also the issue of sustainment, which needs to shift towards localization of maintenance, and spare parts production for a diverse park of Western equipment. 2/
Mobilization requires resourcing. Western assistance and UA manpower issues are connected. UA needs funding and training support. However, the lead times to resolve manpower issues are significantly greater than what it will take to ship ammo if the supplemental is passed. 3/
Ukraine needs more infantry in particular, which is not difficult to equip. Battalions end up with few platoons of viable infantry, unable to execute key tasks. Infantry is necessary not just for assault, but to hold the defensive lines and entrenchments which are being built. 4/
Mobilization is not just about changing policies on who is drafted or finding more manpower. It is about addressing terms of service, demobilization, and a host of other issues to stabilize the force. Right now, finding manpower within the force is at best a stopgap measure. 5/
A plan to build nationwide fortifications is being implemented, with a vision of multiple lines and a system of defensive positions/fortified points. The immediate challenge is weak secondary positions behind the forward lines being held by troops at the front. 6/
The AFU is short on artillery ammo & barrels are a growing issue. This is where Western material assistance remains essential. As Congress debates the supplemental, a combination of ammunition deficits and manpower issues, are resulting in Russian gains. 7/
At this point Russia’s fires advantage of 5:1 to 6:1 is significant, but not decisive. The growing problem is a higher rate of glide bomb employment by the Russian VKS, averaging 30-40 per day on parts of the front and from increasingly longer ranges (from 40-55km to 60km+). 8/
Glide bombs are fairly inaccurate, but destructive. They are not a form of close air support. However, they suppress units, destroy buildings, and fortifications. One of the reasons the AFU was pressed from Avdiivka was the concentrated volume of UMPK strikes by Russian VKS. 9/
In 2023, Russia was able to replace its losses, and generate additional combat formations. This means they likely recruited several hundred thousand troops. Though RF has not generated enough to rotate out those initially mobilized in 2022, this was not a priority for Moscow. 10/
The primary limiting factor for Russia is not ammunition or manpower, but likely equipment, and capacity to employ forces at scale (quality). Russian forces can ill afford to throw away an army’s worth of equipment for an offensive like Avdiivka given their replacement rate. 11/
Most of the Russian equipment comes out of storage, slowly eating through its Soviet legacy. While new production is increasing, it is doubtfully more than 20% of replacements. Hence, Russian forces could face growing equipment challenges in 2025-2026 (depending on losses). 12/
Russian forces in some cases are employing T-54/55s, or MT-LBs, for battle taxis to deploy troops in assaults due to a lack of BMPs or more suitable vehicles. This doesn't mean the Russian mil will run out of AFVs anytime soon, but it is illustrative of their constraints. 13/
Conserving equipment for RF means a destruction-centered approach, leveraging fires advantage and pursuing small group (assault group) infantry assaults. This yields incremental gains, but unlikely to generate major breakthroughs (as UA’s own offensive in 2023 demonstrated). 14/
With such tactics Russian forces have been unable to breakthrough in areas where they should be able to advance more easily, like the Robotyne salient south of Orikhiv. But larger offensives, akin to the initial Avdiivka assault, are likely coming this summer and in the fall. 15/
Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian long-range drones is improving, based on a network of sensors, EW systems, and mobile defense groups which now intercept over 40% of such strikes. Cheap forms of strike are steadily being countered by cheap forms of intercept. 16/
Across parts of the front Ukrainian forces fight in a more integrated fashion, combining electronic recon systems, EW, with drone units, in a better synchronized, and information driven approach. In elite units this forms a system. (Example: Madyar's drone unit) 17/
Ukraine is scaling up production of FPV drones, to exceed 1M this year. But basic FPVs are readily countered by EW. The contest is therefore increasingly moving from quantitative to qualitative dimensions. Drone units are differentiated by skill and integration. 18/
At this stage, strike drones offer an offset for artillery ammo deficits (particularly in defensive operations), but are not a replacement for the volume of fire, area of effect, and suppression artillery delivers. Elite unit performance is not reflective of the entire front. 19/
With Western support, a stabilized AFU could hold this year against Russian offensives. This presumes fortifications are established (currently in progress), UA has funding + ammo support, and the manpower problem is addressed by Kyiv in the coming months. 20/
An expanded strike campaign, which I argued with colleagues should be part of the strategy for 2024, is a cost effective way to create challenges for the Russian state. Strikes against Russian energy infrastructure are one example of such a campaign. 21/
Western industrial capacity is increasing. Ukraine's commercial maritime traffic has picked up significantly. If Ukraine can hold through 2024, Russia's current advantage in this war does not necessarily increase, or become decisive, but instead can decrease over time. 22/
However, if difficult political choices are not made in the coming months, Russian advantages will mount. The risk of a Russian breakthrough in the second half of the year rises dramatically. Consequently, along with political will, time is a factor.
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Re: FPV drones & EW -- the CEO of a Ukraine-based UAV producer told me something similar in December. The CEO said the more expensive FPV models do fine against trench/vehicle-borne EW, but the cheaper (& more abundant) FPVs "get smashed."
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Video: https://twitter.com/marcbennetts1/status/1770189545310482710

Russian border villages in the Belgorod region are looking a lot like Ukrainian frontline areas these days ..
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Power outage reported in a number of districts of the Russian city of Kursk after explosions were heard there this evening.

Russian Defense Ministry claimed the interception of a S-200 missile over Kursk Oblast.
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France’s Defense Ministry denies Russian spy chief Sergey Naryshkin’s claim today that Paris is planning to send 2,000 troops to Ukraine in response to the supposed “psychological” trauma of losing so many volunteer fighters to Russia on the battlefield.
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New numbers on #Ukraine from @SecDef today:
- 315,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded since Feb. 2022
- Russia has spent up to $211 billion in Ukraine; war will cost Russia $1.3 trillion by 2026
- Ukraine has sunk, destroyed or damaged 20 Russian Navy vessels
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Security assistance in the US’ most recent aid package for Ukraine began arriving in the country last week, just days after it was announced, a US defense official told CNN on Tuesday. via
@halbritz
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themeistersinger said:
kyivindependent.com

Russia’s war effort may not be as formidable as it looks

Russia’s war machine has shown remarkable stamina despite the hundreds of thousands of troops it is estimated to have lost in Ukraine. But under the hood, it may be less resilient than it looks. With its high oil export revenues, Russia has been able to replace its losses and
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com
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This may be the most Russian thing I have ever heard in my life.
Yudin said that many Russian recruits are aware they could die in a mass banzai charge, but may feel their lives are miserable anyway and joining the military at least gives them a chance to make money.
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US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries

Washington told Kyiv that drone attacks risk driving up crude prices and provoking retaliation
www.ft.com www.ft.com

The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning that the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions.
The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times.
Both intelligence units have steadily expanded their own drone programmes to strike Russian targets on land, sea and in the air since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
One person said that the White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity.
Russia remains one of the world’s most important energy exporters despite western sanctions on its oil and gas sector. Oil prices have risen about 15 per cent this year, to $85 a barrel, pushing up fuel costs just as US President Joe Biden begins his campaign for re-election.
Washington is also concerned that if Ukraine keeps hitting Russian facilities, including many that are hundreds of miles from the border, Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west.
This includes the CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market. Western companies including ExxonMobil and Chevron use the pipeline, which Moscow briefly shut in 2022.
“We do not encourage or enable attacks inside of Russia,” an NSC spokesperson said. The CIA declined to comment. In Kyiv, a spokesperson for the SBU declined to comment. Officials at GUR and Zelenskyy’s office did not respond to requests for comment.
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news.err.ee

EDF: Russia attacks civilian targets to compensate for front line failures

Over the last week, Russia has increased the intensity of its attacks on civilian infrastructure to make up for little success on the front line and its inability to expel Russian resistance fighters, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces' (EDF) Intelligence Center.
news.err.ee news.err.ee

Over the last week, Russia has increased the intensity of its attacks on civilian infrastructure to make up for little success on the front line and its inability to expel Russian resistance fighters, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces' (EDF) Intelligence Center.

"The Russian Federation continues to maintain a high operational tempo in Ukraine and to maintain the initiative on most of the front lines. However, Russia has failed to achieve its objectives and major changes on the front lines have not been achieved," Kiviselg said at a briefing held at the Ministry of Defense on Friday.

"Due to the spillover of fighting into Russian territory, the Russian Armed Forces are currently unable to retake areas invaded by Russian resistance groups, and as a result the Russian Federation has intensified attacks against the civilian population and civilian structures in Ukraine," the intelligence chief added.

At the same time, he said the probability of sabotage and asymmetric military action is increasing in northeastern Ukraine, where Russia aims to sow confusion and cause inconvenience to the civilian population.

Kiviselg said Russia is likely to increase the number of airstrikes against civilian infrastructure in the near future. It hopes to break Ukrainian society's resilience and support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

"The main reason for this is that in recent weeks the Russian Federation has not achieved the expected results on the front lines and there have been no major advances. So they are trying to carry out attacks where they expect to achieve their desired effect, i.e. still attacking civilian infrastructure," the colonel said.

Speaking about the attack on the Zaporizhzhia's hydroelectric dam on Thursday night, Kiviselg said this shows Russia's indiscriminate attack tactics, where see all civilian objects as potential targets.
Click to expand...
 
apnews.com

Russia launches sweeping attack on Ukraine's power sector, a sign of possible escalation

Russia attacked electrical power facilities in much of Ukraine, including the country’s largest hydroelectric plant.
apnews.com apnews.com

Russia attacked electrical power facilities in much of Ukraine, including the country’s largest hydroelectric plant, causing widespread outages and killing at least five people, officials said Friday.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said more than 60 drones and about 90 rockets were used in the attack.

The attack came a day after Russia launched 31 missiles in a single attack on the capital. It was the largest assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the more than two-year-long war, said Volodymyr Kudrytsky, head of the national utility Ukrenergo.

“This attack was especially dangerous because the adversary combined different means of attack, kamikaze drones, ballistic and cruise missiles,” he told The Associated Press. He said the city of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest, suffered the most damage.
Click to expand...

The attacks caused a fire at the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station, which supplies electricity to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power installation.

The main external power line to the plant was cut off, International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi said early Friday, but Ukraine’s nuclear energy operator said it was restored several hours later.

The plant is occupied by Russian troops, and fighting around the plant has been a constant concern because of the potential for a nuclear accident.

The dam at the hydroelectric station was not in danger of breaching, the country’s hydroelectric authority said. A dam breach could not only disrupt supplies to the nuclear plant but could potentially cause severe flooding similar to what occurred last year when a major dam at Kakhovka further down the Dnieper collapsed.

Three people were killed and at least eight injured in the Russian attack, said Zaporizhzhia regional Gov. Ivan Fedorov.
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Video of a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile dispensing flares before striking Ukraine’s largest hydroelectric power plant, the DniproHES hydroelectric dam.
Click to expand...


The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 151 UAVs and missiles this morning including:
-63 Shahed
-12 Iskander-M
-40 Kh-101 / Kh-555
-5 Kh-22
-7 Kinzhal
-2 Kh-59
-22 S-300 / S-400
None of the Iskander-M, Kinzhal, S-300/S-400, or Kh-22 were intercepted
Click to expand...

Video: https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1771176318014460183

Russian volunteers are testing "Osoyed" (Wasp Hunter) CUAS drone that releases a net against an adversary quadcopter.
Click to expand...

www.bloomberg.com

Germany Pledges €300 Million for Czech Ammunition Plan

Germany has pledged to spend €300 million ($326 million) as part of a Czech-led initiative to buy 800,000 rounds of ammunition for Ukraine, according to people familiar with the decision.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

Germany has pledged to spend €300 million ($326 million) as part of a Czech-led initiative to buy 800,000 rounds of ammunition for Ukraine, according to people familiar with the decision.
The amount of money that the government in Berlin is putting on the table would be sufficient to cover the cost of around 180,000 shells, the people said. They declined to be named because the talks are private.
Click to expand...
 

🧐Russia plans to soon mobilize at least 300,000 men operation to encircle/besiege Kharkiv, per @verstka_media, which cites sources in the presidential administration and a top Defense Ministry employee. "Everything is ready for mobilization 2.0." https://verstka.media/kak-vlasti-budut-prizyvat-rossiyan-v-voyska-dlia-nastupleniya-na-harkov
Click to expand...

Video: https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1771158613844713698

Counter-drone warfare: Russia's Lancet drone is targeting Ukrainian ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft twin-barreled cannon - its crew opens fire at the drone. The firing exhaust smoke creates a "cover" that disrupts Lancet's target lock - the drone misses as a result.
Click to expand...


The Ukrainian pilots have completed basic flight, ground and language training in the UK. They will now continue their training in France, where they will receive advanced training before moving on to training on the F-16 aircraft themselves, the UK Ministry of Defence said.
Click to expand...


A group of 10 Ukrainian pilots have completed basic training in the UK to operate F-16s

The group will now move on to advanced training courses conducted by the French Air Force.
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A recent survey by the @ZDF shows that the German population is still strongly supporting #Ukraine. 59% favour increased arms and ammunition deliveries from European countries. 48% are in favour of liberating occupied territories, even if giving them up could end the war.
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kyivindependent.com

Commander: Russia gathers 100,000-strong force, possibly for summer offensive

Russian troops are creating a force of 100,000 soldiers, possibly to conduct an offensive in early summer, Ukraine's Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavliuk said on national television on March 22.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com

Russia is creating a force of 100,000 soldiers, possibly to conduct a new offensive in early summer, Ukraine's Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavliuk said on national television on March 22.

The Armed Forces withdrew in February from several settlements in Donetsk Oblast, including the key front-line city of Avdiivka, due to severe ammunition shortages exacerbated by delays in U.S. aid.

Heavy battles continue in Kherson, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhizhia oblasts as Russian troops try to continue their advance.

Pavliuk noted that the new force Russia is mustering might also serve another purpose: "Maybe they (Russia) will use them to replenish units that are losing their combat capability."

Russian troops continue their assault attempts in the Bakhmut, Lyman, and Avdiivka directions of the front, according to Pavliuk. In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces are not preparing any new military formations but target civilian infrastructure to threaten citizens, he added.

"I think we will do everything we can to stop them (Russian attacks)," Pavliuk said.
Click to expand...

Germany, France oppose issuing bonds from frozen Russian assets' profits, officials say

European Union states including Germany and France are opposed to the idea of issuing bonds to maximise the impact of the planned use of the profits generated by frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine, officials and diplomats said on Friday.
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kyivindependent.com

French army chief: Putin needs to know West could send troops to Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to understand that Western support for Ukraine could extend to troops on the ground, the chief of France’s Armed Forces, General Thierry Burkhard, said on March 21, as reported by AFP.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin needs to understand that Western support for Ukraine could extend to troops on the ground, the chief of France’s Armed Forces, General Thierry Burkhard, said on March 21, as reported by AFP.

Putin “has built his operation on the idea that the West will never go into Ukraine but will simply supply arms,” Burkhard said.

"We have to show him that he will not be able to use this logic to go all the way, because this idea is not right," he added.

"The war in Ukraine concerns us because we are involved in its consequences. Europeans must therefore be capable of taking risks to ensure the security of Europe in the decade to come."
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kyivindependent.com

Media: Czechia sends Ukraine its last Soviet Mi-24 helicopters

This is the third time Czechia has supplied Ukraine with helicopters. Prague sent four Mi-24 helicopters in July 2022 and then sent more in July 2023 without specifying the numbers and models.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com

Czechia provided Ukraine with the last of its Soviet Mi-24 attack helicopters, the Czech media outlet Denik N reported on March 21, citing Czech Defense Minister Jana Cernochova.
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kyivindependent.com

Ukrhydroenergo: One station of Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant in critical state

"We do not know to what extent the HPS-2 would operate (after the attack)," Syrota said, adding that HPS-1 also does not work as of around 10:00 a.m. local time on March 22.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com

Russian troops struck Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant two times directly with missiles, causing critical damage to one of its stations, the head of Ukrainian state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo Ihor Syrota told Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) on March 22.

"So far, we are losing the station," Syrota said.

Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro Hydroelectric Station, Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant, was hit during the Russian mass attack on March 22.

Syrota told RFE/RL that the Hydroelectric Power Station-2 (HPS-2), one of the two stations of Zaporizhzhia's Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant, is in critical condition as two Russian missiles hit it directly, damaging crane girders and a support pillar.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:

Deadly shooting at Moscow concert hall leaves 40 dead, 100 injured

Russian media have reported a devastating shooting at the Crocus City Hall concert hall in northwest Moscow, which left…
essanews.com essanews.com

Telegraph channel Meduza has highlighted that on March 19, Vladimir Putin dismissed alerts from U.S. diplomats regarding a potential terrorist attack on a densely populated venue in Moscow. The Russian leader denounced the American cautionary advice as "blackmail" from the West, aiming to "intimidate and destabilize our society".
Click to expand...
 
www.economist.com

Who was behind the massacre in Moscow?

Islamic State claims responsibility, but Vladimir Putin tries to implicate Ukraine
www.economist.com www.economist.com

Ukraine immediately denied any involvement in the attack. A high-level intelligence source told The Economist that the Ukrainian government had been worried that the Kremlin might try to weaponise a terror event of this sort, especially as Mr Putin weighs up whether to risk a new wave of mobilisation. The source said it was necessary to wait to see how Russia would officially classify the event: “Whether they will say it is Chechnya, or Dagestan, perhaps that we are involved somehow, or just simply blame us directly.” The reality is that it would be an act of pure insanity for Ukraine to attempt anything of the sort. Killing civilians would be a sure way to alienate the Western supporters on whom Ukraine so heavily depends.
Click to expand...


Putin, unsurprisingly, blames Ukraine for the Moscow terrorist attack that has been claimed by Islamic State: “The terrorists were escaping toward the Ukrainian border, where a ‘window’ was opened for them.”
Click to expand...


The Putin administration has instructed Russian state-funded and pro-government media to emphasize possible “traces” of Ukrainian involvement in their reporting on Friday’s Crocus City Hall terrorist attack, according to Meduza’s sources.
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Ukrainian intelligence spox Andriy Yusov tells me the FSB claim that Moscow terror attack suspects were heading to Ukraine & had contacts here is 'absurd'

It 'would suggest they were stupid or suicidal’

- the area is full of military & special services & is an active frontline
Click to expand...


1/7 @KSE_Institute Ru Chartbook: “Further Weakening Of Russian Macroeconomic Stability Will Require Additional Measures.” OFAC’s sanctions on vessels work, yet revenues rebound. Despite high budget deficit, military spending drives GDP growth.
2/7 Jan-Feb: RU budget deficit hit 1.5 trillion RUB, 92% of yearly plan, due to spending surge. Half-depleted NWF & lack of $300B reserves signal post-war challenges.
3/7 Military spending boosts GDP growth (+2.5% in 2024), but its withdrawal will exacerbate structural problems with investment & labor shortage.
4/7 Russia's foreign trade stabilized at ~$100B exports & ~$75B imports per quarter. This led to a 62% decline in trade and a 79% drop in current account surpluses in 2023 vs 2022. Plus, the ruble depreciation prompted CBR's interest rate hikes & capital controls reintroduction.
5/7 @USTreasury strategy of designating tankers is working: 41 vessels sanctioned, with only 5 completing voyages, leaving the rest unloaded or unable to find buyers. This widened RU oil to Brent discount from ~$11-12/bbl (Nov) to ~$15/bbl (Feb).
6/7 Despite new strategy applied, budget revenues from oil and gas rebounded in February, driven by rising global oil prices & tax changes. Urals oil prices exceeded the $60/bbl cap, hitting $66-67/bbl in Feb, leading to ~$470M in extra earning from crude oil last month.
7/7 @KSE_Institute suggests exposing Russia’s economic vulnerabilities by strengthening price cap enforcement, targeting the shadow fleet, reducing oil price caps, banning Russian hydrocarbons, and targeting oil and gas-related services.
Click to expand...

kyivindependent.com

Dutch PM: Ukraine to get large amount of shells 'in the near future'

A large amount of ammunition will be sent to Ukraine "in the near future" within the Czech-led initiative to provide Kyiv with hundreds of thousands of artillery shells, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on March 22.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com

A large amount of ammunition will be sent to Ukraine "in the near future" within the Czech-led initiative to provide Kyiv with hundreds of thousands of artillery shells, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on March 22.

Czech President Petr Pavel said in February that Prague had identified 500,000 155 mm shells and 300,000 122 mm shells outside Europe that could be bought and sent to Ukraine after the necessary funds were allocated to the initiative.

Artillery shells are a crucial capability for Ukraine as the country faces critical ammunition shortages. Delays in U.S. military assistance, caused by disputes in Congress, have already had a direct impact on the battlefield, contributing to the loss of the key front-line city of Avdiivka.

"In the weeks and months ahead, we will continue to do our utmost to support Ukraine, prioritizing artillery and air defense," Rutte wrote on X after discussing the ammunition delivery with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said on March 12 that the initiative has already secured the purchase of 300,000 shells and received nonbinding commitments for 200,000 more.

According to Fiala's security advisor, Tomas Pojar, the rounds could start flowing to Ukraine by June.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Don't Toews Me said:

US urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries

Washington told Kyiv that drone attacks risk driving up crude prices and provoking retaliation
www.ft.com www.ft.com

The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning that the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions.
The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times.
Both intelligence units have steadily expanded their own drone programmes to strike Russian targets on land, sea and in the air since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
One person said that the White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity.
Russia remains one of the world’s most important energy exporters despite western sanctions on its oil and gas sector. Oil prices have risen about 15 per cent this year, to $85 a barrel, pushing up fuel costs just as US President Joe Biden begins his campaign for re-election.
Washington is also concerned that if Ukraine keeps hitting Russian facilities, including many that are hundreds of miles from the border, Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west.
This includes the CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market. Western companies including ExxonMobil and Chevron use the pipeline, which Moscow briefly shut in 2022.
“We do not encourage or enable attacks inside of Russia,” an NSC spokesperson said. The CIA declined to comment. In Kyiv, a spokesperson for the SBU declined to comment. Officials at GUR and Zelenskyy’s office did not respond to requests for comment.
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news.err.ee

EDF: Russia attacks civilian targets to compensate for front line failures

Over the last week, Russia has increased the intensity of its attacks on civilian infrastructure to make up for little success on the front line and its inability to expel Russian resistance fighters, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces' (EDF) Intelligence Center.
news.err.ee news.err.ee

Over the last week, Russia has increased the intensity of its attacks on civilian infrastructure to make up for little success on the front line and its inability to expel Russian resistance fighters, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces' (EDF) Intelligence Center.

"The Russian Federation continues to maintain a high operational tempo in Ukraine and to maintain the initiative on most of the front lines. However, Russia has failed to achieve its objectives and major changes on the front lines have not been achieved," Kiviselg said at a briefing held at the Ministry of Defense on Friday.

"Due to the spillover of fighting into Russian territory, the Russian Armed Forces are currently unable to retake areas invaded by Russian resistance groups, and as a result the Russian Federation has intensified attacks against the civilian population and civilian structures in Ukraine," the intelligence chief added.

At the same time, he said the probability of sabotage and asymmetric military action is increasing in northeastern Ukraine, where Russia aims to sow confusion and cause inconvenience to the civilian population.

Kiviselg said Russia is likely to increase the number of airstrikes against civilian infrastructure in the near future. It hopes to break Ukrainian society's resilience and support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

"The main reason for this is that in recent weeks the Russian Federation has not achieved the expected results on the front lines and there have been no major advances. So they are trying to carry out attacks where they expect to achieve their desired effect, i.e. still attacking civilian infrastructure," the colonel said.

Speaking about the attack on the Zaporizhzhia's hydroelectric dam on Thursday night, Kiviselg said this shows Russia's indiscriminate attack tactics, where see all civilian objects as potential targets.
Click to expand...
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Not so fast there.

Ukraine Denies US Asked to Stop Energy Infrastructure Attacks.

It’s nuts how easily some will run with Kremlin generated misinformation.

Edited: Worded very poorly! Not you my man, I’m talking about much of the reporting going on nowadays. Where they’re quick to write up anything and everything with no vetting.
 
Last edited:
www.csis.org

Can South Korean 105-Millimeter Ammunition Rescue Ukraine?

Last year, the Biden administration worked with South Korea to send over 300,000 155-millimeter shells to Ukraine. The administration may need to re-tap the South Korean munitions stockpile to arm Ukraine in the face of dwindling stockpiles and congressional inertia.
www.csis.org www.csis.org

What South Korea may be able to spare are 105 mm shells.

These 105 mm shells (around 33 pounds each) have less range and explosive power than 155 mm shells (around 95 pounds each), but the howitzers are lighter and more mobile. As Western 155 mm artillery stockpiles dwindle, the United States and others (United Kingdom, New Zealand, Italy, and Latvia) have provided Ukraine with 105 mm howitzers and ammunition. The Ukrainian army now operates an assortment of around 100 105 mm artillery pieces, including the U.S. M101, the U.S./UK M118/M119, and the Italian OTO Melara.

During the Vietnam War, these lighter howitzers proved indispensable in firebases, given their high mobility by road and air. Their light weight and mobility would allow Ukrainian artillery units to relocate quickly after firing, a crucial tactic for survivability on the modern battlefield. These howitzers would also allow Ukrainian battlefield commanders to conduct attacks on rough terrain against high-value targets. Rapid movement by helicopter could quickly reinforce threatened areas.

Public reports suggest South Korea has around 3.4 million 105 mm artillery shells, most which were once part of WRSA-K. These munitions would be compatible with all the 105 mm howitzers Ukraine operates.

Lending these munitions likely will not hurt South Korean military readiness. Less than 30 percent of howitzers operated by the South Korean military shoot 105 mm ammunition and the South Korean military is transitioning most units to 155 mm self-propelled howitzers like the domestically produced K9 Thunder.

The South Korean Ministry of Defense originally planned to decommission all 105 mm howitzers by 2020. Instead, to leverage the remaining 105 mm ammunition in the stockpile, it developed the K105 mobile howitzer by loading a refurbished towed 105 mm howitzer onto a five-ton truck. Around 200 are in operation today, assigned to support units that do not receive 155 mm self-propelled artillery. Ultimately, the South Korean military plans to transfer the K105 howitzers to reserve units.

A U.S. proposal to use the bulk of South Korea's 105 mm munitions stockpile, followed by replacing them with the currently in-production 155 mm ammunition, could appeal to South Korea.
Click to expand...


Just spoke to a friend in Kharkiv still in the dark (candlelite) after Russia's last massive missile attack. No street lights, no lifts in much of the city for most of the day

Ukraine fears even worse strikes are coming as Moscow accuses it of 'links' to the Moscow terror attack
Click to expand...

www.lrt.lt

US ambassador to NATO: Russian attack on Baltics is not imminent

According to US and NATO assessments, a Russian attack on the Baltic states is not imminent. “But the alliance is prepar...
www.lrt.lt www.lrt.lt

According to US and NATO assessments, a Russian attack on the Baltic states is not imminent. “But the alliance is preparing to respond immediately, should Russia get any ideas about crossing the line into NATO territory,” US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told Baltic journalists on Thursday.
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