What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (2 Viewers)


Ukraine starts retaliating for Russian strikes on its power infrastructure by targeting Russian electricity stations. Two unit of the Novocherkassk Power Plant near Rostov caught fire and stopped functioning after a nighttime Ukrainian drone attack.

Large parts of Ukraine’s Odesa and Kharkiv are currently out of power because of Russian strikes.


Russian forces continue to advance west of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. @Deepstate_UA note that Russia maintains a manpower advantage and continues drop large numbers of UMPK glide bombs.

Ukraine’s Battered Army Grapples With Growing Troop Shortage

Ukraine’s armed forces desperately need fresh troops to hold back massed Russian offensives. But political dithering is leaving front-line units threadbare.
A bill aimed at expanding the draft in Ukraine is stuck in Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, after months of debate.
The proposed changes are rather meager: The age of conscription would be lowered to 25 from 27. In addition, soldiers would be eligible to leave the military after three years of service, and punishments would be imposed for men who avoid registering for the draft.
Yet the Rada, faced with large parts of the populace who are unwilling to fight, is struggling to approve even these modest tweaks to the law.
“We’re struggling to lower the age to 25—it’s an unpopular decision,” said Fedir Venislavskyi, a member of the Rada in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ruling party, who has been one of the law’s leading backers. “We need to increase the number of people who can be mobilized.”

Olha Denysenko has been helping organize protests in Kyiv, demanding a rest for men like her husband, who volunteered at the start of the war and has now spent two years at the front. During that time, he has had only 20 days of vacation, she said.
“The state has sacrificed our husbands, forgotten them,” Denysenko, 35 years old, said. “It’s a huge burden, and it should be distributed evenly, not all dumped on the shoulders of those who agreed to defend the country.”
Professional Ukrainian soldiers say they are especially in need of young men, since many of those who have been drafted are middle-aged.
“You can’t fight with old men,” said Ihor Belous, a 31-year-old who has been in the military for 12 years. Now, many of his comrades are in their 40s, he said, and need more time to recover from each mission. “Everyone needs to accept that this is going to be a long war…Volunteers are not endless.”


“That’s highly unpopular,” said Mykola Kniazhytskyi, an opposition lawmaker from Lviv. “Truth be told, mobilization is a hot political potato, and no one wants to be holding it. The army needs many more people. But Zelenskyy doesn’t want to take responsibility for the mobilization and says it is up to government ministries, and they’re afraid of getting their hands burned and say it is up to the parliament, which then passes the buck back.

“Even most lawmakers from Zelenskyy’s own party [Servant of the People] are against the legislation, saying it falls foul of European human rights conventions,” Kniazhytskyi added. “This is becoming a real mess. In Lviv, people are buying apartments but don't sign a purchase agreement to avoid it being formally registered, or they register it in a friend’s name because they’re afraid later it could be confiscated. Others are emptying bank accounts in case legislation is approved and their money [is] frozen.”

What isn’t helping, he and other lawmakers say, is the frequent talk from the frontlines about the lack of weapons and artillery shells. “You have officers going on television saying if we don't get more money and ammunition from the United States and Europe everyone at the front is going to get killed in a matter of weeks because the Russians produce many drones and have more shells,” Kniazhytskyi fumed. Such prognoses aren’t helping persuade reluctant Ukrainians like Artem to join up.

“There’s no real political will to pass a legislation that would actually work efficiently — it has been postponed so many times already,” said former Deputy Prime Minister Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, now an opposition lawmaker.

“The Western hesitation in providing the military resupply and weapons we need isn’t helping in terms of mobilization,” she added. “If the only thing you hear from the front is that they don’t have enough weapons to fight, then obviously it makes people even more skeptical about enlisting.”


Russia launched close to 190 missiles, 140 Shahed drones, and 700 aerial bombs at Ukraine over the last week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address on March 24.
 
You can`t make this stuff up. I guess only Hamas can carry out terrorist attacks.


"We in the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) condemn in the strongest terms the terrorist attack that targeted civilians in the Russian capital, Moscow, and left dozens dead and wounded," the Hamas statement reads, as translated from Arabic."
 

Here is an updated map of Russian air bases where painted decoy aircraft are visible in satellite imagery.

Unlike real aircraft, these flat decoys often lack detail and don’t cast shadows or change locations.


Kharkiv city authorities have announced that they are forced to end the heating season ahead of schedule to reduce the load on the power grid after a massive Russian attack, said Mayor Ihor Terekhov.

The aggressor has "virtually destroyed" the main energy facilities that supplied the city. Utility workers and power engineers continue to eliminate the consequences of the attack to restore utility services to residential buildings.


Parts of a downed Russian hypersonic cruise missile 3M22 Tsirkon. Today in Kyiv. Two such missiles were launched by Russians from Crimea. Both were reportedly downed.


Quite significant if Ukraine actually managed to intercept two of these.


Kyiv Post’s sources within the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) have confirmed that two ballistic missiles were launched from Russian-occupied Crimea toward Kyiv on Monday and were aimed at the SBU offices.

Today, March 25, Ukraine is observing the Day of the Security Service of Ukraine. According to sources from the Kyiv Post, the missiles were aimed at the premises where high-ranking SBU officials are located.

Both missiles, according to the Ukrainian Air Force, were shot down and didn’t reach the target.

Video: https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1772223546258837950

Another Russian CUAS concept dubbed “Birdcatcher Tarantula” with the drone hunter that shoots a net at adversary UAV.


🇺🇦Military Intel:🇷🇺landing ship Yamal sustains critical damage in Ukrainian strike on 23 March. Ship has hole in upper deck. 🇷🇺pumping water out of the crippled vessel.

Yamal was involved in Crimea annexation & recently underwent repairs from 2017-2023.
 
You can`t make this stuff up. I guess only Hamas can carry out terrorist attacks.


"We in the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) condemn in the strongest terms the terrorist attack that targeted civilians in the Russian capital, Moscow, and left dozens dead and wounded," the Hamas statement reads, as translated from Arabic."
Though I don't believe there is any direct conflict, with Iran being a major supporter/supplier of Hamas their interest are aligned against ISIS as ISIS is a mortal enemy of Iran. Strange things happen in international terrorism.
 
You can`t make this stuff up. I guess only Hamas can carry out terrorist attacks.


"We in the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) condemn in the strongest terms the terrorist attack that targeted civilians in the Russian capital, Moscow, and left dozens dead and wounded," the Hamas statement reads, as translated from Arabic."
Though I don't believe there is any direct conflict, with Iran being a major supporter/supplier of Hamas their interest are aligned against ISIS as ISIS is a mortal enemy of Iran. Strange things happen in international terrorism.

Never ceases to amaze me. Russia calls for Israel to stop their ground assault and bombing while at the same time Russia has been attacking and bombing the crap out of Ukraine cities for over 2 years.

Hamas condemns the terror attack on Moscow after they killed over 1000 civilians in their own terror attack.

Honor among thieves.
 
You can`t make this stuff up. I guess only Hamas can carry out terrorist attacks.


"We in the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) condemn in the strongest terms the terrorist attack that targeted civilians in the Russian capital, Moscow, and left dozens dead and wounded," the Hamas statement reads, as translated from Arabic."
Though I don't believe there is any direct conflict, with Iran being a major supporter/supplier of Hamas their interest are aligned against ISIS as ISIS is a mortal enemy of Iran. Strange things happen in international terrorism.

Never ceases to amaze me. Russia calls for Israel to stop their ground assault and bombing while at the same time Russia has been attacking and bombing the crap out of Ukraine cities for over 2 years.

Hamas condemns the terror attack on Moscow after they killed over 1000 civilians in their own terror attack.

Honor among thieves.
It is bizarro earth now. Embrace the weird.
 
You can`t make this stuff up. I guess only Hamas can carry out terrorist attacks.


"We in the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) condemn in the strongest terms the terrorist attack that targeted civilians in the Russian capital, Moscow, and left dozens dead and wounded," the Hamas statement reads, as translated from Arabic."

Without trying to get into a debate about what I'm about to say, I can tell you that Hamas does not consider itself a terrorist organization and that a lot of the world has not designated them that way. Hamas would claim that it has political legitimacy and that the core of its mission and philosophy renders their group a legitimate political entity. They claim to be combatants in a war and claim they attack civilians only because Israel does the same. They call themselves a "resistance."

Their official position is that they are not like the Taliban nor are they like al-Qaeda. They publicly state that they are an entity that seeks a democratic society that respects human rights and is an open society. They claim to want to be like Erdogan's Turkey.

Please let's not get into substantive discussions any further. You are welcome to PM me about it. You can probably guess from my time on the board what I think of these claims. Let's get back to Russia and keep it on the news dispatches that I find so valuable.
 

The US proposed to its Group of Seven allies that they create a special purpose vehicle to issue at least $50 billion of bonds backed by the profits generated by frozen Russian sovereign assets and use the proceeds to support Ukraine


Kyiv gets some revenge. Ukraine struck the Konstantin Olshansky landing ship, which Russia captured in Crimea in 2014, with a Neptune missile, navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said this morning. It wasn't combat-capable but Russia was restoring it after loss of other ships.


Reportedly footage of a Ukrainian GLSDB strike on a house with a Russian UAV team.


Reuters calculations show that shutdowns forced by Ukrainian drone attacks in 2024 have cost Russia roughly 7 percent of its oil refining capacity — about 4.6 million tons (370,500 barrels per day).


Russia has started supplying oil directly to North Korea in defiance of UN sanctions, further cementing ties between the two authoritarian regimes and dealing a new blow to international efforts to contain Pyongyang.
At least five North Korean tankers travelled this month to collect oil products from Vostochny Port in Russia’s Far East, according to satellite images shared with the Financial Times by the Royal United Services Institute, a UK think-tank.
The shipments, which began on March 7, are the first documented direct seaborne deliveries from Russia since the UN Security Council — with Moscow’s approval — imposed a strict cap on oil transfers in 2017 in response to Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons tests.
“These oil deliveries constitute a full-frontal assault against the sanctions regime, which is now on the brink of collapse,” said Hugh Griffiths, a former co-ordinator of the UN panel that monitors sanctions on North Korea.

Ukraine relies on Starlink for its drone war. Russia appears to be bypassing sanctions to use the devices too

Ukrainian front-line troops say they are experiencing connection problems with the vital Starlink internet service, owned by Elon Musk and used to run Kyiv’s fleet of attack drones, while also reporting an increase in Russian use of the devices, despite this being prohibited by US sanctions.

In a series of interviews across the front lines, Ukrainian soldiers have said connection speeds have dropped in the past months, and reported other connection problems. The complaints coincide with a rise in Ukrainian sightings of Russian uses of the satellite internet service, run by Musk’s SpaceX, and social media posts in which Russian crowdfunders claim to have successfully bypassed sanctions on Russian use of the devices, buying them in third countries.

The reason for the reports of a deteriorating service in Ukraine are unclear, and Starlink, SpaceX and Musk declined to comment. Yet troops and analysts suggested there may be more Starlinks in contested areas than months earlier, on both sides of the lines, which could impact connection speeds.

The Starlink internet service has provided a significant frontline advantage to Ukraine’s smaller military since the 2022 invasion, permitting its forces to share real-time drone feeds between units, and communicate in areas where combat has disrupted cellphone service.

One communications operator in the Zaporizhzhia area, who asked to be named Misha, told CNN the issues had begun in the past three weeks. “We started noticing (a) bad quality connection,” he said.

“It breaks up all the time, it needs to be rebooted for it to start working properly. But soon the speed starts to decrease and the connection breaks up again. It brings rather unpleasant complications” for their work, he added.

He said adverse weather might be a factor, although CNN has spoken to units across the front lines reporting similar issues.
 

 

At @RUSI_org’s air power conference listening to @KofmanMichael. Russian fires advantage remains steady at five or six to one, he says, but the big change of last month is growing importance of the Russian air force & glide bombs, compounding that advantage.


Russian forces have managed small gains in Ukraine courtesy of having more artillery and learning to use drones, Col. Eero Rebo, head of the Defense League Headquarters, told ERR's "Ukraina stuudio."

He mentioned that Russia has a strong capability to develop anti-drone combat.

"I think all of it, not just drones necessary for dropping a grenade-sized element, but also just for observation, actually affects the front today. I think significant efforts are made toward anti-drone combat and in electronic warfare, Russia has a very solid school that is definitely developing its capabilities day and night, trying to get them into mass production," the colonel said.


Nor does Mr Zelensky have much excuse for the delays in constructing defensive fortifications, particularly after the Russians showed in the summer that defenders in this war have the upper hand when operating from well-prepared lines. It was not until November that the president announced the start of major construction employing both engineering troops and civilian contractors. An integrated defence system, including anti-tank ditches, “dragon’s teeth” obstacles, minefields, firing points and earthworks to provide protection for infantry, is only now slowly taking shape. For now at least, says Mr Muzyka, a stalemate looks like the best-case scenario for Ukraine.


Poland has decided to double its contribution to a Czech-led plan to buy ammunition for Ukraine, the foreign minister said on Wednesday during a visit to Latvia, as Kyiv seeks to replenish supplies for its outgunned troops battling Russia's invasion.


Turkey's Arca Defense will deliver 116,000 M107 155mm rounds to the DoD this year on what is almost certainly a Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative contract.

Additional contract awards are expected soon for delivery next year.

Meanwhile, another Turkish firm, Repkon, will begin production of 155mm shell bodies this June at General Dynamics Ordinance and Tactical Systems' new plant in Mesquite, TX. This new GD-OTS plant will eventually produce 30% of all US shell bodies.

Finally, the US is in discussion with Turkey to ramp up their purchases of Turkish made TNT for use as explosive filler in US made shells.


Russian oil firms face delays of up to several months to be paid for crude and fuel as banks in China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) become more wary of U.S. secondary sanctions, eight sources familiar with the matter said.
Payment delays reduce revenue to the Kremlin and make them erratic, allowing Washington to achieve its dual policy sanction goals - to disrupt money going to the Kremlin to punish it for the war in Ukraine while not interrupting global energy flows.
Several banks in China, the UAE and Turkey have boosted their sanctions compliance requirements in recent weeks, resulting in delays or even the rejection of money transfers to Moscow, according to the eight banking and trading sources.


Russian troops attacked the city of Mykolaiv, where a powerful explosion occurred. The Russians allegedly used ballistic weapons in the attack, which resulted in 6 people being injured, Mykolaiv Mayor Oleksandr Senkevych said.


A Ukrainian Telegram channel claimed the Tsirkon’s warhead weighs 200kg, 80 kg of which are explosives. An expert from the Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise, which has studied the Tsirkon, claimed it’s even smaller—just 40 kg of explosives.


New radars for Ukrainian F-16s?

Yesterday we learned that Greece is looking to sell their F-16C/D Block 30 fighter jets. Further to that, they are also looking to sell the APG-68(V9) radars from their F-16C/D Block 52, which are being upgraded to Viper standard.

Though the F-16A/B Block 15/20 MLUs which Ukraine is slated to receive were upgraded to Block 50/52 standard, the one thing that was not, is their radars. They still have the less powerful APG-66(V)2A.

Thanks to @Doha104p3, it is confirmed that the original A/B airframes can in fact accept the larger and heavier APG-68 radar.

So the remaining questions are:

1. If these radars are purchased for the Ukrainian F-16s, are there contractors and facilities available to do the replacement work ASAP.
2. Can funding be secured to finance this endeavor?

Acquiring these radars and purchasing these additional F-16s for Ukraine should be a top priority. It is a logical use of some of the money from the €5 billion Ukraine Assistance Fund in the European Peace Facility.
 

Anatolli Kuzmin, 64, owns one of Ukraine's private defense factories, making roughly 20,000 shells a month, per AP.

Russians seized his farm tools factory in Melitopol, so he started over in western Ukraine, and aims to produce 100,000 shells/month and drone components.


Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said shell deliveries under the Czech-led initiative are weeks away, and the initiative potentially could yield as many as 1.5 million shells, not the originally announced 800,000.


.@Justin_Br0nk says European air forces could defeat Russia in air to air fight, but problem is suppression/defeat of Russia’s ground-based air defences. And if Europeans can’t get air superiority then many of their other air tactics don’t work, eg air to ground attacks.
If US committed in Asia or “unwilling to shoulder the primary SEAD/DEAD responsibilities, NATO air forces would face similar problems establishing air superiority over territory contested by Russia or any other state opponent with mobile SAMs”
“European air forces also lack the large stand-off ISTAR fleets traditionally used to map and understand enemy air defence networks, and the intelligence and C2 staff capacity to run complex large-scale operations without significant US personnel…”


There have been recent warnings in the media about Russia preparing for a long confrontation with NATO. For example, the Lithuanian intelligence said in its annual report that Russia is spending a lot of money military development also outside the Ukraine war.

Väli said that while such reports should be taken seriously, the important question is what to do with the information.

"Looking at the big picture, it is Russia's goal to be among the power centers of the world. And for Russia's influence to wax, someone else's needs to wane. Where Europe is concerned, it is Russia's goal to dismantle the existing security architecture with NATO among its core pillars. Therefore, contrasting to NATO is clearly part of Russia's foreign and security policy doctrine," the reserve general said.

But Väli explained that while Russia is trying to prepare for a possible confrontation with the alliance, it is not capable of doing anything else with the Ukraine war raging.

He said that while Russia is taking steps on paper, changing the military districts structure, creating new armies, divisions and brigades, he doubts the country has the strength to create any of it in physical form in the current stage of the war in Ukraine.

"Weaponry is just one component therein. All these new armies need commanders. Second, they need personnel, equipment etc. There is very little except plans on paper and perhaps some old buildings that used to serve a military purpose today. The intensity of the war today is such that Russia lacks the strength to create much of anything in parallel," Väli said.

He also said that different time frames have been proposed for when a possible confrontation between Russia and NATO could come to a head.

"We have suggested it could be three years, the Germans came up with eight years etc. These guesses are always tied to conditions, which tend to change in their turn. But the one thing they all have in common, as far as I have seen, is that the war in Ukraine must be over. Secondly, that it cannot have ended with a total Russian defeat. They will need to have saved at least some face and resources. Third, the international situation must be such that the collective West is busy with other conflicts elsewhere. That is when we might find that the Russia threat has grown to a point where we should be even more serious about it," Väli explained.


Greece looks poised to offload both its early-model F-16s and its French-made Mirage 2000 fighters, as part of a major overhaul of its armed forces, including the Hellenic Air Force. The F-16s and Mirages could be attractive on the secondhand market and it’s notable that the two types have also been repeatedly associated with potential transfers to Ukraine — which could be set to receive its first F-16s before the end of this year.
 

If you want to live, dig, goes the adage by which Ukrainian soldiers have lived since Russia’s all-out invasion two years ago. The deeper their trenches, the better protected they are from exploding shrapnel and snipers’ bullets.
“It’s still true,” said Yevhen, a soldier on the eastern front. “But now, if we don’t want to lose more of our land, we must also dig, dig and dig.”
A month after Ukrainian troops retreated from the eastern industrial city of Avdiivka, handing Russia its first big battlefield victory in almost a year, Kyiv is still fighting on its heels.
Russian units are not sweeping across the battlefield as they did in February 2022. But they are making small and steady gains in southern and eastern Ukraine and are seemingly intent on capturing Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions over the next 34 months, according to the Centre for Defence Strategies, a Ukrainian security think-tank.
The Kremlin’s troops are taking advantage of Ukraine’s dwindling supplies of artillery and ammunition while Washington drags its feet on critical future military support for Kyiv and the EU scrambles to fill the gap.
But Ukraine’s lack of robust, layered defensive lines is another reason the Russian army has been able to steadily press ahead and capture smaller swaths of territory along the 1,000km frontline.
Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine would build new fortifications along three lines of defence totalling 2,000km by the end of spring. On Wednesday, he visited a location in northern Sumy region to check on their progress.
“I inspected trenches, dugouts, fire and command observation posts,” he said, sharing a video of himself walking through the new earthworks. “Construction of fortifications continues,” he added.

The absence of fortified defences around Avdiivka was especially unnerving for many in Ukraine, since the city had been targeted by Russian forces as far back as 2014 and fought over ever since.
In a rare outburst of criticism, several Ukrainian analysts and journalists scolded their political and military leaders for not having better prepared fortifications for their troops to fall back to as the Russians tightened their grip on Avdiivka.
“Where is the second line of defence?” asked Kostiantyn and Vlada Liberov, prominent Ukrainian photographers embedded with units in Avdiivka as the city fell and scores of troops were either killed or captured.
Valentyn Badrak, director of the Kyiv-based Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research Center, said Ukraine’s military leadership displayed a “certain euphoria” and believed that western support would “never stop”, allowing them to press ahead — so the construction of fortifications behind the frontline was not considered to be necessary.
The order to build new, stronger defences should have come in late 2022 at the start of the “frantic pressure on Bakhmut”, Badrak said, referring to the eastern Ukrainian city where a 10-month battle cost Kyiv thousands of experienced soldiers and precious munitions.
A new working group within Ukraine’s defence ministry is coordinating construction. Fortifications on the first line of defence are being done by the military units assigned to the area, while the second and third lines are carried out by the State Agency for Reconstruction and Infrastructure Development with the help of private contractors.
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said more than 30bn hryvnia (about $800mn) has been allocated to building fortifications this year.
But construction only began ramping up in February, around the time Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky was appointed as new commander-in-chief of the armed forces and announced that Ukraine had moved from offensive actions to “active defence”.


The Ukrainian Air Force says it shot down 26 of 28 Shahed drones launched overnight but none of the three Kh-22, Kh-31P, or S-300 missiles.


Ukrainian drones effect: Russian weekly gasoline production is down sharply, 14.3% below last year.

Chart shows 1,000 tons per week, source: MMI (Telegram).
Data source: Rosstat.
Correction: The chart shows DAILY production in 1,000 tons for each week, not total weekly production.


Aftermath of a Russian UMPK strike in Berdychi. Posted March 24. According to the Ukrainian Telegram channel “Officer,” Russia is dropping up to 10 bombs on Berdychi per day.
In a mid-March report, the Ukrainian Telegram channel “Officer” described Russian tactics in the Berdychi area as follows: MLRS fire targeting roads and Ukrainian troops concentrations, then tube artillery fire, then “meat” assaults—first with expendables to reveal Ukrainian firing points, then with better trained assault infantry, typically with few to no AFVs.


The Russian military is now installing cope cages/anti-drone cages on most ground equipment that has to operate in Ukraine - below are samples from official state media articles about the war.


The Czech government has approved the allocation of funds for the purchase of ammunition for Ukraine, Prime Minister Petr Fiala said. Fiala noted that 20 countries have already joined it. According to him, the ammunition will arrive "within weeks and months".
 
Last edited:
I think the Russians smell blood in the water. There are other reasons but it is undeniable that the main reason the Russians have made progress is the lack of ammunition the Ukrainians have suffered through, namely artillery. If this is reversed and the Ukrainians are amply supplied, the Russians lose their initiative. Until large supplies arrive for Ukraine, this may be Russians best hope of a strategic win in this war.
 
Russia Doubled Imports of an Explosives Ingredient—With Western Help

Russia has boosted its imports of an explosive compound critical to the production of artillery ammunition, including from companies based in the U.S. and other Western countries and allies, despite international sanctions meant to choke Moscow’s wartime production, according to trade data.
Russian imports of nitrocellulose, a highly flammable cotton product central to gunpowder and rocket propellant manufacture, surged 70% in 2022, the first year of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and midway through 2023 had amounted to 3,039 tons of the product, nearly double the 2021 level.
Defense companies around the world have been grappling with ways to source nitrocellulose amid a shortage that has seen prices rise and created chokepoints for production. Only a few countries around the world produce nitrocellulose, since its primary use is in munitions and it is subject to international trade restrictions.
Russia produces little nitrocellulose, the main ingredient in smokeless gunpowder used in artillery, so Moscow’s ability to source it abroad has played a pivotal role in its war against Ukraine, according to U.S. officials and analysts.
“The nitrocellulose that goes into the propellant becomes an artillery shell,” said Bradley Martin, a 30-year U.S. Navy veteran who now heads Rand’s National Security Supply Chain Institute. “The majority of battlefield deaths and a lot of the civilian collateral damage is from artillery,” he said.

China increased supplies of the compound to Russia in the wake of U.S. and European Union sanctions prohibiting exports of any kind for Moscow’s military. But companies from the U.S., Germany and Taiwan are also among those producing the nitrocellulose shipped to Russia in the past two years, according to trade data.
“China does not sell weapons to parties involved in the Ukraine crisis and prudently handles the export of dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations,” Liu Pengyu, spokesman for China’s embassy in Washington, said in a statement. “China-Russia economic and trade cooperation does not target any third party and shall be free from disruption or coercion by any third party.”
One small company in Turkey, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, is responsible for nearly half of Russia’s imports of nitrocellulose since President Vladimir Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to the trade data.


Ukrainian lawmakers fear the army and local authorities are not digging quickly enough or building sufficiently formidable defensive fortifications to withstand an expected Russian offensive in the northeast and southeast of the country.

“We were warning since last summer that you have to construct defensive fortifications on an industrial scale, bringing together the appropriate ministers and local military administrations to build defensive lines fast and make them extremely strong,” opposition lawmaker Rostyslav Pavlenko told POLITICO.

Now that it’s the Ukrainians facing the prospects of a concerted Russian offensive, the nagging question is whether their defensive lines will be as good as the Russians’ — and whether they’ve left too little time to build in earnest.

“They started building them finally. But this is late. They started really last month,” said Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, an opposition lawmaker and former deputy prime minister in the administration of former President Petro Poroshenko.

Oleh Syniehubov, governor of Kharkiv Oblast, told POLITICO: “We started building and overhauling defense fortifications only on March 1.” He said he couldn’t say when they would be completed. “The fortifications have a complex purpose and will consist of barriers able to stop armor and minefields,” he said.

A former senior field commander told POLITICO he’s worried that Ukraine doesn’t have enough mines available for the new fortifications — nor enough mobilized soldiers to properly man them. He was granted a request for anonymity to be able to speak freely.
 

Lengthy @UKRINFORM interview with new Ukraine commander-in-chief Syrsky. Some highlights:
-Russian artillery advantage 6:1
-Comments on Zaluzhny dismissal
-500k not needed for mobilization now, but he sends strong message to Ukrainian men
-Also speaks on Avdiivka retreat, US aid
Syrsky says Ukraine grateful for Western aid but:
"We would be even more grateful if this help came quickly and in sufficient quantity."

"We are grateful to our partners for every projectile... But in order to effectively plan operations, we need predictability of such supply."
Syrsky also delivered this message: "I would like every man of military age in Ukraine to realize that Ukraine's survival depends on his will and actions."


Russia bombarded Ukraine with cruise and ballistic missiles and drones again overnight, targeting fuel and energy facilities. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleschuk said air defense intercepted 84 of 99 projectiles: 58 Shahed drones; 26 missiles.
Ukraine's Energy Minister German Galushchenko said Russian missiles and drones had hit power generation facilities in the Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. https://facebook.com/german.galushc...qXKKyq9NXjfjnF22S4K9bhaG2v5bq8QXZRGKgsZDYBXSl
"Thermal and hydroelectric power plants in the central and western regions were damaged," said Ukrenergo, the state power company. It reported emergency power shutdowns in south-central Dnipropetrovsk region and scheduled outages in eastern Kharkiv region.
DTEK, Ukraine’s largest thermoelectric power producer, reported three of its thermal power plants had been "seriously damaged" and one worker injured. It said repairs were underway.


More strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure last night. Russian forces are trying to destroy power in cities like Kharkiv, Dnipro, and elsewhere. The goal is to create “secondary effects”— to make these cities unlivable and force residents to leave at a large scale./1
“Secondary effects” of critical infrastructure strikes have been discussed in Russian military science for many years. Their strike patterns in Ukraine are consistent in many ways and different in others (for example they are not prioritizing attacking leadership locations)/2
Some power plants are critically damaged. Ukrainian authorities are warning it could be a very long time until power is restored in Kharkiv. A threat to the Kharkiv region (and prospective steps Moscow will take) is starting to come into focus for me. /3 https://pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/24/7447905/index.amp
Russian forces tried to attack Ukrainian critical infrastructure in 2022, but without Shahed drones in their arsenal. They’ve since been able to incorporate Shaheds, reintroduce ballistic missiles, and continue experimenting with missile routing to improve chances of arrival. /4
Most cruise missiles are still shot down, but intercepting ballistic missiles or cruise missiles in certain parts of Ukraine is difficult and in some cases not possible at all. /4


A key issue with FPVs is that Ukraine does not have enough ready-made munitions for them, so Ukrainian units have to adapt munitions designed for other weapon systems or extract submunitions from cluster shells or bombs, which is a very dangerous process.


One Russian paper today warns of a fuel shortage in Russia. “Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s fuel infrastructure have resulted in a drop in petrol production.” Plus, more attempts in the Russian press to implicate Ukraine in the Crocus City concert hall attack.


According to the analysis of Russian Pension Fund data, there were 1.67 million men with disabilities aged 31-59 in 2022. In 2023, this figure increased by 507,000. All together, it is coming to about 1 million losses in a year
 

Kharkiv region has been on air alert for 9.5 hrs today & the latest alarm is still ongoing

It’s an exhausting way to live - which is Russia’s whole point

It’s been hitting the energy supply which means most places are on blackout 3-6 hours p/day

Zelensky: ‘We are trying to find some way not to retreat’

The congressional delay in approving a $60 billion military aid package has been costly for Ukraine, Zelensky said. The military has been unable to plan future operations while legislators squabbled for nearly six months. He warned that hard-pressed Ukrainian forces might have to retreat to secure their front lines and conserve ammunition.
“If there is no U.S. support, it means that we have no air defense, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-milimeter artillery rounds,” he said. “It means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.”
To describe the military situation, Zelensky took a sheet of paper and drew a simple diagram of the combat zone. “If you need 8,000 rounds a day to defend the front line, but you only have, for example, 2,000 rounds, you have to do less,” he explained. “How? Of course, to go back. Make the front line shorter. If it breaks, the Russians could go to the big cities.”
“We are trying to find some way not to retreat,” Zelensky continued. After the Russian capture of Avdiivka in February, he said, “we have stabilized the situation because of smart steps by our military.” If the front remains stable, he said Ukraine can arm and train new brigades in the rear to conduct a new counteroffensive later this year.
Zelensky summed up the zero-sum reality of this conflict: “If you are not taking steps forward to prepare another counteroffensive, Russia will take them. That’s what we learned in this war: If you don’t do it, Russia will do it.”
When I asked whether Ukraine was running short of interceptors and other air-defense weapons to protect its cities and infrastructure, he responded: “That’s true. I don’t want Russia to know what number of air-defense missiles we have, but basically, you’re right. Without the support of Congress, we will have a big deficit of missiles. This is the problem. We are increasing our own air-defense systems, but it is not enough.”

As Russian drones, missiles and precision bombs break through Ukrainian defenses to attack energy facilities and other essential infrastructure, Zelensky feels he has no choice but to punch back across the border — in the hope of establishing deterrence. An example is Ukraine’s drone strikes against Russian refineries over the past month. I asked Zelensky if U.S. officials had warned against such attacks on energy facilities inside Russia, as has been rumored in Washington.
“The reaction of the U.S. was not positive on this,” he confirmed, but Washington couldn’t limit Ukraine’s deployment of its own home-built weapons. “We used our drones. Nobody can say to us you can’t.”

Zelensky argued that he could check Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid only by making Russia pay a similar price. “If there is no air defense to protect our energy system, and Russians attack it, my question is: Why can’t we answer them? Their society has to learn to live without petrol, without diesel, without electricity. … It’s fair.”
“When Russia will stop these steps, we will stop,” he said.


Thursday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. C.Q. Brown, told reporters “the risk of escalation is not as high as maybe it was at the beginning.”

Brown again encouraged swift passage of the supplemental, and said Ukraine will face continued artillery shelling for the foreseeable future. But he also said that fears of a massive spring Russian offensive may be overblown.

“I don't know if the Russians can generate a major offensive. I mean, if you look at…what's happened over the course of…the past year, the Russians have actually thrown a lot of capability and personnel and weapon systems and vehicles to gain what they have gained. And the way I would say, it's almost a meat grinder.”
 

Palantir’s software — which was adopted by Dominic Cummings in No 10 during the coronavirus pandemic, leading to a £330 million contract being signed with the NHS last year — is deceptively simple. By crunching huge amounts of data, the firm provides Ukrainian commanders with a complete view of the battlefield, from warships sailing in the Black Sea, to tanks rolling across the Donbas to fighter jets launching cruise missiles from the air.
The aim is for Kyiv to make quick decisions, allowing it to outperform the top-down Soviet-era bureaucracy of the Russian army. Despite some initial nervousness about sharing such powerful algorithms, Palantir appears to have found an ideal partner in Ukraine, a country renowned for its flourishing tech scene.
“Before the war, Ukraine had become something of an outsourcing shop for western tech companies,” Mosley said. “When Russia invaded, not only did you have this highly technical population with amazing engineers, but they were also broadly familiar with western software. It’s amazing how many people you find who used to work for Google in Mountain View [California].”
More than a thousand members of the Ukrainian armed forces, stationed in brigade headquarters across the country, are using Palantir’s software. The company has half a dozen staff based permanently in Ukraine, their MacBooks adorned with stickers of Patron, Ukraine’s ubiquitous mine-sniffing dog, and Javelin-wielding raccoons, a reference to the animals stolen by Russian troops from Kherson zoo.

Palantir’s software uses AI to speed up traditional military decision-making. At the heart of this is MetaConstellation, a program which allows Ukraine to build a detailed picture of what the Russians are up to.
Hundreds of commercial satellites orbiting the Earth every day take photos of the Russian forces but MetaConstellation picks out the most useful, detailed images, often using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to see through clouds to capture troop build-ups or ship movements. Originally developed for the war on terror, the software has learnt the geography of the Ukrainian steppe and the Black Sea as intimately as it knows the landscapes of Afghanistan and Iraq.
The insights gleaned from these photos are then layered with additional information, such as informants’ tips on the movements of enemy troops or clues provided by intercepted intelligence.
The resultant map of Ukraine is displayed in Gaia, a software roughly equivalent to the table-top miniature battlefields used by First World War generals to shunt around troops, albeit in the form of a live feed on a computer screen. Ukrainian commanders can identify which part of the front line may need more shells, where air defences could be most effective, and receive alerts on significant movements of enemy forces, be they planes, tanks or ships.
Based on these calculations, each unit of the Ukrainian army can then be directed to its most effective contribution to the war that day. A team of artillery gunners in Donbas might be told how many shells to shoot, at which grid co-ordinates, at what time of day — often unaware that their orders have been informed by AI. “The Ukrainians have more targets than they have ammunition, so prioritising the targets is very important,” Mosley said.

Finally, the success or failure of the mission is analysed in Dossier, an analogue to Microsoft’s PowerPoint which updates itself automatically. “What happened to militaries at the end of the 20th century is they all became Powerpoint-based,” said Mosley. “Commanders were presented with endless Powerpoints. But when they asked a question someone had to scurry back and amend the presentation. That process takes days, weeks, months.”

Palantir originally worked for Ukraine pro bono, but the West began subsidising its work last year — so important was its technology considered for the war effort. Now the company has expanded to all corners of the Ukrainian government, working on everything from agricultural mine clearance to building bomb shelters for schools. One of Palantir’s most interesting projects has been helping the country to unearth and investigate war crimes.
Due to the spread of satellites and smartphones, the war in Ukraine is believed to be the most documented conflict in history. By using Palantir’s AI to sift through reams of photos, videos and witness testimonies, the Ukrainian chief prosecutor has recorded details of an astonishing 124,000 potential crimes. “When we work with such a great number of cases, we can’t investigate and prosecute them manually,” said Andriy Kostin, speaking in his wood-panelled office in Kyiv.
Kostin explained how the technology can match a rape investigation in Bucha with a similar incident that occurred near Kharkiv, allowing investigators to find the alleged perpetrators and build a case faster than any human could. “The system can find links between the same types of crimes committed on different territories. Could it be by the same military units? Different military units? It helps us to establish patterns and go up the chain of command,” Kostin said.


"Colonel of the General Staff", an officer in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, writes that the Russians started to use Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles with additional warhead module, which almost doubles its weight (from 450kg to 800kg).

According to him, such modification was possible due to the reduction of missile's fuel tank.


Russians mistakenly shot down their own Su-27 fighter jet over Crimea on March 28, confirmed Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk.

"Someone shot it down because they "really wanted to get a medal" and did not find out whose plane it was," he said.


Russia is taking a page from the book Ukraine uses to counter Shahed drones. Izvestia reported that Russia is forming mobile C-UAS groups within combined arms armies and air/air defense armies. They’ll be armed with truck-mounted ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns, pick-up trucks carrying large-caliber machine guns, electronic warfare systems, and smoke generators.

It’s worth noting that Russian units are already using ZU-23-2s, etc mounted on tracked vehicles (typically MT-LBs) for C-UAS closer to the front. Here are a couple examples from the 381st Artillery Regiment, which uses them to protect firing points.
 

The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning that the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions.
The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times.
Both intelligence units have steadily expanded their own drone programmes to strike Russian targets on land, sea and in the air since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
One person said that the White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity.
Russia remains one of the world’s most important energy exporters despite western sanctions on its oil and gas sector. Oil prices have risen about 15 per cent this year, to $85 a barrel, pushing up fuel costs just as US President Joe Biden begins his campaign for re-election.
Washington is also concerned that if Ukraine keeps hitting Russian facilities, including many that are hundreds of miles from the border, Russia could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the west.
This includes the CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market. Western companies including ExxonMobil and Chevron use the pipeline, which Moscow briefly shut in 2022.
“We do not encourage or enable attacks inside of Russia,” an NSC spokesperson said. The CIA declined to comment. In Kyiv, a spokesperson for the SBU declined to comment. Officials at GUR and Zelenskyy’s office did not respond to requests for comment.


Over the last week, Russia has increased the intensity of its attacks on civilian infrastructure to make up for little success on the front line and its inability to expel Russian resistance fighters, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces' (EDF) Intelligence Center.

"The Russian Federation continues to maintain a high operational tempo in Ukraine and to maintain the initiative on most of the front lines. However, Russia has failed to achieve its objectives and major changes on the front lines have not been achieved," Kiviselg said at a briefing held at the Ministry of Defense on Friday.

"Due to the spillover of fighting into Russian territory, the Russian Armed Forces are currently unable to retake areas invaded by Russian resistance groups, and as a result the Russian Federation has intensified attacks against the civilian population and civilian structures in Ukraine," the intelligence chief added.

At the same time, he said the probability of sabotage and asymmetric military action is increasing in northeastern Ukraine, where Russia aims to sow confusion and cause inconvenience to the civilian population.

Kiviselg said Russia is likely to increase the number of airstrikes against civilian infrastructure in the near future. It hopes to break Ukrainian society's resilience and support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

"The main reason for this is that in recent weeks the Russian Federation has not achieved the expected results on the front lines and there have been no major advances. So they are trying to carry out attacks where they expect to achieve their desired effect, i.e. still attacking civilian infrastructure," the colonel said.

Speaking about the attack on the Zaporizhzhia's hydroelectric dam on Thursday night, Kiviselg said this shows Russia's indiscriminate attack tactics, where see all civilian objects as potential targets.
Not so fast there.

Ukraine Denies US Asked to Stop Energy Infrastructure Attacks.

It’s nuts how easily some will run with Kremlin generated misinformation.

Edited: Worded very poorly! Not you my man, I’m talking about much of the reporting going on nowadays. Where they’re quick to write up anything and everything with no vetting.
Apparently Zelensky confirmed in the WP that they US is not happy with Ukraine attacking the oil refineries. Possibly not everything in the FT article is 100%, but the main thrust appears to be true.
 
Kyiv's top general says Ukraine needs fewer troops than expected

Ukraine's military will need to mobilise fewer people than initially expected to fend off Russia's two-year-old invasion, Kyiv's top general said on Friday.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in December that his military had proposed mobilising up to 500,000 more Ukrainians into the armed forces as Russia stepped up attacks along the 1,000-km (621-mile) front line.
Commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who was appointed last month, said in an interview with Ukrainian media published on Friday that the figure had been "significantly reduced" after a review of resources.
He did not name a new figure.
"We expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland," told the Ukrinform news agency. "I am talking not only about the mobilized but also about volunteer fighters."
Ukraine's mobilisation effort has been hobbled by waning enthusiasm and reports of corruption and abuse at draft offices. A bill that would allow officials to call up more troops is currently winding its way through parliament.

Syrskyi added that an audit of non-combat units had allowed military planners to send "thousands" of service members to the front, and that combat-support roles were "equally important" in Kyiv's defence effort.
"The war that we are forced to wage against the Russian invaders is a war of attrition, a war of logistics," he said. "Therefore, the importance of the effectiveness of rear units cannot be underestimated."
The former ground forces chief also said "powerful" defensive lines were being prepared "in almost all threatening areas" as Russia keeps up its attacks.
The eastern city of Avdiivka fell to Moscow in mid-February after a months-long assault in which Ukrainian defenders had been outgunned and outnumbered.
In the Ukrinform interview, Syrskyi said his forces would have "definitely" kept their positions if Kyiv had received more ammunition and air defence capabilites from its Western partners.


Russia's attempt to take the city of Kharkiv can't be ruled out, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said on March 29.

In an interview with Ukrinform, Syrskyi said Ukraine's Armed Forces were "taking all measures to adequately respond to such a possibility."

Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, located just over 30 kilometers south of the Russian border, has in recent weeks seen an escalation in strikes from Russian missiles, drones, and air bombs.

A recent report by Latvia-based Russian media outlet Meduza claimed "political elites" have not ruled out that President Vladimir Putin will order a ground offensive against the city.


The Belgian government approved the 25th assistance package for Ukraine, which contains 100 million euros ($107 million) for the maintenance and support of F-16 fighter jets through the international "fighter jet coalition," Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder announced on March 29.


“Denmark is donating 19 F-16 jets to Ukraine, and the government has decided to sell 24 Danish F-16 jets to Argentina,” Lund Poulsen said in a statement, describing the transaction as a “possible sale.”

“The decision to sell the Danish jets to Argentina has been carried out in close collaboration with the American government, who has approved the sale of the US produced aircrafts,” the Danish Defence Ministry noted in the statement.


The U.K. Ministry of Defense is claiming satellite imagery proves that two additional ships were damaged in the Ukrainian cruise missile strikes in Sevastopol on March 24th. This is in addition to another Ropucha class landing ship that we confirmed via satellite imagery had sustained at least some form of damage.

Ukraine originally claimed at least one other Ropucha was damaged, so the one shown in the MoD's satellite imagery would align with that claim. As for the Yury Ivanov class intelligence ship the same assessment says was damaged, it has been targeted by Ukraine before, so an attempt to take it out again would not be surprising. These ships can collect multiple types of intelligence, with their signals intelligence suite being most concerning for Ukraine's military operations.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top