What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

***Official Soccer Discussion Thread*** (1 Viewer)

Ran the simulator. Here's what it spit out:

South Africa

USA

Chile

Serbia

I'd take that draw in a second. Even better was what transpired in Group G:

Brazil

Mexico

Ghana

France

Have a nice season, Mexico :popcorn:

ETA: Just ran it again. This is about 500% more likely to happen than above:

Group G: Spain, USA, Cameroon, Greece

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, Denmark

 
Last edited by a moderator:
CletiusMaximus said:
Steve Tasker said:
ArgentinaUSAIvory CoastGreeceI think this would be a manageable group, actually.
Click to expand...
No chance to advance from that group - zero wins, maybe a point.
Click to expand...
:shrug: I think Greece and the Ivory Coast are beatable. It wouldn't be a lock by any stretch of the imagination, but IMO it's better than a lot of the other possibilities out there...
 
Steve Tasker said:
CletiusMaximus said:
Steve Tasker said:
ArgentinaUSAIvory CoastGreeceI think this would be a manageable group, actually.
Click to expand...
No chance to advance from that group - zero wins, maybe a point.
Click to expand...
:shrug: I think Greece and the Ivory Coast are beatable. It wouldn't be a lock by any stretch of the imagination, but IMO it's better than a lot of the other possibilities out there...
Click to expand...
Of course they are beatable, but the US would be a huge dog against Argentina and Ivory Coast, and would not favored to beat Greece, although that might be a close call. The Ivory Coast roster is made up of players that all play for the biggest clubs throughout the top European leagues. Greece is just 5 years removed from winning the European Cup. Half their team plays together year round for Panathinakos and they have a great tournament coach in Otto Rehagel.
 
Okay I did a run :lmao:

Group D: Holland, US, Paraguay, Serbia (about a par group)

Group A was kinda funny and would make the soccer world unhappy methinks: South Africa, Honduras(!), Uruguay, France

Group B was Brzil, Mexico, Ghana, Slovenia

2nd run: Group G: Germany, US, Cote d'Ivoire, Slovenia

3rd run: Group A: South Africa, US, Uruguay, France

4th run: Group D: Holland, US, Cameroon, France :lol: Naturally Mexico gets South Africa, Slovakia, and Chile

5th run: Group D: Germany, US, Algeria, Denmark (I'd take it). Especially with Mexico getting Spain, Portugal and Chile.

6th run started good but...: South Africa, US, Chile, France

7th run I'd take: Group G: Spain, US, Algeria, Denmark

Last run for all the marbles... *sigh* it rings the most true: Group E: Germany, US, Ghana Portugal. This also has the most comical Group A: Denmark, Paraguay, South Africa, North Korea. It also features the typically comical Brazil group: Honduras, Algeria, Serbia.

-QG

 
Okay I couldn't help it and did a couple more and came up with this comical one:

Group A: South Africa, Honduras, Chile, Slovenia!

our Group was a more neutralish: Holland, US, Uruguay, Serbia

As for my official guess for us, here goes :lol: We only get screwed every other draw, so this will be a "fair" draw in the sense that it'll be no gimmee but we'll at least have a hope:

England, Chile, US, Denmark.

-QG

 
The US loses to Ivory Coast 70% of the time in Africa, and draws 20% of the time IMO. They are really dangerous on attack and have the speed to stifle the US counter attack. They won't bunker and they WILL get their shots off. Drogba puts in at least 2 without Gooch there to slow him down.

The US beats Greece 25% of the time and draws 60% of the time. This is a much better matchup for the US as the Greeks play a shutdown defense looking for those few cracks to exploit, not usually via a counter but rather through a mismatch or misplayed ball.

Argentina poses an even worse matchup for the US, which will be eaten alive on the flanks by Argentina's speed. They could line up Tevez on the right, Messi in the middle, and Aguero on the left and absolutely destroy the US defense. I'm not buying the "they played crappy in qualifiers so they'll play crappy in the tournament" business. This is the bigs and Argentina will pull their heads out of their ### and make it out of the groups stage. In terms of talent, they are a top 3 or 4 team. That can't be denied.

 
Okay I just had to crunch a few more numbers. I love love love this stuff.

Based on the October 09 rankings (since those were used for the seedings), the average group for us would have an average ranking of 20.208 for the other teams. The average ranking of all other teams in the tournament is 26.613.

If you consider a potential "Group of Death" team to be anybody in the top 1/2 of the rankings amongst the teams in the world cup, then the following chart breaks down the probability of us having 0, 1, 2, or 3 other such teams in our group. Having 3 such teams clearly would make for a "Group of Death" scenario. Having 2 such teams isn't ideal either.

Anyhow, here's the probabilities:

0 other teams ranked in the top half: Probability: 1/24 (4.17%)

1 other team ranked in the top half: Probability: 1/3 (33.33%)

2 other teams ranked in the top half (group of death lite): Probability: 11/24 (45.83%)

3 other teams ranked in the top half (serious group of death): Probability: 1/6 (16.67%)

For any one of the 24 teams not in our pot, the odds of drawing them in our group is exactly the same for all of them: 1/8

For particular combos of two teams in pot 1 and pot 3, the percentages skew a bit differently:

SOUTH AFRICA CHILE 0.041666667

SOUTH AFRICA PARAGUAY 0.041666667

SOUTH AFRICA URUGUAY 0.041666667

SOUTH AFRICA CAMEROON 0

SOUTH AFRICA COTE D'IVORIE 0

SOUTH AFRICA ALGERIA 0

SOUTH AFRICA NIGERIA 0

SOUTH AFRICA GHANA 0

BRAZIL CHILE 0

BRAZIL PARAGUAY 0

BRAZIL URUGUAY 0

BRAZIL CAMEROON 0.025

BRAZIL COTE D'IVORIE 0.025

BRAZIL ALGERIA 0.025

BRAZIL NIGERIA 0.025

BRAZIL GHANA 0.025

ARGENTINA CHILE 0

ARGENTINA PARAGUAY 0

ARGENTINA URUGUAY 0

ARGENTINA CAMEROON 0.025

ARGENTINA COTE D'IVORIE 0.025

ARGENTINA ALGERIA 0.025

ARGENTINA NIGERIA 0.025

ARGENTINA GHANA 0.025

SPAIN CHILE 0.016666667

SPAIN PARAGUAY 0.016666667

SPAIN URUGUAY 0.016666667

SPAIN CAMEROON 0.015

SPAIN COTE D'IVORIE 0.015

SPAIN ALGERIA 0.015

SPAIN NIGERIA 0.015

SPAIN GHANA 0.015

NETHERLANDS CHILE 0.016666667

NETHERLANDS PARAGUAY 0.016666667

NETHERLANDS URUGUAY 0.016666667

NETHERLANDS CAMEROON 0.015

NETHERLANDS COTE D'IVORIE 0.015

NETHERLANDS ALGERIA 0.015

NETHERLANDS NIGERIA 0.015

NETHERLANDS GHANA 0.015

ITALY CHILE 0.016666667

ITALY PARAGUAY 0.016666667

ITALY URUGUAY 0.016666667

ITALY CAMEROON 0.015

ITALY COTE D'IVORIE 0.015

ITALY ALGERIA 0.015

ITALY NIGERIA 0.015

ITALY GHANA 0.015

GERMANY CHILE 0.016666667

GERMANY PARAGUAY 0.016666667

GERMANY URUGUAY 0.016666667

GERMANY CAMEROON 0.015

GERMANY COTE D'IVORIE 0.015

GERMANY ALGERIA 0.015

GERMANY NIGERIA 0.015

GERMANY GHANA 0.015

ENGLAND CHILE 0.016666667

ENGLAND PARAGUAY 0.016666667

ENGLAND URUGUAY 0.016666667

ENGLAND CAMEROON 0.015

ENGLAND COTE D'IVORIE 0.015

ENGLAND ALGERIA 0.015

ENGLAND NIGERIA 0.015

ENGLAND GHANA 0.015

Divide the above probabilites by 8 to get the exact chance of having the 2 teams above and any given team from pot 4 as for our group.

For example the odds of us getting the maximum doom group of Brazil, Cote D'Ivorie, and France is 0.025 divided by 8 or (1/320)

The odds of the :nerd: group of South Africa, Uruguay, and Slovenia is: 0.04166667 divided by 8 or (1/192)

So there you go :lmao:

On to the Group of Death!!! :mellow:

-QG

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Once the draw is done and everyone starts debating how the groups will finish, keep the knockout brackets in mind. Here they are:

Code: 
1A v 2B	   ]---1C v 2D	|		   |---1E v 2F	|	   ]---1G v 2H1B v 2A	   ]---1D v 2C	|		   |---1F v 2E	|	   ]---1H v 2G
 
Mjolnirs said:
Once the draw is done and everyone starts debating how the groups will finish, keep the knockout brackets in mind. Here they are:

Code: 
[b]1A v 2B[/b]	   ]---1C v 2D	|		   |---1E v 2F	|	   ]---1G v 2H[b]1B v 2A[/b]	   ]---1D v 2C	|		   |---1F v 2E	|	   ]---1H v 2G
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure that if we don't get drawn into group A (South Africa) we want to be drawn into group B no matter what since S Africa has a decent shot of advancing no matter what and they have the highest probability of being the weakest advancing team.
 
Desert_Power said:
Drunken Cowboy said:
Sammy3469 said:
Nate Silver

More Nate Silver

Basically, unless we get lucky, we're pretty much screwed
Click to expand...
I hate the draw format for the WC.
Click to expand...
I don't understand why they don't just put all of the teams in pots based on rankings and draw them that way.
Click to expand...
They don't want to end up with teams from the same continent in the same group. I guess I somewhat understand that, but it is still way better than the current format.
 
Drunken Cowboy said:
Desert_Power said:
Drunken Cowboy said:
Sammy3469 said:
Nate Silver

More Nate Silver

Basically, unless we get lucky, we're pretty much screwed
Click to expand...
I hate the draw format for the WC.
Click to expand...
I don't understand why they don't just put all of the teams in pots based on rankings and draw them that way.
Click to expand...
They don't want to end up with teams from the same continent in the same group. I guess I somewhat understand that, but it is still way better than the current format.
Click to expand...
I don't get why that matters so much. Most of the teams in the knockout rounds are from the same continent anyways.
 
Desert_Power said:
Drunken Cowboy said:
Desert_Power said:
Drunken Cowboy said:
Sammy3469 said:
Nate Silver

More Nate Silver

Basically, unless we get lucky, we're pretty much screwed
Click to expand...
I hate the draw format for the WC.
Click to expand...
I don't understand why they don't just put all of the teams in pots based on rankings and draw them that way.
Click to expand...
They don't want to end up with teams from the same continent in the same group. I guess I somewhat understand that, but it is still way better than the current format.
Click to expand...
I don't get why that matters so much. Most of the teams in the knockout rounds are from the same continent anyways.
Click to expand...
It's a vestige of when most of the teams were European. I don't have a problem per se with making sure there's some geographic representation in each group, but there are much more equitable ways than they are currently doing
 
Sammy3469 said:
It's a vestige of when most of the teams were European. I don't have a problem per se with making sure there's some geographic representation in each group, but there are much more equitable ways than they are currently doing
Click to expand...
The European teams don't play each other and qualifying, so I would have very little problem with them playing each other.
 
Texas Football said:
Has anyone ever heard of, or watched Devann Yao? He is a trialist at Ipswich Town and apparently is going to be offered a contract.

I've read a few articles on him tonight, but that's about it. He bounced around Europe throughout his teens. Is currently 19.

Any insights?

ETA: Best article so far and apparently a contract has been offered at this point.

http://www.thisisamericansoccer.com/tias-s...-of-devann-yao/
Click to expand...
Amazing article. The messages afterward are pretty cool too- crazy to see the kid and his friends actually chime in. Makes me curious to follow his development at Ipswich... funny to read the US message posters wishing him to play in the USL and his immediate dismissal of that idea- the kid obviously has talent and professionalism if Keane signed him. Kinda sad state of affairs that US Soccer is inable to see the same talent.
 
Here we go ;)

One last bit of math know, based on the Oct 09 rankings of the teams (1 to 32) the following was the "fairest" draw I could come up with, that is with the groups all being no more one off the average sum of ranks of 66:

Groups are in No Particular arrangement:

31) RSA, 11) Switzerland, 14) Chile, 10) USA

1) Brazil, 29) Slovenia, 22) Algeria, 15) Mexico

2) Spain, 24) Slovakia, 20) Uruguay, 19) Australia

3) Netherlands, 21) Denmark, 16) Cote D'Ivorie, 27) Japan

4) Italy, 13) Greece, 18) Paraguay, 30) New Zealand

5) Germany, 9) Portugal, 26) Ghana, 25) Honduras

6) Argentina, 11) Serbia, 12) Cameroon, 32) North Korea

7) England, 8) France, 23) Nigeria, 28) South Korea.

But here we go for real!!

:coffee:

-QG

 
Portugal and Greece are the teams you don't want to be paired with from pot 4. France is not the force they once were neither the US nor NL should fear them.

 
Sammy3469 said:
wilked said:
WatchingWhen will something actually happen?
Click to expand...
12:45
Click to expand...
+True that :excited:About an 80% chance they actually draw a ball from a 1-ball pot for South Africa :goodposting:Btw, boooooooooo Sepp Blatter.Greece is strange - they are the kings of 'negative football'. If they take 1-0 lead on you they'll just stall and stall zzzzzzzzz.I also hope that we draw the weakest opponent in our group in the first game so we can (hopefully) get off to a good start.Glad to see Hillary is taking part to make part to make part to take part as Blatter said...-QGETA Woohoo Page 300!!!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
El Floppo said:
Texas Football said:
Has anyone ever heard of, or watched Devann Yao? He is a trialist at Ipswich Town and apparently is going to be offered a contract.

I've read a few articles on him tonight, but that's about it. He bounced around Europe throughout his teens. Is currently 19.

Any insights?

ETA: Best article so far and apparently a contract has been offered at this point.

http://www.thisisamericansoccer.com/tias-s...-of-devann-yao/
Click to expand...
Amazing article. The messages afterward are pretty cool too- crazy to see the kid and his friends actually chime in. Makes me curious to follow his development at Ipswich... funny to read the US message posters wishing him to play in the USL and his immediate dismissal of that idea- the kid obviously has talent and professionalism if Keane signed him. Kinda sad state of affairs that US Soccer is inable to see the same talent.
Click to expand...
Jay DeMerit's story is somewhat similar - University of Illinois, had a cup of coffee with Chicago's USL team, no MSL offers, wasn't drafted, etc. Goes to Europe, and a year later he headed home the game winning goal that promoted Watford into the Premier League (and was named man of the match).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

El Floppo
Official US Women's soccer thread: Gold Cup Final- US 1 - Brazil 0!
67 68 69
Replies
3K
Views
127K
Charlie Steiner
Charlie Steiner
SIDA!
The Official Thread for Official Threads - MASTER LIST
Replies
1
Views
282
mquinnjr
mquinnjr
Ramsay Hunt Experience
***Official Soccer Discussion Thread***
988 989 990
Replies
49K
Views
1M
Mjolnirs
Mjolnirs

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top