yeah, but in reality, any result against england is a bonus. so to finish 2nd - which is what you have to do to advance - you must beat the two weakest teams possible from their respective pods.i think that's amazingly simple.You're only looking at it from one angle. One could also say that the reason that the teams in our pool from Pots 3 and 4 have such long odds is because they are in a pool with the strongest Pot 2 team and the third-strongest seeded team.The truth is probably a bit of both.Looking at our draw another way, here are the Odds broken down by pot:
Pot One:
Spain 9/2
Brazil 11/2
England 5/1
Argentina 8/1
Italy 11/1
Germany 12/1
Holland 14/1
South Africa 125/1
Pot Two:
USA 66/1
Mexico 125/1
Australia 125/1
Japan 200/1
South Korea 250/1
Honduras 200/1
North Korea 750/1
New Zealand 750/1
Pot Three:
Ivory Coast 33/1
Ghana 50/1
Chile 40/1
Paraguay 50/1
Nigeria 80/1
Cameroon 80/1
Uruguay 100/1
Algeria 200/1
Pot Four:
France 16/1
Portugal 25/1
Serbia 80/1
Denmark 100/1
Greece 100/1
Switzerland 100/1
Slovakia 150/1
Slovenia 150/1
So according to Vegas (Monte Carlo?), we drew the weakest team from both pots three and four. Just incredible.
and that's what the odds are telling us: US is 66:1 but of the pot 2 teams is far and away the best odds - almost 2:1 better than mexico.