***Official Super Bowl LII Thread*** - Eagles vs Patriots (1 Viewer)

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

This is so awesome, a month ago even Eagle fans were wondering about Foles after he torched the Giants (like everyone did) then looked awful against the Raiders at home, and bad against the Cowboys in the 2 or 3 series that he played in that game. I don't think the Eagles were as bad as they looked against the Raiders or as great as the looked against the Vikings. They are some where in the middle of that, they can beat the Patriots, but they are rightfully underdogs and going to have to play at worst their B + game to beat the Patriots unless the Patriots decide they are the 2017 Vikings.

Foles didnt look great againsy the falcons either. Led em to 15 points....

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

IMO, the line is too high. How many SB's has NE been in? How many of them have they won by 7 or more? Compared to their other 7 trips to the SB, where does this version of NE stack up? NE will be lucky to win this game.

Wow thats not like you david lucky to win?

 

[msudaisy26]

Foles didnt look great againsy the falcons either. Led em to 15 points....

True, I gave him a pass on that because of a combination of Atlanta having a decent defense, basically 3 weeks of from a game that mattered, and nerves for a guy that hadn't started a playoff game in a long time.

 

[Insein]

Foles didnt look great againsy the falcons either. Led em to 15 points....

Foles had a pretty efficient game against the Falcons. Yea he didn't throw TDs but he was accurate and didn't throw any INTs. Good 3rd down conversion rate too.

 

[Black Box]

This was addressed in the BB press conference after the game.   The option play to Grant was a wrinkle in the offense for this game & something the Pats weren’t ready for.   The guy had 4 targets all year with 3 catches for 41 yds.   He went 3 for 59 yesterday.  BB mentions something about that wasn’t something they showed on film (?) or a formation they didn’t run a lot during the season.  In hoodie speak this is the equivalent of “that shocked the hell out of us and we never saw it coming.”

I think the take away for the Eagles is that they need to show looks that they haven’t shown all season.  You need wrinkles to catch NE on things they haven’t game planned for because if it’s out there the Pats coaching staff is going to cover it during the game preparation and they are going to take away your best option. 

In the NE/Jax thread someone mentioned that game would be determined by Jax’s ability to adjust to the adjustments NE made at half time.  I see a lot ppl saying Jax played not to lose but maybe NE made adjustments to correct the issues and Jax didn’t have an answer.  The stuff that was working suddenly wasn’t.  

I do think that Foles getting more comfortable with the offense and the relative lack of game tape on Foles (this year) help the Eagles in this regards.  They have the ability to add things in that they may have been working on.  

The question is what will the Eagles coaches do in the first half to surprise NE and how will they adjust after NE changes things.  

A coach needs to take this to the next level and implement two offensive game plans against NE: one for the first half, and another for the second. Then make the switch at half time, no matter the score.

 

[JuniorGong]

Call me crazy but I feel like Philly will get the lead and the Pats will end up coming from behind and winning the game.

 

[JuniorNB]

True, I gave him a pass on that because of a combination of Atlanta having a decent defense, basically 3 weeks of from a game that mattered, and nerves for a guy that hadn't started a playoff game in a long time.

Also very cold and windy. He looked terrible in the frigid cold against the Raiders too.  That wasn't an issue yesterday and shouldn't be inside the dome in two weeks. 

 

[dhockster]

Foles didnt look great againsy the falcons either. Led em to 15 points....

Eagles had a missed extra point and a fumble by Ajayi when they were in field goal range. So they should have had 19 points. So he led them on 5 potential scoring drives (1 TD, 4 FGs). Last night he also led them on 4 scoring drives but this time it was 4 TD's and 1 FG. I think Pederson is figuring out what works for Foles and Foles is getting more comfortable the more he plays.

 

[efactor]

Last night's game was definitely great in terms of flags.  I'm referring to the NFL in general.  I think there was one other Eagles game where there were minimal flags and it was noticed and appreciated as well.

Yep.  Same with the Pats/Jags game.  Way more enjoyable to watch a game when they aren't penalties every other play.  NFL is so excessive in the regular season. 

 

[ProstheticRGK]

Foles had a pretty efficient game against the Falcons. Yea he didn't throw TDs but he was accurate and didn't throw any INTs. Good 3rd down conversion rate too.

And, you could see things starting to “click” later, in that game.

 

[voiceofunreason]

You just described the NE game plan for years. Let the other team make mistakes. I just posted a minute ago that in the playoffs, NE has gone 16-0 when winning the turnover battle. BB has figured out that opponents will make dumb mistakes whether it be in play calling, turnovers, penalties, clock management, coaching, etc. That's their thing.

They are winning on mystique without any doubt. The hawks and falcons tried to outsmart them. They didn't think they could beat them playing good, smart football. Had to be heroes, and gave the game away. Jags aren't much better.

 

[voiceofunreason]

Eagles had a missed extra point and a fumble by Ajayi when they were in field goal range. So they should have had 19 points. So he led them on 5 potential scoring drives (1 TD, 4 FGs). Last night he also led them on 4 scoring drives but this time it was 4 TD's and 1 FG. I think Pederson is figuring out what works for Foles and Foles is getting more comfortable the more he plays.

I hope you're right but don't guys like him usually have a couple of good games, then defenses adjust and they get crushed?

 

[TwinTurbo]

So it's cool that the two coaches that probably rely most on analytics and game theory, are the two guys that made it to the Superbowl. Hopefully more teams start doing this and realize that the uber conservative coaching style is actually the most reckless and lowers your chances of winning. Go for it on 4th down in more situations, go for TDs instead of FGs, stop making stupid time management decisions. It all seems so easy but so many coaches do it wrong.

 

[dhockster]

I hope you're right but don't guys like him usually have a couple of good games, then defenses adjust and they get crushed?

You could be right. But Foles is spreading it around, so Foles is not overly reliant on one receiver. The Eagles continue to run the ball, so that tends to keep the pass rush honest. in Foles 4 full games, he has been sacked only 5 times. It will be interesting to see if the Patriots try to blitz to get some pressure on Foles, and if they do, how he picks it up and reacts to it.

When you say guys like him, I assume you mean back-up QB's. I think Foles could be an effective starting QB in the NFL again, he just had the unfortunate circumstance to be traded to QB hell under Jeff Fisher. He is under contract at least through next year, but if he gets out in the QB market in 2019, I think he might get a starting gig again.

If a defense was going to crush Foles, I would have assumed it was the Vikings that was going to do it, but that didn't happen. Obviously, Belicheck could come up with a plan to shut down the Eagles offense, I just don't think it will be as easy as a lot of media types will make it out to be.

 

[LongDuckDong]

Pats fan here. Agreed with those who pointed out how weak the AFC was this year. Seattle didn't make the playoffs and would have been either the best or second best team in the AFC. 

Bigtime respect for Philly - clearly they defensively are outstanding and while there was a little bit of running downhill against a broken MIN team in the second half, that offense looked outstanding. I don't understand a line greater than 3 in this game - first because it's the NEP in the Super Bowl and history says three points is a pretty accurate number. Secondly because I think the RPO offensive gameplan is going to be difficult for the Patriots to play against. 

Comes down to Foles on 3rd downs. To me you don't beat the Pats with big plays consistently, it comes down to converting 3rd and 4-8 consistently. If the Jag coaching staff hadn't put the emergency brake on their offense in the 4th Q (great Twitter thread on this), they are playing in 2 weeks. 

With the Patriots you know what you're going to get, a lot of short stuff, disciplined as hell on both sides, and a team that won't quit down two scores. Obviously I am biased, but I'd suspect they are a tough team to plan for given it is hard to make them quit no matter what has happened. 

I will say this - anyone not respecting the job Pederson did with this team is just a troll - to hold this team together after Wentz went down is something I respect a lot. 

My guess is Philly has the ball late in the fourth with the chance to win a title - maybe a 3-4 point spread with less than 5-6 minutes left. Matt Ryan had that chance. Russell Wilson had that chance, Eli Manning had it twice and went 2/2. Delhomme took Carolina down to tie in 2003 with that scenario, Warner took STL down to tie (actually same WR scored both of those TD) in 2001 - McNabb actually had that chance inside a minute down 3 - history repeats itself I'd guess and Nick Foles decides which side of history he sits on.

I'm not rooting for PHI but they are a very worthy adversary and if they win will have earned every bit of the glory they will earn. If TB12 does it one more time - well, at some point to come back down 25 with 17 minutes left in one super bowl and then down 10 with 9 minutes left against that defense...well I'd say they've earned what they get. Should be fun.

 

[JuniorGong]

Pats fan here. Agreed with those who pointed out how weak the AFC was this year. Seattle didn't make the playoffs and would have been either the best or second best team in the AFC. 

Bigtime respect for Philly - clearly they defensively are outstanding and while there was a little bit of running downhill against a broken MIN team in the second half, that offense looked outstanding. I don't understand a line greater than 3 in this game - first because it's the NEP in the Super Bowl and history says three points is a pretty accurate number. Secondly because I think the RPO offensive gameplan is going to be difficult for the Patriots to play against. 

Comes down to Foles on 3rd downs. To me you don't beat the Pats with big plays consistently, it comes down to converting 3rd and 4-8 consistently. If the Jag coaching staff hadn't put the emergency brake on their offense in the 4th Q (great Twitter thread on this), they are playing in 2 weeks. 

With the Patriots you know what you're going to get, a lot of short stuff, disciplined as hell on both sides, and a team that won't quit down two scores. Obviously I am biased, but I'd suspect they are a tough team to plan for given it is hard to make them quit no matter what has happened. 

I will say this - anyone not respecting the job Pederson did with this team is just a troll - to hold this team together after Wentz went down is something I respect a lot. 

My guess is Philly has the ball late in the fourth with the chance to win a title - maybe a 3-4 point spread with less than 5-6 minutes left. Matt Ryan had that chance. Russell Wilson had that chance, Eli Manning had it twice and went 2/2. Delhomme took Carolina down to tie in 2003 with that scenario, Warner took STL down to tie (actually same WR scored both of those TD) in 2001 - McNabb actually had that chance inside a minute down 3 - history repeats itself I'd guess and Nick Foles decides which side of history he sits on.

I'm not rooting for PHI but they are a very worthy adversary and if they win will have earned every bit of the glory they will earn. If TB12 does it one more time - well, at some point to come back down 25 with 17 minutes left in one super bowl and then down 10 with 9 minutes left against that defense...well I'd say they've earned what they get. Should be fun.

Seattle wouldn’t have been close to the second best team in the AFC, that is a complete joke. They lost to the Titans and the Jaguars in the regular season.

 

[Anarchy99]

In the statistical outliers category, since 2001 NE has only had 4 streaks where they went more than a game without forcing a turnover. In 2002, they went 2 games and then forced 2 turnovers the next game. In 2005, they went 3 games without forcing a turnover . . . and then forced 2 turnovers the next game. In 2016, they went 3 games without forcing a turnover . . . and then forced 2 turnovers the next game. The Patriots are now in their longest turnover drought in the BB era. They have played 4 consecutive games without forcing a turnover. They have never gone 5 games.

PHI did not have a turnover against the Vikings. From 2014 through 2017, the Eagles have only had back to back turnover free games once.

 

[modogg]

Seattle wouldn’t have been close to the second best team in the AFC, that is a complete joke. They lost to the Titans and the Jaguars in the regular season.

patriots lost to Cutler and the Dolphins   hard to get lower than that

 

[JuniorGong]

patriots lost to Cutler and the Dolphins   hard to get lower than that

Yeah, definitely been a disappointing year for New England.

 

[Anarchy99]

patriots lost to Cutler and the Dolphins   hard to get lower than that

NE does not fare well in two destinations: MIA and DEN. Brady has gone 7-9 playing in Miami and 4-7 playing in Denver. Both of those franchises have had some years when they were less than stellar, yet NE still lost. IMO, that has nothing to do with how good NE is or how weak / strong the conference is.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

patriots lost to Cutler and the Dolphins   hard to get lower than that

They seem to always lose on the roadin miami

 

[modogg]

NE does not fare well in two destinations: MIA and DEN. Brady has gone 7-9 playing in Miami and 4-7 playing in Denver. Both of those franchises have had some years when they were less than stellar, yet NE still lost. IMO, that has nothing to do with how good NE is or how weak / strong the conference is.

yeah weird stuff like that does make NFL fun. i was only pointing out the prior post that suggested Seattle was not a good team because they lost to Jags and Titans.

to be honest, New Englnd shouldn't even be who we are discussing, Jags by all accounts should have not lost that. of course that is the difference of playoff experience vs. none, but Jags were the better team and few calls didn't help them (Jack should have got a TD for his strip of Lewis, who i love, but refs called it dead for no reason)

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

There's a huge advantage to other teams and players watching you come from behind and win so many big the games over the years. The young Defenders on team like Jacksonville have seen this since they were kids. When you have a 10 point lead against them and they have a long drive and Brady throws a touchdown pass, that is so psychologically intimidating to teams. They win a lot just on Mystique alone. Team start playing on their heels. Playing not to lose instead of to win. They are completely psyched out by the Patriots. The Pats automatically have that going into every big game they play. And although this Eagles team is Young and fun and are really playing with house money at this point, they are not exempt of this human emotion. I'm just hoping it doesn't come down to that

I've said it before earlier this season and i'll say it again, this version of the patriots is capable of beating anyone and losing to anyone and the latter certainly includes the eagles.

But I disagree (just a little) with the huge advantage ne has from all the winning since I think the other edge of the sword is it highly motivates and challenges their opponents to give them their best every week and athletes like to be challenged. As for the come back wins I think it is intimidating (demoralizing might be better term) for "any" team to give up a lead late. Is it harder for younger less battle hardened teams? Absolutely, but its hard for veteran teams too and thats what becoming a champion is all about.

FWIW:

I dont think ne is as good as they were last year and last yrs team wasn't as good as many of their previous teams. However ne this yr and last does have some things that may be as good or better than many previous yrs and thats mental tuffness, resiliency and coaching. I am not trying to toot their horn im just giving my opinion that I honestly feel they are not as physically talented as previously but they have great coaching and are so mentally tuff they are often able to overcome what they lack in talent. Flame away but I do think bb & tb have an enormous amount to do with instilling and maintaining that mental tuffness and its taken them a long way. They don't always win but they rarely if ever give up, as demonstrated in their last 2 sbs and again yesterday after what could have been (should have been) the devastating Lewis fumble.  

I don't follow the eagles very closely but I know they have a great def front and that is key to beating ne. The eagles have a much better dl and their ol is clearly better imo. Phi probably has better lbs as well but I could be wrong. Ne obviously has the better qb and imo their secondary is better but other than that they are probably pretty close in terms of talent.

Should be a great game!

 

[Football Jones]

It's going to be incredibly hard for Foles to beat them & that's what he's going to have to do. The best chance the Eagles have is to be dominant on the ground, but I don't think Pederson will stick with it.

I see a huge intangible edge for the Pats. As much as people rag them, they just get it done. 

I could easily see this getting ugly, but if Philly can win on 3rd downs, they've got a chance with some breaks.

 

[Boston]

patriots lost to Cutler and the Dolphins   hard to get lower than that

Losing to the Jets?

 

[Football Jones]

I think the point spread is about right. I don't see a clear betting edge either way. Nothing I want to put my money on.

My initial thought was the line was too low, but a higher line doesn't hold up historically.

 

[Skeletore Eh]

It's going to be incredibly hard for Foles to beat them & that's what he's going to have to do. The best chance the Eagles have is to be dominant on the ground, but I don't think Pederson will stick with it.

I see a huge intangible edge for the Pats. As much as people rag them, they just get it done. 

I could easily see this getting ugly, but if Philly can win on 3rd downs, they've got a chance with some breaks.

pretty obvious you haven't been watching the eagles this year, but thanks for your opinion

 

[JuniorGong]

yeah weird stuff like that does make NFL fun. i was only pointing out the prior post that suggested Seattle was not a good team because they lost to Jags and Titans.

to be honest, New Englnd shouldn't even be who we are discussing, Jags by all accounts should have not lost that. of course that is the difference of playoff experience vs. none, but Jags were the better team and few calls didn't help them (Jack should have got a TD for his strip of Lewis, who i love, but refs called it dead for no reason)

I didn’t claim Seattle wasn’t good, I responded refuting the claim of another poster that said they would have been the best or second best team in the AFC which is a joke. That is like saying Fultz has been the best player in this year’s draft.

 

[Football Jones]

pretty obvious you haven't been watching the eagles this year, but thanks for your opinion

I've watched roughly 90% of their plays & the vast majority of every single game. I have Wentz in all but one of my dynasty leagues so I tend to watch them either live or recorded.

I give them about a 20% to 25% chance to beat the Pats. What's your opinion?

 

[Anarchy99]

Jack should have got a TD for his strip of Lewis, who i love, but refs called it dead for no reason.

It wasn’t for no reason. I believe by rule when two players are on the ground and one strips the ball from the other, that is considered down by contact. There is no doubt the two players touched each other. So when the defender was on the ground and gained possession, he was considered already touched by Lewis. 

ETA: The reason why the play was not reviewable in terms of whether he was down by contact was the whistle was blown. I can’t remember where I saw it, but the explanation I read was that a strip is considered a dead play. The league hasn’t really explained this play very well, other than to say the whistle had blown so it was not reviewable. 

 

[bucksoh]

I see the eagles taking a 14-0 lead when the Refs kick in like they always do.  Brady mounts another miraculous 4th quarter comeback to win the game 24-21.  

 

[modogg]

It wasn’t for no reason. I believe by rule when two players are on the ground and one strips the ball from the other, that is considered down by contact. There is no doubt the two players touched each other. So when the defender was on the ground and gained possession, he was considered already touched by Lewis. 

makes sense. just seems like a lot of penalty controveries always surround the Pats. i'm hoping for everyone's sake the refs don't over-involve themselves in the SB. like was mentioned a bunch in the NFCCG thread, there weren't a ton of flags in Minny-Phi and it did make a more enjoyable exp. for a lot of people. no controversy is fun for everyone

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Again with the pts spread and the Eagles not getting any respect.

Does anyone on this board know why Vegas sets a line the way they do?

Anyone?

 

[Anarchy99]

Again with the pts spread and the Eagles not getting any respect.

Does anyone on this board know why Vegas sets a line the way they do?

Anyone?

Sure. Brady and five rings trumps Foles as a late season replacement for Wentz. The spread is determined based on how Vegas thinks people will bet with roughly even money on either side. 

 

[dhockster]

Again with the pts spread and the Eagles not getting any respect.

Does anyone on this board know why Vegas sets a line the way they do?

Anyone?

I, for one, understand that the point spread is meant to get equal money on both sides. I don't take that as disrespect. More so, the majority of analysts picking the favorites in the two Eagles games because they did lazy analysis and didn't factor in how good the Eagles defense is at home, how bad Zimmer's record in the playoffs is as a head coach or coordinator (1-7 before yesterday's game), or how Foles isn't as bad a QB as he showed in St. Louis where he, Keenum, Bradford, and Goff were in QB hell. Also, I think a lot of analysts watched the Eagles/Raiders game which was in such bad conditions and concluded that was what Foles was. Foles actually outperformed Carr in that game, but no one seems to mention that.

 

[Dedfin]

I'm not even sure why they are still scheduling the game.  The Pats will win, guaranteed.  Guaranteed.  There is a guarantee the Pats will win.  There are an infinite number of alternate universes and in all of them the Pats win this game.

 

[JuniorNB]

I'm not even sure why they are still scheduling the game.  The Pats will win, guaranteed.  Guaranteed.  There is a guarantee the Pats will win.  There are an infinite number of alternate universes and in all of them the Pats win this game.

Easy peezy. I mentioned earlier that I would be surprised if they even suit up Brady and Gronk for this one. Why risk the injury for next season?

 

[unckeyherb]

Sorry, but the NE -5 line screams eagles line to me.  BB, Supertom, tons of playoff experience by this team is only enough to offset the Foles impact to get to -5?  Shouldn't it be -12?  Seriously, best qb ever vs backup qb.  My guess is the early money comes in heavy on the pats and by Friday before the game the sharps start betting the other side.  Line at kickoff will be 3.5.  

Birds are taking this one down fellas. 

 

[Amused to Death]

Sorry, but the NE -5 line screams eagles line to me.  BB, Supertom, tons of playoff experience by this team is only enough to offset the Foles impact to get to -5?  Shouldn't it be -12?  Seriously, best qb ever vs backup qb.  My guess is the early money comes in heavy on the pats and by Friday before the game the sharps start betting the other side.  Line at kickoff will be 3.5.  

Birds are taking this one down fellas. 

Wasn't it higher (NE -7 vs. Eagles?) before the Conference Championship games?

 

[unckeyherb]

Think so.  It opened (I thought) at -6.5 right after the game last night

 

[Amused to Death]

Think so.  It opened (I thought) at -6.5 right after the game last night

And I'm seeing 5, 5.5 now.  So its dropped nearly 2 points.

 

[Anarchy99]

Wasn't it higher (NE -7 vs. Eagles?) before the Conference Championship games?

Yes. But the Eagles looked impressive and the Pats barely won. 

 

[Casting Couch]

Opened at 6 in Vegas, sitting at 5.5 right now. My local still has it at 6.

Not much movement.

 

[jon007]

No big deal what the spread is. We all new the Eagles would be underdogs.

Eagles have embraced the underdog mentality. 

All you need to know is the best teams from each conference are in the Superbowl. 

#1 seeds with same record.

Brady is the only edge the Pats have.

I believe the Eagles jump out in front early and keep the pedal to the metal.

The Jags defense was a joke. Eagles defense will last deep into the 4th.

 

[Casting Couch]

Sorry, but the NE -5 line screams eagles line to me.  BB, Supertom, tons of playoff experience by this team is only enough to offset the Foles impact to get to -5?  Shouldn't it be -12?  Seriously, best qb ever vs backup qb.  My guess is the early money comes in heavy on the pats and by Friday before the game the sharps start betting the other side.  Line at kickoff will be 3.5.  

Birds are taking this one down fellas. 

Minimal line movement, between 5.5 and 6.

I am already on the points, but New England has what it takes to win the close ones on the biggest stage. The moment will be too much for Foles.

New England 30 Philly 27

 

[Anarchy99]

Brady is the only edge the Pats have.

Bill Belichick says hi.

 

[msudaisy26]

Bill Belichick says hi.

I heard of this guy named Gronkowski, seems like a made a up name, but I heard he is good. 

 

[jon007]

I've got a few names myself but I'll wait for their proper introductions. 

You Pats fans are impossible.

Better start working on your excuses.

Here's one.

Brady's mangina swelled up.

 

[fred_1_15301]

yeah weird stuff like that does make NFL fun. i was only pointing out the prior post that suggested Seattle was not a good team because they lost to Jags and Titans.

to be honest, New Englnd shouldn't even be who we are discussing, Jags by all accounts should have not lost that. of course that is the difference of playoff experience vs. none, but Jags were the better team and few calls didn't help them (Jack should have got a TD for his strip of Lewis, who i love, but refs called it dead for no reason)

And the Steelers "should" have won against the Pats in the regular season matchup.  Then they would have beaten the Titans at home in the divisional round and then played the Pats at home in the AFC championship game.

Or they would have just lost to the Titans at home       

 

[fred_1_15301]

I heard of this guy named Gronkowski, seems like a made a up name, but I heard he is good. 

What's the deal with him?  I thought he had a concussion.  Is he definitely playing?  I had to care for 2 toddlers so I missed most of the game and haven't really looked at any of the updates.