Optimal Strategy for Dynasty Startup Strategy (1 Viewer)

[donkeyb]

I'll be taking part in my first every dynasty league in a few days when we hold our startup auction. I'm very torn on how I should approach this. I love the fact its an auction and I can shape my team in the direction I want to. My problem is I keep waffling on how I want to attack.

Over the years I been very successful in redraft leagues by loading up with depth and talent at RB and WR while waiting on QB and TE. This approach has been even more successful since I mostly play in guppy leagues where QBs are massively overvalued IMO. So just when I'm getting excited about attacking my dynasty in a similar manner I hear this Matt Waldman guy (and others) talking about career longevity being better with QB, WR, and TE. And if you want to be competitive longer you should target elite QBs, WRs, and TEs. The idea makes a lot of sense to me, but puts me a little bit out of my comfort zone, since I won't be able to spend much on elite RBs if I'm targeting an elite QB, WR, and TE. Personally, I just want to dominate my league even if that means a complete 180 in my normal draft strategy.

My question to those experienced in dynasty leagues is this: looking back on the dynasty leagues you've played in what has been the most successfully built teams from the beginning? A better question might be: if you could get a redo knowing what you know now, how would you build your team? I know the start up draft is only part of overall dynasty success, but I want to get off to the best possible start.

League roster settings are 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1RB/WR/TE flex, 1TE, 1D/ST, 1K, 15 bench spots.

 

[chickensoup]

Depends on your goals but unless it's a home league or one where you deposit next years league fees I'd prefere to win now rather than try to build for the future.. However, saying that you can get by on low end RB1high RB 2s on the cheap in dynasty and still get stud WR/QBs. Starting the year with say SJax/FJax/Reggie bush as your 3 starting caliber RB is cheap and allows you to go after guts like AJ Green or Julio and a stud QB like Brady (cheap due to age).

Or you can do it with targeting Rodgers and go for WR like Maclin and Stevie Johnson. Or any combo of what I said.

 

[DoubleG]

A quick point if I may...

In dynasty start ups, people often over-value youth. One thing to keep in mind is that someone is going to win the league THIS season. Why not start your dynasty career by playing the houses money? What I mean is guys like Steve Smith, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Tom Brady, Brees, Gates, Witten, SJax, Turner, etc. will all go cheaper than they probably should. Snag some of those guys, while people overpay for guys like Floyd, David Wilson, Pead, Hillman, Bradford, Kendall Wright, Blackmon, etc.

Using this theory, I not only won the first season, but 4 of the first 7 in a dynasty league.

 

[donkeyb]

Depends on your goals but unless it's a home league or one where you deposit next years league fees I'd prefere to win now rather than try to build for the future.. However, saying that you can get by on low end RB1high RB 2s on the cheap in dynasty and still get stud WR/QBs. Starting the year with say SJax/FJax/Reggie bush as your 3 starting caliber RB is cheap and allows you to go after guts like AJ Green or Julio and a stud QB like Brady (cheap due to age).Or you can do it with targeting Rodgers and go for WR like Maclin and Stevie Johnson. Or any combo of what I said.

I definitely want to win this season. So if you think this is the best way to go, I'm definitely going to consider it.

 

[donkeyb]

A quick point if I may...In dynasty start ups, people often over-value youth. One thing to keep in mind is that someone is going to win the league THIS season. Why not start your dynasty career by playing the houses money? What I mean is guys like Steve Smith, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Tom Brady, Brees, Gates, Witten, SJax, Turner, etc. will all go cheaper than they probably should. Snag some of those guys, while people overpay for guys like Floyd, David Wilson, Pead, Hillman, Bradford, Kendall Wright, Blackmon, etc.Using this theory, I not only won the first season, but 4 of the first 7 in a dynasty league.

I really like this idea. While everyone is zigging your zagging and scooping up proven producers at a discount because of age.

 

[baconisgood]

One thing you can do in an auction is to throw out some quality veterans early on to get a feel for which direction other players are going. You don't want to go in looking to build a veteran team and realize halfway through your team that 5-6 other guys have the same plan. If you toss out maybe a Roddy White or a Stephen Jackson before you commit to a strategy you might feel more comfortable following through.

 

[whatadai]

A quick point if I may...In dynasty start ups, people often over-value youth. One thing to keep in mind is that someone is going to win the league THIS season. Why not start your dynasty career by playing the houses money? What I mean is guys like Steve Smith, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Tom Brady, Brees, Gates, Witten, SJax, Turner, etc. will all go cheaper than they probably should. Snag some of those guys, while people overpay for guys like Floyd, David Wilson, Pead, Hillman, Bradford, Kendall Wright, Blackmon, etc.Using this theory, I not only won the first season, but 4 of the first 7 in a dynasty league.

Donkey balls. You just play against horrible owners.

 

[donkeyb]

One thing you can do in an auction is to throw out some quality veterans early on to get a feel for which direction other players are going. You don't want to go in looking to build a veteran team and realize halfway through your team that 5-6 other guys have the same plan. If you toss out maybe a Roddy White or a Stephen Jackson before you commit to a strategy you might feel more comfortable following through.

With talking to a couple of my league mates youth is all that matters to most of these guys. One guy even told me he was going to try to build his team with guys under 27. Personally, I find myself maybe putting too much emphasis on the younger guys.

 

[Concept Coop]

There is no "ideal strategy", in my opinion. A start up draft is about maximizing the collection of value you take in. As the old cliché goes: There's more than one way to skin a cat. But, the owner that walks away with the most value, has the best draft. That value can come in many forms.

I always throw out the "win now vs. win later" talks. I think they have their place, but they're not for me. Get the best roster you can - that's all you can and should do.

Back to balance - If you were to look back at dynasty startups that took place last year, the teams in the best position a year later, are the teams that "hit" on their picks. The teams that drafted the Gronks, Grahams, Newtons, Murrays, Julios, Staffords, etcetera. So, I put myself in a position to be able to take upside players, without it hindering my chances of winning year one - and you can do that.

I personally find that both youth and experience are over drafted. Andre Johnson being treated as a top 5-10 WR, and I wouldn't pay that price in a startup. Give me Victor Cruz a round later, who has nearly as much potential this year (IMO) and will play for an additional 5 seasons.

On the other hand, people are going to start looking for the next Newton/Julio, and draft RG3/Luck, Martin, and Blackmon as sure things. If the potential warrants the risk, there is value. But, if that risk is ignored or downplayed, you surrender value. For every Peterson, there is a Moreno; for every Julio, a Crabtree.

Lastly, use your experience and understanding of the re-draft process and apply it to your startup draft. Fundamentally, they are the same thing; you are acquiring value at pre-arranged price points. Maximize it. Be aware of what your leaguemates are doing. Mock draft every round, so you have an idea of what will happen between your picks. Draft using the same tiering method you would in a re-draft. Trade up or down when you can, targeting the bottom of your tier. When there is a lot of equal value on the board, trade down. When the last 1 or 2 guys on a tier are left, and your 5+ picks away, trade up.

Good luck. Again, remember that it's really about value, not a specific method, or player profile.

 

[DoubleG]

A quick point if I may...In dynasty start ups, people often over-value youth. One thing to keep in mind is that someone is going to win the league THIS season. Why not start your dynasty career by playing the houses money? What I mean is guys like Steve Smith, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Tom Brady, Brees, Gates, Witten, SJax, Turner, etc. will all go cheaper than they probably should. Snag some of those guys, while people overpay for guys like Floyd, David Wilson, Pead, Hillman, Bradford, Kendall Wright, Blackmon, etc.Using this theory, I not only won the first season, but 4 of the first 7 in a dynasty league.

Donkey balls. You just play against horrible owners.

Ummm...no. Several of them have been regulars in the SP before it was even on this site. Several have literally played FF for decades. Many dynasty leagues have several guys who over-value youth - dynasty starts up drafts actually often make it even MORE the case.

 

[donkeyb]

There is no "ideal strategy", in my opinion. A start up draft is about maximizing the collection of value you take in. As the old cliché goes: There's more than one way to skin a cat. But, the owner that walks away with the most value, has the best draft. That value can come in many forms. I always throw out the "win now vs. win later" talks. I think they have their place, but they're not for me. Get the best roster you can - that's all you can and should do.Back to balance - If you were to look back at dynasty startups that took place last year, the teams in the best position a year later, are the teams that "hit" on their picks. The teams that drafted the Gronks, Grahams, Newtons, Murrays, Julios, Staffords, etcetera. So, I put myself in a position to be able to take upside players, without it hindering my chances of winning year one - and you can do that. I personally find that both youth and experience are over drafted. Andre Johnson being treated as a top 5-10 WR, and I wouldn't pay that price in a startup. Give me Victor Cruz a round later, who has nearly as much potential this year (IMO) and will play for an additional 5 seasons. On the other hand, people are going to start looking for the next Newton/Julio, and draft RG3/Luck, Martin, and Blackmon as sure things. If the potential warrants the risk, there is value. But, if that risk is ignored or downplayed, you surrender value. For every Peterson, there is a Moreno; for every Julio, a Crabtree. Lastly, use your experience and understanding of the re-draft process and apply it to your startup draft. Fundamentally, they are the same thing; you are acquiring value at pre-arranged price points. Maximize it. Be aware of what your leaguemates are doing. Mock draft every round, so you have an idea of what will happen between your picks. Draft using the same tiering method you would in a re-draft. Trade up or down when you can, targeting the bottom of your tier. When there is a lot of equal value on the board, trade down. When the last 1 or 2 guys on a tier are left, and your 5+ picks away, trade up. Good luck. Again, remember that it's really about value, not a specific method, or player profile.

Its an auction draft, but I get what your saying.

 

[donkeyb]

Just today Waldman mentioned the concept of "anchoring" your team at QB,WR, or TE. I'm leaning towards anchoring my team at the QB and WR positions, mostly because what I read on this site and from others.

So if I pass on the elite RBs who would you guys recommend targeting on the cheap at RB? I think FJax and SJax have been mentioned. Are they my top targets? Should I just try to load up with 8-10 RB lottery tickets?

 

[EBF]

I don't know that there is an ideal strategy. My best teams have been built using more of a patient, youth-crazy long term approach. I try to draft players whose value will only rise or remain level for the foreseeable future. I have had some success with this method, but I rarely have a good record in the first season. It usually takes a year or two for my teams to find their stride.

I have seen some teams do well with more of a "win now" approach. Age is a big factor in dynasty leagues. Guys like AJ Green, Trent Richardson, and Andrew Luck will cost you an arm and a leg. Older versions of those players like Andre Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Tom Brady will be a lot cheaper, but also have a lot less longevity potential and trade value. You will definitely see some "name" players slip in the draft for this reason. Guys like Witten, Gates, Steve Smith, and Peyton will fall. I have thought about doing an all-out "win now" draft to capitalize on this, but I've never actually had the stones to try it.

My basic strategy is to build a core of elite young-ish players to fill out my starting lineup, and then to use the late rounds to take gambles on high upside young players who have the potential to develop into stars. You will not get high-profile prospects like Justin Blackmon and Doug Martin for cheap, but if you lower your sights and focus on the 2nd-4th round rookies and sophomores then you will be able to snag some high ceiling options for low prices.

If you manage to fill out your lineup with quality starters and you hit 1-2 home runs in the late rounds, you'll be in good position.

In terms of which positions to target, I tend to favor WR. They score a lot of points, have long careers, and less risk of injury. An elite QB is also a nice asset to have, but there are so many good QBs in the NFL right now that I think it's probably wiser to wait and scoop up a fringe player like Schaub or Cutler for cheap. If you invest well at WR and hit a few home runs with sleeper WRs and RBs, you'll always be able to trade for an elite QB later.

 

[donkeyb]

In terms of which positions to target, I tend to favor WR. They score a lot of points, have long careers, and less risk of injury. An elite QB is also a nice asset to have, but there are so many good QBs in the NFL right now that I think it's probably wiser to wait and scoop up a fringe player like Schaub or Cutler for cheap. If you invest well at WR and hit a few home runs with sleeper WRs and RBs, you'll always be able to trade for an elite QB later.

So do you think trying to grab 2 of the following (Julio, Green, Nicks, or CJ)is too much?

 

[DoubleG]

In terms of which positions to target, I tend to favor WR. They score a lot of points, have long careers, and less risk of injury. An elite QB is also a nice asset to have, but there are so many good QBs in the NFL right now that I think it's probably wiser to wait and scoop up a fringe player like Schaub or Cutler for cheap. If you invest well at WR and hit a few home runs with sleeper WRs and RBs, you'll always be able to trade for an elite QB later.

So do you think trying to grab 2 of the following (Julio, Green, Nicks, or CJ)is too much?

Too much? No. I agree with EBF. If you can build around one position, it's WR (especially if it's 1-2-3 starting req. league). WR and QB are probably the best positions to "anchor" your team around - for the reasons EBF stated: long careers, fairly consistant scorers (look at guys like R. White, Calvin, Fitz, etc.), and fewer missed games.

 

[EBF]

In terms of which positions to target, I tend to favor WR. They score a lot of points, have long careers, and less risk of injury. An elite QB is also a nice asset to have, but there are so many good QBs in the NFL right now that I think it's probably wiser to wait and scoop up a fringe player like Schaub or Cutler for cheap. If you invest well at WR and hit a few home runs with sleeper WRs and RBs, you'll always be able to trade for an elite QB later.

So do you think trying to grab 2 of the following (Julio, Green, Nicks, or CJ)is too much?

Nope. Not at all. That would be a good plan. I did a startup earlier this year and basically took a WR with each of my first three picks (there was a trade involved). I feel like you can always trade for a good QB and find RBs in the rookie draft.

 

[_lurker_]

Draft for year two.