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Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Percy Harvin Player Page

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When I think of Percy Harvin, I think of headache. We've heard so much about his headache issues that sometimes his solid play as a wide receiver gets lost in the discussion. I was mildly surprised at the growth I saw out of Harvin at WR last season. He's become someone a QB can rely upon in tough situations and should continue to be that kind of a player. However, what can't go unsaid is that the QB situation in Minnesota currently is TBD. It's hard to be overly optimistic about anyone in the Minnesota passing game but it's hard to envision Harvin not finishing in the top 30 at WR regardless of who's QB, making him a solid WR2/3 or flex option.

70 receptions for 850 yards and 6 td's

18 rushes for 120 yards and 1 td

 
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Frankly, I'm dubious of the migraine thing. No one gets migraines that much, that last that long, and the timing of these 'attacks' raises an eyebrow. If Rice moves on and Harvin becomes the main guy like I think he will, I have a theory that suddenly the migraine thing will disappear.

My only concern is that Harvin has yet another QB/offense to learn. He's FF WR1/high-end 2 material on most other NFL teams, but for at least another year, he'll be an inconsistent high-target, low yardage WR.

 
Frankly, I'm dubious of the migraine thing. No one gets migraines that much, that last that long, and the timing of these 'attacks' raises an eyebrow. If Rice moves on and Harvin becomes the main guy like I think he will, I have a theory that suddenly the migraine thing will disappear.My only concern is that Harvin has yet another QB/offense to learn. He's FF WR1/high-end 2 material on most other NFL teams, but for at least another year, he'll be an inconsistent high-target, low yardage WR.
Not saying That your wrong, but I have known people that have chronic migraines that are so painful it makes them puke. just saying, its a real thing
 
'D.J. said:
'FavreAndAwayAnIdiot said:
Frankly, I'm dubious of the migraine thing. No one gets migraines that much, that last that long, and the timing of these 'attacks' raises an eyebrow. If Rice moves on and Harvin becomes the main guy like I think he will, I have a theory that suddenly the migraine thing will disappear.

My only concern is that Harvin has yet another QB/offense to learn. He's FF WR1/high-end 2 material on most other NFL teams, but for at least another year, he'll be an inconsistent high-target, low yardage WR.
Not saying That your wrong, but I have known people that have chronic migraines that are so painful it makes them puke. just saying, its a real thing
Yes, migraines are real, and can be very dibilitating--not what I'm saying. Harvin's migraines last for days, and he gets them quite frequently now that he's in the NFL. If they were this bad in college, where he'd miss 1-2 games a season, he never would have been drafted before the 6th round. I think a few years down the road we will learn that there was more going on than just migraines.

 
Percy Harvin is an excellent athlete that is still learning ways to exploit his athleticism in the NFL. At this point in this unusual off-season though, he is a tough guy to project. To me, the pairing of Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin is an awesome duo. Each of them have good speed, good strength and athletic ability. Adding to the mix this year willbe the exciting prospects of teh rookie TE Kyle Rudolph. However, there is also the QB situation for the Vikings and the fact that Rice could be a free agent.

Just a challenging situation to analyze. I am not a huge fan of Christian Ponder and really do not expect him to be much improvement from last season. However, the Vikings top notch talent at WR, TE, and RB lend itself to solid production if they get better service from Ponder or land a free agent QB, if an when that ever happens this off season.

I will project that Rice stays and the Vikings add a solid QB, both of which are not guarantees by any means. Like always I will poroject Harvin for 16 games, but urge caution here as he has missed three games in his two previous seasons, I believe all due to the migraine issue.

Percy Harvin 16 gms 128 targets 79 catches 61.7% 995 yds 12.6 ypc & 6 TDs with 100 yds rushing and 1 TD

 
Who's the QB in MIN?

Will Sidney Rice stay in MIN?

Two questions that need answers before we can project Harvin with certainty. Have to think MIN will bring in a vet to give Ponder some time to learn......

70 rec, 900 yds, 6 TD

150 yds rushing, 1 TD

 
Even if Ponder is in there, I think Harvin benefits. He runs the type of routes that a younger QB can read and look to much easier than some others. Quick slants, drags, etc...the safety valve type routes are usually run by Harvin with his speed, quickness, and toughness. He can be the security blanket for Ponder.

 
This excerpted from a Viking's blog:

Aside from his work with young QBs, something the Vikings will surely do in the near future, Frazier said another appealing aspect of Musgrave is his ability to think globally in terms of offensive scheme, rather than be married to one way of doing things. Musgrave has extensive experience with the West Coast offense, but Frazier said it was clear to him in speaking with Musgrave that the new offensive coordinator will look to a variety of schematic strategies to best utilize the offensive talent on the roster.

Even two years ago when Favre was successfully throwing the ball to Rice, Harvin, Shiancoe, etc many Vikings fans were pounding their heads against the wall wondering what the heck Childress was doing with the offense. Favre wasn't exactly a compliant QB and it often appeared that he and Childress were on different pages of the playbook during the games. Harvin is an explosive player and needs to be moved around and utilized more effectively. His migraines have supposedly been helped by the Sleep Apnea treatments he is receiving. Gerhart is a nice fill in to give ADP a blow but he doesn't offer the counterpoint that Harvin could. Is this the year that Harvin emerges as an occasional RB threat? I think many Vikings fans hope to see this versatile player show his skills. This isn't to say he should be "stealing" touches from ADP but utilized as the multi-faceted threat that he has the potential to be.

75 receptions 900 yds 6 TD's

35 rushes 245 yds 3 TDS

Bank on it!!!!

 
Well, one thing we know that people haven't mentioned yet is ADP. He helps Harvin as he's a special RB and will get plenty of attention. The Vikes OL slipped last year and that is a concern for a new QB. Obviously, there are legit ? marks as people have pointed out with Rice and Ponder/whoever plays QB.

Another side point, Harvin didn't return kicks last year after Childress left, and I doubt he will this year. I loved him in kick return yardage league.

The guy is explosive, and his quickness can allow him to make something out of nothing. He is good with slants, quick flat passes, etc that an offense with a young QB might try to leverage a lot (flipside- defense keys on it).

Anyway, I'll go 74 catches, 1050 yards 7 TDs with 150 yards rushing 1 TD.

 
what's everyone thinking with McNabb in at QB? Assuming he has the migranes under control, I could see him with upwards of 70 catches, 1100 yards receiving and 8-9 TDs.

 
He has really taken on the role of a leader in the locker room among WR's, too, as scary as that might have seemed a few years ago:

“I’ll tell you there is no way that I would have predicted over this lockout that Percy would have come back taking a leadership role that he has,” Frazier said. “From the moment the lockout was lifted and we could contact players, it’s been refreshing just talking to him and just seeing his attitude about this season.

“The fact that he’s leading, he’s talking to other players, explaining to them what needs to be done, how things are done.”

“I mean wow,” Frazier said. “This is what you want from one of your star players. He’s having a very good camp and it’s exciting for us to see as a staff him stepping into that leadership role. We need that from him.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/percy-harvin-emerging-as-leader-for-young-minnesota-vikings-wide-receivers/2011/08/06/gIQAqkrsyI_story.html

 
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Any updated thoughts on Harvin this season? He is the clear #1 WR for the Vikings this year.

I project 90 rec, 1200 yards, and 8 TD.

 
I like Harvin. He has Steve Smith talent. The Vikings improved their QB play quite a bit over last season. And he is clearly the best receiving target on a team that will have to pass alot because I think their D will be porous.

80 receptions, 1200 yards, and 8 TDs seems very reasonable to me.

There haven't been any reports of migraines all preseason and I think the team doctors have it under control.

 
no migraines, no migraines, no migraines, STOP!

Santana Moss set a career high in targets last season with McNabb and a similarly ugly supporting cast of WRs. I think they are similar receivers at this point in time. Moss' catch% went up to 64% from 58 and 57% the previous two years.

I think the YPC goes up with (hopefully) more competent QB play. I'll regress his TD% to his career rate. I'll increase his targets per game by 5%. If he plays 16 games:

131 targets, 85 catches, 1080 yards, 7 TD.

20 rushes, 130 yards, 2 TD combined between rushing/returning.

 
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I am thinking he will have over 100 catches, 1600 yards and 12 tds.

He is an amazingly talented player and Minn's offense is not bad, considerng that they sport the most talented rb in all of football, have an o.k offensive line, and have a decent qb. I think the Vikings D will be pourus and the offense will have to react in kind. If I recall, McNabb has a tendency to lock onto wrs. That is also a plus.

Also, I own him, so much like one of my own children, it is difficult for me to see his flaws.

 
Is anyone worried about McNabb seriously depressing Harvin's value? He had 2 receptions and 3 rushes yesterday, and aside from AP, the Vikings offense looked lost. What is the outlook on this guy? Should we be looking to sell early or hang on?

 
Yeah- I'm concerned McNabb has absolutely fallen off a cliff, no drive left. I have Harvin as a wr3 in my league and so will hold and see. I didn't see the game but 39 yards? really? what happened?

 
The one saving grace was the kickoff TD, but if he doesn't get that, he's a bust for week 1. He is amazing in the open field, probably unparalled, but my question is whether McNabb can get him the ball in the open field.

When McNabb feels a hint of pressure these days, he throws the ball into the dirt without fail. Some of Harvin's biggest plays are when the o-line breaks down, the QB scrambles, and hits Percy in space once he breaks free from coverage. McNabb looks like he is physically incapable of making these plays anymore.

If Ponder comes in at some point (question is, when will that point come), his outlook may change, but I am not feeling too good as a Harvin owner these days.

 
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The one saving grace was the kickoff TD, but if he doesn't get that, he's a bust for week 1. He is amazing in the open field, probably unparalled, but my question is whether McNabb can get him the ball in the open field. When McNabb feels a hint of pressure these days, he throws the ball into the dirt without fail. Some of Harvin's biggest plays are when the o-line breaks down, the QB scrambles, and hits Percy in space once he breaks free from coverage. McNabb looks like he is physically incapable of making these plays anymore.If Ponder comes in at some point (question is, when will that point come), his outlook may change, but I am not feeling too good as a Harvin owner these days.
I actually think McNabb looked pretty nimble back there. There was one scramble for a first down that maybe only a handful of other qbs make. His pass pro needs to be better as does the play calling. Harvin, IMO, is a buy low.
 
Are Harvin owners starting him with(out) confidence this week? Or should he be riding the bench if you have other viable options?

 
Are Harvin owners starting him with(out) confidence this week? Or should he be riding the bench if you have other viable options?
I think you answered your own question -- Percy is the kind of player who I believe will get his as McNabb and the Oline settle in. I do think he's in for a drop in his overall seasonal expected performance, as McNabb has me more worried now. Whereas I saw Harvin as a WR2 with potential WR1 upside, that upside for me is gone, and I fear he could have games where he'll be no better than a flex starter.So if you have more viable options this week, I would certainly use them. In the league where I own Harvin, I'm not sure I have that luxury -- I have Lloyd, Ford, Green and Gaffney, and Harvin's upside may be better than gambling on the rest.
 
I am trying trade him as we speak. I am really worried about him. I'll be starting Burleson over him this week. With Marshall and Nicks ahead of him. If Nicks is out, I might have to roll the dice with him as my WR3, but I'll consider AJ Green as well. If Nicks plays, then I'll prolly use a RB in a flex position instead of Harvin. I think I rather start any of these instead of Harvin (Mathews, Starks, Ingram, McGahee, Woodhead)

 
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Are Harvin owners starting him with(out) confidence this week? Or should he be riding the bench if you have other viable options?
I think you answered your own question -- Percy is the kind of player who I believe will get his as McNabb and the Oline settle in. I do think he's in for a drop in his overall seasonal expected performance, as McNabb has me more worried now. Whereas I saw Harvin as a WR2 with potential WR1 upside, that upside for me is gone, and I fear he could have games where he'll be no better than a flex starter.So if you have more viable options this week, I would certainly use them. In the league where I own Harvin, I'm not sure I have that luxury -- I have Lloyd, Ford, Green and Gaffney, and Harvin's upside may be better than gambling on the rest.
You have to start him over Ford, Green, and Gaffney if only because we know the Vikings will force feed him the ball, and with Harvin, it only takes one play to make a big week for him. The opportunity is so much greater than the other three guys you listed. In regards to whether you should be trading him now, I feel like his value is way too low. In my league last year, he was a top 10 WR (we count return yards), and right now you would be lucky to get an RB2/Flex player for him. I say he's a hold until we see him this weekend.
 
Found this on Rotoworld...

According to Tom Pelissero of 1500 ESPN, Percy Harvin played only 30-of-68 offensive snaps in Week 2.

Pelissero "calculated it twice because I didn't believe it." It's a 44.1 snap percentage, which is in fact down from Harvin's 62.8% (27-of-43) in Week 1. As Pelissero points out, Harvin was not involved in the red-zone package, which obviously hurts his touchdown potential. His lengthy absences are also killing Minnesota's offense with Michael Jenkins and Bernard Berrian incapable of getting open outside. Harvin did touch the ball nine times in Week 2, but he's a lot riskier option at this point than meets the eye. The Vikings have some serious self evaluation to do. Harvin is their only offensive threat aside from Adrian Peterson, and a good coaching staff would be sure to use him as an every-down player.
Any Minnesota homers have any insights on this? It's hard to believe as an outsider they would not be using Harvin more. Less than half of the offensive snaps? No red zone? It's somewhat alarming for those of us who drafted him to be a WR3.
 
From Rotoworld:

Coach Leslie Frazier insisted Wednesday that the Vikings are taking "the right approach" by limiting Percy Harvin's offensive involvement.

"It's just a matter of our using his strengths to our greatest advantage, to our team's advantage and picking out spots when we do," said Frazier. Harvin has only played 51.4 percent of the snaps through two games, and doesn't play in the red zone. Beat writer Tom Pelissero suspects that the Vikings are "preserving" Harvin. "That's not my call," said Harvin Wednesday. "That's coach's decision. All I can do is come out here and get better."

What exactly does the part in bold (my emphasis) mean? Are they writing the season off already and preserving him for the future? Because they sure don't look like they're in a position to be saving him for a playoff run. Are they hoping that when they start Ponder (which shouldn't be far off) he has a full-strength Harvin to throw to, insuring a higher probability of the young QB's success? Thoughts?

 
From Rotoworld:

Coach Leslie Frazier insisted Wednesday that the Vikings are taking "the right approach" by limiting Percy Harvin's offensive involvement.

"It's just a matter of our using his strengths to our greatest advantage, to our team's advantage and picking out spots when we do," said Frazier. Harvin has only played 51.4 percent of the snaps through two games, and doesn't play in the red zone. Beat writer Tom Pelissero suspects that the Vikings are "preserving" Harvin. "That's not my call," said Harvin Wednesday. "That's coach's decision. All I can do is come out here and get better."

What exactly does the part in bold (my emphasis) mean? Are they writing the season off already and preserving him for the future? Because they sure don't look like they're in a position to be saving him for a playoff run. Are they hoping that when they start Ponder (which shouldn't be far off) he has a full-strength Harvin to throw to, insuring a higher probability of the young QB's success? Thoughts?
Wow, thanks for posting. This does not bode well for Harvin living up to fantasy production expectations. One week can be sloughed off as a potential aberration, two weeks is a trend; but this is even more troublesome given that they are purposely reducing his load and for all the wrong reasons, it seems.Having a threat like Harvin on the field at the very least makes defenses have to account for him, and helps the run game that much more. I'd also love more insight as to why Frazier would think of throttling back Harvin's usage, and why that's good for the offense.

 
From Rotoworld:

Coach Leslie Frazier insisted Wednesday that the Vikings are taking "the right approach" by limiting Percy Harvin's offensive involvement.

"It's just a matter of our using his strengths to our greatest advantage, to our team's advantage and picking out spots when we do," said Frazier. Harvin has only played 51.4 percent of the snaps through two games, and doesn't play in the red zone. Beat writer Tom Pelissero suspects that the Vikings are "preserving" Harvin. "That's not my call," said Harvin Wednesday. "That's coach's decision. All I can do is come out here and get better."

What exactly does the part in bold (my emphasis) mean? Are they writing the season off already and preserving him for the future? Because they sure don't look like they're in a position to be saving him for a playoff run. Are they hoping that when they start Ponder (which shouldn't be far off) he has a full-strength Harvin to throw to, insuring a higher probability of the young QB's success? Thoughts?
Wow, thanks for posting. This does not bode well for Harvin living up to fantasy production expectations. One week can be sloughed off as a potential aberration, two weeks is a trend; but this is even more troublesome given that they are purposely reducing his load and for all the wrong reasons, it seems.Having a threat like Harvin on the field at the very least makes defenses have to account for him, and helps the run game that much more. I'd also love more insight as to why Frazier would think of throttling back Harvin's usage, and why that's good for the offense.
Tice, Chilly, and Frazier -- The Three Stooges. I think we'll be hearing from Frazier soon.. in a broadcast booth. This team is cursed with stupidity.

 
Theory: The Vikings realize they don't have a rats chance in hell of doing anything right now in a division with the Packers, Lions and Bears, so they are intentionally keeping one of their best players off the field in hopes they'll lose 2-3 more games so they can stockpile higher draft picks.

Between this and Donovan McNabb, I have no other explanation.

 
He still managed to put up a decent game last week with the limited time on the field, but I don't think I'm willing to start him right now...

 
Are Harvin owners starting him with(out) confidence this week? Or should he be riding the bench if you have other viable options?
FBG gave him an upgrade this week but I honestly don't see why. He's benched until I see him score a TD on the offense. I don't understand how he can't be in for the red zone, that's insaneThey're trying to preserve him, so that's why they're playing him on special teams???I hope Detroit kills that team this weekend.
 
Yeah when you have "talent" like Michael Jenkins and Bernard Berrian at WR it can be hard to find reps for other players :rolleyes:

 
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Maybe they are conserving him for special teams, they can win games with big plays on special teams, maybe they are praying for Harvin to take make special plays and get them good ball spots and an occasional TD. More effective per touches.

 
'FavreAndAwayAnIdiot said:
Theory: The Vikings realize they don't have a rats chance in hell of doing anything right now in a division with the Packers, Lions and Bears, so they are intentionally keeping one of their best players off the field in hopes they'll lose 2-3 more games so they can stockpile higher draft picks.
:lmao:
 
Depending on your options I think the guy has to ride the bench until something changes. The good news is that it doesn't seem to have anything to do with Harvin himself and with every loss it will become harder and harder for the coaching staff to defend they way they are (not) using him.

 

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