Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns (1 Viewer)

[cvnpoka]

If the injury was so severe, why was he still playing in the 3rd and 4th quarter and in the next meaningless game? That makes zero sense. If he could play through it and play the next week when the Browns could have easily rested him with no repercussions, then I wouldn't call it severe. Also, please re-read what I wrote, I said hard hits happen a lot to RBs.

bc hes tough and likes to play football? i dunno why he was out there. it was clearly, to me, the person who actually watched the game, severe enough that it limited his ability. mike bell had 12 carries and 6 catches in those 2 games. in his other 9 games on the browns he had 19 carries and 0 catches. wonder why his role increased?

Also, please re-read what I wrote, I said hard hits happen a lot to RBs.

most rbs dont injure ribs and need to wear a flack jacket. when they do, they almost always sit out. you didnt see the hit. you didnt see hillis play before or afterward. it even seems like you are intimating that most rbs would not have been hurt on that play. or that hillis is somehow unable to take a hit.

Do you think he won't be "dinged" up at that point?

i think every rb will be "dinged" at some point. and hillis slightly more likely than others.

 

[rzrback77]

Peyton Hillis is strong, but he is also athletic. He has always been an excellent receiving option out of the backfield. He was ranked by Rivals.com as the #1 FB as a high school senior and was recruited nationally by Alabama, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Tennessee, and Michigan. Even though he shared the backfield at Arkansas for three of his four years with McFadden and Felix Jones, he still managed to score 23 total career touchdowns and 11 of them were on receptions.

He caught 118 passes at Arkansas despite mostly being the third option out of the backfield. His work ethic is phenomenal. I beleive that the Cleveland change to a West Coast Offense will take advantage of both his and McCoy's strengths and he will excel. I do hope that he saves his run them over mentality for the goal line and decides to run out of bounds a little more often to limit the number of hits he absorbs because that will defintely take a toll going forward.

He is still rather young and I think he will not slide back from a year ago and Cleveland expands their passing efficiency and provides him with a few more openings to run. I think that his receptions will drop some, but he will remain a viable outlet for Colt McCoy.

There will be few believers and he will provide value being drafted later than the numbers that he had in 2010 should indicate because of the prejudice for "lack of athleticism full-backs".

Peyton Hillis 16 gms 280 carries 1260 yds 4.5 ypc 70 targets 50 catches 400 yds 8.0 ypc and 12 total TDs

 

[stbugs]

If the injury was so severe, why was he still playing in the 3rd and 4th quarter and in the next meaningless game? That makes zero sense. If he could play through it and play the next week when the Browns could have easily rested him with no repercussions, then I wouldn't call it severe. Also, please re-read what I wrote, I said hard hits happen a lot to RBs.

bc hes tough and likes to play football? i dunno why he was out there. it was clearly, to me, the person who actually watched the game, severe enough that it limited his ability. mike bell had 12 carries and 6 catches in those 2 games. in his other 9 games on the browns he had 19 carries and 0 catches. wonder why his role increased?

Also, please re-read what I wrote, I said hard hits happen a lot to RBs.

most rbs dont injure ribs and need to wear a flack jacket. when they do, they almost always sit out. you didnt see the hit. you didnt see hillis play before or afterward. it even seems like you are intimating that most rbs would not have been hurt on that play. or that hillis is somehow unable to take a hit.

Do you think he won't be "dinged" up at that point?

i think every rb will be "dinged" at some point. and hillis slightly more likely than others.

Relax man, I will take your word on the hit. Again, I just don't think he is worth the risk of a 1st round pick, but I also wasn't surprised that he slowed down at the end of the year and I wouldn't be surprised to see this again. He got pretty much all the RB touches and it showed at the end of the year. Now I remember, there was a thread before the second Baltimore game about Hillis for 2011 based on his results so far last year. I posted that I was worried that Baltimore got surprised by him in the first game and that they would be gunning for him and it appears they were.Oh, I certainly do not want to get intimate with Hillis and I also didn't insinuate that Hillis wasn't tough and couldn't take a hit.

 

[Truly Yours]

I think Hillis overall numbers will go down this year.

M.Hardesty will certainly take some carries away (assuming he can stay on the field this year), and the passing game should be improved with McCoy in his second year. Defense coordinators also have a complete offseason to study Hillis game and will likely prepare for him more than they did last year.

Hillis will be drafted way too early in many leagues this summer as you will have at least one owner in every league being in love with him and expecting the same if not more in 2011.

230 carries for 1012 yards 9TD, 50 rec for 385 yards 1TD

Truly Yours

 

[cvnpoka]

Oh, I certainly do not want to get intimate with Hillis and I also didn't insinuate that Hillis wasn't tough and couldn't take a hit.

in·ti·mate2    [in-tuh-meyt]

–verb (used with object), -mat·ed, -mat·ing.

1.

to indicate or make known indirectly; hint; imply; suggest.

2.

Archaic . to make known; announce.

 

[stbugs]

Oh, I certainly do not want to get intimate with Hillis and I also didn't insinuate that Hillis wasn't tough and couldn't take a hit.

in·ti·mate2    [in-tuh-meyt]

–verb (used with object), -mat·ed, -mat·ing.

1.

to indicate or make known indirectly; hint; imply; suggest.

2.

Archaic . to make known; announce.

They put too many ads on that page.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Peyton Hillis gives you everything he has in his tank. One of the problems I saw was a guy who's tank was nearly empty with a few games left on his schedule. He plays in a division where he gets banged up a ton and he will again this year. The guy can catch the ball and run with power but as much as I'd like to see him put up those kind of numbers again in 2011-12, I don't see it. He kind of caught teams by surprise in how complete of a back he really is, that they'll focus more on him this year, forcing Cleveland to beat them with other options.

950 yards rushing with 8 tds

51 receptions for 450 yards and 2 td's

 

[Young 8]

Le'Ron McClain/Reuben Droughns part II

stay away

 

[Jason Wood]

Le'Ron McClain/Reuben Droughns part IIstay away

Neither player you mentioned ever had a season like Hillis. Droughns best was RB14 while McClain's one good year netted him RB20. Hillis was the #2 fantasy back last year. Apples, meet oranges.

 

[FTRWRTR]

I'm surprised to see so many ppl think hillis will duplicate his numbers from last year. Last season everything fell right for him, he stayed healthy and the browns had no wrs so he was by far their main offensive weapon. In addition Hardesty was out for the year. No way I think the "perfect storm" happens for him again. I honestly think 2010 was his career year and anyone who drafts him in the first or early second will be very disappointed by what they get from him.

185 carries for 865 yards and 6 TDs and 40 catches for 325 yards and 2 TDs.

Those numbers are a bit misleading because I also think he has a significant floor, mainly due to his problems staying healthy, and I personally would let others draft him and take the gamble.

 

[djmich]

I'm surprised to see so many ppl think hillis will duplicate his numbers from last year. Last season everything fell right for him, he stayed healthy and the browns had no wrs so he was by far their main offensive weapon. In addition Hardesty was out for the year. No way I think the "perfect storm" happens for him again. I honestly think 2010 was his career year and anyone who drafts him in the first or early second will be very disappointed by what they get from him.185 carries for 865 yards and 6 TDs and 40 catches for 325 yards and 2 TDs.Those numbers are a bit misleading because I also think he has a significant floor, mainly due to his problems staying healthy, and I personally would let others draft him and take the gamble.

Brown had no WR's...is that really going to change so quickly?He was their main offensive weapon...see aboveHe stayed healthy...and this is bad why?Hardesty...should help him take a few more breathers and make sure he can stay healthy and end the season strongerWhen I watched him play he was a beast, I'm not sure I can see what has changed in the past six months.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

Use FBG's RB historical stats and look at the past top 3 RB's. Some very good names there and Hillis is just hitting his prime.

He could be Jamal Anderson II but Anderson had an astronomical 410 carries that year and he had a couple of 1000 yard seasons before that.

Barry Foster had 390 carries/1690 yds and faded after that but was still the #17 RB the next year.

I'm predicting Hillis is a top 20 RB at the very least in 2011.

 

[stbugs]

Use FBG's RB historical stats and look at the past top 3 RB's. Some very good names there and Hillis is just hitting his prime.He could be Jamal Anderson II but Anderson had an astronomical 410 carries that year and he had a couple of 1000 yard seasons before that.Barry Foster had 390 carries/1690 yds and faded after that but was still the #17 RB the next year.I'm predicting Hillis is a top 20 RB at the very least in 2011.

I'm not as high on Hillis as some (i.e. RB4 someone mentioned a while ago), but saying a clear #1 RB who is obviously a key cog in the offense is top 20 isn't a stretch at all. Pretty sure even the low ballers in this thread have him still in the top 20. Outside of injury, I would almost think it would be impossible for Hillis to not be top 20 (even moreso in PPR). I think the question with Hillis is he going to stay top 5 or fall to say 12-20, but not out of the top 20.

 

[T with T]

I put very little credence in this "he wore down" argument as a reason to expect a poor followup season. In the article in question, it mentions that Hillis "only averaged 3.8 yards per carry over the second half of the season." So what?In 2007, Adrian Peterson went from more than 5 yards per carry in the first half to a dismal 3.114 yards per rush over the final 8 games. He followed that up with 1,760 yards (4.8 YPC) and 10 TDs in 2008.In 2002, Deuce McAllister only averaged 3.584 yards per carry in the second half...clearly he "hit the wall and was overworked", right? He followed that up in with a 1,641-yard (4.7 YPR) 8 TD season in 2003.In 2004, Clinton Portis struggled to only 3.633 yards per carry in the second half. In 2005, rather than regressing, he put up 1,516 yards rushing (4.3 per carry) and 11 TDs.In 2007, Portis (again) averaged just 3.644 yards in the second half, and delivered 1,487 yards (4.3 YPR) and 9 TDs in 2008.In 2002, Edgerrin James saw his second half fall to 3.669 per carry. He followed that up in 2003 with 1,259 yards (4.1) and 11 TDs.In 2009, Rashard Mendenhall "was gassed" and only churned out 3.768 yards per rush in the second half. He put up 1,273 (3.9) and 13 TDs this year.In 2008, Frank Gore averaged just 3.837 yards in the second half, he followed that up with 1,120 yards (4.9 YPR!) and 10 TDs in 2009.In 2009, MJD "lost his explosiveness" and only managed 3.916 yards per rush in the second half. He delivered 1,324 (4.4 YPR) and 5 TDs last year (in less than 16 games).In 2005, Thomas Jones couldn't muster 4 yards per rush in the 2nd half (3.959) but delivered 1,210 yards (4.1 YPR) and 6 TDs in 2006.In 2009, Adrian Peterson averaged just 3.993 yards in the second half, but delivered 1,298 and 12 this past year.

JASON??? why do you even argue with guys like Potato and Moderator... Their arguments are petty and they are obviously PH haters... everyone knows that Ph is a beast and was a top 2 back last year... all these people that say he is gonna only get 800 yards and 4 tds don't know what they are talking about... Just sit back and let the hate rs rattle off and quietly draft Hillis in the late 2nd early 3rd knowing you have a guy that will get about 250 carries and 60 catches with about 10-12 tds... top 10 back imo... don't listen to these guys who bring up petty, pointless arguments... bottomline is PH was one of the most consistent backs in the league and the last three weeks he had 12 or less carries each game, so lack of carries coudl be part of less yards or wearing down... PETTY at best.. Hardesty like you stated is an injury waiting to happen and hasn't shown anything in the NFL.

 

[rascal]

I like Hillis, but the playoff schedule is so brutal it forces me to stay away.

 

[TS Garp]

Although I'm not quite as down on Hillis as Coach Potato is, I've been around this board for a long time and CP is far and away one of the best and most informed posters on here, in my opinion. His point about the way many people do projections is well-taken. There are reasons that guys like Hillis, Stevie Johnson, McFadden, Brandon Lloyd, Foster et al emerge every season. They have to do with coaching changes, injuries, and so on, but looking at stats from the previous year and adjusting them up or down by 10% - 20% will get you nowhere.

A couple of things jump out at me when I look at Hillis and the Browns:

* How can people say that Hillis didn't wear down at the end of the season? His stats over the final 5 games:

71 carries, 272 yards, 0 td's, 3.8 ypc

15 receptions, 63 yards, 0 td's.

So I think it's logical that Shurmur/Heckert/Holmgren believe that they need to limit Hillis' touches a bit to keep him fresh and get the best out of him.

* Hillis also fumbled 8 times and lost 5 of them -- something to keep in mind.

* Shurmur likes to throw the ball. The Browns threw 478 times last season -- 28th in the NFL. The Rams threw 590 times with Shurmur as OC last season. So I think it's safe to say that the Browns will throw the ball a lot more this season. Hillis could stand to benefit from that but Hardesty is also an above-average receiver and they brought in Brandon Jackson almost specifically for this purpose.

Hardesty is still a question mark and Jackson just went down with turf toe -- always a tricky injury, but Hillis himself is battling a hamstring issue and guys who run as hard as he does and never shy away from contact are always injury concerns. I can't see him cratering, but I do think this will be a very different team than last year.

My projection:

230 carries, 989 yards, 4.3 YPC, 8 td's, 45 receptions, 330 yards, 1 td

 

[LHUCKS]

Hillis lacks elite athleticism and talent so he'll likely be one of the most overvalued RBs in 2011 as owners will be expecting a repeat performance of 2010. His 4.4 YPC was mostly the result of pure will and determination but players like that don't last in the NFL. Do yourself a favor and let your draftmates reach on Hillis in the second round.850 yards rushing300 yards receiving8 TDsHillis was a nice story, but NFL defenses are too athletic for a RB of his pedestrian abilities. Further his hard running style makes it likely he'll miss several games.

Since posting the above I've bumped up Hillis for the following reasons:1) Lack of an emerging #2 RB to help share the load2) Browns offense looks crispIn many drafts he might even be considered a value play.I usually don't do total 180s like this, but this is a unique situation.

 

[Abraham]

Hardesty?

 

[YoUnG GuNz]

I would love to have Hillis at his current ADP, absolute steal in my opinion. I thought he would be a surefire first rounder after last years performance. Not sure what I'm missing here... would you honestly rather have MJD (all types of banged up w/ emerging Jennings), Mendy (didn't even compare to hillis last year in PPR), and even Gore (who is a top 5 back when healthy but other than that he's a walking china doll)? One could make a case that Hillis should be the first back taken after the consensus "top 6" RBs are off the board.

 

[Otis]

Hardesty?

 

[Tanner9919]

Browns' offense looks surprisingly good in pre-season.I think htat carries over to the 2011 reg season.

Hillis should be considered a LOCK as a top 10 RB in 2011.

his schedule looks like this:

1. Bengals

2. Colts

3. Dolphins

4. Titans

6( after bye) Raiders

7. Seattle

8. SF

9. Texans

10. Rams

11.Jags

12. Bengals

13. Ravens

14. Steelers

15. Cards

Perhaps Miami and Oakland will give the Browns fits, but other than those two games, is there really a strong run-stuffing unit that Cleveland will face? I don't see any..the 6 game stretch from week 7-12 is flat-out juicy..

and week 15, usually the Fantasy Championship Game in most leagues, is against the Cardinals.Could you ask for a better matchup for Hillis?

Not hard to imagine him EASILY getting seven 100 yard games - Cards, Texans, Rams, Jags, Sea, Colts, 1 of the Bengals games. Now add the Niners, Titans, Dolphins...

I think Hillis is a gold mine. Should be a first rounder in all drafts but will most likely end up as a 3rd round pick...

 

[gump]

his schedule looks like this:

13. Ravens

14. @ Steelers

15. Cards

16. @ Ravens

and week 15, usually the Fantasy Championship Game in most leagues, is against the Cardinals.Could you ask for a better matchup for Hillis?

Week 16 is the most common Champ Game....where Hillis is at Baltimore. Three of the last four weeks look like terrible matchups.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I like Hillis, but the playoff schedule is so brutal it forces me to stay away.

I don't draft solely on playoff schedule. Besides, the first 12 weeks of his schedule look savory. 280 carries, 1260 rushing. 55 receptions, 440 receiving. 12 total TD's. Right around top 5.

 

[dagwood]

his schedule looks like this:

13. Ravens

14. @ Steelers

15. Cards

16. @ Ravens

and week 15, usually the Fantasy Championship Game in most leagues, is against the Cardinals.Could you ask for a better matchup for Hillis?

Week 16 is the most common Champ Game....where Hillis is at Baltimore. Three of the last four weeks look like terrible matchups.

Last Year at Baltimore144 yard rushing

7 receptions

36 yards receiving

1 TD

Past performance is not indicative of.....blah blah blah

but I would not run away from him solely for his week 16 matchup

 

[gump]

Last Year at Baltimore144 yard rushing7 receptions36 yards receiving 1 TDPast performance is not indicative of.....blah blah blahbut I would not run away from him solely for his week 16 matchup

That's true....he did rip them up in Week 3.But he finished weeks 16 and 17 with 56 yards COMBINED and no TDs against Pitt and Balt.I think the (on paper) tough playoff schedule + the concern about his late season fade in '10 is a little scary.

 

[dagwood]

Last Year at Baltimore144 yard rushing7 receptions36 yards receiving 1 TDPast performance is not indicative of.....blah blah blahbut I would not run away from him solely for his week 16 matchup

That's true....he did rip them up in Week 3.But he finished weeks 16 and 17 with 56 yards COMBINED and no TDs against Pitt and Balt.I think the (on paper) tough playoff schedule + the concern about his late season fade in '10 is a little scary.

Week 17 is just a fifth preseason game. The problem Week 16 was more Colt McCoys three picks than his inability to run.Colt McCoy looks pretty good this year; and the Cleveland line is looking really good.

 

[griff321]

Last Year at Baltimore144 yard rushing7 receptions36 yards receiving 1 TDPast performance is not indicative of.....blah blah blahbut I would not run away from him solely for his week 16 matchup

That's true....he did rip them up in Week 3.But he finished weeks 16 and 17 with 56 yards COMBINED and no TDs against Pitt and Balt.I think the (on paper) tough playoff schedule + the concern about his late season fade in '10 is a little scary.

This is a very bad argument.Like Wood said, "Some are pointing out Hillis' 2nd half yards-per-rush decline as cause for concern. Yet some of the league's premier runners have endured similar 2nd half swoons, only to bounce back with elite seasons the following year."Guys hit the wall in their first year with a major jump in carries, and it means nothing.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I'm on the Hillis train this year - grabbed him at 3.12 in a 12 team, PPR league over the weekend.

CHOO-CHOO!

 

[PIRATEandJESTER]

Made Hillis my keeper this season. I got him round 11 last year, prety good deal to giove up my 11th round pick this year !

 

[cvnpoka]

Last Year at Baltimore144 yard rushing7 receptions36 yards receiving 1 TDPast performance is not indicative of.....blah blah blahbut I would not run away from him solely for his week 16 matchup

That's true....he did rip them up in Week 3.But he finished weeks 16 and 17 with 56 yards COMBINED and no TDs against Pitt and Balt.I think the (on paper) tough playoff schedule + the concern about his late season fade in '10 is a little scary.

Week 17 is just a fifth preseason game. The problem Week 16 was more Colt McCoys three picks than his inability to run.Colt McCoy looks pretty good this year; and the Cleveland line is looking really good.

another problem with week 16 is that on the initial drive he took a wicked shot from ray lewis in the back and was never the same the next 1.5 games. call it injury prone or wearing down or bad luck but i distinctly remember it. i had the misfortune of being in a location that forced me to watch that useless game.

 

[stbugs]

I wasn't real high on Hillis earlier in the thread. Not down on him per se, but more of a come back to the mean from an exceptional season. The one thing I noted was that he got such a high percent of touches for the RBs (Hardesty out and Mike Bell barely got the ball) and was their leading receiver. I just couldn't imagine him getting more touches if they backup RBs were competent and healthy and McCoy improved and threw the ball to WRs.

That said, my earliest pick is 7th out of 12, so I have a feeling I am going to be deciding on Hillis in every draft, especially in the 2 with keepers. The playoff schedule does concern me, but I think he could be a good start/good trade bait or just a get me to the playoffs guy and find someone else to emerge and play in the playoffs guy. I may be doing a 90 degree change on him because I think he will be solid and as mentioned above it seems he is becoming more of a value.

 

[AmosMoses]

Steinbach could be out a while?

My link

BEREA, Ohio -- Browns starting left guard Eric Steinbach is out indefinitely with a disc problem in his back and running back Brandon Jackson will be out awhile with a toe problem...

He said he's not sure when Steinbach will return, and that also seems like it could linger on. Shurmur said rookie guard Jason Pinkston has made tremendous progress and will most likely be plugged in there for the time being.

If Steinbach misses significant time, how does this affect Hillis?

 

[baconisgood]

Steinbach could be out a while?

My link

BEREA, Ohio -- Browns starting left guard Eric Steinbach is out indefinitely with a disc problem in his back and running back Brandon Jackson will be out awhile with a toe problem...

He said he's not sure when Steinbach will return, and that also seems like it could linger on. Shurmur said rookie guard Jason Pinkston has made tremendous progress and will most likely be plugged in there for the time being.

If Steinbach misses significant time, how does this affect Hillis?

A tin bump up for Hillis. Steinbach has been the weak link on the Oline since he signed.

 

[newteech]

If Steinbach misses significant time, how does this affect Hillis?

It doesn't. Hillis will be fine as long as Joe Thomas is around.

 

[ourmanflint]

Steinbach could be out a while?

My link

BEREA, Ohio -- Browns starting left guard Eric Steinbach is out indefinitely with a disc problem in his back and running back Brandon Jackson will be out awhile with a toe problem...

He said he's not sure when Steinbach will return, and that also seems like it could linger on. Shurmur said rookie guard Jason Pinkston has made tremendous progress and will most likely be plugged in there for the time being.

If Steinbach misses significant time, how does this affect Hillis?

A tin bump up for Hillis. Steinbach has been the weak link on the Oline since he signed.

Agreed. They were hoping someone would emerge and push him for the job. They traded 2 6th rounders to move up and take Pinkston in the 5th round this year. He played left tackle at Pitt.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

I drafted Hillis in third round in two of my teams. I personally think that's a good value. And for those that are saying Cleveland has a better passing game, well that helps Hillis imo. Now if Hardsty pulls his hamstrings for most of the season, I'll be happy with Hillis.

 

[bb76]

I just got him in the 3rd round and think he represents good value there. I don't think there is any way i would take him rd1, but he has the potential to be a top 10 back on an improved offense that you can get in the 3rd round.

 

[ourmanflint]

Steinbach could be out a while?

My link

BEREA, Ohio -- Browns starting left guard Eric Steinbach is out indefinitely with a disc problem in his back and running back Brandon Jackson will be out awhile with a toe problem...

He said he's not sure when Steinbach will return, and that also seems like it could linger on. Shurmur said rookie guard Jason Pinkston has made tremendous progress and will most likely be plugged in there for the time being.

If Steinbach misses significant time, how does this affect Hillis?

About Pinkston's performance against the Eagles: ProFootballFocus

With LG Eric Steinbach sidelined due to injury, rookie Jason Pinkston got a chance in his stead. While he was impressive in the run game, he struggled mightily in pass protection. Pinkston flashed his potential on the first run of the game, sealing the DT inside on a run through the B-gap to the left and was good in the ground game the rest of the way. Unfortunately, he was beat up a number of times in pass protection. He allowed a sack early in the game and had particular trouble picking up stunts. Overall, his run blocking should be cause for encouragement for Browns fans, especially considering he was a fifth round pick.