Pick 'em Week 3 (1 Viewer)

[lefteye]

For those of us in pick 'em pools, let's collaborate to get the best we can out of our collective knowledge and have healthy discussions around the games. I put my winners in italics. You may not agree that all of these are no brainers and may disagree with my choice in the toss-ups. I think it'll be healthy to have some discussion about it.

The no brainers

New England (2-0, Road: 1-0) 1:00 pm EDT

Buffalo (2-0, Home: 1-0) CBS

Detroit (2-0, Road: 1-0) 1:00 pm EDT

Minnesota (0-2, Home: 0-1) FOX

Baltimore (1-1, Road: 0-1) 4:05 pm EDT

St. Louis (0-2, Home: 0-1) CBS

Atlanta (1-1, Road: 0-1) 4:15 pm EDT

Tampa Bay (1-1, Home: 0-1) FOX

Pittsburgh (1-1, Road: 0-1) 8:20 pm EDT

Indianapolis (0-2, Home: 0-1) NBC

Kansas City (0-2, Road: 0-1) 4:05 pm EDT

San Diego (1-1, Home: 1-0) CBS

Green Bay (2-0, Road: 1-0) 4:15 pm EDT

Chicago (1-1, Home: 1-0) FOX

The toss up's

Miami (0-2, Road: 0-0) 1:00 pm EDT

Cleveland (1-1, Home: 0-1) CBS

NY Giants (1-1, Road: 0-1) 1:00 pm EDT

Philadelphia (1-1, Home: 0-0) FOX

Houston (2-0, Road: 1-0) 1:00 pm EDT

New Orleans (1-1, Home: 1-0) CBS

Jacksonville (1-1, Road: 0-1) 1:00 pm EDT

Carolina (0-2, Home: 0-1) CBS

San Francisco (1-1, Road: 0-0) 1:00 pm EDT

Cincinnati (1-1, Home: 0-0) FOX

Denver (1-1, Road: 0-0) 1:00 pm EDT

Tennessee (1-1, Home: 1-0) CBS

NY Jets (2-0, Road: 0-0) 4:05 pm EDT

Oakland (1-1, Home: 0-0) CBS

Arizona (1-1, Road: 0-1) 4:15 pm EDT

Seattle (0-2, Home: 0-0) FOX

Monday September 26, 2011

Washington (2-0, Road: 0-0) 8:30 pm EDT

Dallas (1-1, Home: 0-0) ESPN

 

[lefteye]

I picked the giants assuming vick doesn't play and I'm not in love with the Jets against a vastly improved Oak team after having traveled halfway across the country.

 

[Proximo]

I like Arizona this week in a survivor pool.

 

[harryhood]

I like this, and do relatively well S/U. I am also in a spread pool and that one is extremely frustrating. Any strategies for either of these formats (S/U and ATS)?

In a S/U pool getting out to a quick start is imperative as catching up late is almost impossible.

My battery is dying but I will post my S/U picks a little bit later.

 

[lefteye]

I like Arizona this week in a survivor pool.

Couldn't hate this call more. Seattle is one of the biggest home field advantages in the league.

 

[lefteye]

I like this, and do relatively well S/U. I am also in a spread pool and that one is extremely frustrating. Any strategies for either of these formats (S/U and ATS)?In a S/U pool getting out to a quick start is imperative as catching up late is almost impossible. My battery is dying but I will post my S/U picks a little bit later.

I'm only in a su pool si I can't comment on anything else. My general strategy is to do the following1. Make picks on tues morning before the site puts up pick %ages.2. Divide it up as I have here. While Balt lost last week, there wasn't a person in the pool who didn't have Baltimore to win. Don't fight those trends.3. Of the games that u think are a toss-up, try to only go against the grain in 2 of these games. This will insure you stay near the top all season and give u a chance to separate yourself with consistency.

 

[gdg76]

Calling Green Bay over Chicago at Soldier a "no-brainer" is a little crazy given that the teams are barely different from last year and every game was close.

Same with Tampa and Atlanta, especially with Tampa at home.

I agree, GB and ATL should win, but to me those are much closer to a toss-up.

 

[3 hour lunch]

Calling Green Bay over Chicago at Soldier a "no-brainer" is a little crazy given that the teams are barely different from last year and every game was close.Same with Tampa and Atlanta, especially with Tampa at home.I agree, GB and ATL should win, but to me those are much closer to a toss-up.

Atl-TB especially. If Vick doesn't get hurt and the Falcons are 0-2, would it matter? Atl is a 1 point favorite right now. That being said, I agree with most of the picks. I think Washingotn takes down a battered Cowboys team, and Oakland should be able to hang with he Jets. May take Cleveland as well...

 

[cdwood]

I like Arizona this week in a survivor pool.

I don't think I would touch an NFC West team in a survivor pool, let alone going up against another NFC West team, anything can happen.

 

[lefteye]

Calling Green Bay over Chicago at Soldier a "no-brainer" is a little crazy given that the teams are barely different from last year and every game was close.Same with Tampa and Atlanta, especially with Tampa at home.I agree, GB and ATL should win, but to me those are much closer to a toss-up.

Well said Re GB vs Chi. My no-brainer comment comes more from the mass picking. I expect the masses to take GB and I generally don't go hard against the masses unless I feel very strongly about it. If GB wins/loses, I don't vary from the rest of the pack (no pun intended).I feel like Atl owns TB. Not sure if there's any validity to that but it appears that TB doesn't match up well against Atl. Couple that with them both being 1-1 and I don't feel like either of them are a cornered animal.

 

[lefteye]

I'm now changing my giants pick to phi based on Vick's status.

 

[gpalmer]

Thanks for starting this, I was looking for a thread like this.

I'm with you in terms of strategy for pick 'em, you need to stay with the pack for the majority of the games. If I'm unsure, I usually go with the herd, just to keep pace.

The league I'm in lists the % of the total aggregated picks for each team, across all leagues. For this week there's only 5 games where the underdog has over 20% of the picks(I bolded my picks and added some comments):

MIA(43%) @CLE | Pretty evenly matched game, giving the nod to the home team(and the herd)

WAS(36%) @DAL | Too many injuries in Dallas right now. Redskins D looks much improved and can get pressure on a QB

SF @CIN (35%) | CIN has too many injuries/distractions right now to win, even with SF playing a 1PM game on the East Coast.

NYG(22%) @PHI | Don't see the Eagles making the same costly mistakes the Rams did last week against the Giants.

ATL @TB(20%) | This game will be closer than most people think, giving the edge to the home team.

In terms of upsets outside of those 5 games, I'm picking:

SEA(13%) over ARI. SEA always steps it up at home, and ARI probably won't be able to run the ball much at all

I'm also considering HOU(13%) over NO. Just a hunch, Houston's D transformed them into a serious contender.

4 picks against the herd is about as many as I want to pick for a week, sitting in first place at 23-9

 

[harryhood]

Confidence in the following Winners:

New England

Pittsburgh

San Diego

Tennessee

Should be Winners/Wont lose ground on the field majority

Detroit

Green Bay

Cleveland

Philadelphia

New Orleans

Carolina

NY Jets

Atlanta

Baltimore

Toss Up's

San Francisco

Seattle

Washington

 

[lefteye]

Confidence in the following Winners:New EnglandPittsburghSan DiegoTennesseeShould be Winners/Wont lose ground on the field majorityDetroitGreen BayClevelandPhiladelphiaNew OrleansCarolinaNY JetsAtlantaBaltimoreToss Up's San FranciscoSeattleWashington

Thx for this. I'm really torn on the Jets game. I feel like the Cinci game is a lock with the way they've been playing and SF coming to them. I'd definitely take the home game there. I'm also struggling to pick Washington and currently have Dallas selected.

 

[lefteye]

Thanks for starting this, I was looking for a thread like this.

I'm with you in terms of strategy for pick 'em, you need to stay with the pack for the majority of the games. If I'm unsure, I usually go with the herd, just to keep pace.

The league I'm in lists the % of the total aggregated picks for each team, across all leagues. For this week there's only 5 games where the underdog has over 20% of the picks(I bolded my picks and added some comments):

MIA(43%) @CLE | Pretty evenly matched game, giving the nod to the home team(and the herd)

WAS(36%) @DAL | Too many injuries in Dallas right now. Redskins D looks much improved and can get pressure on a QB

SF @CIN (35%) | CIN has too many injuries/distractions right now to win, even with SF playing a 1PM game on the East Coast.

NYG(22%) @PHI | Don't see the Eagles making the same costly mistakes the Rams did last week against the Giants.

ATL @TB(20%) | This game will be closer than most people think, giving the edge to the home team.

In terms of upsets outside of those 5 games, I'm picking:

SEA(13%) over ARI. SEA always steps it up at home, and ARI probably won't be able to run the ball much at all

I'm also considering HOU(13%) over NO. Just a hunch, Houston's D transformed them into a serious contender.

4 picks against the herd is about as many as I want to pick for a week, sitting in first place at 23-9

I'm sitting at 23-9 as well. Not liking that you and I are differing on 4/5 games there. The only game we agree on is Phi. I've picked against you in all 4 of those other games. Cin, Atl, Dal and Mia. Urgh.

 

[lefteye]

Well done gpalmer, you must've had a really nice week.

Thanks for starting this, I was looking for a thread like this.

I'm with you in terms of strategy for pick 'em, you need to stay with the pack for the majority of the games. If I'm unsure, I usually go with the herd, just to keep pace.

The league I'm in lists the % of the total aggregated picks for each team, across all leagues. For this week there's only 5 games where the underdog has over 20% of the picks(I bolded my picks and added some comments):

MIA(43%) @CLE | Pretty evenly matched game, giving the nod to the home team(and the herd)

WAS(36%) @DAL | Too many injuries in Dallas right now. Redskins D looks much improved and can get pressure on a QB

SF @CIN (35%) | CIN has too many injuries/distractions right now to win, even with SF playing a 1PM game on the East Coast.

NYG(22%) @PHI | Don't see the Eagles making the same costly mistakes the Rams did last week against the Giants.

ATL @TB(20%) | This game will be closer than most people think, giving the edge to the home team.

In terms of upsets outside of those 5 games, I'm picking:

SEA(13%) over ARI. SEA always steps it up at home, and ARI probably won't be able to run the ball much at all

I'm also considering HOU(13%) over NO. Just a hunch, Houston's D transformed them into a serious contender.

4 picks against the herd is about as many as I want to pick for a week, sitting in first place at 23-9

I'm sitting at 23-9 as well. Not liking that you and I are differing on 4/5 games there. The only game we agree on is Phi. I've picked against you in all 4 of those other games. Cin, Atl, Dal and Mia. Urgh.

 

[harryhood]

sitting on 11 wins this week at least! Another good week but missed the top week payout by a game. Falcons and Jets bit me.

Lets keep this thing going weekly!

 

[lefteye]

sitting on 11 wins this week at least! Another good week but missed the top week payout by a game. Falcons and Jets bit me.Lets keep this thing going weekly!

Well done Harry. I'll get next weeks games up here shortly.