Player Spotlight: Edgerrin James (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

[SIZE=14pt]2006 Player Spotlight Series[/SIZE]

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

[SIZE=14pt]Thread Topic: Edgerrin James, RB, Arizona Cardinals[/SIZE]

Player Page Link: Edgerrin James Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

[SIZE=14pt]The Rules[/SIZE]

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

[*]For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[SIZE=14pt]Best of Luck and ENJOY![/SIZE]

 

[perry147]

With the trade to Arizona Edge will at last be tested to see if he can carry a team without Peyton and company. I think the Edge will struggle in Arizona this year and not have the type year people seem to think. I watched Arizona last year and noticed that the RBs were hit before reaching the LOS more than any team I saw except maybe San Fran.. The OL is the key to the running game Arizona did draft Deuce Lutui (G) in the second round in the NFL draft but most draft experts though that this was a reach and did not address the real issue on the line which was tackle. There is a new Offensive line coach for the Cards but this is the third OL coach since Green became head coach.

The OL problems will hurt Edge's value the most and I think most of his yards next year will come running outside the tackles.

My Projections are:

Rushing 8 TD's and 1,100 - 1,200 yards,

Rec. 400 - 500 yards rec. 0 rec. TDs . (in the last 5 years Edge has only scored 2 Rec. TD's)

These numbers are not first round fantasy material in many drafts.

 

[valence]

I think Edge is a back that will succeed despite a terrible OL. Teams can not put 8 in the box on him with that passing game. Edge is most definitely still top 10. I'd put him around RB6.

If 943 year old Emmit can put up 9 TD's, Edge can certainly match that.

300 rushes 1200yds 10 TDs

40 receptions 325 yds 1 TD

Total 1500yds 11 TDs

 

[Traders2001]

Edge .

300 rushes 1300 yds 13 TD's

55 reception 550 yds 3 TD's

1850 total yards 16 TD's.

Better then in INdy .

Why no Peyton selfish Manning.

 

[Wade]

In 2005, the Arizona Cardinals had 360 rush attempts for 1138 yards. In 2004, they had 475 rush attempts for 1668 yards. Given that rush attempts/yards window, Edge may have the opportunity required for a strong fantasy RB season.

With a career yards per carry of 4.2 (on 2188 carries) and 8 yards per catch (on 356 receptions), James definitely has the skill to take advantage of every touch he gets in the Cardinal offense. With 14 total touchdowns last year in Indianapolis, he returned to the productivity he enjoyed during his first two seasons in the NFL, showing he still has what it takes to be a top fantasy RB.

Though his rushing touchdowns and yards per carry should suffer a bit in the move to Arizona, the Cardinals acquired a back they can (and will) feed the ball to 20-30 times per game.

Edgerrin James, RB ARI

350 ATT, 1365 YDS, 8 TD

50 REC, 350 REC YDS, 1 REC TD

 

[Q-Bert]

The big question regarding James is how big is the difference in Offensive Line talent between Indy and Arizona. Because at all of the other offensive positions they are a pretty even match to the years when Edge put up his best numbers. I think he is going to do fine in Arizona, maybe not top 5 but still a number 1 back.

330 Carries

1353 Yards

8 TDs

50 Catches

400 Yards

1 TD

 

[Keys Myaths]

To me, the question isn't so much the offensive line (although, it is a factor) as it is the Arizona defense. If Arizona is down 14-21 points consistently like they were last year, there isn't going to be a lot of 2nd half rushing yards/touchdowns for Edge, which is what he really capitalized on last year.

Edge needs a lot of carries to be a successful fantasy back. That was his strength in Indy--he'd get you 110 yards a game and a TD, because he carried the ball in the 4th quarter when Indy was ahead.

In Arizona, that's not happening.

1050 yards rushing

5 touchdowns

35 catches

200 yards receiving

1 receiving TD

 

[Gargoylez]

300 Carries

1050 Yards

6 TDs

40 Catches

380 Yards

1 TD

He will struggle getting touches with Boldin and Fitz to throw too, not to mention Pope and Johnson.

He would be a good #2 RB and an excellent reserve back, but until the Cardinals offensive line can prove otherwise, they are sub-par at best.

 

[Varmint]

I had EJ on my roster @ $32 ($120 cap) and 1 year left on his contract...

I traded him for C. Palmer @ $9 and 2 years left on his contract.....

I just don't see EJ in AZ being worth 1/4 of my cap next year....

 

[David Yudkin]

My Projections are:Rushing 8 TD's and 1,100 - 1,200 yards, Rec. 400 - 500 yards rec. 0 rec. TDs . (in the last 5 years Edge has only scored 2 Rec. TD's)These numbers are not first round fantasy material in many drafts.

This is where I feel that many people are not fully aware of what a first round RB is really worth and/or what they should be producing.Most leagues go RB crazy on draft day in the first round, so let's argue that there are 10 RB selected in a 12-team draft in the first round.The numbers as listed in the above post are 1500-1700 total yards with 8 TD. In a standard scoring league, that is 198-218 fantasy points.198 points scored last year ranked as the #11 RB. 218 points scored would have ranked 9th but just a few points from ranking 8th.Even with the numbers presented here--apparently with the intent of showing a poor sseaon in Arizona--STILL reflects production as a first round pick. Maybe not as a Top 5 pick, but as a 1st round pick none the less.

 

[Keys Myaths]

To me, the question isn't so much the offensive line (although, it is a factor) as it is the Arizona defense.  If Arizona is down 14-21 points consistently like they were last year, there isn't going to be a lot of 2nd half rushing yards/touchdowns for Edge, which is what he really capitalized on last year.

Edge needs a lot of carries to be a successful fantasy back.  That was his strength in Indy--he'd get you 110 yards a game and a TD, because he carried the ball in the 4th quarter when Indy was ahead.

In Arizona, that's not happening.

1050 yards rushing

5 touchdowns

35 catches

200 yards receiving

1 receiving TD

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just for perspective, these numbers would put Edge at RB19 last year.If he's still going in the early-mid first round, he's going to be HIGHLY overrated this year. Stay the hell away here.

 

[Bollywood]

325 Carries

1250 yds

3.85 avg

7 - 9 Tds

55 catches

425 yds

7.75 avg

2 Tds

 

[perry147]

My Projections are:

Rushing 8 TD's and 1,100 - 1,200 yards,

Rec. 400 - 500 yards rec. 0 rec. TDs . (in the last 5 years Edge has only scored 2 Rec. TD's)

These numbers are not first round fantasy material in many drafts.

This is where I feel that many people are not fully aware of what a first round RB is really worth and/or what they should be producing.Most leagues go RB crazy on draft day in the first round, so let's argue that there are 10 RB selected in a 12-team draft in the first round.

The numbers as listed in the above post are 1500-1700 total yards with 8 TD. In a standard scoring league, that is 198-218 fantasy points.

198 points scored last year ranked as the #11 RB. 218 points scored would have ranked 9th but just a few points from ranking 8th.

Even with the numbers presented here--apparently with the intent of showing a poor sseaon in Arizona--STILL reflects production as a first round pick. Maybe not as a Top 5 pick, but as a 1st round pick none the less.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Your point is taken.But the seperation between RB #11 - RB #18 is only 31 points. (16 game season that is only 2 points per game). I can wait seven more RB's and still get almost the same value.

If I am drafting at the end of the first round I would go CJ, LF, or SS then in the second take Westbrook and get the same production.

 

[TheFanatic]

I recall another pass catching RB doing extremely well with Kurt Warner at the helm. Lots of penetration at the line? Time for a screen pass to the house for Edge....Warner may have the gun to throw it deep every play but he makes extremely quick reads and if the 3rd read is an open Edge underneath then Warner is going to take advantage of that.

With Bolden and Fitz split out on each side going deep, there is going to be a whole lot of room underneath and there is now way they are going to be able to send the dogs every time on the Zona offense because they have too many weapons now and most importantly a RB that can hang back and block maybe better than any other RB in the league....That makes for a potent offense. And the comment about the Cards having a poor D only helps Edge's numbers in my opinion because he is very involved in the passing game and will be utilized in games the Cards are behind other than say a Jamal Lewis or other pounder....

 

[CalBear]

It's hard to like Edge's move to Arizona. There may be reason for optimism in the desert, with an effective passing attack and a new, highly touted offensive lineman. But this is a team that hasn't had a 1000-yard rusher since 1998, and last year was dead last in the league in every rushing stat (and it wasn't close). Arizona has been where running backs go to die.

Obviously, Edge is a better back than anyone Arizona has had back there, so some improvement is inevitable. Over his past three years, Edge has averaged 1800 total yards and 11 TDs, and had 1840 yards and 14 TDs in 2005, playing in a much more effective running offense. He averaged 330 carries and 50 receptions.

The last Arizona back to have more than 275 carries was Garrison Hearst. Under Denny Green in Arizona, no back has had more than 35 receptions--Arrington, Shipp, and Ayanbadejo split 94 receptions in 2005, and all those guys are still on the roster at this point. And in Minnesota, the featured back never had 40 receptions after Green's first year as a coach (1992); Amp Lee was used extensively as a receiving back. So I think you have to knock Edge's carries and receptions down from his Indianapolis levels, as well as his yards per rush and reception.

If we give him 300 carries (more than anyone in Arizona in the past 10+ years, and more than any Denny Green back ever) and 40 receptions (more than any featured back under Denny Green), a 4.0 ypc average and a 8.0 ypr average (both lower than his Indy averages but higher than anyone in Arizona has managed), that works out to 1200 rushing yards, 320 receiving yards. To me, that looks like an absolute top, and I'm going to nudge him down from there because the history just doesn't look like it's in his favor.

290 carries

1160 yards

35 receptions

280 yards

9 TD

Good for approximately RB#12 by FBG scoring. I think those numbers are on the optimistic side; Arizona would consider that season a remarkable achievement.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

18 carries a game = 288 @ 4.0 =1150

2.5 catches a game = 40 @ 7.5 =300

1,500 yds and 10 TD. I think that's on the conservative side...I like his upside a lot and certainly will be a steal in the middle/late 1st round of any redraft league this upcoming year.

 

[H.K.]

Not much to add to what has already been said except this little nugget: There were almost 100 receptions out of the Cards backfield last season (Shipp, Arrington had 60 combined & Ayanbedjo added 35 at FB), so I think PPR guys should take note.

Edge will lack the consistency he had in Indy by putting up his usual 90-110 total yards each week, the Cards are still rebuilding so I anticipate some down weeks. However, on the whole he'll still benefit from a strong passing attack to keep the focus off of him and be as effective as Emmitt was in the red zone a few years back.

285 carries 1,115

50 recepts for 385

8 Total TD's

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Edgerin James played extremely well last season in an outstanding offense. I think there's a ton of potential on the Arizona Cardinals offense, the passing attack will definately spread out the field and help open things up for him. To compare him to some of the other backs Arizona has had over the last several years is a crime.

Arizona's defense doesn't bother me much, Edge is an extremely good receiver and he had some outstanding seasons a few years back when Indy's defense was terrible as well.

Arizona will not be a straight forward rushing team like Pittsburgh, but they'll use Edgerin James in their offense enough to make him an elite back.

1200 rushing yards with 8 TD rushing

45 receptions for 420 yards and 3 td's

 

[sacked4loss]

400 carries 1300 yards 10tds 32 rec. 220yards 0tds

 

[PACKER 7]

To me, the question isn't so much the offensive line (although, it is a factor) as it is the Arizona defense.  If Arizona is down 14-21 points consistently like they were last year, there isn't going to be a lot of 2nd half rushing yards/touchdowns for Edge, which is what he really capitalized on last year.

Edge needs a lot of carries to be a successful fantasy back.  That was his strength in Indy--he'd get you 110 yards a game and a TD, because he carried the ball in the 4th quarter when Indy was ahead.

In Arizona, that's not happening.

1050 yards rushing

5 touchdowns

35 catches

200 yards receiving

1 receiving TD

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Those were initial my thoughts exactly. Edge's performance depends more on AZs D than OL. However, in Indy, for years he played behind a D that was terrible until last season. He still managed to avg over 1300 yds in Indy as well with one of those seasons shortened by injury.So given that he's never really had a team with a good D I don't think matters too much.

He should, however, face a much easier rushing schedule this season. AZ plays in the West and also has to play the NFC North and AFC West. I think this will add up to be a surprisingly great season for Edge. So to say he'll be overvalued is maybe not accurate. He could pan out as a top 5 back this season. However, I wont promise that. I think he gets a boost in the TD category though, b/c they'll depend more on him in the RedZone than Indy did. JMO.

So in summary Edge should be:

385 rushes

1600 yds

16 rushing TDs

65 rec

625 yds

6 rec TDs

 

[Tau837]

It's hard to like Edge's move to Arizona.  There may be reason for optimism in the desert, with an effective passing attack and a new, highly touted offensive lineman.  But this is a team that hasn't had a 1000-yard rusher since 1998, and last year was dead last in the league in every rushing stat (and it wasn't close).  Arizona has been where running backs go to die.

Obviously, Edge is a better back than anyone Arizona has had back there, so some improvement is inevitable.  Over his past three years, Edge has averaged 1800 total yards and 11 TDs, and had 1840 yards and 14 TDs in 2005, playing in a much more effective running offense.  He averaged 330 carries and 50 receptions. 

The last Arizona back to have more than 275 carries was Garrison Hearst.  Under Denny Green in Arizona, no back has had more than 35 receptions--Arrington, Shipp, and Ayanbadejo split 94 receptions in 2005, and all those guys are still on the roster at this point.  And in Minnesota, the featured back never had 40 receptions after Green's first year as a coach (1992); Amp Lee was used extensively as a receiving back.  So I think you have to knock Edge's carries and receptions down from his Indianapolis levels, as well as his yards per rush and reception.

If we give him 300 carries (more than anyone in Arizona in the past 10+ years, and more than any Denny Green back ever) and 40 receptions (more than any featured back under Denny Green), a 4.0 ypc average and a 8.0 ypr average (both lower than his Indy averages but higher than anyone in Arizona has managed), that works out to 1200 rushing yards, 320 receiving yards.  To me, that looks like an absolute top, and I'm going to nudge him down from there because the history just doesn't look like it's in his favor.

290 carries

1160 yards

35 receptions

280 yards

9 TD

Good for approximately RB#12 by FBG scoring.  I think those numbers are on the optimistic side; Arizona would consider that season a remarkable achievement.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Given that he will almost certainly be selected within the top 10 picks, I won't end up with him.

 

[Assani Fisher]

I'm expecting big things from Edge this year. Records will fall and fantasy games will be won.

 

[Tau837]

To me, the question isn't so much the offensive line (although, it is a factor) as it is the Arizona defense.  If Arizona is down 14-21 points consistently like they were last year, there isn't going to be a lot of 2nd half rushing yards/touchdowns for Edge, which is what he really capitalized on last year.

Edge needs a lot of carries to be a successful fantasy back.  That was his strength in Indy--he'd get you 110 yards a game and a TD, because he carried the ball in the 4th quarter when Indy was ahead.

In Arizona, that's not happening.

1050 yards rushing

5 touchdowns

35 catches

200 yards receiving

1 receiving TD

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Those were initial my thoughts exactly. Edge's performance depends more on AZs D than OL. However, in Indy, for years he played behind a D that was terrible until last season. He still managed to avg over 1300 yds in Indy as well with one of those seasons shortened by injury.So given that he's never really had a team with a good D I don't think matters too much.

He should, however, face a much easier rushing schedule this season. AZ plays in the West and also has to play the NFC North and AFC West. I think this will add up to be a surprisingly great season for Edge. So to say he'll be overvalued is maybe not accurate. He could pan out as a top 5 back this season. However, I wont promise that. I think he gets a boost in the TD category though, b/c they'll depend more on him in the RedZone than Indy did. JMO.

So in summary Edge should be:

385 rushes

1600 yds

16 rushing TDs

65 rec

625 yds

6 rec TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I assume you realize you are projecting this for him:- His second highest total in carries (not more than 360 since 2000)

- His second highest total in rushing yards

- Career high in rushing TDs (never scored more than 13)

- Career high in receptions (not more than 51 since 2002)

- Career high in receiving yards (never more than 594, not more than 483 since 2000)

- Career high in receiving TDs (never more than 5, not more than 1 since 2000)

- One of the top few fantasy RB seasons of all time (off the top of my head only Faulk in 2000 and Priest in 2002 & 2003 were better, and only by a little bit)

 

[DarkManX]

Everyone says its the O-Line that will cause a decline but I mean, they havent had a RB the calibre of Edge. Still of course gotta suspect a decline in his #s from last year and id probably be happy with...

1200 + 10TDs and around 350 catching, throw in 1-2 TDs in the air.

Where that puts him scoring wise im not sure.

 

[Phlash]

He will be utilized... a lot. He's a workhorse back and will have a great passing game to complement him. However, Kurt Warner < Peyton Manning, so I do expect a drop off in his overall numbers. Fitz and Boldin still seem like they should have 1200+ each, so his receiving numbers will be limited to times when they are behind (which could be often)

310/1240/10

55/400/2

 

[David Yudkin]

It's hard to like Edge's move to Arizona.  There may be reason for optimism in the desert, with an effective passing attack and a new, highly touted offensive lineman.  But this is a team that hasn't had a 1000-yard rusher since 1998, and last year was dead last in the league in every rushing stat (and it wasn't close).  Arizona has been where running backs go to die.

Obviously, Edge is a better back than anyone Arizona has had back there, so some improvement is inevitable.  Over his past three years, Edge has averaged 1800 total yards and 11 TDs, and had 1840 yards and 14 TDs in 2005, playing in a much more effective running offense.  He averaged 330 carries and 50 receptions. 

The last Arizona back to have more than 275 carries was Garrison Hearst.  Under Denny Green in Arizona, no back has had more than 35 receptions--Arrington, Shipp, and Ayanbadejo split 94 receptions in 2005, and all those guys are still on the roster at this point.  And in Minnesota, the featured back never had 40 receptions after Green's first year as a coach (1992); Amp Lee was used extensively as a receiving back.  So I think you have to knock Edge's carries and receptions down from his Indianapolis levels, as well as his yards per rush and reception.

If we give him 300 carries (more than anyone in Arizona in the past 10+ years, and more than any Denny Green back ever) and 40 receptions (more than any featured back under Denny Green), a 4.0 ypc average and a 8.0 ypr average (both lower than his Indy averages but higher than anyone in Arizona has managed), that works out to 1200 rushing yards, 320 receiving yards.  To me, that looks like an absolute top, and I'm going to nudge him down from there because the history just doesn't look like it's in his favor.

290 carries

1160 yards

35 receptions

280 yards

9 TD

Good for approximately RB#12 by FBG scoring.  I think those numbers are on the optimistic side; Arizona would consider that season a remarkable achievement.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just curious as to how you compare Emmitt Smith at 35 vs Edge at 27 or 28.Emmitt had 1042 yards and 9 TD in 15 games. So basically with your numbers Edge will do 400 yards better than Emmitt and score an equal amount.

 

[fightingillini]

Edge gives AZ the first legit RB in a long time. With Boldin and Fitz, teams won't be able to stack the line. OL is clearly a concern. Warner worked well with a pass-catching RB in Faulk, so James will get a lot of passes thrown to him, keeping his value up in case the D gives up a lot of points. Definitely a step down from his situation in IND, but he still should put up solid stats. Still a top 10 RB, but not a top 5 RB anymore.

315 car, 1220 yds rushing, 10 TD (3.87 YPC)

55 rec, 400 yds receiving, 1 TD

 

[CalBear]

Just curious as to how you compare Emmitt Smith at 35 vs Edge at 27 or 28.

Emmitt had 1042 yards and 9 TD in 15 games.  So basically with your numbers Edge will do 400 yards better than Emmitt and score an equal amount.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I considered that. One thing to note is that Emmitt did get the most RB carries in recent history in Arizona (267). 400 yards is a big difference, given a relatively minor difference in carries (I am projecting James for 290). I think Emmitt's 9 TDs were anomalous. Denny Green has only twice had his primary RB score more than 9 TDs (1992, Allen, and 2000, Smith (7 rushing, 3 receiving)). And twice, a backup RB has had 10+ TDs (Hoard). With the receiving options this team has, plus the other backs on the roster, I think it's unlikely that Edge hits double digits.

 

[PACKER 7]

To me, the question isn't so much the offensive line (although, it is a factor) as it is the Arizona defense.  If Arizona is down 14-21 points consistently like they were last year, there isn't going to be a lot of 2nd half rushing yards/touchdowns for Edge, which is what he really capitalized on last year.

Edge needs a lot of carries to be a successful fantasy back.  That was his strength in Indy--he'd get you 110 yards a game and a TD, because he carried the ball in the 4th quarter when Indy was ahead.

In Arizona, that's not happening.

1050 yards rushing

5 touchdowns

35 catches

200 yards receiving

1 receiving TD

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Those were initial my thoughts exactly. Edge's performance depends more on AZs D than OL. However, in Indy, for years he played behind a D that was terrible until last season. He still managed to avg over 1300 yds in Indy as well with one of those seasons shortened by injury.So given that he's never really had a team with a good D I don't think matters too much.

He should, however, face a much easier rushing schedule this season. AZ plays in the West and also has to play the NFC North and AFC West. I think this will add up to be a surprisingly great season for Edge. So to say he'll be overvalued is maybe not accurate. He could pan out as a top 5 back this season. However, I wont promise that. I think he gets a boost in the TD category though, b/c they'll depend more on him in the RedZone than Indy did. JMO.

So in summary Edge should be:

385 rushes

1600 yds

16 rushing TDs

65 rec

625 yds

6 rec TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I assume you realize you are projecting this for him:- His second highest total in carries (not more than 360 since 2000)

- His second highest total in rushing yards

- Career high in rushing TDs (never scored more than 13)

- Career high in receptions (not more than 51 since 2002)

- Career high in receiving yards (never more than 594, not more than 483 since 2000)

- Career high in receiving TDs (never more than 5, not more than 1 since 2000)

- One of the top few fantasy RB seasons of all time (off the top of my head only Faulk in 2000 and Priest in 2002 & 2003 were better, and only by a little bit)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Receiving numbers may be a bit high I guess, but not too high imo. I realize that those are all over the top numbers for his career, but he's never really been the focus of a red zone offensive game plan imo either. I think just by getting away from Manning and gang, he'll see a tremendous increase in red zone production. With the Colts he was more a between the 20s guy.

 

[The Moz]

1100 ru yards

350 rec yards

8 TD's total

 

[Tau837]

Receiving numbers may be a bit high I guess, but not too high imo.  I realize that those are all over the top numbers for his career, but he's never really been the focus of a red zone offensive game plan imo either.  I think just by getting away from Manning and gang, he'll see a tremendous increase in red zone production.  With the Colts he was more a between the 20s guy.

Why do you say he hasn't been the focus of the red zone offensive game plan in the past? Last year, James had 78 carries in the red zone, which was #1 in the league (Alexander was #2 at 69). In 2004, he was #3 in the league in red zone carries. In 2003, he was #4 in the league in red zone carries.It is true that he was not very high in red zone targets over the past few years, but that isn't likely to change in Arizona, with Boldin and Fitzgerald the likely red zone targets.

Incidentally, James had all 13 of his TDs on 78 red zone carries last year. It doesn't appear he will be breaking many (any?) long TDs, so usage in the red zone is definitely critical to his scoring. Now consider that last season the Cards had only 54 red zone rushes last season, 26th in the league. How much will that go up with James?

 

[PACKER 7]

Receiving numbers may be a bit high I guess, but not too high imo.  I realize that those are all over the top numbers for his career, but he's never really been the focus of a red zone offensive game plan imo either.  I think just by getting away from Manning and gang, he'll see a tremendous increase in red zone production.  With the Colts he was more a between the 20s guy.

Why do you say he hasn't been the focus of the red zone offensive game plan in the past? Last year, James had 78 carries in the red zone, which was #1 in the league (Alexander was #2 at 69). In 2004, he was #3 in the league in red zone carries. In 2003, he was #4 in the league in red zone carries.It is true that he was not very high in red zone targets over the past few years, but that isn't likely to change in Arizona, with Boldin and Fitzgerald the likely red zone targets.

Incidentally, James had all 13 of his TDs on 78 red zone carries last year. It doesn't appear he will be breaking many (any?) long TDs, so usage in the red zone is definitely critical to his scoring. Now consider that last season the Cards had only 54 red zone rushes last season, 26th in the league. How much will that go up with James?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'll have to defer to your stats. They do seem to prove me wrong, but I guess that was just my perception. It just seems he isn't targeted much in the Red Zone. I feel, let me say feel, that his red zone targets will increase. I know the receivers he has are outstanding, but I think D. Green will try to get Edge the ball more inside the 20 than he has ever seen before. Again I have no proof it's just my feeling.

 

[CalBear]

  I feel, let me say feel, that his red zone targets will increase.  I know the receivers he has are outstanding, but I think D. Green will try to get Edge the ball more inside the 20 than he has ever seen before.  Again I have no proof it's just my feeling.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Denny Green does not have a history of giving lots of red zone targets and touches to his primary running back.

 

[fightingillini]

Denny Green does not have a history of giving lots of red zone targets and touches to his primary running back.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's most likely due to personnel. He had Culpepper at QB and Moss at WR when he was at Minnesota. Culpepper was a fantastic running QB in the redzone.....always vultured 5+ TDs away from RBs. Moss is probably the best redzone WR in the NFL. Why run the ball when you can throw a jump ball to Moss?Situation is different in AZ. Warner isn't going to vulture rushing TDs. Edge is a much better RB than any of Denny Green's RBs in Minny. Sure, Fitz is a good redzone WR, but I would envision Edge getting a lot of looks in the redzone, albeit less than in Indy, because AZ won't be there as much.

They didn't pay Edge big $$$$$$ to be a decoy in the redzone.

 

[Blackjacks]

To me, the question isn't so much the offensive line (although, it is a factor) as it is the Arizona defense.  If Arizona is down 14-21 points consistently like they were last year, there isn't going to be a lot of 2nd half rushing yards/touchdowns for Edge, which is what he really capitalized on last year.

Edge needs a lot of carries to be a successful fantasy back.  That was his strength in Indy--he'd get you 110 yards a game and a TD, because he carried the ball in the 4th quarter when Indy was ahead.

In Arizona, that's not happening.

1050 yards rushing

5 touchdowns

35 catches

200 yards receiving

1 receiving TD

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Those were initial my thoughts exactly. Edge's performance depends more on AZs D than OL. However, in Indy, for years he played behind a D that was terrible until last season. He still managed to avg over 1300 yds in Indy as well with one of those seasons shortened by injury.So given that he's never really had a team with a good D I don't think matters too much.

He should, however, face a much easier rushing schedule this season. AZ plays in the West and also has to play the NFC North and AFC West. I think this will add up to be a surprisingly great season for Edge. So to say he'll be overvalued is maybe not accurate. He could pan out as a top 5 back this season. However, I wont promise that. I think he gets a boost in the TD category though, b/c they'll depend more on him in the RedZone than Indy did. JMO.

So in summary Edge should be:

385 rushes

1600 yds

16 rushing TDs

65 rec

625 yds

6 rec TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I assume you realize you are projecting this for him:- His second highest total in carries (not more than 360 since 2000)

- His second highest total in rushing yards

- Career high in rushing TDs (never scored more than 13)

- Career high in receptions (not more than 51 since 2002)

- Career high in receiving yards (never more than 594, not more than 483 since 2000)

- Career high in receiving TDs (never more than 5, not more than 1 since 2000)

- One of the top few fantasy RB seasons of all time (off the top of my head only Faulk in 2000 and Priest in 2002 & 2003 were better, and only by a little bit)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

All that seemed alittle high for me to.

 

[Jack Ham & Eggs]

314 rushes

1325 yards

4.2 avg

11 TD

51 catches

349 yards

6.8 avg

2 TD

1674 yards, 13 TD total

I don't think the move to the desert is going to hurt Edge's numbers as much as many have predicted. These are not your father's Arizona Cardinals. Now, obviously this isn't going to be Indy, but I think the skill position tools are in place for Denny Green to drive the resurgence (well, perhaps, "surgence" is more applicable). At any rate, Edge should be somewhere around Top 5 among RB. If he slides out of the 1st round in your draft, especially a re-draft, he's going to be a major, major bargain.

 

[Keys Myaths]

These are not your father's Arizona Cardinals.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How many times was this said last year before the season started?

 

[Jack Ham & Eggs]

I don't know, but this team has more talent at the skill positions than most. James, Boldin, and Fitzgerald are all legit Pro Bowlers. Green is a great offensive mind.

I'm not expecting the playoffs, but this team is headed in the right direction.

 

[David Yudkin]

314 rushes

1325 yards

4.2 avg

11 TD

51 catches

349 yards

6.8 avg

2 TD

1674 yards, 13 TD total

I don't think the move to the desert is going to hurt Edge's numbers as much as many have predicted. These are not your father's Arizona Cardinals. Now, obviously this isn't going to be Indy, but I think the skill position tools are in place for Denny Green to drive the resurgence (well, perhaps, "surgence" is more applicable). At any rate, Edge should be somewhere around Top 5 among RB. If he slides out of the 1st round in your draft, especially a re-draft, he's going to be a major, major bargain.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Based on these projections, Edge would have roughly 10 fewer total yards per game and about the same number of TD as last year--with roughly 50 fewer carries. I personally don't see that happening given the mediocrity of the OL, but as an Edge owner I hope you are right.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

love to see all the negative posts in here on Edge.

While the cards haven't had a super-productive RB in a long time, they haven't had a back even REMOTELY as talented as Edge....ever.

While I don't have a crystal ball, I think Edge will do much better than Emmitt did, and will benefit dramatically from having a QB/WRs combo that will keep the focus off him.

No projections yet, but I'm working on them.

 

[Keys Myaths]

love to see all the negative posts in here on Edge.

While the cards haven't had a super-productive RB in a long time, they haven't had a back even REMOTELY as talented as Edge....ever.

While I don't have a crystal ball, I think Edge will do much better than Emmitt did, and will benefit dramatically from having a QB/WRs combo that will keep the focus off him.

No projections yet, but I'm working on them.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Edge might be the wild card in the first round this year. He's going to have probably the highest standard deviation of anyone taken in the first round.

 

[dgreen]

These are not your father's Arizona Cardinals.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How many times was this said last year before the season started?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

These aren't your one-year-older cousin's Arizona Cardinals.Seriously, though, while last year's predictions were ridiculous, I just don't see how they won't score points this year.

 

[Keys Myaths]

These are not your father's Arizona Cardinals.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How many times was this said last year before the season started?
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

These aren't your one-year-older cousin's Arizona Cardinals.Seriously, though, while last year's predictions were ridiculous, I just don't see how they won't score points this year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wait until I rip apart Fitz/Boldin this year.I think they're going to lose a couple of games early, and they'll be pushed to start Leinart. Once the rookie comes in, it's all up in the air. That's not the risk I want to take.

 

[dgreen]

I think they're going to lose a couple of games early, and they'll be pushed to start Leinart.  Once the rookie comes in, it's all up in the air.  That's not the risk I want to take.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I guess I haven't considered that. I'm going off the assumption that Warner will be the guy if he's healthy. They start the season with:San Francisco

@Seattle

St. Louis

@Atlanta

Kansas City

Chicago

@Oakland

@Green Bay

I can see them coming out of there in decent shape. I think they'd need an absolutely horrible start (like 1-7) to go to Leinart early.

Regardless, I truly believe Denny wants Leinart to sit a year no matter how the team is doing. As of now, I don't see Leinart playing without an injury to Warner (which is possible, of course).

 

[Keys Myaths]

I think they're going to lose a couple of games early, and they'll be pushed to start Leinart.  Once the rookie comes in, it's all up in the air.  That's not the risk I want to take.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I guess I haven't considered that. I'm going off the assumption that Warner will be the guy if he's healthy. They start the season with:San Francisco

@Seattle

St. Louis

@Atlanta

Kansas City

Chicago

@Oakland

@Green Bay

I can see them coming out of there in decent shape. I think they'd need an absolutely horrible start (like 1-7) to go to Leinart early.

Regardless, I truly believe Denny wants Leinart to sit a year no matter how the team is doing. As of now, I don't see Leinart playing without an injury to Warner (which is possible, of course).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That SF game is going to be bigger than you might think.The expectations are huge for Arizona this year. They signed Edge, they have the receivers in place. They're going to be expected to fly (no pun intended).

They lose to SF...that could start a BAD situation. They then will lose 3 of their next 4, and at 1-5, the pressure will start building to replace Warner. At 2-6 (losing one of those road games), it's going to be massive. Even winning that SF game, they'll be 3-5. Not the greatest start for Warner to keep his job...and the pressure will start mounting even still.

 

[thejag]

Edge in Arizona: something the fans there have been salivating over for months now, and have a right to for putting up with the machinations of the Bidwells for years.

Edge should be okay in the desert. The concern about the OL is based on the Cards' history, but they recently brought in Steve Loney as the line coach (from Minny).

There is little chance they average only 3.16 again this season. Of course, getting his 4.2 career average may be a little more difficult, but 3.8-4.0 is attainable.

325 carries for 1275 and 11

50 receptions for 425 and 3

 

[robertpedro22]

Edge .

300 rushes    1300 yds      13 TD's

55  reception  550 yds        3 TD's

                    1850 total yards 16 TD's.

Better then in INdy .

Why no Peyton selfish Manning.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

324 carries 1421 rush yds 12 TD rushing

38 receptions 428 rec yds 1 rec TD

 

[Callas Disregard]

I think they're going to lose a couple of games early, and they'll be pushed to start Leinart.  Once the rookie comes in, it's all up in the air.  That's not the risk I want to take.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I guess I haven't considered that. I'm going off the assumption that Warner will be the guy if he's healthy. They start the season with:San Francisco

@Seattle

St. Louis

@Atlanta

Kansas City

Chicago

@Oakland

@Green Bay

I can see them coming out of there in decent shape. I think they'd need an absolutely horrible start (like 1-7) to go to Leinart early.

Regardless, I truly believe Denny wants Leinart to sit a year no matter how the team is doing. As of now, I don't see Leinart playing without an injury to Warner (which is possible, of course).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Remember 2 years ago, when Warner was 5-4 with the g-men and he got yanked for Eli? Tiki Barber's numbers took a nosedive when that happened. That's very troubling, and for that reason I'm not ready to try to project Edge.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

LOFL -- pushed to start Leinart....

Yeah, Green is running on someone else's schedule; that's how he got the AZ Cards owner to open up the purse for the first time EVER.

Leinart only starts if Warner goes down, or when the season is ***OFFICIALLY*** lost. These rookie predictions are starting to sound stupid.

 

[jurb26]

Not much to say. It's pretty much all been covered.

Projections

315 carries, 1310 yds, 8 TDs, 38 rec, 270 yds, 1 TD