http://fantasy-footballu.com/buy-low/2012/3/13/pre-draft-overvalued.html
Disclaimer: I dont really like doubting guys or saying someone cant do something, mostly because it makes you look like a miserable , angry hater(which I am not). But these are a few guys that are being overvalued a bit and probably hit their ceilings last year.
QB
Matthew Stafford- Once again, as long as stafford stay healthy, hes fantasy gold. But how can you not be a little overvalued after throwing 40+ TDs in one year? The price your paying for stafford now is astronomical compared to QBs like say, Phillip Rivers, when on a normal year the stats would be close to the same.
Eli Manning- The Superbowl. Enough said. I think Manning has come a long way in the past few years, but he will never be an elite fantasy QB, at least not if Qb trends continue in the direction they are. Again I'm harping on Phillip Rivers here, he is a better fantasy QB than Manning even with Mannings advantage in situation.
RB
Ben Tate- I am one of Tate's biggest supporters and I will continue to be, but im certainly not paying the asking price of what he costs now. As much as I think he could be a top 10 fantasy RB in houston, he is nothing but a shiney handcuff until Foster gets injured or something wierd happens. Foster is the man their and unfortunately for tate, hes going to be cleaning up after him until he is through. I would understand paying a premium if you own Foster, but if thats not the case I would stay away for now.
LeSean McCoy- Obviously McCoy is a supremely talented kid in a perfect situation for himself, but its tough to live up to the precedent he set for him self a year ago. 20 total TDs 1600 yards and 48 catches does not happen every year and for him to live up to that,everything has to go perfect. For some reason I'm afraid of injury with McCoy, I dont have a real reason for it, just a gut feeling. Nothing about him on the field scares me, its just to much could go wrong for me to be buying him right now. Another recent trend in for RBs recently is not being able to put it together for multiple years, I would not surprise me if McCoy becomes a member of that group.
WR
Victor Cruz- Super Bowl. Enough said... well, actually not really. Cruz burst onto the scene this year and never looked back and considering I'm from amherst... I was rather excited with his stats this year. but, being honest with yourself, do you see Cruz doing this again? I dont. Nicks is the #1 there and although Cruz is a great target for Manning, Nicks is the guy there and will gain the majority of the targets. Also, in the super the Patriots took Cruz out of the game, focusing competely on shutting him down. I have a strong feeling opposing defenses will be paying a lot more attention to Cruz next year.
Jordy Nelson- See Victor Cruz , except replace Nicks with Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley.
One stat that keeps me lower on Nelson is the fact that he caught 68 of his 94 targets (72%).
1. He managed to be a top 5 fantasy WR on only 94 targets
2. he got 15 TDs in 68 catches..... thats means 22% of his catches went for touchdowns aka every 5 catches...Thats incredible.
It's not that I totally dis-like Nelson, I just think he is the brandon Stokley to his Peyton Manning(Aaron Rodgers)
Denarius Moore- I may be off on this one and the people that are buying him not could be genius's ... but to quote my inner Lee Corso ... Not so fast my friends. I still think Darrius Heyward Bey has the upper hand in this battle and I need to see how training camp plays out before I'm comfortable paying the price I see people already payinf for Moore.