JFS171
Footballguy
There's a few random variations of threads seemingly trying to hit on this topic: Who are you watching in the FA pools of your dynasty leagues? We've had the off-season stash thread, but this is specifically intended to focus on finding value from the waiver wire.
We all know churning the last few spots on your roster can hit big. We also know there will be some out-of-nowhere rookies/2nd year guys that light it up when they get the chance. CJ Anderson was a prime example of this. You obviously can't hoard everyone, and roster depth varies across leagues. The key is knowing when you can leave a guy on the wire and when he's worth the roster spot.
So with that, here's a handful of guys I'm keeping my eye on (in no particular order)... would encourage others to add their thoughts as well. Most of my list comes from guys that are/were FAs in a dynasty rostering 320 players, and most of these guys need a change of scenery or an injury to happen ahead of them on the depth chart that gives them a shot... but that's why they're deep FAs
RUNNING BACKS:
Bryce Brown (Bills) -- Sure sounds like Brown is losing his roster spot for the Bills. Despite bouncing around Philly and Buffalo's depth charts, Brown is just 24 years old, and his running abilities are unquestioned. We've seen guys with crippling fumbling issues figure it out (Tiki Barber comes to mind), and Brown may be in a position to choose his next team. I've seen him cut in multiple leagues for rookie drafts... if he stays in Buffalo, he probably belongs on the wire for an offseason stash. If he gets his walking papers, I'm holding till we find out where he lands.
Malcolm Brown (Rams) -- A Matt Waldman Favorite, Brown had a very strong combine aside from the 40, perhaps the most overrated event for RBs. A 4-star recruit out of HS and a top-3 RB recruit, Brown joined the UT program in the midst of a rather epic decline. His OL was atrocious, and Brown seemingly never progressed. His metrics paint a different picture...his 3-cone of 6.86 and short shuttle of 4.16 rank 14th and 19th best among RBs since 2006... at 225 lbs. He's a big, agile, shifty runner with a pedigree on a loaded depth chart... and has some passing game prowess to boot. Brown's probably going to force the Rams to either cut someone else or expose him to waivers. He's already got a 100-yard game this preseason with a TD.
Michael Dyer (Raiders) -- Dyer has taken a Crowell-like path to the NFL after his freshman year at Auburn where he broke Bo Jackson's freshman record for rushing yards. I'm sure most of us remember just how dynamic a player he was back then... luckily for Dyer, he's avoided major injury (to my knowledge) that would've sapped that natural talent. Now he's turning heads in Oakland where the only thing that stands between him and a roster spot is the ghost of Trent Richardson, who he's running circles around in camp. Roy Helu appears poised to eventually handle the COP and 3rd down role for the Raiders (though he's battling injury and hasn't practiced yet). If Murray goes down, however, I don't personally expect the Raiders to hand over a feature-back role to Helu. And Murray going down isn't THAT far fetched... he's got a torn ACL, surgically repaired ankle, foot and shoulder sprains, as well as a wicked concussion from last year on his resume.
Brandon Wegher (Panthers) -- Wegher too has taken quite the path to get to the NFL. His pro-day results painted a picture of a pretty solid running back, running a 4.5 40 at 213lbs with 37" vert and a 118" broad jump. Now he finds himself in Carolina where he's reportedly pushing Fozzy Whitaker for a roster spot. The Panthers also drafted Cameron Artis-Payne in the 5th round, but we've seen UDFA's beat out late draft picks before... and both are behind Jonathan Stewart, a guy who always seems to be nicked up a little bit. Wegher doesn't need to be rostered right now, but keep an eye on him if he makes the team. The Panthers seem to really love this kid, and for good reason.
Thomas Rawls (Seahawks) -- Talk about a loaded depth chart... Lynch, Turbin, Michael are locked in as the 1-3, yet Rawls keeps earning praise. Again, he'd likely need a change of scenery, but Rawls has some talent and could be traded or exposed to waivers if the Seahawks can't keep everyone. In Dallas, hypothetically, he'd be extremely, extremely interesting.
Dion Lewis (Patriots) -- The thought of rostering Patriots' RBs turns the stomach of most fantasy owners. However, we all know there's value here if a guy emerges. Shane Vereen was quite valuable in PPR leagues, and Blount has done just fine for himself in NE as well. Enter Dion Lewis who finally got his opportunity last week for the Patriots and lit up the screen. Quick and explosive, Lewis appeared shifty and determined against the Saints. He's a long shot, but we've seen guys go from relative obscurity elsewhere to being stars for NE. White has nothing locked up as the 3rd down back, and Lewis looked as good as he looked for the Browns a few years ago when they had big, big plans for him. If he's truly healthy, Lewis could emerge as a valuable PPR guy in Belichek's offense (which is suddenly devoid of impact WRs).
WIDE RECEIVERS:
Duron Carter (Colts) -- Last fall, the hype train was running out of control on Carter. Now in most leagues, he's a FA or at the very bottom of someone's roster. Some are still holding, but he's out there in a good number of leagues. Waldman said Carter would've ranked no lower than 5th among rookie WRs in his RSP, and Carter opened camp with play after play. His situation is now a lot murkier after the Colts signed Andre Johnson, drafted Dorsett in the first round, and Carter played two utterly forgettable preseason games. Now he's on the cusp of not making the roster, though it's likely he'll hang onto a spot in the end. There's a ton of upside here in a Luck passing offense for a 6'5" guy that can run like the wind. He offers the Colts something they can't get from smurfs Hilton and Dorsett, and should he be cut, would likely have plenty of teams lining up to add him to their roster.
Darren Waller (Ravens) -- Waller fits the profile of former GT wide outs that have gone on to tremendous success in the NFL. His MockDraftable Similarity Scores should have prospective owners salivating (highest comps of Mike Evans, Michael Floyd, and Marquess Colston). He's also turning some heads at camp while first rounder Breshaud Perriman nurses an injury. Waller gives Flacco and Trestman a HUGE (6'6" 238lbs), fast (4.46), leaper of a WR (37" vert, 125" broad) that generally fits the mold of guys Trestman has used on the perimeter in the past.
TIGHT ENDS:
Derek Carrier (Redskins) -- In the wake of Niles Paul's season-ending injury and Logan Paulsen's foot injury, the Redskins depth chart at TE is extremely thin. Jordan Reed is undoubtedly talented, but he's also struggled to stay on the field. Enter Carrier who the Redskins acquired earlier this camp from the 49ers. Carrier isn't going to block many guys (neither is Reed), but he can move and catch as a converted WR, and considering the opportunity, he's one to keep an eye on.
We all know churning the last few spots on your roster can hit big. We also know there will be some out-of-nowhere rookies/2nd year guys that light it up when they get the chance. CJ Anderson was a prime example of this. You obviously can't hoard everyone, and roster depth varies across leagues. The key is knowing when you can leave a guy on the wire and when he's worth the roster spot.
So with that, here's a handful of guys I'm keeping my eye on (in no particular order)... would encourage others to add their thoughts as well. Most of my list comes from guys that are/were FAs in a dynasty rostering 320 players, and most of these guys need a change of scenery or an injury to happen ahead of them on the depth chart that gives them a shot... but that's why they're deep FAs
RUNNING BACKS:
Bryce Brown (Bills) -- Sure sounds like Brown is losing his roster spot for the Bills. Despite bouncing around Philly and Buffalo's depth charts, Brown is just 24 years old, and his running abilities are unquestioned. We've seen guys with crippling fumbling issues figure it out (Tiki Barber comes to mind), and Brown may be in a position to choose his next team. I've seen him cut in multiple leagues for rookie drafts... if he stays in Buffalo, he probably belongs on the wire for an offseason stash. If he gets his walking papers, I'm holding till we find out where he lands.
Malcolm Brown (Rams) -- A Matt Waldman Favorite, Brown had a very strong combine aside from the 40, perhaps the most overrated event for RBs. A 4-star recruit out of HS and a top-3 RB recruit, Brown joined the UT program in the midst of a rather epic decline. His OL was atrocious, and Brown seemingly never progressed. His metrics paint a different picture...his 3-cone of 6.86 and short shuttle of 4.16 rank 14th and 19th best among RBs since 2006... at 225 lbs. He's a big, agile, shifty runner with a pedigree on a loaded depth chart... and has some passing game prowess to boot. Brown's probably going to force the Rams to either cut someone else or expose him to waivers. He's already got a 100-yard game this preseason with a TD.
Michael Dyer (Raiders) -- Dyer has taken a Crowell-like path to the NFL after his freshman year at Auburn where he broke Bo Jackson's freshman record for rushing yards. I'm sure most of us remember just how dynamic a player he was back then... luckily for Dyer, he's avoided major injury (to my knowledge) that would've sapped that natural talent. Now he's turning heads in Oakland where the only thing that stands between him and a roster spot is the ghost of Trent Richardson, who he's running circles around in camp. Roy Helu appears poised to eventually handle the COP and 3rd down role for the Raiders (though he's battling injury and hasn't practiced yet). If Murray goes down, however, I don't personally expect the Raiders to hand over a feature-back role to Helu. And Murray going down isn't THAT far fetched... he's got a torn ACL, surgically repaired ankle, foot and shoulder sprains, as well as a wicked concussion from last year on his resume.
Brandon Wegher (Panthers) -- Wegher too has taken quite the path to get to the NFL. His pro-day results painted a picture of a pretty solid running back, running a 4.5 40 at 213lbs with 37" vert and a 118" broad jump. Now he finds himself in Carolina where he's reportedly pushing Fozzy Whitaker for a roster spot. The Panthers also drafted Cameron Artis-Payne in the 5th round, but we've seen UDFA's beat out late draft picks before... and both are behind Jonathan Stewart, a guy who always seems to be nicked up a little bit. Wegher doesn't need to be rostered right now, but keep an eye on him if he makes the team. The Panthers seem to really love this kid, and for good reason.
Thomas Rawls (Seahawks) -- Talk about a loaded depth chart... Lynch, Turbin, Michael are locked in as the 1-3, yet Rawls keeps earning praise. Again, he'd likely need a change of scenery, but Rawls has some talent and could be traded or exposed to waivers if the Seahawks can't keep everyone. In Dallas, hypothetically, he'd be extremely, extremely interesting.
Dion Lewis (Patriots) -- The thought of rostering Patriots' RBs turns the stomach of most fantasy owners. However, we all know there's value here if a guy emerges. Shane Vereen was quite valuable in PPR leagues, and Blount has done just fine for himself in NE as well. Enter Dion Lewis who finally got his opportunity last week for the Patriots and lit up the screen. Quick and explosive, Lewis appeared shifty and determined against the Saints. He's a long shot, but we've seen guys go from relative obscurity elsewhere to being stars for NE. White has nothing locked up as the 3rd down back, and Lewis looked as good as he looked for the Browns a few years ago when they had big, big plans for him. If he's truly healthy, Lewis could emerge as a valuable PPR guy in Belichek's offense (which is suddenly devoid of impact WRs).
WIDE RECEIVERS:
Duron Carter (Colts) -- Last fall, the hype train was running out of control on Carter. Now in most leagues, he's a FA or at the very bottom of someone's roster. Some are still holding, but he's out there in a good number of leagues. Waldman said Carter would've ranked no lower than 5th among rookie WRs in his RSP, and Carter opened camp with play after play. His situation is now a lot murkier after the Colts signed Andre Johnson, drafted Dorsett in the first round, and Carter played two utterly forgettable preseason games. Now he's on the cusp of not making the roster, though it's likely he'll hang onto a spot in the end. There's a ton of upside here in a Luck passing offense for a 6'5" guy that can run like the wind. He offers the Colts something they can't get from smurfs Hilton and Dorsett, and should he be cut, would likely have plenty of teams lining up to add him to their roster.
Darren Waller (Ravens) -- Waller fits the profile of former GT wide outs that have gone on to tremendous success in the NFL. His MockDraftable Similarity Scores should have prospective owners salivating (highest comps of Mike Evans, Michael Floyd, and Marquess Colston). He's also turning some heads at camp while first rounder Breshaud Perriman nurses an injury. Waller gives Flacco and Trestman a HUGE (6'6" 238lbs), fast (4.46), leaper of a WR (37" vert, 125" broad) that generally fits the mold of guys Trestman has used on the perimeter in the past.
TIGHT ENDS:
Derek Carrier (Redskins) -- In the wake of Niles Paul's season-ending injury and Logan Paulsen's foot injury, the Redskins depth chart at TE is extremely thin. Jordan Reed is undoubtedly talented, but he's also struggled to stay on the field. Enter Carrier who the Redskins acquired earlier this camp from the 49ers. Carrier isn't going to block many guys (neither is Reed), but he can move and catch as a converted WR, and considering the opportunity, he's one to keep an eye on.
