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RB Alex Collins, SEA (1 Viewer)

Doug B said:
This is a GREAT point. It ain't a reach if you have a turn pick and you know a guy won't come back to you 20+ picks later ... you pull that trigger with confidence.
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Drafting at 1.01 in one of my leagues this year I mentally prepared myself for that reality. If I wanted a player, 1-2 rounds (12-24 picks) meant nothing since they wouldn’t make it back. 

As long as I get the guy I want for the value I think is right, the concept of reach goes out the window at or near the turn. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
I was confused, thought I'd ask. 

I'm not sure I'd want bell either. I hold pick 4 in a keeper redraft and I'm hoping for DJ or Elliot. 
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Yeah -it was a good catch. I’m on my1st cup of coffee. ;)  

but even last week in my draft, Bell went 3. I took Gurley, 1.02 took Zeke, 3 got Bell. Bell owner took McKinnon on the way back. Ouch. 

 
I'm keeping Collins for a very late pick and planning on making him my rb3/flex depending on how the draft falls. 

assuming I get DJ #4 and then another RB round 2 I think I'd have a solid RB group. If a WR falls to me I feel good about Collins as my RB2 and maybe grabbing someone round 3 at RB (keeping JuJu as well, so I have WR2 coverd)

 
kyoun1e said:
I'm also hoping Collins falls late 4th in two drafts this week, but thinking this is now highly unlikely.

Really like his setup, but finding it a bit of a reach to possibly grab him early in the 3rd with pick 27 overall. Seems too early.
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He went 04.09 as the RB17 off the board on Saturday in my 12 team, PPR, super-flex redraft.

 
Chaka said:
He went 04.09 as the RB17 off the board on Saturday in my 12 team, PPR, super-flex redraft.
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Not certain on this point: does 'super-flex' mean QBs can start in the flex, too? If so, that drives up QB values a lot and pushes down second-tier RB1s/high-end RB2s.

 
Doug B said:
Not certain on this point: does 'super-flex' mean QBs can start in the flex, too? If so, that drives up QB values a lot and pushes down second-tier RB1s/high-end RB2s.
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Super-flex usually means exactly that. The cheat sheets are filled with QBs at 1.01,1.03, etc. 

 
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Doug B said:
Not certain on this point: does 'super-flex' mean QBs can start in the flex, too? If so, that drives up QB values a lot and pushes down second-tier RB1s/high-end RB2s.
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Yup. That is why I also included that he was the 17th RB off the board. It is far more informative than just saying 04.09.

 
Assuming no injury, safe projection is 1200 total yards and 9 tds.  Value rb2 imo.   

Edit:  I am worried about an injury with full season workload.  Dude is not built like hunt.  

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Drafting at 1.01 in one of my leagues this year I mentally prepared myself for that reality. If I wanted a player, 1-2 rounds (12-24 picks) meant nothing since they wouldn’t make it back. 

As long as I get the guy I want for the value I think is right, the concept of reach goes out the window at or near the turn. 
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agree 100%, but a lot of people are a slave to the ADP.  They know it's going to be 50/50 whether a guy makes it back to them who they REALLY want.  Then GO get him a round early or two.

IMO

 
irishidiot said:
agree 100%, but a lot of people are a slave to the ADP.  They know it's going to be 50/50 whether a guy makes it back to them who they REALLY want.  Then GO get him a round early or two.

IMO
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That was me many years ago - I’d wait on a player because it was too early & ADP said they should be there next pick. And every time, someone would reach for them and I would think, “that was way too early. What an idiot”

except they had him & I didn’t. So in fact, I was the idiot. 

Back then I did one massive draft sheet. Now I have 1 sheet for RB, 1 for WR, 1 for TE, 1 for QB, 1 for TE, etc  And every round I look at every single page to make sure I’m not missing a value pick that’s slipped.

and no I’m the dude reaching for players - not foolishly, but realistically. 

 
I went heavy early in my draft on RB's and WR's and Collins ended up as my Flex option on my team behind Gurley(I had the #1 pick) and CMC. I also got M. Thomas and A. Cooper.

 
Got him as my RB2 in a 12 team PPR. Wasn't jazzed but he was the best of what was left.

Backed him up with Tarik Cohen and Sony Michel. Hopefully he scores some touchdowns.

 
Got him at 3.39 out of the 11 hole in a 14 team PPR.  RB2 behind Gordon.  Super stoked as I’m all in and grabbing as many shares of him I can get in the late 3rd early 4th.  

 
I took him at 2:11 (25th overall) in a 14-team, start 2RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex league, non PPR. In fact I went RB,RB,TE (Kelce), RB when Crowell was still there at 53rd overall, because previous experience of that league has taught me you can win without anything approaching a top WR but you are going to need an awful lot of luck if you don't draft 2/3 reasonable RBs early.

 
Soulfly3 said:
do you guys play in PPV league (point per value)

have been praying for years now this whole "Value" thing would die off.

you take the guy you want, when you want him, if you're convinced he wont make it back. THAT is the real value.
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But the reason you want the guy is because you think he's value, no?

You try to assess what the drop off is between, say, the running back you like now and the running back you think will still be there at your next pick. You then compare with the corresponding drop-off between WRs/QBs/TEs (depending on your need at the time too) and make your pick accordingly.

 
Soulfly3 said:
do you guys play in PPV league (point per value)

have been praying for years now this whole "Value" thing would die off.

you take the guy you want, when you want him, if you're convinced he wont make it back. THAT is the real value.
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Or you auction draft which is infinitely better. 

 
Lord Lucan said:
But the reason you want the guy is because you think he's value, no?

You try to assess what the drop off is between, say, the running back you like now and the running back you think will still be there at your next pick. You then compare with the corresponding drop-off between WRs/QBs/TEs (depending on your need at the time too) and make your pick accordingly.
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I think you actually want to identify the guy who will score the most points in your lineup. Then you pick that guy.

 
Soulfly3 said:
If I think Collins is finishing top 10, then I draft him as early as possible to land him. Landing him is the value. 

Missing out cuz u wanted the value of nailing him in the 4th, means you miss out on a "top 10 rb" because of some ridiculous philosophy
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Do you offer the car dealer more than they ask?

 
Soulfly3 said:
If I think Collins is finishing top 10, then I draft him as early as possible to land him. Landing him is the value. 

Missing out cuz u wanted the value of nailing him in the 4th, means you miss out on a "top 10 rb" because of some ridiculous philosophy
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So he's your first pick of the draft?

 
Soulfly3 said:
Im not waiting one extra round on a guy i really want, to score "value"

I like a team of guys I want. Not guys I setttled on
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Semantics.

You're just paying more for a car than you need. You're just giving up a player in the 3rd in favor of one in the 4th, only because your too much of a chicken to take a chance.

 
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cloppbeast said:
Do you offer the car dealer more than they ask?
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If that's the comp, I guess the question becomes do you like that vehicle better than any other vehicle available at said price? Or do you buy what is in your estimation a lesser vehicle because the blue book tells you to?

 
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cloppbeast said:
Semantics.

You're just paying more for a car than you need. You're just giving up a player in the 3rd in favor of one in the 4th, only because your too much of a chicken to take a chance.
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By your logic, NFL teams should wait till the 2nd round of the draft & hope their 1st round guy falls then instead of draft the player they want..

 
NeverEnough said:
By your logic, NFL teams should wait till the 2nd round of the draft & hope their 1st round guy falls then instead of draft the player they want..
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Soulfly3 said:
Like I said. 

A team of players I want to own, not a team of players I settled on. 
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cloppbeast said:
Semantics.

You're just paying more for a car than you need. You're just giving up a player in the 3rd in favor of one in the 4th, only because your too much of a chicken to take a chance.
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The concept is that you should only pay (outbid) slightly more than you feel competitors are willing to pay.

You only have a finite number of resources (draft picks / auction dollars) to purchase players with and if you spend them unwisely you end up with only a few of things you want instead of a larger number of things you like.

You can't always go into a draft and stick solely with 'Value' otherwise you may end up with a team full of one position, for example Wide Receivers, if there's a number of run's on RB's and you're unable to identify that trend.

On the other hand if you're drafting 'your guys' and they don't live up to the correct draft pick or auction dollar value, then you'll end up with a losing team.

You need to be able to implement both strategies to some respect to identify and draft the players you think will over-perform based on their draft position, which often overlaps with the 'value' approach as well.

 
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2nd round + 3rd round, you could get Hill + Collins. If you like Collins a lot, there's a marginal difference between them anyway. Plus there's a reasonable chance Collins is still there in the 3rd.

Or if you're too chicken to take a chance on losing your man-crush, you get Collins + Fitzgerald.

Hill + Collins vs. Collins + Fitzgerald.

 
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