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i own him in my dynasty league but am having a hard time believing the hype. Love his situation but can't shake that he's never been that good so far in his career.
Thomas Jones.
Yeah, I think he will be a consistent rb2 for a couple years. Could pull a Lamar Miller and not be able to hold up to a bell cow role. Offense may not be as good as expected. That’s the low end. I traded the 1.10 for him before the draft, and if you miss out on the rookie rbs and can swing it he’d be the guy I target.
Agree that solid RB2 should be the expectation right now...overall, I think the reason to be high on him is an easy one...Kyle Shanahan is committing to him...it is as simple as that...Shanahan is a quality offensive Coach and the history of his RBs is a good one...right now McKinnon is being given the opportunity to cash in on being the main back in an ascending Shanahan offense...IMO that should be the main focus of those who are figuring out his value...there are still questions about just how high his upside is because his tenure with Minny had its ups and downs but right now I see a talented, multi-dimensional RB without too much competition playing for a Coach who is giving him the keys to the car for 2018 with the hope he pounces on it...the $ they committed to him (see below) shows that while they want him to succeed and did throw real $ at him like some posters here they do need to see it to actually believe it...I am onboard with him but I think it is imperative that you don't over-estimate his value and make sure you have a Plan B/solid #3 RB should he turn out to be just OK...that being said if this clicks you could very well end up with a top 10 RB as your #2 and that is always a path to fantasy success...
Not only has Kyle had a good history with rbs, og shanny and kubiak both produced great rbs out of thin air.
I'm not sure. I haven't tried to project for him or SF yet.
This seems reasonable, a little conservative even for the rushing attempts. The yards per reception in line with what he produced last season and 2015 although his career ypr is only 6.9 so I might be more conservative with that number. 60 receptions at 6.9 would be 414 yards. He had 51 receptions last season, so I wonder if 60 might be a bit high, but it seems reasonable to expect if he is the primary RB for SF I suppose.
Maybe so. Like I said I feel conflicted. I do think he can be very good, but I have also seen him get shut down at times, including last season. So a 3rd round pick for redraft seems a bit high to me. Would feel more comfortable with drafting him in the 4th round, but if most think he will do this well, then he will be gone before I would be willing to take him.
I think when deciding whether to go 3 or 4 with him a lot will depend on who you take in the first 2 rounds...his value will differ based on what you did there, what position you took and what is left...if there is an RB run early his value could go up quickly...
The same. Murray doesnt pull away from what they already have in SF enough, it would have to be a bigger/better option.
I don’t think anyone is thinking 3 down workhorse, I think most are hoping for a freeman clone. Decent total yds, 4-5 rec a game, and 8 total tds. Majority of the work in an up and coming offense
yep. SF paid him to be the main guy. Whether he can deliver is a different story but he'll definitely get the opportunity to seize a big role.
He was RB #10 weeks 5-16 on a team who demonstrated they did not want to press using him much in positive game script. I’m not sure how the people in this thread can expect less than that on a team that will want to use him in positive game script.
Well if people are hoping that McKinnon will be used like Freeman to me that is pretty much a workhorse. Yes Coleman had some carries as a COP but Freeman had 265 rushing attempts in 15 games 2015 and 97 targets which is 17.7 rushing attempts and 6.5 targets on a per game basis. Coleman did miss 4 games that year and the distribution changed in 2016 with him healthy. where Freeman had 227 rushing attempts 65 targets in 16 game or 14 rushing attempts and 4 targets on a per game basis.
It's possible that this coaching staff in SF either a) has a different view of what they want in a RB, or b) is simply a better offensive coaching staff.
This is where I am. If SF was smart, they aren't going to run McKinnon into the ground.
Bought him for 1.10 just before the nfl draft, but in another League couldn’t get it done for 1.08. I’m not sure I take him over the top rookie rbs though, I’ll take the chance with the extra years from the rookie.
I agree they need to keep him under 250 ouches. Those numbers would make him a RB1 in PPR. I’d say this is closer to his upside but not out of the realm of possibility.
Freeman had 20 touches a game over two years under Shanahan. 16 rushes, 4 receptions and 102 yards per.
When someone talks about 3 down workhorse I think 300 carries with no one else getting much work at all. Coleman still got probably 10 touches a game or so (without looking, I could be dead wrong). Semantics aside, back end rb1 is where I see his ceiling, but I’d be surprised if he were outside the top 25 (rb2) as his floor. I don’t think he will suddenly get Arian foster type workload. I feel it’s a safe, predictable match between player and scheme.
I wouldnt give any first rounder up for him...thats just me thoughIHEARTFF said:
Shanahan recently said he just hasnt been a "practice player" at this point in his career. And he is still a tremendous "game day player".
How’s he going to gain traction in the offseason when he’s only a game day player? Though I didn’t think he played any games last year.
Those are Shanahans words that Williams is a gameday player. He didn't specify, whether college games, preseason or even scrimmage -- though its probably all of them.
He probably looked good in pre-season. Kind of strange to call him a gameday player when he hasn't played. He must really suck in practice.
The team has significant "outs" after year-1 and year-2. That's why they had to give up the 12 million in guarantees.
RB are not making crap in the NFL right now. They are all underpaid. That is the only reason why McKinnons contract seems high relative to what other RB are making because RB salaries have stagnated compared to all other positions in the league.
It's still surprising to me. When you combine McKinnon's contract with his talent, it doesn't add up, IMO (even though you laid out why it might not be a bad as it looks).
I agree he shouldn't be in the top 10 highest RB salaries right now. I do not think he has earned that, but it is what it is.
I also think it represented a *perfect short-term fix for the 49ers (at the least) and allowed them to draft and focus elsewhere. So paying the extra lets-not-screw-around-with-half-efforts money was kind of the easy bullet to bite. Now they have a couple years with a proven guy (at age 25) to go along with youngsters in Breida and WIlliams.
McKinnon has become very good at pass protection. In my view he was even better than Murray is pass pro in 2017 and Murray was one of the best RB at that in 2016. Not saying Murray is bad at that either, just that I think McKinnon was a bit better.
