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RB Kyren Williams, LAR (10 Viewers)

Not to mention that picks also don’t get injured or race in cars at 180mph or smash Dom bottles over peoples heads in nightclubs
Yes there are a lot of different angles to this.

When you consider that a RB who actually scores enough points to be useful for a fantasy season, the average number of seasons that they are is two. Its just very high turnover at the position and even the best ones cannot stay at this level for very long.

The majority of RB are not even useful for a full season, but only a few games of a season, if at all. See Cam Akers for example. A few games but never sustaining that production for a full season yet. Yes he still could, his career is not over yet, but I have seen enough that I think its unlikely he ever does provide a season of productive games for the remainder of his career. He is being replaced by Williams now.

As far as Williams, who knows how long or if he might be worth starting? Could be a few games or maybe longer than that, but the odds are against this. Best case scenario he becomes like Austin Eckler, which would be very valuable and certainly worth a 1st round pick if he does, thats just very unlikely.

I have come to the conclushion that if a RB can provide 9 or more start worthy games that is worth a 1st round pick. Others might disagree with this, but just being realistic about the high amount of turnover at the position, teams are always having to find new blood. Even high level RB like Todd Gurley just do not last that long playing at such a high level.

Players at other positions like WR or QB? Thats different. You can count on such players maintaining their value longer than a RB although that is no sure thing either. At least its safer, and you have better odds to get say 5 years of that player maintaining their value compared to 2 years from the RB position.

So this is the decision a dynasty manager has to make every time a RB like Williams comes along, is how long do you think they will be able to maintain their performance and what is that worth to you based on how your current team is constructed?

For a strong team built on a long term foundation of highly valuable WRs and QBs even one year of good RB production could push that team to the top, and I think that is worth a 1st round pick to acquire such a player for that purpose, even if that productivity does not last very long.

For a team that does not have a strong foundation like this I think you sell Williams for the best price you can get and try to convert the asset into a WR or something that can build the long term foundation of your team.

Yes there is always the chance that Williams becomes a long term multi season valuable asset. But that chance is slim, and from a process based perspective you want to be the seller here not the buyer.
Slim chances are playing out on this kid. I think you would agree now.

Real deal RB. Just productive and a three down back in a league starving for them.
He has been very good and trading him earlier would have been something would regret now.

That said I still believe doing that to be correct from a process based perspective unless you truly thought he would be a multi season starter in FF.

Maybe he will be, but Zac Stacy and many other RB have been quality starters for a chunk of games but then replaced the following season.

As of right now I actually like Williams to be the Rams starting RB in 2024 and I have more confidence in that than I did with Zac Stacy at that time even though I was a huge fan of Stacy and certainly think he was worth having in the series of games he was relevant before being replaced by Todd Gurley.

The NFL has changed a lot since then and RBs who perform well seem less likely to be replaced by high draft picks after they do. Teams are more interested in getting these cheaper investments at RB to pay off for them as long as they can and use their draft assets on other positions.

McVey is very unlike Jeff Fisher.

Good for Williams I hope he can keep performing well and stays healthy. I think McVey has used Williams too much and has been a bit reckless about keeping Williams fresh. I think that management may have contributed to Williams being injured and missing some games earlier this year.

This recklessness with Williams workload is part of what makes him so valuable as well though.
Bottom line, Zac Stacy wasn’t very good.
That depends on one's attitude.

Zac Stacy is the definition of baseline.
Baseline bad
He provided 3/4th of a season of top 12 RB performance before being replaced by Gurley which was certainly worth rostering and starting while he did.

Many many RB never do this much in their careers.
 
Anyone low balling Williams owners?
I’m a Kyren owner and he’s my rb3(or 4 depending on how you feel about Rachaad White) and I can tell you I’m not really panicking about Corum, but maybe I’m in the minority. They were always going to add competition because they simply couldn’t take him off the field last year because it was such a drop off when he was off the field.
 
The Coachspeak Index
#Rams GM Les Snead intimates that the Blake Corum pick is “so we don’t just totally run down Kyren [Williams]”

This screams to me that Kyren will still see a healthy workload

LA doesn’t want to miss a beat when he needs some snaps off or misses games, so they drafted a similar RB in Corum to recreate Kyren Williams in the aggregate 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 Kyren Williams

I’m currently expecting something close to a 75/25 or 70/30 split, with Corum possibly siphoning some of the goal line work

If Kyren misses time, Corum becomes an instant fantasy RB1 during that stretch
 
I'm telling you, stay away. He was a 5th rounder for a reason. Then he got banged up. Now dealing with a foot injury. He has a history of foot injuries.

Now the Rams drafted a very capable RB in round 3 and people still want to take Kyren in with the top 5 RB's?? No way.
 
I think they'd probably prefer to have him around 16-18 touches per game rather than ~22.
He was super efficient on the ground, and I would expect that to remain with a lighter load.

For fantasy purposes: A lot of his top end value came from the workload and the 1.25 TD's/game. I think he's a good NFL back, but I don't think he's a TD per game good. I would think we almost surely see some TD regression this year.

That may be baked into the cost. He's going as RB7ish a lot of places.
 
I think they'd probably prefer to have him around 16-18 touches per game rather than ~22.
He was super efficient on the ground, and I would expect that to remain with a lighter load.

For fantasy purposes: A lot of his top end value came from the workload and the 1.25 TD's/game. I think he's a good NFL back, but I don't think he's a TD per game good. I would think we almost surely see some TD regression this year.

That may be baked into the cost. He's going as RB7ish a lot of places.
Agree, I think his weekly role is likely to be smaller (it was as big as anyone aside from CMC) but I also think his passing game work could if not increase, be more efficient. My current projection is:

220 carries
1000 yards
4.5 YPC
8 rush TDs

40 catches
300 yards
7.5 YPR
2 TD catches

I think RB7 is pretty fair.
 
I think they'd probably prefer to have him around 16-18 touches per game rather than ~22.
He was super efficient on the ground, and I would expect that to remain with a lighter load.

For fantasy purposes: A lot of his top end value came from the workload and the 1.25 TD's/game. I think he's a good NFL back, but I don't think he's a TD per game good. I would think we almost surely see some TD regression this year.

That may be baked into the cost. He's going as RB7ish a lot of places.
Agree, I think his weekly role is likely to be smaller (it was as big as anyone aside from CMC) but I also think his passing game work could if not increase, be more efficient. My current projection is:

220 carries
1000 yards
4.5 YPC
8 rush TDs

40 catches
300 yards
7.5 YPR
2 TD catches

I think RB7 is pretty fair.
I don't think 7 is egregious or unfair.

I agree with him having around the numbers you posted. Last year, that puts him around RB 10-12.

#10. Gibbs had 1261 total yards, 51 Receptions, 11 TD
#11. James Cook had 1567/44 receptions/6
#12. Saquon had 1242/41/10.

And while last year certainly isn't a perfect barometer, it's a starting point. I wonder if he isn't finishing more in that low end RB1 range.
 
Kyren Williams is BY FAR the riskiest player to draft right now.

FFPC non-BB league tourney ADP is 2.09 right now.

Kyren is NOT a pedigreed back, and was drafted in round five, pick 164, in 2022.

His athleticism is actually quite poor, you don't want to see the dreaded pucker look on MockDraftable.com, but here it is Kyren Williams.

Injury history:

Injury History
DateLeagueInjury
Sep 8, 2022NFLPedal Ankle (high) Sprain Grade 3
Oct 15, 2023NFLPedal Ankle (high) Sprain Grade 3
Jan 14, 2024NFLHand Metacarpal Fracture
Oct 1, 2023NFLInguinal Hip Strain

The team believed in him so much that they selected Blake Corum in the 3rd round, with pick 83 overall, 81 picks higher than they selected Williams.

Corum outperformed Williams in nearly every combine metric:

Blake Corum MockDraftable.com

And then the question gets asked:

Rams Rumors: Is LA Prepping Blake Corum to Replace Kyren Williams?​


"One of the things that jumped off is there's a lot of traits that reminded me of Kyren Williams," McVay said. "Obviously I love Kyren and he's been so important and just the human being, but then also when you just look at the way he works at it, the production and the things that he was able to bring to our offense last year and even really some of the things that he worked through his rookie year -- I think there's a lot of similarities."

My Take:

Anyone can disregard some or part of the argument above, but unless you ignore ALL OF IT, drafting Kyren Williams at pick 2.09 right now vs. any other option at that point in the draft is a terrible risk/reward decision.
 
Kyren Williams is BY FAR the riskiest player to draft right now.

FFPC non-BB league tourney ADP is 2.09 right now.

Kyren is NOT a pedigreed back, and was drafted in round five, pick 164, in 2022.

His athleticism is actually quite poor, you don't want to see the dreaded pucker look on MockDraftable.com, but here it is Kyren Williams.

Injury history:

Injury History
DateLeagueInjury
Sep 8, 2022NFLPedal Ankle (high) Sprain Grade 3
Oct 15, 2023NFLPedal Ankle (high) Sprain Grade 3
Jan 14, 2024NFLHand Metacarpal Fracture
Oct 1, 2023NFLInguinal Hip Strain

The team believed in him so much that they selected Blake Corum in the 3rd round, with pick 83 overall, 81 picks higher than they selected Williams.

Corum outperformed Williams in nearly every combine metric:

Blake Corum MockDraftable.com

And then the question gets asked:

Rams Rumors: Is LA Prepping Blake Corum to Replace Kyren Williams?​


"One of the things that jumped off is there's a lot of traits that reminded me of Kyren Williams," McVay said. "Obviously I love Kyren and he's been so important and just the human being, but then also when you just look at the way he works at it, the production and the things that he was able to bring to our offense last year and even really some of the things that he worked through his rookie year -- I think there's a lot of similarities."

My Take:

Anyone can disregard some or part of the argument above, but unless you ignore ALL OF IT, drafting Kyren Williams at pick 2.09 right now vs. any other option at that point in the draft is a terrible risk/reward decision.
Could not agree more. Kyren is not going to produce anywhere near his draft value.
 
Kyren Williams is BY FAR the riskiest player to draft right now.

FFPC non-BB league tourney ADP is 2.09 right now.

Kyren is NOT a pedigreed back, and was drafted in round five, pick 164, in 2022.

His athleticism is actually quite poor, you don't want to see the dreaded pucker look on MockDraftable.com, but here it is Kyren Williams.

Injury history:

Injury History
DateLeagueInjury
Sep 8, 2022NFLPedal Ankle (high) Sprain Grade 3
Oct 15, 2023NFLPedal Ankle (high) Sprain Grade 3
Jan 14, 2024NFLHand Metacarpal Fracture
Oct 1, 2023NFLInguinal Hip Strain

The team believed in him so much that they selected Blake Corum in the 3rd round, with pick 83 overall, 81 picks higher than they selected Williams.

Corum outperformed Williams in nearly every combine metric:

Blake Corum MockDraftable.com

And then the question gets asked:

Rams Rumors: Is LA Prepping Blake Corum to Replace Kyren Williams?​


"One of the things that jumped off is there's a lot of traits that reminded me of Kyren Williams," McVay said. "Obviously I love Kyren and he's been so important and just the human being, but then also when you just look at the way he works at it, the production and the things that he was able to bring to our offense last year and even really some of the things that he worked through his rookie year -- I think there's a lot of similarities."

My Take:

Anyone can disregard some or part of the argument above, but unless you ignore ALL OF IT, drafting Kyren Williams at pick 2.09 right now vs. any other option at that point in the draft is a terrible risk/reward decision.
Could not agree more. Kyren is not going to produce anywhere near his draft value.
I agree. hes overvalued based on his current ADP.

but I do think the Rams will play him until he gets hurt or until his production slips.

Corum is the heir apparent, but he has work to do to round out his game. apparently he needs work pass pro and given the health of the QB, that could keep him on the bench longer than Corum dynasty owners would like. I think he could tighten up on some of his route running as well. an area where Kyren Williams is very good.. I could see Corum taking short yardage and goal line carries. and that will hurt Williams TD production some. and he will likely take a few carries to give Williams a breather as I think they actually overplayed him due to a lack of depth at the position last year.
 

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