RB Match Ups Week 1 (1 Viewer)

[Sinrman]

Not a bad analysis overall. Don't agree with it all, but not bad at all...

 

[Skinsfansince72]

Thanks for the analysis. Good stuff.

One minor quibble: Gibbs did not say Portis was doubtful.

Minnesota at Washington

Clinton Portis/Ladell Betts/TJ Duckett: Duckett is still learning the offense, I expect him to touch the ball very little in the 1st week. If Portis cannot play than I think Betts might actually be a decent play this weekend. You will need to watch the injury reports but Gibbs has said Portis is doubtful for week 1.

Nope. Gibbs has never said Portis was doubtful. In fact, he's said nothing that would lead anybody to believe that Portis was doubtful. He DID say that Portis had a couple of pretty good workouts and that it would be up to Portis to decide if he can go.

 

[Da Flyin Lion]

Looks like a bad week to have Ronnie Brown, Willy Parker and Chester Taylor as your 2 starting RBs and flex spot. I should know by Thursday night if I won or lost week 1.

 

[nickopher]

So, if you guys had to start one of these two to go along with Alexander, who would it be? C. Taylor or D. McAllister?

Taylor is playing against the Redskins, who have a formidable defense.

McAllister is sharing with Bush against a suspect Defense.

I dunno. Help!!!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

So, if you guys had to start one of these two to go along with Alexander, who would it be? C. Taylor or D. McAllister? Taylor is playing against the Redskins, who have a formidable defense.McAllister is sharing with Bush against a suspect Defense.I dunno. Help!!!

I think Deuce is a better play this week...I want to see Chester actually play a week in real games as the starter after he signed this contract.

 

[radballs]

Great effort MOP. Much appreciated.

 

[Bad_Mo]

I'm struggling with a Chester Taylor start v. Corey Dillon start. The Dillon start looks great-backfield to himself, relying on the run game until the Wr's get sorted out, etc. I am in a PPR league though, so Taylor does make it a hard decision. Anyone have any thoughts on Taylors receiving production this week if they can't run it on Wash. I see 5 catches easy.

That's easy. Dillon all the way.BTW....nice job Ministry.

 

[TheWick]

I didn't get to read through it all...but anyone have any thoughts on my lineup for this week...only 2 RB spots and I have

Gore

Caddilac

Foster

Lundy

Maroney

Leaning towards Foster and Gore...let me know what you think

thanks

 

[traderkirk]

Cincinnati at Kansas City

Rudi Johnson: This is not as good a match up as some will think. KC was actually very good at keeping the rush in check at home last season…they gave up 200+ yds on the ground to both Denver and NYGiants but those games were on the road. Rudi is an impressive runner and the game Cinci played in week 17 last season where they lost 37-3…you have to throw that out the window. Rudi will cross the goal line but he might only rack up somewhere in the 50-75 yard range as I think this game will be settled thru the air.

How much of this "KC was actually very good at keeping the ruch in check at home" was a function of KC performing better offensively at home and forcing teams to pass more? Do they have a significant split in yards per rush at home vs. the road or were you just looking at aggregate number (i.e. total yards allowed)

 

[mbuehner]

I wouldn’t be too excited about Lewis lining up this week.

Get used to this sentiment.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

"I expect Washington to play hard on defense and shut down the running game…I don’t like Taylor"

I would not bash Taylor starting against the Skins just yet. If Washinton's D plays like they have in pre-season, he could have a big day!! The third game where the starters are suppose to play for three qaurters, the Pats piled up 41 points!! I actually think he could be descent this year running behind the best O-line in football.

Good Post

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I didn't get to read through it all...but anyone have any thoughts on my lineup for this week...only 2 RB spots and I haveGoreCaddilacFosterLundyMaroneyLeaning towards Foster and Gore...let me know what you thinkthanks

I think you should try and put Cadillac in the line up. Foster is a must . Lundy and Gore you might want to watch for a week. If you feel strongly about Gore than play him.

 

[einstein2u]

Looks like a bad week to have Ronnie Brown, Willy Parker and Chester Taylor as your 2 starting RBs and flex spot. I should know by Thursday night if I won or lost week 1.

so how do you think will do better....ronnie or fwp?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Cincinnati at Kansas City

Rudi Johnson: This is not as good a match up as some will think. KC was actually very good at keeping the rush in check at home last season…they gave up 200+ yds on the ground to both Denver and NYGiants but those games were on the road. Rudi is an impressive runner and the game Cinci played in week 17 last season where they lost 37-3…you have to throw that out the window. Rudi will cross the goal line but he might only rack up somewhere in the 50-75 yard range as I think this game will be settled thru the air.

How much of this "KC was actually very good at keeping the ruch in check at home" was a function of KC performing better offensively at home and forcing teams to pass more? Do they have a significant split in yards per rush at home vs. the road or were you just looking at aggregate number (i.e. total yards allowed)

Excellent questions. They gave up an avg of 120 on the road...they had a couple of really bad games against Denver and the NYG that skew that number quite a bit. On the road they held down opponents rush attack to under 100 yd rushing 5 out of the 8 games and those were against Oak, Miami, SD, Buff and Houston.At home they avg 76 yds a game on the ground. They didn't really get punked at home. I believe the LB Johnson they picked up in the draft last season was a real big pick up for them and helped turn them around in the run game.

Now KC has added Ty Law to go with Patrick Surtain...this defense might be a lot better but I am sure they will still give up their share of yards. herm is pretty good at coaching defense though.

 

[Welshie]

Just to correct one of the things in his analysis, Derrick Blaylock has been named the starter for the Jets opening Week 1, according to Rotoworld.

Although, that is not corroborated by the team's official depth chart off their website, because they haven't released one yet.

If you're looking for sleepers to have good games this week, I'd say:

Droughns vs. NO

McAllister vs. Cle

Blaylock vs. Ten

Lundy vs. Phi

And of course, who ever guesses right on the Denver situation. If I'm a Mike Bell owner, I'd take a shot at starting him as FLEX or 3rd RB this week, just because I would guess he'll be the starter based on preseason performance. If I'm a Tatum Bell or Cedric Cobbs owner, I play the wait and see game and hope my guy establishes himself as the guy who'll get the lionshare of the carries.

 

[Welshie]

Oh, and one last thing on the sleepers...

If you're REALLY desperate for a starter for whatever reason, Buckhalter might not be a bad look for this week. Andy will use him a lot this season as long as he's healthy. The coaching staff has always been really high on him.

At any rate, he's a good bet to vulture at least one TD this week. He's definitely their go to guy on the goalline, and the Eagles should light up the Texans.

In fact, he could post some nice yardage if the game gets out of hand, because they won't risk Westbrook in the run out the clock situation.

 

[ALF]

Nice post MOP. Got me to look in much greater detail who I was going to start at RB.

I actually changed my mind on one of my starters.

My options are R. Brown, J.Jones, F Gore and Barlow.

I'll just post on the match ups that I have looked at closely.

R.Brown:

I think that the fact that Rothlisberger being out changes the complexion of the game. Miami concentrates on stopping the running game and dares the Steelers to beat them through the pass. So not seeing a huge day for FWP. On the flip side I see Miami having a pretty balanced offence trying to keep the Pitt Def on the field to tire them out in the hope that they break down in the 4th qtr. So this means short passes and feeding the rock to R. Brown. I don't think he'll have an exceptional day since the Pitts Def was ranked 3rd last year and I see no reason for a drop off in that area but 60 to 80 yds and a TD is feasible.

J.Jones:

I am not overly worried about the Jacksonville def. They finished middle of the pack in rush D last year being good but not overwhelming. The only slight concern would be losing touches to M. Barber. I also think the Dallas passing game will be a positive in helping to open the running lanes for the running game. I think that J.Jones will have 18 to 21 carries and 80 to 100 yds plus TD.

F. Gore:

At first glance would be a good start but once you look deeper there is great uncertainty. The Cardinals weren't actually that bad against the run last year finishing 10th. Also looking at last years 2 encounters between the teams raises more concerns. The San Francisco offence only generated 160 total yds and 53 yds rushing in the first encounter and 236 total yds, A. Smith also threw 3 int, and 51 yds rushing in the second game. It all comes down to A.Smith. If I am the Cardinals D coordinator I am putting the burden on him to beat us. So weather F. Gore is worth a start hinges on weather A. Smith is a serviceable QB. I for one will wait until I see evidence of this and will not be starting Gore this week. I forecast 30 to 50 yds and 0 TDs.

Barlow:

As you noted no one knows who'll have the majority of the carries It’s a shame since this is a pretty good match up for whomever gets the majority of the carries for the Jets. The titans not having a particularly solid run Def last year.

So in my case I'll start both R.Brown and J.Jones if I knew for a fact that Barlow was going to get the majority of the carries with the Jets I would be starting him over R. Brown.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Thanks for the analysis. Good stuff.

One minor quibble: Gibbs did not say Portis was doubtful.

Minnesota at Washington

Clinton Portis/Ladell Betts/TJ Duckett: Duckett is still learning the offense, I expect him to touch the ball very little in the 1st week. If Portis cannot play than I think Betts might actually be a decent play this weekend. You will need to watch the injury reports but Gibbs has said Portis is doubtful for week 1.

paraphrase. I heard it from the horses mouth, he'll ask Clinton and if Clinton wants to go, he'll go. When has CP been anything but a warrior. I suspect this is media chess.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Nice post MOP. Got me to look in much greater detail who I was going to start at RB. I actually changed my mind on one of my starters.My options are R. Brown, J.Jones, F Gore and Barlow.I'll just post on the match ups that I have looked at closely.R.Brown:I think that the fact that Rothlisberger being out changes the complexion of the game. Miami concentrates on stopping the running game and dares the Steelers to beat them through the pass. So not seeing a huge day for FWP. On the flip side I see Miami having a pretty balanced offence trying to keep the Pitt Def on the field to tire them out in the hope that they break down in the 4th qtr. So this means short passes and feeding the rock to R. Brown. I don't think he'll have an exceptional day since the Pitts Def was ranked 3rd last year and I see no reason for a drop off in that area but 60 to 80 yds and a TD is feasible. J.Jones: I am not overly worried about the Jacksonville def. They finished middle of the pack in rush D last year being good but not overwhelming. The only slight concern would be losing touches to M. Barber. I also think the Dallas passing game will be a positive in helping to open the running lanes for the running game. I think that J.Jones will have 18 to 21 carries and 80 to 100 yds plus TD.F. Gore: At first glance would be a good start but once you look deeper there is great uncertainty. The Cardinals weren't actually that bad against the run last year finishing 10th. Also looking at last years 2 encounters between the teams raises more concerns. The San Francisco offence only generated 160 total yds and 53 yds rushing in the first encounter and 236 total yds, A. Smith also threw 3 int, and 51 yds rushing in the second game. It all comes down to A.Smith. If I am the Cardinals D coordinator I am putting the burden on him to beat us. So weather F. Gore is worth a start hinges on weather A. Smith is a serviceable QB. I for one will wait until I see evidence of this and will not be starting Gore this week. I forecast 30 to 50 yds and 0 TDs.Barlow:As you noted no one knows who'll have the majority of the carries It’s a shame since this is a pretty good match up for whomever gets the majority of the carries for the Jets. The titans not having a particularly solid run Def last year. So in my case I'll start both R.Brown and J.Jones if I knew for a fact that Barlow was going to get the majority of the carries with the Jets I would be starting him over R. Brown.

What a great post. I wanted to highlight this one for a few reasons.1. If you are having trouble deciding who to start and Wannabee is not patrolling the ACF for some reason, by all means please come on in and give us what you got. But please take the time as ALF has done to give us some details on what you are thinking about as you head into the games.Try to stay away from...I have x, y, and z...pick 2 for me. This is not gonna get you the results your looking for. Even if you are afraid you might come across like an idiot... I assure you from the many many many dumb things in hindsight I have posted in here, there is no way you can get ridiculed that badly, so just a quick thought will work too.2. Just look at how ALF approached this post. He gave his stable of backs, broke down the games, and then made a decision on what he is going to do. He's gonna get a lot mroe feedback on his opinions with that kind of a post.Alf, I would definitely start Ronnie Brown, JJ as well in week 1...I do think Gore will get a cheap TD at some point. I think Arizona is going to roll SF on Sunday however I expect Norv Turner to just keep plugging along with his offense making it better for later in the season. SF has to know they are rebuilding on defense and are going to give up 30+ points a week. You can't just make Alex SMith throw the ball 40 times a game so i think even when they are behind they are going to run the football to stabalize things.

 

[ShadowMaster]

Imagine how hard it would be to edit this stuff and be accurate if you were actually on staff.

Cringe, truth be told MRob will steal carries from Gore as the season moves along...I expect him to slide into the RB2 role in San Fran and see the ball. Also the draft list in a major publication I was working with had him listed as a RB from Penn St several times...then when I flipped thru Phil Steele's I simply saw the rushing yds...i wasn't look for him under the QB slot.I said good catch, I deleted most of it although it still is fine minus the RB/QB correction...what more do you want? If I do a search under your name will I find some thread you started too? This thread seems to get a pretty positive feedback and as long as that happens I'm gonna keep posting.

I like Gore this week and all year long. Norv knows RBs and he let them ship Barlow away. Why? Because Gore is a f'in STUD.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

I like to start the year of good but in my money league I have Portis out and C. Taylor facing a tough D in Washington. That is why I was tempted to grab Lundy for B. Jacobs (have Tiki).

I guess I have to go with Tiki and C. Taylor and hope for the best.

Great post by the way.

This will be your first mistake of the season imo.Everything I have read says West is good to go.. I am not sure the logic of starting someone like C Taylor who has looked horrible all pre season vs a good run D instead of BW who is very rested agianst a poor run D?

I guess everone is entitled to thier opinion.

 

[J-Money]

then when I flipped thru Phil Steele's I simply saw the rushing yds...

lol, a guy in my $$$ league yesterday complained about only 1 magazine being available at walmart for him to pick up for the draft...everyone made fun of his phil collins, errrr...phil steeles mag until about 4 people had to borrow his mag since they didn't have Def or IDP's in theirs. I don't ever buy magazines so i've never heard of phil steele, so i know for next year, if i get bored waiting for the season is it a decent read?

 

[Dancing Bear]

Two comments [both pertaining to KC].

A) A lot of the reason that KC's Defense against the run was so good last year was because of the fact that teams knew they could pass on them, and they did so with ease. They were in the bottom 3rd of all NFL teams on nearly every passing statistic.

B) Larry Johnson has been an animal, and to simply write him off because of the line changes is not reasonable to me.

In the 24 games that he has touched the ball he has amassed the following:

456 Rushes

2331 Rushing Yards

5.1 Yards per Rush

29 Rushing TD's

55 Receptions

621 Receiving Yards

11.3 Yards per Catch

3 Receiving TD's

19.3 Fantasy Points per game

That's over 5 Yards per Rush, over 11 Yards per Reception, well over 100 all-purpose yards and 1.5 TD's per game!

If you look at only the 14 games that he has started, then he has amassed the following:

360 Rushes

1849 Rushing Yards

5.1 Yards per Rush

24 Rushing TD's

44 Receptions

509 Receiving Yards

11.6 Yards per Catch

3 Receiving TD's

27.3 Fantasy Points per game

He averages 168 all-purpose yards per game and 1.93 TD's per game.

If the man's performance drops by 30% it is still over 19 ppg.

Last year against Cincinnati he had over 200 yards rushing and 3 TD's [39 fantasy points] ...

Gotta go with the STUD.

 

[Dancing Bear]

A few other things.

In his 14 starts he has never been held under 100 all-purpose yards.

He has been held scoreless once and scored 1 TD only once. Each of the other 12 games were multiple TD scoring affairs ...

Go with the STUD!

 

[Gr00vus]

I think Arizona is going to roll SF on Sunday however I expect Norv Turner to just keep plugging along with his offense making it better for later in the season. SF has to know they are rebuilding on defense and are going to give up 30+ points a week. You can't just make Alex SMith throw the ball 40 times a game so i think even when they are behind they are going to run the football to stabalize things.

I was going to say the only thing that stood out from your original post that I strongly disagree with was your optimism for Gore this week, but you've qualified it here. I can't say I agree with what you've deduced from your read on the situation, but at least you've got some reasoning to back it up that isn't crazy. For myself I think Gore will have a tough day against the Cardinals. They were 10th against the run last year as you mentioned and I think with their front 7 back healthy for the first time in a long time they will be even better. I think they'll make stopping the run their first priority and let the 49ers try and beat them with Alex Smith. I'm not high on Gore this week.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

then when I flipped thru Phil Steele's I simply saw the rushing yds...

lol, a guy in my $$$ league yesterday complained about only 1 magazine being available at walmart for him to pick up for the draft...everyone made fun of his phil collins, errrr...phil steeles mag until about 4 people had to borrow his mag since they didn't have Def or IDP's in theirs. I don't ever buy magazines so i've never heard of phil steele, so i know for next year, if i get bored waiting for the season is it a decent read?

I just read his college football preview, it's jammed with a ton of stats and info...pretty good stuff. There is a severe betting undertone to the whole thing but it is good for info.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think Arizona is going to roll SF on Sunday however I expect Norv Turner to just keep plugging along with his offense making it better for later in the season. SF has to know they are rebuilding on defense and are going to give up 30+ points a week. You can't just make Alex SMith throw the ball 40 times a game so i think even when they are behind they are going to run the football to stabalize things.

I was going to say the only thing that stood out from your original post that I strongly disagree with was your optimism for Gore this week, but you've qualified it here. I can't say I agree with what you've deduced from your read on the situation, but at least you've got some reasoning to back it up that isn't crazy. For myself I think Gore will have a tough day against the Cardinals. They were 10th against the run last year as you mentioned and I think with their front 7 back healthy for the first time in a long time they will be even better. I think they'll make stopping the run their first priority and let the 49ers try and beat them with Alex Smith. I'm not high on Gore this week.

Cool Groovus, I just wanted to follow that by saying the SF OL has been severely underrated and I think Gore will find holes to run through...also think they will be decent in pass protections as well...at least long enough for Smith to check down to these 2 TE formations they plan on running.

 

[Jim Otto]

MOP- Why are you down on K. Jones this week? From what I've seen in the preseason. I think he will be a pretty decent #2 this year. Is it the matchup specifically? If so is Seattle just the type of team that will take a lead, thus affecting RB stats from the opposition, or do you see them as strong against the run in general?

Thanks for your views.

 

[diesel7982]

Where did this come from?

Brian Westbrook: An injury risk right now…50/50 as to whether he can play this week or not. I would not start him this week. I think McNabb can pass Philly to a win this week anyways so stay away from Westy till he is at least probable and maybe after you have seen him play a week too.

 

[redman]

I hope Portis can go, without him that offense is going to struggle big time.

If the Washington offense struggles without Portis, that means the D might be on the field a lot. I could see Chester Taylor running up some good 4th quarter numbers against a tired D. Just a thought.

That's not what happened in week 17, 2004. The 'Skins offense was putrid, but the time of possession was even and they shut down the Vikings running game. Note that that game was meaningless for the 'Skins, but that the Vikings were playing for a playoff spot.

 

[mbuehner]

Where did this come from?

Brian Westbrook: An injury risk right now…50/50 as to whether he can play this week or not. I would not start him this week. I think McNabb can pass Philly to a win this week anyways so stay away from Westy till he is at least probable and maybe after you have seen him play a week too.

 

[ALF]

What a great post. I wanted to highlight this one for a few reasons.1. If you are having trouble deciding who to start and Wannabee is not patrolling the ACF for some reason, by all means please come on in and give us what you got. But please take the time as ALF has done to give us some details on what you are thinking about as you head into the games.Try to stay away from...I have x, y, and z...pick 2 for me. This is not gonna get you the results your looking for. Even if you are afraid you might come across like an idiot... I assure you from the many many many dumb things in hindsight I have posted in here, there is no way you can get ridiculed that badly, so just a quick thought will work too.2. Just look at how ALF approached this post. He gave his stable of backs, broke down the games, and then made a decision on what he is going to do. He's gonna get a lot mroe feedback on his opinions with that kind of a post.Alf, I would definitely start Ronnie Brown, JJ as well in week 1...I do think Gore will get a cheap TD at some point. I think Arizona is going to roll SF on Sunday however I expect Norv Turner to just keep plugging along with his offense making it better for later in the season. SF has to know they are rebuilding on defense and are going to give up 30+ points a week. You can't just make Alex SMith throw the ball 40 times a game so i think even when they are behind they are going to run the football to stabalize things.

Thanks for the props.To follow up on the SF comments. I think the offense will improve from last year, not a huge leap considering how bad it was last year. Looking at it from a Gore owners perspective:- The improvement of the oline is a definte plus in favour of Gore.- As to receivers I would say there is a slight upgrade but I am not to excited by the collection of pass catchers. Neutral effect on Gore.- The question mark remains A. Smith. Was last year at all beneficial to his progress as a player? So far I have insufficient evidence to judge. The postives are his preaseason numbers look ok for what it's worth. Being tutored by Norv Turner is a big plus. Downside for A.Smith is a new offense to learn. In term of F. Gore production I think it might hurt him early on as teams will focus on the run until A.Smith proves he can hurt them. That said I think by mid season Smith will pose enough of a threat that it should help Gore's numbers.- Norv Turner is usually a good judge of Rb and they kept Gore. Overall should be a goo bye week filler.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP- Why are you down on K. Jones this week? From what I've seen in the preseason. I think he will be a pretty decent #2 this year. Is it the matchup specifically? If so is Seattle just the type of team that will take a lead, thus affecting RB stats from the opposition, or do you see them as strong against the run in general?Thanks for your views.

Thanks Jim,Let's talk about the Seattle LBs. Because I think after about week 8 or 9 they became one of the hardest teams to run on. Lofa Tatupa is so mature for only being a 2nd year LB...he moves from sideline to sideline as well as you would want from a MLB.Leroy Hill also was a rookie from Clemson, he took over ion about week 8 or 9.They acquired Julian Peterson in the off season. This is now one of the more lethal LB trios you will see in the NFC...not saying it's the absolute best but it's about as rock solid as they come right now.Week 9 @AZ 71 ydsweek10 St Louis 75 ydsWeek 11 SF 110 ydsweek12 NYGiants 166 yds...they got gashed by New York, lot of team did...but then look what happensweek13 @Philly 61 ydsweek14 SF 61 ydsweek15 @Ten 81 ydsweek16 Indy 43 ydsweek17 @GB 68 ydsGranted some of these teams are not world beaters at rushing the football but Seattle does not play a world beater schedule either...they are quickly becoming like a late 80's Nebraska team where the schedule alone almost ensures they do well over the season.Detroit does not run the ball all that well...granted it's a new coaching staff but Martz isn't going to handoff 30 times. KJ for theseason...optimistic...KJ against Seattle...not so much.

 

[ArcticEdge]

Very good post MOP. Just one little correction here:

Barlow/Blaylock/Houston: I heard Blaylock was gonna be cut…he did carry the ball 25 times in the final preseason game, a sure sign a player is on the bubble at best. I heard Cedric Houston was going to be a casualty…but they are both still on the team. I would stay away from the Jets for a week till we get a clear idea who is going to carry the rock there

Cedric Houston carried the ball that last preseason game, 25/108. Blaylock didn't play. I think Blaylock has a decent shot at being the main guy by week 4 or so, never been that high on Barlow.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Very good post MOP. Just one little correction here:

Barlow/Blaylock/Houston: I heard Blaylock was gonna be cut…he did carry the ball 25 times in the final preseason game, a sure sign a player is on the bubble at best. I heard Cedric Houston was going to be a casualty…but they are both still on the team. I would stay away from the Jets for a week till we get a clear idea who is going to carry the rock there

Cedric Houston carried the ball that last preseason game, 25/108. Blaylock didn't play. I think Blaylock has a decent shot at being the main guy by week 4 or so, never been that high on Barlow.

You are correct sir. I left it mainly for people to see we all make mistakes. I want to encourage people to post ideas, slants, opinions, I don't want to have people get their head bitten off for asking a question that some people think is all too easy to answer.You have not done any of this AE, but I'm cool with the fact I didn't type the right name for the 3rd string RB for the New York Jets in their last game of the preseason...totally fine with me.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Where did this come from?

Brian Westbrook: An injury risk right now…50/50 as to whether he can play this week or not. I would not start him this week. I think McNabb can pass Philly to a win this week anyways so stay away from Westy till he is at least probable and maybe after you have seen him play a week too.

From CBSInjury Report

Foot - Questionable for Week 1 at Houston

(Updated - 9/4/06)

Is questionable 50/50? Probable, Questionable, Doubtful, Out...want to break down the percentages attached to each cause I don't think their is an exact science.

Also, do you think Westy will take 100% of the snaps Sunday? How many will Buckhalter get? Is Bucky gonna see any chances around the goal line? Westy was wearing a boot...you think Reid will burn him out in the 1st week after he lost him last season?

Do you think Westy will get 50% of the carries? 75%?

Let's take it from 50/50 whether he plays to a resounding yes he will play. Now what % of the touches for RBs is he gonna get?

 

[mbuehner]

Let's take it from 50/50 whether he plays to a resounding yes he will play. Now what % of the touches for RBs is he gonna get?

That sounds like shaky ground to build the premise on. That may be the theoretical percentage to list a player as, but it doesnt remotely correspond to reality. Anybody want to go back and check if 25% of the players listed as probable last season didnt play? Probably closer to 5%.Westbrook isnt even on the latest injury report. Does that mean he went from a 50/50 chance of playing to 0% chance of not playing in a couple days? If a guy as important as Westy had a 50% of not being able to go, he wouldnt even be practicing and probably would be held out of the firs game regardless.

Dont pay attention to the injury report except as a general guide. Coaches like Belichick put players on there just for kicks. Brady's habitually 'probable' and he never misses a game.

As to the question of how Westbrook is used this week, its going to depend on how the game goes. I gotta think the Eagles will come out trying to run the ball in the first couple series just to establish their offense, but then will try to put some points up early to put the game to bed. If the game is closer than expected Westy and Buckhalter will probably be used extensively (doesnt sound like a great idea to lean to heavily on Buckhalter either btw). This is not a game the Eagles can afford to lose, so if its not a blowout we will probably see something close to the Eagles regular offense.

 

[shadow2k]

A) A lot of the reason that KC's Defense against the run was so good last year was because of the fact that teams knew they could pass on them, and they did so with ease. They were in the bottom 3rd of all NFL teams on nearly every passing statistic.

Somewhat true, but there are a lot of other factors at play.Look at CBS today. They ran a fantasy article on Steven Jackson, talking about how well the Rams did when SJax cracked 100yds. What they fail to talk about is that teams run more when they are winning, to run out the clock. Just saying the Rams are 8-2 (or whatever it was) when SJax gets 100yds is misleading, because if they're down by two TD's in the first, they aren't going to be running much.So did teams not run against KC because they could pass...or because they were losing? KC was a 10-6 team last year, despite not making the playoffs. They held quite a few leads during the year.To me, the better stat is ypc avg. KC allowed 4.1, which was 20th in the league. Below average. But again, other factors play into that, including the passing D. If it's easy to pass, it's easier to run...opens up the lanes, the safeties are back, etc.... If they shore up their pass D this year (they'll have a better pass rush with Hali, better depth at LB, better corner in Law), then that ypc avg should come down. The biggest problem with KC's run D has been tackling though. Guys have been in position, but just not made the play. If Herm has improved upon that (it would be hard not to), they'll be a better rush D than last year. They're also playing an entirely new scheme, so it's really hard to judge. Especially since they played so vanilla for most of the preseason. Game 3 is the only one where they really did anything out of the ordinary, and they looked much, much better, and were making the tackles.Overall, I think they'll be an above average run D this year. I wouldn't sit my studs against them, but I wouldn't consider them soft either.

 

[T-BONE]

Let’s take a look at week 1 and see who has great match ups and who has the tough ones…as always you want to start the studs you drafted.

Atlanta vs Carolina

DeShaun Foster: Atlanta appears as though they are still having trouble stopping the run. I expect DeShaun to get his season started off with a big game. The rushing match up favors the Panthers better than the passing game will. Look for Carolina to pound the football.

Chicago at Green Bay

Thomas Jones: I like this play. He is starting and Cedric is not ready to go as this is being written. Benson may prove to vulture away a lot of carries as the season goes on but I think TJ will have a nice game this week. He has been nursing some injuries as well, still like him against a soft GB defense this week.

I was having a hard time deciding between Foster and TJones.

If you think only about the matchup, TJ is a no brainer.

But recent news says that Cedric is ready to go and will get some carries.

Foster has a not so great, but good matchup.

I like what you write about Foster and it makes a lot of sense to me. I chose Foster.

 

[EzCrash]

Awesome post MoP.

Your insight is appreciated and I'm sure you spent a chunk of your day trying to share it with the rest of us.

Thank you.

 

[Rovers]

Nice post, MoP, and good to see you can admit an error... anyone who is very active, here or elsewhere will make the occassional mistake... but way too many have trouble admitting that simple fact. Props...

My take on the Jets:

Blaylock will start agianst the Titans, and might not be a bad play as third RB in a flex spot. Blaylock has been the starter throughout TC and through the preseason. I seriously doubt that Barlow has a sufficient grasp of the offense just yet, but do expect him to get some straight forward dive carries, and maybe a sweep or two in this game. I don't see where Tennessee has improved the run D much, so Blaylock could get as many as 20 carries and 4 receptions. Something between 20 to 25 touches, I'd say. Barlow could get 5 or so. Leon Washington will get sprinkled in, but perhaps as a slot reciever more than at RB.

I think that Mangini would have gotten Barlow some carries and snaps in the last preseason game if he wanted to use him a lot in week 1. Instead, both Barlow and Blaylock rode pine. Mangini I beleive will try to ease Barlow in as the starter... and if he plays well, could be the starter by week 3 or 4. If Blaylock has a bad game in week 1, it could be earlier for Barlow... even week 2.

Houston is the kicker in this mess. His 25 for 108 and a decent showing at the blitz pick up in preseason game 4 saved his roster spot. He remains a threat to both Blaylock and Barlow down the road, and here is my thinking: Many teams keep 6 RB's... 3 RB's, and 3 FB's. The Jets kept 4 RB's and only 2 FB's. Usually that third FB is a special teams ace, and often all 3 FB's will be on ST's. Neither Houston or Barlow play ST's. They would not have kept Houston unless they saw something, especially given the fact he isn't a ST's player. I think Barlow will be given the chance to prove himself first.... but if he falters, Houston could well get his chance by week 8 or so.

Back on topic, Blaylock could be a nice play this week. I would not want to be betting my success on any Jets RB this year, but as late flyers, Blaylock, Barlow or Houston could provide some bye week depth and injury insurance this year.... the question is, which one? Guess right, and you could have a ninth or tenth round steal.

Personally, my $ is on Houston by week 10.... but I've been wrong before!

 

[moleculo]

A) A lot of the reason that KC's Defense against the run was so good last year was because of the fact that teams knew they could pass on them, and they did so with ease. They were in the bottom 3rd of all NFL teams on nearly every passing statistic.

Somewhat true, but there are a lot of other factors at play.Look at CBS today. They ran a fantasy article on Steven Jackson, talking about how well the Rams did when SJax cracked 100yds. What they fail to talk about is that teams run more when they are winning, to run out the clock. Just saying the Rams are 8-2 (or whatever it was) when SJax gets 100yds is misleading, because if they're down by two TD's in the first, they aren't going to be running much.So did teams not run against KC because they could pass...or because they were losing? KC was a 10-6 team last year, despite not making the playoffs. They held quite a few leads during the year.To me, the better stat is ypc avg. KC allowed 4.1, which was 20th in the league. Below average. But again, other factors play into that, including the passing D. If it's easy to pass, it's easier to run...opens up the lanes, the safeties are back, etc.... If they shore up their pass D this year (they'll have a better pass rush with Hali, better depth at LB, better corner in Law), then that ypc avg should come down. The biggest problem with KC's run D has been tackling though. Guys have been in position, but just not made the play. If Herm has improved upon that (it would be hard not to), they'll be a better rush D than last year. They're also playing an entirely new scheme, so it's really hard to judge. Especially since they played so vanilla for most of the preseason. Game 3 is the only one where they really did anything out of the ordinary, and they looked much, much better, and were making the tackles.Overall, I think they'll be an above average run D this year. I wouldn't sit my studs against them, but I wouldn't consider them soft either.

KC also has to play Denver and LT2 2x per year. That can't help end of year rankings.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Nice post, MoP, and good to see you can admit an error... anyone who is very active, here or elsewhere will make the occassional mistake... but way too many have trouble admitting that simple fact. Props...My take on the Jets:Blaylock will start agianst the Titans, and might not be a bad play as third RB in a flex spot. Blaylock has been the starter throughout TC and through the preseason. I seriously doubt that Barlow has a sufficient grasp of the offense just yet, but do expect him to get some straight forward dive carries, and maybe a sweep or two in this game. I don't see where Tennessee has improved the run D much, so Blaylock could get as many as 20 carries and 4 receptions. Something between 20 to 25 touches, I'd say. Barlow could get 5 or so. Leon Washington will get sprinkled in, but perhaps as a slot reciever more than at RB.I think that Mangini would have gotten Barlow some carries and snaps in the last preseason game if he wanted to use him a lot in week 1. Instead, both Barlow and Blaylock rode pine. Mangini I beleive will try to ease Barlow in as the starter... and if he plays well, could be the starter by week 3 or 4. If Blaylock has a bad game in week 1, it could be earlier for Barlow... even week 2. Houston is the kicker in this mess. His 25 for 108 and a decent showing at the blitz pick up in preseason game 4 saved his roster spot. He remains a threat to both Blaylock and Barlow down the road, and here is my thinking: Many teams keep 6 RB's... 3 RB's, and 3 FB's. The Jets kept 4 RB's and only 2 FB's. Usually that third FB is a special teams ace, and often all 3 FB's will be on ST's. Neither Houston or Barlow play ST's. They would not have kept Houston unless they saw something, especially given the fact he isn't a ST's player. I think Barlow will be given the chance to prove himself first.... but if he falters, Houston could well get his chance by week 8 or so. Back on topic, Blaylock could be a nice play this week. I would not want to be betting my success on any Jets RB this year, but as late flyers, Blaylock, Barlow or Houston could provide some bye week depth and injury insurance this year.... the question is, which one? Guess right, and you could have a ninth or tenth round steal. Personally, my $ is on Houston by week 10.... but I've been wrong before!

Wonderful take on the NYJets. OK here is the thing with Blaylock. He's 5'10" and 190lbs...probably being generous too. He is not a big guy and I don't think he could carry the ball 20 times in a game. He had some injuries last season and had a toal of 17 carries for the whole season...a 7 game season it appears...he did nothing.IN KC he had a 4TD game we all rmemeber, and a 33/186/1 plus 38rec to boot that same season...of course it was the Saints.Barlow has not lived up to snuff but he has done it more often than Blaylock...Kevan is 6'1" 235lbs...doesn't run like it but he's big and can take a workload for a game. I think at best/orst the carries will get split up between the 2 of them.

 

[Rovers]

Nice post, MoP, and good to see you can admit an error... anyone who is very active, here or elsewhere will make the occassional mistake... but way too many have trouble admitting that simple fact. Props...My take on the Jets:Blaylock will start agianst the Titans, and might not be a bad play as third RB in a flex spot. Blaylock has been the starter throughout TC and through the preseason. I seriously doubt that Barlow has a sufficient grasp of the offense just yet, but do expect him to get some straight forward dive carries, and maybe a sweep or two in this game. I don't see where Tennessee has improved the run D much, so Blaylock could get as many as 20 carries and 4 receptions. Something between 20 to 25 touches, I'd say. Barlow could get 5 or so. Leon Washington will get sprinkled in, but perhaps as a slot reciever more than at RB.I think that Mangini would have gotten Barlow some carries and snaps in the last preseason game if he wanted to use him a lot in week 1. Instead, both Barlow and Blaylock rode pine. Mangini I beleive will try to ease Barlow in as the starter... and if he plays well, could be the starter by week 3 or 4. If Blaylock has a bad game in week 1, it could be earlier for Barlow... even week 2. Houston is the kicker in this mess. His 25 for 108 and a decent showing at the blitz pick up in preseason game 4 saved his roster spot. He remains a threat to both Blaylock and Barlow down the road, and here is my thinking: Many teams keep 6 RB's... 3 RB's, and 3 FB's. The Jets kept 4 RB's and only 2 FB's. Usually that third FB is a special teams ace, and often all 3 FB's will be on ST's. Neither Houston or Barlow play ST's. They would not have kept Houston unless they saw something, especially given the fact he isn't a ST's player. I think Barlow will be given the chance to prove himself first.... but if he falters, Houston could well get his chance by week 8 or so. Back on topic, Blaylock could be a nice play this week. I would not want to be betting my success on any Jets RB this year, but as late flyers, Blaylock, Barlow or Houston could provide some bye week depth and injury insurance this year.... the question is, which one? Guess right, and you could have a ninth or tenth round steal. Personally, my $ is on Houston by week 10.... but I've been wrong before!

Wonderful take on the NYJets. OK here is the thing with Blaylock. He's 5'10" and 190lbs...probably being generous too. He is not a big guy and I don't think he could carry the ball 20 times in a game. He had some injuries last season and had a toal of 17 carries for the whole season...a 7 game season it appears...he did nothing.IN KC he had a 4TD game we all rmemeber, and a 33/186/1 plus 38rec to boot that same season...of course it was the Saints.Barlow has not lived up to snuff but he has done it more often than Blaylock...Kevan is 6'1" 235lbs...doesn't run like it but he's big and can take a workload for a game. I think at best/orst the carries will get split up between the 2 of them.

This is exactly why I am down on Blaylock long term. Even little Leon Washington is better between the tackles than Blaylock in (IMHO). Barlow didn't do much behind a bad SF O line, and as a biased Jets fan, I think this O line is better than what SF put on the field the past two years, even with the two rooks. That sort of flies in the face of this factoid: Clement was benched by SF last year, and is now the Jets starting RT! Houston.... I've been rooting for this kid. That thyroid condition set him WAY back last year. He was slow and over wieght, at about 238. He came in this year at 218, and looked to me to be as fast as Blaylock, but the surprising thing was the wiggle he had in that 4th preseason game. He dodged some tackles in the backfield (yes, I know it was against bubble players, but his blockers were bubble players too). I honestly believe he may be the best RB on the roster.... and I really doubt they would have kept him if they didn't think he could emerge, either. If Barlow doesn't establish himself as the clear cut starter.... look out for Houston! Washington is just like Blaylock.... but better. He needs some polish, but I think he's the CoP/3rd down RB long term for the Jets.I don't buy into the idea that either Blaylock or Washington can be feature backs. Most likely, the future feature back is playing his last year of college ball right now.... but Houston is my dark horse.

 

[the spanker]

Nice post MOP and all who have contributed thus far.

You really helped me decide who to start this week between my 4 RBs:

Foster

Gore

Westbrook

KJ

In my book, Westbrook is a must start each week in ppr leagues. I was torn between the other three. Lets hope Foster goes off the way you envision.

Question, I don't have DeAngelo on my team but the owner who has him wants to play hardball. How much would you give to secure the Carolina backfield? WRs are more expendable. Is giving up a Reggie Brown too much?

Or has the fantasy bug bitten me and I'm not thinking clearly at this point?

 

[jdoggydogg]

Question, I don't have DeAngelo on my team but the owner who has him wants to play hardball. How much would you give to secure the Carolina backfield? WRs are more expendable. Is giving up a Reggie Brown too much?

Man, I would give up Brown for Williams in a heartbeat. There are often good waiver wire WR available during the season. There aren't many stud rookie RBs.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Nice post MOP and all who have contributed thus far.You really helped me decide who to start this week between my 4 RBs:FosterGoreWestbrookKJIn my book, Westbrook is a must start each week in ppr leagues. I was torn between the other three. Lets hope Foster goes off the way you envision. Question, I don't have DeAngelo on my team but the owner who has him wants to play hardball. How much would you give to secure the Carolina backfield? WRs are more expendable. Is giving up a Reggie Brown too much?Or has the fantasy bug bitten me and I'm not thinking clearly at this point?

I think Williams is a must for DeShaun owners...Reggie Brown is always expendable on my team but it also depends on what kind of depth you have.

 

[Bbaier]

Cincinnati at Kansas City

Rudi Johnson: This is not as good a match up as some will think. KC was actually very good at keeping the rush in check at home last season…they gave up 200+ yds on the ground to both Denver and NYGiants but those games were on the road. Rudi is an impressive runner and the game Cinci played in week 17 last season where they lost 37-3…you have to throw that out the window. Rudi will cross the goal line but he might only rack up somewhere in the 50-75 yard range as I think this game will be settled thru the air.

How much of this "KC was actually very good at keeping the ruch in check at home" was a function of KC performing better offensively at home and forcing teams to pass more? Do they have a significant split in yards per rush at home vs. the road or were you just looking at aggregate number (i.e. total yards allowed)

I've been a Chiefs fan since before we drafted Todd Blackledge ahead of Dan Marino and Jim Kelly. DOH!Chiefs home field advantage is almost collegiate. It's electric. Chiefs defense has always been much better at home than on road. Not just because offense the clicks better -- that's part of it. But the crowd is so noisy they prevent audible calling near the endzones.

I did a statistical analysis a couple of years ago when I actually would play the Chiefs D at home on my fantasy team. Much larger difference between their statistical average and home average on points allowed and turnovers created.

GREAT ORIGINAL POST by the way. Love the referencing to historical results.

 

[Jim Otto]

Props to MOP for this entire thread.

This is why I come to the Shark Pool year after year.

 

[gheemony]

Great post. It confirms my dilemma. I have to start two from Rudi, McGahee, Droughns, Mike Bell. McGahee and Droughns have the best matchups on paper, but how do you sit your #1 pick?

Anyone disagree that I should go with Rudi and McGahee notwithstanding the good matchup for Droughns?