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RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (1 Viewer)

Zdravko said:
When I read the title, I expected much worse. I don't see much in the video to make one worry...or not worry. Looks like a regular end-of-May catching drill, definitely not full speed, but I wouldn't expect that anyway. Would be helpful if there were similar videos of other players running the same drill to compare. 

I trust your judgment almost blindly on all things Chargers - are you selling or buying on Gordon?
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Yeah, I'm not drawing any conclusions from the video, just posting it for others to see. IMO if you own Gordon, he has to be a hold; I don't see how you can get any value selling him right now. But I don't happen to own him in any leagues, and I'm not buying. :shrug:

 
I'm thinking Brandon Oliver might be the play here.  Cost is basically nothing and it's more a bet against Gordon.  

 
Am I the only one buying on this guy? The team moved up into the first round to get him. They added nothing of significance in the draft to show a lack of confidence in him.  They added a proven offensive coordinator who is bringing in a complementary running style with a fullback. 

In my opinion, last year was a collective crap show. Everybody knows the story about all the injuries on this team. This is a guy, contrary to what everyone (it does feel like nobody likes Melvin) says has the skill set for success. He has the work ethic and I think he will take a big step forward this year. 

 
cmv5 said:
Am I the only one buying on this guy? The team moved up into the first round to get him. They added nothing of significance in the draft to show a lack of confidence in him.  They added a proven offensive coordinator who is bringing in a complementary running style with a fullback. 

In my opinion, last year was a collective crap show. Everybody knows the story about all the injuries on this team. This is a guy, contrary to what everyone (it does feel like nobody likes Melvin) says has the skill set for success. He has the work ethic and I think he will take a big step forward this year. 
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I would be endorsing this narrative, but for one little detail:

microfracture surgery in January.

 
Arodin said:
I would be endorsing this narrative, but for one little detail:

microfracture surgery in January.
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I can understand that but the team has shown they are confident that he will be ready for the season. Like I said, their actions appear to show they are investing in him as their running back. 

Injuries happen, yes, even ones that require microfracture surgery. We can only go off the snippets we get and it sounds like as far as microfracture surgeries go, this was a small repair. 

If there is a running back that I feel is escaping scrutiny it is Jay Ajayi. He is everybody's darling and yet supposedly has a degenerative knee issue and are we going to pretend like Miami didn't sign C.J. Anderson to a contract?

 
You have to think of it this way too: why would they draft a fullback (his college teammate nonetheless) if they weren't going to be featuring Gordon? It makes no sense if they weren't, as using a fullback has no use if you're handing the ball off to Oliver or dumping screens to Woodhead.

 
ShamrockPride said:
You have to think of it this way too: why would they draft a fullback (his college teammate nonetheless) if they weren't going to be featuring Gordon? It makes no sense if they weren't, as using a fullback has no use if you're handing the ball off to Oliver or dumping screens to Woodhead.
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They drafted a FB and signed another UDFA FB because they didn't have one on the roster. I'm sure part of the motivation for it was thinking it will help Gordon.

As I posted right before the microfracture news, things seemed to be trending in a positive direction: Whisenhunt, OL improvements plus presumed better health for OL, legit deep threat WR, and expected use of FB and 2 TE sets more often.

 
I was watching Gordon play against Denver a few days back. He impressed me with his burst and acceleration on a few of his runs. You could see the defenders a bit surprised by this quickness as well as they were trying to adjust to how much ground he covered with just a few steps, you can see them reeling a bit because of it.

Just wanted to share that he did look good against a very good defense.

 
He ran like a girl last year, but his current ADP(#72 overall) does present some value IMHO.  I'll be watching him closely in the preseason.

 
 

Melvin Gordon says he feels more "comfortable" in his second training camp and has no limitations from his surgically repaired knee.
Philip Rivers agreed: "I just felt a more confident guy, a guy that felt a little more comfortable. That's key for a running back. You've got to be hungry and do all those things, but if you're antsy as a runner, you don't see things right." Added Gordon, "I feel comfortable with the playbook. I feel more comfortable with myself. I had a whole year pretty much to figure things out." Gordon's ADP has fallen far enough that he could prove a screaming value if he stays healthy and improves as a sophomore. He usually goes in rounds seven and eight in 12-team drafts.

 
 
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune 
Jul 31 - 10:22 PM
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Gordon broke a long run today but also struggled in pass protection: Chargers Training Camp Notes: August 1, 2016

ETA: Heard some debate about this on Chargers talk radio after work. Hardwick said it was a tough drill that is not representative of game play. Others were not so forgiving. 

 
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Faust said:
Melvin Gordon TD highlights Chargers' 27-10 loss to Titans
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I was excited when I read about this.... and then I saw the play. I fully expect Gordon to be a dominant player on plays where there are no defenders within 20 yards of him when he gets the ball. Why didn't the stupid coaches call that play over and over last season!?!

Seriously though, his 4yards/carry is leaps and bounds better than last season. I dunno what the league average is but I would be pleased if he gets 4y/c this year.

 
BoltBacker said:
I was excited when I read about this.... and then I saw the play. I fully expect Gordon to be a dominant player on plays where there are no defenders within 20 yards of him when he gets the ball. Why didn't the stupid coaches call that play over and over last season!?!

Seriously though, his 4yards/carry is leaps and bounds better than last season. I dunno what the league average is but I would be pleased if he gets 4y/c this year.
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Agree that it was an ideal situation with no defender within 8-10 yards when he caught the ball.  What I did really like is how fluidly he caught the ball and turned upfield and the fact that he found space through three defenders, lowered his head and ran over the last defender.  It wasn't a big collision as the defender was backpedaling but it was good to see those instincts.

 
Chaka said:
Agree that it was an ideal situation with no defender within 8-10 yards when he caught the ball.  What I did really like is how fluidly he caught the ball and turned upfield and the fact that he found space through three defenders, lowered his head and ran over the last defender.  It wasn't a big collision as the defender was backpedaling but it was good to see those instincts.
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I guess. I feel like there shouldn't be a RB in the NFL that can't score there.

 
Ilov80s said:
I guess. I feel like there shouldn't be a RB in the NFL that can't score there.
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I agree.  Not anointing him but after last year it is nice to see him show that receiving ability and instincts.  Even if it is only one play, one preseason play, he did everything right and that is a positive.

 
BoltBacker said:
I was excited when I read about this.... and then I saw the play. I fully expect Gordon to be a dominant player on plays where there are no defenders within 20 yards of him when he gets the ball. Why didn't the stupid coaches call that play over and over last season!?!

Seriously though, his 4yards/carry is leaps and bounds better than last season. I dunno what the league average is but I would be pleased if he gets 4y/c this year.
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A few good things happened on this play that are extremely encouraging as opposed to just seeing it as a no defenders around.

Last year one of the things that surprised most people was how natural Gordon looked catching passes. On this play alone it shows just like last year he caught the ball naturally. He then turned up field and easily out ran the LB in pursuit (showing good burst after the knee injury). There was also a nice little hesitation where he waited for his block up field (patience) and then he ran to daylight pancaking a defender into the end zone (strength).

Gordon did what all great rb's and players do; they spend their off season improving on weaknesses.  Gordon had plenty of weaknesses last year so this off season he reached out to Peterson to worked out with him so he could improve and see what one of the greatest RB's to play does.

He had a bad rookie year, but Gordon is an athletic freak who happened to have a bad rookie year. Lots of time to improve.

LaDaniain Tomlinson rookie year: 3.6 ypc.

Melvin Gordon rookie year: 3.5 ypc.

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
A few good things happened on this play that are extremely encouraging as opposed to just seeing it as a no defenders around.

Last year one of the things that surprised most people was how natural Gordon looked catching passes. On this play alone it shows just like last year he caught the ball naturally. He then turned up field and easily out ran the LB in pursuit (showing good burst after the knee injury). There was also a nice little hesitation where he waited for his block up field (patience) and then he ran to daylight pancaking a defender into the end zone (strength).

Gordon did what all great rb's and players do; they spend their off season improving on weaknesses.  Gordon had plenty of weaknesses last year so this off season he reached out to Peterson to worked out with him so he could improve and see what one of the greatest RB's to play does.

He had a bad rookie year, but Gordon is an athletic freak who happened to have a bad rookie year. Lots of time to improve.

LaDaniain Tomlinson rookie year: 3.6 ypc.

Melvin Gordon rookie year: 3.5 ypc.
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This was a good post until the end when you made an irrelevant comparison to one of the best RBs in NFL history.

 
Just Win Baby said:
This was a good post until the end when you made an irrelevant comparison to one of the best RBs in NFL history.
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It was not intended to mean Gordon will turn into Tomlinson.  It was a note that even one of the greatest rb's in the history of the NFL (who so happened to play on the Chargers as well) struggled to have a good ypc as a rookie.

 
Rookie TRich 3.6 ypc

rookie walter Payton 3.5 ypc

historical comparisons in this context mean almost nothing 

 
Steed said:
Athletic freak? Average to good across the board

http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/melvin-gordon?id=2552469

at his current adp, he'd have to completely flop again to not return value, but if it climbs off this play?  He's off my board as a zero rb candidate when that happens.
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Really splitting hairs.

I personally see a young man like Gordon at 6'1, 215 pounds running a 4.52 forty with a 35 inch vertical and 126 inch broad jump as an athletic freak. Are there some other guys that are more of an athletic freak? Of course.  But Gordon is quite freaky himself.

 
Steed said:
Rookie TRich 3.6 ypc

rookie walter Payton 3.5 ypc

historical comparisons in this context mean almost nothing 
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Agreed. Hence reiterating my point that writing off a rookie RB coming off a down year is not always the most objective of notions. One must take multiple things into account when trying to predict the future.  

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
Really splitting hairs.

I personally see a young man like Gordon at 6'1, 215 pounds running a 4.52 forty with a 35 inch vertical and 126 inch broad jump as an athletic freak. Are there some other guys that are more of an athletic freak? Of course.  But Gordon is quite freaky himself.
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Splitting hairs for sure.  I think after watching him in college, everyone was expecting a 4.40 or better.  No matter, he has the requisite athleticism, does he have the vision?   I'm willing to gamble in the 8th round

 
Most things that people on message boards think are comparisons are not comparisons, but counter-examples (often to unstated inferences).

Pointing out that Gordon and Tomlinson averaged similar yards per carry as rookies is not a comparison of Gordon to Tomlinson. It's a counter-example to the idea that averaging few yards per carry as a rookie means very much going forward. (Nobody explicitly argued that averaging few yards per carry as a rookie means very much going forward, but it was arguably implicit in the post that Carter_Can_Fly was responding to.)

 
Efficiency stats such as YPC are irrelevant in small sample sizes. I was reading a study that found you need something like 2000 carries before you can identify what a players true YPC is and by the time a player gets that much (if they ever do) they will be pretty old and you may see some decline in their ability.

I prefer 3 years of data for projections. Two years I think is a decent sample size. One year really isn't enough.

 
He looked real good last night. The Titans starting NT did not, and he got some nice holes up the middle that made it look easy, but he looked different. There weren't many times during his rookie year that I thought he looked like the player he was in college. I assumed nerves and adjusting to the game and all. While just a small token last night, that's an extremely positive sign for him. 

I don't like their line. If often felt like they made him earn every step in 2015. He's a different player if he gets some space. 

Another impressive performance and he'll be flying up my personal rankings. I expected a more Gurley like 2015 and ...might just be a learning thing and the time is now. 

 
I think Gordon is an example of a player who benefited from good offensive line play. He won't ever see blocking like that or defenses that bad in the NFL. There is an adjustment period involved.

On average a RB rookie season is their worst performing season of the first six years of their career. While there are some RB who emerge right away, and I agree with the premise that it is a quicker transition for a RB than it is for WR or other positions, they are still rookies. 

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Most things that people on message boards think are comparisons are not comparisons, but counter-examples (often to unstated inferences).

Pointing out that Gordon and Tomlinson averaged similar yards per carry as rookies is not a comparison of Gordon to Tomlinson. It's a counter-example to the idea that averaging few yards per carry as a rookie means very much going forward. (Nobody explicitly argued that averaging few yards per carry as a rookie means very much going forward, but it was arguably implicit in the post that Carter_Can_Fly was responding to.)
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I'd say that having a bad ypc, no touchdowns, fumbling problems and a bad knee injury aren't great news. But if people want to say it's a small sample that's there opinion.

 
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voiceofunreason said:
I'd say that having a bad ypc, no touchdowns, fumbling problems and a bad knee injury aren't great news. But if people want to say it's a small sample that's there opinion.
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It was not a good rookie season at all. Quite frankly it was bad all around and no one is saying otherwise.

However, objectively going forward here is what we know as we try to project what Gordon will do. San Diego brought back an offensive coordinator that had success last time he was in San Diego and has claimed he will make Gordon a big part of the offense. We also know that the Chargers will not be faced with nearly as many injuries as last year. If they do that would be bad luck. We also know Gordon trained with Peterson all off season and was willing to actually walk the walk in terms of wanting to get better. Gordon is now entering his 2nd year in the league, and perhaps he learned to be a better pro. Early prognosis all be it in the smallest sample size (one preseason game of minimal touches) at least look positive. 

 
I liked that after reading the word 'microfracture', he showed wheels on that pass play.

Otherwose, he was wide open, caught a ball, and ran down the field.  

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
We also know that the Chargers will not be faced with nearly as many injuries as last year.
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As a Charger fan this is the 4th(5th?) season I have read this. 

After 7 months off they still couldn't start their OL. Kenny Wiggins was their starting OG in the first preseason game. Wiggins shouldn't even be in the league. So those using the "crappy OL" excuse are covered again this year. It's the EXACT SAME LINE as last year with Slauson added at C(which is a good move, but don't forget he was flat out released by another team) and a third round C to replace the last third round C that was a complete washout. 

The way I hear people talk about this OL they act like it's a completely improved unit with better depth. That is simply not the case even if Fluker decided to do a few sit-ups because he's in a contract year. 

 
Biabreakable said:
 I was reading a study that found you need something like 2000 carries before you can identify what a players true YPC is and by the time a player gets that much (if they ever do) they will be pretty old and you may see some decline in their ability.
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Since when is Trent Richardson's agent writing studies? All we need is another decade of games and we'll know whether he's a good RB or not.

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
Last year one of the things that surprised most people was how natural Gordon looked catching passes.
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I agree with this. I was pretty shocked at how quickly he picked up the passing game. In fact I've said in the past they should groom him to take over the Woodhead role in the offense(last year of his contract, will be 32 next season) and should pair Gordon with a between the tackles grinder a la Jeremy Hill. 

 
Chaka said:
Agree that it was an ideal situation with no defender within 8-10 yards when he caught the ball.  What I did really like is how fluidly he caught the ball and turned upfield and the fact that he found space through three defenders, lowered his head and ran over the last defender.  It wasn't a big collision as the defender was backpedaling but it was good to see those instincts.
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It was nice to see he didn't try to finesse it at the GL. You are right in that there wasn't a big collision, but he was prepared for one if it occurred. He certainly seemed to have confidence in the knee. I will be more impressed if the has the same burst when changing direction on the knee though. I actually do like his vision but while others are happy to see his patience for his WR's to block in front of him I felt like his "patience" can be a negative as the defense is much faster in the NFL and I feel like that was his biggest hurdle that he ultimately couldn't overcome last season.

 
Interesting comments from Cosell on Gordon in this article: Greg Cosell: Melvin Gordon needs to learn how to run in the NFL

Melvin Gordon, and I talked about this last year before he even played a down, that I believed he needed to learn to run in the NFL because he was very straight line. When the point of attack was not clean, he really struggled and in the NFL the point of attack is not often clean, certainly not like the way it is in college. And he tended to stop his feet and I think that he has to learn and get more comfortable with how you run in the NFL where the majority of runs take place inside and you've got to be able to run effectively inside and I think that's where again we'll see how he does this year but he needed to really learn and grow in that area.

I think he's a certain kind of runner. I think he's a downhill track runner. He's not really spontaneously agile. He does not have great lateral quickness. He's a downhill track runner. So, those kinds of runners need specific schemes and they need good o-lines. So, Melvin Gordon is not a creator. Melvin Gordon needs a good o-line and a certain kind of run game.
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The good news is that the OL should be better for a few reasons: Slauson is an upgrade, Tuerk is a theoretical upgrade for the bench, Fluker should be better at G with the experience from last year and a full offseason at the position, and one would hope for better health. Note (for @BoltBacker), I am not saying the OL will be great or even average... just better.

And the scheme should be better with Whisenhunt at OC.

On top of that, the Chargers will use a FB some this year, and that should also help.

As long as the knee is sound, IMO he is set to have a much better season than last year. That is a low bar, but still there is reason for optimism.

 
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I agree with Cosell, but I think he has better vision and burst. Completely agree he struggles between the tackles and doesn't seem to understand he needs to get SOMETHING even if it's not blocked for him. That's where I think the Tomlinson comparisons are wildly off base no matter what the YPC is...... Tomlinson consistently got everything the OL would give him and slightly more just by diving forward at the end of his runs. Tomlinson was also faster than Gordon but just as importantly the guys chasing him down were slower than the players are now so he was pretty much better in every way.

Well, Tuerk is future speculation with his own knee injury and some questions if he needs time to bulk up for NFL play. There are people that said he was playing close to 280 pounds last year at USC and I don't want to see what Donteri Poe does with a 280 pounder in front of him. I liked the Tuerk pick but it may not pay off this year.

As far as the "Chris Watt argument", he'll be better because he played there last year, I have NEVER bought it. Still don't. Maybe Fluker will get better... but it's been a steady year after year regression and until I see something different it's hard to have faith in Fluker being even an average NFL starting OLman.

Fluker/Gordon "improving" are certainly possible. How much worse can they play? Franklin should play better too simply by showing up on the field. So far after 7-months of rest he is 0-1 on that score. 

 
Gordon looked a lot better running the ball in the limited sample size from this past game from what I can tell...perhaps the work with AP, adding a FB and other measures taken have helped him out.

I like his value in the 8th round if I'm in need of RB depth.

 
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BoltBacker said:
Since when is Trent Richardson's agent writing studies? All we need is another decade of games and we'll know whether he's a good RB or not.
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You may have heard the phrase regression (or progression) to the mean. Related to this is the concept that each individual player has their own mean that they regress or progress towards.

So the study was focused on that. Trying to find a players true mean in terms of yards per carry. That mean cannot be found until the player has enough volume which was about 2000 rushing attempts.

The point being that one season is not a large enough sample size to find the players average or mean yards per carry. Two seasons might be enough to be reasonably close to that, three years would be a sample I would have more confidence in. 3 years discarding the rookie season stats would be more reliable than that.

 
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