Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I wouldn’t think a first year OC (with SEA) would have all that much influence on the draft.
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RB Rashaad Penny, CAR (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Bojang0301
- Start date
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Maybe not much but I would think they would get his opinion knowing his connection. The reach for Penny is what has me puzzled for a team that has seemingly stronger needs, no 2nd Rounder, and with the RB class looking so deep on paper. This will be an interesting development and potentially a pick that may make or break a GM.
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kutta
Footballguy
That’s probably true. But dang, you would think if the brass was going to draft an RB early they would at least talk to their own OC who coached two very highly rated prospects.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
So are Bama backs perpetually overrated due to their lines they run behind?
Chaka
Footballguy
Lacy absolutely played up to, and beyond his draft position before eating himself out of the league. Ingram has. Drake looks like he may exceed his draft position. Henry has looked the part in limited action and is in a great situation going into this season.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What does Alabama RBs success or non-success have to do with Penny?
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Chaka
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't know. If you put Murray in New Orleans like you said do I get to put Ingram in Dallas? Think that may jade the calculus in 2018?
DeMarco looks like he's done, Ingram looks like he's getting better.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
So, Rashaad Penny. Back OT please.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I realize threads sometimes take on a life of their own (which is fine) but that was one of the weirdest tangents I've seen. Can't figure out how a discussion about Alabama RBs had any relevance at all.
I had the No. 2 pick in one league (traded CMc for it early in the offseason) and had a chance to take Penny, considered it, and then ultimately went with Guice (I felt more comfortable with my evaluation of his talent). I did see him go at 1.02 in another league though.
I do think Penny could find success and I'm very interested to see if Seattle made the right choice.
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Noah Davis
Footballguy
I'm not a Penny believer - and Seattle doesn't have a great track record with those early picks they slide slide and take. They did the same with Richardson and while I think he is a good WR he is not a WR1. Penny is a small school prospect who isn't very proficient at pass blocking on a team with a mediocre line at best. I don't think he is significantly better than Carson or Prosise - so it really depends. If Pete Carroll stays true to his competition ethos and puts the best player on the field i.e. Matt Flynn vs Russel Wilson then Penny does have the shot to win the gig outright. My personal opinion is he isn't the best player on that team right now, but they lean towards justifying the reach by giving him more opportunity.
I think Penny is a good, not great back, and their were multiple options on the board that could be great backs at the point they picked him including: Chubb, Michel, Guice, Rojo, Johnson - I think they are all better talents. Michel is arguably the best pass blocking back in the class and capable in all facets, his biggest risk is his penchant for fumbling the ball.
Summary: I think he gets a lot of opportunity this year with mediocre results but ultimately he's fizzles out in 2-3 years
I think Penny is a good, not great back, and their were multiple options on the board that could be great backs at the point they picked him including: Chubb, Michel, Guice, Rojo, Johnson - I think they are all better talents. Michel is arguably the best pass blocking back in the class and capable in all facets, his biggest risk is his penchant for fumbling the ball.
Summary: I think he gets a lot of opportunity this year with mediocre results but ultimately he's fizzles out in 2-3 years
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Noah Davis
Footballguy
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
Fireinside
Footballguy
Bought him. Paid too much. Happy to see him in Seahawks.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
it started when someone mistakenly said Chubb and Michel played for Alabama. Called them overrated because of the school they went to.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
So @Bojang0301, I think, posted an article about SDSU's dominant, road grading OL and how they have pancaked the MWC for the past number of years.
Does anyone have any info on that? PFR doesn't show starters for college and SDSU has had two guards drafted (both 4th round) over the past two years.
Anyone with more college football knowledge than me have a take on the quality of the SDSU OL over the past five years or so?
Does anyone have any info on that? PFR doesn't show starters for college and SDSU has had two guards drafted (both 4th round) over the past two years.
Anyone with more college football knowledge than me have a take on the quality of the SDSU OL over the past five years or so?
Borden
Footballguy
From reading Twitter comments (always an excellent source for all you information), SDSU was starting 4 freshman last year. It seemed to honest statements from the Penny vs Barkley after contact article.
ZWK
Footballguy
Penny's rate stats are better than Pumphrey's on all of my metrics.
Penny (2015-17) vs. Pumphrey (2014-16)
Yards per att: 7.48 vs. 6.05
First downs per att: 29.2% vs. 24.1%
First downs per first down att: 17.2% vs. 15.3%
20+ yard carries per non-RZ att: 11.1% vs. 7.2%
TDs per RZ att: 26.3% vs. 21.6%
First downs per short yardage att: 76.3% vs. 70.0%
Yards per reception: 11.33 vs. 8.93
Yards per target: 7.91 vs. 7.44
Pumphrey does have the edge in most totals (attempts, receptions, rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns).
Penny (2015-17) vs. Pumphrey (2014-16)
Yards per att: 7.48 vs. 6.05
First downs per att: 29.2% vs. 24.1%
First downs per first down att: 17.2% vs. 15.3%
20+ yard carries per non-RZ att: 11.1% vs. 7.2%
TDs per RZ att: 26.3% vs. 21.6%
First downs per short yardage att: 76.3% vs. 70.0%
Yards per reception: 11.33 vs. 8.93
Yards per target: 7.91 vs. 7.44
Pumphrey does have the edge in most totals (attempts, receptions, rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns).
Dan Hindery
Moderator
I'm very high on Penny (though I definitely understand the OL and OC concerns) and have been grabbing him in every league I can. I think he's going to catch a lot more passes than everyone is projecting. Mostly seeing predictions of 25-30 but he could double those numbers pretty easily.
In terms of pass protection being an issue, it might quietly help his fantasy prospects if they decide to try to get him out in routes more often vs. always asking him to stay in to block. The Seattle offense has looked really good in recent years when they spread with 3 or 4 WRs and then motion the back out and leave Russ back there all alone. They still have the run threat with Russ and usually get a linebacker matched up 1-on-1 with the back. If Penny is good enough to win those matchups, he's going to be a big part of the passing offense
In terms of pass protection being an issue, it might quietly help his fantasy prospects if they decide to try to get him out in routes more often vs. always asking him to stay in to block. The Seattle offense has looked really good in recent years when they spread with 3 or 4 WRs and then motion the back out and leave Russ back there all alone. They still have the run threat with Russ and usually get a linebacker matched up 1-on-1 with the back. If Penny is good enough to win those matchups, he's going to be a big part of the passing offense
Fireinside
Footballguy
Let's say pick between 10-20 and pick between 15-20, both first rounders in a big league. And I don't think it's that much, but I like Carson as I have stated before, I'd rather buy players that don't have competition at all.Dr. Dan said:
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I believe @Chaka was requesting projections in the Carson thread. These are taking me a bit but I got into the NFC West tonight. Projected the Seahawks backfield as:
Penny: 239 car 908 yds 3.8 ypc 5 TD; 45 targets 33 rec 280 yds 2 TD
Carson: 100 car 420 yds 4.2 ypc 4 TD; 20 targets 14 rec 115 yd 0 TD
Prosise/McKissic: 24 car 97 yd 4.0 ypc 0 TD; 35 targets 27 rec 308 yds 2 TD
Willing to answer questions on process. To summarize simply a combination of looking at Carroll and Schottenheimer’s offense plus past production of personnel. I by no means think this is a ceiling for either one should Seattle choose a workhorse. When Carroll was having success his offenses got as high as 57% run to pass but Schottenheimer was actually more balanced than any Bevell offense.
Penny: 239 car 908 yds 3.8 ypc 5 TD; 45 targets 33 rec 280 yds 2 TD
Carson: 100 car 420 yds 4.2 ypc 4 TD; 20 targets 14 rec 115 yd 0 TD
Prosise/McKissic: 24 car 97 yd 4.0 ypc 0 TD; 35 targets 27 rec 308 yds 2 TD
Willing to answer questions on process. To summarize simply a combination of looking at Carroll and Schottenheimer’s offense plus past production of personnel. I by no means think this is a ceiling for either one should Seattle choose a workhorse. When Carroll was having success his offenses got as high as 57% run to pass but Schottenheimer was actually more balanced than any Bevell offense.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I like Penny's talent, but I'm kinda leery of the situation. Their OL sucks. Period. I also don't trust them to use a lone feature back.
Seattle is compounding the problem by passing on guys like Connor Williams & Will Hernandez, both much better fits than Penny, IMO. They simply keep ignoring the problem like it'll eventually go away, LOL. I believe the Seahawks would've been much better off going Williams or Hernandez there & taking advantage of the deep RB class & getting a guy like Jaylen Samuels later.
Sure, I like Penny at the right price, but I prefer Chubb with his cheaper price tag.
Seattle is compounding the problem by passing on guys like Connor Williams & Will Hernandez, both much better fits than Penny, IMO. They simply keep ignoring the problem like it'll eventually go away, LOL. I believe the Seahawks would've been much better off going Williams or Hernandez there & taking advantage of the deep RB class & getting a guy like Jaylen Samuels later.
Sure, I like Penny at the right price, but I prefer Chubb with his cheaper price tag.
Elevencents
Footballguy
Had to read through this thread again after the FBG’s article. Man I am so torn on this kid. And it’s not so much his talent, or where he comes from, but just seems like deja vu all over again in Seattle. Guy looks great on paper. Is being hyped by staff. Is touted to be the bellcow. And whether it’s Carroll, or someone else, they just don’t use them as you expect them to and your left wondering week to week wtf they are gonna do. So whoever it is, that’s the guy I don’t trust.
kutta
Footballguy
Why so bitter? People can have different opinions on players and still be civil. At least most people can.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Right on. I look forward to being the reason you come to the board every three months.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
While I do think Penny is going to be a bust, or at least not live up to the hype, I certainly am not out to come into a thread to say I told you so. I've had to eat a lot of crow over the last 8+ years in here, and I have no problem doing that- we all get things wrong from time to time- but the shark pool is not for pissing contests.
Chaka
Footballguy
Matt Bitonti
Moderator
The OL perspective the Seahawks added D.J. Fluker who is a mauler. Next to Ifedi that could be a good power right side. Tom Cable is gone the line should have more cohesion.
Take those moves with the drafting of Penny in rd1 (high but a historic RB crop), it's a signal the franchise wants to emphasize the running game, perhaps to take pressure off Wilson.
the million $$$ Question is will it work? I can't predict yards or td with any certainty but the powers that be want it to work and will give this player every possible chance to make it work.
Take those moves with the drafting of Penny in rd1 (high but a historic RB crop), it's a signal the franchise wants to emphasize the running game, perhaps to take pressure off Wilson.
the million $$$ Question is will it work? I can't predict yards or td with any certainty but the powers that be want it to work and will give this player every possible chance to make it work.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Dismattle
Footballguy
May I suggest you keep a watchful eye for Penny sucking oxygen on the bench It's probably going to be the closest thing to reality in your post...
Seattle is counting on Rashaad Penny to be more than just a running back.
You better have guys who, when I check the ball down, cam break a tackle and take it 55 yards...
“Two, he makes people miss. He certainly did in college. I’m going to give you two things from Pro Football Focus: One, what incoming running back forced the most missed tackles in college in 2017? Easy answer, Rashaad Penny. Here’s the second question: by how many tackles was he ahead of number two on this list? 29. He was number one with 89 missed tackles forced.” http://sports.mynorthwest.com/495156/most-intriguing-seahawks-rashaad-penny/
DepthCharts
Footballguy
Making 89 guys miss tackles is impressive. If it were power 5 opponents it would hold more water than it does.
signed,
Chris Carson
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
You mean the back who played like a half season in a power 5 and played second fiddle to another back? Let’s not bend narratives and act like Carson has a shiny college pedigree. He’s a small sample size Cinderella. I got lucky myself and was ahead of the curve on Carson last year, so I’m not trying to hate on him. Just blanket dismissing Penny’s accomplishment because he went to SDSU? Well, David Johnson, Marshall Faulk, LT2 and Matt Forte say hi.
Here’s an interesting little tidbit this board should remember when wanting to overcompensate for his situation with Donnell Pumphrey too:
”Before LaDainian Tomlinson became an NFL star, he was running roughshod over WAC defenses. During his freshman season, Tomlinson was eased into action in a platoon with Basil Mitchell. As a sophomore, Patrick Batteaux was also sharing substantial carries in the TCU backfield. By 1999, however, the Horned Frogs had made Tomlinson the focus of their offense.”
Dismattle
Footballguy
Not so fast brah I never really said Carson wasn't gonna potentially eat up the snap count chart Now if we're talking true PPR w/ return yds It could still be night and day difference scoring between CC and Penny
buck naked
Footballguy
If I recall correctly, Kareem Hunt ranked #1 in elusiveness his Senior year in college according to PFF. Then, last year he ranked extremely high in the NFL in the same ranking or in missed tackles. Power 5 opponent argument is very overrated, IMO.
Pointing out a single outlier is not proof of anything, but it certainly warrants further investigation. What about the guys ranked #2-5? What about previous years #1?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Man... people are getting antsy for football. either that or the in-season posters are starting to trickle in. Lots of nitpicky outlier stuff going on lately in these threads: "if you take this one game out he averaged ____" or the quote you were responding too. This type of argument proves nothing, as you said.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't have a horse in this race but I have a hard time seeing how a team with so many holes takes a RB in Round 1 without the intention of making him their feature back.
I suppose Chris Carson could make it a difficult decision and/or ultimately hold Penny off - but I have to think Penny was (at least mentally) penciled in as the starter as soon as he was drafted.
I suppose Chris Carson could make it a difficult decision and/or ultimately hold Penny off - but I have to think Penny was (at least mentally) penciled in as the starter as soon as he was drafted.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
tangfoot said:
I fail to see how that was “nit-picky” or “outlier”. That stat was used in the Ronald Jones thread to argue his validity earlier this offseason. The guy is correct, the small school argument is stinky BS. Attack and judge the player, not where he played. Plenty of early round small school players have succeeded and at an extremely high level. I’ve posted plenty of advanced metrics that reflect the very same thing this guy was saying about Hunt and when it’s dismissed it’s because “oh, well, SDSU”. I fail to see how that is a valid argument against something like how Graham Barfield’s work on yards created, JJ Zacharisan’s work on final season college production vs. first NFL season production and PFF’s elusiveness rating and overall draft package.Dr. Dan said:
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Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Also, I believe even the top fantasy analysts are reading this team wrong for the RB position. I would be more amicable about taking Carson as a hedge over avoiding Seattle all together. Schottenheimer has only had a RB with under 200 carries in a season twice (Tre Mason’s rookie season and Leon Washington’s rookie season). Thomas Jones posted carries of 310, 290 and 331 in NYJ, Shonn Green a 250 carry season, SJax a 248 car and Zac Stacy a 250 carry season. He may not be a good coordinator, I may think that approach is stupid and it may be highly inefficient but someone is going to get a bunch of carries in Seattle this year.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I'm curious how do you grade Fluker as a run blocker?
I recall in recent discussion with JWB who is a Charges fan the subject of San Diegos offensive line being poor at run blocking according to multiple sources and that perhaps contributing to Melvin Gordons low yards per carry.
Was Fluker a lone bright spot for run blocking on their offensive line? Or was he just average?
The Seahawks offensive linemen have played poorly for some time now, so it maybe doesn't take more than a average run blocker for it to be an upgrade, I am just wondering what kind of an upgrade does Fluker provide compared to what they had before?
I get the buzz word mauler tends to be related to run blocking, but not always. A guy who has strong hands and once he latches on your going for a ride. He certainly had such a reputation at the college level and as a prospect, I just wonder if that has actually carried over at the NFL level or not, in your opinion.
A few years back I had some people touting Tom Cable as a genius of offensive line coaching and development. Maybe he was at some point, but it does not seem so anymore. Do you see his replacement Mike Solari as an upgrade?
I would agree that the scheme is going to be much the same as reading this I see that Tom Cable basically kept most of the ZBS they were using under Solari in 2008 so it isn't much of a change.
